27/09/2014 The Papers


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers


With me are political commentator Jo Phillips and Nigel Nelson,


who is political editor of the Sunday People.


Tomorrow's front pages, starting with:


The Observer says the Conservative Party is in chaos


as it begins its party conference following the defection of one MP


The Mail says the two surprises have wrecked Mr Cameron's chances of


using the conference as a launchpad to win the General Election.


She is pictured on the Telegraph, too.


The paper says Mark Reckless lost faith in Mr Cameron after a furious


And the Express leads on the same story:


What an incredible day, politically. Let's begin on what the mail on


Sunday is leading on tomorrow, the minister forced to quit over


Internet sex shame. More details of what these allegations are from


another Sunday newspaper over this minister. The other papers have had


to play catch up fairly quickly. This is a Sunday Mirror story.


Broadly, Brooks Newmark, the civil society minister, was caught sending


explicit pictures of the social media having established a rapport


with someone on social media. He thought he was talking to a young


woman but he was talking to a freelance undercover reporter. The


moment he realised what had happened, he quit. It was within


less than an hour after he had been told the story would run in tomorrow


morning's papers and he went. Clearly, he felt it was serious


enough to resign. David Cameron has not had the usual friendly letters


when you normally do in these occasions and has immediately


replaced him with another minister but it is a very bad start to David


Cameron's Tory conference. The Tory conference wouldn't be the same


without a bombshell! We have got to now! Brooks Newmark doesn't actually


admit to what the allegations are. Our reporters have been in contact


with him and he says he wants to spend time with his family and


doesn't say whether they chew but he has resigned. That does put out the


fire, so to speak, and stop the endless days of calls for his


resignation. One assumes that if this was not true comic he would


fight tooth and nail to defend his name. The last thing a minister like


him would want is this overshadowing the conference. At worst or best,


depending on which way you look at it, it's a terrible error of


judgement. He has made a complete fool of himself. But he has slightly


stolen Mark Reckless's thunder! The focus is very much on both. In the


Observer double whammy for Mr Cameron, who is remaining silent


tonight as he walked into the hotel in Birmingham ahead of the


conference but you will have a lot of questions to answer tomorrow. But


he will want to talk about policies. Indeed! And how the Tories might win


the election. In a sense, Mark Reckless's defection is a much more


serious blow to David Cameron than losing a minister. The fact that


Mark Reckless has a 10,000 majority in Rochester and Strood would


suggest he is likely to retain the seat in a by`election for UKIP in


the same way that Douglas Carswell willing Clacton, meaning that before


the general election, you are looking at UKIP having to elected


MPs in the House of Commons. Psychologically that's hugely


important because they will be seen as a respectable party. Nigel Farage


says he will do whatever it takes to get Mark Reckless elected.


Otherwise, he will be like so many defect ease. He has had his moment


in the sun. He will disappear. Do people vote for defectors? I don't


know. He has got a 10,000 majority but that does not mean he has got a


terrific personal following. But I think a lot of the fact that his ``


a lot of the stuff that has come out tonight... Up until this evening and


last night, Mark Reckless was leaving messages saying, I am


looking forward, going to Birmingham. If those things are


true, and that is what Tory HQ are putting out, voters in Rochester and


Strood might think, that's a bit shifty. He has been plotting this


since last year. Rochester and Strood is one of those areas that


has flipped between Labour and Tory. It could go UKIP but could equally


go Labour. It's important that somebody like Mark Reckless wins the


seat, clearly, but Douglas Carswell... There is a personal


following there. It looks like he will retain the seat. He may do it


with a big majority. What Mark Reckless did is discover... A


polling company went into the constituency, asking questions,


like, how likely would you be to vote for Mark Reckless if he went to


UKIP? Ground is being prepared here. It gives a picture of a very shallow


man. At the end of last month, he was talking about the only way to


get an independent Britain, talking about the European referendum, was


to vote Conservative, so I do agree with you there. But it just seems to


me that it is another coup for Nigel Farage. I presume he would have


unleashed it yesterday but decided the vote in the House of Commons


would have overshadowed it. The Sunday Times also reports on the


defection and the scandal as well. Prime Minister rocked by defection


and sex scandal. Any new interesting analysis of how it rocks the Prime


Minister? They have got Lord Ashcroft's polling data and his


survey of more than 8000 voters found 27% of those who voted Tory in


2010 had abandoned the party. 73% of those would now back UKIP. UKIP is a


very serious threat. David Cameron has got to get his troops geared up


for the election, especially in a way that Labour were not able to do


this last week, and UKIP represent a huge threat there. The activists


will know, the guys will have to go out and leaflets in the rain and so


on, they will know that UKIP could do pride of victory. Sticking with


the Sunday Times, bombing jihadists says top British general. Something


similar was said to me yesterday. Again, question marks over the


military campaign. Absolutely. This is Lord Richards saying, with all


his experience as an army man a soldier, there is no way out of this


without ending up with a ground war and I think that is what everybody


is terrified of. You have got to take it seriously. We will look at


more papers and stories at 11:30 p.m.. At 11 p.m., more on Mark


Reckless, the second Conservative MP to defect to UKIP in a month.


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