19/02/2017 The Papers

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

With me are broadcaster Natalie Haynes and the Independent's

We have promoted due. Deputy political editor!

Tomorrow's front pages, starting with...

The FT leads with the news that Kraft Heinz is abandoning its one

hundred and fifteen billion pound takeover offer for Unilever,

just two days after it made the approach.

The i's front cover focuses on this week's Brexit debate

in the House of Lords, where some of the New Labour

grandees COULD resist the government's plans

The Express also picks up the story, urging the Lords not to weaken

or delay the government's Brexit approach.

The Independent leads with the advance into

forces and also covers the Lords' Brexit debate.

A warning from the Defence Secretary makes the Telegraph's front page.

Sir Michael Fallon says Britain must maintain a military presence

in Afghanistan to avoid millions of Afghans migrating to the UK.

Meanwhile the Metro is running with a story that Battersea Dogs

and Cats Home is calling for tougher penalties for animal abusers.

Let's start with the story about Afghanistan on the Telegraph. UK

troops to prevent Afghan meltdown, Europe faces a new refugee exodus if

Britain pulls out of the war-torn country warns Michael Fallon. How is

this meltdown occurring? Only a short time ago everyone was saying

we could save people out our troops. Most people have probably forgotten

entirely that there are still 500 British troops in Afghanistan on a

training facility. It has been quiet since the end of combat operations.

The Defence Secretary is issuing this warning. He is only saying it

will be wrong for Britain to pull out. He does not seem to be talking

about increasing the number of troops over there, but the story

refers to a senior US commander in Afghanistan saying thousands more

soldiers would be needed to break the stalemate against the Taliban.

You wonder whether this speech by the Defence Secretary is some sort

of softening exercise to prepare Britain for the possibility that

more troops would have to go back into Afghanistan 16 years after it

all started. It would surprise and horrify a lot of people. It seems

strange to be saying it because the numbers do not fit together. We are

looking about three or 4 million leaving Afghanistan if things go

wrong and that could be prevented by the 500 troops we have there now? At

one point we had 10,000. We have a 20th of the number. 500 does not

seem like very many to be keeping things together. I think it feels

very much like a suggestion there will be more troops being sent

there. Particularly 500 who are only there in a training capacity, not on

the front line. You wonder whether there would be an appetite publicly

to recommit people to that sort of role. Our army is much shrunken than

the days when we first went into Afghanistan. They are using a

different argument here to the one that I remember 15 years ago which

was used to persuade people we needed to fight over there. If we

did not go to the Taliban, they would come over here and attack us.

But you do not see that in the words of the Defence Secretary tonight.

Instead you see this warning that there would be more migration to

hear. That is a reflection of how much migration has become the

biggest issue in British politics. That is the warning that he is using

to try to persuade that Afghanistan is still worth fighting for. Let's

look at a couple of Brexit stories. It would not be a review without one

or two of these. Donald Trump is coming up in a minute, do not fret.

The Independent newspaper, people must have their say on the Brexit

deal. Peter Mandelson caused a lot of consternation amongst some

people. They seem to think he has no right to speak up, but he sits in

the House of Lords. 191 peers to speak on this issue in the next few

days. Very briefly, they each have six minutes. It is a bit like you

are about to step out a small Tardis and say, what year is this? Tony

Blair, Peter Mandelson? They are suddenly reclaiming the headlines

like they always did supremely well. Of course the House of Lords was

coming and he has managed to make sure his agenda has got on the front

pages over the weekend. Peter Mandelson is coming around in a

pincer movement. It will be a busy few days for you, Rob. You will be

sitting there with your shorthand. It will be the focus of attention

for a few days. But people will be saying, didn't the bill goes

through? It will be good news for people who oppose Brexit, the Lords

have the power to delay Brexit. Will they do there? They will be able to

delay it for one week only. It is likely they will amend the bill in

some small areas. Some important areas to do with the EU nationals

and the final vote on the final deal in 2019. They may amend it slightly

and send it back to the Commons, but in the end of the Commons will

prevail and we will still be triggering Article 50 by the end of

March. They have been warned off about making too many amendments.

They have been warned off by David Davis. Could they do anything other

than quake in their boots? They are not an elected house. The Tories are

saying, you love things like a House of Lords. It seems very strange to

hear somebody politically to the right suddenly standing up and

saying that the House of Lords cannot have their day. We will wait

and see what they daren't do. The politicians are out there arguing

for this Brexit to continue and they are the least popular in the

country, Tony Blair. They have some fans on social media, but some

people are surprised they are sticking their heads above the

parapet. Brussels wants to tie down a 60 billion euros exit bill before

beginning trade talks. This is in the Financial Times. How was Britain

going to be forced to pay this divorce Bill. This could be an

indication of this. Instead of focusing on the debate in the Lords,

it still believes that this states more clearly that the EU is

determined to get its money back and it will do that by saying we will

not talk about anything else with Britain. We will not talk about

future trading arrangements, which is what Theresa May is desperate to

talk about. That will not be on the agenda unless Britain has agreed to

pay the divorce Bill, which is a huge amount of money. Many MPs will

leap up and down if the government agrees to pay it and will demand we

walk away without paying a penny. The other issue they want to cover

in Brussels is the rights of expatriates citizens, which is

somewhere where the Lords may feel they could get some kind of

agreement. That feels quite plausible. Almost across-the-board

people have seen it too have felt, people like Nigel Farage, they were

saying we are not saying people who are here now will be asked to leave.

I think it is pretty much across the board, with few exceptions, a sense

that people who have made their lives here should have a degree of

security which they do not at the moment. That would be a two-way

thing because British people have made their homes for a long time in

other parts of the EU who would be covered by those guarantees. That is

the reason the Prime Minister gives for not giving a unilateral

guarantee for the 3 million EU citizens in this country because she

is determined to secure the rights of British expats as well. It is a

bit more complex than it is normally portrayed. It is not can we have our

rights and can they have their rights? How much health care and

pension rights would EU citizens be entitled to estimate it will be a

complicated negotiation. Inevitably. There are more EU citizens here than

there are British citizens on the continent and maybe that is how they

will reduce their 60 billion euro bill. The Times newspaper. Is that

where we are going? Lies fuelling revolt over rates insist ministers.

Number ten on collision course with small businesses. Business rates

have been re-evaluated, but the issue because they are based on

property prices. They will kick in in April. The government is saying

most businesses will pay the same or less. The Exchequer will not be

better off. That is supposed to be a financial gain for the Treasury, I

am not sure how they achieved that. It is amazing to see that this story

will not go off to the front pages. I think we know where it is heading.

There is a budget next month and the Chancellor will have to give way to

this sort of pressure from his own MPs and from the media. But this

story says a letter has been cast around from the Communities

Secretary and MPs in which they are complaining about misinformation in

the media. But the letter apparently points out that in some

constituencies bills will go up and they will go up by a large amount,

including 10% in Runnymede, which is the Chancellor's constituency. It is

those figures that say to me in the end there will be a climb-down in

the budget. Many high streets are struggling already to keep small

businesses there. You have to look at high streets virtually anywhere

in the country since the financial crisis, which is already nine years

ago, and lots of them, betting shops and charity shops, they are there

because small businesses went under a long time ago and have never

returned. It is OK to say that most businesses will have reduced bills,

but those who will not I still half a million businesses and that is a

lot. Those will be small businesses in the South. It is such a strange

policy for the Conservatives. Let's have a look at the New York Times.

There is an opinion piece called trapped in Donald Trump's addled

mind. She says he is stuck in his own skull. It is hard to disagree

when you see him inventing incident in Sweden and all of Sweden, bless

them, going, what? It is like a weird vendetta against

Scandinavians. The Norwegian former Prime Minister was stopped during

the weekend of the travel ban at customs. I am from Scandinavia, I

was the Prime Minister. The New York Times is one of Donald Trump's most

hated newspapers and it is making it clear why that should be. Maureen

Dowd on the front page saying essentially he is living in an

entirely internal bauble and we cannot get in and he cannot get out.

Is he not more clever than that? Everybody gets distracted by his

Twitter in the morning and then we forget to ask about the other

questions going on in the administration. The story is well

timed with the phrase addled mind because he talked about a terrorist

attack in Sweden at a rally last night and there was no attack at

all. One theory is there has been a recent attack in Pakistan and he may

have confused the town there with Sweden. Let's say the US suddenly

decide are some ice as terrorists in Pakistan, so I would be worried if I

was Swedish. Very quickly, the Daily Telegraph. Saving universities EU

funding. What does Oxford University want to do? They have been charmed

by the French to open a campus extension in Paris and other

universities have been approached, like Warwick University. Extremely

high class areas of learning. They will lose their EU funding during

the Brexit negotiations and whether they do or not, they are worried

that they might. Students from the EU are studying here. I am related

to one, and they are worrying about their status and what will happen.

Oxford has been around for 700 years and it has never had a campus in

another country and this is an extraordinary shift and I suspect

other universities might consider it as well. I read that there was an

orchestra planning to move from Britain to somewhere in another part

of Europe for the same reason, so it is not just businesses that will

consider moving away from here. There will be no music and learning

and we will sit here remembering what it was like in the past. The

times, David Attenborough dives in again at 90. Another series to look

forward to from David Attenborough, this time focusing on the oceans. 90

years old and still working. An extraordinary tribute to him. Not

many people achieved that. He says he is thrilled to be going back

underwater. The series promises never before seen species including

task fishes and something with a hairy chest that looks like the

Baywatch actor David Hasselhoff! It will look beautiful and sound even

better with his commentary. He did the cuttlefish mating ritual which

appears to be something like, look at my excellent tentacles. I have

heard worse chat up lines. We will talk about it off air. That

is it for now. We will be back at half past 11 for another stab at the

Christopher de Bellaigue wants to challenge our understanding

Who is to say that that is not one of the most important