04/12/2011 The Politics Show Wales


Jon Sopel and Aled ap Dafydd with analysis of the political scene shaping Wales.

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Later, change or face problems that beset their health service after


the Second World War. And jazz the eurozone crisis but


Apology for the loss of subtitles for 2017 seconds


did repatriation of powers on the Welcome to the Politics Show in


Wales. Coming up, the euro, pensions, business confidence and


Christmas. But first the senior -- a senior


figure in the NHS has said that if proposed changes to the NHS do not


change, the problems that beset health care after the Second World


War will return. Professor Sir Mansel Aylward, told us that the


poor could be left in a dark hole, with their health deteriorating


rapidly. For many years, reports have warned


the Welsh NHS must change radically, or face being overwhelmed. Until


now, change has been at best limited. The most recent document


warning the NHS of the need for reform came in May, from the bed in


commission, made up of health professionals and expires. --


experts. It was chaired by Sir Mansell Aylward. It was promised


that changes would be made, and more services offered at home. The


head of the public advisory body... What should the NHS in Wales look


like in 10 years' time, if the reforms that you want to see are


actually acted on. It is defined as world-class health care, and if we


can say that the system is as good as or better than elsewhere, that


would be good. We can use it as a benchmark. It will be a service


that will be safer for people to going to hospital. The service were


people who go into hospital will not have to stay there. A service


where much of the work that is done and secondary care hospitals now it


is moved into the community. People will be able to access care in


their own home. Their own GP will be able to provide them with a


better range of options. There will be local health centres which will


focus upon not just looking at curing people, but looking at


improving the health and other ways, by exploiting the link between


public health, the NHS and local government. It will be a safer


system, a quality improved system. We have heard many warnings over


the years, saying the NHS has to change, things are unsustainable.


Disaster if things don't happen. You do not get the impression that


changes have happen. -- have happened. I feel depressed and


disappointed that there has been little progress. The demographic


changes, people are getting older, and therefore we have a lot of -- a


larger population of people who have larger problems than the


younger population. Medical advances, technical advances, they


all contribute to how will be managed to pay for the NHS and


deliver the services we want? There has been progress. Certainly the


NHS reforms where we have got single unified health boards, and


we haven't -- abandoned the market approach, they have brought a much


more focused emphasis to the NHS on quality and care, and provision.


But we have not really cracked it. Together for Health, which the


Minister launched a couple of weeks ago, that is another vision. It is


very similar to addressing the issues that have been addressed all


along, but to me, it has a greater commitment to it, and says things


that have not been said before. It talks about not just dealing with


care, but avoiding illness, which is very important. In short, my


answer is yes, we need to do a lot more. But we're not going to get


many more chances. In the past we had plenty of money, and perhaps we


spent it wrongly. Now we have got no money -- more money, and that


will force us to think about changing to better quality, safer


hospitals. We have emotional attachments, particularly to our


local hospitals. Do you need to tell us that if everything is done


at your local hospital, you are frankly more likely to die, than if


you went that much further a weightier more specialised


facilities? No, we do not want to scare you about that, and what we


should remember is nowadays there are people who have unusual


diseases Andreea conditions, -- rare conditions, and you cannot


always deliver that at the local level. It would be foolhardy to say


that we should all be treated in the same way at the District


Hospital, which the minister says they will continue. You have to


have specialised centres. We have got to look at the conditions


people they have, and match them to treatment they have. We do need


general hospitals, and we need health centres, but we also need


specialised centres. The other area where we can avoid risk is the


campaign was based on the fact that there are deaths in hospital that


are run avoid -- are avoidable. I was involved in the beginning with


this, and I tried to persuade politicians that this was not a


message that would frighten people. It was saying, this is what is


happening, this is a measure of the quality you get in hospital. Not


just in Wales, but throughout the world. That was accepted, but many


people said you cannot tell people they are going to die in hospital.


But people do die in hospital, and we expect that. We do not expect


people to die is this could have been avoidable. We are trying to


avoid mistakes. I want you, as the public, to say, I am not putting up


with this, I want a better quality of life and health care, and I do


not want to be a risk when I going to hospital. That is what we want


NHS Wales to be like. If the reforms are not made, if the


changes do not happen, how a ragged could NHS services get? When we


first spoke about the NHS in 1960. People were dying earlier, people


were dying of diseases that could not be cured, people were dying of


minor things. That Panorama that was around post war will be again,


we will have post-Cold lotteries, and most importantly the richer


would get better, there is no two ways about that, and the poorer


would get poorer, and their health would deteriorate markedly. Because


what the NHS does, and we must be mindful of the fact that the NHS is


about people who are poor, indeed, in distress, and need a better NHS


service. It is like the man who is robbed of his memory because of


Alzheimer's disease, and the elderly lady who needs a hip


operation, this is what the NHS is all about, and we cannot forsake


them. So we must do well, but we must avoid those people being left


in the dark hole. Professor Sir Mansel Aylward, thank you very much.


Thank you. David Cameron insists he will


defend Britain's interests of European treaties are rewritten in


the wake of the eurozone debt crisis. He is preparing to attend a


crisis summit with other European leaders this week. I spoke to two


senior -- former MEPs. Wayne David and Jonathan Evans.


The centralising member state budgets, that will depend on what


control you are talking about. It is important for Britain to be


there, and the national interests to be protected. But if David


Cameron follows what the Euro- sceptics are saying, then some


countries are likely to say we will do her own thing, and we're on the


sidelines. The 10 countries who are not in the euro are on the


sidelines to some extent in the debate, which is a good thing.


There are very many people in Parliament who are due to be in the


euro, who would like to forget some of the remarks made at the time, --


at the time. But you cannot sideline the 10 who are not in the


euro from being actively involved in economic conditions, but we


would not want to have or budgets being looked over by the Germans


and French, being approved by Angela Merkel, and Mr Sarkozy. For


a short period of time, they may be prepared to sign up to this in


order to get themselves through the immediate crisis, but I think there


is a huge political question about whether the countries will be


comfortable for a long time, with Berlin deciding their economic


policy. If the this treaty change in the future, David Cameron has on


records as saying he wants to protect Britain's interests. What


do you think he has in mind? think he has in mind getting back


the opt-outs in relation to social policy that John Major had


negotiated and agreed to the country, which were later given


away by Tony Blair. He will want to have some security in relation to


the City of London, and he has raised that already. These are big


issues for us. If the treaty change his Berlin deciding to approve the


EU budgets for the other 17 countries in the eurozone area, I


would a car -- regard that as a major change, not a trivial change.


If that is so, it is perfectly likely that the Prime Minister will


be saying, if that is going to take place we have got to have British


interests protect it. What should be the priority for David Cameron?


Should it be protecting the single currency, single market, or


repatriating powers back to this country? The first priority has to


make sure of the stability inside the euro-zone. Not because we are


concerned about the eurozone as such, but it has a huge impact on


the United Kingdom. 3 million jobs are dependent on the stability in


the eurozone. It is very important that Cameron goes there and does


everything he can to ensure that France and Germany especially give


a coherent lead to make sure the Spiller -- stability is at Chief.


How much of this is about the politics of it? Of David Cameron is


going to be concentrating on the eurozone crisis and not so much on


repatriating powers, there will be some backbenchers in your party up


in arms. There are many backbenchers who would not want to


be in the European Union, but I am not one of them. I share the view


it is positive for us to be in the single market. But that does not


mean that on Major -- a major priority on anything is to link the


two what Berlin and Paris suggest. They have to look after the British


interests. The answer for the instability as for Angela Merkel to


grasp the nettle. If she talks endlessly about more Europe, more


integration, she has to put the credibility of Germany and its


economic credibility behind some of the other states which are at the


margins, and I am afraid that so far, meeting after meeting, the


Germans have not done that. Hopefully in the next 10 days, that


will take place, because until it does the crisis will continue.


wonder if the eurozone crisis has played into the hands of the pro


Europeans, that they are now coming out to say that we need European


countries to work better together, that needs to be more integration


to secure the euro, and we are hearing less voices saying let's


get powers back from Brussels. think it is the case that there has


been a lot of flag-waving -- flag- waving among certain Euro-sceptics.


Jonathan is clearly not one of them. That is harmful to Britain's


national interest. This is a serious situation, and we always


need to know what is best for Britain. For 200 years, the United


Kingdom has taken the view that her role is to be in with the European


partners, not necessarily been part of Europe all the time, and I think


that is what is going to happen. David Cameron must say that this is


in Britain's national interest. I believe Germany has to take a more


positive role, I would like to see the development of eurobonds,


greater role for the European Central Bank. That would be in


their best interest, and the crucial thing for us is not how far


can we get away from it, but how far can we be there making sure our


national interests are protected? Can be turned to another subject in


the news, which is public sector pensions. Lord Hutton Today said


that this is a credible offer by the present government. He is


letting your party down, after being a member of the former Labour


government, isn't he? I do not think he is. Whether it is a good


offer is another matter altogether. The trade unions are right to be


making sure they get the best deal for their members. The trade unions


naturally want the best possible deal for them. Some people would


argue that credible and good are quite similar. No, there is a big


difference. There is no doubt that the figures stack up, but is that


the point? It is about whether everything is going to fall, or if


we have a responsible position adopted by the trade unions. I


believe that there will be a coming together of the government changes


its position, which I believe it will do. I believe the situation is


so serious that we have to get away from tribalism and politics. I


think... I am very concerned about what impact the changes have on the


public sector, but at the same time the unions have claimed until now


that John Hutton said the current system is completely sustainable. I


have had letters from my constituents who have said that.


But John Hutton has made it clear that what the Government has put


forward as a credible answer, and if we do not go forward with the


change, ultimately we make -- might end up hitting the buffers. I asked


a colleague last week, Alan Cairns, whether it was feared if public


sector workers would be retiring on pensions of 3,000 or �4,000 a year,


after the reforms kicked in. Is that a fair settlement who have


given their working lives to the public sector? That statistic, in


terms of �3,000, is nonsense. The reality is that in order to produce


that figure, all of the people who have only worked for a short period


of time in the public sector are added into the numbers. The reality


is that if you have spent a lifetime working in the public


sector, you will end up with a significantly better pension than


someone who has worked a lifetime in the private sector. The current


level of those pensions, being based on final salaries. Final


salaries for some people, who are paid very big wages, are


unsustainable. John Hutton has said that, and he also said putting


Labour tribalism to one side, this is a credible offer. Do you think


union leader should go the extra mile so we can have a settlements


in? I think everyone has to go the extra mile, because it is important.


It is as important a settlement is reached. We have to recognise that


we are talking about people not to our rich and affluent, like some of


the top executives in businesses, but lowly paid people. It has been


one of the accepted things and the public sector that although the


wages might not be good, pensions were good. Having an attack on


pensions and the way it has been handled is very unfair and regress


of the stock the offer is protecting lower-paid people.


the people at the top who are suffering a major loss. But the


figures do not bear that out. you very much for joining us for.


We will continue with the economy, more can -- specifically the Welsh


economy. I enjoyed by a Istin Davies, the reality is that we are


seeing less people spending money. Yes, people are shopping more


frequently, but less money is being spent. We need to make opportunity


for local businesses over the shopping p it. Are there are less


people walking through the doors, or the availability for loans -- of


loans from banks, what are the specifics regarding the businesses


are? They are all adding together to create a pest -- Perfect Storm.


As you go shopping, the Christmas spirit is an important part of what


we experience at this time of year. Local traders can provide you with


the special something that adds value to the economy, but to the


experience at Christmas. If you are run manufacturing more detail, or


providing a service, this time of year is incredibly important. Small


businesses are notoriously difficult, and we're making the


most of this period. A lot of shops are starting their Christmas sales.


Is that a sign of how bad things are? I do not think so, I think it


is a sign of how committed the traders are to commit to the


customers and make sure there is added value over the Christmas


period, which means something to the customers. It also adds to the


sense of well-being. Economic confidence is fragile, but it is


important that small businesses are allowed to contribute the attic


just a moving. -- to that at the moment. Did you see anything in the


Autumn Statement foreign figures from the Welsh government that will


give businesses some hope? There are some nuggets of Christmas cheer


coming from Westminster. There are some good signs coming from Cardiff


Bay as well. We need to bring them together to develop a strong


message. Cardiff Bay has to say this is how we're going to support


the Welsh economy, to make sure we're going to drive the economy


forward. I suppose the problem is that people have less money in


their pockets, and it is very hard to entice them to spend what little


money there have. Indeed. We need to seek creative marketing


strategies. It is not the time to look for new markets, but it is the


time to go for existing business and show that you are providing


value. Thank you very much. Let us not forget that Christmas is


on its way, amid the gloom. Earlier this week the presiding Officer


Rosemary Butler invited two schools to the Senedd to decorate the


I would like a real pony. I would like and a C D C C D. -- AC/DC


albums. The children have been decorating the tree is this morning.


They told me what you would like for Christmas. What would you like?


I have a long list, but I will not share with that. I would like to be


with my family and friends and enjoy Christmas. It is a wonderful


time of the year. I am looking forward to relaxing after a busy


session. What would you like to see the assembly achieve next year?


you know, last March the people of Wales gave us a resounding Yes in


the referendum. My hope for next year is to make sure that people --


we start bringing Delors through that are made for people in Wales.


-- the laws. The Government has been dragging their heels, there


are still no new legislation has been brought forward. Who has been


dragging their heels? I will be moving it forward and a speedy


manner. Ponies, AC/DC albums and as in the


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