19/04/2017 The Papers


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19/04/2017

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Hello there and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers will be

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With me are Alison Little, deputy political editor at

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The Daily Express, and Lucy Fisher, senior political

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Good to see you both. Happy there's an election? I'm exhilarated, I'm

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very happy! I can see you are. Let's look at some of the front pages. The

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Metro says, bring it on, after MPs Metro says, bring it on, after MPs

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voted for the snap general election on June the 8th. According to the

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Daily Mail, the Conservative manifesto will guarantee the end of

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free movement. The Daily Telegraph reports a warning from Theresa May

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that the SNP is plotting what she has called a coalition of chaos. The

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Times claims the Prime Minister is being forced into a concession over

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migrant targets as part of the price for calling the snap election.

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Philanthropist Bill Gates has warned that lives will be at risk if the

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Conservatives cut overseas aid, that is the top story on the front of the

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Guardian. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn features on the front page of

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the Financial Times. The mirror headline is foul play, as the paper

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calls Theresa May chicken for refusing to take part in TV debates.

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We're going to start with the Metro. "Bring It on". There was no debate,

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note surprise this was going to happen, the Labour Party decided to

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back it, what a transformation 24 hours makes. Yes. Even last week we

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were writing cheerily about the onset of nuclear war and then all

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that has gone and suddenly here we are! I can tell you there are MPs

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frantically deciding what they want to do. Those who said they would go

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on until 2020 and stop, they have a hard and quick decision to make

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because of her. But she was ready for it, they are off, and off they

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go onto the campaign trail. Lucy, how prepared are the parties really

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for this, considering it's literally out of the blue? There is a whole

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organisation that has got to be sorted out to deal with this kind of

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thing. That's absolutely right, but when you look at CCH queue, they

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have already co-opted in Sir Lynton Crosby, the strategist credited with

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masterminding David Cameron's success in 2015. There might have

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been some planning effort because GCHQ has been rushing in recent

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weeks and months to update its candidates list under the radar. So

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to my mind, the Conservatives look in a little bit better shape than

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Labour and the Lib Dems, who have been a bit more court on the hoof.

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Certainly with Labour, they had a long meeting with their governing

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body to date and decide the rules. I think all parties now just need to

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get bodies in every seat ready to get going. It's just seven weeks.

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The Financial Times front page is Mr Corbyn, he is in Croydon, a marginal

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constituency. The caption at the top, "Call to arms, Corbyn targets

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the rich as MPs vote to set election clock ticking, he clearly feels of

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course that he can win. He is supported, surrounded by the party

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faithful, there. And he is on the stump. I think my point and we might

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row about this, is that I see that picture of Corbyn and I saw him on

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the television earlier and he walks into this rally amid cheers, someone

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said "I love you, I love you". This is where he's happiest, which is

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fine, because Theresa May also pictured in the Telegraph surrounded

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by her supporters. But critics of Jeremy Corbyn will say, this is the

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early thing he can do coming he loves these rallies, that is where

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he is happiest. We saw him at Prime Minister's Question Time today and I

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don't know how you thought he performed, but he was quite

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stumbling, there was no support from his MPs, he is miserable that. But

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when he is in this rally situation can he loves it. If you're going to

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be leader of the party and Prime Minister, you need to be able to do

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the other stuff as well, I think. He reminds me of a certain chap in

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1992. Mr major? That's right. He had a little soapbox. And it worked.

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Donald Trump. Donald Trump just stood there in front of the party

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faithful, didn't go anywhere else. He won too. It could work for Mr

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Corbyn. No? CHUCKLES

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I don't know, I think there is something in that. I'm sure the

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people in labour HQ are looking at John Major's soapbox talk, I think

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it is a backlash against the slickness... The trouble is there

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comes a point when in Dearing Dottie nature becomes an image of

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incompetence. Tuesday night we were waiting for him and all his MPs to

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attend a meeting of the PLP, very important, do talk about the

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election, and he was an hour late because he was stuck on a train

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coming back from a constituency. You might say it shows he's a man of the

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people... Know, being late is tardy, whether you are left, right,

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whatever. On the front page of the Telegraph we have Theresa May in a

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similar sort of setting. She has gone to her constituency and she is

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surrounded by the party faithful. The criticism of her could be that

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this is her comfort zone and that she, for instance, doesn't want to

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be on a TV debate. No, I think it's certainly something the rest of us

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want to see, not least in Westminster media circles, her

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pitched against Jeremy Corbyn and possibly other leaders, Tim Farron.

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They are always quite good fun and I think quite revealing. Sorry Dinda

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up but it is a similar criticism to Jeremy Corbyn, that she is not that

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nimble on her feet. In a sense, why would she want to hand over power,

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the certainty of that volatile situation when she doesn't need to.

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It will be interesting to see what happens. Because there was such a

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long lead up to 2015, there was a real chance for everyone to heap

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pressure on David Cameron. She might try and skip through without doing

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it. But I think where she has got is also interesting. Where Jeremy

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Corbyn was in London, the heartlands of his support, she went to Bolton.

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Those northern pro Brexit Labour held seats with a sizeable Ukip vote

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are now in the Tories's sites. The Times had a new poll out the night

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with you guv data showing that there is a 24 point lead for the Tories

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now over Labour. That is an increased majority over Labour,

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coming from the Ukip vote slipping. I think we will hear about that more

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in the coming days. Those seats in the north-west and the north-east,

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Labour would have thought they could count on but because a lot of them

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voted Brexit and labour doesn't seem to have a coherent policy on

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Brexit... Quite right, they don't. That makes it difficult for them

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when they are campaigning there. I think it does and they lot of them

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still feel neglected by an Labour and they are still struggling. I

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think there are quite a few Ukip now saying we're going to vote

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Conservative because that is how we secure Brexit. And I don't think of

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the London voice, I don't know how much it appeals. They've is really

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going to have to get its election machine in gear. Let's go to the

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front page of the Independent. Reveal, Corbyn's plan to hang on

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even if Labour suffers a humiliating defeat. This is a man who has

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survived one leadership election, another leadership election, a

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massive vote of no-confidence in own party. The suggestion here seems to

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be that even if there is a wipe-out and the Conservatives get a three

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figure majority, he will still hang on. That is absolutely where my

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money is and has always been. He will not stand down. As you say,

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Clive, he showed himself to be completely impervious to pressure

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until now. I'm not convinced that he is on the edge and unbecoming the

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psychological pressure that some people seem to think. This is a

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battle the left have been waging an waiting for their chance for

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decades, they're not going to give it up without a mechanism being in

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place to hand over to a left-wing candidate. I think there are so many

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risks involved in them trying to get through the so-called McDonald

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amendment bringing down the threshold of Labour MPs needed to

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get on the ballot paper, I think... He's going to want to hang on.

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Having said that, it is the biggest party in Europe, the membership is

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at record levels because of Jeremy Corbyn, why should he go? Even if he

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does go and they do lose? Those adoring supporters do exist. We have

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seen them. And they firmly believe in him and his project. Yes, and he

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did want to give his members more say in deselecting some of the

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sitting MPs, which scared the living daylights out of some of the

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moderates, but they might have decided that wasn't enough time to

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do that. And he does claim, yes, that it is a movement of the people

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and they can defy the polls with their message. He is trying to make

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it about the economy, living standards, something different. A

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lot of people believing his policies. I don't think he can

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possibly win, after last year. But after last year we would be foolish

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to make firm predictions! Theresa May's cast-iron Brexit pledge. It

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will guarantee the end of free movement and no more meddling by

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European judges. And that is a cast-iron guarantee, which I think

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will make conservatives feel a bit queasy, because the last time David

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Cameron said cast-iron, it all went morally wrong. Can we trust anything

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Theresa May says now, after saying she was not going to have a snap

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election? I think she will be held to account. She had to U-turn pretty

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quickly on the national insurance debacle and the budget. But I think

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this is interesting. Home Secretary Amber Rudd hinted that with Theresa

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May seeking a larger mandate, that could be a way in which she is

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seeking to land a softer kind of Brexit. So I think this is Theresa

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May making clear to the Daily Mail, and the right wing of her party,

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that no, she's going to stick to those pledges, the end of freedom of

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movement, the end of the jurisdiction of the European court

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of justice, and I think that is something that is expected. What

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people will also be looking for, the final Cameron legacy she dumps,

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going forward into the next election, could be that she cares up

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the pledge of no .7% aid and the lock on pensions is set to go, so

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there could be a lot of focus on that. The front page of The Times,

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Theresa May forced to weaken key target on migrants. The Times are

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saying this is part of the price of calling a quick election. You have a

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lot to tie up before Parliament rises for the election campaign.

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They are saying she's going to have to give in, not necessarily

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completely, but to keep students out of the net migration figures, which,

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famously of course, and she hasn't dropped this pledge yet, we think

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she might do. That was a Cameron pledge, to get net migration under

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100,000 a year. If you include students, 134,000 international

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students arrived in 2016, those numbers, you can make that target

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even more impossible to get. They are saying that she wants to get a

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bill through the House of Lords to enable universities to raise their

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fees even higher, and the cost of that could be that she makes a

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concession. But also I know, I think the Foreign Office and various

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ministers, I went to India with Theresa May on her trip last year

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and there is a lot of concern here and in countries like India that

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Britain is being unfriendly towards their students and making it

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difficult for them to arrive. They would say that they bring benefits

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and prunes to this country. So it might help with International

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relations as well if they would soften their stance a little. OK, so

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the horse trading has already begun before the election even starts. Any

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suggestion that Theresa May is going to weaken on key migrant targets is

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not going to be what a lot of people in the country want to hear. It's an

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interesting one, I think particularly the student numbers,

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because I think people think they only come here temporarily and the

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evidence shows that very few overstayed their visas. People say,

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why should they be counted alongside people that come and settle here

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long-term and put a long-term burden, the argument goes, an

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essential public services, health and education. So I think this is a

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slightly more niche issue to the whole immigration question but

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certainly immigration numbers and whether she's forced to put a

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concrete cap in her manifesto as a pledge going into the election... I

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think Ukip is going to campaign very hard on immigration. OK, finally, it

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is your story in the express, "I'm stepping down from the Commons for

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now", not you, George Osborne! There is a picture of him. He's going to

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be the editor of the Evening Standard and he is not going to seek

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re-election. Yes, but he is leaving the House of Commons "For now". He

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always fancied himself to be a great newsmaker and wants to show himself

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to be intriguing and mysterious. But we just hate it because he's going

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to earn loads more money from journalism for much less work than

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we ever will! I think he must have concluded he could not fight... If

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he fought for re-election as an MP, there would have been so many

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questions over his commitment to the job because he was not only going to

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be the editor of a daily newspaper but he has various other roles as

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well. 70 grand as an MP, X number of gold bullion bars as editor of a

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newspaper! Difficult decision! By having all said -- having said that,

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he missed his first deadline today. He did, first rule of journalism,

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make your deadlines. He didn't make the print edition. Dear oh dear, Mr

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Osborne, you had better do better! Great having you with us. Many

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thanks for that. Don't forget you can see the front

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pages of the papers online And you can see a recording of this

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broadcast any time you like, on iPlayer. Relive the memories!

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Another quiet evening out there and for the remainder of the week, the

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weather is going to remain settled. If anything, just a touch warmer,

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particularly across some southern and eastern areas of the UK, but

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