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STUDIO: Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers | :00:24. | :00:31. | |
will be bringing us tomorrow. With me are Caroline Wheeler, Political | :00:32. | :00:34. | |
Editor of The Sunday Express and Ben Chu, Economics and Business Editor | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
of The Independent. Let's have a look at tomorrow's front pages. | :00:37. | :00:37. | |
Welcome to the both of you. The Metro leads on the news that Thomas | :00:38. | :00:48. | |
Mair has been jailed for life after being found guilty of the murder of | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
the Labour MP Jo Cox. Her husband, Brendan said he had nothing but pity | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
for her killer. The Financial Times leads on the Autumn Statement - it | :00:55. | :00:56. | |
says the Chancellor has put aside twenty seven billion pounds as a | :00:57. | :01:00. | |
'Brexit shock absorber'. The Guardian has different figures on | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
the cost of Brexit - the paper says Philip Hammond has conceded that | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
Brexit will blow a fifty nine billion pound black hole in the | :01:06. | :01:07. | |
public finances over the next five years. -- 50 ?9 million black hole. | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
The Telegraph says Eurosceptic ministers have attacked the | :01:11. | :01:14. | |
government's budget watchdog after it had a doom and gloom forecast | :01:15. | :01:25. | |
post Brexit. "Britain's Match Fit for EU exit" - reads The Daily | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
Express headline. And The Times says the Chancellor is building for | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
Brexit - with a spending spree on housing, roads and railways. And | :01:34. | :01:37. | |
finally the i splashes lots of facts about the Autumn Statement across | :01:38. | :01:46. | |
its front page. Let's begin, we will start then, if we can, with the | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
Financial Times, they headline with this ?27 billion figure, which they | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
say is the Chancellor's shock absorber, is that a figure that we | :01:58. | :02:00. | |
have looked at, where did they get the number from? Under the new | :02:01. | :02:08. | |
fiscal rule, which he has designed for himself, he can read 50 billion, | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
at the end of parliament, he is due to be boring 25 billion at the end | :02:14. | :02:19. | |
of the particular fiscal year, it is the difference between what he is | :02:20. | :02:22. | |
borrowing and what he can borrow, and what the Financial Times is | :02:23. | :02:25. | |
pointing out is that he could effectively, if he chose to, if the | :02:26. | :02:29. | |
economy held up reasonably well over five years, he could go on a | :02:30. | :02:32. | |
spending splurge, just before the next election, 2020, jam tomorrow. | :02:33. | :02:41. | |
That could be the strategy. Bound by Sturridge are a little bit at the | :02:42. | :02:44. | |
moment, he will be able to rack the rules if things go as forecast. I | :02:45. | :02:54. | |
don't know if you remember when George Osborne was Chancellor, he | :02:55. | :02:58. | |
was going to loosen his belt before... Never worked out like | :02:59. | :03:02. | |
that! Economy kept underperforming relative to expectations and hopes. | :03:03. | :03:08. | |
There may well be a similar situation with Philip Hammond. The | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
thing to say is, for all the doom and gloom, these are just forecast, | :03:13. | :03:15. | |
plenty of express readers would point that out. When you are reading | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
the front pages and you have read a list of them there are, the | :03:21. | :03:23. | |
different newspapers have presented these figures in very different | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
ways. -- list of them there. The Financial Times was very much on the | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
remain side, the daily press was on the Brexit side, they have | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
interpreted them very differently. Funnily enough, seeing this headline | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
about this shock absorber, I want to say, isn't that incredibly sensible? | :03:41. | :03:48. | |
We've never left the European Union, we don't know how it'll all play | :03:49. | :03:52. | |
out. It seems a very sensible thing to do to make sure we have a pot of | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
money should we need to if there is a great deal of uncertainty and we | :03:57. | :04:01. | |
need to plug a hole somewhere, it seems like a sensible thing for any | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
cautious Chancellor to do. Do you think people were shocked by the | :04:06. | :04:09. | |
numbers today? As the FT points out, the economy's resilience has | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
confounded commentators home and abroad. In the past few weeks we've | :04:14. | :04:17. | |
been talking about all the good things in the economy. You've got to | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
differentiate between short and long-term, a lot of the forecasts | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
about the negative effects on Brexit, there were negative | :04:26. | :04:27. | |
short-term ones but also a lot of reports and analyses to say you've | :04:28. | :04:34. | |
got to look at the 2030 horizon, the 10-15 year horizon rather than the | :04:35. | :04:40. | |
next few years after. The economic consensus was very firm that it | :04:41. | :04:43. | |
would be negative. We do so much trade with Europe and it's hard to | :04:44. | :04:48. | |
imagine a new trade deals would come in and offset that shock. It would | :04:49. | :04:53. | |
be negative. What's interesting about the OBR's forecast, it accepts | :04:54. | :04:59. | |
that analysis. It says trade, exports and imports will be weaker | :05:00. | :05:02. | |
after Brexit. Than otherwise. They are going with the grain of academic | :05:03. | :05:09. | |
opinion. In essence what they are saying is we don't know what'll | :05:10. | :05:12. | |
happen, we can't forecast anything on a set of scenarios. We don't | :05:13. | :05:26. | |
know how many trade deals we'll do in 2019, what countries will come | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
forward. We don't know if we're going to leave the single market. | :05:31. | :05:32. | |
Whatever is ahead what you want is according to the sketch in the FT is | :05:33. | :05:35. | |
Captain Hammond in charge. If you've ever had the misfortune to be caught | :05:36. | :05:38. | |
up in an in-flight emergency, Philip Hammond is the one if you want | :05:39. | :05:41. | |
flying the plane. I don't mean he would fly it especially well but his | :05:42. | :05:44. | |
delivery of the Autumn Statement suggests there would be something | :05:45. | :05:47. | |
soothing about his voice on the tannoy as the aircraft began its | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
terrifying descent. One other line, with a little more inflection, than | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
if he was telling passengers the biscuits had run out. It felt a bit | :05:57. | :06:00. | |
like that, didn't it? All calm despite the terrifying figure at the | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
end of it all. The other thing to say about Philip Hammond, you made | :06:07. | :06:08. | |
it very clear from the beginning that this was going to be a very | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
different type of fiscal statement, he did not want to do George | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
Osborne, pulling rabbits out of hats, left, right and centre, and he | :06:17. | :06:20. | |
also said something that he said George Osborne was not doing, he did | :06:21. | :06:24. | |
not want to interfere in other departments decisions, his job is to | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
manage the rate of the economy and make sure we have a smooth Brexit, | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
he was not going to do anything exciting and he did not disappoint | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
us. Should we believe the front page of the Guardian, ?59 billion cost... | :06:37. | :06:44. | |
Based on forecast. The OBE are themselves have stressed the | :06:45. | :06:49. | |
uncertainty around their forecast, it is interesting to know that they | :06:50. | :06:52. | |
have decided to pluck this out, this analysis, and try to break down to | :06:53. | :07:00. | |
what extent this ?122 billion deterioration of the public | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
finances, how much of that is attributable to the economic shock | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
of Brexit. -- OBR. ?59 billion is the figure, how do they get to it, | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
two things, primarily, lower productivity, being out of the EU | :07:13. | :07:17. | |
will hurt the ability we have to grow, and also, migration, they are | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
very consistent about this, in the six Tuesday have been predicting | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
this, they say that higher internal migration, a lot of people are | :07:26. | :07:30. | |
opposed to that, they say that helps the economy to grow quicker and | :07:31. | :07:38. | |
hopes productivity growth. And that is the two reasons why it makes us | :07:39. | :07:45. | |
worse off. They have stuck with their analytical guns on this. The | :07:46. | :07:50. | |
other big story of the day... Moving on... The conviction of Thomas Mair | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
for the murder of Jo Cox, that was one of the big stories of the day. | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
Here is the front page of the Metro, which leads with a picture of | :08:00. | :08:06. | |
Brendan Cox, we all agree, he has been amazing throughout this, the | :08:07. | :08:09. | |
strength he has shown... And then the front page of the independent, | :08:10. | :08:18. | |
they have this more tightly cropped picture of Thomas Mayor, there you | :08:19. | :08:19. | |
go... Focusing on him, I wonder whether | :08:20. | :08:27. | |
that is a good front page to focus upon. -- Thomas Mair. It seems that | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
there has been a conscious decision made by some newspapers not to put | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
the focus on him, the Guardian puts a picture of Jo Cox in her wedding | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
dress, as does the Yorkshire evening Post. There has been a decision by | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
some editors, editorial teams, that they do not want to make this man, | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
who is described as a terrorist in many of the newspapers, the focus of | :08:51. | :08:56. | |
the peace. He was given a very rare life sentence, that means he will | :08:57. | :09:02. | |
die in jail. Actually, a lot of what we see, the words, the narratives | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
around it, are about the love and warmth that Jo Cox had expressed, | :09:07. | :09:11. | |
and the real feelings about her expressed by her own family. So much | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
love and warmth of her, actually giving him the oxygen, given that it | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
was his own hatred that destroyed this very bright light... Just | :09:22. | :09:29. | |
before I get you to comment on your paper, and why they have done that, | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
let me show you something we have had from the Yorkshire Post, we | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
don't have the front page but there is a tweet, of the front page, and | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
they go on to say, on the editorial, inside, that they are deciding not | :09:43. | :09:45. | |
to put him on the front page because he is not important, he is | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
forgotten, he has no power, he has been jailed for the rest of his | :09:50. | :09:53. | |
life, and good riddance. They lead with a picture of her in her wedding | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
dress. You can see where they are coming from, I respect the decisions | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
of those newspapers who have said, the focus should be on Jo Cox and | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
her family rather than this terrible man. I think you can argue the other | :10:08. | :10:14. | |
way as well, white supremacy is not the dying force, very sadly, that we | :10:15. | :10:21. | |
all hoped it was six months, one ago. It is. It is serious, not just | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
in the UK, look at what is happening in America, they are having rallies | :10:27. | :10:32. | |
in Washington where people are shouting "heil Trump" and in the | :10:33. | :10:37. | |
wake of the European referendum, race hate crimes have spiked, the | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
same in America. Face of a terrorist, that is the | :10:42. | :10:44. | |
justification. Look at it. Think about it. Not brush it under the | :10:45. | :10:52. | |
carpet and hope it will go away, confront it. That is a legitimate | :10:53. | :10:56. | |
editorial decision. That is the comment of the times, that they are | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
saying the far right is here, it is a growing threat, and we should be | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
wise to that. Yes, several really interesting bits. They are making a | :11:07. | :11:15. | |
stark warning that this is a real threat. Given that he did not | :11:16. | :11:22. | |
disclose any evidence on his own behalf or mount any defence, again, | :11:23. | :11:25. | |
yesterday, questions about his mental health, rather than the | :11:26. | :11:29. | |
nature of the terrorist atrocity committed. It is interesting the | :11:30. | :11:38. | |
focus has come back to that, but the times has an interesting follow-up, | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
they now suggest the police are looking for accomplished is in this | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
murder. Looking for the people who supplied the gun, and also, that the | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
killer left his affairs in order before the attack. There was a real | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
meticulous nature to the way he went about it. And also, the suggestion | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
that he was going to kill his own mother as well. A lot of questions | :12:01. | :12:02. | |
about how people become radicalised like this, in the same way as we | :12:03. | :12:09. | |
talk about Islamic radicalisation, do they self radicalised, are they | :12:10. | :12:12. | |
part of a bigger group, the way that you tackle them will be different on | :12:13. | :12:16. | |
the nature -- depended upon an HR of how they get into this state, we | :12:17. | :12:19. | |
have do have a serious look at how this is happening and not hope it | :12:20. | :12:26. | |
will go away. -- depending upon the nature of how they get into this | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
state. Thank you very much for joining us. | :12:30. | :12:33. |