03/08/2014 The Papers


03/08/2014

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presidents pay tribute to the fallen soldiers of the First World War, 100

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years after Germany declared hostilities against France.

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing

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us tomorrow. Sitting worryingly close to each other, that daily

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Mirror's deputy political editor James Lyons and the Daily

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Telegraph's senior correspondent Christopher Hope. I can't work out

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the pecking order! Tomorrow's front pages: The Independent says UKIP

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could force Labour out of many key seats.

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The Metro leads on the air strike at the school in Gaza.

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The Guardian has the same story and a picture of the Common Wealth games

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closing ceremony. Short and sweet. Let's start with

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the Independent. A political story for you to get your teeth into.

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"Miliband warned of UKIP threat to Labour majority". An academic warns

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of the right`wing party's potential to take working`class

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constituencies. I remember reading last week about another piece of

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work that said UKIP only needed to take 9% of the vote in the general

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election and it would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street. That's

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what Ed Miliband's team believe and hope but the truth about UKIP, which

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some of the Labour Party may have been slow to wake up too, is that

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they can cause mayhem for all of the parties. They're taking away votes

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from the Lib Dems, for goodness' sake stop if you can imagine the

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type of person who goes from voting Nick Clegg at the last election to

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Nigel Farage on this one... Those people do exist and they are a

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problem for the Lib Dems. This highlights that there are seats,

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predominantly in traditional working class Labour seats where UKIP will

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pose a big threat and competition come the next election. They've

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singled out one here, Ashfield, where Glorietta Piero is the one of

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the rising stars of labour. `` Gloria Di Piero. I think she will be

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safe because she's working extra hard. There are places like great

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Grimsby where Austin Mitchell, or Austin Haddock as he was known when

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he changed his name briefly, where they could cause a problem. The

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danger for Labour is that those people who they've attracted from

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the Conservatives will be tempted to go back to the Conservatives as the

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election gets nearer because they don't want Ed Miliband Downing

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Street and they may hold on Labour votes and then shed the Tories. If

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UKIP to such a diverse section of voters, nobody is really going to

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going to want to state clearly what the outcome is going to be. You

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could call them the "none of the above" party. They are protest party

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and will eat into both parties. Be wary of any of these national

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projections. They need to win 24% of the vote to get an MP, so it is a

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low starting base. What they are banking on is doing really well in

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the East Midlands and the coastal areas, where they have strong

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council support from the May elections and the year before last.

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They may try to get a handful of MPs. Any opinion poll at this stage

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is too far out, isn't it, to be trusted? They always used to say

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that whoever is ahead of Christmas will win so let's wait and see what

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happens at Christmas. What's happened in British politics is

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we're seeing a real fracturing where it isn't just UKIP the shrug of the

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greens are taking votes away from the Lib Dems and Labour. It's going

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to be very difficult for anyone to get a majority. Everyone is

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expecting a hung parliament as the most likely outcome. You could

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rewrite that introduction to say "Tory victory" quite easily and it

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could equally be true. Thanks for saying that. Let's look ahead to the

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commemorations here and in other parts of Europe tomorrow of the

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beginning of the First World War. The picture is of headstones at a

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British ceremony in France and the quote at the top is extremely

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moving. "I look from time to time at the pictures my father's mate posted

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him from France. Come and join us, they wrote. They all died in the

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war, my father's friends. " It will be a sombre day tomorrow and normal

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politics will be suspended because tomorrow is a huge day. The idea of

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lamps going out across Europe is interesting, to symbolise this huge

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sacrifice 100 years ago. A lot of encouragement on social media for

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people to take part and show their respects. It is a great way to try

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to make a connection. Particularly for younger people and kids today,

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because it isn't like there are people alive now who can tell them

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about a first hand so it's important to do something dramatic for them to

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Copperhead. Let's look at the Metro. UN outrage as Gaza school is hit

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again. The secretary general cause the strike criminal. The US State

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Department say they are appalled at the attack. This seems much stronger

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language from both the UN and the US. Yes, the UN has been sounding

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pretty tough on this for a while and the US has worded some of the more

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tragic incidents such as this one but this is definitely a toughening

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of the line from the British government. People have seen Ed

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Miliband calling on the Government to step up to the mark, stand up to

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Israel and say what is happening in Gaza is an acceptable and calling

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out David Cameron. That's led to a huge political row today but we saw

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Philip Hammond coming out and using rather stronger language than he

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might have done had Ed Miliband not stood up and said what he did. He

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was on it and early, Miliband, to be fair to him. He went out to Israel

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last year and he has been really firm on this story, trying to sound

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out... His trip was in stark contrast to the Prime Minister's,

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the trip the Prime Minister did quite recently. He stood up and gave

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a speech in the Connecticut, the Israeli parliament, which was

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completely uncritical and had no tough messages. `` in the Knesset.

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There wasn't a word about the need to engage. Isn't it easier for the

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leader of the is to say those things than the Prime Minister? Yes, he can

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because the UK is obviously looking to the US for their support for

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Israel and wondering what he can get away with saying. The pictures are

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so appalling, it's hard. It's hard to be critical of Ed Miliband for

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raising it. I appreciate it's hard to play politics with it but it

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speaks to some of the horrors felt by people. David Cameron was saying

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very similar things in 2006 when he was in opposition. The thing that

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struck me was the sense of disbelief expressed by the UN workers that it

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was another school, despite the fact that 33 times the UN has explained

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where the ball are, or where they congregated, and yet still this

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supposedly accurate shelling as... There are credible reports that

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Hamas are using these schools as weapons dumps and to fire rockets

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from there into Israel. Israel say that they've had intelligence that

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there was a terrorist on a motorbike that they were trying to target and

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everything has got caught up. It's hard to... It easy for us here to

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try to rationalise things. It's just read full, really. Israel are

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pushing that very hard against the footage we're seeing, justifying

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last night's suggestion that a soldier had been taken hostage and

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then the soldier turned out to have died. That was a story on the BBC

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and other networks today, saying, was that really the case? It's a PR

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battle as much as anything else for Israel to try to keep going without

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upsetting America any more. The guardian paper has a story about

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women's refuges being closed and support for the most honourable

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women and children being put back by almost 40 years. And this is before

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all of the cuts starting to bite. This is a council cut so although

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they are trying to make it into a western story, with a picture of

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Theresa May, it is choices made by councils. This is a council

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decision. The Guardian has pulled together a number of councils who

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have closed the centres and take on local choices. If you were a

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conservative, you would be saying this was an example of localism and

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local priorities. If you've had a 25 present budget cut, which councils

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across Britain have, and the Government are refusing to ring

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fence the money for this kind of facility, if you are forcing town

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hall chiefs to make a choice between providing social care for vulnerable

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and elderly people or social workers to protect children and this kind of

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provision, that isn't really a choice. The first ones you mentioned

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and statutory. The rules around social care are being rewritten, as

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you know, about what level of help you are allowed. It's being

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rewritten as we speak and a lot less people will get care because of it.

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There's also the question of the level of provision for vulnerable

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children. There is a suggestion from this article that some of these safe

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houses are being closed because they don't take in male victims. I don't

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know how easy it is to have male and female victims in the same place. I

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couldn't see explained in the copy we have here is why a woman's refuge

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would have to take men. Further into the article it says a new focus is

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on providing accommodation for male victims, which has led to funding

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being cut for women's refuges. It is right that we acknowledge that men

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can be victims of this kind of abuse that it is awful that you have to

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make a choice between one gender or another. While not dismissing it in

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anyway, the numbers of men who fall victim to this are much smaller so

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there is clearly an issue around how you provide that kind of protection.

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But what happens to these women and children who have nowhere to go?

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Potentially they'll have to stay in a place where they are in danger.

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I'm sure there will be some sort of temporary provision like B It's

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difficult. The answer might be to make this area statutory so that it

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isn't subject to these whims of a counsellor. It's difficult. Not a

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lot of levity in the papers of late so let's give thanks to the

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Commonwealth Games and a glittering finish with Kylie Minogue in an

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extraordinary pair of boots and a headdress. Chris was glued to

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Kylie's boots before we came on! He didn't know any of the tunes that he

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liked the boots. Not a look that many of us can pull off! After the

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Gold Rush, the game store to a close and the president of the

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Commonwealth Games Federation says it is the best Games ever. It had to

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be after India. That one went over budget and was a bit of a disaster.

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This has been a really good kart games and we should be proud of it

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and England won the medals table. It did indeed! It sounded like Glasgow

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was a great place to be a visitor. It sounded buzzing. I was very

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envious listening to and watching the coverage and remembering what it

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was like to be privileged enough to be in London during the Olympics. It

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completely tipped it down today! Apparently there were binmen on

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parade at the closing ceremony. I loved the tea cakes at the opening

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ceremony so I would have liked to catch those! No sooner have they

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closed than we are starting to talk about legacy. Will we see much of

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that? The question is still hanging over the Olympic Games. Slightly

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different in that they were using a lot of existing infrastructure

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there, not building the same big, new stadiums. One of the depressing

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thing is, or disappointing things, about the Olympics is the fact that

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here we are after hosting such a magnificent Games and people are

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less active and doing less sport. That's it for The Papers this hour

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but James and Christopher will be back with us again, we think, at

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11:30pm but it all depends on the camera crew games on the closing

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ceremony and the news but we'll be here doing something. Stay with us.

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At 11pm, more on the suspected Israeli missile strike close to the

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UN run school in Gaza.

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