27/10/2016 The Papers

Hello and welcome to look ahead at what the papers will be bringing to

us tomorrow, with me, his Jason Eaton and Robin Curtis from Society

of British economists. Let us start with tomorrow's front pages.

Starting with the express. The Express leads with news

that the economy has grown in the three months since the vote

to leave the European Union. The Financial Times also

goes with the economy - focusing on Nissan continuing car

manufacturing in the North East . The Guardian leads

with the same story - saying it will be a boost

for Theresa May . The i says rival manufacturers

could also ask for help from the government to cope

with the pressures of Brexit The Times says that they gave Nissan

a written promise to protect them from the problems of Brexit. And the

NHS only gets back half the money it is owed from foreign patients. And

the Daily Mail leads with a same story, calling it a sick joke.

So we have to start with Nissan. Jason, the Times thinks it can

answer that question about what assurances if any, are given by

Nissan. First of all on the face of it this is very good news, if you

are in Sunderland this is excellent news, your job is secured. You could

argue that this is due to the skilled workforce. Then you start to

think how did they get this deal, The Times is saying that Greg Clark,

the Business Secretary did a lightning trip to Japan in what

sounds like panic because Nissan was saying that the Mike Pollak because

of Brexit. This was only last month. He has managed to come back and this

has come back opaque and cloudy, saying we have some assurances to

Nissan, we are not going to tell you what they are, but they won't be

subject to punitive tariffs if we leave, when we leave the EU. Now it

looks like Nissan, probably knows more about what the government to go

shooting tactics up for Brexit than anybody else in the country. The PM

says they will not give a running commentary, they have definitely

given a running commentary to Nissan. Then there is this other

issue, the other sectors are going to say, Nissan is getting a decent

steel, why aren't we? That is going to cause problems and there is

another problem, if we are going to prevent Nissan from being subject to

punitive trade tariffs, that actually breaks EU law, because that

is state aid and were not allowed to do that. But if we are out of the

EU? It makes it harder to strike a new trade deal because they can save

can't do this and it is even harder under the WTO rules also to strike a

deal. So maybe what is on the face of it good news, a good amount of

post Brexit cheer, but have a long sting in the tail. It will be

fascinating to watch that. Let us move on, to the i. This sort of,

welcoming headline, comes on the same day as we had better than

expected GDP figures so what is not to cheer? It looks great, I had to

say, that the word 7000 jobs protected, global manufacturers set

also to demand UK Government protection. It has that feel about

protectionism, subsidies, inefficient, who is going to pay for

it. Just to say that is what it looks like. On the GDP figures, it

is great news, much better than expected, the world didn't collapse

after Brexit but it is all spending on services, the rest of the sectors

didn't do well at all and it is about the fact that wages have been

running ahead of inflation so people have got money in their pockets.

Now, it looks like next year, because of the big fall in the

pound, inflation goes up, wages won't go up so much, and so that is

going to be squeezed and really, unless companies are again to get

the sort of protection that Nissan has got, are they going to invest in

Britain, so we are worried about investment next year, we are worried

about consumer spending. Let us go to the Financial Times which

reports, on the conclusion of this stand-off, between the EU and Canada

over the trade deal, as do you read this? What is interesting is that a

trade deal, with Canada which I think was nine years in the making

almost collapsed completely because of a small region of Belgium with

3.5 million people, almost as many cows, didn't like it because they

said it was going to undermine workers' rights and also their

competitiveness in the agriculture sector. And the Brexiteers on the

verge of collapse shows Haskell erotic Europe is and this is why we

can't do business. The Remainers, said if they can't get this deal

through, which is actually not that complicated because it doesn't

include financial services, then what hope have we got striking a

trade deal. Nothing has changed much, it is quite interesting in

that respect but it does underline how difficult these deals are.

That's the EU still needs for major deals to go down not just with

national governments but with some countries down to regional

governments and that could be a problem when we start our long-term

the decisions with the EU. Lessons for our future negotiations? First

of all we don't have any trade negotiators, so we have two trained

them up and it is going to be really hard. Because when we do actually

try to negotiate, of course, small sections of countries are going to

have a say, it is going to be really, really difficult. A complete

change of subject, the Daily Telegraph, the NHS loses millions to

foreigners and the Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt is going to do something

about it. This is a National Audit Office report, and it is about

collecting money from foreigners that should be paid in the NHS. They

are saying that 500 million is what they should be collecting. They are

collecting about half of that. That sounds like wow, those nasty

foreigners that aren't paying their bills. But actually, the people in

the hospitals aren't collecting it, half of them don't even know the

rules and the other half don't think it is their job to collect it. I

think the really important point, is what is the budget for the NHS, it

is about ?118 billion, how much money are we talking about not

collecting? It is about ?250,000. Sorry ?250 million. It is not quite

that bad. But it is no .2% of the budget. It is a tiny amount,

delegate to send in squads of accountants, specialists, retired

doctors to collect the money. It will probably cost as much to

collect it, as they owe, I think this is a copout. Is this easy.

Actually, I'm going to stick up for the government which doesn't happen

very often. If you read the full report, it actually says that the

money being collected, from migrants was really low, it was something

like 73 million in 2012-2013. They have now done an incredible job of

going up to 255 million. And that is slightly below the target, but they

are actually making quite good progress, they also say and this is

really interesting, they actually have no way. Of precisely measuring,

how much we are owed by foreign visitors, and this aid is almost

impossible to calculate which makes the point of this story quite

difficult because it may not be as bad as it seems and it could be

worse. There is one other point which I would like to make which is

quite important, they talk about doctors and nurses not doing enough

to collect money, they said actually there is quite a big issue of Public

health. If you have somebody coming to this country with a very

contagious virus or disease, they need to get to hospital otherwise

they can give that to other people and you have a major public health

crisis. They are saying, that if you are making it seem like show us the

credit card. That is actually good stop people from getting the

treatment that they need and other people need them to get which is

quite important. The Guardian has another health story, a different

one about the male contraceptive jab which has been effective in trials.

This is quite a small study but has had quite rheumatic results. Well it

has earned on the face of it it looks pretty good, a good idea that

contraception should not be left to women taking pills. But I thought

some of the side effects were, a bit, might put some of the men. Some

side effects, depression, acne. One of them may not put them off,

increased the PDO. It doesn't quite make sense? But it may be tough, if

it gives you spotting this. Let us move on in fact back to the

Telegraph, which has in fact, a very amusing photo, they pumpkin, who

might remind you of somebody. There it is. A scary sight, this

Halloween. It is going wild on social media. People carving them,

even putting Donald Trump weeks. He's almost the same colour, and we

have only got ten days until the US election. And you can understand why

people think it is quite canny. Also Hillary Clinton with Michelle Obama

who has been giving her a real boost? She has, and it is amazing

how Michelle Obama has really come to the fore more recently, she was

always a great support and now she has her own person. She is really

helping Hillary a lot because women believe in Michelle Obama, she has

done a huge amount for women's. Yes, she has an appeal that Hillary

doesn't have, they deployed her today in North Carolina, a swing

state that has been Republican in the past. They think they can get it

this time around, she is Hillary's greatest asset. The Telegraph has

got another great photo on its front page, unexpected sovereign in the

banking area. Where is she? Visiting a Waitrose supermarket in pound bree

yesterday. It looks like she wishes she was somewhere else

. She seemed apparently especially cheered by the array of cheeses. And

there are some nice ones where she is smiling. And looks very happy to

be there, but a couple of the papers have picked up this very glum one,

which I think it is a bit unfair. We can see the smiling one, have the

Queen enjoyed a supermarket sweep. The day out, in the village built by

Charles. There is a story about her collecting Tesco Clubcard vouchers.

She is now again to Waitrose as well. Which of the photographs do

you prefer? I like the smiley one although I like the caption. Terry

very clever. That is just marvellous, thank you so much, don't

forget that all of the front pages are online. On the BBC News website.

It is all there for you, seven days a week, and you can see us thereto

with them posted on the page shortly after we had finished. The weather

is next.