21/05/2017 The Papers

fractures to his pelvis and head. That is all the sport. Now it is Ben

Brown with the Papers. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

to what the papers will be With me is the political commentator

Vincent Moss and Kevin Schofield, Let's have a look at

the front pages... The Sunday Telegraph leads with Tory

plans to strip people of their knighthoods

if their behaviour is deemed unacceptable, following claims

the public has lost faith The Sunday Times

reports a Tory wobble in the opinion polls,

suggesting the Conservatives' lead The Observer reports that

Theresa May's school meals plan 'could hit 900,000 poor

children' and there are concerns it could punish Tory

party target voters. The Dementia Tax Backlash

is the Mail on Sunday's headline as the paper reports

a Survation poll suggests the Tories lead has slipped by 5%

after its pledge to make elderly people pay for care - but they're

still 12% ahead of Labour. Mummy Kate takes charge on Pippa's

big day" is the picture headline Let's kick off. The papers are

reporting the poll is narrowing. A Tory wobble, the Sunday Times

calling it. A real Tory wobble? Not really a good story, the polls had

been showing a significant Tory lead, cut to the lowest since the

election was called. The majority of 46 seats, which is far what Theresa

May and supporters were hoping for. Largely to do with the manifesto

released, which proposed the big cuts in social care, which proved

unpopular. The fieldwork on the poll after the manifesto launch, people

do not like it. Does that mean the Tory manifesto backfired? In

relation to the Labour won, a couple of days before, it did. The polling

suggested the Labour manifesto was very popular, eye-catching pledges.

The Tory one is much more low-key, not a lot of meat in it. As Vincent

says, the things that were eye-catching, they were cuts to

pensioner hand-outs. Which, as we know, that is the group that tends

to vote. You can see why there was nervousness in Conservative HQ. On

the other hand, polls like this may work in their favour, encouraging

people to come out and vote. No longer a foregone conclusion. A

senior Conservative campaign source said the poll was helpful, focusing

the mind of voters on the choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa

May. Guarding against complacency in Tory ranks. That is where they would

likely Tory campaign moving to. A choice between Theresa May and

Jeremy Corbyn, Tory high command think that is one of their strong

points. They look like a Conservative landslide, some

conservatives may stay at home and not vote. It may get the votes

motivated. The narrowing of the gap is helpful to the Conservatives,

motivating their vote. A chance that Jeremy Corbyn could be Prime

Minister. You need to get out there and stop that. They will not be

disappointed that the gap is narrowing. If we look at the Mail on

Sunday, similar story. Theresa May's hopes of an election landslide

hitting a setback last night. The polls showing strong opposition to

the plan to make more elderly people pay for care. We have to say, is

still a big majority. Something like 46 seat majority. Still pretty

large. Interesting, the wording of the intro. Hopes of a landslide, not

hopes of winning. How big a margin of victory it will be? It remains in

the area we are. I think it does show the campaign so far, the Tories

calling the selection, we did not need to be having an election. Not

one supposed to be until 2020, the campaign has been quite uninspired.

A little bit complacent. Maybe this will be the impetus. Theresa May

says every vote counts, that has been her message every day. It will

do. This is the key, in terms of the scale, we know the result really. We

just don't know the score. For the successful Theresa May election, the

majority has to go up to 70, 100 seats. Conservatives down talking

that, but that is what they are looking for. That is why every vote

does count. In the detail of the Mail on Sunday poll, some of the

social care cutting figures, unsurprisingly 28% approve of the

planned cuts in social care, seeing people only keeping up to 100,000 of

their income. This is the same problem Labour face, when they

pronounced it. It was pronounced as a death tax. There needs to be a

cross-party alliance to deal with the issue was social care. At the

moment, the time that people raise it, and you could argue the

Conservatives are doing the right thing, as soon as the other side

raises, 1-party pounces on it. There is no real solution to social care.

I contacted Labour people last night when the polls were coming in. They

are not getting overoptimistic. They are basing their assumptions on the

message they're getting back on people's doors. They are saying

these polls do not feel right. The feedback on the doorstep is not

great. The feedback on the doorstep is pretty negative about their

chances? One senior MPs said to me from it feels like the Tory campaign

has stalled for now. But still under three weeks ago. Plenty of time for

them to increase that. Let's go to the Observer. Stories about school

meals proposals. The school meals plan would hit 900,000 poor

children. Implications on Tory target voters. That they could be

punished. A piece of research by the education policy Institute. 900,000

poorer children. 600,000 younger children coming from ordinary

working families. Very much saying this could hit people from lower

income families, but people at work. The problem with a lot of the

Conservative policies, and the voter understanding, we don't know where

the axe will fall. Same goes with social care policies school meals,

winter testing fuel allowance. Policies where the Conservatives

have not the who will be affected. The risk is everyone thinks they

could be effective. A very damaging effect on the target group of

voters. We know they do turn out. They are worried about these issues.

Families, and that the core issue, they don't know whether they'll be

effective. Conservatives, if they had sense, they would put clarity on

that. Most of you will be fine, but we need to raise money somewhere.

This Observer story mentions, it undermines potentially Theresa May's

promised to help families from those just about managing. When you look

at the detail of the story, the headline is slightly misleading. Not

900,000 poor children. About 100,000 in relative poverty. It is about

700,000 of these just about managing working families. They are

struggling to get by, but not actually poor. What the Tories would

say, the poorest children will still get free school meals, as they did

before this policy was brought in. What is interesting as well, the

lack of detailed costings which the Tories have put forward, in contrast

to Labour, which is annoyed Labour, they are under so much pressure to

say how they would pay for their pledges, they produce a separate

costings document. The Tories they think have got away with putting out

their plans without any price tag. Once you drill down into the detail,

the Conservatives will have to say these people will lose out, but

these people will be protected. Another way of looking at all of

this, the Tories know they have a healthy, commanding lead, some of

their manifesto proposals are not that popular, but they feel they

have the right thing to do, and they can afford to put out the right

thing they think they should be doing for the country even though

they are not popular. It shows confidence, that they can put

unpopular policies in the manifesto because they think they can win.

Shows a sign what faces us ahead post Brexit. A clear sense that

money needs to be raised, taxes need to be raised, certain things which

have been universal or three need to go. That set my alarm bells ringing.

This is potentially a huge problem coming down the track. Theresa May

seeking a mandate for that, in terms of potential tax raises. Significant

things done from the manifesto, ruling out certain tax rises.

National Insurance, things like that. A lots of scope, seeking scope

for potential change. Let's go to the Sunday Times, this is an inside

story. The message they are hearing on the doorstep, the Labour

candidates. Do not mention Jeremy Corbyn, Labour candidates told.

Really good story. Tim Shipman, of the Sunday Times, getting his hands

of a recording of a conference call. Each morning the party has a

conference call, to discuss the day ahead. How the previous day has

gone. They get feedback from the ground. Steve Howell, Jeremy

Corbyn's deputy director of communications recorded in this tape

being quizzed on what to say, because Jeremy Corbyn keeps coming

up on the doorstep. Voters concerned about Jeremy Corbyn. He says don't

talk about Jeremy. Total but leadership. Talk about the

manifesto. It shows there is that concern amongst Labour voters, and

Labour HQ. The core members of team Corbin, acknowledging Jeremy is a

drag on the polling numbers. People already speculating if it is a bad

defeat for Labour, what happens to Jeremy Corbyn? No doubt, the further

away from London you get, you hear of lifelong Labour voters saying I'm

fine with the policies, the problem is a leader. They are advised to

talk about the policy is not the leadership. A significant quote, if

there was a Labour government, it would be collective leadership. They

are acknowledging Jeremy Corbyn is a problem. Looks like the

Conservatives will win, Labour will move, then it will move to what

happens to Jeremy Corbyn. They comment on some of the papers saying

he should go immediately. Others say he should stay on indefinitely.

Maybe not even to oversee a leadership contest, but as leader.

It would be popular with Jeremy Corbyn supporters across the

country. Let's move to the Mail on Sunday. Donald Trump in Saudi

Arabia. We have been reporting on with Frank Gardner, who is there.

The Mail on Sunday saying it is a last chance to. Strong, he has not

been there that long. Seems to be dealt by controversy at home. He is

probably turning up, a good time for him to get at the country. Focus on

other things. The world is collectively holding its breath

about this speech. Anything, literally anything could happen.

When Donald Trump opens his mouth. When he sends a tweet. We have to

hope it happens without incident. He will be glad to leave Washington

behind, the whole rusher, James Coney controversy. That will still

be there when he gets back. He's supposed to not like long foreign

trips. Saying I want to do fewer days, shorten the trip. At the same

time, quite before him. He feels relieved to be getting out of

Washington, DC. I think so, most US presidents spend more time on

their second term on long trips. He is going to Italy as well. He

prefers staying at home, Murad home in the Trump property a

cheeseburger. He is out there talking about jobs. Huge trade

deals, what he said he would do. It is great to get away from the

domestic strife at home. Interesting to see whether he tweets from Saudi

Arabia, or sticks to the script. He was saying, looking forward to my

big trip. Like 16-year-old going on his first foreign trip. Incredible.

Of course, the wedding, let's talk about that. The per's big day. The

Sunday express, they have Kate taking charge on paper's big day.

Telling the children to be quiet. A great picture, because apart from

the happy couple kissing outside the church, which most papers have used.

The express choosing a picture summing up what weddings will be for

many families, taking children along. The paranoia in the quiet

moments will my kids run wild? And scream, or the rest of it. We know

that George trod on Pippa Middleton's train, there were tears

and other pictures. You can see she's worried about what would

happen. It is a picture that anyone who has been to a wedding will

understand. Not many people have a Spitfire flying past and all the

rest of it. That's it, they will associate with very much. Nine pages

of coverage in the express. A great photo spread. As close to a royal

wedding as we will get until Harry pops the question. That will be the

next one. I have no inside track. I thought you were going to reveal

something, inside clues with obviously she looks fantastic.

Difficult not to look fantastic in the wedding dress that cost ?40,000.

Establishing the amount of money. Expect cheaper versions in high

street stores. Interesting that making Mark Rule did not turn up,

ruining the bride's though. She went to the reception event. Shots of her

in the car. No pictures of her upstaging the bride. That went at

the Palace and the Royal family wanted. As a Scotsman I was pleased

to see they had haggis bites as part of the wedding food. Fantastic. Is

that tasty? Very tasty. Can confirm that was great, thank you for

joining us. Thanks to Vincent Moss

and Kevin Schofield. Just a reminder we take a look

at tomorrow's front pages every Hello, Sunday should turn out to be

a drier brighter affair for many parts of the British Isles. Dan was

way on the western side of Scotland, way on the western side of Scotland,

but things will change, I