21/05/2017 The Papers


21/05/2017

A lively, informed and in-depth conversation about the Sunday papers.


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fractures to his pelvis and head. That is all the sport. Now it is Ben

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Brown with the Papers. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

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to what the papers will be With me is the political commentator

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Vincent Moss and Kevin Schofield, Let's have a look at

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the front pages... The Sunday Telegraph leads with Tory

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plans to strip people of their knighthoods

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if their behaviour is deemed unacceptable, following claims

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the public has lost faith The Sunday Times

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reports a Tory wobble in the opinion polls,

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suggesting the Conservatives' lead The Observer reports that

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Theresa May's school meals plan 'could hit 900,000 poor

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children' and there are concerns it could punish Tory

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party target voters. The Dementia Tax Backlash

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is the Mail on Sunday's headline as the paper reports

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a Survation poll suggests the Tories lead has slipped by 5%

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after its pledge to make elderly people pay for care - but they're

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still 12% ahead of Labour. Mummy Kate takes charge on Pippa's

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big day" is the picture headline Let's kick off. The papers are

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reporting the poll is narrowing. A Tory wobble, the Sunday Times

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calling it. A real Tory wobble? Not really a good story, the polls had

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been showing a significant Tory lead, cut to the lowest since the

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election was called. The majority of 46 seats, which is far what Theresa

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May and supporters were hoping for. Largely to do with the manifesto

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released, which proposed the big cuts in social care, which proved

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unpopular. The fieldwork on the poll after the manifesto launch, people

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do not like it. Does that mean the Tory manifesto backfired? In

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relation to the Labour won, a couple of days before, it did. The polling

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suggested the Labour manifesto was very popular, eye-catching pledges.

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The Tory one is much more low-key, not a lot of meat in it. As Vincent

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says, the things that were eye-catching, they were cuts to

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pensioner hand-outs. Which, as we know, that is the group that tends

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to vote. You can see why there was nervousness in Conservative HQ. On

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the other hand, polls like this may work in their favour, encouraging

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people to come out and vote. No longer a foregone conclusion. A

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senior Conservative campaign source said the poll was helpful, focusing

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the mind of voters on the choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa

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May. Guarding against complacency in Tory ranks. That is where they would

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likely Tory campaign moving to. A choice between Theresa May and

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Jeremy Corbyn, Tory high command think that is one of their strong

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points. They look like a Conservative landslide, some

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conservatives may stay at home and not vote. It may get the votes

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motivated. The narrowing of the gap is helpful to the Conservatives,

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motivating their vote. A chance that Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime

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Minister. You need to get out there and stop that. They will not be

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disappointed that the gap is narrowing. If we look at the Mail on

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Sunday, similar story. Theresa May's hopes of an election landslide

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hitting a setback last night. The polls showing strong opposition to

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the plan to make more elderly people pay for care. We have to say, is

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still a big majority. Something like 46 seat majority. Still pretty

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large. Interesting, the wording of the intro. Hopes of a landslide, not

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hopes of winning. How big a margin of victory it will be? It remains in

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the area we are. I think it does show the campaign so far, the Tories

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calling the selection, we did not need to be having an election. Not

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one supposed to be until 2020, the campaign has been quite uninspired.

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A little bit complacent. Maybe this will be the impetus. Theresa May

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says every vote counts, that has been her message every day. It will

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do. This is the key, in terms of the scale, we know the result really. We

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just don't know the score. For the successful Theresa May election, the

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majority has to go up to 70, 100 seats. Conservatives down talking

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that, but that is what they are looking for. That is why every vote

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does count. In the detail of the Mail on Sunday poll, some of the

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social care cutting figures, unsurprisingly 28% approve of the

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planned cuts in social care, seeing people only keeping up to 100,000 of

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their income. This is the same problem Labour face, when they

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pronounced it. It was pronounced as a death tax. There needs to be a

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cross-party alliance to deal with the issue was social care. At the

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moment, the time that people raise it, and you could argue the

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Conservatives are doing the right thing, as soon as the other side

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raises, 1-party pounces on it. There is no real solution to social care.

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I contacted Labour people last night when the polls were coming in. They

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are not getting overoptimistic. They are basing their assumptions on the

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message they're getting back on people's doors. They are saying

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these polls do not feel right. The feedback on the doorstep is not

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great. The feedback on the doorstep is pretty negative about their

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chances? One senior MPs said to me from it feels like the Tory campaign

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has stalled for now. But still under three weeks ago. Plenty of time for

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them to increase that. Let's go to the Observer. Stories about school

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meals proposals. The school meals plan would hit 900,000 poor

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children. Implications on Tory target voters. That they could be

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punished. A piece of research by the education policy Institute. 900,000

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poorer children. 600,000 younger children coming from ordinary

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working families. Very much saying this could hit people from lower

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income families, but people at work. The problem with a lot of the

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Conservative policies, and the voter understanding, we don't know where

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the axe will fall. Same goes with social care policies school meals,

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winter testing fuel allowance. Policies where the Conservatives

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have not the who will be affected. The risk is everyone thinks they

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could be effective. A very damaging effect on the target group of

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voters. We know they do turn out. They are worried about these issues.

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Families, and that the core issue, they don't know whether they'll be

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effective. Conservatives, if they had sense, they would put clarity on

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that. Most of you will be fine, but we need to raise money somewhere.

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This Observer story mentions, it undermines potentially Theresa May's

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promised to help families from those just about managing. When you look

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at the detail of the story, the headline is slightly misleading. Not

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900,000 poor children. About 100,000 in relative poverty. It is about

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700,000 of these just about managing working families. They are

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struggling to get by, but not actually poor. What the Tories would

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say, the poorest children will still get free school meals, as they did

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before this policy was brought in. What is interesting as well, the

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lack of detailed costings which the Tories have put forward, in contrast

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to Labour, which is annoyed Labour, they are under so much pressure to

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say how they would pay for their pledges, they produce a separate

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costings document. The Tories they think have got away with putting out

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their plans without any price tag. Once you drill down into the detail,

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the Conservatives will have to say these people will lose out, but

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these people will be protected. Another way of looking at all of

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this, the Tories know they have a healthy, commanding lead, some of

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their manifesto proposals are not that popular, but they feel they

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have the right thing to do, and they can afford to put out the right

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thing they think they should be doing for the country even though

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they are not popular. It shows confidence, that they can put

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unpopular policies in the manifesto because they think they can win.

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Shows a sign what faces us ahead post Brexit. A clear sense that

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money needs to be raised, taxes need to be raised, certain things which

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have been universal or three need to go. That set my alarm bells ringing.

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This is potentially a huge problem coming down the track. Theresa May

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seeking a mandate for that, in terms of potential tax raises. Significant

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things done from the manifesto, ruling out certain tax rises.

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National Insurance, things like that. A lots of scope, seeking scope

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for potential change. Let's go to the Sunday Times, this is an inside

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story. The message they are hearing on the doorstep, the Labour

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candidates. Do not mention Jeremy Corbyn, Labour candidates told.

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Really good story. Tim Shipman, of the Sunday Times, getting his hands

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of a recording of a conference call. Each morning the party has a

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conference call, to discuss the day ahead. How the previous day has

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gone. They get feedback from the ground. Steve Howell, Jeremy

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Corbyn's deputy director of communications recorded in this tape

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being quizzed on what to say, because Jeremy Corbyn keeps coming

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up on the doorstep. Voters concerned about Jeremy Corbyn. He says don't

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talk about Jeremy. Total but leadership. Talk about the

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manifesto. It shows there is that concern amongst Labour voters, and

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Labour HQ. The core members of team Corbin, acknowledging Jeremy is a

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drag on the polling numbers. People already speculating if it is a bad

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defeat for Labour, what happens to Jeremy Corbyn? No doubt, the further

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away from London you get, you hear of lifelong Labour voters saying I'm

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fine with the policies, the problem is a leader. They are advised to

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talk about the policy is not the leadership. A significant quote, if

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there was a Labour government, it would be collective leadership. They

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are acknowledging Jeremy Corbyn is a problem. Looks like the

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Conservatives will win, Labour will move, then it will move to what

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happens to Jeremy Corbyn. They comment on some of the papers saying

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he should go immediately. Others say he should stay on indefinitely.

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Maybe not even to oversee a leadership contest, but as leader.

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It would be popular with Jeremy Corbyn supporters across the

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country. Let's move to the Mail on Sunday. Donald Trump in Saudi

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Arabia. We have been reporting on with Frank Gardner, who is there.

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The Mail on Sunday saying it is a last chance to. Strong, he has not

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been there that long. Seems to be dealt by controversy at home. He is

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probably turning up, a good time for him to get at the country. Focus on

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other things. The world is collectively holding its breath

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about this speech. Anything, literally anything could happen.

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When Donald Trump opens his mouth. When he sends a tweet. We have to

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hope it happens without incident. He will be glad to leave Washington

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behind, the whole rusher, James Coney controversy. That will still

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be there when he gets back. He's supposed to not like long foreign

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trips. Saying I want to do fewer days, shorten the trip. At the same

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time, quite before him. He feels relieved to be getting out of

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Washington, DC. I think so, most US presidents spend more time on

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their second term on long trips. He is going to Italy as well. He

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prefers staying at home, Murad home in the Trump property a

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cheeseburger. He is out there talking about jobs. Huge trade

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deals, what he said he would do. It is great to get away from the

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domestic strife at home. Interesting to see whether he tweets from Saudi

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Arabia, or sticks to the script. He was saying, looking forward to my

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big trip. Like 16-year-old going on his first foreign trip. Incredible.

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Of course, the wedding, let's talk about that. The per's big day. The

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Sunday express, they have Kate taking charge on paper's big day.

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Telling the children to be quiet. A great picture, because apart from

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the happy couple kissing outside the church, which most papers have used.

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The express choosing a picture summing up what weddings will be for

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many families, taking children along. The paranoia in the quiet

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moments will my kids run wild? And scream, or the rest of it. We know

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that George trod on Pippa Middleton's train, there were tears

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and other pictures. You can see she's worried about what would

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happen. It is a picture that anyone who has been to a wedding will

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understand. Not many people have a Spitfire flying past and all the

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rest of it. That's it, they will associate with very much. Nine pages

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of coverage in the express. A great photo spread. As close to a royal

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wedding as we will get until Harry pops the question. That will be the

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next one. I have no inside track. I thought you were going to reveal

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something, inside clues with obviously she looks fantastic.

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Difficult not to look fantastic in the wedding dress that cost ?40,000.

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Establishing the amount of money. Expect cheaper versions in high

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street stores. Interesting that making Mark Rule did not turn up,

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ruining the bride's though. She went to the reception event. Shots of her

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in the car. No pictures of her upstaging the bride. That went at

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the Palace and the Royal family wanted. As a Scotsman I was pleased

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to see they had haggis bites as part of the wedding food. Fantastic. Is

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that tasty? Very tasty. Can confirm that was great, thank you for

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joining us. Thanks to Vincent Moss

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and Kevin Schofield. Just a reminder we take a look

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at tomorrow's front pages every Hello, Sunday should turn out to be

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a drier brighter affair for many parts of the British Isles. Dan was

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way on the western side of Scotland, way on the western side of Scotland,

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but things will change, I

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