23/11/2016 The Papers


23/11/2016

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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STUDIO: Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers

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will be bringing us tomorrow. With me are Caroline Wheeler, Political

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Editor of The Sunday Express and Ben Chu, Economics and Business Editor

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of The Independent. Let's have a look at tomorrow's front pages.

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Welcome to the both of you. The Metro leads on the news that Thomas

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Mair has been jailed for life after being found guilty of the murder of

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the Labour MP Jo Cox. Her husband, Brendan said he had nothing but pity

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for her killer. The Financial Times leads on the Autumn Statement - it

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says the Chancellor has put aside twenty seven billion pounds as a

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'Brexit shock absorber'. The Guardian has different figures on

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the cost of Brexit - the paper says Philip Hammond has conceded that

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Brexit will blow a fifty nine billion pound black hole in the

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public finances over the next five years. -- 50 ?9 million black hole.

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The Telegraph says Eurosceptic ministers have attacked the

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government's budget watchdog after it had a doom and gloom forecast

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post Brexit. "Britain's Match Fit for EU exit" - reads The Daily

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Express headline. And The Times says the Chancellor is building for

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Brexit - with a spending spree on housing, roads and railways. And

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finally the i splashes lots of facts about the Autumn Statement across

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its front page. Let's begin, we will start then, if we can, with the

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Financial Times, they headline with this ?27 billion figure, which they

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say is the Chancellor's shock absorber, is that a figure that we

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have looked at, where did they get the number from? Under the new

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fiscal rule, which he has designed for himself, he can read 50 billion,

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at the end of parliament, he is due to be boring 25 billion at the end

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of the particular fiscal year, it is the difference between what he is

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borrowing and what he can borrow, and what the Financial Times is

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pointing out is that he could effectively, if he chose to, if the

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economy held up reasonably well over five years, he could go on a

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spending splurge, just before the next election, 2020, jam tomorrow.

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That could be the strategy. Bound by Sturridge are a little bit at the

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moment, he will be able to rack the rules if things go as forecast. I

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don't know if you remember when George Osborne was Chancellor, he

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was going to loosen his belt before... Never worked out like

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that! Economy kept underperforming relative to expectations and hopes.

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There may well be a similar situation with Philip Hammond. The

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thing to say is, for all the doom and gloom, these are just forecast,

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plenty of express readers would point that out. When you are reading

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the front pages and you have read a list of them there are, the

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different newspapers have presented these figures in very different

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ways. -- list of them there. The Financial Times was very much on the

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remain side, the daily press was on the Brexit side, they have

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interpreted them very differently. Funnily enough, seeing this headline

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about this shock absorber, I want to say, isn't that incredibly sensible?

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We've never left the European Union, we don't know how it'll all play

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out. It seems a very sensible thing to do to make sure we have a pot of

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money should we need to if there is a great deal of uncertainty and we

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need to plug a hole somewhere, it seems like a sensible thing for any

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cautious Chancellor to do. Do you think people were shocked by the

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numbers today? As the FT points out, the economy's resilience has

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confounded commentators home and abroad. In the past few weeks we've

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been talking about all the good things in the economy. You've got to

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differentiate between short and long-term, a lot of the forecasts

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about the negative effects on Brexit, there were negative

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short-term ones but also a lot of reports and analyses to say you've

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got to look at the 2030 horizon, the 10-15 year horizon rather than the

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next few years after. The economic consensus was very firm that it

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would be negative. We do so much trade with Europe and it's hard to

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imagine a new trade deals would come in and offset that shock. It would

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be negative. What's interesting about the OBR's forecast, it accepts

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that analysis. It says trade, exports and imports will be weaker

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after Brexit. Than otherwise. They are going with the grain of academic

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opinion. In essence what they are saying is we don't know what'll

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happen, we can't forecast anything on a set of scenarios. We don't

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know how many trade deals we'll do in 2019, what countries will come

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forward. We don't know if we're going to leave the single market.

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Whatever is ahead what you want is according to the sketch in the FT is

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Captain Hammond in charge. If you've ever had the misfortune to be caught

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up in an in-flight emergency, Philip Hammond is the one if you want

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flying the plane. I don't mean he would fly it especially well but his

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delivery of the Autumn Statement suggests there would be something

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soothing about his voice on the tannoy as the aircraft began its

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terrifying descent. One other line, with a little more inflection, than

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if he was telling passengers the biscuits had run out. It felt a bit

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like that, didn't it? All calm despite the terrifying figure at the

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end of it all. The other thing to say about Philip Hammond, you made

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it very clear from the beginning that this was going to be a very

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different type of fiscal statement, he did not want to do George

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Osborne, pulling rabbits out of hats, left, right and centre, and he

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also said something that he said George Osborne was not doing, he did

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not want to interfere in other departments decisions, his job is to

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manage the rate of the economy and make sure we have a smooth Brexit,

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he was not going to do anything exciting and he did not disappoint

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us. Should we believe the front page of the Guardian, ?59 billion cost...

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Based on forecast. The OBE are themselves have stressed the

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uncertainty around their forecast, it is interesting to know that they

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have decided to pluck this out, this analysis, and try to break down to

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what extent this ?122 billion deterioration of the public

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finances, how much of that is attributable to the economic shock

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of Brexit. -- OBR. ?59 billion is the figure, how do they get to it,

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two things, primarily, lower productivity, being out of the EU

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will hurt the ability we have to grow, and also, migration, they are

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very consistent about this, in the six Tuesday have been predicting

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this, they say that higher internal migration, a lot of people are

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opposed to that, they say that helps the economy to grow quicker and

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hopes productivity growth. And that is the two reasons why it makes us

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worse off. They have stuck with their analytical guns on this. The

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other big story of the day... Moving on... The conviction of Thomas Mair

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for the murder of Jo Cox, that was one of the big stories of the day.

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Here is the front page of the Metro, which leads with a picture of

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Brendan Cox, we all agree, he has been amazing throughout this, the

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strength he has shown... And then the front page of the independent,

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they have this more tightly cropped picture of Thomas Mayor, there you

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go... Focusing on him, I wonder whether

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that is a good front page to focus upon. -- Thomas Mair. It seems that

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there has been a conscious decision made by some newspapers not to put

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the focus on him, the Guardian puts a picture of Jo Cox in her wedding

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dress, as does the Yorkshire evening Post. There has been a decision by

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some editors, editorial teams, that they do not want to make this man,

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who is described as a terrorist in many of the newspapers, the focus of

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the peace. He was given a very rare life sentence, that means he will

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die in jail. Actually, a lot of what we see, the words, the narratives

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around it, are about the love and warmth that Jo Cox had expressed,

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and the real feelings about her expressed by her own family. So much

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love and warmth of her, actually giving him the oxygen, given that it

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was his own hatred that destroyed this very bright light... Just

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before I get you to comment on your paper, and why they have done that,

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let me show you something we have had from the Yorkshire Post, we

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don't have the front page but there is a tweet, of the front page, and

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they go on to say, on the editorial, inside, that they are deciding not

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to put him on the front page because he is not important, he is

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forgotten, he has no power, he has been jailed for the rest of his

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life, and good riddance. They lead with a picture of her in her wedding

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dress. You can see where they are coming from, I respect the decisions

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of those newspapers who have said, the focus should be on Jo Cox and

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her family rather than this terrible man. I think you can argue the other

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way as well, white supremacy is not the dying force, very sadly, that we

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all hoped it was six months, one ago. It is. It is serious, not just

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in the UK, look at what is happening in America, they are having rallies

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in Washington where people are shouting "heil Trump" and in the

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wake of the European referendum, race hate crimes have spiked, the

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same in America. Face of a terrorist, that is the

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justification. Look at it. Think about it. Not brush it under the

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carpet and hope it will go away, confront it. That is a legitimate

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editorial decision. That is the comment of the times, that they are

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saying the far right is here, it is a growing threat, and we should be

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wise to that. Yes, several really interesting bits. They are making a

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stark warning that this is a real threat. Given that he did not

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disclose any evidence on his own behalf or mount any defence, again,

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yesterday, questions about his mental health, rather than the

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nature of the terrorist atrocity committed. It is interesting the

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focus has come back to that, but the times has an interesting follow-up,

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they now suggest the police are looking for accomplished is in this

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murder. Looking for the people who supplied the gun, and also, that the

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killer left his affairs in order before the attack. There was a real

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meticulous nature to the way he went about it. And also, the suggestion

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that he was going to kill his own mother as well. A lot of questions

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about how people become radicalised like this, in the same way as we

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talk about Islamic radicalisation, do they self radicalised, are they

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part of a bigger group, the way that you tackle them will be different on

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the nature -- depended upon an HR of how they get into this state, we

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have do have a serious look at how this is happening and not hope it

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will go away. -- depending upon the nature of how they get into this

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state. Thank you very much for joining us.

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