02/03/2017 The View

The ballot boxes are being stored ahead of tomorrow morning's count

and candidates can look forward to a quiet night with their feet up.

But for many of them, it'll be a nervous night.

They know they're at the mercy of the voters and for some of them,

it could turn out to be the end of the road.

On the eve of the count, we'll hear the thoughts

of two former MLAs - Sinn Fein's Daithi McKay

Plus commentators Fionnuala O'Connor and Alex Kane, and our political

Also tonight, we sent our crack correspondent off, fully-equipped,

to get some expert predictions ahead of tomorrow's results.

I have my whiteboard, my pens and now we just need some pundits. Mike

Nesbitt has been under great pressure. Michelle O'Neill's first

election, only weeks after she assumed position as the leader of

Sinn Fein. And he can make you believe he can

read your mind or hover in mid-air, but what does David Meade make

of the parties' attempts to persuade He'll be live in the studio

a little later to tell us... Now, as we know, voting

and punditry goes hand in hand. An election wouldn't be the same

without a few predictions along the way from political commentators

and party activists alike. Last night, as the election

campaign drew to a close, the team at the Slugger O'Toole

website organised an event for people to consider

what tomorrow's results So we despatched Stephen Walker

to take the political temperature... elections is never easy. After all,

academics, pollsters and journalists have come unstuck throughout the

years, trying to work out the outcome of this election will be

difficult because Stormont is moving from 108 MLAs 290. It will not stop

us tonight. I have my pens, my whiteboard and now we some pundits.

Political observers and activists gather to assess Stormont's runners

and riders inside the appropriately named. Horse. How do our panel says

the battle? Last time, Arlene Foster's party won 38 seats with

Mike Nesbitt securing 16. The constituency profiles that we have

looked at, we have the DUP on 32. That is a drop, but all of the big

four will experience a drop, the Ulster Unionists are on ten, a

disaster for Mike Nesbitt. As future could be in doubt as he came back

without result. He could surprise us. Anything around 12 or 13 he be

OK, but anything near ten orbital and he could be in serious trouble.

Is that opening share? In terms of what the figures will look like a

post-election, what is your best guess? It is likely we will end up

with the DUP sitting somewhere around 31 and the Ulster Unionist

Party around 11. If we are surprised, if people do come out and

actually decide to have a go at the DUP and change their allegiance,

that could be two or three hour. Do you think the DUP will be happy with

that? If they can stay above 31 they will be happy, as they go below

that, it will look like a bad result because they have lost that kind of

overall control. What then of Sinn Fein and the SDLP. Sinn Fein secures

20 seats last time with the SDLP on 12. Quest -- Chris Donnelly was once

a Sinn Fein candidate and is now a political commentator. Sinn Fein are

going into this quite positive, I think they are looking across a

number of constituencies where they do manage to get their vote out,

they could get 24 or 25 seats will stop any more conservative since I

would go for 24. In a similar sense, the SDLP will also believe they have

had a good campaign. I would settle for 12 seats on a good day for them.

But it could go 25, 11 412. What do others think, Brendan used to work

for the SDLP and the bees that Sinn Fein will get 24 and the SDLP will

have 11 MLAs. I think Sinn Fein would be satisfied with that. It is

Michelle O'Neill's first election, a new matter of weeks after assuming

position as the leader. She would have to be happy with that. Poll

position with the nationalism. SDLP? Anywhere near 12 seats or avoiding a

huge loss, they would be happy, even coming back with 11 they would be

happy. We would be very satisfied with 12 as well. What then of the

smaller parties? One observer thinks little will change. The boil has

gone off of these parties. People for profit, and TUV also a little

stale. The Greens are fighting tooth and nail for East Belfast. Not much

going on for the minor parties and it is Adi Jaber for Alliance. Status

quo and no big movements. Back inside the Dark Horse and the talk

is about who are Stormont's racing certainties? For now the betting is

over, tomorrow the winners and losers will be revealed.

So, the campaign which Arlene Foster predicted would be "brutal"

is in the past and we wait to hear the public's judgment.

Tonight we're going to take a bit of time to reflect on the highs

and lows of the campaign trail and we're going to engage in a bit

of crystal-ball gazing, and if we can't settle on precisely

what's likely to happen over the next couple of days,

at least we can try to work out what we should be looking for.

With me around the table to do just that are two former politicians

with plenty of experience of pre-count nerves -

I'm also joined by two experienced election watchers -

commentators Fionnuala O'Connor and Alex Kane, and by our political

The polls closed 40 minutes ago and you've been looking

at information that's been coming in all night about turnout

What kind of picture are you building up?

Firstly, anecdotally, the election officials have said that their staff

have had a pretty busiest time. They think this is definitely up on the

turn-up of last May which was under 55%. Pretty brisk right across the

board. Now, in terms of variation, we have seen as high as nearly 80%

in areas like Michelle O'Neill's home patch of mid-Ulster. In Arlene

Foster's home patch also good turnout. On the low end, we have

seen figures more in the kind of mid-to high 40s in the areas of

Lagan Valley, for example. It is hard to know what to make of this.

What we are basing these estimates on our notices posted up in the

entrances to polling stations with the 9pm turnout figures... You might

get one box that represents one area that is not necessarily representing

the constituency as whole. But it has been suggested to me that

possibly the turn-up has been maybe healthier in nationalist areas than

unionist once, possibly in Unionist middle-class areas than in

working-class areas as well. This is early days and it is hard to

extrapolate anything from this and other boxes are opened tomorrow. You

have averages, 55% was the figure last time, there are a lot of things

to happen and knowing the turn-up for sure tomorrow. One thing I would

like to see, I would like to thank people on social media who are

sending in pictures. I have lots of them, lots of sheets. More than my

poor mathematical brain can cope with! But certainly what there seems

to be is great interest with some of our broadcaster during the course of

the campaign and there has been interest in sending these figures

and that will be reflected in the interest generally in the voting. It

is very early days, does that mean that there will be some parties,

some individuals in a little bit more of a sweat tonight than others?

Possibly. What do you bite into higher turn-up? During the course of

the campaign, Colum Eastwood made the argument with me that FT

Connacht could reach the mid-60s, the figure we saw for the EU

referendum, that could be good news for the parties of the centre. This

goes back to the days when David Campbell talked about getting out

those garden centre Unionists who did not normally vote. -- David

Trimble. Have voting trends shifted? I am not sure. Others have said

extremes have come out on either side. Beginner woman really analyse

that once those ballot papers have been taken out of the boxes. One of

the many reasons why the moral is so interesting. We will come to

Fionnuala O'Connor and Alex Kane shortly. But to Daithi McKay and

David McIlveen who have experience of cold nights and what that can

mean. David McIlveen firstly, you washed your seat in May, you have

been critical of your readers sense. How do you think, listening to what

Mark has said, the DUP will do when the votes are counted for real? We

will know tomorrow. What we have this last chance of living. The last

chance for the DUP. In that there were things going on behind the

scenes which had the potential and the reason to make people a little

bit less happy about voting but proven on the basis that there was

no one else to vote for. However, to hold together for ten months and

then put the party in an extremely difficult position because they were

fighting an election that they did not want to fight, they were

fighting an election that they could not afford to fight and therefore, I

think, that will be reflected in the results tomorrow. She had a very

strong election last time around. Not too many commentators thought

she would go back with a number of seats she returned with. She held

firm on Peter Robinson's success the time before. What is the cut-off

point for Arlene Foster in terms of what would denote success and what

would suggest failure? If they lose the petition of concern numbers, 40

below, they are in real trouble. But the problem is that probably for the

first time in the history of unionism in Northern Ireland, there

really was an election fought on their not being a great alternative

one way or another. So I think even of the party does hold its ground

tomorrow, it will not be on the basis of a resounding endorsement,

because it think it is there to say that when you look at the two

leaders of the Unionist parties, compared to elections of the pass

which you will remember broadcasting on, which were full of excitement

and charisma, if you look at the two Unionist leaders, there is about as

much charisma any piece of coffee! We must be honest about that. When

the results that are common tomorrow, it will be much on the

basis of who I did not want to vote for, rather than who I get. That is

a remarkable life and I suspect that will be quoted over the next 24, 48

hours. You are still, let us be clear, technically a member of the

DUP and you have said that your party leader has as much charisma as

a piece of tofu. Do you expect to be in the party for much longer? That

will not be my decision, Mark. I am currently a free citizen and I am

enjoying life on the other side as I know that Daithi McKay is as well.

That allows us to say what we want to say. Is there some sour grapes,

do you have an axe to grind? I was inundated with opportunities ten

months ago if I wanted to display sour grapes and I intentionally kept

my head down, I decided to give all of my former colleagues the chance

to get on with the job that they were employed to do, but I think, to

be fair, if someone is cynical enough to think that that is the

reason behind it, then whether I stay silent for ten months or ten

years, they will say the same thing. The bottom line is that it does not

take away my right to have an opinion and certainly, I am quite

happy to freely share that. OK, Daithi McKay, to resigned

dramatically last August after allegations that you coached Jamie

Bryson who is giving evidence to the Finance Committee at Stormont and

you left the party. Where are you with Sinn Fein at the moment? I am

not in Sinn Fein any more. Would you describe yourself as a Sinn Fein

supporter? Well, I am a republican. I can't get progressive republican.

Certainly, I will support Sinn Fein when they are going in the right

direction but also be constructively critical when I believe they are

going in the wrong direction. I think that is a space that needs to

be felt, not only by myself but by others. I think that Sinn Fein are

any good position the moment and that is because of Arlene Foster,

essentially. What Arlene Foster has done by her inexperience and her

actions as First Minister, which has been to motivate and to reawaken a

dominant republican and nationalist vote. When you listened to Mark

Devenport talk about turn-up, what do you extrapolate from that? Is

that the nationalist and republican vote potentially coming up? In terms

of my own vote in my own constituency I am hearing about big

gains, big improvements. So that tells me that the republican core

vote is out at this election and they have been motivate -- motivated

by the negativity and attacks that if they see on themselves by Arlene

Foster by way of our language and our approach to Martin McGuinness.

Arlene Foster perhaps thought it was the right strategy and it may have

been to motivate the DUP vote but she has also got at the republicans

as well. Just to clarify one other thing, the issue that led to your

departure remains under investigation and you were

questioned by the police one month ago in a fire that we know has been

sent to the Public Prosecution Service. That remains a live issue.

That is correct, I cannot comment on that. That will play out in due

course. Can I ask you about your constituency, some of your

supporters and those closer to you in North Antrim were furious with

how Sinn Fein handled your departure and one of them stood as an

independent today. If you were living in North Antrim, how would

you have voted today? That is between me and the ballot box. Would

you have backed either of the candidates? I left the party on good

terms last year. I spoke to members of the Sinn Fein camp and to the

SDLP and others and I think that there is no point in adding to any

of the animosity that exists. This happened in political parties, all

political parties and hopefully things will calm down. I will not

add to any of the animosity that exists. You will not tell me who you

voted for in Foyle, where I believe you now live fish two no. Did Sinn

Fein do well? One point out to make is the fact that republicans and

Nationalists need to work together. One reason that the DUP will not do

well perhaps tomorrow is that Sinn Fein voters transverse down the line

to make sure that the DUP did not reach the 36.

Did you vote North Antrim today? I don't. Robin is a friend. I am not

going to go into the details of who I voted but I endorsed Robin. I have

worked closely with him in the Assembly. But I transferred to

Unionists. You did give him number one. You can assume that. Thank you,

Paul. I want to hear from our commentators. I have to ask you

about that line. It did leap out at us, David saying that in the two

Unionist leaders, there is as much charisma as there is in a piece of

tofu, which I would imagine there's not a lot. Tofu is horrible. Do not

get into this. He is right. David makes a good point in the campaign.

It was from the Unionist point of view the dull campaign, particularly

in Arlene Foster's case, because three months ago she said unionism

or stronger than it had been for 20 years, unionism was back. Now we are

told unionism is weak. Gerry Adams is the bogeyman. What happened was

that all she gave unionism was fair, bogeyman. That was her lying at the

manifesto launch, that is not how I do business. She did not do any

business at all. The business of a party reader is to say, here is a

vision that is bigger than just this party, that embraces everyone in

Northern Ireland. She did none of that. She pointed the finger and

said, be afraid. There may be some indication it is going to backfire.

That magic number, even with a high turnout, the DUP will remain the

largest party and be just over 30 but that is not an overall Unionist

majority in the Assembly Arlene Foster has a big problem. There has

been a lot of cynicism in the air. What TUV into that alongside -- what

do you think that it looks like more people have come out to vote than

voted last May. It does. I was also struck at the difference between

Daithi and David. Daithi has called to be bitter and critical and he has

not done that, he made the good point that Sinn Fein transfers all

the way down to stop the DUP. I am intrigued by the idea of people

coming out to vote in Sinn Fein areas who have not come out for some

time. They have come out it is motivated by Arlene Foster's cack

handedness and arrogance, and the anger, Michelle O'Neill has not had

to do much to encourage that. It has not mattered much how she has played

the campaign, but she has played it pretty well. Mark said he had spoken

to somebody that said if it was a high turnout both ends of the

political spectrum have turned out in force, and we know that in and

around Michelle O'Neill's home turf the turnout has been high, as it has

been an underlying Arlene Foster's. I do not know what both ends of the

spectrum means that this may means that if Republican or Unionist votes

that have not come out for some time come out, it is possibly coming out

of disgust for unionism, and its handling of power-sharing, as what

never became our shilling, what Sinn Fein does next, that is a problem

for them, how they handle that the negotiations. That will be something

we have to do which it looks like this may be. That is the challenge

because we want to have a word about what will happen next. Crunching the

numbers will be fascinating. Then we get into the serious business of

politics. We have a three-week window in which there will be an

attempt to get started up and running again. People are not

terribly optimistic that that will happen and then we are in the

uncharted waters I refer to in the introduction. Absolutely. The

situation will be the 90 MLAs will get their offices at the start of

next week, coincidental with that we will probably have the start of

talks with the British Government, the Secretary of State pressing the

parties to try to do some kind of a deal. They will have to have their

first meeting by not Monday of next week, but Monday the following week,

that'll be a meeting where by the label signed the book, and two weeks

on from that they should elect the First Minister and Deputy First

Minister, but we know that Michelle O'Neill has said she will not share

power with Arlene Foster until this inquiry has no got under way into

the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal is completed. A minimum of six

months, it could be one year before that is completed, that seems to be

an insuperable problem, unless the DUP has a new reader puts in a

caretaker or whatever. Assuming that none of that happens and the three

weeks run say theoretically we are back into another election. But I

was talking to somebody to be who said do not expect necessarily that

the Secretary of State will move quite as quickly in those

circumstances as he did previously when he called this election. He was

quick out of the blocks and said, let us get on with it and clear the

air and have the election. I think it is possible that they may try to

play it a little bit longer after that period of time runs out, which

is at the end of March, in order to see somehow along the way they can

get some kind of pro-dash-mac some kind of progress. A previous

judgment said he had to act only in a reasonable period of time. What

are you hearing from former colleagues in DUP in Westminster,

technically you are still in the party, what are they saying about

Arlene Foster's leadership and her future of that figure dips below the

30 that you refer to in their opening comments. What I am hearing,

I have DUP in my DNA, Ian Paisley was an inspiration to my life, I

still look on him with immense respect, my concern at the minute is

the direction in which the party is going. I think that is sheared with

many of my colleagues and former colleagues within the party. This is

an issue with leadership. This is an issue with how decisions are made,

the decision making process has been taken away from the elected

representatives, that has to change. That has to be built upon into the

future to make sure that we do not find ourselves in a position where

advisers are wielding more power than those that are elected that the

ballot box and that is where I fear we find ourselves at the moment.

Will she still be leader on Monday? I do not think so. I have been on

the record for some time. I believe that unfortunately she is being

viewed as an electoral liability. There is not the same upbeat feeling

within the ranks of the party. Not the same as what there was when

Peter Robinson was in charge. Michelle O'Neill is still in her

honeymoon period, she is not permitted beautifully drawn at this

time. If she has a bad election it cannot be her fault, she has a good

election she can take credit for that, I think Sinn Fein could

increase the number of seats, but the challenge will be negotiations,

they should not go back into Government to quickly, they have to

deliver on an Irish act. Thank you for joining us. Three of you will

stay with us and we will talk again soon.

Well, the relatively brief election campaign has put the political

parties under pressure to get their particular

One of the most reliable formats, of course,

All of the main parties produced one, though

the Greens - appropriately - recycled theirs from last year

There now follows a party political broadcast. Just last me you gave my

party a mandate to meet Northern Ireland and I was honoured to become

your First Minister. This is the type of positive change that the

Assembly can help to deliver. This election is important. Your vote

will determine whether Northern Ireland moves forward or back. I am

not surprised. It sounds like Northern Ireland needs changing. You

are absolutely right. And it has to start at Stormont. Stand with Sinn

Fein. On March the 2nd vote Sinn Fein. Institutions we once believed

this table are now at risk. No more than ever we need change that can

Unite us rather than divide us. Less than one year ago the Green Party's

election broadcast was about storm wasting your money. We are going to

show it to you again because they are still wasting your money. But

you need to grasp this opportunity. You need to vote. On March the 2nd

vote Alliance Party. Things do not have to stay stuck as they are, on

the 2nd of March you will give your verdict. We cannot go on like this.

It is time to drain Stormont swamp. Jim Allister getting his message

across in no uncertain terms there. But just how effective are our

political parties at communicating We've been joined now

by David Meade - entertainer, motivational speaker and mentalist

extraordinaire - fresh from the stage

of the MAC in Belfast. Was there any talk

about politics tonight? Absolutely. The last ten minutes of

my sure looked specifically at RHI, we have a fun and interactive but

that sums that story up in a way that people may not expect. I did a

straw poll and only 25% admitted that they did not vote. A straw poll

but nonetheless big engagement in my room tonight. That is interesting.

What we wanted to tease out is how successful our politicians are at

communicating their messages. You have looked at party election

broadcast. Are they good at it or not? The last two years has seen a

step change. No they are taking the psychology of communication and the

political space more seriously than in the past. 3-5 years ago party

political broadcasts were predictable but in the last while we

have seen a real change. When you look at some of those party election

broadcast, you can see what Arlene Foster is trying to do, she is at a

children's birthday party, pretty landscapes of Belfast, the message

of Green the swamp, equality, whatever, but are at their

subliminal messages as well? The grievous one is in Sinn Fein's, the

use or smelly people in jobs as -- the ordinarily people behaving in a

certain way. Whenever we get into the discussion... When we see party

members wearing blue, does that been anything? Some of the things that

diagnosis in the leadership debate, no votes are one, but some votes are

lost in debates like that. Anybody speaking like this in the middle of

a sentence, stats that sentence and has no idea how it is ending, they

are hoping they will find the words halfway through. What about the

concept of negative electioneering? A lot of people did see, we do not

want to dirty our hands with that. It is fascinating. People campaign

about negative electioneering. It is the only thing that works. We love

bad news. It is delicious and adhesive to us. It is four times

more likely to be remembered and acted upon. Particularly from me

look at the DUP campaign emphasises Gerry Adams, it is called the

contrast principle, start with something potentially negative to a

lot of their electorate, then follow up with a soft and gentle message,

stick with what you know, that is one of the most proven psychological

principles, whether at the ballot box or anywhere else.

In sophisticated and how we do politics, the idea that we have got

better of it actually rings true? No. I think we are much too

sophisticated to believe in stuff like colours that people were. Body

bang, we have always known that. But we are better at tactical voting. So

the electorate is more sophisticated than politicians? They always were.

It is not being a sophisticated situation that they have found

themselves in! Is that fair, Alex Kane? David is correct, you can

teach them all of the tracks, but when they come up against people

like you and Stephen Nolan, and I have found that with all

politicians, the mud of the party, the minute they are at a difficult

question or point to something, they start to fall and then you just take

them apart. And at the end of that interview got back stop flattering

and! They could just answer the question. The create problems by

avoiding answering the question. The only information you give to the

interviewer is what you want them together. You have failed in the

interview if you are the interviewee and you start to give away things

that you do not want to give away. David is correct, you can do it with

ties and everything but unless you can handle that question, you are

stopped. I think we should have got David in to do some of the political

interviews, could have happened to tie some of them and the politicians

could have told us the truth. I will not look into his eyes just in case!

Don't worry, Mark, I do not work without invite! Which is better,

strong message, bad delivery or a weak message with the good

deliberate? Good delivery is more important. Look at Donald Trump,

repetition. We are seeing that time and again. Repetition is one thing

that drives votes more than anything. OK. Fascinating stuff.

Join me tomorrow from 1:30pm, here on BBC One, for full coverage

of the results as they come in throughout the day.

I'll be here with Mark and Tara and our team of reporters at every

For now, though, we leave you with a look back at some

of the lighter moments of what has been a short, sharp and sometimes

I do not think we will go to this one. I have been struck down with

the called, also called man flu. Very bad. Do you have a name for

this? If you feed a crocodile, it will come back and look for more.

Just by surprise we have met my doppelgangers. James, great to meet

him. He is going back to Northern Ireland, I will remain in London.

It was not disappointing, it was reaffirming. I always thought that

man flu was an invented disease, I have to tell you.

CHEERING . Where the current or former

politician, not from your own party do you most admire and why? Giving

you a hard time. I should get you to sort it out.