12/05/2016 The View

The Ulster Unionists will be the first party of opposition

at the Assembly in the modern Stormont era.

Tonight on The View, I'll be asking the five main parties

how that decision changes things, and if the SDLP might

So the will-he, won't-he guessing game is over.

Mike Nesbitt revealed his plans to the Assembly today,

when he announced his party won't be taking a seat

We have decided unanimously to firm the first opposition of this

Northern Ireland Assembly. I'll be talking to the five main

parties about the new dynamic that's Also tonight, why are fewer

and fewer nationalists coming out to cast their votes

at election time? Are Sinn Fein and the SDLP fishing

for votes in the same shallow pond? If it was a one-off, parties would

get ignored, but now it is a pattern. There is a lot of

disillusion. And making a welcome return

to Commentators' Corner, it's the professors,

Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford. This afternoon's sitting

of the Assembly was always going to be a carefully

choreographed event, as MLAs signed the roll and watched

as the Speaker and the First and Deputy First Ministers

were officially appointed. What wasn't on the agenda,

however, was a battle cry from Mike Nesbitt

as he announced he was leading the Ulster Unionists

into opposition. We'll ask the newly elected

Ulster Unionist MLA Steve Aiken what's behind the move,

and hear reaction from the other But first, here's how

Mike Nesbitt informed Where they will not have our support

is at the executive table, because the Ulster Unionists MLA group have

decided unanimously to form the first official opposition at this

Northern Ireland Assembly. This is a big and bold move to bring a better

and a more normal democracy to the people of Northern Ireland. Let

battle commence. And joining me, along

with the Ulster Unionists' Steve Aiken, is the

SDLP's Claire Hanna. Also here are the DUP's

Paul Givan and the Alliance And in our Foyle studio

is Sinn Fein's Declan Kearney. You're all akin to the programme.

Steve Aiken, why make the choice to go into opposition has such an early

stage in the discussion? It was turning into a very long wish list,

there wasn't any detail in there. You would think that after nine

years of DUP Government, there would be more information. As we looked at

it more closely, we realised we would not get any information on it

until the autumn or Christmas. Your leader said he'd decide

at the end of the two-week discussion on a new Programme

for Government, whether to go into Government or opposition,

but he's made the decision It doesn't make sense. No, that if

you have a look at what was there, it won't make a difference whether

it is two weeks or four months, there will still be nothing

substantial there. The best thing to do would be to make the decision

now. David Ford says Mike Nesbitt

was grand-standing today. I don't think Mike Nesbitt was

grandstanding at all. We discussed it at length and decided together

that having seen what was in the platform for Government and looking

at the programme ahead, it was the best thing to do. So you didn't have

any confidence in your own negotiating skills? You didn't think

your team to get a better deal after two weeks. What does that say about

the Ulster Unionists impression of themselves? No, it's as we look at

it and realised we weren't good to get anywhere. I don't think anybody

from the other parties looking at it will get anywhere either. So you

took the document at face value. You weren't prepared to put the hard

work to try to change it. That is the point, you walked away. But

there is nothing that will be changed in it. You don't know that.

There are over 35 separate elements in it. It goes from discussions

about improving literacy or improving this or that, there is no

detail in it at all. That will not change. I know what it was like

working in Whitehall. I know what proper programmes look like and that

this doesn't look like it. So it wasn't worth putting the effort in

to try and make it better. Mike said he wanted to be Education

Minister. You said you wanted to be education

minister and wanted to make a difference. After a couple of days,

you were out. We were not going to be education Minister. So why did

Mike Nesbitt honey he was? If you look at the position the DUP were

in, we weren't going to be in a position to take the post at all. So

you give up on that also. No, we looked very carefully at it. When

you look at the detail that was in the Programme for Government and

look at what we were trying to do and what we have had over the last

nine years, it was very, very weak and we need to have something much

more substantial than that. Quite honestly, we don't think anything

will change. We will hear from some of your critics tonight. They have

said that this was more about your failure to deliver a decent

electoral result than anything else. Our electoral results were

disappointing in some areas, but we have 16 MLAs, everything is status

quo and that is one of the problems. Sinn Fein DUP will be back in

Government and we won't see any changes. The economy will not

improve, the health service won't come at the education system is

getting worse. The whole issues with manufacturing and industry that we

are going into at the moment, none of these will improve. We wouldn't

be able to influence that when we are in Government. The best way to

do that would be to be in opposition. So it is a hopeless

situation for Northern Ireland? If you are not going to put the work in

to make it better, you will sit on the sidelines and criticise and we

are all doomed. No, I'm not saying that. We are going to be an

effective opposition and hopefully we will have the Alliance with us as

well, and the others, to hold Sinn Fein DUP to account. That has never

happened before. I think it is a great development and it shows that

democracy is beginning to work in Northern Ireland. That is the first

public pitcher get the SDLP into opposition. Are you going to go for

the bait? We will set out our stall before the election and we said that

we would negotiate on the Programme for Government and that is what we

will do. It is a shocking documents. We will

be constructive, we will not walk off the job on the first day of

trying to improve their document. It will be the guiding framework for

Northern Ireland for the next five years, and whether we are in a

position of driving at or in a position to hold it to account, we

want it to be a better document. It doesn't mention in any way

universities, childcare, agriculture. It doesn't mention the

past, victims, a lot of things that were ignored in previous

negotiations. We will see negotiations through, like we always

have, for the people that voted brass and it didn't, because this

will be what the game against the next five years. You have been

bounced, clear, decisive leadership from Mike Nesbitt. We are not go in

to be guided by the new cycles or make Nesbitt. That is a decision for

him. We don't understand why he hasn't, when there is a gaping hole

in the what the executive are doing, we can say that we attempted to Bill

in those issues. How could you expect Mike Nesbitt

to sign up to a draft framework that we're led to believe won't be nailed

down until December this year? He can see the detail, the small

print of a document that he would have to put his name to now. Mike

Nesbitt knows that this was a two week process, we will get the

overarching framework, and then the specific detail of this we will want

to seek consultation of the public on and this will dovetail into the

Budget cycle. We are already started an the current financial year. You

need to have a an the current financial year. You

do that, which is the very criticism that make Nesbitt had about the

Programme for Government originally. We are actually doing something that

he wanted to be carried out, but now he is criticising it. During the

election and the last couple of days, this discussion over the

Programme for Government document would take two weeks, the

negotiations would take two weeks. Interesting that there were some

similarities in your manifestos, but they would be a two week discussion

period. That is now searching for seven months, effectively. No, this

has always been the plan. Mike doesn't do detail. Does he just not

understand it? I would say, yes. You didn't know during the election

whether he was going to be in Government or opposition and I think

the results demonstrated that that kind of leadership was being given

to the community and people didn't know what to believe in him, but

they put their trust in the DUP. Nobody is going to say, vote for me,

I'm going into opposition. That is exactly what Mike Nesbitt said, not

that. Our message was very clear. The Ulster Unionists' message was

not. Today is about creating a smoke screen to cover up what was a

disastrous election result for the Ulster Unionists. Or it is a

considerable political Government to completely wrong foot the DUP and

that is why you are crossing over, because he didn't see it coming. I

think that is very generous, to think that he has that kind of

strategic thinking. This was the worst election result for a van in

its history. Even Mike's own expectations were high. He wanted to

be in Government but he couldn't carry his own party. He has made it

very clear and Steve Aiken has, it is not about we run in the election,

it's about saying that the Programme for Government isn't going to be

considerably well nailed down for me to be able to back it at this stage,

and therefore, the correct option is to go into opposition to hold

yourselves into account. That's what he is saying, and some say he would

say that after the kind of election he just had. This is an opportunity

for the DUP. We will gain an additional department that allows us

a greater opportunity to deliver the infrastructure around health,

childcare, all the things we took to the election, received a massive

endorsement for. We beat the Ulster Unionist Party... We have heard

this. Let me just finish on this point. The opposition is something

that the DUP created. It was denied to the Assembly by the Ulster

Unionist Party in 1998. We use John McCallister's Bill to create the

opposition. That is one interpretation. I think maybe John

McCallister would take a very different view. How do you interpret

his decision? I think it was about taking the headlines, but tomorrow

morning you had to wake up and ask what is next. He went into the

election touting the importance of this two week period, and he has

surrendered at day one. From our point of view, what is on the table

will not be good enough on the basis of moving forward, but we have two

weeks to talk to the other parties and improve it. But Steve Aiken says

it is not worth your while because you won't get any improvement. There

is no chance of Alliance going into the agreement without an

improvement. So you would not sign up to this draft? Not at this

particular point in time. Alliance doesn't qualify for it. Nothing

should be assumed or presumed. But you still could choose, because if

you had been offered a position in the executive, you could choose to

accept it or not. That point might not be realised.

But at least we will try to make it work. We will not give up. We have a

mandate from the population of Northern Ireland. We have to at

least try and make a judgment. If the judgment is we're better off

outside, in terms of delivering our agenda then that is the conclusion

we will reach. Very quickly, are you suggesting that the negotiations

would go on beyond two weeks? It is important we can package this. The

programme has to be agreed by the Assembly. That has to be a public

consultation. We have to have a budget strategy and economic

strategy, all that is ahead of us. This period are loads of to have an

agreement or framework to make sure people know where they are going. We

are not they yet with this current document. The process will have to

go on beyond that to beat period. Anyone who believes otherwise is

being naive. Let us bring in someone else. Mark McGuinness described the

movement today as... It was a failure in leadership, we had an

agreed and -- an election. We now have an opportunity to ensure that

the French tart agreement translates into a new start for politics either

in the North. -- fresh start. That is the basis upon which Sinn Fein

fought the last election, ensuring we have a more effective government

and delivery that is what all of -- citizens asked for us as we

campaigned recently. So what we saw today was an attempt by a failed

political leadership to try and stampede other parties into the

negative political space of opposition when those parties have

been given a mandate for government. John O'Dowd said at the weekend if

you cannot sign up truly, you should go into opposition and that is what

Mike Nesbitt has done. So if you believe John O'Dowd, this was a

perfectly reasonable strategy. We should Colin White it is, Mike

Nesbitt and the leadership never intended to go into government. --

call it what it is. They simply use the framework as a fig leaf for June

what they always intended to do. That is because of their bad

election may have hired and the internal divisions within the Ulster

Unionist Party. The real political question is whether the negative

situation is going to force the hand of the SDLP and Amy Adams and

dragged them into opposition along with them. Let us be clear on this

point, these institutions need to be used as a ball work against

austerity. They need to be used to grow investment in our economy. The

NICE to put our public services on a sustainable footing. The only place

to do that is from within government. Parties received a

mandate for government and if they step away from that responsibility,

they are going nowhere other than into negative opposition. The system

at Stormont Amy Adams for that to happen, that is perfectly legitimate

and democratic. Absolutely, that is their prerogative and is done on the

basis of a reasoned political position. But the Ulster Unionist

Party are trying for negative reasons to add staying. We need

political stability and our parties working together in a constructive

position to try and take our economy forward on behalf of the entire

area. This lets achieve what we can by

going into opposition. He talked about the platform for government

and what we were trying to do. Stephen was talking about we need

time to work this out, that would be fine except these parties have been

in government for nine years. Whatever -- what other government

would you be in a situation with when you would say let us take

another five months to sort this out after an election. We are small

party and we were squeezed every time... You're still a part of that.

We were squeezed and unable to do what we wanted. You were in there

for eight years. We still did not manage to achieve what we set out to

do. We were squeezed by the DUP... I am slightly baffled as to how you

think you can achieve more by being in opposition then you could achieve

if you were effective in government which was another option. Because we

are going to be able to hold a Sinn Fein, SDLP government to account.

Wicked not do previously when we were in government because we were

squeezed. We could not let our voice be heard. What do you make of the

point that Mike Nesbitt did not understand the process which was

about to unfold because there was always going to be a public

consultation on this framework document and economic strategies put

in place so you should not be surprised that whatever is agreed

will go into further consultation? Through years of government to say

we have been in government for nine years and now we're going to have a

new platform for government and we will take another five months to

sort it out with a public consultation. Where is the costing

and detailed analysis? Wears the normal thing you would actually seen

government in that plan? There is none of that there. So failure on

the part of the executives over the past nine years and the Ulster

Unionists have made a shrewd move to sidestep things? The Ulster

Unionists wherein that Executive for all of those years apart from six

months which was a cynical political ploy in the run-up to election.

People they how do that was. Having an opposition is something that my

party wanted to seek seated. Denied to us by the Ulster Unionists in

1998 and now that space will be filmed. That is part of our reform

agenda. The Ulster Unionists are now joining the ranks of those that are

in the corner to try and hold people to account but criticism is not

opposition. It has to come with solutions. Mike has walked away from

providing solutions today. We respect the mandate from the SDLP

and the Alliance Party. We will take things up with them over the next

few weeks. Ultimately it will be a decision for those two parties to

take and we will respect whatever decision they come to. What is your

thought on that? Do you think David is CEOP will be in government with

the DUP? Opposition can be constructive. It exists? Yes, it

does. The irony of the Sinn Fein position is that they did exactly

that, they walked out of the negotiations on the first day and

refused to engage with any programme for government in the south and also

I do not think it is correct to talk about this in the same week that the

chief constable is told us that the provisional IRA still exist. At the

moment the consultation document talks about being people happier,

yes we want that but we need something to respond to. The

Alliance Party referred to the Justice Ministry... That did not go

anywhere, we have to have something specific to hold the parties to. How

much more difficult would it be for Sinn Fein to be in opposition, sorry

in government only with the DUP? That has to be more of a challenge

to Republicans to be sitting simply with the DUP? Now, the bigger

picture is we have government in the north and a framework for government

which delivers effective change in society for the greater good. That

is the key objectives which needs to emerge from this process. I am just

saying how much more difficult would it be for Republicans to be sitting

in government with just the DUP? Republicans have a proven track

record in overcoming difficulties but the point is we need a form of

government based upon effective programme for government that we

guaranteed to continue the Democratic situation of the society

and grow investment in the local community... You are not and sing my

question. Does that have to be a five party coalition or a two party

coalition even if it is more uncomfortable for Republicans? It

would be much part -- better if all of the parties given a mandate for

government would take part in government but if they feel unable

to do that, then they will fulfil their political leadership, they

will step into the agenda set by the Ulster Unionist Party... Let me

finish. Very quickly. We need to build peace and stabilise politics

and entrench the Good Friday Agreement rather than repudiate it.

You have said that... If the logic was applied in the south, you would

be in government in the Republic of Ireland but you have refused to do

that... One rule for this open one roof of the North? I said if you

apply that logic of inclusion in government and applied that to the

size, you would have gone into government in the south and you did

not do that? Sinn Fein will be in government in the 26 counties but

our focus is to ensure stable government is delivered in the

North. It is quite clear that an number of the other representatives

in your studio have completely failed to understand the process

we're trying to develop year to ensure there is an effective, robust

and very democratic process... It is ironic that the UUP are walking away

from the process to develop and design a government essentially

followed by the SDLP... We have to leave it there. Thank you. Does this

turn on their head the agreement that was reached in 1998 with the

Good Friday Agreement? Is it necessary and desirable that all

five parties are in government? It does not. We will not be pressurised

by the DUP your Sinn Fein. We will take our own decisions based on what

is best for the Alliance Party and Northern Ireland which coincide. The

Good Friday Agreement has to involve -- evolve. It's about having an

alternative and providing proper criticism of government. We have

seen six months of the Ulster Unionists in opposition and they

failed to do that. I suspect there is a lot more talking to get out of

this. So much has happened over the past

week that the political parties have had little time to analyse

fully their performances But that hasn't stopped political

pundits reflecting on why the nationalist vote fell

by more than 5%. It's a pattern that's continued

from the last Westminister election, and it's provided much food

for thought for both But what does it tell us

about nationalist voters? And, if the trend continues,

how might it shape politics Enda McClafferty has

been finding out. It has been a week of quiet

reflection for politicians. They have been taking stock after an

election which brought little change. A few familiar faces were

cast aside and the seating arrangements at Stormont remain

largely the same. We did have some ripples of discontent but nothing to

trouble the big parties. Is there an undercurrent lurking beneath the

surface which has now started to bite? The overall national sport has

been declining. If it was a one-off, it could be ignored but it is

apartment and the Sinn Fein and the SDLP cannot ignore it. The

electorate is telling them something. The nationalist vote that

by 5% but that does not tell the full story. The SDLP vote dropped in

15 of the 18 constituencies but Sinn Fein saw the vote go down as well.

So why is the national sport continuing to fall? Are they just

stay at home are RIB opting to take their vote elsewhere? Nationals are

demanding more, there is a heightened level of expectation

which is not being satisfied. -- Nationalists. Sinn Fein SDLP have to

address this. They look tired and jaded, short on ideas. Sinn Fein

would say was a good election for them.

It was very clear that this time they were not going to get as many

seats as they plot and it would be a case of minimising the losses. And

that is what the party tried to do in West Belfast, but they failed to

stop people taking one of their five seats. Their vote fell by 11.5%. The

SDLP's. That also. Their combined vote dipped, this time costing the

SL DPE a seat. He has been waiting a long time to sing his victory song.

It has been many years since a victory and his method hasn't

changed. The highest levels of unemployment for any town on this

island is here. This manner members that battle well. He says that his

victory sends out a strong message. He didn't deliver the jobs, the

University, the roads. He told us that the last election that these

things were already delivered and Martin McGuinness has said that he

should have done. He never left Derry, he still living in Derry. I

think those issues were very pertinent and strong within the

city, particularly. And there was also a slight dip in the nationalist

vote in Tyrone. It was a strategy to pursue a different person who is,

and this was a man who paid the price. That's politics. Nobody

expects to have an elected role in politics for their whole life. And

still young and I think there a lot I want to achieve what about the

Sinn Fein vote overall? What is going wrong up there with Sinn Fein

and the electorate? Didn't think that anything is necessarily going

wrong. I think we would have had the same number of MLAs if we could have

secured that last seat. But percentage vote is down. That may

be, but the vote of other parties, all of the parties is down. We did

accept that we had a poor election. The SDLP is still chasing down a

blood bag which they know is still out there, but just can't reel in.

The party could count on a massive but when this woman was in, so why

do she think that so many boaters have deserted the SDLP? Might it be

that nationalists now I now satisfied with their lot? I think

there is a bit of that, but it's not just that. I believe, if you look at

the Good Friday Agreement, we had the largest nationalist turnout ever

in the 80s, and there was huge expectations at that time. We were

going to have these north and south bodies bringing the country

together, and nothing of that has happened. There hasn't even been

reconciliation in the north. There is a lot of disappointment and

disillusion and a lot are fed up with politics, because it's not seem

to deliver. The SDLP crisis is a fundamental one. They don't appear

to have a sense of identity that resonates with the nationalist

community. Their message is not one that connects, and because of that,

they are increasingly becoming irrelevant to neither nationalists.

Sinn Fein and the SDLP are facing a big challenge. That's because the

pool of seats in the Assembly next time round will be smaller. The

constituencies are dropping from six seats. That may well concentrate

minds, but it could also squeeze the nationalist vote further. On the

challenges that lie ahead for nationalism.

Let's hear what the Professors make of today's big

Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford are with me.

Did you expect Mike Nesbitt to jump so soon?

No, not today. I think he was wrong to stretch it out. That said,

parties who wish to go to official opposition have to make a decision

towards the end of June, so it was a limited decision. I think it is a

bit premature. I would have waited a few days. He could have waited until

at least the end of the week. Oh, I think he really cut the feet under

the others, without dynamic that is going on in the studio. They were

feeling that they had been pushed into a corner. Declan Kearney was

very negative about it, called it a negative political space and a lack

of leadership. Why? Do you think it was a smart move? Yes come he has as

a Leader of the Opposition. He has pushed them down a road and he is

basically saying, how can we campaign and say that the Government

we have is dysfunctional and yet we still want to be part of it. Does it

make life very uncomfortable for the DUP and Sinn Fein in particular? It

does, especially if the DUP and Alliance parties follow suit. On

that basis, they will have a third of the Assembly between them and

that would be a considerable batch within the chamber, no doubt, on

some issues supported in the corner, the new critics. But even the

imagery will be different because the Government will have to sit

together for some it is a very artificial thing that we have at the

moment. Do you seriously see them sitting side-by-side? They will have

to because they are the government and the dynamic is that this

artificial infighting is really shown up for what it is because they

are agreeing on policies and putting them forward together. The

opposition will be able to say that they have a different view and the

shadow opposition person will be there. I understand their fear about

being sidelined and being a relevant, but I think that if it

properly worked out, they will be able to make a completely different

dynamic in the Assembly. Do you think the seating arrangements would

change, or do you think the other parties would resist it. The optics

would be very interesting. It would change the atmosphere completely,

but I don't think they will. I think the SDLP might go into opposition

and the Alliance won't. That would be my view at the moment. But

whoever constitutes the opposition, they are going to need resources,

which they will get, they will need to make an articulate alternative

set of proposals on whatever the policy area is. They have also got

supply days every year, ten of them, and they can bring their own

business to the floor, to make an alternative case. So if they are

constructive, they can make a good thing. But they had been in the

executive, they had been sidelined and richly humiliated. If you think

of the teacher colleges, evidence was gathered and then simply because

of local issues, they were bounced. This is the temporary political

leadership to say, we want something completely different, and the

electorate have said they want to see something different, delivery.

If he did go into opposition, they would have to allocate the shadow

departments between them. That's it from The View

for this week. Join me for Sunday Politics

at 11:35, here on BBC One. Making predictions is, of course,

a dangerous business. We've had Gary Lineker's underpants

promise, Paddy Ashdown eating his chocolate hat,

and now it's the turn of a close friend of The View

to bite the bullet. And the mostly, someone said they

would sing in Clare Bayley got elected.

# I write my own stuff, some think it's guff

# So what if I made a prediction then

# Clare Bayley won the election # I am what I am #.

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