29/05/2016 The Papers


29/05/2016

A lively, informed and in-depth conversation about the Sunday papers.


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Hello and welcome to our Sunday morning edition of The Papers.

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With me are the economist Ruth Lea and Peter Kellner,

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former President of pollsters YouGov.

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The Sunday Times leads with accusations from Vote Leave

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leaders that David Cameron has lost public trust over his failure

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The Sunday Telegraph also goes with the EU referendum with claims

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from eurosceptic ministers that the Prime Minister

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is unconcerned with the impact of immigration on working families.

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But an Observer poll suggests a boost for the Remain campaign

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as experts warn that the economy will be harmed if Britain votes

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And on the front page of the Express, a new protein jab

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Let's begin. It's all Brexit, exit, Leave, Remain. Let's begin with

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Boris and Michael Gove lash Cameron on immigration. They accuse the

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promised off corroding public trust, that is a tough statement about your

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boss. This is all about Brexit but it's full so about the parallel

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story of the wars within the Conservative Party. You could almost

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hint that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are looking for some leadership

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challenge after the Brexit referendum result, whatever it is. I

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think it's true that when Cameron came up with this promised to

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restrict immigration to tens of thousands, it was something he

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couldn't possibly deliver given what was happening in the EU with

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migration. In a way he made a pledge that he couldn't deliver. The

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figures we saw last week suggested that net immigration was 330,000, so

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much for the tens of thousands of immigrants. This is one of the very

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strong cards played by those who want us to leave the EU. Polling

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suggests one of the things we really dislike about politicians is when

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they promise much more than they deliver, and that was an

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unachievable promise. It that the Luke Wright. At YouGov we did polls

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on that a lot and what it shows is that nobody is trusted on

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immigration. Labour isn't trusted but neither are the Conservatives.

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One of the reasons for the rise of Ukip is the distrust of politicians.

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I wonder whether Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are overstating the

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case when they say the promise of reduced immigration is plainly not

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achievable as long as the UK is a member of the EU. In the mail on

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Sunday an interesting piece by Ian Birrell. He is no EU enthusiasts.

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He's a deep sceptic but he's been to Norway, cited as one of the

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countries that Britain should copy. He says that immigration to Norway

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outside the EU is much higher than ours. That is true incidentally of

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all the countries cited like Canada, Switzerland, Australia. Or America.

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They have twice as high immigration relative to population. When you

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look at what Ian Birrell says, this is about immigration shows the

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absurdity of claims by the Brexit campaign is that leaving the EU. The

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flow of migrants. Yes, David Cameron has a credibility problem but I'm

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not sure Michael Gove... That's true but Norway is in the single market

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and it has freedom of movement of labour so it is in a similar

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situation. Would have to be out of the single market as well as out of

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the EU. Canada and Australia have their own rules, twice as high

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immigration. Switzerland also has a bilateral and on the freedom of

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movement and immigration as well. I half agree with you but not the lead

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in the sense that if we were to leave the European Union, and not

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have freedom of labour, at least there would be some hope of

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restricting EU immigration, if not non-EU immigration. There would be

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more control. Whether they would get it down to tens of thousands I'm

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very much doubt. Bail saying that they are not worried about high

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immigration but what Tim Montgomery said is they would rather have fewer

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people from Romania and more technicians from India, doctors from

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Australia. It's not as if within the Brexit camp there is a single view

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about what should happen to immigration. There would be more

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control over it you migrants, that's the point. Picking up from what you

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just said, there would be a non-discriminatory policy you would

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have between EU and non-EU immigrants which I'm in favour of.

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The Observer has got massive boost the PM as over 600 colonists reject

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Brexit. -- 600 economists. I didn't participate in these surveys as it

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was the royalty canonic society but I would have said, I'm in the 12%

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that would have said no to this. This looks like groupthink. We

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remember the 364 economists that condemned the budget in nearly

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1980s. It was always a joke at the time, misses that you said,.

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Economists who think it was terrific. She said, thank goodness I

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wasn't asked for a third. As it happened the budget was the right

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thing to do at the time and I remember when we were thrown out of

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the ERM groupthink said this would be a disaster, and a few of us said

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this is great. Again, groupthink over the euro. They said we must

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join the year road, we're going to lose all this trade. A few of us

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said this was nonsense and we were right. Pat Lam. -- hang-up on.

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Entering the exchange-rate mechanism in 1990 and then joining the year

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road, there was a large group of people including myself who said

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these are an wise things. I think it's rewriting history to say it was

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a tiny minority. After Black Wednesday a range of people said

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with lower sterling growth will take. I don't think it's quite as

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complete a groupthink as you are saying. I still think it was

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groupthink. Ira member it clearly because I was in the bank at the

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time. When we were thrown out of the ERM there was no doubt that there

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were a vast majority of people who thought this would be a disaster

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including people like the CBI. Can I link this to immigration. Oddly

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enough, paradoxically, the one thing that would reduce immigration

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sharply and quickly is if we voted for Brexit and the Remain Campaign

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were right. If the economy goes into slump, there went been the jobs that

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will attract people to come here. If the Brexit campaigners are right and

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the economy takes off, we will need all these extra immigrants to fill

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the jobs that become available. That is somewhat tendentious. There is

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another argument which is that the benefits of otherwise of immigration

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and who comes in. Robert Samuelson, his economist joke was that the

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trouble with economists is we've predicted five of the last two

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recessions. Whether people sitting at home think this is any better

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than astrology I'm not quite sure. It's the old joke that economic

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forecasting is there to make astrology look good. You raised it

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that part of this is about the entire future of the country, part

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of it is about the future of the Conservative Party. The mail on

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Sunday has John Major savaging boorish Brexit. It's very

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unpleasant. It is very unpleasant and both sides of the campaign have

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come out with very few accolades. I was looking at the Treasury Select

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Committee report that came out on Friday, they condemned both sides.

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It was critical of both sides. I think on both sides there's been a

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enormous distortion of the facts. I think they believe have distorted

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how much money we send to the European Union and the remains I'd

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have distorted the economic impact. I think Ruth is underselling

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herself. Ruth used to be part of the Vote Leave campaign and you pulled

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out because of the way it was campaigning and twisting economic

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numbers which you disapproved of. I wish not told you that! LAUGHTER

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Very interesting. Would you like to add to that? I think will change the

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subject. I thought the really weird story of the day about this is the

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Sunday Telegraph, Cameron is too rich to care about migration. A

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pinny veld attack on Remain leaders, Priti Patel talking about David

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Cameron and George Osborne saying they are too rich to care about

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migration. Has she not met Boris Johnson? She thinks she can say it

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because of her background which is very interesting. This again is

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really about the Tory party. More and more wars within the Tory party,

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its positioning as to what will happen after the referendum. I saw

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the BBC website this morning suggesting there would be some

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challenge to Cameron's position even if he won. I see this as another

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Tory was story. It comes down to what Reid said about Priti Patel's

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background. Her family were Ugandan Asians who were thrown out by Eddie

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Armin. The Conservative Prime Minister took on the right of his

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own party by saying as a matter of moral principle, we need to allow

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these people to come to Britain. That is what allowed Priti Patel's

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family to come to Britain. The other thing I find slightly odd about what

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she said is that these rich people, then narrow self-interest failed to

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pay due regard to the wider public. She is a minister in work and

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pensions, this is a department involved in cutting housing benefit,

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the bedroom tax, changes to tax credits, toughening up rules on

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disabled people. I think it's slightly risky for a minister in

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that department to talk about the wider interest, given their record.

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She's not particularly associated with those policies. She's a member

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of the department. She personally is particularly associated. If she

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comes out now and says those policies are wrong, fairness. This

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is the Sunday Telegraph, Nato generals saying an invader is vital.

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Let's move on. -- in vote. I like the Telegraph story, books are now

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status symbols. This is from the jefe stubble, Sean Hamilton has said

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that books have become a way of displaying their taste of friends

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when they would actually read the digital version. You can't show

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what's on your iPad but you put the books on your shelf and you buy

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them. What did you make of this? I think it has always been the case.

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People buy books to say, look at me. Let's be honest about this. I've

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always done it. LAUGHTER At least your honest! The number of American

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politicians are used into view in their offices, they had all these

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beautiful leather bound books which were bought by the yard and stuck in

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and never opened. 20 of 35 years ago I bought Stephen Hawkins A Brief

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History of time. I bet there are many people around Britain who have

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unread copies. I got to page five. That's better than me! LAUGHTER One

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of the other stories which is a rather sad story whatever happened,

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we don't quite know the facts but the daily Mirror and the sun have

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got it. Johnny Depp says, she just wants my millions. Actress wife says

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she feared for her life. This is the story of the break-up of Johnny Depp

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and his wife Amber. He is one of the best-known, highest-paid actors in

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the world. It's a rather sad story. Yes. It's sad, unimportant,

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irrelevant and absolutely fascinating. Welcome to the world of

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newspapers! The daily Mirror has got his wife's version alleging that he

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was high and drunk. The Sun has got his version accusing his wife of

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having bisexual relations. I have no idea of the truth of any of these

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allegations. But if this goes to court, and is thrashed out in

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public, it's a bit like OJ Simpson. The drama on the BBC a few weeks

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ago. This is going to be like that if it goes to court. I think I hope

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it doesn't because I think it's a bit unseemly. But we are all going

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to watch it. It's the sort of story some others tut-tut about but we

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read because it's an interesting human drama that we think we know.

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All I remember about Johnny Depp of course is the various acting roles.

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The other thing one remembers is the apology by him and his wife about

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the dogs they had in Australia. It was bizarre. When people say he was

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off his head on drugs and Ring, they both looked but they were off their

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heads. It was extraordinary. I think the Australians were fed up they

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brought these dogs into the country. One Australian said something fairly

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brutal as to where they could go. It really wasn't good enough. It was

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very strange because when you saw that apology it was almost like

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satire. As you agree, I'm told he got $95 million for one movie

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appearance, that must make you a completely different person from the

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rest of humanity, which is perhaps some of the reasons why we are

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fascinated by this. It's a bit like footballers. At the age of 20 they

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earn millions and millions. Perhaps the astonishing thing is how few of

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them go off the rails because the good football managers look after

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them and protect them. If you get this sudden amounts of money, some

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of them are going to do strange things. Finally, the Sunday Times,

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plastic fivers end is of dirty money. We've got plastic banknotes.

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I liked dirty money. LAUGHTER Some of us like any old money! I'd not be

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able to go off the rails with ?14 million. In Australia and New

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Zealand they've had plastic money for years. It's much better, it's

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cleaner, nicer, more enduring. Bring it on. This was one of Mervyn King's

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last projects at the Bank of England, to prepare the grounds. Now

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it's coming in. I think it's a really good idea. It means that

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those of us who forget the odd fibre in a jeans pocket and stick it in

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the washing machine will not have to pull out the bits and pieces. This

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will survive a 95 degrees washing cycle. That's what I really wanted

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to know on a Sunday morning. They are harder to forge. There are more

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security measures built into them. Can we not for once say progress is

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good, tradition is not always right? Sometimes. Let's agree. Progress is

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good. I shall make a note. That's it for The Papers.

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Thanks to Ruth and Peter. Just a reminder we take a look

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at tomorrows front pages every

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