23/05/2016 The Papers

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

With me are Tim Stanley, columnist at the Telegraph.

And Rowena Mason, political correspondent at the Guardian.

We can look at some of the front pages.

The I's headline reads 'fracking back on track' -

after councillors in North Yorkshire approved plans

for the controversial drilling of shale gas, despite fierce

The Metro leads with a price war in the budget airline industry,

with Ryanair saying it will slash its air fares by 12

The FT says Austria's rightwing presidential candidate conceded

defeat by the narrowest of margins, the paper highlighted how

the immigration crisis has thoroughly upended

The Telegraph leads on the EU Referendum, with a poll

for the newspaper suggesting for the first time that most men,

over-65s and Tory supporters want to stay in the EU.

The Guardian says that Christians are now outnumbered in the UK,

as more and people say they have no religion.

And the Express shows the Queen in full bloom, as she attends

this year's Chelsea Flower Show in London.

We will start with the Daily Telegraph and older voters turning

their backs on Brexit. One poll, we have to be clear, and it is for the

paper itself but it is a turned up considering polls we have seen in

the past. It is fascinating and of course the caveats about it being

one poll and we are meant to be cautious about polling after the

disaster predicting the general election last year. This is possibly

the moment we are seeing a shift from older voters tending to favour

the Leave camp towards moving to the Remain camp. What David Cameron will

have been looking out for, hoping there would be a moment when their

numerous warnings about the various things Brexit could do to the

economy might have started to hit home to the people sitting at home

will stop was that it, Tim? Over a period of time aimed nut will

eventually crack if you bash it over the head enough? Of course. It is

like they grabbed the back of the head of the public and shoved it

into a bucket of water and saying you are only coming out when you

vote Remain. I would not blame anyone at this stage who is

concerned about the economy for shifting the vote. They have had the

president, head of the IMF, major economies, the Treasury, every

person lined up to say it is a risk to come out and so no surprise there

is a shift but a warning, the Telegraph says that when it comes to

voting intentions and in these years, there is an advantage with

believers. It looks like if turnout is low the Leave campaign could

gamble everything on the possibility there people will come out and

others won't but the fact over 65s are turning, is never can. Because

the government has still not taught pensions and I bet that will be the

next big thing. They saving that up? I would not be surprised. It played

well in the Scottish referendum and that is the thing to hit next, your

pension will be cut. Your assets will be affected. If they can make

older people worried about personal finances it will affect a big shift

in the vote. What about Nicola Sturgeon today, she wants to remain

in the European Union, but she makes it clear you have to be careful in

using negative attack in order to drive home your message. She said

something quite cutting about George Osborne's Treasury analysis, saying

it was insulting to people'sintelligence he made

warnings that seen this exaggerated. One of her arguments is it will turn

people off but we must remember that Project Fear as it was called in the

Scottish referendum was quite effective. Scotland voted to stay

within the union. David Cameron and George Osborne might decide not to

listen to that advice and carry on with this onslaught of negativity,

which will make people afraid of the consequences of leaving. While

Project Fear Wigan the battle, the referendum, arguably it lost the war

because after the referendum the SNP vote went up and they started to

dominate in elections like they had not done before and I am convinced

it is a consequence of Project Fear in that referendum and down here, if

they pushed too hard on fear they will alienate a group of voters who

will go further right. Ukip will not go away after the referendum. It

could have if people had peacefully voted to stay, Ukip might have

evaporated but not now, because they have a narrative that the

establishment ganged up against them will stop I suspect Project Fear

will sustain Euroscepticism where is it killed it with kindness. David

Cameron was not complacent about winning this. He has had jitters

especially over things like turnout and older voters and conservative

voters veering towards the Leave camp will stop if he had a more

confident maybe he would not have happened to turn to this book

Project Fear is what he feels he had to do to win it. The Daily Express,

an EU threat to family life with UK mothers set to back Brexit over

fears over their children's future. This is based on a poll of net mums

and it says Britain's mothers are set to lead the country out of the

EU. An online poll of 2000 of them and their does not seem to be a

check about who can vote in it. You can find the link on the internet on

Twitter and click which side you want. Not particularly reliable? I

am not sure the methods will stand up to scrutiny. And a debate about

whether online polls tend to attract people who feel strongly about

things anyway, they seek out things to click on. Actually, online polls

seem to show a bias towards Leave whereas phone polls seem to be

tending towards Remain. And they are biased towards people on the

internet. Not everyone is on the internet. Fracking. Back on track

will stop to start up again in the UK despite opposition. This is the

first time in five years I think they will push ahead and give

somebody a licence to Frank. There will be more opposition. People will

protest. The government must convince people it is safe and there

is an economic argument for it. Britain is edging towards a power

supply crisis and the problem is if you do fracking there is no

guarantee it will lower prices because we are part of the European

grid. It will make money for the companies but not necessarily

translate into benefit for consumers. Renewable energies are

costly and inefficient. Nuclear is very expensive. We would have to pay

the Chinese a huge amount to build a new station. The things that are

cost effective things like coal and other forms of gas. Britain is

edging towards a crisis and I guess if they don't do this, who knows, we

will have rolling blackouts. The suggestion then, as in the US,

energy prices tumbling because of the fracking revolution there but

that would not necessarily apply a? The headline says that fracking is

back on track and I think it is overstating it. Likewise when George

Osborne promised an energy revolution through fracking and

prices could be brought down by Shell gas, it is a bit of an

exaggeration. We would have to do it on an enormous scale for that to

happen. This is only one case of planning permission being granted in

one place. It would have to be all over the country for that to happen.

It is a small step forward but by no means this great big revolution and

hope for lower energy prices. The person who produces the energy will

be freed to sell it across European markets with pipelines going to

Holland in Norway and so it might be Norwegian people who benefit. It

might be that the economic benefit is to employment. Christians

outnumbered as the UK becomes less religious. We are talking about

polls but there has been a shift. According to the Guardian, in 2011

there was a majority of people calling themselves Christian and in

five years, now more people say they have no religion than people who

describe themselves as Christian. An extraordinary shift. The Guardian

explains it in that the people raise Christian, who are culturally

Christian, having recent years stopped describing themselves as

Christian will stop an interesting decoupling between one's identity

and what you are christened as, what school you went to. People not

feeling the distinctive loyalty to Christianity. It is not surprising.

Christians do not evangelise in this country. They are not encouraged to

talk about their faith and promote it. It is not the done thing in this

country. If you look at British history there have been peaks and

troughs of Christian identity. In the 18th century it hit a low and

churches are under attended and atheism is popular with the

Industrial Revolution and people looking at science. It comes back on

the 19th century because it is fashionable, because there is a move

to evangelise. Until the mainstream churches shake off the nervousness

about talking about religion, it is no surprise. The Financial Times,

the right wing surge as Hofer suffers wafer thin presidential

defeat. Very interesting. Apparently Austrian news websites have been

crashing because everybody in the country has been waiting to find out

who their new president will be. Amazingly, it is the independent

candidate he used to be a Green who has come through narrowly against

the Freedom party candidates, Norbert Hofer. None of the main

parties got the second round. Like the referendum, as we said, it might

be a case of losing the battle and winning the war. The fact they went

to the final round and there was 0.4% between the two candidates. The

Green guy won postal ballots which will feed conspiracy thinking. I

wonder if it might mean those voters living abroad are more liberal and

pro-EU, I don't know. One suspects the narrative will emerge that it

was stolen from them. The freedom Party is now a big party in Austria.

And will play a big role in the general elections of a couple of

years. And in the Daily Telegraph, the Queen. She is at Chelsea. She

has been given flowers and made a joke about people trying to

assassinate her. Only she can make jokes like that by one of them I

think is a poisonous lily and she said to the person that gave it to

her, I have been given two bunches this week, perhaps they want me

dead! She goes her flowers, clearly. And the flowers behind her, the

image of her on postage stamps. An extraordinary display. OK. You will

be back in an hour and we will look at more stories behind the

headlines. Many thanks. Much more coming up stop thanks for watching

the Papers. Good evening, tomorrow should be

mostly dry with spells of sunshine. Today we started bright and there we

saw cloud