29/05/2016 The Papers


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Hello and welcome to our Sunday morning edition of The Papers.


With me are the economist Ruth Lea and Peter Kellner,


former President of pollsters YouGov.


The Sunday Times leads with accusations from Vote Leave


leaders that David Cameron has lost public trust over his failure


The Sunday Telegraph also goes with the EU referendum with claims


from eurosceptic ministers that the Prime Minister


is unconcerned with the impact of immigration on working families.


But an Observer poll suggests a boost for the Remain campaign


as experts warn that the economy will be harmed if Britain votes


And on the front page of the Express, a new protein jab


Let's begin. It's all Brexit, exit, Leave, Remain. Let's begin with


Boris and Michael Gove lash Cameron on immigration. They accuse the


promised off corroding public trust, that is a tough statement about your


boss. This is all about Brexit but it's full so about the parallel


story of the wars within the Conservative Party. You could almost


hint that Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are looking for some leadership


challenge after the Brexit referendum result, whatever it is. I


think it's true that when Cameron came up with this promised to


restrict immigration to tens of thousands, it was something he


couldn't possibly deliver given what was happening in the EU with


migration. In a way he made a pledge that he couldn't deliver. The


figures we saw last week suggested that net immigration was 330,000, so


much for the tens of thousands of immigrants. This is one of the very


strong cards played by those who want us to leave the EU. Polling


suggests one of the things we really dislike about politicians is when


they promise much more than they deliver, and that was an


unachievable promise. It that the Luke Wright. At YouGov we did polls


on that a lot and what it shows is that nobody is trusted on


immigration. Labour isn't trusted but neither are the Conservatives.


One of the reasons for the rise of Ukip is the distrust of politicians.


I wonder whether Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are overstating the


case when they say the promise of reduced immigration is plainly not


achievable as long as the UK is a member of the EU. In the mail on


Sunday an interesting piece by Ian Birrell. He is no EU enthusiasts.


He's a deep sceptic but he's been to Norway, cited as one of the


countries that Britain should copy. He says that immigration to Norway


outside the EU is much higher than ours. That is true incidentally of


all the countries cited like Canada, Switzerland, Australia. Or America.


They have twice as high immigration relative to population. When you


look at what Ian Birrell says, this is about immigration shows the


absurdity of claims by the Brexit campaign is that leaving the EU. The


flow of migrants. Yes, David Cameron has a credibility problem but I'm


not sure Michael Gove... That's true but Norway is in the single market


and it has freedom of movement of labour so it is in a similar


situation. Would have to be out of the single market as well as out of


the EU. Canada and Australia have their own rules, twice as high


immigration. Switzerland also has a bilateral and on the freedom of


movement and immigration as well. I half agree with you but not the lead


in the sense that if we were to leave the European Union, and not


have freedom of labour, at least there would be some hope of


restricting EU immigration, if not non-EU immigration. There would be


more control. Whether they would get it down to tens of thousands I'm


very much doubt. Bail saying that they are not worried about high


immigration but what Tim Montgomery said is they would rather have fewer


people from Romania and more technicians from India, doctors from


Australia. It's not as if within the Brexit camp there is a single view


about what should happen to immigration. There would be more


control over it you migrants, that's the point. Picking up from what you


just said, there would be a non-discriminatory policy you would


have between EU and non-EU immigrants which I'm in favour of.


The Observer has got massive boost the PM as over 600 colonists reject


Brexit. -- 600 economists. I didn't participate in these surveys as it


was the royalty canonic society but I would have said, I'm in the 12%


that would have said no to this. This looks like groupthink. We


remember the 364 economists that condemned the budget in nearly


1980s. It was always a joke at the time, misses that you said,.


Economists who think it was terrific. She said, thank goodness I


wasn't asked for a third. As it happened the budget was the right


thing to do at the time and I remember when we were thrown out of


the ERM groupthink said this would be a disaster, and a few of us said


this is great. Again, groupthink over the euro. They said we must


join the year road, we're going to lose all this trade. A few of us


said this was nonsense and we were right. Pat Lam. -- hang-up on.


Entering the exchange-rate mechanism in 1990 and then joining the year


road, there was a large group of people including myself who said


these are an wise things. I think it's rewriting history to say it was


a tiny minority. After Black Wednesday a range of people said


with lower sterling growth will take. I don't think it's quite as


complete a groupthink as you are saying. I still think it was


groupthink. Ira member it clearly because I was in the bank at the


time. When we were thrown out of the ERM there was no doubt that there


were a vast majority of people who thought this would be a disaster


including people like the CBI. Can I link this to immigration. Oddly


enough, paradoxically, the one thing that would reduce immigration


sharply and quickly is if we voted for Brexit and the Remain Campaign


were right. If the economy goes into slump, there went been the jobs that


will attract people to come here. If the Brexit campaigners are right and


the economy takes off, we will need all these extra immigrants to fill


the jobs that become available. That is somewhat tendentious. There is


another argument which is that the benefits of otherwise of immigration


and who comes in. Robert Samuelson, his economist joke was that the


trouble with economists is we've predicted five of the last two


recessions. Whether people sitting at home think this is any better


than astrology I'm not quite sure. It's the old joke that economic


forecasting is there to make astrology look good. You raised it


that part of this is about the entire future of the country, part


of it is about the future of the Conservative Party. The mail on


Sunday has John Major savaging boorish Brexit. It's very


unpleasant. It is very unpleasant and both sides of the campaign have


come out with very few accolades. I was looking at the Treasury Select


Committee report that came out on Friday, they condemned both sides.


It was critical of both sides. I think on both sides there's been a


enormous distortion of the facts. I think they believe have distorted


how much money we send to the European Union and the remains I'd


have distorted the economic impact. I think Ruth is underselling


herself. Ruth used to be part of the Vote Leave campaign and you pulled


out because of the way it was campaigning and twisting economic


numbers which you disapproved of. I wish not told you that! LAUGHTER


Very interesting. Would you like to add to that? I think will change the


subject. I thought the really weird story of the day about this is the


Sunday Telegraph, Cameron is too rich to care about migration. A


pinny veld attack on Remain leaders, Priti Patel talking about David


Cameron and George Osborne saying they are too rich to care about


migration. Has she not met Boris Johnson? She thinks she can say it


because of her background which is very interesting. This again is


really about the Tory party. More and more wars within the Tory party,


its positioning as to what will happen after the referendum. I saw


the BBC website this morning suggesting there would be some


challenge to Cameron's position even if he won. I see this as another


Tory was story. It comes down to what Reid said about Priti Patel's


background. Her family were Ugandan Asians who were thrown out by Eddie


Armin. The Conservative Prime Minister took on the right of his


own party by saying as a matter of moral principle, we need to allow


these people to come to Britain. That is what allowed Priti Patel's


family to come to Britain. The other thing I find slightly odd about what


she said is that these rich people, then narrow self-interest failed to


pay due regard to the wider public. She is a minister in work and


pensions, this is a department involved in cutting housing benefit,


the bedroom tax, changes to tax credits, toughening up rules on


disabled people. I think it's slightly risky for a minister in


that department to talk about the wider interest, given their record.


She's not particularly associated with those policies. She's a member


of the department. She personally is particularly associated. If she


comes out now and says those policies are wrong, fairness. This


is the Sunday Telegraph, Nato generals saying an invader is vital.


Let's move on. -- in vote. I like the Telegraph story, books are now


status symbols. This is from the jefe stubble, Sean Hamilton has said


that books have become a way of displaying their taste of friends


when they would actually read the digital version. You can't show


what's on your iPad but you put the books on your shelf and you buy


them. What did you make of this? I think it has always been the case.


People buy books to say, look at me. Let's be honest about this. I've


always done it. LAUGHTER At least your honest! The number of American


politicians are used into view in their offices, they had all these


beautiful leather bound books which were bought by the yard and stuck in


and never opened. 20 of 35 years ago I bought Stephen Hawkins A Brief


History of time. I bet there are many people around Britain who have


unread copies. I got to page five. That's better than me! LAUGHTER One


of the other stories which is a rather sad story whatever happened,


we don't quite know the facts but the daily Mirror and the sun have


got it. Johnny Depp says, she just wants my millions. Actress wife says


she feared for her life. This is the story of the break-up of Johnny Depp


and his wife Amber. He is one of the best-known, highest-paid actors in


the world. It's a rather sad story. Yes. It's sad, unimportant,


irrelevant and absolutely fascinating. Welcome to the world of


newspapers! The daily Mirror has got his wife's version alleging that he


was high and drunk. The Sun has got his version accusing his wife of


having bisexual relations. I have no idea of the truth of any of these


allegations. But if this goes to court, and is thrashed out in


public, it's a bit like OJ Simpson. The drama on the BBC a few weeks


ago. This is going to be like that if it goes to court. I think I hope


it doesn't because I think it's a bit unseemly. But we are all going


to watch it. It's the sort of story some others tut-tut about but we


read because it's an interesting human drama that we think we know.


All I remember about Johnny Depp of course is the various acting roles.


The other thing one remembers is the apology by him and his wife about


the dogs they had in Australia. It was bizarre. When people say he was


off his head on drugs and Ring, they both looked but they were off their


heads. It was extraordinary. I think the Australians were fed up they


brought these dogs into the country. One Australian said something fairly


brutal as to where they could go. It really wasn't good enough. It was


very strange because when you saw that apology it was almost like


satire. As you agree, I'm told he got $95 million for one movie


appearance, that must make you a completely different person from the


rest of humanity, which is perhaps some of the reasons why we are


fascinated by this. It's a bit like footballers. At the age of 20 they


earn millions and millions. Perhaps the astonishing thing is how few of


them go off the rails because the good football managers look after


them and protect them. If you get this sudden amounts of money, some


of them are going to do strange things. Finally, the Sunday Times,


plastic fivers end is of dirty money. We've got plastic banknotes.


I liked dirty money. LAUGHTER Some of us like any old money! I'd not be


able to go off the rails with ?14 million. In Australia and New


Zealand they've had plastic money for years. It's much better, it's


cleaner, nicer, more enduring. Bring it on. This was one of Mervyn King's


last projects at the Bank of England, to prepare the grounds. Now


it's coming in. I think it's a really good idea. It means that


those of us who forget the odd fibre in a jeans pocket and stick it in


the washing machine will not have to pull out the bits and pieces. This


will survive a 95 degrees washing cycle. That's what I really wanted


to know on a Sunday morning. They are harder to forge. There are more


security measures built into them. Can we not for once say progress is


good, tradition is not always right? Sometimes. Let's agree. Progress is


good. I shall make a note. That's it for The Papers.


Thanks to Ruth and Peter. Just a reminder we take a look


at tomorrows front pages every


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