27/10/2016 The Papers


27/10/2016

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Hello and welcome to look ahead at what the papers will be bringing to

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us tomorrow, with me, his Jason Eaton and Robin Curtis from Society

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of British economists. Let us start with tomorrow's front pages.

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Starting with the express. The Express leads with news

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that the economy has grown in the three months since the vote

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to leave the European Union. The Financial Times also

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goes with the economy - focusing on Nissan continuing car

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manufacturing in the North East . The Guardian leads

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with the same story - saying it will be a boost

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for Theresa May . The i says rival manufacturers

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could also ask for help from the government to cope

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with the pressures of Brexit The Times says that they gave Nissan

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a written promise to protect them from the problems of Brexit. And the

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NHS only gets back half the money it is owed from foreign patients. And

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the Daily Mail leads with a same story, calling it a sick joke.

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So we have to start with Nissan. Jason, the Times thinks it can

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answer that question about what assurances if any, are given by

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Nissan. First of all on the face of it this is very good news, if you

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are in Sunderland this is excellent news, your job is secured. You could

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argue that this is due to the skilled workforce. Then you start to

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think how did they get this deal, The Times is saying that Greg Clark,

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the Business Secretary did a lightning trip to Japan in what

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sounds like panic because Nissan was saying that the Mike Pollak because

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of Brexit. This was only last month. He has managed to come back and this

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has come back opaque and cloudy, saying we have some assurances to

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Nissan, we are not going to tell you what they are, but they won't be

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subject to punitive tariffs if we leave, when we leave the EU. Now it

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looks like Nissan, probably knows more about what the government to go

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shooting tactics up for Brexit than anybody else in the country. The PM

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says they will not give a running commentary, they have definitely

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given a running commentary to Nissan. Then there is this other

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issue, the other sectors are going to say, Nissan is getting a decent

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steel, why aren't we? That is going to cause problems and there is

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another problem, if we are going to prevent Nissan from being subject to

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punitive trade tariffs, that actually breaks EU law, because that

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is state aid and were not allowed to do that. But if we are out of the

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EU? It makes it harder to strike a new trade deal because they can save

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can't do this and it is even harder under the WTO rules also to strike a

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deal. So maybe what is on the face of it good news, a good amount of

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post Brexit cheer, but have a long sting in the tail. It will be

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fascinating to watch that. Let us move on, to the i. This sort of,

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welcoming headline, comes on the same day as we had better than

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expected GDP figures so what is not to cheer? It looks great, I had to

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say, that the word 7000 jobs protected, global manufacturers set

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also to demand UK Government protection. It has that feel about

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protectionism, subsidies, inefficient, who is going to pay for

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it. Just to say that is what it looks like. On the GDP figures, it

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is great news, much better than expected, the world didn't collapse

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after Brexit but it is all spending on services, the rest of the sectors

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didn't do well at all and it is about the fact that wages have been

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running ahead of inflation so people have got money in their pockets.

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Now, it looks like next year, because of the big fall in the

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pound, inflation goes up, wages won't go up so much, and so that is

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going to be squeezed and really, unless companies are again to get

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the sort of protection that Nissan has got, are they going to invest in

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Britain, so we are worried about investment next year, we are worried

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about consumer spending. Let us go to the Financial Times which

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reports, on the conclusion of this stand-off, between the EU and Canada

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over the trade deal, as do you read this? What is interesting is that a

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trade deal, with Canada which I think was nine years in the making

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almost collapsed completely because of a small region of Belgium with

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3.5 million people, almost as many cows, didn't like it because they

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said it was going to undermine workers' rights and also their

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competitiveness in the agriculture sector. And the Brexiteers on the

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verge of collapse shows Haskell erotic Europe is and this is why we

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can't do business. The Remainers, said if they can't get this deal

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through, which is actually not that complicated because it doesn't

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include financial services, then what hope have we got striking a

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trade deal. Nothing has changed much, it is quite interesting in

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that respect but it does underline how difficult these deals are.

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That's the EU still needs for major deals to go down not just with

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national governments but with some countries down to regional

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governments and that could be a problem when we start our long-term

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the decisions with the EU. Lessons for our future negotiations? First

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of all we don't have any trade negotiators, so we have two trained

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them up and it is going to be really hard. Because when we do actually

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try to negotiate, of course, small sections of countries are going to

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have a say, it is going to be really, really difficult. A complete

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change of subject, the Daily Telegraph, the NHS loses millions to

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foreigners and the Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt is going to do something

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about it. This is a National Audit Office report, and it is about

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collecting money from foreigners that should be paid in the NHS. They

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are saying that 500 million is what they should be collecting. They are

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collecting about half of that. That sounds like wow, those nasty

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foreigners that aren't paying their bills. But actually, the people in

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the hospitals aren't collecting it, half of them don't even know the

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rules and the other half don't think it is their job to collect it. I

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think the really important point, is what is the budget for the NHS, it

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is about ?118 billion, how much money are we talking about not

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collecting? It is about ?250,000. Sorry ?250 million. It is not quite

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that bad. But it is no .2% of the budget. It is a tiny amount,

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delegate to send in squads of accountants, specialists, retired

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doctors to collect the money. It will probably cost as much to

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collect it, as they owe, I think this is a copout. Is this easy.

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Actually, I'm going to stick up for the government which doesn't happen

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very often. If you read the full report, it actually says that the

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money being collected, from migrants was really low, it was something

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like 73 million in 2012-2013. They have now done an incredible job of

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going up to 255 million. And that is slightly below the target, but they

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are actually making quite good progress, they also say and this is

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really interesting, they actually have no way. Of precisely measuring,

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how much we are owed by foreign visitors, and this aid is almost

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impossible to calculate which makes the point of this story quite

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difficult because it may not be as bad as it seems and it could be

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worse. There is one other point which I would like to make which is

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quite important, they talk about doctors and nurses not doing enough

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to collect money, they said actually there is quite a big issue of Public

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health. If you have somebody coming to this country with a very

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contagious virus or disease, they need to get to hospital otherwise

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they can give that to other people and you have a major public health

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crisis. They are saying, that if you are making it seem like show us the

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credit card. That is actually good stop people from getting the

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treatment that they need and other people need them to get which is

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quite important. The Guardian has another health story, a different

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one about the male contraceptive jab which has been effective in trials.

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This is quite a small study but has had quite rheumatic results. Well it

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has earned on the face of it it looks pretty good, a good idea that

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contraception should not be left to women taking pills. But I thought

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some of the side effects were, a bit, might put some of the men. Some

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side effects, depression, acne. One of them may not put them off,

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increased the PDO. It doesn't quite make sense? But it may be tough, if

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it gives you spotting this. Let us move on in fact back to the

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Telegraph, which has in fact, a very amusing photo, they pumpkin, who

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might remind you of somebody. There it is. A scary sight, this

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Halloween. It is going wild on social media. People carving them,

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even putting Donald Trump weeks. He's almost the same colour, and we

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have only got ten days until the US election. And you can understand why

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people think it is quite canny. Also Hillary Clinton with Michelle Obama

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who has been giving her a real boost? She has, and it is amazing

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how Michelle Obama has really come to the fore more recently, she was

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always a great support and now she has her own person. She is really

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helping Hillary a lot because women believe in Michelle Obama, she has

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done a huge amount for women's. Yes, she has an appeal that Hillary

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doesn't have, they deployed her today in North Carolina, a swing

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state that has been Republican in the past. They think they can get it

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this time around, she is Hillary's greatest asset. The Telegraph has

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got another great photo on its front page, unexpected sovereign in the

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banking area. Where is she? Visiting a Waitrose supermarket in pound bree

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yesterday. It looks like she wishes she was somewhere else

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. She seemed apparently especially cheered by the array of cheeses. And

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there are some nice ones where she is smiling. And looks very happy to

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be there, but a couple of the papers have picked up this very glum one,

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which I think it is a bit unfair. We can see the smiling one, have the

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Queen enjoyed a supermarket sweep. The day out, in the village built by

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Charles. There is a story about her collecting Tesco Clubcard vouchers.

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She is now again to Waitrose as well. Which of the photographs do

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you prefer? I like the smiley one although I like the caption. Terry

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very clever. That is just marvellous, thank you so much, don't

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forget that all of the front pages are online. On the BBC News website.

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It is all there for you, seven days a week, and you can see us thereto

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with them posted on the page shortly after we had finished. The weather

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is next.

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