19/04/2017 The Papers

Hello there and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be

With me are Alison Little, deputy political editor at

The Daily Express, and Lucy Fisher, senior political

Good to see you both. Happy there's an election? I'm exhilarated, I'm

very happy! I can see you are. Let's look at some of the front pages. The

Metro says, bring it on, after MPs Metro says, bring it on, after MPs

voted for the snap general election on June the 8th. According to the

Daily Mail, the Conservative manifesto will guarantee the end of

free movement. The Daily Telegraph reports a warning from Theresa May

that the SNP is plotting what she has called a coalition of chaos. The

Times claims the Prime Minister is being forced into a concession over

migrant targets as part of the price for calling the snap election.

Philanthropist Bill Gates has warned that lives will be at risk if the

Conservatives cut overseas aid, that is the top story on the front of the

Guardian. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn features on the front page of

the Financial Times. The mirror headline is foul play, as the paper

calls Theresa May chicken for refusing to take part in TV debates.

We're going to start with the Metro. "Bring It on". There was no debate,

note surprise this was going to happen, the Labour Party decided to

back it, what a transformation 24 hours makes. Yes. Even last week we

were writing cheerily about the onset of nuclear war and then all

that has gone and suddenly here we are! I can tell you there are MPs

frantically deciding what they want to do. Those who said they would go

on until 2020 and stop, they have a hard and quick decision to make

because of her. But she was ready for it, they are off, and off they

go onto the campaign trail. Lucy, how prepared are the parties really

for this, considering it's literally out of the blue? There is a whole

organisation that has got to be sorted out to deal with this kind of

thing. That's absolutely right, but when you look at CCH queue, they

have already co-opted in Sir Lynton Crosby, the strategist credited with

masterminding David Cameron's success in 2015. There might have

been some planning effort because GCHQ has been rushing in recent

weeks and months to update its candidates list under the radar. So

to my mind, the Conservatives look in a little bit better shape than

Labour and the Lib Dems, who have been a bit more court on the hoof.

Certainly with Labour, they had a long meeting with their governing

body to date and decide the rules. I think all parties now just need to

get bodies in every seat ready to get going. It's just seven weeks.

The Financial Times front page is Mr Corbyn, he is in Croydon, a marginal

constituency. The caption at the top, "Call to arms, Corbyn targets

the rich as MPs vote to set election clock ticking, he clearly feels of

course that he can win. He is supported, surrounded by the party

faithful, there. And he is on the stump. I think my point and we might

row about this, is that I see that picture of Corbyn and I saw him on

the television earlier and he walks into this rally amid cheers, someone

said "I love you, I love you". This is where he's happiest, which is

fine, because Theresa May also pictured in the Telegraph surrounded

by her supporters. But critics of Jeremy Corbyn will say, this is the

early thing he can do coming he loves these rallies, that is where

he is happiest. We saw him at Prime Minister's Question Time today and I

don't know how you thought he performed, but he was quite

stumbling, there was no support from his MPs, he is miserable that. But

when he is in this rally situation can he loves it. If you're going to

be leader of the party and Prime Minister, you need to be able to do

the other stuff as well, I think. He reminds me of a certain chap in

1992. Mr major? That's right. He had a little soapbox. And it worked.

Donald Trump. Donald Trump just stood there in front of the party

faithful, didn't go anywhere else. He won too. It could work for Mr

Corbyn. No? CHUCKLES

I don't know, I think there is something in that. I'm sure the

people in labour HQ are looking at John Major's soapbox talk, I think

it is a backlash against the slickness... The trouble is there

comes a point when in Dearing Dottie nature becomes an image of

incompetence. Tuesday night we were waiting for him and all his MPs to

attend a meeting of the PLP, very important, do talk about the

election, and he was an hour late because he was stuck on a train

coming back from a constituency. You might say it shows he's a man of the

people... Know, being late is tardy, whether you are left, right,

whatever. On the front page of the Telegraph we have Theresa May in a

similar sort of setting. She has gone to her constituency and she is

surrounded by the party faithful. The criticism of her could be that

this is her comfort zone and that she, for instance, doesn't want to

be on a TV debate. No, I think it's certainly something the rest of us

want to see, not least in Westminster media circles, her

pitched against Jeremy Corbyn and possibly other leaders, Tim Farron.

They are always quite good fun and I think quite revealing. Sorry Dinda

up but it is a similar criticism to Jeremy Corbyn, that she is not that

nimble on her feet. In a sense, why would she want to hand over power,

the certainty of that volatile situation when she doesn't need to.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Because there was such a

long lead up to 2015, there was a real chance for everyone to heap

pressure on David Cameron. She might try and skip through without doing

it. But I think where she has got is also interesting. Where Jeremy

Corbyn was in London, the heartlands of his support, she went to Bolton.

Those northern pro Brexit Labour held seats with a sizeable Ukip vote

are now in the Tories's sites. The Times had a new poll out the night

with you guv data showing that there is a 24 point lead for the Tories

now over Labour. That is an increased majority over Labour,

coming from the Ukip vote slipping. I think we will hear about that more

in the coming days. Those seats in the north-west and the north-east,

Labour would have thought they could count on but because a lot of them

voted Brexit and labour doesn't seem to have a coherent policy on

Brexit... Quite right, they don't. That makes it difficult for them

when they are campaigning there. I think it does and they lot of them

still feel neglected by an Labour and they are still struggling. I

think there are quite a few Ukip now saying we're going to vote

Conservative because that is how we secure Brexit. And I don't think of

the London voice, I don't know how much it appeals. They've is really

going to have to get its election machine in gear. Let's go to the

front page of the Independent. Reveal, Corbyn's plan to hang on

even if Labour suffers a humiliating defeat. This is a man who has

survived one leadership election, another leadership election, a

massive vote of no-confidence in own party. The suggestion here seems to

be that even if there is a wipe-out and the Conservatives get a three

figure majority, he will still hang on. That is absolutely where my

money is and has always been. He will not stand down. As you say,

Clive, he showed himself to be completely impervious to pressure

until now. I'm not convinced that he is on the edge and unbecoming the

psychological pressure that some people seem to think. This is a

battle the left have been waging an waiting for their chance for

decades, they're not going to give it up without a mechanism being in

place to hand over to a left-wing candidate. I think there are so many

risks involved in them trying to get through the so-called McDonald

amendment bringing down the threshold of Labour MPs needed to

get on the ballot paper, I think... He's going to want to hang on.

Having said that, it is the biggest party in Europe, the membership is

at record levels because of Jeremy Corbyn, why should he go? Even if he

does go and they do lose? Those adoring supporters do exist. We have

seen them. And they firmly believe in him and his project. Yes, and he

did want to give his members more say in deselecting some of the

sitting MPs, which scared the living daylights out of some of the

moderates, but they might have decided that wasn't enough time to

do that. And he does claim, yes, that it is a movement of the people

and they can defy the polls with their message. He is trying to make

it about the economy, living standards, something different. A

lot of people believing his policies. I don't think he can

possibly win, after last year. But after last year we would be foolish

to make firm predictions! Theresa May's cast-iron Brexit pledge. It

will guarantee the end of free movement and no more meddling by

European judges. And that is a cast-iron guarantee, which I think

will make conservatives feel a bit queasy, because the last time David

Cameron said cast-iron, it all went morally wrong. Can we trust anything

Theresa May says now, after saying she was not going to have a snap

election? I think she will be held to account. She had to U-turn pretty

quickly on the national insurance debacle and the budget. But I think

this is interesting. Home Secretary Amber Rudd hinted that with Theresa

May seeking a larger mandate, that could be a way in which she is

seeking to land a softer kind of Brexit. So I think this is Theresa

May making clear to the Daily Mail, and the right wing of her party,

that no, she's going to stick to those pledges, the end of freedom of

movement, the end of the jurisdiction of the European court

of justice, and I think that is something that is expected. What

people will also be looking for, the final Cameron legacy she dumps,

going forward into the next election, could be that she cares up

the pledge of no .7% aid and the lock on pensions is set to go, so

there could be a lot of focus on that. The front page of The Times,

Theresa May forced to weaken key target on migrants. The Times are

saying this is part of the price of calling a quick election. You have a

lot to tie up before Parliament rises for the election campaign.

They are saying she's going to have to give in, not necessarily

completely, but to keep students out of the net migration figures, which,

famously of course, and she hasn't dropped this pledge yet, we think

she might do. That was a Cameron pledge, to get net migration under

100,000 a year. If you include students, 134,000 international

students arrived in 2016, those numbers, you can make that target

even more impossible to get. They are saying that she wants to get a

bill through the House of Lords to enable universities to raise their

fees even higher, and the cost of that could be that she makes a

concession. But also I know, I think the Foreign Office and various

ministers, I went to India with Theresa May on her trip last year

and there is a lot of concern here and in countries like India that

Britain is being unfriendly towards their students and making it

difficult for them to arrive. They would say that they bring benefits

and prunes to this country. So it might help with International

relations as well if they would soften their stance a little. OK, so

the horse trading has already begun before the election even starts. Any

suggestion that Theresa May is going to weaken on key migrant targets is

not going to be what a lot of people in the country want to hear. It's an

interesting one, I think particularly the student numbers,

because I think people think they only come here temporarily and the

evidence shows that very few overstayed their visas. People say,

why should they be counted alongside people that come and settle here

long-term and put a long-term burden, the argument goes, an

essential public services, health and education. So I think this is a

slightly more niche issue to the whole immigration question but

certainly immigration numbers and whether she's forced to put a

concrete cap in her manifesto as a pledge going into the election... I

think Ukip is going to campaign very hard on immigration. OK, finally, it

is your story in the express, "I'm stepping down from the Commons for

now", not you, George Osborne! There is a picture of him. He's going to

be the editor of the Evening Standard and he is not going to seek

re-election. Yes, but he is leaving the House of Commons "For now". He

always fancied himself to be a great newsmaker and wants to show himself

to be intriguing and mysterious. But we just hate it because he's going

to earn loads more money from journalism for much less work than

we ever will! I think he must have concluded he could not fight... If

he fought for re-election as an MP, there would have been so many

questions over his commitment to the job because he was not only going to

be the editor of a daily newspaper but he has various other roles as

well. 70 grand as an MP, X number of gold bullion bars as editor of a

newspaper! Difficult decision! By having all said -- having said that,

he missed his first deadline today. He did, first rule of journalism,

make your deadlines. He didn't make the print edition. Dear oh dear, Mr

Osborne, you had better do better! Great having you with us. Many

thanks for that. Don't forget you can see the front

pages of the papers online And you can see a recording of this

broadcast any time you like, on iPlayer. Relive the memories!

Another quiet evening out there and for the remainder of the week, the

weather is going to remain settled. If anything, just a touch warmer,

particularly across some southern and eastern areas of the UK, but