10/10/2016 The Papers


10/10/2016

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Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

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With me are Fay Schlesinger, Head of News at the Times

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and the New York Times reporter Dan Bilefsky.

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Let's have a look at some of the front pages. Starting with The

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Guardian, it leads what the US presidential debate and the decision

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by Paul Ryan the Republican party's most senior elected politician not

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to campaign for Donald Trump. The Financial Times said his stance is a

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clear signal that Republican leaders have given up hope of Mr Trump

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winning the White House. The eye paper reports on a pole that gives

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Mrs Clinton a 14 point lead. The Telegraph says the BBC's new

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regulator will tell the corporation its falling short in its duty to

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reflect modern Britain by failing to put all the women on screen. The

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Treasury could lose up to 66 billion pounds a year in tax revenues

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according to The Times. One of Britain's biggest exporters is to

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quit the business lobby the CBI in protest at its stance against

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Brexit, according to The Daily Mail. Lots of talk about Brexit. We are

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going to get to that later. First it is The Donald. Six times on the

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front page of The Guardian. Grimacing, pouting... A lot of

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orange. It very orange man. Now, big Republican figure Paul Ryan. He's

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decided he's not going to campaign with Mr Trump and he's not going to

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support him. He's not withdrawing his endorsement, interestingly, but

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he is saying you are going to lose the White House, I don't care about

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you now it's about the house on the Senate. You could argue there's a

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sense of rats leaving a sinking ship. He is a big figure, he's been

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critical of Trump before. This is not his right-hand man that has

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abandoned him but he's a senior figure. I guess it is what people

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are saying is his watershed moment of this quite horrible video talking

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about grabbing women and treating women as second-class citizens, even

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making comments about his own daughter. Paul Ryan said, enough is

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enough. He hasn't said I believe others should be leaving him, he's

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leaving it to other people. Ryan is saying it's up to you what you

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decide. Doing it in that measured way might have more impact. We've

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seen others abandon Trump in more dramatic ways. This is quite serious

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and I guess there is that growing sense that it is becoming serious.

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Dan, practically what does this mean? Does it mean money that might

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have gone to Trump from the Republican party is actually now

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going to go to other races further down the ticket? Firstly, I think

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one has to say this is a huge hammer blow for Trump. When you have the

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highest elected Republican official in the land not withdrawing his

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support but saying he will not defend Trump, he's effectively

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ceding the presidency to Hillary. That's a huge psychological blow

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after Trump has had one of the worst weeks in his campaign. In terms of

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the financial effect, there was a conference call today between Mr

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Ryan and some of his Republican caucus and quite a few hardliners

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were defending Trump and lashing out at Ryan for abandoning him at the

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11th hour. It's not clear whether there will be a huge migration of

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financing at this point. There was some discussion in the last couple

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of days. At the end of the day Trump isn't going anywhere and it's too

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late in the campaign for that dynamic to change. One can expect

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that in recent days with Republicans clawing back their support that they

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could be some financial ramifications. A really key question

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is whether somebody with political clout like Ryan takes voters with

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him or not. We saw it a bit during Brexit in this country and we are

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seeing it in the American campaign. This core of voters who support

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Trump, a figure has been put at 30% of would-be Republican supporters

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who are so dedicated to Trump that the more you criticise him the

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harder they dig in. That's what they like. Some of them will be thinking

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I say those things at home, I don't really mean them. It's so different

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from when we sit in this country looking at America and thinking, how

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can somebody think that this tallies with what could be a potential

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presidential material? Those are not the people he needs to convince. The

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die-hard Trumpists will support him. It did not swing the pendulum. Let's

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move to the i Paper. Presidential prospects damaged after the Speaker

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of the house says he went campaign. The bottom line is, while they see

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the White House has gone, and that means potentially two pics of

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Supreme Court justices over the next four years gone to the Republican

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side. They are particularly concerned about the Senate going the

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way of the Democratic party as well. And that is something that not only

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will, as far as legislation is concerned, cause problems for the

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Republican party, it means that they cannot get their agenda of the

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ground. Yes. Regardless of the outcome of this election now, it's

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going to be so fascinating going forward. The way that we will see

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America behave going forward. We don't have this division in Britain.

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It's a totally different system in the States. In terms of the idea of

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a proper hammer blow and looking at the polls, you have now seen an 11%

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difference between Clinton and Trump going forward which shows this idea

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of a hammer blow might be starting to make the difference. The

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prediction seems to be that Trump is going to lose but he's still on the

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ballot and as long as he's on the ballot he win. How does he come back

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from this, Dan? If you were advising him, what would you say? The thing

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is for him to come back... Or is it too late? In the run-up to the

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Brexit vote in this country the polls showed Remain ahead and then

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we woke up the next morning shocked that Brexit had one. In terms of

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Trump changing the rules of the game at this point, he has a particular

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personality that has shown itself in new 22 advice and immutable to the

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polls. He is who he is. It's hard to see how he could have this kind of

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huge cataclysmic metamorphosis with one month left before the ballots. I

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find it hard to see unless you give him a lobotomy or shock treatment

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that he is going to change in a viable way. That is his attraction

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to his core constituency. Whether that's enough to win is a whole

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other matter. This type of him bragging about his groping threatens

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to energise and decided millennial voters and younger women who might

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get off their seats and go and vote because they find the idea of a

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Trump presidency anathema. I watched quite a lot of the debate. Hillary

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didn't really land any massive blows. It didn't feel obvious that

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she had one, in spite of the most horrific video having come out. If

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you're turning away from Trump and looking to Clinton for inspiration

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it doesn't feel like it's there. That's the problem, isn't it? These

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are two of the most unpopular candidates in the history of the

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presidency. Hillary is a dreadful candidate, there's no question about

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it. She's not a good candidate and she has to have a narrative beyond

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not being Trump. We spoke to a lot of undecided voters today including

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many women and my impression is that there is such a viscerally strong

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reaction among women to his groping and over nasty sexism, and also the

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fact American politics has become like a literal mud wrestling reality

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game show that is so unpresidential and out of sync with the kind of

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decorum of the modern American presidency, that there is a backlash

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fermenting among voters and not just Hillary supporters. Some people who

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might be in favour of Trump are now thinking maybe this guy isn't so

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presidential. There's no doubt people are tired of dynastic

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politics, they are tired of the Clintons. She herself has admitted

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she's not very effective at connecting with people on a human

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level. Anything can happen. Absolutely. The Times, hard Brexit

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could cost ?66 billion a year. Just to put this in context, the

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projected revenues for Britain for 2016-17 R ?716 billion. It's nearly

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one tenth. This is contained in a Treasury document which has been

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linked to us. It's what has been given to ministers, when they are

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talking about what is Brexit going to look like, this is worse case

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scenario. This is the idea we come out of the negotiations, haven't

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sorted out any trade deals and go straight onto the WTO tariff. That

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is worse case and it probably won't be that bad but they still put the

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possibilities from a loss of ?38 billion to ?66 billion a year. That

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is the idea we become less attractive for trading, that foreign

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investment doesn't come in. We haven't seen all the details but I

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think what's interesting in this debate between hard and soft Brexit

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is your seeing the dividing lines we saw in the run-up to Brexit and it's

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getting a bit nasty. Is this the same document? Yes. They haven't

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changed it at all. Does it have more voracity now that it's been leaked

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from a Brexit government as opposed to from a Remain government? It's

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the same thing. The pro-hard Brexit people, Liam Fox's ilk, will argue

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this is scaremongering, this is putting figures out there that are

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worst-case scenarios. I think it's starting to... The dividing lines

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are rearing their ugly head again. Dan, is this project fear or is this

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Project reality? Now that Brexit is, or at least triggering Article 50 is

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five months away... My impression is that this country is experiencing a

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wake-up call where there was a lot of unreality about the Brexit vote.

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May was waffling about her real plan and now the country has woken up to

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the fact Brexit is going to happen, the pound has died, prices for

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importers are going to go up. Prices of goods are going to go up for

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consumers, unemployment could increase and suddenly thinking the

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future economy is not looking so rosy. There is go straight onto The

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Daily Mail. JCB tycoon quits anti-Brexit CBI. One of Britain's

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biggest exporters is to quit the CBI in protest at its stance against

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Brexit. The CBI is saying it's going to cost us a lot of money, the

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Treasury is backing that but this man is leaving the CBI. This is Lord

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Bamford, Tory donor and a very pro-Brexit in the run-up to Brexit.

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He wrote all his workers in the run-up to say we should be voting

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Brexit, Brexit is the way this country will succeed. It's not that

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surprising that his company would quit the CBI. The CBI in The Times

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this morning, we had an interview with the head of the CBI saying the

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proposal from the Home Secretary last week on foreign workers, this

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is the idea businesses would have to identify foreign workers, it was a

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terrible policy, divisive. Almost a suggestion of it being racist and

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anti-business. Again this is dividing lines and you can feel, The

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Daily Mail was a paperback came out for Brexit, and you can feel there

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is a drive of saying we need to put our foot down, we need to have the

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Brexit that we really wanted which was outside the single market. The

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Times was Remain. Yes. It's clear from that headline! It's great to

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see you both. Thank you for joining us.

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Don't forget all the front pages are online on the BBC News website

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where you can read a detailed review of the papers.

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It's all there for you, seven days a week at bbc.co.uk/papers

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and you can see us there too, with each night's edition

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of The Papers being posted on the page shortly

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No need to wait until tomorrow morning to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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