03/08/2014 The Papers

presidents pay tribute to the fallen soldiers of the First World War, 100

years after Germany declared hostilities against France.

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be bringing

us tomorrow. Sitting worryingly close to each other, that daily

Mirror's deputy political editor James Lyons and the Daily

Telegraph's senior correspondent Christopher Hope. I can't work out

the pecking order! Tomorrow's front pages: The Independent says UKIP

could force Labour out of many key seats.

The Metro leads on the air strike at the school in Gaza.

The Guardian has the same story and a picture of the Common Wealth games

closing ceremony. Short and sweet. Let's start with

the Independent. A political story for you to get your teeth into.

"Miliband warned of UKIP threat to Labour majority". An academic warns

of the right`wing party's potential to take working`class

constituencies. I remember reading last week about another piece of

work that said UKIP only needed to take 9% of the vote in the general

election and it would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street. That's

what Ed Miliband's team believe and hope but the truth about UKIP, which

some of the Labour Party may have been slow to wake up too, is that

they can cause mayhem for all of the parties. They're taking away votes

from the Lib Dems, for goodness' sake stop if you can imagine the

type of person who goes from voting Nick Clegg at the last election to

Nigel Farage on this one... Those people do exist and they are a

problem for the Lib Dems. This highlights that there are seats,

predominantly in traditional working class Labour seats where UKIP will

pose a big threat and competition come the next election. They've

singled out one here, Ashfield, where Glorietta Piero is the one of

the rising stars of labour. `` Gloria Di Piero. I think she will be

safe because she's working extra hard. There are places like great

Grimsby where Austin Mitchell, or Austin Haddock as he was known when

he changed his name briefly, where they could cause a problem. The

danger for Labour is that those people who they've attracted from

the Conservatives will be tempted to go back to the Conservatives as the

election gets nearer because they don't want Ed Miliband Downing

Street and they may hold on Labour votes and then shed the Tories. If

UKIP to such a diverse section of voters, nobody is really going to

going to want to state clearly what the outcome is going to be. You

could call them the "none of the above" party. They are protest party

and will eat into both parties. Be wary of any of these national

projections. They need to win 24% of the vote to get an MP, so it is a

low starting base. What they are banking on is doing really well in

the East Midlands and the coastal areas, where they have strong

council support from the May elections and the year before last.

They may try to get a handful of MPs. Any opinion poll at this stage

is too far out, isn't it, to be trusted? They always used to say

that whoever is ahead of Christmas will win so let's wait and see what

happens at Christmas. What's happened in British politics is

we're seeing a real fracturing where it isn't just UKIP the shrug of the

greens are taking votes away from the Lib Dems and Labour. It's going

to be very difficult for anyone to get a majority. Everyone is

expecting a hung parliament as the most likely outcome. You could

rewrite that introduction to say "Tory victory" quite easily and it

could equally be true. Thanks for saying that. Let's look ahead to the

commemorations here and in other parts of Europe tomorrow of the

beginning of the First World War. The picture is of headstones at a

British ceremony in France and the quote at the top is extremely

moving. "I look from time to time at the pictures my father's mate posted

him from France. Come and join us, they wrote. They all died in the

war, my father's friends. " It will be a sombre day tomorrow and normal

politics will be suspended because tomorrow is a huge day. The idea of

lamps going out across Europe is interesting, to symbolise this huge

sacrifice 100 years ago. A lot of encouragement on social media for

people to take part and show their respects. It is a great way to try

to make a connection. Particularly for younger people and kids today,

because it isn't like there are people alive now who can tell them

about a first hand so it's important to do something dramatic for them to

Copperhead. Let's look at the Metro. UN outrage as Gaza school is hit

again. The secretary general cause the strike criminal. The US State

Department say they are appalled at the attack. This seems much stronger

language from both the UN and the US. Yes, the UN has been sounding

pretty tough on this for a while and the US has worded some of the more

tragic incidents such as this one but this is definitely a toughening

of the line from the British government. People have seen Ed

Miliband calling on the Government to step up to the mark, stand up to

Israel and say what is happening in Gaza is an acceptable and calling

out David Cameron. That's led to a huge political row today but we saw

Philip Hammond coming out and using rather stronger language than he

might have done had Ed Miliband not stood up and said what he did. He

was on it and early, Miliband, to be fair to him. He went out to Israel

last year and he has been really firm on this story, trying to sound

out... His trip was in stark contrast to the Prime Minister's,

the trip the Prime Minister did quite recently. He stood up and gave

a speech in the Connecticut, the Israeli parliament, which was

completely uncritical and had no tough messages. `` in the Knesset.

There wasn't a word about the need to engage. Isn't it easier for the

leader of the is to say those things than the Prime Minister? Yes, he can

because the UK is obviously looking to the US for their support for

Israel and wondering what he can get away with saying. The pictures are

so appalling, it's hard. It's hard to be critical of Ed Miliband for

raising it. I appreciate it's hard to play politics with it but it

speaks to some of the horrors felt by people. David Cameron was saying

very similar things in 2006 when he was in opposition. The thing that

struck me was the sense of disbelief expressed by the UN workers that it

was another school, despite the fact that 33 times the UN has explained

where the ball are, or where they congregated, and yet still this

supposedly accurate shelling as... There are credible reports that

Hamas are using these schools as weapons dumps and to fire rockets

from there into Israel. Israel say that they've had intelligence that

there was a terrorist on a motorbike that they were trying to target and

everything has got caught up. It's hard to... It easy for us here to

try to rationalise things. It's just read full, really. Israel are

pushing that very hard against the footage we're seeing, justifying

last night's suggestion that a soldier had been taken hostage and

then the soldier turned out to have died. That was a story on the BBC

and other networks today, saying, was that really the case? It's a PR

battle as much as anything else for Israel to try to keep going without

upsetting America any more. The guardian paper has a story about

women's refuges being closed and support for the most honourable

women and children being put back by almost 40 years. And this is before

all of the cuts starting to bite. This is a council cut so although

they are trying to make it into a western story, with a picture of

Theresa May, it is choices made by councils. This is a council

decision. The Guardian has pulled together a number of councils who

have closed the centres and take on local choices. If you were a

conservative, you would be saying this was an example of localism and

local priorities. If you've had a 25 present budget cut, which councils

across Britain have, and the Government are refusing to ring

fence the money for this kind of facility, if you are forcing town

hall chiefs to make a choice between providing social care for vulnerable

and elderly people or social workers to protect children and this kind of

provision, that isn't really a choice. The first ones you mentioned

and statutory. The rules around social care are being rewritten, as

you know, about what level of help you are allowed. It's being

rewritten as we speak and a lot less people will get care because of it.

There's also the question of the level of provision for vulnerable

children. There is a suggestion from this article that some of these safe

houses are being closed because they don't take in male victims. I don't

know how easy it is to have male and female victims in the same place. I

couldn't see explained in the copy we have here is why a woman's refuge

would have to take men. Further into the article it says a new focus is

on providing accommodation for male victims, which has led to funding

being cut for women's refuges. It is right that we acknowledge that men

can be victims of this kind of abuse that it is awful that you have to

make a choice between one gender or another. While not dismissing it in

anyway, the numbers of men who fall victim to this are much smaller so

there is clearly an issue around how you provide that kind of protection.

But what happens to these women and children who have nowhere to go?

Potentially they'll have to stay in a place where they are in danger.

I'm sure there will be some sort of temporary provision like B It's

difficult. The answer might be to make this area statutory so that it

isn't subject to these whims of a counsellor. It's difficult. Not a

lot of levity in the papers of late so let's give thanks to the

Commonwealth Games and a glittering finish with Kylie Minogue in an

extraordinary pair of boots and a headdress. Chris was glued to

Kylie's boots before we came on! He didn't know any of the tunes that he

liked the boots. Not a look that many of us can pull off! After the

Gold Rush, the game store to a close and the president of the

Commonwealth Games Federation says it is the best Games ever. It had to

be after India. That one went over budget and was a bit of a disaster.

This has been a really good kart games and we should be proud of it

and England won the medals table. It did indeed! It sounded like Glasgow

was a great place to be a visitor. It sounded buzzing. I was very

envious listening to and watching the coverage and remembering what it

was like to be privileged enough to be in London during the Olympics. It

completely tipped it down today! Apparently there were binmen on

parade at the closing ceremony. I loved the tea cakes at the opening

ceremony so I would have liked to catch those! No sooner have they

closed than we are starting to talk about legacy. Will we see much of

that? The question is still hanging over the Olympic Games. Slightly

different in that they were using a lot of existing infrastructure

there, not building the same big, new stadiums. One of the depressing

thing is, or disappointing things, about the Olympics is the fact that

here we are after hosting such a magnificent Games and people are

less active and doing less sport. That's it for The Papers this hour

but James and Christopher will be back with us again, we think, at

11:30pm but it all depends on the camera crew games on the closing

ceremony and the news but we'll be here doing something. Stay with us.

At 11pm, more on the suspected Israeli missile strike close to the

UN run school in Gaza.