05/05/2016 The View

The voting is over, the boxes have been sealed and 108 Assembly

Tonight on The View we look back at an election campaign that pushed

social issues to the fore and we talk to some of the players

who've been involved in previous campaigns.

276 candidates are tonight awaiting the outcome

Fewer than half of them will make it to Stormont once

So has this really been a lack-lustre election as some

commentators have maintained or has the prominence of issues

like abortion and same-sex marriage meant politics here is changing?

I'll be asking veterans of previous elections for their assessment

Plus, what is it that motivates the fringe candidates

to plough their lonely furrows, despite having little

I'm doing this for the people. I care about this time. Very expensive

and I would say it is not made easy for you. Cuts in health and

education, for you. Cuts in health and

out there, anyone really care? And sharing their voting secrets

with us, Newton Emerson Hello. Some would say it has been a

campaign which hasn't caught fire. Over the last five weeks, the

politicians have been on their best behaviour, pounding the streets and

pressing the flesh in the hope of securing a members pass for storm.

The rider was about keeping Arlene Foster as First Minister. Flags and

parades barely got a mention as the focus shifted to social and moral

issues. Does that mean we are entering a period of more mature and

political debate? We will ask my guests in a moment but first, a

reminder of some of the issues which did get our politicians going. What

Arlene has is a five word plan, do not mention Peter Robinson. I have a

1-point plan, make it work. Unlike Mike Nesbitt, I remember the bad old

days of pushover unionism, and what it was like when we were making

concessions to the IRA. That we tell you what I'm going to do, I'm going

into government. Unlike the south, where they've refused to go into

government. What we saw was a clear pronouncement that there was a

pro-life position in Northern Ireland. There needs to be

compassion. It was not in the public interest to prosecute a young woman

who found herself in a difficult situation but when it comes to

dealing with sexual crime, we need legislation that supports those

women who find themselves in a very difficult situation. Do they think

it is acceptable that a young person like me cannot find a party that's

worth voting for? You will ever get a perfect fit. But get involved,

change the party that is the best fit to be a better fit. What you are

focused on is making sure we are the largest party. We are putting our...

I'm sorry, I asked you... I asked you what of the other party became

the biggest party? It is never easy getting a straight answer,

especially during an election campaign. I'm joined by a former

director of configurations for the SDLP, and Mark Davenport and Seamus

close, a former is -- former Alliance MLA. You are all welcome to

the programme. Mark, you've been trying to build up a picture of

turnout, not completely scientific. What figures have been emerging so

far? It is utterly unscientific. The only thing I would say is thanks to

everyone on social media, Twitter, who have been sending me pictures of

the notices that have posted on the walls of polling stations which

gives you an idea of turnout at noon, five o'clock and nine o'clock.

This is based on some of those pictures that have been going

through. You have a sample of about 40 different boxes and given there

is more than 1380 boxes in total, that's a pretty small sample. But it

gives you a sense of what is going on. Not surprisingly, in the East of

Northern Ireland, the turnout seems to be much lower than in the West.

Some of the most boxes have been in places like North Down. One box had

only 36%. Another, 40%. In contrast, South Antrim always has a very high

record of voting and you're getting up to 59% and 70%. They will not

blind everyone with percentages. Overall, I would say slightly down

but maybe not as dramatically down as some of the predictions have

been. It may be that if there was a lacklustre campaign, it has been

buoyed on polling day by the good weather and people saying why not? I

would expect a slight decrease but not as dramatic as some pictures

have been. I would also say, in relation to the news that senior

electoral officials say they have been happy, I have been getting some

reports late this evening about some trouble in the galley area. We need

to hear from the police to confirm that but that has happened in the

past that when ballot boxes have been moved out, sometimes there have

been attacks on the police and I've been hearing some reports of that,

maybe some petrol bombs. We'll keep an eye on that. In the meantime,

Seamus, you've been that soldier. What is it like to watch the polls

close and begin the process of number crunching? Does that start

straightaway as far as the candidate 's concerns? It starts from before

straightaway. You are working on it constantly throughout the campaign.

Every night, you are coming back home, looking at what you're

expecting to get in different areas, analysing it with previous ones and

counting up watching entrance is our success. I think this is the bit

that the general public are not fully aware of. There are going to

be a number of people who, tonight, that is their last night in the job.

They are going to lose. They're not going to have income. That is the

cruel bit of politics. I think the general public have got to be aware

of that. You know, it's an ongoing process. The first few hours of the

boxes opening, and you look at where you are lying, and what preferences

you have got and he start doing your sums to see how high up the pecking

order you hope to be. And presumably that would be happening in

constituency offices and party headquarters, people will be trying

to glean as much as they can from the pictures we have been looking at

on Twitter. Any little crumb of information. You see, the last

seats, sometimes the fifth and sixth seed in a PR election, operate on

the finest of margins and it depends on what your pecking order is for

the first preference as to how long you may stay in, to what preferences

you may be to get throughout the rest of the. It is at times very

critical. The tally operation gets going tomorrow. In many cases, they

have to look to the paper to see on the other side of the paper because

normally the tail -- verification happens with the numbers down to see

if they can see where the ones are going. Tonight, looking at these

figures, there will be working out is an area that is traditionally

strong for us, other voters turning out in that area? At least those

numbers would give them an idea because they will know where those

ballot boxes. Some commentators have criticised the campaign for being a

bit lacklustre. But as far as spin doctors are concerned, and you are

regarded as a good spin doctor, if it is a low key campaign, is that in

fact what people like yourself wanted? To keep candidates out of

trouble as much as you possibly could. Does that make it a good

campaign from your perspective? In some instances, that is correct. The

more you can get through the campaign without any major hits, the

better. When I first started, someone described an election

campaign like flying an aeroplane. When you take off, it's perfectly

working but that time you land, the wings are falling off! What happens

now is because politicians and political parties who are so scared

to make a mistake that they don't want to be adventurous. We've seen

this at the time it when we talk about what makes a campaign dull and

lacklustre, the fact nobody has made a mistake. What makes a campaign

interesting is when someone makes a gaffe. I have to ask you then, in

all honesty, how would you have handled the Gerry Adams tweet, if

that had fallen onto your desk? There is a standard mechanism for

any form of crisis can locations and it is get your response out first,

get it yourself and get it out on your own terms. What happened with

the Sinn Fein incident was it happened overnight,

the Sinn Fein incident was it said it was followed up by a press

conference at lunchtime. The apology should have come immediately, rather

than constant updates of statements. A simple lesson there. They departed

from the agreed script. Obviously, different incidents are more serious

than others. If your first to hold your hands up, we are sorry, that's

better. John, in Liverpool, you been following the campaign closely. Is

it fair to say that the agenda this time round seemed to be different

from the north? No flags or parades, no huge skull of the constitutional

position. We didn't discuss welfare reform at all pretty much, as far as

I could tell. We talked about job creation, abortion, same-sex

marriage, who should get the First Minister 's job. Is that good or

bad? Yeah, I think the agenda was different. There was less of the

Orange versus Green in the actual debate, although in terms of cross

community transfer, it has been in single figures and I would expect a

low level of cross community transfers as per normal. The actual

agenda was different. I don't accept the orthodox view of most of the

foreign -- commentators that it was a dull campaign. I think it was

refreshing that there were debate about health, jobs, mental health

and other matters. In fact, I quite enjoyed the leaders debate. I even

watched it again on BBC Parliament last night which puts me in a

category of one! But they were feisty ex-Rangers at well. --

exchanges. It is to elections within one and it was significant that most

of the heat in the leaders debate really was between the DPP and UUP

locking horns early on with a sound bite from Nesbitt was up late in the

programme, to others having a go. It is to separate elections. In terms

of tonight, the news from Mark Davenport is encouraging. We

shouldn't beat ourselves up about turnout. It's been consistently

higher in Northern Ireland than Scotland, and discover Parliament

has far more powers. In 2003, a dark November day, 62% of the population

went out and voted for an assembly which didn't even exist at the time.

We shouldn't get too hung up about that. The big question is, who is

going to do well? I would expect some UUP gains. They are capable of

taking three seats in Antrim. I would also expect Sinn Fein to put

on a seat if anything, in tinsel predictions for the selection.

That's interesting to hear your thoughts. Maybe we can pick up on

that because there's a lot of speculation. I note Nicholas

Whiteley will be joining us in the next couple of days and he has been

running the numbers, making predictions as well. The D U P had a

high water mark back in 2011. They could use if you seats. The SDLP is

looking for seats but there are some dire predictions they could lose a

few. Sinn Fein as well, looking for the magic number of 30 to be able to

trigger a petition of concern. How do you see at shaping up? There has

been a lot of publicity about the whole notion of the First Minister,

Arlene Foster has put that centre stage. It's predicated domination of

Sinn Fein catching up the D. The thing at 2011, even though that was

good for the deed you pay, the idea they could slip from a 38 seat to 29

seat margin to lose that top place seems unlikely. Instead, we may see

a change in the scale of the difference but not necessarily the

pecking order. I think what is likely is Sinn Fein could make a few

advances and get possibly 30 seats on their own which is significant

for triggering a petition of concern. The sorts of places they

will be looking to make gains would be where Dolores Kelly has been

under a lot of pressure and they are trying to push Kathleen Seely

through. Doyle is an area where they would like to make a game at the STL

P's expense. That is where Sinn Fein was to expand. The deed UUP, there

are some places where they think they might be able to make gains,

for instance if they were fortunate in that way West Belfast breaks

down, maybe they could get a game there. Because of the division

between nationalists within the parties in West Tyrone, they

previously did have an extra seat there, could they get in there? I

think they would actually be glad if they were able to hold onto what

they got because they are under pressure. We have seen Mike Nesbitt

on a comeback trail in recent elections. I think Arlene Foster's

job is to hold him off. Column eastward's role is not to

sustain too much damage. There are as many as six potential losses for

the SDLP. The margins are so tight that the ball could bounce either

way. In the infancy of his leadership, he needs to come out of

this reasonably unscathed. I think what Colin can point to as a success

is that he has infused the party membership and the party hard-core.

He stood toe to toe with the likes of Martin McGuinness and threw

punches back. It has really got them engaged again. They have gone

through with new confidence. It might be a bit like Jurgen Klopp, as

a football manager, a season too soon. Is it good to have Naomi Long

back on the bus? She has charisma and charm and she doesn't do. Is.

She delivers a message very strongly. She will be an assistant.

I see her presence in East Belfast swinging that third seat to the

alliance, I can see them making a game in this particular election.

All in all, it is going to be around the margins. The DUP might lose a

couple of seats and the SDLP might lose a seat. Seamus, what about the

smaller parties? Could the independence be wiped out? Naughty

corner, I think the Diouf have got a seat. Ukip. They are strong. They

could get it. Depending on what the voters for. I think Claire Sugden in

East Londonderry, very much around the margins there. If she gets

sufficient first preferences to get about 10%, she could still hold onto

the seat. Steven Agnew of the Green Party said he would be disappointed

not to get three seats. John McCallister is desperate to hold on

in Southdown. I don't see him holding on in Southdown. There is a

historical difficulty with Jim Wells. Strangely, in Northern

Ireland, we don't vote for independence. The battles were

within unionism and within nationalism. The independence do get

squeezed. The strong voice of Jim McAllister has been a lone

opposition voice and it helps him. There is one new face on the block.

That is Jerry Carroll. People before profit. Let's just go back to John

in Liverpool. Let's go back to the DUP campaign strategy to hang it all

on the leader. Was it right or was it a mistake? I think it was strong.

She can appeal right across the spectrum. The DUP had to raise its

own game further. They fought a fantastic election in 2011. To get

38 with the number of candidates that they put up was some

performance. Arlene Foster does offer something fresh. The DUP is

still a small party. They don't have many activists to get the vote out.

That makes their performance even more remarkable. The parties with

the larger memberships can get their vote out more easily. I do expect

UUP gains but I think they would have gained more if DUP leader not

been Arlene Foster. Sometimes I worry when I hear about red lines

and not bloodlines. I think the smaller parties, the Ulster Unionist

Party is the SDLP made a mistake not going in by stating, we are going

into opposition. Only seven ministries are to be allocated and

they are going to be left at the back with choices. We don't know

what the threshold for government is, say it is around seven M L a s

they could fall below the threshold. The big battle between Martin

McGuinness and Colin eastward? How will that shape up? I think that

could go to SDLP. I think Sinn Fein will stay with two seats. That would

mean one of their outgoing MLAs would have lost a

seat. If they stay with two and SDLP go down to two, they will see it as

a victory anyway. Thanks very much to you all.

Well, of course, the election isn't all about the big parties.

Spare a thought for the growing band of independent candidates -

the ones who've faced a lonely battle, against the odds,

in the hope they can join the big boys and girls

Gareth Gordon has been to meet three of them.

So you want to be an MLA but you have to fund it out of your own

pocket. Why would anyone want to bother? Cory French has been

involved in local politics in Strabane since he was 16. He has now

reached the grand old age of 21. I don't want to go into the assembly

and make promises I can't keep. I can promise you something now. That

is what is wrong. People don't care enough about each other. It is dog

eat dog. I haven't made a promise in the election. It is like me trying

to go to the assembly and not keep my promise. It would make me look

bad. It would look as though I told you live is. I'm just saying I can

do my best and that is all we really say. When he's not pulling aside

potential voters, he is pulling pints in a local pub. Have you

decided who to vote for in the election? Now, come on. I thought

that was your favourite man. I decided because I was just

that was your favourite man. I the way things were.

that was your favourite man. I I'm hoping I can go on with a

that was your favourite man. I victory, not for me, I'm doing this

for the people of this town. Strabane is a town that

for the people of this town. tight-knit. The people are

excellent. We all look out for each other. I'll only doing it for them.

I am not just trying to get votes, I care about this town and there is

not enough happening in this town to make it better. So, I'm doing what I

can now to try and help. Get young people back to work. Meet Colin

Burns the man pledging to bring common-sense to politics in north

Belfast. We are different. We don't want to be the same old politics. We

are not flying under any flag and we are here to assist the whole

community. A former driving instructor, you has found the whole

process a test. Very difficult, very expensive. It is not made easy for

you. The information is not out there to assist you. I have found

some departments very helpful, I have found other quangos unhelpful.

You are called common-sense NI but it is not on the ballot paper. I am

officially recognised by the election as being a party but they

are a week late in recognising that. I thought it was going to happen. I

am allowed to use the symbol, I am allowed to use the name on the

election leaflet but it won't be on the ballot papers because they are

weak late in telling me that I can. How much is it costing you? All I

will say is that it is thousands. While Earth would you want to do

that? Because I believe in North Al fast. But if they don't believe in

you it is a pointless gesture. Sometimes you have to go with your

heart. Unlike Tom Burns, this man has gone for election before. No

room for is a boast -- insubordination, I am the one for

the nation. Vote Christie. I've got great ideas. Deficit reduction

without austerity. I'm not going to say here what it is but I will be

saying in a few days. He says the Independent's task is not an easy

one. It's a huge challenge but it is a way to get issues out there. You

know that you are up against it because you are not going to get in.

You have to be innovative in your approach because you haven't got a

permanent seat. It is interesting to see how well the independent Barr

are doing down south but they are not here. It is because our

democracy doesn't work. And he is no fan of the First Minister. I had to

go into a studio, rent a studio, I can't afford to hire anyone so you

have to do anything yourself. It is expensive. Also, it is draining.

It's not very easy. People say, why are you putting yourself through it?

You have too. I feel I have two. Maybe this is my last chance. That

said, you know. Life moves on. We will see tomorrow how many of those

lone voices have the X factor. So, that's the story here -

but we'd be very self-absorbed to believe we're the only place

which went to the polls today. Scotland and Wales are also

electing their new Assemblies, the English local council elections

are taking place and in London Joining me now from London

is The Herald's Westminster Kate, you've been following

the London Mayoral race closely. It's fair to say, I think,

that it's been a pretty It has. It has been really nasty. It

has been dogged for weeks with accusations of racism that the

Conservative Zac Goldsmith and even the Prime Minister have been accused

of dog whistling to voters over the fact that the Labour candidate is a

Muslim. In the last week, it's been embroiled in the anti-Semitism row

that has engulfed labour as well. It has been a very nasty campaign. It

is a very important campaign because it is not just a race to be the

London mayor, it is really going to feed into the ongoing civil war

between Labour MPs and Jeremy Corbyn who think he is making the party an

unelectable party. They are going to have a very bad night to night and

London could be the only silver lining that they have. The position

of London mayor has even more power over file and power than it had even

recently. As it made the race import and for the Tory party as well? It

has made it very important for the Conservatives but it has actually

been a very difficult and naughty race for them. The candidate that

they picked at the start of the campaign was very popular as an MP

and a noted a college is to but it blew up in their face with the

problem of what they were going to do about airport expansion in the

south-east. They had two, of actively, but it on hold until the

election campaign is over and it looks as though it might have been

accompanied pointless gesture if Mr Goldsmith doesn't win the election.

If he does take a beating in the poll, will it have implications in

the wider power struggle that we hear so much about in the

Conservative Party? It is very interesting. The outgoing London

mayor is, of course, Boris Johnson and you would have thought that an

outgoing Tory mayor might face questions if the Tories get a

hammering in the race to succeed him. Two things have probably

happened that could help Boris in this one. First of all, the tone

that this campaign is taken, you cannot imagine the jovial, cheeky

chappie that is Boris Johnson indulging in that kind of rhetoric.

Secondly, there has been a timing issue and most people would argue

that Boris Johnson has spent more time talking about the European

Union in the last couple of weeks than he has about who should be the

next Mayor of London. Do you think we can expect to see

the continuation of the electoral march of the SNP? Is it as cut and

dried as that? Yes is the short answer. The SNP are definitely going

to win this evening. The question then becomes by how much do they win

by? The Scottish parliament was actually set up to try to prevent

any party getting a majority. Ironically, you might think now,

because of fears of the dominance of the Labour Party, and so the SNP

face a bit of a task to try and get their second majority. But it's

crucial for them because they really need another majority. Were they

ever to have another independence referendum, they would expect a vote

in the parliament to give it legitimacy and they face lots of

problems if they didn't get that. Just a quick final word about what

happens to the other parties in Scotland because some are suggesting

that the Tories could become the second-largest party ahead of

Labour, which seems rather odd given what is happening south of the

border. It is true. The Tories very possibly could come second. It would

impart the more likely because Labour have undertaken them. What we

have found in this campaign is the Labour brand is becoming toxic. We

did a poll where we asked voters what they thought of the flagship

policy that Labour is offering in this election and they quite liked

it but when they were told it was a Labour policy, they liked it an

awful lot less. Fascinating, isn't it? Thank you very much. I'm sure

you will be staying up all night. Let's hear what our commentators

think of what we've been talking about tonight - freed

as they now are from Newton Emerson and Cathy

Gormley-Heenan are with me. It has been a little bit lacklustre

but there's a reason that people won't talk about and that is the

power-sharing arrangements that we have in place, which stops electoral

volatility. We are never going to have circumstances whereby you have

an SNP landslide like we've witnessed in Scotland or the

collapse of the Lib Dems. That's never going to happen in Northern

Ireland because of the way the power-sharing arrangement works.

What we have here are two contests, a contest to be the largest party

within your ethnic nationalist bloc, so the largest party within unionism

and the largest party within nationalism. And the second contest,

to be the largest party overall. That in effect has changed the way

the electoral campaigns have had to be conducted here. But there is

never been an election which has come to breaking that kind of

thinking as this one. This has been a remarkably civilised and grown-up

campaign by Northern Ireland standards. The parties have tried to

bring real issues to the fore. There are social issues. There are changes

to how Stormont is going to work. We got economic issues coming. We have

two consider the real possibility that if this didn't excite the

electorate, that's because it's not sectarian enough. I disagree.

Regardless of whether a party says we are rather better for health,

unless they get the health Department, they cannot have change

in that area. But the DPP did raise the issue of taking action education

and under the new system, that becomes a real possibility. We are

going into a two-week negotiation for that. None of the parties so

that although they did bring the issue. It raises the other issue

about this sham fight between the DDP and Sinn Fein, where Arlene

Foster is saying don't vote for Martin McGuinness and then vote for

Mike Nesbitt, you've got to vote for me and my candidates. At the same

time, they are going to work together. It's pretty obvious to

everyone, they are going to be in the executive together running

Northern Ireland. It's disappointing they didn't take the opportunity to

sell that point. Everyone knows it. The opportunity of a new First

Minister was a chance to set a new tone but it hasn't been taken. That

has put off people. They don't have to hold hands but they could have

been honest with the electorate that they are working on a joint

programme for government. The manifesto is essentially mash and

they could say we will professionally deal with each other.

Sinn Fein did that but the deed UUP didn't. Was it ever a possibility?

No, because Sinn Fein were playing the kind of bigger card here by

saying, we will have joint First Minister starters, knowing full well

they already have that status. This was a smoke screen and a red herring

to an extent because the reality is, the triple lock system that has put

in place with the St Andrews agreement in 2007 meant it doesn't

matter who the largest party is in Northern Ireland, there will always

be protections in place for the second-largest party and the second

ethnic block, so to speak. I know journalists have mocked this sham

fight. I've heard from the deed UUP that it did get a response on the

doorsteps. -- DUP. If we see this as a form of negative campaigning, it

tends not to win the electorate over. It makes it more memorable.

People weren't necessarily go out and vote for Arlene, so the GU P

become the largest party. Let's put on our soothsayers hats here and see

what the future might hold. What do you think the situation is good to

look like and 48 stand? The indication is that the turnout has

the same as before, which would indicate that the result will be

roughly about the same as before. More or less. The main issue to

watch for here is Alliance. Can Alliance make it over the threshold

of roughly 11 and malaise? And deserve a place in the executive.

It's going to get given one but if that is the only seat it has, it

looks a bit shaky. I am most interested in what happens with the

smaller parties. Now we have royal assent given to the establishment of

an official opposition, that means party is not in government get to

hold very influential committee chair positions like the chair of

the Public Accounts Committee. If the SDLP and the UUP decide to sign

up to the executive, that means that party is not in government that will

be drawn from a very small cohort, maybe the Greens, will hold very

influential positions in some of the most important select committees.

That would be good for democracy, would it? Absolutely. I think the

more likely option is you will get the big parties, the five big

parties dropping out of the executive and becoming an unwilling

opposition. We will see. We will discover the answers to all these

fascinating questions in the not too distant future. Thanks very much.

That's it from The View for this week.

Join me tomorrow at three o'clock here on BBC One for our extensive

coverage as the results start to roll in.

Until then, here are a few lighter moments from the campaign

All in the name of electing Northern

I am always looking to the coalition... Jesus, Mary and Joseph!

You've got seven at the moment? Would you like to rephrase that?

Eight. OK. It's not the end of the discussion of the pundits must

decide who one... To appeal to the grey vote...

Come on! Come on! That's a good doggie! Where did you go? Where did

you go? Are you really... We strongly recommend you transfer to

the candidate and transfer on. I am more determined to bring about a

reconciled people in Ireland but also a much fairer and more

prosperous society as well. You are a people person that you do have a

short fuse, don't you? Is that when I'm supposed to thank you? Yes. --

thump you.