23/05/2016 The Papers


23/05/2016

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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

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With me are Tim Stanley, columnist at the Telegraph.

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And Rowena Mason, political correspondent at the Guardian.

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We can look at some of the front pages.

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The I's headline reads 'fracking back on track' -

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after councillors in North Yorkshire approved plans

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for the controversial drilling of shale gas, despite fierce

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The Metro leads with a price war in the budget airline industry,

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with Ryanair saying it will slash its air fares by 12

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The FT says Austria's rightwing presidential candidate conceded

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defeat by the narrowest of margins, the paper highlighted how

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the immigration crisis has thoroughly upended

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The Telegraph leads on the EU Referendum, with a poll

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for the newspaper suggesting for the first time that most men,

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over-65s and Tory supporters want to stay in the EU.

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The Guardian says that Christians are now outnumbered in the UK,

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as more and people say they have no religion.

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And the Express shows the Queen in full bloom, as she attends

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this year's Chelsea Flower Show in London.

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We will start with the Daily Telegraph and older voters turning

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their backs on Brexit. One poll, we have to be clear, and it is for the

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paper itself but it is a turned up considering polls we have seen in

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the past. It is fascinating and of course the caveats about it being

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one poll and we are meant to be cautious about polling after the

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disaster predicting the general election last year. This is possibly

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the moment we are seeing a shift from older voters tending to favour

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the Leave camp towards moving to the Remain camp. What David Cameron will

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have been looking out for, hoping there would be a moment when their

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numerous warnings about the various things Brexit could do to the

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economy might have started to hit home to the people sitting at home

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will stop was that it, Tim? Over a period of time aimed nut will

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eventually crack if you bash it over the head enough? Of course. It is

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like they grabbed the back of the head of the public and shoved it

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into a bucket of water and saying you are only coming out when you

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vote Remain. I would not blame anyone at this stage who is

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concerned about the economy for shifting the vote. They have had the

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president, head of the IMF, major economies, the Treasury, every

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person lined up to say it is a risk to come out and so no surprise there

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is a shift but a warning, the Telegraph says that when it comes to

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voting intentions and in these years, there is an advantage with

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believers. It looks like if turnout is low the Leave campaign could

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gamble everything on the possibility there people will come out and

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others won't but the fact over 65s are turning, is never can. Because

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the government has still not taught pensions and I bet that will be the

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next big thing. They saving that up? I would not be surprised. It played

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well in the Scottish referendum and that is the thing to hit next, your

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pension will be cut. Your assets will be affected. If they can make

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older people worried about personal finances it will affect a big shift

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in the vote. What about Nicola Sturgeon today, she wants to remain

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in the European Union, but she makes it clear you have to be careful in

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using negative attack in order to drive home your message. She said

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something quite cutting about George Osborne's Treasury analysis, saying

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it was insulting to people'sintelligence he made

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warnings that seen this exaggerated. One of her arguments is it will turn

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people off but we must remember that Project Fear as it was called in the

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Scottish referendum was quite effective. Scotland voted to stay

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within the union. David Cameron and George Osborne might decide not to

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listen to that advice and carry on with this onslaught of negativity,

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which will make people afraid of the consequences of leaving. While

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Project Fear Wigan the battle, the referendum, arguably it lost the war

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because after the referendum the SNP vote went up and they started to

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dominate in elections like they had not done before and I am convinced

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it is a consequence of Project Fear in that referendum and down here, if

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they pushed too hard on fear they will alienate a group of voters who

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will go further right. Ukip will not go away after the referendum. It

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could have if people had peacefully voted to stay, Ukip might have

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evaporated but not now, because they have a narrative that the

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establishment ganged up against them will stop I suspect Project Fear

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will sustain Euroscepticism where is it killed it with kindness. David

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Cameron was not complacent about winning this. He has had jitters

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especially over things like turnout and older voters and conservative

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voters veering towards the Leave camp will stop if he had a more

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confident maybe he would not have happened to turn to this book

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Project Fear is what he feels he had to do to win it. The Daily Express,

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an EU threat to family life with UK mothers set to back Brexit over

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fears over their children's future. This is based on a poll of net mums

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and it says Britain's mothers are set to lead the country out of the

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EU. An online poll of 2000 of them and their does not seem to be a

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check about who can vote in it. You can find the link on the internet on

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Twitter and click which side you want. Not particularly reliable? I

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am not sure the methods will stand up to scrutiny. And a debate about

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whether online polls tend to attract people who feel strongly about

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things anyway, they seek out things to click on. Actually, online polls

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seem to show a bias towards Leave whereas phone polls seem to be

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tending towards Remain. And they are biased towards people on the

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internet. Not everyone is on the internet. Fracking. Back on track

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will stop to start up again in the UK despite opposition. This is the

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first time in five years I think they will push ahead and give

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somebody a licence to Frank. There will be more opposition. People will

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protest. The government must convince people it is safe and there

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is an economic argument for it. Britain is edging towards a power

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supply crisis and the problem is if you do fracking there is no

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guarantee it will lower prices because we are part of the European

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grid. It will make money for the companies but not necessarily

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translate into benefit for consumers. Renewable energies are

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costly and inefficient. Nuclear is very expensive. We would have to pay

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the Chinese a huge amount to build a new station. The things that are

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cost effective things like coal and other forms of gas. Britain is

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edging towards a crisis and I guess if they don't do this, who knows, we

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will have rolling blackouts. The suggestion then, as in the US,

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energy prices tumbling because of the fracking revolution there but

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that would not necessarily apply a? The headline says that fracking is

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back on track and I think it is overstating it. Likewise when George

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Osborne promised an energy revolution through fracking and

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prices could be brought down by Shell gas, it is a bit of an

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exaggeration. We would have to do it on an enormous scale for that to

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happen. This is only one case of planning permission being granted in

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one place. It would have to be all over the country for that to happen.

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It is a small step forward but by no means this great big revolution and

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hope for lower energy prices. The person who produces the energy will

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be freed to sell it across European markets with pipelines going to

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Holland in Norway and so it might be Norwegian people who benefit. It

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might be that the economic benefit is to employment. Christians

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outnumbered as the UK becomes less religious. We are talking about

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polls but there has been a shift. According to the Guardian, in 2011

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there was a majority of people calling themselves Christian and in

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five years, now more people say they have no religion than people who

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describe themselves as Christian. An extraordinary shift. The Guardian

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explains it in that the people raise Christian, who are culturally

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Christian, having recent years stopped describing themselves as

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Christian will stop an interesting decoupling between one's identity

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and what you are christened as, what school you went to. People not

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feeling the distinctive loyalty to Christianity. It is not surprising.

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Christians do not evangelise in this country. They are not encouraged to

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talk about their faith and promote it. It is not the done thing in this

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country. If you look at British history there have been peaks and

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troughs of Christian identity. In the 18th century it hit a low and

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churches are under attended and atheism is popular with the

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Industrial Revolution and people looking at science. It comes back on

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the 19th century because it is fashionable, because there is a move

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to evangelise. Until the mainstream churches shake off the nervousness

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about talking about religion, it is no surprise. The Financial Times,

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the right wing surge as Hofer suffers wafer thin presidential

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defeat. Very interesting. Apparently Austrian news websites have been

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crashing because everybody in the country has been waiting to find out

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who their new president will be. Amazingly, it is the independent

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candidate he used to be a Green who has come through narrowly against

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the Freedom party candidates, Norbert Hofer. None of the main

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parties got the second round. Like the referendum, as we said, it might

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be a case of losing the battle and winning the war. The fact they went

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to the final round and there was 0.4% between the two candidates. The

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Green guy won postal ballots which will feed conspiracy thinking. I

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wonder if it might mean those voters living abroad are more liberal and

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pro-EU, I don't know. One suspects the narrative will emerge that it

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was stolen from them. The freedom Party is now a big party in Austria.

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And will play a big role in the general elections of a couple of

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years. And in the Daily Telegraph, the Queen. She is at Chelsea. She

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has been given flowers and made a joke about people trying to

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assassinate her. Only she can make jokes like that by one of them I

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think is a poisonous lily and she said to the person that gave it to

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her, I have been given two bunches this week, perhaps they want me

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dead! She goes her flowers, clearly. And the flowers behind her, the

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image of her on postage stamps. An extraordinary display. OK. You will

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be back in an hour and we will look at more stories behind the

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headlines. Many thanks. Much more coming up stop thanks for watching

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the Papers. Good evening, tomorrow should be

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mostly dry with spells of sunshine. Today we started bright and there we

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saw cloud

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No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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