21/04/2017 The Papers

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be

With me are Torcuil Crichton, Political Editor at The Daily

Record, and the barrister and broadcaster, Sophia Cannon.

She is in a very politically neutral coloured dress tonight.

Tomorrow's front pages, starting with...

The Financial Times says there's alarm within Downing Street

as the Chancellor has hinted he wants to scrap the

The Mirror also leads with the Chancellors comments.

It says it could mean an increase in VAT or income tax.

The Times headlines sources in Washington who have told

the paper that President Trump is prioritising striking a trade

The Independent has an exclusive with a former British

judge, who warns the Government is displaying "invisible

ignorance" in thinking they can free the country

The Daily Mail warns of a new mortgage price war

The Sun also warns of tax rises and pension cuts

It also says there could be an increase in overseas aid.

In the Express, the Prime Minister is to reject a fresh call from

Brussels to give rights to EU citizens currently living in the UK.

The Guardian leads with presidential elections in France and the

heightened security at polling stations which open tomorrow amid

yesterday's tack in Paris. Let's begin with a reflection on what has

been happening in the election campaign after the announcement of

the snap election earlier in the week which took everyone by

surprise, not least the Conservative Party. The daily Mirror is where we

will begin. More election U-turn. Tonsil suggests he will drop the

2015 pledged not to hike taxes. -- the Chancellor suggests. I think he

has said he wants more flexibility. This is meant to be the Brexit

election and it is tax on every paper all day today and all day

tomorrow. It will be a tax election this weekend. The Tories want to

drop this tax bombshell on Labour. It has bounced back. Philip Hammond

has said he will have to raise taxes. We know he will have to raise

taxes and he has said that the 80 could go up. Why would the daily

Mirror go on the 80? That is because it hits the poor harder than the

rich. They spent about 10% of their VAT -- income on VAT. If you took

some people out of tax, it would lower the rates for higher earners.

Indeed. The issue here is that the Tories have always been the party of

fiscal firmness. They have always been the party where you think the

economy is in safe hands. It is not economy is in safe hands. It is not

the case. It is now appearing that the Labour Party could be right,

that the Tory Party is going to hit white Van man right where it hurts,

right at the exhaust pipe and ensure that he is paying more tax on a

whole. This is the whole issue. We are being appalled by two strong

forces, demographic change and the need to raise taxes in this post

Brexit world. By the Conservatives to get hot under the collar when

people say the economy is not faring as well as it could under them. We

have seen since EE referendum the economy has been faring pretty well.

Brexit has not happened yet. Another reason to have an early election

before the pain of Brexit hits. The Tories reputation, Philip Hammond

tried to raise taxes in his budget, his first budget as Chancellor and

tried to put up national insurance. That was a bomb in itself was that

it fell apart within days. One reason is they have to escape, they

have to escape from the 2015 manifesto. David Cameron thought the

Tories would not be in power. They promised no tax increases, no

national insurance increases at all during the lifetime of the

parliament. That cannot happen when you have a social care crisis. The

NHS is falling apart, education in England and Scotland as well. The

other thing which is interesting, those of us long enough in the tooth

to remember the bombshell imagery used by the Conservatives in an

election some years ago saying that Labour were about to drop it. They

are turning that on its head. They are waiting to find out whether

Labour can trumpet. In the last election they tried to say they

would follow the Tory tax spending plan and the issue here is whether

Labour will come out tomorrow and say they are. They have already

broken that orthodoxy. John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor,

has said, if you are rich, we are coming to get you. By Richie means

70,000. 70,000 does not seem rich to me. If you are earning 20... Most

people earn between 20 and 30,000. If you earn 70,000, you are rich. It

says pay and this may. Tories ready to hit white van man. The Labour

Party has said they will keep the triple lock. We do not know whether

Theresa May well. Foreign aid will be increased. How far it will be

increased, we do not know. There was a question earlier in the week about

whether .7% of GDP for foreign aid would be maintained. This was

wonderful. It showed global politics at its best and worst. Bill Gates

came in and said, hold on a minute, you started the whole philanthropic

movement to support countries that need to trade, need aid in order to

so do, and also to increase the life expectancy. And indeed lowering

poverty across the world. That has been increased. That is one of the

major forces of capitalism. It has lowered global poverty. If we are

now saying to the world, hold on a minute, we are tightening our purse

strings were not give aid anymore. What does that say to other

countries and what does that say about ourselves? As British we have

pledged to hold firm on this. To say that .7 of our GDP is not that much.

But she is saying is, hold on a minute, I'll be spending it

correctly, in the right places, the right spaces. Are we giving on a

macro level, it should be beginning on a micro level? As Britons, we

need to acknowledge that. She has been firm on that. The manifestos

will tell us where they stand. They'll be hastily written as we

write scripts for this programme tonight. There is a short space of

time to get the policies out. Theresa May is being pushed around,

mostly by the media and the Telegraph. .7% is a terrible waste

of money abroad when schools are collapsing in Britain. The

counterargument is .7% is a minuscule amount to spend abroad. Is

something Britain used to do so well. We might find ourselves who do

get a bit raw hard power. At least Theresa May has come out and said it

sticks. Sun readers earn quite a bit less than the average wage will stop

it has no, no, no. The Sunnis against any increase in VAT, getting

rid of the pension law. The sun is against. The triple lock might not

disappear entirely. They might get rid of one of the locks. The triple

lock is average earnings. It is 2.5%, or the rate of inflation,

whichever is the high. Letters not forget, there is a cohort of women

who are in the late 50s, early 60s, who have already been slapped either

government. This is causing hardship for our mothers, our auntie 's, our

grandmas. It is the whole idea that pension in itself should not be

touched. It is already being chipped away at the edges, who is receiving

it and whether it is guaranteed in certain forms. Eye-macro I am

talking to my fellow near pensioner here. Speak for yourself. I will be

working for a few years yet. We will face a demographic time bomb.

There'll be no such thing as a lock because there will no door. Pensions

have a triple lock. They are the biggest group that votes but also

the group that has been best off in the last eight years. Pensioners, on

the whole, have seen their lot improved. With the announcement they

are making, given foreign aid is unpopular with some voters and the

pension lock is popular, how much of these small details we have got so

far is a function of the fact the Conservatives, in the opinion polls

have such a big lead they feel they can afford to take that chance? Is

it confidence or arrogance? Six weeks to go. A lock can happen. OK,

the Tories of 48-24 in the polls. People say he has no chance to win.

The first round has been OK. They said he could not win the

leadership. He turned the polls around quite sharply. He is so far

behind in the polls. 48-24 in the polls. I'm the guy who is 200-1

against being the next Labour leader. The fears of Hammond tax

bombshell. Theresa May hints at axing the pension triple lock.

Philip Hammond must remember he tried to raise national insurance

rates, didn't he? That have to be turned around very quickly. It's

about who takes austerities? Is it the people who are there and can

withstand the attack, as it were, on the public purse? On the other end

you have the NHS crumbling, the idea of social care being in complete

meltdown. We do not change in the next five years will be in serious

trouble. Then we have the immigration issue. You both

mentioned NHS and social care. Social care is getting a boost of

more money. The NHS has had more money and overall spending has

increased. The number of people using it has also gone up. It is not

going to be about white van man, it is about where is my Gran. Which

hospital will they be in and are they safe? We do not look at certain

demographics. They will affect the elderly and the young who leave

university and cannot afford homes because they have too much student

debt. All we can say for certain is after the election we will all be

paying more tax. Whoever is in government will need to raise funds.

By Mac or they are not going to be too upfront about that. You cannot

All the subjects we were talking All the subjects we were talking

about have not been Brexit, have they? Brexit this, Brexit that. It

felt lame and tired. It is like the visit to the dentist. Now, suddenly,

the election is coming alive on a whole lot of issues. There will be a

whole lot more. Don't you think it would be that the Liberal Democrats

will try to talk about the idea of a softening Brexit. The Lib Dems would

talk about the idea of getting back into Europe with a second

referendum. They see a market for their policy.

The Lib Dems have nine MPs. 56 the last time. Let's have a look at the

times. A different story. President Trumper 's EU ahead of Britain in

trade Q. Merkel lands Brexit victory for Brussels. Didn't Donald Trump

say that Brexit was great for Britain. President Obama put us at

the back of the queue. The warning from the president Obama

Administration, we love you guys. Countries like to deal with the EU

as a bloc. It took seven years for Canada to negotiate a deal with the

EU. The whole idea, if we are sophisticated enough, what will we

do? Sail around on the yacht Britannia and try and individually

knock on doors to ensure that we are trading with countries of the world.

In the times they are going on a different line. Knocking on doors is

what we have been doing. Boris says we're going to get a deal. In

Washington, they held hands and it looked good for a while. Now, back

of the queue again. Angela Merkel has whispered into the year of

Donald Trump at this transatlantic trade partnership which was giving

us all last year. She said, it is not going to be that complicated.

Donald Trump likes the deal and he likes a deal is simple. What will

this do for the argument that we should retain membership of the

single market if it is going to be more difficult to negotiate trade

deals from outside? The analogy is, if I want to go and get all of my

shopping in one place, I'm not going to walk down the high street to the

fishmongers, the greengrocers, and the butchers. I want to go to one

place to collect it all. The way the market forces have been moving over

the past with industrialisation, the whole idea that the trade body will

come together and deal with it. We cannot expect in this day and age

that we are like Japan or Singapore. We Britain. We have to be part of

the market. You're beginning to sound like a remoaner. The British

argument is two things. The way our trade has adjusted from industrial

times to today is how we have industrialised as a nation. We have

links already with the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth has always found it

good to use us as an entry point to the EU. The whole issue now, if

we're proud of that, -- out of it, what influence to rehab? We are just

the outside. Let us have a look at the i. You are sniggering in my ear!

I'm just going through the sport process. The i is eye-catching.

History made, it says, green campaigners celebrate as Britain

plus manpower stations did not burn a single lump of coal yesterday.

Exactly. This is what I am saying. The whole idea of dual referendum

was based upon... Which one? The Scottish one. The oil price. Now it

has collapsed a few years later. Who would have predicted that, even five

years ago, that we would no longer be relying on our old friends, the

fossil fuels, to power this industrialised nation? Things are

changing quickly. If we do not keep a hold of it, we're going to get out

of it. Coal fuelled the Industrial Revolution and everything that came

with it. Here we are saying goodbye to coal. We said goodbye to coal. We

have learned tonnes of it to keep the lights on. We may be moving to

imported nuclear to keep our lights on in Britain until we build our own

nuclear power stations. That is why we included it. It is interesting.

That is it. Good evening. Some cooler weather

this weekend but it will be much colder next week. Despite being

cooler this weekend it looks as if most of us will