29/11/2015 The Papers

That's all the sport, now on BBC News, Gavin Esler has The Papers.

Hello and welcome to our Sunday morning edition of The Papers.

With me are Lisa Markwell, the editor of the Independent on Sunday,

and Ian Birrell, contributing editor at the Mail on Sunday.

The Mail on Sunday leads with Grant Shapps' resignation and the scandal

The Telegraph reports that David Cameron has also been dragged in

to the crisis of alleged bullying inside the Conservative Party.

Grant Shapps and his wife are pictured on front

of The Sunday Express - but it leads with story that up to 100 prisoners

serving life sentences could be let out of jail for Christmas.

The Observer reports that David Cameron is to risk a Commons

vote over Syria strikes despite a split in the Labour Party.

The Times also goes with that story and claims that if David Cameron

wins the vote, he will order RAF air strikes to target the masterminds

There's more on that story in the the Independent On Sunday - it

has a warning to Jeremy Corbyn from his deputy that he must back down.

And finally the Sunday Post has a poll which says that

the public cautiously back bombing raids against IS, but that 74%

of people fear a terrorist attack on the UK within the year.

Let's begin. The big story, presumably, of the week, is The

Observer, Cameron to risk the vote over Syria is the Labour crisis

deepens. It is a risk because he does not know what the Labour MPs

will do, nor does anybody. On an issue like this where the divisions

are not purely down party lines, it is really important for him that he

knows how many Labour MPs are likely to vote four. There is a lot of

behind-the-scenes machinations which we will probably come onto. The word

risk is key in that headline. Nothing is certain. Especially since

he has said, effectively, I will not do this unless we get a reasonable

majority, it would be a propaganda coup for Islamic State. And they

can't risk what happened in 2030 with Ed Miliband, he has to be sure

that if it goes to a vote can he gets the answer. I don't think it is

such a big risk. He will not have any risk if there is any chance of

him losing, especially after what happened in 2013, when he was

pushing for attacks on the other side regime, and then he had to turn

around and say to Obama and others, I am sorry, I can't go ahead with

it. There are arguments in favour of air strikes, one of them is that if

we do not stand by our allies, why are we with them? Is that

reasonable? I think it is the weakest argument, along with the

fact that it is somehow about Britain being a big guy in the

world. I think Cameron spoke very well last week and was very

presidential and authoritative, that I think it is wrong, I think the

argument is all flawed for attacking Syria. I think the only winners will

be Assad, the guy who has killed far more people, and Putin, both of whom

we were being told by the Prime Minister were threats to our

security and enemies of our state. The newspapers are split in terms of

the editorial, and not done straightforward party lines. The

Daily Mail is saying... Interestingly, or perhaps not

interestingly because they are separate papers, the Mail on Sunday

has come down on the separate side. The Observer says absolutely no. I

have taken a lot of advice from one of the world's 's leading expert on

the Middle East. When people like him, Patrick, and very many

political and military experts are unable to absolutely pinpoint which

way to go, I think it is very, very difficult. On balance, I think the

case has not been made. Air strikes is one thing, we have looked about

the paper, but it is afterwards. Cameron talked very well, not only

the military part of it but the political strategies. And it going

forward, but I think it is by no means certain. I have talked to a

number of people, one argument that has been made is that you can never

foresee where any of this will turn out, decapitation strategy is in

Libya and Iraq went badly, this is not the same, this is not trying to

overthrow a government. Bit in Iraq their ground forces with the Kurds,

who when you do the bombing raids, they are basically good guys, there

are not that many of them, they are pushing forward on the ground. So

the air strikes that have a purpose. In Syria, we do not know who the

good guys are, the allies are, the beneficiaries are, the forces. The

talk of 70,000 moderate forces, they are attacking Assad, not Isis, and

they are in the south anyway. Even advisers goes, it will not deal with

the underlying problems to do with sectarianism, repression, the old

colonial borders, foreign intervention. This is not just a

problem in Iraq and Syria but we conceded with Boko Haram in Nigeria,

in Yemen, in Mali, in Bangladesh. Isis are claiming to have carried

out some political murders in Bangladesh. This will not be solved

by bombing Isis. It is much, much more complicated. In some ways, the

public are being duped by thinking that an attack on Isis will solve

the problems. Obviously it is a horrible, malevolent force causing

untold misery, but getting rid of them aid going to solve the

problems. The Independent on Sunday, Watson warns Corbyn that you must

back down. His boss fights on for a majority against bombing, Watson

would like a vote. The fact that Tom Watson is saying that is a big

story? It is. We were discussing this beforehand, Tom Watson has not

said a huge amount in the last ten days or so, that he has come back

thunderously with this exclusive that he has spoken to us about,

which is very much a reaction to the fact that Jeremy Corbyn seems to be

trying to circumnavigate what any other political leader would think

would be the usual rules of how to get your Shadow Cabinet and you MPs

behind you. He has e-mailed all the party membership trying to do the

grassroots rebellion inside the party. Watson, as you would probably

expect a deputy, the sober boys, it turns out, in all of this, to say

that has to be a free vote, you will not be able to persuade the Shadow

Cabinet. It will not work. There are lots of slightly complicated things

going on which our something about Corbyn's offers sent out weapons

they might, and e-mail, we have a story inside, an e-mail to selected

Labour MPs on Wednesday night saying that Cameron has not made the case,

I am unequivocally against. That was Wednesday night, Cameron did not lay

out his case until Thursday. It was a bit prejudged. A little bit. It

feels like the heels are dug in, if he has to change and, as Watson

says, have a free vote, it will be really uncomfortable. And there are

very senior trade union leaders expressing disquiet, the Shadow

Foreign Secretary at the Shadow Defence Secretary as well. It is an

utter and complete farce what is going on in the Labour party. When

you think it can't get worse, it gets worse. It is humiliating for

them. Robert Harris has a very powerful column in the Sunday Times,

which I don't intently agree with, but it is fantastic Labour, he says

it is not about splits in the party, it is an existential crisis in the

party, what is its point, will it totally split? The MPs wrote sync

with the party. They may think they are more in sync with the

electorate, which they probably are, but the party has changed. There are

lots of new members and there is a clash. The other unavoidable fact is

that, possibly for the wrong reasons, Corbyn was right on Iraq,

host of the guys opposing him were wrong on Iraq by backing the war,

and I also think he is right on the Syrian crisis. That is another

problem. I think it is right what Ian is saying, Corbyn speaks a lot

of sense. Although it is driven a lot by anti-American is. The reasons

might be wrong, but we do not know what we are about to do, we should

think about it more carefully and not be rushed to action, that is

very important. When you talk outside of Westminster and media

bubble, you talk to people outside, the new members or some of a

long-time members the Labour Party, they completely believe in Corbyn

and think that he is a highly principled person and they support

an entirely on this. It is very interesting last night after we put

the front page up, I got so much on Twitter and other social media from

Labour members saying that Watson is being completely disloyal, he must

go because Corbyn is the leader and we support him. I just spoke to the

Labour MP Stephen Kinnock, he said the trouble with that argument is

that if you have a leader who has rebelled 500 times against previous

leaders, or call the loyalty is fairly nonsensical. He promised a

new politics and he is demonstrating it, but it is politics bordering on

farce. We hear the word mandate all the time, he has thousands and

thousands of people, he is appealing direct route to them. It is

difficult to mute that. People will feel even more disenchanted and

disenfranchised of their own leader does not speak to them. Shadow

Cabinet members say that the most frustrating thing is not that they

are at loggerheads, he just does nothing, he backs off and things

explode in the media. It must be very hard for a politician to deal

with. Moving onto the Mail on Sunday, it

has campaigned quite strongly on this issue, the Tory scandal forces

minister out, Grant Shapps, exposed after we revealed new MP blackmail

pot doomed? The PM's pal is in the firing line over our revelations.

This could have been an open goal for Labour, it is really mucky

stuff? It shows the depth of the Labour crisis that we are talking

about it third this morning, it is astonishing. The political editor of

the Mail on Sunday, Simon Walters, has uncovered this for weeks before

the rest of the media picked it up. Suddenly it has exploded. Sit back

and think about it, it is astonishing. A story about sex and

drugs and blackmail and careerist politics all going on within the

Conservative Party, reaching the very highest levels. It involves

three past party chairman, it involves the new deputy chairman, it

is very extraordinary. At root, it confirms the public's worst fears

about politics. It is like a rejected version of the Alan Busted

normal Mark Roe -- the television story. It tars them all? Shadowy

figure of the MP he was not named, they know who it is, they say coyly,

but out of respect will not name them... Respect for the lawyers!

Batters MacGuffin for me, this is about David Cameron's choices. --

that is a McGuffin. Until he could not support Grant Shapps any more,

he very much supported him. As Simon Heather says in the Telegraph, the

water had closed over Grant Shapps very quickly. He has not left any

mark at all. Nevertheless, Cameron really believed in him and supported

him. Lord Feldman, a very close friend of Cameron's. This is where

it is creeping up. The idea of sex scandals is interesting, but it goes

to the heart of the choices of who is running the country, who is

advising the Prime Minister. Leaving this aside, Feldman has been a very

good chairman for the party. Financially, you still very good job

and sorted out a lot of operations. There is a friendship issue but he

has been a very, very effective chairman behind-the-scenes.

Nevertheless if, as we are being told today, warnings as far back as

2009 were given to people at Lord Feldman's level and they did nothing

about it, even if there were lots of individual, slightly lower-level

warnings, you would expect some body running things to say, hold on a

minute. Somebody as intelligent as Lord Feldman should have every

lights that one day this would gather strength. -- should have

realised. This will run and run, there is lots more in it? It is

almost ambient good not to run. Lets not forget Elliot Johnson, the poor

young man motivated by politics, really wanted to get involved, is

now dead and his father, incredibly bravely and very strongly, is saying

that Grant Shapps going is absolutely not... Grant Shapps says

the buck stops with me, I am sorry, that is not the case, Andrei Johnson

wants this to go all the way, he wanted those who took -- and Ray

Johnson wants this to go all the way, he says he wants those who knew

about it to take responsibility. On the Sunday Telegraph, I think it is

the best political comment of the day, it often comes from

cartoonist, on the front page there are two activists in Labour Party

headquarters, one says to the other, obviously things won't run this

movie when Jeremy Corbyn's honeymoon period is over. Almost always

absolutely spot-on. We were counting up Corbyn pits days in the office,

it is day 85, normally when they take over, the first 100 days, as

newspaper editors, you get those pieces ready. We'll Jeremy Corbyn

make it to 100 days? The cartoonist nails it. The mechanism for removing

a leader of the Labour Party, especially one with a thumping

majority, he could be the leader for as long as he chooses. But people

are already saying publicly that he must go. In the days after he got

the job, literally the next day, senior people said there is no

question of him quitting. I thought that was rather indicative. The

Oldham by-election will be very interesting. The fact that Corbyn

has decided not to go, he may pop up in his grey tracksuit at the last

minute, but at the moment he is not going. It is likely heartbreaking,

you would expect that to be front and centre of what he is doing. Ukip

have had a bad time, leadership problems, it might kick-start them.

Internally, the Independent On Saturday had a poll saying that his

majority is down to as little as 1000. From 15,000.

The Sunday Telegraph has got Murrays put Britain on the brink of

cup glory, the Sunday Times says all set for the final showdown, Andy

Murray, the prospect of winning the Davis Cup for the first time since

1936. What can you say, it is very exciting and stop this brings

together two sporting stories from both ends of the spectrum, the fine

gentleman sport of tennis and the rather more... How shall we say

unglamorous sport of boxing, although there is more money in

boxing. We have not had a British winner of the title since 1936 or

1934, Ian has all the details. We would have had more recent, but it

is amazing, a huge shock in boxing, Robert Lee the biggest shock of the

25 years. Little was known about this guy, he came along and he has

beaten the world champion, who has been raining for a long time. It is

an underdog triumph, the classic rock singer story. It made the front

page of the Telegraph sport, fists of Few read, he defeats Klitschko to

become heavyweight champion of the world. I don't think most British

people outside of the boxing world will know of him. -- fists of Fury.

Boxing is not the force, no plan intended, that it used to be, they

all papal view -- pay-per-view, you can watch them in the pub, they are

on at crazy hours of the day and night will stop de Gea used ago to

the pub to watch boxing? -- didn't you used ago? Not on Saturday, I am

busy! One of the stories is not on the papers at all, the junior

doctors strike on Tuesday. At the moment it looks like it is going

ahead. And also the Paris climate conference, there will be a big

march in London. And all over the place. Those are two big stories

which made none of the front pages. The Telegraph has the junior doctors

on it, for the public, that is probably the biggest story. Battle

most affect people. It is difficult to see what could avert that. I

think Jeremy Hunt, something said yesterday that they think it is too

later but they will still attempt another talk with him tomorrow.

Everybody is so caught up in Syria and Labour 's shenanigans that it

has dropped away. It will be a heck of a week in politics, the

prospective chaos in the NHS, the prospect of bombing or not bombing

Syria, Oldham and what is going on in the Labour Party. Is that why you

are journalist? I can keep my feet up until next Saturday! It is a

Sunday paper. Thank you very much. Our thanks to Lisa and Ian. We take

a look at tomorrow's front pages every evening at 10:30pm and 11:30pm

on BBC News.