21/04/2017 The Papers


21/04/2017

No need to wait to see what's in the papers - tune in for a lively and informed conversation about the next day's headlines.


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Transcript


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Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

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With me are Torcuil Crichton, Political Editor at The Daily

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Record, and the barrister and broadcaster, Sophia Cannon.

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She is in a very politically neutral coloured dress tonight.

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Tomorrow's front pages, starting with...

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The Financial Times says there's alarm within Downing Street

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as the Chancellor has hinted he wants to scrap the

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The Mirror also leads with the Chancellors comments.

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It says it could mean an increase in VAT or income tax.

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The Times headlines sources in Washington who have told

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the paper that President Trump is prioritising striking a trade

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The Independent has an exclusive with a former British

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judge, who warns the Government is displaying "invisible

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ignorance" in thinking they can free the country

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The Daily Mail warns of a new mortgage price war

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The Sun also warns of tax rises and pension cuts

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It also says there could be an increase in overseas aid.

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In the Express, the Prime Minister is to reject a fresh call from

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Brussels to give rights to EU citizens currently living in the UK.

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The Guardian leads with presidential elections in France and the

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heightened security at polling stations which open tomorrow amid

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yesterday's tack in Paris. Let's begin with a reflection on what has

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been happening in the election campaign after the announcement of

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the snap election earlier in the week which took everyone by

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surprise, not least the Conservative Party. The daily Mirror is where we

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will begin. More election U-turn. Tonsil suggests he will drop the

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2015 pledged not to hike taxes. -- the Chancellor suggests. I think he

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has said he wants more flexibility. This is meant to be the Brexit

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election and it is tax on every paper all day today and all day

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tomorrow. It will be a tax election this weekend. The Tories want to

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drop this tax bombshell on Labour. It has bounced back. Philip Hammond

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has said he will have to raise taxes. We know he will have to raise

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taxes and he has said that the 80 could go up. Why would the daily

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Mirror go on the 80? That is because it hits the poor harder than the

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rich. They spent about 10% of their VAT -- income on VAT. If you took

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some people out of tax, it would lower the rates for higher earners.

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Indeed. The issue here is that the Tories have always been the party of

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fiscal firmness. They have always been the party where you think the

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economy is in safe hands. It is not economy is in safe hands. It is not

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the case. It is now appearing that the Labour Party could be right,

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that the Tory Party is going to hit white Van man right where it hurts,

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right at the exhaust pipe and ensure that he is paying more tax on a

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whole. This is the whole issue. We are being appalled by two strong

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forces, demographic change and the need to raise taxes in this post

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Brexit world. By the Conservatives to get hot under the collar when

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people say the economy is not faring as well as it could under them. We

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have seen since EE referendum the economy has been faring pretty well.

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Brexit has not happened yet. Another reason to have an early election

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before the pain of Brexit hits. The Tories reputation, Philip Hammond

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tried to raise taxes in his budget, his first budget as Chancellor and

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tried to put up national insurance. That was a bomb in itself was that

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it fell apart within days. One reason is they have to escape, they

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have to escape from the 2015 manifesto. David Cameron thought the

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Tories would not be in power. They promised no tax increases, no

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national insurance increases at all during the lifetime of the

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parliament. That cannot happen when you have a social care crisis. The

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NHS is falling apart, education in England and Scotland as well. The

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other thing which is interesting, those of us long enough in the tooth

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to remember the bombshell imagery used by the Conservatives in an

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election some years ago saying that Labour were about to drop it. They

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are turning that on its head. They are waiting to find out whether

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Labour can trumpet. In the last election they tried to say they

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would follow the Tory tax spending plan and the issue here is whether

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Labour will come out tomorrow and say they are. They have already

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broken that orthodoxy. John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor,

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has said, if you are rich, we are coming to get you. By Richie means

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70,000. 70,000 does not seem rich to me. If you are earning 20... Most

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people earn between 20 and 30,000. If you earn 70,000, you are rich. It

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says pay and this may. Tories ready to hit white van man. The Labour

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Party has said they will keep the triple lock. We do not know whether

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Theresa May well. Foreign aid will be increased. How far it will be

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increased, we do not know. There was a question earlier in the week about

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whether .7% of GDP for foreign aid would be maintained. This was

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wonderful. It showed global politics at its best and worst. Bill Gates

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came in and said, hold on a minute, you started the whole philanthropic

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movement to support countries that need to trade, need aid in order to

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so do, and also to increase the life expectancy. And indeed lowering

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poverty across the world. That has been increased. That is one of the

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major forces of capitalism. It has lowered global poverty. If we are

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now saying to the world, hold on a minute, we are tightening our purse

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strings were not give aid anymore. What does that say to other

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countries and what does that say about ourselves? As British we have

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pledged to hold firm on this. To say that .7 of our GDP is not that much.

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But she is saying is, hold on a minute, I'll be spending it

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correctly, in the right places, the right spaces. Are we giving on a

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macro level, it should be beginning on a micro level? As Britons, we

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need to acknowledge that. She has been firm on that. The manifestos

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will tell us where they stand. They'll be hastily written as we

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write scripts for this programme tonight. There is a short space of

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time to get the policies out. Theresa May is being pushed around,

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mostly by the media and the Telegraph. .7% is a terrible waste

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of money abroad when schools are collapsing in Britain. The

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counterargument is .7% is a minuscule amount to spend abroad. Is

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something Britain used to do so well. We might find ourselves who do

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get a bit raw hard power. At least Theresa May has come out and said it

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sticks. Sun readers earn quite a bit less than the average wage will stop

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it has no, no, no. The Sunnis against any increase in VAT, getting

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rid of the pension law. The sun is against. The triple lock might not

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disappear entirely. They might get rid of one of the locks. The triple

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lock is average earnings. It is 2.5%, or the rate of inflation,

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whichever is the high. Letters not forget, there is a cohort of women

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who are in the late 50s, early 60s, who have already been slapped either

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government. This is causing hardship for our mothers, our auntie 's, our

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grandmas. It is the whole idea that pension in itself should not be

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touched. It is already being chipped away at the edges, who is receiving

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it and whether it is guaranteed in certain forms. Eye-macro I am

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talking to my fellow near pensioner here. Speak for yourself. I will be

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working for a few years yet. We will face a demographic time bomb.

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There'll be no such thing as a lock because there will no door. Pensions

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have a triple lock. They are the biggest group that votes but also

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the group that has been best off in the last eight years. Pensioners, on

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the whole, have seen their lot improved. With the announcement they

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are making, given foreign aid is unpopular with some voters and the

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pension lock is popular, how much of these small details we have got so

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far is a function of the fact the Conservatives, in the opinion polls

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have such a big lead they feel they can afford to take that chance? Is

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it confidence or arrogance? Six weeks to go. A lock can happen. OK,

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the Tories of 48-24 in the polls. People say he has no chance to win.

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The first round has been OK. They said he could not win the

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leadership. He turned the polls around quite sharply. He is so far

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behind in the polls. 48-24 in the polls. I'm the guy who is 200-1

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against being the next Labour leader. The fears of Hammond tax

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bombshell. Theresa May hints at axing the pension triple lock.

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Philip Hammond must remember he tried to raise national insurance

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rates, didn't he? That have to be turned around very quickly. It's

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about who takes austerities? Is it the people who are there and can

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withstand the attack, as it were, on the public purse? On the other end

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you have the NHS crumbling, the idea of social care being in complete

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meltdown. We do not change in the next five years will be in serious

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trouble. Then we have the immigration issue. You both

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mentioned NHS and social care. Social care is getting a boost of

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more money. The NHS has had more money and overall spending has

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increased. The number of people using it has also gone up. It is not

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going to be about white van man, it is about where is my Gran. Which

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hospital will they be in and are they safe? We do not look at certain

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demographics. They will affect the elderly and the young who leave

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university and cannot afford homes because they have too much student

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debt. All we can say for certain is after the election we will all be

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paying more tax. Whoever is in government will need to raise funds.

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By Mac or they are not going to be too upfront about that. You cannot

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All the subjects we were talking All the subjects we were talking

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about have not been Brexit, have they? Brexit this, Brexit that. It

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felt lame and tired. It is like the visit to the dentist. Now, suddenly,

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the election is coming alive on a whole lot of issues. There will be a

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whole lot more. Don't you think it would be that the Liberal Democrats

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will try to talk about the idea of a softening Brexit. The Lib Dems would

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talk about the idea of getting back into Europe with a second

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referendum. They see a market for their policy.

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The Lib Dems have nine MPs. 56 the last time. Let's have a look at the

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times. A different story. President Trumper 's EU ahead of Britain in

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trade Q. Merkel lands Brexit victory for Brussels. Didn't Donald Trump

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say that Brexit was great for Britain. President Obama put us at

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the back of the queue. The warning from the president Obama

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Administration, we love you guys. Countries like to deal with the EU

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as a bloc. It took seven years for Canada to negotiate a deal with the

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EU. The whole idea, if we are sophisticated enough, what will we

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do? Sail around on the yacht Britannia and try and individually

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knock on doors to ensure that we are trading with countries of the world.

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In the times they are going on a different line. Knocking on doors is

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what we have been doing. Boris says we're going to get a deal. In

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Washington, they held hands and it looked good for a while. Now, back

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of the queue again. Angela Merkel has whispered into the year of

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Donald Trump at this transatlantic trade partnership which was giving

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us all last year. She said, it is not going to be that complicated.

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Donald Trump likes the deal and he likes a deal is simple. What will

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this do for the argument that we should retain membership of the

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single market if it is going to be more difficult to negotiate trade

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deals from outside? The analogy is, if I want to go and get all of my

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shopping in one place, I'm not going to walk down the high street to the

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fishmongers, the greengrocers, and the butchers. I want to go to one

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place to collect it all. The way the market forces have been moving over

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the past with industrialisation, the whole idea that the trade body will

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come together and deal with it. We cannot expect in this day and age

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that we are like Japan or Singapore. We Britain. We have to be part of

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the market. You're beginning to sound like a remoaner. The British

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argument is two things. The way our trade has adjusted from industrial

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times to today is how we have industrialised as a nation. We have

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links already with the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth has always found it

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good to use us as an entry point to the EU. The whole issue now, if

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we're proud of that, -- out of it, what influence to rehab? We are just

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the outside. Let us have a look at the i. You are sniggering in my ear!

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I'm just going through the sport process. The i is eye-catching.

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History made, it says, green campaigners celebrate as Britain

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plus manpower stations did not burn a single lump of coal yesterday.

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Exactly. This is what I am saying. The whole idea of dual referendum

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was based upon... Which one? The Scottish one. The oil price. Now it

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has collapsed a few years later. Who would have predicted that, even five

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years ago, that we would no longer be relying on our old friends, the

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fossil fuels, to power this industrialised nation? Things are

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changing quickly. If we do not keep a hold of it, we're going to get out

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of it. Coal fuelled the Industrial Revolution and everything that came

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with it. Here we are saying goodbye to coal. We said goodbye to coal. We

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have learned tonnes of it to keep the lights on. We may be moving to

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imported nuclear to keep our lights on in Britain until we build our own

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nuclear power stations. That is why we included it. It is interesting.

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That is it. Good evening. Some cooler weather

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this weekend but it will be much colder next week. Despite being

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cooler this weekend it looks as if most of us will

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