23/05/2014 The Papers


23/05/2014

No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - Martine Croxall presents a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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easy beepers and managing director spoke about him yesterday, that is

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all in Sportsday in 15 minutes after The Papers.

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will bring us

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tomorrow. With us, to Hugh Muir, diary editor of the Guardian and Sue

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Matthias, editor of the FT Weekend Magazine. Thank you for joining us.

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Tomorrow's front pages: The Independent shows a cheerful

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Nigel Farage, celebrating the local election results.

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It's much the same on the front of the Daily Mail, the paper reporting

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that the Shadow Cabinet's turned on Ed Miliband following the polls.

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Nigel Farage is on the front of the Express. The main story though is

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the discovery of a protein that could protect against dementia. The

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FT's lead is the paper's investigation into the French

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economist who got his sums wrong in his bestselling book on the economy.

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Nigel Farage is a hurricane, says the i, reporting that the era of

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four`party politics has begun in Britain.

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The discovery of the Cheeki Rafiki's hull in the Atlantic leads the Daily

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Mirror. Labour's been thrown into poll

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crisis by the local election results, says the Telegraph. And,

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little mention of the elecitions in the Times ` the paper leads with its

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report on the supermarket chiefs who ignore expiry dates on the foods

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they eat at home. There is only one place to begin,

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isn't there, after the huge changes to the landscape, politically,

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thanks to UKIP's showing in the English local elections. If we start

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with the Independent, phage crashes the party. Savouring the moment with

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his typical pint. `` Nigel Farage crushes the party. He is holding his

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pint and it looks like he is involved in an act of worship! If

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you want to escape from him, don't look at any of the papers tomorrow

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because that would be a vain hope. They have used strange pictures. On

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the Daily Mail, they have him looking a bit like a gargoyle. I am

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not sure why they chose that picture. He will be a happy man

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today. 17% of the vote, they took, although strangely he will want to

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know what happened in London. London seems to have been very different.

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17% everywhere else, just 7% in London. One of his spokespeople sort

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of suggested it is because people are younger and better educated. I

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think London will be a lost cause for him, but he won't be sad about

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that. He can just go east to Essex, which seems to be becoming more of a

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stronghold for him. We have gone through successive elections where

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Essex has been the weather vane for what is going to happen in the rest

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of the country. If he is doing well there, he will be quite happy. It

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gives the main parties a lot to think about. We hear this every time

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there is an upset, but it is how they turn things around before the

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general election. That is true. If Nigel Farage is looking happy, well,

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he would be. He can drink his pint in the knowledge that he has

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completely wrong`footed the main parties. Tonight, they will be

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trying to work out what on earth they are going to do. What they are

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going to do to meet this challenge. What is interesting is that Nigel

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Farage does not have to do much at all. All that he has to do is stand

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back. He has a very simple message, which has been very well delivered

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by him. One is Europe, one is immigration. He does not have to go

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any further than that. Many discontented voters see in him a

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voice of common sense and somebody who is at least appearing to give a

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direct message. You can't say that about the other parties. They will

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simply have too just what they are doing to victory. I agree with a lot

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of that. I don't think there is too much that he has to do, but the

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other parties are going to have to work out how to cope with him. There

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is an analysis in the Daily Mail by Professor Anthony King and he says,

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now the other parties know they have to take UKIP seriously, but how they

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cope with it is another matter. They cannot keep dismissing them as

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fruitcakes and loonies, if those are the votes they need to claw back

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from UKIP. My theory is that having established is two simple messages

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over immigration and Europe, it is very difficult for the other parties

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to take him on with more sophisticated messages. I don't

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think they have found a formula for that, and it is going to be very

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difficult. We are told by many politicians that immigration is good

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for the country, that there are many benefits to staying in the European

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Union, even if we renegotiate our relationship with it. And yet for

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many people it is the appeal of UKIP against those messages which is why

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they have done so well. Let's move on to the Daily Mail. The savaging

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of Ed Miliband, talking about how none of the main parties are happy

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with these results, even though, as we were saying, Labour gained 290

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seats. On a normal day, they would be pleased with that. How much extra

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thinking, of all of the leaders, has Ed Miliband got to do? Because some

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of his own party have been critical of how he has approached this

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campaign. Absolutely. They seem to be queueing up to have a bit of a go

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at him tonight. It is just part of the bigger picture for him, really,

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which is that he doesn't seem to be able to cut through with a message

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for the voters that the voters can receive and understand. I think what

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is interesting is that it ties into what we were saying before which is

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that because of the Nigel Farage factor, the UKIP factor, it is

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asking questions of all the other parties, how they are going to

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respond. And Ed Miliband has the problem that he is not communicating

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anyway. I think that those around him are beginning to get seriously

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worried about how he is going to get it together in time for the next

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election. One of his MPs was saying it was an unprofessional campaign.

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There are a few quotes and some of the stories about the bacon butty

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incident, when he was photographed trying to eat a bacon butty and it

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was not rather elegant. Some people say that was part of the

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unprofessional campaign that he ran. I think he has a problem. I think

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they are being a bit skittish, because there is a basic philosophy

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here that, if things stay as they are, then the boundary situation,

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the seats means that the Tories have got a real mountain to climb to

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catch him anyway. So I think he has almost a steady as you go policy,

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and that is what is worrying them. Even if they agree with the

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strategy, what is worrying them is that they want to see more

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connection, and I think they want to see more energy. Because connection

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is all that you get from Nigel Farage. He is pure connection.

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Trying to compare their man with what Nigel Farage give the

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electorate has got them worried. Let's look at the pressure on the

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prime minister on the inside of the Daily Mail, pressure in the form of

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should the Conservatives do a deal with UKIP? The noises we are hearing

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from the Conservatives is that there is no need for that and they are

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going for an all`out win in a year's time. But how tempting would

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it be to do that, just to make sure? Yes, yes. It was quite interesting

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in the run`up to the election that the Tories seemed to have this

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uprising outbreak of unity, which is very unfamiliar for them at the

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moment. But in the face of this result, you noticed tonight the

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first thing David Cameron is doing is talking about, we must look at

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this, look at that, we must consider immigration. Again, the same theme,

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he is trying to appease the idea that they have been upstaged by

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UKIP. He is saying that he is not going to tack to the right, and most

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of the commentators seem to think that he will not not yet. In the

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immediate aftermath of an election, everyone gets skittish. We see

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Labour getting skittish and criticising their leader. Already,

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there are some Tories talking about doing a deal with UKIP. I don't

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think they can. There are already some Lib Dem activists asking if

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they are sure about Nick Clegg. There is an inevitability about it.

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What will happen with the Conservative Party is that those

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people who are thinking about the immediate future and those who are

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thinking about the long`term future. In the immediate future he could do

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a deal with UKIP and that might help in the next election. In the

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long`term future, for the sort of voters that the Tories have to pick

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up, and they have talked about needing minorities, more women, is

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that going to be helped by a close association with UKIP? Probably not.

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And there are dangers in extrapolating to national elections.

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Absolutely. David Cameron and Ed Miliband are thinking tonight, it is

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all going to go away, it won't make a difference when we are playing for

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real. Damning report on universal credit

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hushed up. The Government published its annual review into the progress

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of 200 projects, representing ?400 billion of public spending, not

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amongst them the damning internal assess am of universal credit. It

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will not be ready on time. It's all very unrealistic, by the sounds of

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it? Do you remember those happy days, not so long ago, when

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"transparency" would be the watchword of the Government. They

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have the evaluation, they tell us everything, apart from the bit we

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need to know, which is what is happening with this universal credit

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scheme. It's another ` there seem to be a succession of problems coming

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out of DWP. Iain Duncan Smith keeps going to select committees or to the

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House saying it's all going fine. Then something else leaks to give

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you the impression that it's not going fine. Then you put alongside

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the universal credit debacle, the universal job search website, that

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has had problems too. You just wonder whether or not they've taken

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off more than they chew, in terms of bringing these reforms through. They

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don't seem to be able to drive them through efficiently. Are enormous

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changes, is that all it is? Who knows. This story is extraordinary.

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Who realised there was something called The Major Projects Authority.

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You learn something new every night. The fact that Iain Duncan Smith is

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kind of refusing to acknowledge the truth and sort of trying to deny the

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inevitable and standing up and saying ` it's Allardyce right `` all

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all right, I'm in charge. Now the FT. He did his sums wrong. They have

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been looking at Piketty's sums. Has been flavour of the month for about

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a month, I think. It might have been a bit longer. He's a, sort of,

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described as the "rock star" French economist. He has ` he is the author

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of a best seller book called Capital in the 21st Century. One of his main

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arguments in the book is a calculation about the rise of

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inequality. And, I believe that one of his main contentions is that

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we're seeing levels of inequality now which have not been observed

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since the First World War. And, this has been taken as, lorded as, you

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know, revealing the central contradiction of capitalism. He has

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been garlanded by Nobel Laureates all over the place. The FT did a

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study, crunched the number against, and discovered that he actually has

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it wrong. The numbers don't stack up ` No, they don't. The actual date

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for the rise inequality hasn't been rising since 1970. George Osborne

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will be pleased? It will be a problem. There will be people who

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had a vested interest in undermining his case. It was probably the most

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fullfronted assault on capitalist theory as we know it there has been

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for some time. The FT have above the picture in large letters "Piketty

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did his sum wrongs" in the text it says, "he appears to have his sums

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wrong" that is very wise. Everybody will be checking his calculations

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but the FT calculations. Their punches a little bit. That is it for

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The Papers this hour. Sue and Hugh will be back with us at 11.30pm.

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Stay with us on BBC News. At 11.00pm more on the local elections. More, I

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hear you say! Yes, more. Coming up next, it's time for Sportsday.

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