25/02/2016 The View

A selection correction for Sinn Fein in Fermanagh South Tyrone.

And in, out, or undecided - it's business versus politics

She was on the ballot paper, off the ballot paper,

Tonight we ask what went wrong with Sinn Fein's selection process

Michelle Gildernew says her focus now is on fighting May's election.

One of the candidates in this constituency headed up the

enterprise Department for seven years and very few jobs were brought

to Fermanagh. She obviously was not looking very hard if that is what

she is saying. Plus, the gloves are off

in the debate over staying As the debate hots up we'll hear

from business leaders and a politican on both

sides of the argument. the fashion gauntlet,

dressed for success in Commentators' Corner are Dawn Purvis

and Chris Donnelly. She's been both the Sinn Fein MP and

an MLA for Fermangh South Tyrone, but getting her name on the ballot

paper for May's election Now Michelle Gildernew has spoken

publicly for the first time about the recent controversy

surrounding the selection Our Political Correspondent,

Stephen Walker, has been to the constituency to examine

the electoral battle This place always provides election

headlines. Sands, Bobby, H Block, Armagh, political prisoner,

30,000... 492. I would expect nothing better from the scum of Sinn

Fein than to come out like this. We won this seat by four votes, anyone

who did five minutes work in this election could claim those votes. In

recent weeks, Sinn Fein have produced their own drama here in

their attempts to select assembly candidates. At Sinn Fein's first

selection convention three candidates were chosen and they

included the Shell Guild. There was no room on the ticket for the

sitting MLA. That conversion was deemed invalid and the sacking

commission was held. This time Flanagan was reinstated and Michelle

Gildernew did not make the list. This main Sinn Fein had chosen three

male candidates with none of them representing the Tyrone end of the

constituency. A third convention was held and this time, Michelle

Gildernew was reinstated. In her first interview about the selection

process, the former MP says common sense has finally prevailed. The

first convention saw me getting through and been a candidate and the

second one, the vote was split and I narrowly missed out and I think

people realised that they could not run Fermanagh South Tyrone assembly

elections without not only the gender balance being wrong but the

fact that there were three Fermanagh men on the ticket. Did it hurt when

you were not selected?. I was disappointed. People were very

shocked. That is the nature of a democratic decision within the

party. I think a lot of people were surprised that I lost out. Was

everything about the selection process above board? Things were run

impeccably. There was a disparity in the figures. Someone accidentally

got two Darren -- ballot papers but I cannot fault either in the

December convention or the January convention. Things were run

properly? Absolutely. Another local woman on the ballot paper in May

will be the First Minister Arlene Foster. She says she is baffled by

Sinn Fein's decisions. It was a rather strange selection process for

Sinn Fein and they eventually got the situation where Michelle was

back in the race and was an unedifying sight to see the way in

which Sinn Fein conducted themselves. In fact you may say that

the Democratic Unionist party is the only party with stability in

Fermanagh South Tyrone, we are going forward with our two candidates

unanimously endorsed by the local association. Arlene Foster's running

mate will be Lord Morrow the social development Minister. The Ulster

Unionists have one seat here and they are hoping for a second. We are

going to make a very positive approach within the selection. We

are pushing ahead, the momentum currently we feel is with the Ulster

Unionist Party. We have a very strong team of

counsellors in Fermanagh and South Tyrone and we are looking to build

on that and we are looking to push to return two Ulster Unionist

candidate to the Assembly. Within nationalism there will be a battle

but for years Sinn Fein have had the upper hand. If BST PR serious about

making an impact it is in places like this where they will have to

succeed. Despite the fact that in previous assembly elections there

about has been decreasing, party activists here are convinced they

can recapture the seat they lost five years ago. How will the SDLP

fare in a constituency dominated by the larger parties and well known

politicians? The First Minister is in the constituency. Michelle being

the former Agriculture Minister, and former MP, but the fact is all

parties are big hitters in some sense of the word. We are in there

in the fight and we are in there to take back the seat irrespective of

everyone else. What will dominate the election? For many, the economy

is key. One of the Candlewick -- candidates in this constituency

headed up the enterprise murmured and very few jobs were brought to

Fermanagh. We have got to address the issues affecting daily lives,

the state of the roads, schools, health is a massive issue here and

we need to send people back into the Assembly who can represent our

constituents to the best of their ability. That criticism is aimed at

all in cost who was once Economy Minister. Of course we brought jobs

and we hope to bring more and I am proud of the skills base here. I

worked with the Southwest College and all of the schools to make sure

that we have the appropriate skills and I look forward to more jobs

coming in the future. Some say that extra help is needed. We need more

support and we need more jobs to keep our youth here. There is no

point in educating our youth for export as a has-been in the past. It

is not just the economy that will feature on the campaign trail. It is

health, education, our infrastructure. Particularly in

Fermanagh there have been issues around flooding which has been a big

issue and I think the executive have failed to tackle the issue head on.

This constituency is normally evenly split between Unionist and

nationalist votes. During the campaign there will be plenty of

political arguments and as the ballot paper reveals, no shortage of

personalities. We're just a few days

into a referendum campaign that's due to last for four months,

but already the battle-lines have been firmly drawn

and the debate between the ins Tonight I'm joined by

representatives from the worlds of business and politics -

an evenly matched foursome for and against staying

in the European Union. Welcome Ian Paisley

and David Dobbin, Ian Paisley, the Prime Minister says

the UK will be safer stronger and better off remaining in the EU, our

vote to leave would be a leap in the dark. How has he got that wrong? Can

I say this, I am naturally a Eurosceptic but Iraq's nice that

there is integrity in this quarrel. This is not just about them and us,

the atmosphere in Parliament this week for those who are sceptics,

there is still a lot of uncertainty and that is the point. There is

uncertainty in all of this, we can stand still, and hope that things

get better in a failing Europe and a failing process or we can take that

step and say let us try and change things and there will always be

uncertainties but I believe that if we pull out of Europe we will get a

better deal, we will be able to negotiate a better deal, take charge

of our own affairs for the first time in a generation. You saying

there would be less uncertainty by leaving the EU? Look at the deal

that David Cameron brought back. At least Neville Chamberlain had the

decency to bring paper with him. Mr Cameron has brought back nothing.

For example, he cannot give us any facts on what will happen to

immigration, he cannot give us any facts in terms of what will happen

regarding the payment of benefits. He cannot... I know this that for

every pound that we get back from Europe, we have to give ?1 58 and

the businessmen in this debate would not go in for a daylight that, why

should the ordinary public have their money taken from them. You

have criticised the EU in the past but you think the right choice is

for the UK to stay in the EU? Ian Paisley has given reasons why he

disagrees, why do think you are right and he is wrong? Business,

particularly in my sector, agri- foods, it is really concerned about

the significant downsides of leaving. They are worried about

market disruption, they are worried about the uncertainty, they are

worried about the loss of subsidies to farmers. When you add all those

things up, those downsides are not matched by any certainty of what we

would get in terms of leaving and the benefits. The benefits are I

suppose paraded, but they are not absolute, they are what might be.

You're not sure about what the scenario might be if the UK remains

in the EU and that is the point of Ian Paisley. Your side of the

argument is critical of the absence of facts but you do not have so many

facts either. In agri- foods, there is ?2.5 billion of subsidies,

locally to our farmers. As a business, in Dale Farm, we export to

40 companies worldwide, we have access to 500 million people in the

European market with no tariff barriers, single market with

arrangements and we have trade arrangements with the EU in many

other countries worldwide. If we left the EU, what trade arrangements

are there? It would take years to recreate the arrangements we have,

years to create some of the legislation we have and I do not

think the people you're talking about leaving and worked out the

logistics and the sheer amount of work replacing what we have got. We

have taken evidence on this point because David said he is concerned,

I am concerned about them as someone who has a large agri- foods business

in my constituency, his business is in my constituency but the evidence

we have received from the likes of Graham Gudgin, there was subsidy

before we entered Europe for farms and will be subsidy if we exit

Europe. Countries currently in Europe but not in the EU have their

own farm subsidy programme which is more generous than that in the EU.

We will have sufficient money because we are already putting in

more money than we are getting out. I want to bring in our other test,

Erwin Armstrong, your business is in North arm -- North Antrim. Would you

be in a better situation from a business perspective taking that

leap in the dark -- Irwin Armstrong? I think we have to look at the whole

debate. One is within Northern Ireland and how it impacts on

Northern Ireland and the whole UK and I think people are missing the

fact as to how much impact the European Union has on what we do in

Northern Ireland. At the moment I and many others and politicians

worked for a long time to get a reduction incorporation tax, to get

that, we had to come up with best estimates, ?250 million a year, the

first five years was ?1.25 billion, it is coming out of the Northern

Ireland budget to pay for that. That would automatically be released into

the Northern Ireland economy to do other things with. The second thing,

having gotten that reduction, our local Parliament does not have any

control over what grants invest NI can give, that is dictated from

Europe. Two years ago, they were restricted heavily in what they

could give out -- 39-macro. What about the obstacles put in your way

if the UK exits the European Union? -- Invest NI. It would make that

difficult for us to trade. That is ridiculous. Why? About 20% of the

exports from the 27, I cannot see the 27 given up 20% of their exports

and that includes the South of Ireland. An imbalance of 85 billion

a year, we import 85 billion more than we export to the 27. It is an

absolute nonsense to suggest that the European Union, people like

Mercedes, Volkswagen, BMW, the car companies, the cheese companies, the

wine companies, will give up the UK market.

So are they talking rubbish when they say they want to think long and

hard about it? Part of my job is to forecast forward and we look at the

information that is available and we say, what is the rational and

sensible thing for everyone to do? If you are telling me that the

people within Europe are not sensible and rational, I do not

accept that as a proposition. Bill Wolsey, you do not look as if you

are persuaded by what Irwin Armstrong is saying. You have been

shaking your head. I am not because quite often the rhetoric does not

match the reality. I would question the figures there. Over 50% of our

exports are to the EU but they only take 10% from us and the onus on us

is to stay where we have at least a degree of certainty, to stay within

an organisation that we all recognise is not a brilliant

organisation and there are problems within it but to get a change within

the organisation you have to there. If we leave it is just living in the

world of fantasy to think that the EU will put out the hand of

friendship to us and not put difficult tariffs in our way, that

is nonsense. In the 1950s when we missed the boat and we eventually

joined the EU, the EU did not give us terms that were entirely

welcoming, they made things difficult for us and they will do

exactly the same if we leave. How do you respond to that? The argument

very often is but that the UK exits the EU there will be a lot of

tariffs and trade barriers put in place. We will still have to live

within a lot of the European rules and regulations but we will not be

part of the decision-making process. The balances the other way around.

Europe will come knocking on the door. Our trade is already going the

other way, for example. In the last four years UK exports have increased

40% of countries outside of the EU. They have grown only 28% the other

way. We're actually benefiting from trade outside the rest of the EU and

we should continue with that trade. At the end of the day this will be a

judgment call. The public out there will have to make a judgment call on

what they feeling better and what I think is important in this debate is

that it is driven by the facts. It is very difficult to get at the

facts. I think when you cut through some of the waffle on some of the

talk goes around, there are very ordinary facts out there. Europe is

broken, Europe has actually fail the ordinary men and women across Europe

and failed to address the big issues of immigration and fails to address

the big issues that have confronted your the last ten years and we have

to think that it cannot be fixed internally, David Cameron has failed

to fix it so let us get a better deal. Do you think your facts

waffle? 46% of our exports from the UK go to Europe and 10% of their

exports come to us. Europe is the single biggest trading partner and

Germany is nearly as big as the US in taking products. If I take the

Northern Ireland industry we have investors that we have brought in

through Invest NI who have come here for access to the European market

and we will at risk inward investment and exports and

subsidies. The British government, I broke -- I wrote to a British

minister last week for help but the response was they do not have the

budget amid you want to help you. The help I've got in the past has

been from Europe because I have relied on French and Irish farmers

to represent the case of Northern Ireland farmers and Europe has been

much more supportive of the agricultural sector. If that is the

case, if these facts are correct, it means that businesses, which are

succeeding at the moment, will be imperilled by a British exit from

the EU. At the moment we pay ?9 billion every single year which we

never get back on Matiz almost all of what Northern Ireland pays. That

is the net contribution. We have the opportunity on balance of getting

that back and a significant proportion of that would go into

farm subsidy, there is no doubt about that. Also in the Barnett

Formula, hundreds of millions of pounds of that money would come back

to Northern Ireland and give us a net benefit if we pull out. Bill?

Statistics, damn lies, everyone can quote statistics but the figures

that I have read show that ?300 goes out of every household in the UK but

the benefit to each household is ?3000 so you can argue that either

way but I think that the farming industry I can't understand all

tall, why they would be against leaving, considering the amount of

subsidies they get but the move out from somewhere where released we

understand the system and we are hopefully starting to move closer

and move together and I would personally like to see the merging

of nationalities and there are a host of reasons why we should stay.

Can I ask you what you think about the community view from the farming

community? A huge amount of money comes into agriculture from the EU

every year and you know that farming is terribly important to the economy

of North Antrim, I'm concerned about the detrimental impact that could

have on your neighbours and your friends? I am concerned that the

money in the benefit system that goes to farmers at the minute, I do

not claim to be an expert but it seems to be linked to how many acres

you have. It may be more complicated than that but that is basically how

it works. That is not the sensible way to work with farmers. What the

local government should be doing is aiding farmers with things to make

them more profitable and more efficient and targeted at things we

are good at in Northern Ireland and we are good at a lot of things in

Northern Ireland and I think Dale farm is a good example of what you

can do with experts around the world. If you target the money

properly, once Europe has got its single farm payments, that they did

away with and introduced a new system, it is not a sensible way to

help farmers. You are obviously close to the agri- food sector and

it is primarily what you do I do know how farmers think and what

makes them tick. What you think of the Ulster farmers union position on

the referendum, it says it wants a debate but it can see no compelling

case to leave the EU at this point because it wants farmers to sue the

facts as they are and make up their romance. Is that a sensible

approach? I run a farming co-operative and I know this year

that those farmers will heavily rely on in the current depressed market

on the farm benefit. I know that I rely heavily on trade agreements in

place and I know that the British government doesn't have the

apparatus, doesn't have betrayed ability to recreate those quickly if

we leave. Further to that, the single biggest cost this year is the

linking -- the Living Wage, introduced by the Chancellor, an

apprentice tax introduced by the Chancellor, to say that in some way

the British government has a track record of giving largess and Europe

hasn't is wrong. Europe has actually been a good regional supporter of

development in Northern Ireland. How do you respond? To date there is no

compelling argument made that agriculture would be better off

outside the EU and those people need to rise to that challenge. The EU

budget in UK terms accounts were 2% of the entire budget. It is hardly

largess we are getting. We could get a better deal for farmers if we take

grip of this situation and actually use the money that we are currently

giving to Europe and never seeing again. Norway isn't in the EU and

hast to pay a fairly significant amount of money to have access and

it has to match most of the legislation in the EU so the idea

that we will get all of our contribution back, that is the gross

contribution but it is only 5 billion net and with all the

benefits of market access, if someone said to anyone tomorrow you

would have access to a market of 500 million people with no tariffs,

would you walk from? That you want to be another world markets, your

growth will not be in Europe, your growth is going to be in Russia and

all of those countries. Other people need access to that and Europe is

restricting you. I have pork farmers in my constituency with the best

pork products in the world and they cannot get them to the biggest

market in the world because of Europe and we want to see that sort

of change taking place. In our industry, medical diagnostics, we

see protectionism right across Europe. We are supposed to have

pan-European legislation but we don't have pan-European legislation.

We get a directive coming to each one of the countries and each

country to implement the rules differently so as we go around

Europe we have got to change and the protectionism in France, Italy,

Spain, where our products can only be sold in pharmacies, here we can

sell them anywhere, so don't tell me that the common market is equal for

everybody, it is not. With the greatest respect you appear to be

out of step with the business community. A recent survey found 81%

would vote for the EU -- would vote to stay in the EU. That was a 60

people out of 60,000 in Northern Ireland. If you take that as a

representative figure that is absolute nonsense. Even companies

that do not export are still bound by every rule in the European Union

is no they are not selling to them. We have the best fishing harbours

potentially in the world and who takes it? Spain. We should claim

that harbours back and sell it ourselves. Leaving the EU is not

going to improve any of the problems that you are raising. Really? Since

the UK has been involved in the EU they have made a tremendous changes.

They have made changes over the period. We joined and paid a huge

amount and we were a mess with the fisheries and agriculture policy and

over the years Britain has had a voice in changing that. I had the

point you made about Norway, you quite often hear Switzerland

mentioned, they're both trade within the EU and they both have to abide

by the rules of the EU and they both have to abide by the labour laws of

the EU. What would it mean for you? You run hotels and public houses

across Northern Ireland in a big business, what impact would Brexit

have on your operation? Well, probably to start with very little

because all of the people that are from outside Northern Ireland, who

work for me presumably would be allowed to stay but going forward

any complications there are two travel and orders would obviously

have a detrimental effect on the tourism industry and we have a very

vibrant tourism industry in Ireland. Every business complains about red

tape. I was in a factory the other day... Australia, Canada and the

United States have more regulation than we have. It is just a nonsense

that people throw up about red tape and regulations. You know that is

not true! We are one of the least regulated countries in Europe. It is

certainly not true in the case of the UK -- the US. The regulation we

come up against in the US is much less than the regulation here. The

specific regulation for our industry, as I mentioned earlier,

the 27 all different. We register one product with the FTA we can go

50 states. A lot of people watching this I

suspect will be scratching their heads because they hear what purport

to be facts from both sides of the debate and you can understand people

frankly not knowing what they are doing at the moment, four months out

from the boat. It is quite simple. In business you want certainty and

stability. You wouldn't put yourself into a known situation unless you

had scoped it pretty well. There are all kinds of things that you might

get money back and create new trade deals but they are or might send no

certainty. What we have is the devil we know. It definitely needs to

change and the need to get in there and Cameron needs to negotiate and

our government needs to negotiate. They have failed totally. There are

now a number of EU states who will back Britain in reform. Ian, your

party is campaigning to leave but your party leader made the point

that she can understand why members of your party will want to stay. I

recognise that and there is going to be individual views on this. I am

probably fairly close to most of the people around this table tonight and

we'll have distinct views on that and I think that reflects Northern

Ireland. It does, and it gives us plenty to talk about in the next

four months. Now, voters across the Republic

will be heading to the polling stations tomorrow for an election

that could fundamentally Pundits have been talking up

all kinds of possible coalition outcomes over the course

of the campaign. Earlier this week, the leaders

of the four main parties So, our plan is to create 200,000

jobs by 2020, reduce taxes, employ more people and use the benefits of

that to create further employment in the public service. Except, of

course, that many people have not felt the recovery. You were one of

the full-time drivers on that Fianna Fail bus that drove this country

over a cliff. Your premise is wrong. We had a banking enquiry that did

not come to this conclusion. We are going to roll back all of those

miserable little mean spirited cuts that make life so miserable for

people. We are going to end prescription charges and make sure

that people who go to a indeed do not have to pay and make sure that

people who go to GPs do not have to pay full it. The workers have a

little bit more money in terms of their take-home pay and they are

going to have more confidence in being able to spend and we will

actually get more than that back in terms of growth and in terms of jobs

in the economy. The three-week campaign has now

ended, and to get an idea of how it's all gone, I'm joined

from Dublin by Stephen Collins, the Political Editor

of the Irish Times A short sharp campaign that has not

gone as many people expected. It has not gone the way the government

expected. They call the election and expected they will increase support.

That has not happened to 29-macro. They have held their own but not put

on the extra support it needs to be back with the majority while the

Labour Party has trundled along -- Fianna Fail. They are just short of

what is required. The big hope on the government side is that there

will be a surge. They are stressing stability and taking a risk if you

do not vote for the government parties. Fianna Fail, they have had

a good campaign. They were almost wiped out in the last election but

Michael Martin has done well. Not so well in the last debate, but Fianna

Fail will make gains. Sinn Fein have slipped back. They always drop back

from their poll ratings as the election approaches, this time it

has been more rapid than expected. Gerry Adams has not

performed well in the debates and has been bad on figures and the

economy and has been hit with issues about the past of the IRA. The

Labour leader has not done well. Her record in government has come in for

criticism and she only performed in the last debate. Mixed reviews for

the parties, but it is wide open as we come up to voting tomorrow. It is

an intriguing situation. All kinds of possible Coalition scenarios seem

to be in the mix at the moment. All sorts of options have been talked

about. The most obvious one is that the Chamber of Commerce Labour

government will return. That is one option.

-- Fine Gael. Fianna Fail could go into government with Fine Gael but

that has been rejected by both parties because senior people in

both parties say privately that if they go in together Sinn Fein will

be the opposition and they will take over in five years' time. I do not

think that will happen but the parties may have to come to an

arrangement and I would not be surprised if Fine Gael and Labour do

not have the numbers and Fianna Fail might agree for a period to support

a Fine Gael minority government on certain conditions and they will

have to decide what they are. We could be into an uncertain scenario

and I think it is that possibility of uncertainty that might cause a

last-minute swing back to the government parties and they are

hoping that what will happen will be like the UK election last year when

the polls showed the Tories and Labour neck and neck but when it

came to voting, the Tories pulled ahead. We will have to wait and we

will know on Saturday how it pans out. That is all intriguing.

Everything you said is fascinating, what is interesting is that could be

a rump of smaller parties and independents and depending how that

goes back and make for interesting times. That is the other big issue.

I did not talk about the independents. The expectation before

the election was called was that this number would drop rapidly as

people focused on who his was good for the government but according to

the polls it has not. I think we are set for a record number of

independence, we have of riding of smaller parties, some of them are

hard left and some are straightforward independence, some

are more Conservative and independent, we have a whole range

of things and in Kerry we have the remarkable family, Jackie was a TD

for years and was succeeded by his son at the last election but his

brother is now running as his running mate and there is an

expectation that they will take two seat and a loser could be the Sinn

Fein candidate and that is another problem that they have, they are

competing with the smaller parties and independents and they seem to

BET then to the protest vote that Sinn Fein was relying on. We will

leave it there. And let's hear what tonight's

commentators make of Dawn Purvis and Chris

Donnelly are here. Welcome to you both. Let us talk

about the Brexit debate. You both take differing views on that

subject. You have not made your mind up, you are leaning towards the

leave camp. There was more confusion than anything else tonight and more

questions. I think part of the whole debate that has started around

Brexit is not clear. I think that the more I listen to politicians who

are wavering about their own decisions and not being clear and

not giving clear instructions to their voters is unhelpful. I suppose

some of the stuff that I listen to there from David Dobbin was more

convincing than listening to Irwin Armstrong and Ian Paisley. I am

still not convinced to leave or stay in, I am not convinced by either

camp. One of the interesting features of this, if you look at who

is standing in the corners, it is a rematch of the Good Friday

Agreement. You have all of nationalist Ireland, cheered on by

all the parties in the south on one side and the British Government and

the liberal centre here, the Alliance Party and if we listen to

what Mike Nesbitt and Danny Kinahan say, it looks like the UUP will also

go for the option of staying which will leave the DUP and Jim Allister.

That has left us, we have nervousness within the DUP because

that puts them against certain groups in this society, we saw them

represented today, the farming community and the business

community, who the DUP would traditionally have a strong

affiliation with, both of those groups will vote overwhelmingly to

stay, because it is too much of a leap into the unknown. It is hard to

separate fact from opinion. I'm hearing people say that the EU has

been a failure. They are not spelling out how it has been a

failure. I hear people saying that Northern Ireland will benefit more

from being outside the EU but it is all hypothetical. Tell me how

Northern Ireland benefits from being in the EU and tell me what the

change will be if we leave. None of that is coming across in any of the

debates or discussions. I think the politicians taking a stance need to

be interrogated on what view they have and how they are directing

their voters. I did not hear any of that. There is a lot of speculation,

we know David Cameron is coming, do you think he will swing the debate?

Not here. We listen to her own political parties. David Cameron was

aligning himself with BST OP and Sinn Fein, I think the Ulster

Unionist and we heard Mike Nesbitt say that he was going to wait on the

Prime Minister coming here, in the background he is trying to get a

uniform voice within the Austrians party because he sees an opportunity

there for them to court are ground. -- UUP. What do you make of how that

are shaping up? Interesting for me is the selection convention for Sinn

Fein playing out in public, something he would not have seen

long ago, also interesting that Michelle has given the interview

representing the constituency. There is a risk for Sinn Fein. That is an

intriguing situation. Do join me for a special election

results edition of Sunday Politics, That's on Sunday morning,

starting at 11 o'clock on BBC One. And we'll be expecting some sharply

dressed politicos to join us now that David Cameron has

thrown down the gauntlet. The Speaker is well aware of the

dress code and how rigorous I am about ensuring that applies to all

members. We had to take him out and get a tie and then he wore that

bloody jacket for about six years!