02/09/2017 The Papers


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my guess is Marcel Thereux, and we are talking about his story about


storytelling, and why it matters. Hello and welcome to our look ahead


to what the papers will be With me are Nigel Nelson,


who is the political editor at the Sunday Mirror


and Sunday People, and the political Tomorrow's front pages: The Observer


says that the Prime Minister, Theresa May, is facing a revolt


from remain supporting Conservative The same story leads


the Sunday Telegraph, with Tory rebels being told to back


Brexit or get Corbyn. The Sunday Times also leads


with a Brexit story. It says Theresa May has secretly


agreed a ?50 billion divorce bill The Mail on Sunday claims that


Theresa May ignored a memo from Sir Lynton Crosby


telling her not to risk a snap And the Express front page has


the news that Moors Murderer, Ian Brady, who died in May,


left presents to pen-pals including So let's begin, and Nigel, I will


get you to kick us off this time. We will start with the Sunday Telegraph


where we are going Brexit to begin with. Tory rebels being rapped over


the knuckles in advance of a busy week. Parliament comes back on


Tuesday after a long break and the first thing they are faced with is


the great repeal bill, now they have dropped the great. That puts all EU


law into British law on Brexit date, which is basically quite sensible.


However, a lot of Tory MPs do not like this very much. They are


worried about the government basically taking too many powers


away from Parliament and handing it to Whitehall. So the Telegraph as


saying that six of them may well rebel. It could be even more than


that. At the same time, Labour objects to the bill because it


doesn't put in the protections they want to see in it and they will be


voting against it and they are encouraging the Tories to come


across. In the Sunday papers, a charm offensive by Damian Green,


first Secretary of State, who was effectively Theresa May's Deputy


Prime Minister. He is appealing for Tory unity. Theresa May is in every


paper asking for Tory unity as well. David Davis is in another Sunday


paper doing the same thing. It is quite a co-ordinated effort.


Probably she will get through this week. If she doesn't, the government


falls, which is their warning. And as the Telegraph says, then you end


up with Jeremy Corbyn, as they would be a general election. Probably


these MPs will hold their fire and try and amend the bill in committee.


Still a problem for her because she relies completely on this bill to


get Brexit through. It is all about numbers, isn't it? It undermines


completely her slim majority, this absolutely way the then seeing which


is going to be the difference between her staying in power and


Jeremy Corbyn getting in -- wafer-thin thing. Or possibly Brexit


never happening and ending up with a hung parliament again. We were


talking earlier and saying I feel like I have heard this argument


about could the Tories be united and put their splits to one side? I feel


like I have heard that all my adult life. And there is Bill Cash quoted,


just to make sure it feels like a rerun. You think either get on and


do the job that you have got us into by calling the referendum that David


Cameron... And we will come at him later, and just get to it. But this


is all the worst sort of venal party politics. You have Corbyn who


doesn't want an election, you have Theresa May, who doesn't want an


election because Corbyn might win. Then you have the SNP and Democrats


and a few rebels and you have Conservative MPs saying don't bully


us, we will do what we think is right for the country. I think that


is probably right. And the election is quite important. Although Jeremy


Corbyn has to say he wants an election, he doesn't really want to


have to negotiate Brexit. Much better to pick up the pieces right


at the end of it and try and put right anything that might be wrong.


Talking about election, much has been made this week, and it has


picked up in articles tomorrow, about Theresa May saying she is in


it for the long-term and will be around for the next election. That


has caused some disquiet. I read a story last week naming the date that


she would go. This is making the assumption that as she had indicated


to Tory MPs, she wouldn't stay beyond September 20 19. I did a


story working out the date from that with Tory election rules and the


Parliamentary timetable, and 30 August 2019, a Friday, when she


would have to quit. Suddenly she goes to Japan and make the


announcement she will stay, which astonished all of us. Not least the


Tory party. You had Lord Heseltine coming out, Grant Shapps, pointing


out that this is not in her gift. The Tory party decides the leader,


not the leader. And she was asked directly by one of our BBC political


correspondent, and once she says she is not Steyn, people will say it is


unstable, and we can't negotiate with her. She showed the ability to


mess up the election and what she has said is I will stay as long as


the Tory party and the country want me. That is all you have to say. You


are not putting a timetable on it. The next question is does that mean


after Brexit? She could repeat the same answer, I will stay as long as


and so on. It has gone down well, calming the waters in the Tory


party. Suddenly she says this and kicks up a huge storm again. Another


huge storm brewing in the Sunday Times, suggesting she is getting too


busy and making secret deals before anything is announced. And as Chris


Mason said when you were talking to him earlier, it is so secret it is


on the front page of the Sunday Times. Allegedly she has agreed a


?50 billion Brexit deal, so she wants to approve this after the


Conservative Party conference in October, in a bid to try and


kickstart talks with the European Union, and Britain would pay between


?7 billion and ?17 billion a year to Brussels, and Downing Street


completely denying this and saying there is no truth in it. A source


close to Tim Shipman or close to Number Ten, I should say, sorry, a


source close to Theresa May, says they are planning how to do the


Brexit Bill, and whether to do it as an early payment. Again, it is


coming back to numbers, and we still don't know what the bill is going to


be. We still don't know what the cost of the negotiations is going to


be. And over what a long period of time. And rather oddly, I think,


given that most Sunday papers rather like doing polls and things, they


have a survey saying seven out of ten voters and four out of ten


Tories disagreed with Mrs May's assertion that she should fight the


next election. 30% of voters want her to fight on, 40% want her to


quit before 2022. I find it odd that they didn't put that further up.


When it comes to this, it is time we got figures out there. A whole of


the negotiation is being held up as of money, and if Barnier says this


is the money we want from you, then we are in a negotiation. It is David


Davis's duty to beat him down on whatever it is but at least we have


a starting point. It is the fact we have no figure which means we are


having talks about talks six months after Article 50 was triggered.


Let's go back in time with the Mail on Sunday, because they have a story


which takes us back to the snap general election and that Theresa


May was warned it was a catastrophic mistake. Yes, so this is a secret


paper which has been leaked to the Mail on Sunday, and it is a memo


from Sir Lynton Crosby, the Australian election guru who helped


David Cameron wind two elections and Boris Johnson when two terms as


Mayor of London. He was away in Fiji on a long planned family holiday for


his wife's birthday. Does he wish he had stayed there now? I suspect he


probably does. He was told that they were thinking of going for an early


election and he said I don't think that is a very good idea, mate. Not


to the Prime Minister, but somebody quite senior, and said what research


have you been doing? He is... I don't know him, you probably do,


Nigel, but he is renowned for being absolutely rigid. His message was


who do you trust on the economy, and not on foxhunting and everything


else. His advice was clearly this is a high-risk strategy, there is no


guarantee you will get the landslide the polls are currently predicting.


And of course, she ignored it and we all know now what a total shambles


it was. And mainly the blame game, inevitably, goes back to Fiona Hill


and Nick Timothy. You have a fascinating, a great... Well, an


interesting picture comparing Nick Timothy to Rasputin, mostly in line


with the beard. The character has a bit to do with it as well. Or a Mac


and we hear this thing that we have heard so often, that Theresa May's


him ignored Crosby's advice out of spite. You get an adviser who thinks


they have more power, and they exclude other people, and that is


where you end up with a shambles. What did you make of this, Nigel?


There is a lot of unpicking of who said what. It is a blame game. What


is interesting about the article is Lynton Crosby was responsible for


making a presidential campaign and making Theresa May the centre of it.


Clearly a mistake, she wasn't up to that. Equally you had Nick Timothy


and Fiona Hill, with an iron grip on Downing Street already causing


problems, and making a huge cache of the party manifesto. Everybody takes


the blame for it. Ultimately it is with the Prime Minister because it


was her choice to call the election in the first place. We will move


away from Brexit to something totally different. This is in the


Sunday express, about health tourism, particularly on the issue


of cancer. It is a fascinating piece, this one. It is from Doctor


Thomas, a cancer specialist at the Royal Marsden Hospital in London and


he says that one in 20 patients he treats as a health tourist.


Interestingly he is talking about the fact that the bill for health


tourism is probably hugely underrated. At the moment it is


reckoned at about ?2 billion, he thinks it is much higher. The


government are trying to do something about this. They want


people who come in and are not entitled to NHS treatment to put a


deposit down, at least to pay for the nonurgent treatment they have.


What Doctor Thomas says it is they don't have the staff in hospitals to


actually administer that. So effectively not working. Clearly


warning like that from a person like that needs to be taken seriously.


They have a way of dealing with it. If it is not working they need to


make it work. I will have to rattle through, because there is a lot we


want to get through. Onto the Observer, and at the bottom, not


their main story because they were on Brexit as well. A clampdown on


fixed odds betting. There has been a lot of concern about this,


particularly from gambling addiction charities, because touchscreen


roulette things, and the argument is that gamblers at the moment can play


casino games with stakes of up to ?100 every 20 seconds, which in


extreme cases means a player can gamble away ?80,000 in an hour.


Gambling charities, addiction charities, want the stakes to be


lowered to about ?2. Now, obviously that would have implications for the


Treasury, and so there has been a bit of... Sort of I think, that the


Treasury wanted to keep money but obviously be seen to do the right


thing. You have the Department of culture, media and sport saying they


must do something about this. In a letter to the Bishop of St Albans,


one Doctor Alan Smith, the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has


assured the Bishop that they are going to do something about it, and


they are going to look at it. It is four columns of a story that is the


government rights to the Bishop to say don't worry about it, we are


looking at it. But they have to lower the stakes, because there is


not a lot else you can do to control this. And have fewer of them on the


high street. They target poorer areas. We have been running a


campaign on the Sunday people the two years about this. It is


essential you have fewer of them, the stakes are much lower, and stop


targeting poorer and vulnerable people.


Let's go back to the Sunday Telegraph


Let's go back to the Sunday Telegraph and the bottom of the


page, tucked away, a story about the NHS terrifying older women who


choose to have a child in later life. This has come from Professor


Cathy Warwick, the outgoing chief executive of the Royal College of


midwives and a midwife herself, saying health professionals have


overstated the risks attached to age of older mothers... I think as you


probably know, I think it is something like 35 or 36 and you are


a geriatric as a mother. Devastating. Terribly upsetting for


women. What she is saying is the sensible, if you are healthy, your


risks are only a little bit greater than if you have a baby in your 20s


but there are a lot more women having children in their 40s, there


are more children born to women over 40 than under 20 but nevertheless,


the facts speak for themselves, rates of stillbirth and Down's


syndrome do increase with older pregnancies. My mother was over 40


and I'm still here. And perfectly normal as far as we can tell! Let's


finish on the story tucked inside the Sunday express, Nigel, a picture


of David Cameron with this shorts on at the corn free music festival but


he's planning on going further afield? He's going to south Dakota,


to the wild west. A lovely story, he has an ?800,000 publishing deal, he


makes ?125,000 an hour for a speech, he's not really on this uppers but


he's going to Rapids city in South Dakota and he's going to give a talk


for ?5 a head and I hope they thoroughly enjoy it. Apparently the


tickets are selling rather well. Rapids city is a place where there's


a civics centre and its organised by... It's the Jonty Bloom Vukovic


foundation speaker series. In 1994 Mrs Thatcher gave a speech in the


town, it is close to the town of Devon. They have heard Colin Powell


and Benazir Bhutto. The place to be for ?5, $11, and ?2 30 if you are a


student. The suggestion from the headline would be it is all going


down the pan but he is esteemed company. I hope he puts some better


clothes on! Thanks very much, Jo and Nigel, great to have you with us


again. Coming up next it's time


for Meet the Author. A story about storytelling, that


myth and belief, about human curiosity and our weakness for a




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