02/09/2017 The Papers


02/09/2017

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my guess is Marcel Thereux, and we are talking about his story about

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storytelling, and why it matters. Hello and welcome to our look ahead

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to what the papers will be With me are Nigel Nelson,

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who is the political editor at the Sunday Mirror

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and Sunday People, and the political Tomorrow's front pages: The Observer

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says that the Prime Minister, Theresa May, is facing a revolt

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from remain supporting Conservative The same story leads

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the Sunday Telegraph, with Tory rebels being told to back

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Brexit or get Corbyn. The Sunday Times also leads

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with a Brexit story. It says Theresa May has secretly

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agreed a ?50 billion divorce bill The Mail on Sunday claims that

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Theresa May ignored a memo from Sir Lynton Crosby

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telling her not to risk a snap And the Express front page has

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the news that Moors Murderer, Ian Brady, who died in May,

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left presents to pen-pals including So let's begin, and Nigel, I will

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get you to kick us off this time. We will start with the Sunday Telegraph

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where we are going Brexit to begin with. Tory rebels being rapped over

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the knuckles in advance of a busy week. Parliament comes back on

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Tuesday after a long break and the first thing they are faced with is

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the great repeal bill, now they have dropped the great. That puts all EU

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law into British law on Brexit date, which is basically quite sensible.

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However, a lot of Tory MPs do not like this very much. They are

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worried about the government basically taking too many powers

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away from Parliament and handing it to Whitehall. So the Telegraph as

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saying that six of them may well rebel. It could be even more than

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that. At the same time, Labour objects to the bill because it

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doesn't put in the protections they want to see in it and they will be

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voting against it and they are encouraging the Tories to come

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across. In the Sunday papers, a charm offensive by Damian Green,

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first Secretary of State, who was effectively Theresa May's Deputy

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Prime Minister. He is appealing for Tory unity. Theresa May is in every

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paper asking for Tory unity as well. David Davis is in another Sunday

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paper doing the same thing. It is quite a co-ordinated effort.

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Probably she will get through this week. If she doesn't, the government

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falls, which is their warning. And as the Telegraph says, then you end

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up with Jeremy Corbyn, as they would be a general election. Probably

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these MPs will hold their fire and try and amend the bill in committee.

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Still a problem for her because she relies completely on this bill to

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get Brexit through. It is all about numbers, isn't it? It undermines

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completely her slim majority, this absolutely way the then seeing which

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is going to be the difference between her staying in power and

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Jeremy Corbyn getting in -- wafer-thin thing. Or possibly Brexit

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never happening and ending up with a hung parliament again. We were

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talking earlier and saying I feel like I have heard this argument

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about could the Tories be united and put their splits to one side? I feel

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like I have heard that all my adult life. And there is Bill Cash quoted,

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just to make sure it feels like a rerun. You think either get on and

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do the job that you have got us into by calling the referendum that David

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Cameron... And we will come at him later, and just get to it. But this

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is all the worst sort of venal party politics. You have Corbyn who

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doesn't want an election, you have Theresa May, who doesn't want an

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election because Corbyn might win. Then you have the SNP and Democrats

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and a few rebels and you have Conservative MPs saying don't bully

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us, we will do what we think is right for the country. I think that

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is probably right. And the election is quite important. Although Jeremy

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Corbyn has to say he wants an election, he doesn't really want to

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have to negotiate Brexit. Much better to pick up the pieces right

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at the end of it and try and put right anything that might be wrong.

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Talking about election, much has been made this week, and it has

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picked up in articles tomorrow, about Theresa May saying she is in

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it for the long-term and will be around for the next election. That

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has caused some disquiet. I read a story last week naming the date that

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she would go. This is making the assumption that as she had indicated

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to Tory MPs, she wouldn't stay beyond September 20 19. I did a

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story working out the date from that with Tory election rules and the

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Parliamentary timetable, and 30 August 2019, a Friday, when she

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would have to quit. Suddenly she goes to Japan and make the

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announcement she will stay, which astonished all of us. Not least the

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Tory party. You had Lord Heseltine coming out, Grant Shapps, pointing

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out that this is not in her gift. The Tory party decides the leader,

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not the leader. And she was asked directly by one of our BBC political

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correspondent, and once she says she is not Steyn, people will say it is

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unstable, and we can't negotiate with her. She showed the ability to

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mess up the election and what she has said is I will stay as long as

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the Tory party and the country want me. That is all you have to say. You

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are not putting a timetable on it. The next question is does that mean

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after Brexit? She could repeat the same answer, I will stay as long as

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and so on. It has gone down well, calming the waters in the Tory

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party. Suddenly she says this and kicks up a huge storm again. Another

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huge storm brewing in the Sunday Times, suggesting she is getting too

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busy and making secret deals before anything is announced. And as Chris

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Mason said when you were talking to him earlier, it is so secret it is

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on the front page of the Sunday Times. Allegedly she has agreed a

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?50 billion Brexit deal, so she wants to approve this after the

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Conservative Party conference in October, in a bid to try and

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kickstart talks with the European Union, and Britain would pay between

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?7 billion and ?17 billion a year to Brussels, and Downing Street

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completely denying this and saying there is no truth in it. A source

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close to Tim Shipman or close to Number Ten, I should say, sorry, a

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source close to Theresa May, says they are planning how to do the

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Brexit Bill, and whether to do it as an early payment. Again, it is

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coming back to numbers, and we still don't know what the bill is going to

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be. We still don't know what the cost of the negotiations is going to

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be. And over what a long period of time. And rather oddly, I think,

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given that most Sunday papers rather like doing polls and things, they

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have a survey saying seven out of ten voters and four out of ten

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Tories disagreed with Mrs May's assertion that she should fight the

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next election. 30% of voters want her to fight on, 40% want her to

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quit before 2022. I find it odd that they didn't put that further up.

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When it comes to this, it is time we got figures out there. A whole of

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the negotiation is being held up as of money, and if Barnier says this

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is the money we want from you, then we are in a negotiation. It is David

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Davis's duty to beat him down on whatever it is but at least we have

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a starting point. It is the fact we have no figure which means we are

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having talks about talks six months after Article 50 was triggered.

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Let's go back in time with the Mail on Sunday, because they have a story

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which takes us back to the snap general election and that Theresa

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May was warned it was a catastrophic mistake. Yes, so this is a secret

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paper which has been leaked to the Mail on Sunday, and it is a memo

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from Sir Lynton Crosby, the Australian election guru who helped

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David Cameron wind two elections and Boris Johnson when two terms as

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Mayor of London. He was away in Fiji on a long planned family holiday for

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his wife's birthday. Does he wish he had stayed there now? I suspect he

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probably does. He was told that they were thinking of going for an early

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election and he said I don't think that is a very good idea, mate. Not

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to the Prime Minister, but somebody quite senior, and said what research

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have you been doing? He is... I don't know him, you probably do,

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Nigel, but he is renowned for being absolutely rigid. His message was

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who do you trust on the economy, and not on foxhunting and everything

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else. His advice was clearly this is a high-risk strategy, there is no

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guarantee you will get the landslide the polls are currently predicting.

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And of course, she ignored it and we all know now what a total shambles

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it was. And mainly the blame game, inevitably, goes back to Fiona Hill

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and Nick Timothy. You have a fascinating, a great... Well, an

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interesting picture comparing Nick Timothy to Rasputin, mostly in line

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with the beard. The character has a bit to do with it as well. Or a Mac

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and we hear this thing that we have heard so often, that Theresa May's

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him ignored Crosby's advice out of spite. You get an adviser who thinks

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they have more power, and they exclude other people, and that is

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where you end up with a shambles. What did you make of this, Nigel?

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There is a lot of unpicking of who said what. It is a blame game. What

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is interesting about the article is Lynton Crosby was responsible for

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making a presidential campaign and making Theresa May the centre of it.

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Clearly a mistake, she wasn't up to that. Equally you had Nick Timothy

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and Fiona Hill, with an iron grip on Downing Street already causing

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problems, and making a huge cache of the party manifesto. Everybody takes

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the blame for it. Ultimately it is with the Prime Minister because it

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was her choice to call the election in the first place. We will move

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away from Brexit to something totally different. This is in the

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Sunday express, about health tourism, particularly on the issue

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of cancer. It is a fascinating piece, this one. It is from Doctor

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Thomas, a cancer specialist at the Royal Marsden Hospital in London and

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he says that one in 20 patients he treats as a health tourist.

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Interestingly he is talking about the fact that the bill for health

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tourism is probably hugely underrated. At the moment it is

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reckoned at about ?2 billion, he thinks it is much higher. The

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government are trying to do something about this. They want

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people who come in and are not entitled to NHS treatment to put a

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deposit down, at least to pay for the nonurgent treatment they have.

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What Doctor Thomas says it is they don't have the staff in hospitals to

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actually administer that. So effectively not working. Clearly

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warning like that from a person like that needs to be taken seriously.

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They have a way of dealing with it. If it is not working they need to

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make it work. I will have to rattle through, because there is a lot we

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want to get through. Onto the Observer, and at the bottom, not

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their main story because they were on Brexit as well. A clampdown on

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fixed odds betting. There has been a lot of concern about this,

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particularly from gambling addiction charities, because touchscreen

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roulette things, and the argument is that gamblers at the moment can play

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casino games with stakes of up to ?100 every 20 seconds, which in

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extreme cases means a player can gamble away ?80,000 in an hour.

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Gambling charities, addiction charities, want the stakes to be

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lowered to about ?2. Now, obviously that would have implications for the

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Treasury, and so there has been a bit of... Sort of I think, that the

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Treasury wanted to keep money but obviously be seen to do the right

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thing. You have the Department of culture, media and sport saying they

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must do something about this. In a letter to the Bishop of St Albans,

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one Doctor Alan Smith, the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has

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assured the Bishop that they are going to do something about it, and

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they are going to look at it. It is four columns of a story that is the

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government rights to the Bishop to say don't worry about it, we are

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looking at it. But they have to lower the stakes, because there is

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not a lot else you can do to control this. And have fewer of them on the

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high street. They target poorer areas. We have been running a

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campaign on the Sunday people the two years about this. It is

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essential you have fewer of them, the stakes are much lower, and stop

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targeting poorer and vulnerable people.

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Let's go back to the Sunday Telegraph

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Let's go back to the Sunday Telegraph and the bottom of the

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page, tucked away, a story about the NHS terrifying older women who

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choose to have a child in later life. This has come from Professor

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Cathy Warwick, the outgoing chief executive of the Royal College of

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midwives and a midwife herself, saying health professionals have

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overstated the risks attached to age of older mothers... I think as you

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probably know, I think it is something like 35 or 36 and you are

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a geriatric as a mother. Devastating. Terribly upsetting for

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women. What she is saying is the sensible, if you are healthy, your

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risks are only a little bit greater than if you have a baby in your 20s

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but there are a lot more women having children in their 40s, there

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are more children born to women over 40 than under 20 but nevertheless,

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the facts speak for themselves, rates of stillbirth and Down's

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syndrome do increase with older pregnancies. My mother was over 40

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and I'm still here. And perfectly normal as far as we can tell! Let's

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finish on the story tucked inside the Sunday express, Nigel, a picture

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of David Cameron with this shorts on at the corn free music festival but

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he's planning on going further afield? He's going to south Dakota,

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to the wild west. A lovely story, he has an ?800,000 publishing deal, he

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makes ?125,000 an hour for a speech, he's not really on this uppers but

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he's going to Rapids city in South Dakota and he's going to give a talk

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for ?5 a head and I hope they thoroughly enjoy it. Apparently the

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tickets are selling rather well. Rapids city is a place where there's

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a civics centre and its organised by... It's the Jonty Bloom Vukovic

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foundation speaker series. In 1994 Mrs Thatcher gave a speech in the

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town, it is close to the town of Devon. They have heard Colin Powell

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and Benazir Bhutto. The place to be for ?5, $11, and ?2 30 if you are a

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student. The suggestion from the headline would be it is all going

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down the pan but he is esteemed company. I hope he puts some better

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clothes on! Thanks very much, Jo and Nigel, great to have you with us

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again. Coming up next it's time

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for Meet the Author. A story about storytelling, that

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myth and belief, about human curiosity and our weakness for a

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secret.

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