Browse content similar to 22/11/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
Hello and welcome to our look ahead
to what the the papers will be | 0:00:14 | 0:00:17 | |
bringing us tomorrow. | 0:00:18 | 0:00:20 | |
With me are Caroline Wheeler,
deputy political editor | 0:00:20 | 0:00:23 | |
at the Sunday Times, and Ben Chu,
economics editor of the Independent. | 0:00:23 | 0:00:33 | |
Tomorrow's front pages -
starting with... | 0:00:33 | 0:00:37 | |
The Financial Times leads
with the Chancellor's budget, | 0:00:37 | 0:00:41 | |
writing that it's been overshadowed
by the biggest downgrade in economic | 0:00:41 | 0:00:43 | |
growth since the financial crisis. | 0:00:43 | 0:00:46 | |
The Telegraph headlines
with the budget's abolishing | 0:00:46 | 0:00:49 | |
of stamp duty for some
first-time buyers. | 0:00:49 | 0:00:53 | |
The Metro says that Philip Hammond
has tried to help millions get | 0:00:53 | 0:00:56 | |
onto the housing ladder,
but that experts believe it | 0:00:56 | 0:00:58 | |
will just raise prices. | 0:00:58 | 0:01:01 | |
The Express writes that
Number 11 have unveiled | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
a £3 billion package for Brexit,
which the paper says, | 0:01:03 | 0:01:07 | |
shows the UK is ready to leave
the EU without a deal. | 0:01:07 | 0:01:10 | |
The Times says the Chancellor
has eased off austerity | 0:01:10 | 0:01:16 | |
with a £25 billion giveaway
to counter political | 0:01:16 | 0:01:18 | |
and economic pressures. | 0:01:18 | 0:01:19 | |
The Guardian claims Mr Hammond
is trying to mask Britain's | 0:01:19 | 0:01:22 | |
deteriorating economic situation
by pledging to revive | 0:01:22 | 0:01:23 | |
the homeowning dream. | 0:01:23 | 0:01:26 | |
And the Mail takes back it's
nickname for the Chancellor - | 0:01:26 | 0:01:29 | |
Eeyore - which he was given
for his gloomy outlook on Brexit. | 0:01:29 | 0:01:39 | |
They have all taken slightly
different takes. Let's start with | 0:01:40 | 0:01:45 | |
the Financial Times. A grim outlook
overshadows housing drive. That kind | 0:01:45 | 0:01:49 | |
of sums up the budget. Some positive
headlines for some people, but | 0:01:49 | 0:01:55 | |
things not looking too good on the
economic front. That's right, and | 0:01:55 | 0:02:00 | |
that's happened with a few
announcements and economic words, | 0:02:00 | 0:02:05 | |
where he basically described the
fact that the growth forecast had | 0:02:05 | 0:02:09 | |
been slashed on the run-up to this
spending review period, which gave | 0:02:09 | 0:02:14 | |
him less wiggle room to do
interesting things with. When we | 0:02:14 | 0:02:20 | |
started this budget cycle, it always
begins after party conference | 0:02:20 | 0:02:24 | |
season. The initial trajectory was
that this would be a big, bold, make | 0:02:24 | 0:02:30 | |
or break budget for the Chancellor,
a career show stopping budget. The | 0:02:30 | 0:02:38 | |
fact that these forecasts came out
at the same time meant he had | 0:02:38 | 0:02:43 | |
limited ability to make
announcements, and that set the tone | 0:02:43 | 0:02:46 | |
for the budget, which is why he got
that out the way to begin with as | 0:02:46 | 0:02:51 | |
almost a warning shot to MPs. Saying
that the economy is not doing as | 0:02:51 | 0:02:57 | |
well as expected, so downgrade your
expectation a bit. | 0:02:57 | 0:03:03 | |
The Telegraph has an awful lot on
the budget on its front page. | 0:03:03 | 0:03:08 | |
Outlook gloomy, but there to be
proved wrong. It is relatively early | 0:03:08 | 0:03:14 | |
days for Theresa May, but not for
the Conservative government. They | 0:03:14 | 0:03:19 | |
will have wanted better headlines
about the economy. Of course. | 0:03:19 | 0:03:24 | |
Hammond came in saying, I'm really
up beat and positive about Brexit, | 0:03:24 | 0:03:30 | |
trying to throw off this Eeyore name
that he's been given for being too | 0:03:30 | 0:03:33 | |
gloomy and downbeat. Then he had to
present this catastrophically bad | 0:03:33 | 0:03:41 | |
growth forecast. These are the worst
five-year growth forecast ever | 0:03:41 | 0:03:46 | |
produced by the OBR since it was set
up. Never have they had growth | 0:03:46 | 0:03:51 | |
forecast lower than 2%. This is the
worst of any of the Treasury | 0:03:51 | 0:03:56 | |
forecasts as well. What is causing
it? Interestingly, everyone is | 0:03:56 | 0:04:03 | |
implying it's about Brexit. But it
isn't. The OBR has decided that our | 0:04:03 | 0:04:08 | |
productivity and growth potential is
weaker than had been thought. Since | 0:04:08 | 0:04:18 | |
the financial crisis, it was assumed
that our growth would bounce back to | 0:04:18 | 0:04:24 | |
2.5%, but that hasn't happened.
That's why the growth forecast is | 0:04:24 | 0:04:28 | |
bad and borrowing is up, and why the
outlook is bleak. Let's look at some | 0:04:28 | 0:04:34 | |
of the positives. A helping hand for
first-time buyers, but even then, | 0:04:34 | 0:04:41 | |
experts are saying, it's not as good
as you think. Another surprising | 0:04:41 | 0:04:45 | |
thing about the budget, other the
fact that Philip Hammond cracked a | 0:04:45 | 0:04:52 | |
few jokes, such as saying that he'd
asked the Prime Minister to bring | 0:04:52 | 0:04:59 | |
him some cough sweets. He looked
really happy about that. He did. The | 0:04:59 | 0:05:04 | |
stamp duty announcement was one of
those that had been widely rumoured | 0:05:04 | 0:05:11 | |
that it might come about. This is to
help first-time buyers. There's been | 0:05:11 | 0:05:17 | |
a feeling within the political
movement, particularly since Jeremy | 0:05:17 | 0:05:22 | |
Corbyn started making key
announcements around younger voters, | 0:05:22 | 0:05:28 | |
that the Conservatives were not
doing enough to support younger | 0:05:28 | 0:05:31 | |
voters, and that there was a
intergenerational unfairness, | 0:05:31 | 0:05:37 | |
particularly around housing. This
was their way of trying to help them | 0:05:37 | 0:05:41 | |
to do this, reducing the amount of
tax they pay when buying their first | 0:05:41 | 0:05:47 | |
property up to £300,000, and
reducing the amount they pay on | 0:05:47 | 0:05:52 | |
homes up to £500,000. But the OBR
immediately poured a little bit of | 0:05:52 | 0:05:58 | |
cold water on it, saying it would
only help 3500 people, and that it | 0:05:58 | 0:06:04 | |
would push up house prices and was
one of these things that was | 0:06:04 | 0:06:09 | |
potentially open to misuse by people
pretending to be first-time buyers, | 0:06:09 | 0:06:16 | |
suggesting that the only thing that
would stop them is the fact they | 0:06:16 | 0:06:20 | |
would have to lie to their
solicitors. And there is the | 0:06:20 | 0:06:24 | |
overwhelming task of saving up for a
deposit in the first place. The | 0:06:24 | 0:06:28 | |
cartoon on the front page of the
Telegraph sums it up. House prices | 0:06:28 | 0:06:34 | |
go up because demand goes up. Estate
agents saying, no more than two | 0:06:34 | 0:06:39 | |
young people at any time. If you are
stoking up demand, you are feeding | 0:06:39 | 0:06:45 | |
the problem rather than solving it.
The solution lies in more supply. | 0:06:45 | 0:06:51 | |
The trouble with the stamp duty cut
is that it pushes up prices, and it | 0:06:51 | 0:06:56 | |
isn't dealing with the supply issue.
It is just helping a fuel lucky | 0:06:56 | 0:07:02 | |
people who will benefit, but doesn't
address the problem. We have seen | 0:07:02 | 0:07:08 | |
headlines about £44 billion for
housing. That is not government | 0:07:08 | 0:07:12 | |
cash. It is slightly obscure
guarantees. It is a big number and | 0:07:12 | 0:07:20 | |
it's not surprising the Treasury
want to push that out there. But we | 0:07:20 | 0:07:25 | |
don't know how many homes will
actually be built. The Times says | 0:07:25 | 0:07:30 | |
that Hammond eases off austerity.
Really? They are making a lot of the | 0:07:30 | 0:07:36 | |
idea that he has this £25 billion
giveaway. But there are smoke and | 0:07:36 | 0:07:43 | |
mirrors here, particularly with
housing, the possibility that savvy | 0:07:43 | 0:07:48 | |
Javed was pushing, this £50 billion
for the government to invest in a | 0:07:48 | 0:07:56 | |
house building scheme. Actually what
we got was a £50 billion | 0:07:56 | 0:08:02 | |
announcement that wasn't actually
government money. It falls a long | 0:08:02 | 0:08:05 | |
way short of what had been asked for
per year. It is kind of smoke and | 0:08:05 | 0:08:14 | |
mirrors. It has been described as
Hammond's hard hat budget. There is | 0:08:14 | 0:08:22 | |
an image of a concrete mixer there.
It was a tough budget for him as | 0:08:22 | 0:08:28 | |
well as for everyone else that it
affects. He didn't have a lot to | 0:08:28 | 0:08:32 | |
play with. He didn't. Very high
personal stake for him, because | 0:08:32 | 0:08:38 | |
after his last budget in March, he
put up national insurance on the | 0:08:38 | 0:08:45 | |
self employed, and Downing Street
basically told him to undo it, which | 0:08:45 | 0:08:50 | |
was a humiliating reversal. He had
to get this one right. That's why he | 0:08:50 | 0:08:56 | |
was so cautious. We knew stamp duty
was coming, so there was nothing | 0:08:56 | 0:09:01 | |
surprising in it. Apparently, he had
been running it passed a lot of Tory | 0:09:01 | 0:09:06 | |
MPs to make sure there was nothing
they could complain about. He played | 0:09:06 | 0:09:11 | |
it very safe. Some papers saying
that this budget tells us about the | 0:09:11 | 0:09:19 | |
Brexit plans. UK faces worst decade
of economic growth in 60 years. The | 0:09:19 | 0:09:27 | |
deficit will not be wiped out until
at least 2031, and we have to get to | 0:09:27 | 0:09:33 | |
the other side of Brexit. The
interesting thing is that it doesn't | 0:09:33 | 0:09:38 | |
factor in Brexit really. The OBR was
pointing towards her Florence | 0:09:38 | 0:09:46 | |
speech, which indicated a divorce
bill of about £20 billion. Other | 0:09:46 | 0:09:52 | |
indications show that it could be
more than twice that. That hasn't | 0:09:52 | 0:09:57 | |
been factored into these figures,
neither has what we get from these | 0:09:57 | 0:10:03 | |
negotiations. Transition has not
been pinned down, and that could | 0:10:03 | 0:10:09 | |
really impact businesses if we don't
get that pin down before the end of | 0:10:09 | 0:10:13 | |
the next quarter. The Daily Express
describes it as £3 billion to speed | 0:10:13 | 0:10:19 | |
up the EU exit. Showing that the
government, it says, is willing to | 0:10:19 | 0:10:27 | |
have no deal. I think it will add up
to more than that. There was this | 0:10:27 | 0:10:32 | |
debate between Hammond and the rest
of the Cabinet as to whether he | 0:10:32 | 0:10:35 | |
should put more money aside to deal
with Brexit. They are spinning it as | 0:10:35 | 0:10:47 | |
good for Brexit, because it shows we
have this money to spend. £3 billion | 0:10:47 | 0:10:55 | |
is not going to cut it and it smacks
of a massive compromise. It shows | 0:10:55 | 0:11:02 | |
that Downing Street have won out. A
month ago he was saying that it was | 0:11:02 | 0:11:07 | |
irresponsible to open up the cough
and spend money on Brexit. Let's | 0:11:07 | 0:11:13 | |
have a look at Buzzfeed. They always
have a slightly different take. They | 0:11:13 | 0:11:17 | |
are very close to the ground. They
are taking the line that it is going | 0:11:17 | 0:11:31 | |
to cut down on tax dodging by
Internet companies. That is | 0:11:31 | 0:11:35 | |
something that a lot of people get
angry about. And fair enough, it is | 0:11:35 | 0:11:41 | |
profit shifting. They don't pay
corporation tax because they | 0:11:41 | 0:11:46 | |
artificially shift their profits out
of the UK. That didn't grab many | 0:11:46 | 0:11:50 | |
headlines. That's because they've
been hammering away at this issue | 0:11:50 | 0:11:55 | |
for a while. Hammond is trying to
tighten up existing measures | 0:11:55 | 0:12:04 | |
further. This is also about VAT,
which is another tech element of it. | 0:12:04 | 0:12:10 | |
These platforms where people are not
paying VAT they are trying to bring | 0:12:10 | 0:12:15 | |
that into line. It is essentially
digital companies which are avoiding | 0:12:15 | 0:12:22 | |
tax. Caroline, with all of your
connections at Number 10, you can | 0:12:22 | 0:12:27 | |
describe what's going on in the
Daily Mail. It's an interesting one. | 0:12:27 | 0:12:32 | |
The idea that he is no longer this
Eeyore. That was his nickname | 0:12:32 | 0:12:38 | |
because he was always so pessimistic
about everything. Despite everything | 0:12:38 | 0:12:43 | |
we have heard about the growth
forecasts, the Daily Mail has | 0:12:43 | 0:12:49 | |
decided to go on a more optimistic
picture of the budget, talking about | 0:12:49 | 0:12:54 | |
the help for first-time buyers,
which says more about the | 0:12:54 | 0:12:58 | |
positioning of the Daily Mail than
anything else. A lot of papers have | 0:12:58 | 0:13:02 | |
been critical of the Chancellor, who
was a remain voting minister. | 0:13:02 | 0:13:11 | |
Hammond has got a kicking from that
particular camp, so the fact they | 0:13:11 | 0:13:16 | |
have come out in favour of him shows
he is in the Prime Minister's good | 0:13:16 | 0:13:20 | |
books at the moment. Caroline, Ben,
thank you for taking us through the | 0:13:20 | 0:13:27 | |
front pages. | 0:13:27 | 0:13:29 | |
Don't forget you can see the front
pages of the papers online | 0:13:29 | 0:13:32 | |
on the BBC News website. | 0:13:32 | 0:13:33 | |
It's all there for you - seven days
a week at bbc.co.uk/papers. | 0:13:33 | 0:13:36 | |
If you miss the programme any
evening, you can watch it | 0:13:36 | 0:13:39 | |
later on BBC iPlayer. | 0:13:39 | 0:13:40 | |
Thank you to my guests,
Caroline Wheeler and Ben Chu. | 0:13:40 | 0:13:42 |