28/11/2013 The View

Tonight, as another loyalist protest is planned for Belfast this

Saturday, how big an impact will it have on the city's economy and on

Northern Ireland's image abroad? I'm joined live by the Minister

responsible for attracting both trade and tourists to Northern

Ireland, Arlene Foster. Later in the programme we'll hear from the PUP's

Johnny Harvey who's supporting the protest. What next for

Johnny Harvey who's supporting the will have details of a confidential

report which says, unless the party changes, their prospects look bleak.

I'll have reaction from the Foyle MLA Colum Eastwood to that exclusive

report from Stephen Walker. And joining us this week in

Commentators' Corner are the political journalist Liam Clarke and

the author Susan McKay. And you can, of course, follow the programme on

Twitter. That's @BBCtheview. It's traditionally the busiest

shopping weekend in Belfast. But will a loyalist protest planned for

Saturday put people off coming into the city centre? New figures

released today reveal visitor numbers from the Republic for the

first six months of the year are down 44% on last year. How concerned

should we be, then, that further protests might cause damage to

Belfast traders and to the brand image of Northern Ireland? Arlene

Foster is the Executive image of Northern Ireland? Arlene

with responsibility for trade and tourism and she's with me now.

Thanks very much indeed for joining us on the programme tonight. Should

Saturday's planned protest go ahead as planned? We have always been very

clear about any protests which take place that those who protest have a

right to protest but they also have responsibilities and the first

Minister Peter Robinson was very clear this week when he said that

those who are organising the protest should make a clear statement and

say to those who view it as a time to involve themselves in violence,

to stay away and make it a peaceful protest. It that's the case, it

shouldn't cause disruption to sell fast and those people who want to

come in and shop on Saturday. He said they should minimise disruption

to business in the city centre. He also said if people didn't follow

the parades commission determination on Saturday, they would be

disruption. And economic disruption would follow. Do you agree with him?

Yes, it's a danger. Nothing inevitable about that happening. We

don't assume that's going to happen and indeed, we shouldn't be

fatalistic about it. A lot of people have been talking up the prospect of

there being violence and disruption in the city but that is not

inevitable. What I'm saying very clearly tonight is we must ensure

that we take all the correct procedures to make sure that if

there is to be processed -- to be a protest on Saturday, it's peaceful.

People are concerned about it and plan to stay away. It is anecdotal

evidence. I know people from my plan to stay away. It is anecdotal

county who have said they planned to come up on Saturday and are

continuing to plan to come up on Saturday, so it's not putting people

off in the numbers others would have us believe. Would be better to have

a demonstration outside normal trading hours? That's what is with

people say, do it a day of the week when we're not trying to make money

and when it's not one of the busiest shopping days. In the last two times

I have appeared in the assembly, during question time, I have been

asked about the possibility of this protest. I said on that occasion,

and I repeated tonight, I would have preferred it those who are

organising protests, adding gauged with traders and tried to listen to

their concerns and understand where they're coming from so when they

were planning their protest, it is taken into account. Are you saying

politics trumps economics? Not at all. The economics will continue. We

shouldn't talk up this protest. I was out and about in Belfast the

night before I came onto this programme and I saw people going

about their shopping and in restaurants enjoying themselves and

Belfast is a big enough city to cope with the protest, peaceful protest,

and that has to be the way. A peaceful protest for the those who

want to come along and enjoy the city as they intend to do. There is

no protest tonight. There's no reason why that shouldn't be the

case on Saturday as well. You said it should be a peaceful protest.

Does it also have to be lawful protest because the Parades'

Commission is the legal authority on this matter. Should police arrest

protestors if they break the terms of the legal determination? People

should respect the law. It is the lawful body that makes the Parades'

Commission determinations and they should respect that. As well as

respecting the Parades' Commission, they should respect people who want

to be in the city centre during that time, the busiest Saturday before

Christmas, when a lot of traders make a lot of money, sometimes

people are said to me they made a third of their money in the run-up

to Christmas and therefore it is a critical time for traders and I do

make the plea of they do listen to the traders and understand where

they're coming from. You are a lawyer. Is it right that these

should arrest people if they break the terms of the Parades' Commission

ruling? Often in these cases, there won't be arrests on the day but

video footage will be reviewed afterwards and followed up. It's a

big risk to those individuals, isn't it? Anybody who breaks the law

realises they would get a criminal record and that some they will carry

around with them for the rest of their lives. It will have an impact

in respect of their ability to get a job, and to work in Northern Ireland

and they should recognise that. This isn't just about what happened on

Saturday. We are turning the corner in Northern Ireland. We are coming

out of recession and women look at the number of jobs created here,

over the past year, 5000 jobs up to June this year have been created --

when we look at. I was pleased to make the announcement of 165 new

jobs in Belfast on Monday. We are turning the corner. Although some

people may want to focus on this Saturday, and I can understand why,

Northern Ireland is open for business and we are creating jobs

and ringing in investment. It is right you want to get that message

out. We have the US consulate warning Americans to be extra

vigilant when travelling to Northern Ireland and to stay clear of

demonstrations and exercise caution around parades and protests. That's

not what you want to hear, is it? But doesn't help me but when I

checked, it's the lowest possible advice of the US consul general it

gives out. It is not some think we should get excited about. It wasn't

there last week but when I contacted the Consulate general they were

embarrassed about the whole situation because when I go to the

USA, and I recognise that some of those cities are quite dangerous, I

look at Chicago, there's Billy 400 murders which has taken place there

this year, -- and there is nearly 400 murders. Belfast is one of the

safest places in the UK. They didn't realise it would cause a media storm

in Northern Ireland for the that's what they are embarrassed about. The

point is, it's a warning to Americans. It has been blown out of

all proportion in Northern Ireland and that sometimes helps -- happens.

How concerned are you that today's tourism figures indicate that RoI

overnight holiday visits to NI are down by 44% for the first six months

of this year on the year before? That is a fact. It has been issued

today. You must concerned? I welcome the tourism figures overall because,

of course, we have seen a 6% rise in terms of visitors overall coming

into Northern Ireland. A huge increase in the number of visitors

coming from Great Britain. And we have seen the amount which is been

spent in Northern Ireland over the past six months, going up by 16%, so

I welcome the figures overall. There is an issue in relation to the

Republic of Ireland. We had a huge push for 2012 last, and we're

looking at the Republic of Ireland market and will make sure the

tourist board, who was in Dublin last week, pushing again in relation

to those perceptions of safety. It's all about perception. The NITB

confirmed today consumer research shows protests and disturbances is

the number one barrier to visiting Northern Ireland. It's the

perceptions of safety and security and that's why we have to be careful

not to talk up something as if it is inevitable because I don't accept it

is inevitable. I don't accept we should be fatalistic about what's

going to happen on Saturday. We should look at the past aspects of

Northern Ireland and I'm pleased to see we're turning a corner for sub

thanks very much for joining is on the programme tonight. How likely is

it that the prospect of a major protest will put people off

travelling into Belfast city centre this weekend? We went to Ballymena

to get the view on the street there. If you let everything put you off,

you would go nowhere. I don't think it would. Why would it put you off?

You don't want the hassle when doing your shopping. It has put me off

with a fly protest. It is kind of hard to get up there and travel.

With young children. Why would it put you off? I would just be scared.

People rushing about. I'm going up on Saturday. Did you know that a big

protest on Saturday? Would it put you off? No, it is I love shopping.

I don't care. Possibly it might do. It depends if it's going to get

rough or anything like that. It might do. Hopefully, is it right in

the centre? Like the one on Saturday, but I will stay away.

Linzi Lima asking the questions there in Ballymena. With me now is

Johnny Harvey from the Progressive Unionist Party. Why is your party so

enthusiastically supporting a protest which is only the building

will only damage Belfast on the best years shopping days before

Christmas? I think it's wrong to assume this is going to damage

Belfast. I think the words of adaptive first Minister earlier on

in the week is what has ramped up the tensions around this protest.

The protest had been taking place in the city centre every Saturday

The protest had been taking place in the past year. One of which has had

trouble. You don't think it's damaging at all? It's damaging it's

been hyped up the way it is. The Deputy First Minister needs to look

at his word early on in the week. He needs to make an apology to the

people who are going to turn out in protest. They will do peacefully and

lawfully and he needs to make an apology for what he accused them of.

All he said was that, in his view, the EDF was organising the parade.

That's absolutely incorrect. It's absolutely wrong to say that. The

people have been protest in order, ordinary, decent people who have

genuine grievances and what we end up doing is speaking about this

Doomsday Prophecy that is all going to go wrong, and lead to trouble,

and we never deal with the issues. Who is organising it? It's strangely

mysterious. Not at all. There will be a name given to the police. Who

is the name? I don't know. You never asked. Not curious? Not really, I

know a group of people who have been proud testing for the last year have

been doing it around issues that we all care about. They want to do a

parade. And what about the business owners in the centre of Belfast who

are very concerned about the impact it will have on their trading on

Saturday throughout the day? Do you have any concern for them at all? I

don't dig about any impact on trade from the point of view from the

protest is. I think there would conduct themselves impeccably as I

have done for the past year for them they will continue to do that on

Saturday. What we are worried about is the hype would has been built up

around this and that falls squarely at the Deputy First Minister. It

will be a peaceful parade, you said. Absolutely. Will you be there

on Saturday? I will be there. Will you be clear of the city centre by

1230? I will be there supporting the protest and I will be there on the

ground to try and advise people that you need to stay within the law. The

last thing I want to see as more people ending up in jail. Just to be

clear, you will be encouraging people to move out of the centre of

Belfast by 12:30pm? I will be encouraging people to stay within

the law. Will you be making clear that if they do not do that they

will stand the possibility of being that if they do not do that they

arrested as Mac we have just heard from Arlene Foster about that. We

have not done anything else for the last year. We will continue to do

what we have done for the last year. We will encourage people to be

peaceful and lawful and that is how we will get our message across. Do

you accept it will have no impact on City Hall. That was a democratic

decision taken by councillors and if it is going to change, it is not

going to change because of protests? The first thing we need to think

about is not just the flag issue. This is endemic of a wider problem

within working class communities. We have had this problem within the

past year. None of the issues have been dealt with. They do not want to

deal with them. They just want to talk it up in their doomsday the sea

and discredit it. Your edition is it will happen, it will be peaceful and

lawful and you do not think there will be any trouble on Saturday as

back I do not think so and I think I'll fast is brave enough and big

enough to cope with peaceful protest. Will businessmen be able to

have their businesses? There will be a protest every Saturday but not on

this scale. Thank you for joining us.

The SDLP has been told it is resting on its laurels, it is too complacent

and too stuck in the past. The comments are contained in a

confidential report. It also states many of the nationalist voters they

have spoken to do not CBS DLP as a party of change or different is.

Instead, they see it as self-interested and conservative.

Once, the SDLP were the leading voice of northern nationalism. They

had faces who shaped the political landscape. When John Hume and Seamus

Mallon spoke, the establishment took notice. 1992 marked a high point for

the SDLP when at his third attempt, Joe Hendron took the West Belfast

seat from Gerry Adams. This marked a political triumph for the SDLP. But

the success in West Al fast was short lived and that the next

election Gerry Adams recaptured the seat. From that point on, things

started to change. In the 1997 general election, the SDLP out

polled Sinn Fein by around 60,000 votes. But at the last general

election in 2010, the tables were turned, with Sinn Fein out polled in

the SDLP by around the same number. In an attempt to improve their

fortunes, the SDLP has commissioned research among voters who do not

vote SDLP but are open to vote for the party. 50 people in five focus

groups were questioned in Derry, Antrim, Homer, Belfast and other

towns. The report was mainly negative. -- Omagh. Although the

party had good things to say on John Hume and the party's stance on

Syria, the report says positive comments were few and far between.

Some voters see the SDLP as middle-class time wasters

Some voters see the SDLP as doing enough around the flag

protests. The research also showed older voters thought the past hangs

heavy with Sinn Fein. Many voters saw Sinn Fein as strong and fighting

for them. It is the comparison with Sinn Fein that will give the SDLP

their biggest concerns. Those questioned said they thought the

SDLP was a party of the past, while Sinn Fein was viewed as a party of

the future. The SDLP were perceived as middle-class, Sinn Fein, working

class. Some said the SDLP had no big figures any more. In turn, Sinn Fein

were viewed as having strong leaders fighting for us. The SDLP were seen

as not sure if they are Irish or British while Sinn Fein were viewed

as strongly Irish. And on policy differences between Sinn Fein and

the SDLP, the report states no group could identify any policy

differences. It seemed to be a party which is stuck in the past, that has

no clear sense of vision or a clearly articulated project with a

leadership that seems the rest -- arrest of dynamism and real policy

direction. The report contains other stark conclusions on the state of

the SDLP. It states many nationalist voters do not know who you are and

what you stand for any more. Another conclusions states many nationalist

voters do not CBS DLP as a party of change, but as a self interested

conservative force -- they do change, but as a self interested

see the SDLP as a party for change. Many voters see the party as resting

on its laurels and stuck in the past. The report says nationalist

voters want a reason to vote for the SDLP again. What does the party need

to do? This confidential report was completed last month. It makes a

series of recommendations. It says the party should build its profile

by supporting the leader Alasdair McDonnell. It said the party should

campaign on health issues and should deliver lunch messages on the areas

of flags and parades. It says more women and more younger people should

begin in positions of real authority in the party. There is also this

morning. No matter what the historical significance of the SDLP,

without doing anything different, future prospects look bleak. What

does something different mean? For a start, should the Esk DLP leave the

Executive and go into opposition? I think everything in this document

speaks very loudly and clearly to the idea that the SDLP should more

seriously consider going into opposition in Stormont. That would

speak volumes to a community and the potential electorate who is not

quite sure what the party stands for. It stands in opposition holding

the government of the data account scrutinising the work of government

on a day-to-day basis and offering an alternative government in

forthcoming elections. Next the apostle at European

forthcoming elections. Next the elections will be Alasdair

McDonnell's first test as party leader. Some people say he

desperately needs good results. Fire macro I am not sure that the current

leader is a man who is imaginative enough to plot a new direction and a

new agenda for the SDLP. If they do not make gains in May then I think

Alasdair McDonnell's time as leader of the party is probably over. As

bad as that? Yes, I do. In 2011 when Alasdair McDonnell campaigned for

the SDLP leadership, he said he was not going to watch the decline and

eventual disappearance of his party. This report makes it clear that

unless radical action is taken, the Esk DLP's future is booming -- the

SDLP's future is unclear. I said the report makes pretty serious

reading. This report was done among 50

people. It is about the SDLP asking questions and listening to people

who do not support us. We are prepared to take criticism and do

something about it. It is not easy reading but it is not something to

be getting depressed about. I think the SDLP is willing to listen to

people who do not support us. That is a good thing. It was research

commissioned by the SDLP for the SDLP will studies are voters who you

need to be attracting and it is pretty ears at the moment you are

not doing that -- it is pretty obvious. We know we have a huge

challenge to increase the SDLP vote. If there are perceptions that there

which I think are wrong then we have to challenge them. The talk about us

being a middle-class party is nonsense. Our activist base, our

supporters base and elected representatives come from all social

classes. You have to come to my constituency office and see the work

we do for people in most need. The SDLP is about representing

everybody. It is a broad-based party. The difficulty is that you

may believe that within the party. The difficulty is that you

and your core supporters may believe that but the people you need to be

attracting do not see it that way. They see you as a middle-class party

sitting on your laurels looking at the past. Even if what you say is

right, your problem is you are not communicating it. That is the case,

we have to address that. That is why we did this piece of research. It is

not the case we are conservative for sitting on our laurels. We are very

proud of our past. People of my generation were able to become fully

involved in the democratic life of Northern Ireland. We should be proud

of that. I am 30 years old. There are young activist coming through.

I'm very proud of all those people who are working very hard to change

the image of the SDLP. You say you have young activist who want to get

involved in front line politics, let's look at the departure of Carla

McDevitt. There was a perfect opportunity to replace him with a

young woman, Claire Hanna, 31 years old. What did you do? You'd chose a

51-year-old man of Fergal McKinney. We are a democratic party. Fergal is

a tremendous asset to the SDLP, as is Claire. I would be very hopeful

that she will be in the Assembly team before long. The point is you

say you're not middle-class all the party sitting on your laurels. When

you get the opportunity to do demonstrate that, you do not take

the opportunity. We do not demonstrate that, you do not take

these young people and people from working-class backgrounds, we need

good people. Claire is a very talented councillor and Fergal is

equally good. It is abrupt brain all those people into the party. Do not

think the appointment of a young woman would be very good for the

SDLP? This only tells you what you already know, to be honest. The

media keep telling people that we are middle-class party and an old

party. The reality is very different. You will see we have a

number of candidates under 30. If you look at Alex Attwood, a

relatively young candidate, I put a bet on with you now, he will win

that election. It is time we had someone who is fighting for the

people of someone who is fighting for the

if you would put a bet on Alasdair McDonnell being the party leader

after the elections next year. Rick Wilson said he does not think the

current leadership team have the drive and leadership to take the

party were needs to go. He thinks Alasdair McDonnell will be gone.

Would you put money on that? I would but money on us winning the seat,

increasing our number of councillors and Alistair leading us into the

next election after that. You have no concerns about the leadership

team? None whatsoever. Is that widely held? He has been elected as

the SDLP leader, he has been re-elected, he has our full

confidence. We will back him to the hilt. The SDLP as a party which

stays together in good times and we support the leadership. What about

you marking yourselves out as a party by moving into opposition?

Margaret Ritchie said if it was up to me, we would be in opposition by

Christmas. Did you hear her say that? I was in the hall. I do not

agree with that. We are a democratic party. We allow people to go up onto

platforms and say what they think. There is no place called opposition.

Yes DLP has been let it in a strange system to do a job -- the SDLP.

There is nothing in that report which criticises our ministers. I

think the public know very well that when the SDLP is in government we

deliver. I think we are going to continue to do that job.

deliver. I think we are going to McDevitt talking to me earlier --

Colum Eastwood talking to me earlier. Now we have a chat with our

commentators. What you think about this? Colum Eastwood did make a good

point that focus groups are about asking people what you are doing

wrong. They are going to appear negative. But the SDLP has hit a

fairly low point and stuck there. Steady as she goes is not an option

for them at the moment and there is a strong argument to do something

radical like going into opposition. radical like going into opposition.

Alasdair McDonnell had a target of 70 councillors next year. That will

be hard to reach and people will be disappointed if he doesn't do it. I

agree it's a focus group report so inevitably there will be a

predominance of negativity but it's very damaging and I think coming

hard on the heels of a very weak performance by the party leader at

the annual conference. It is particularly damaging. On the

question of Carmel, I felt for Colum Eastwood because the party don't

have a leg to stand on. That's the daughter. Sorry, Claire. Even though

it is Alistair MacDonald saw him daughter. Sorry, Claire. Even though

with no tears shed and then put in his favoured person in his place, it

just doesn't look like a party which is aware of the difficulties in the

way its perceived. He did say he was very sorry Colum Eastwood left.

Otherwise, what about the leadership now? Do you think he is safe? If he

doesn't do well next May, is the real trouble? In the Belfast

Telegraph, they did a survey of 50 delegates and he came out with 28

approval rating. Mike Nesbitt got 94 and Peter Robinson got 92. He is not

somebody who walks on water with the party. We can't afford to make

mistakes. One thing he does have going for him, there's no obvious

successor. Who wouldn't be? We need to talk to the other subject

tonight. The thoughts of Arlene Foster. What did you make of the

views they put forward? I think it's a very awkward position for Arlene

Foster but very striking the way the DUP was so vehement this time last

in the enunciation of the Parades' Commission. It's so mild-mannered

this weekend. Johnny Harvey's attitude seems to be don't worry

about it. What is the point in calling thousands of people onto the

streets if your not going to be noticed? Clearly, it's going to be

disruptive and put people off. Clearly, it's very bad coming hot on

the heels of the USA advice. Clearly, it's very bad coming hot on

been hyped up beyond where it should be. Do you accept that? It has been

hyped up because of what happened in September when they caused awful

trouble. It was the same organisers. This time they are saying, it's

brutality. That being said, Johnny Harvey seemed to want to give

himself an each way bet if things went wrong. We need to leave it

there. Thank you very much for talking to me. Those are the views

of our commentators. Before we go, let's hear the thoughts of the man

with the inside track on the Hill. What can ordinary people do about

the dissidents? We could try reasoning with them. But that's like

trying to get a pint at a DUP conference. I have a plan. If I

don't go and drink in every single part in Belfast between now and

Christmas, then the terrorist win. I don't want to, but every separate

defies the dissidents. But I'm going to go shopping on Saturday to defy

the flag wavers. The shops will be empty and I have braced myself.

Peter Robinson says people will be dignified and of course they will.

They will get hammered in a dignified fashion for the meanwhile,

the US consulate has warned Americans to stay away from

situations where there could be ugly confrontations. You look like an

idiot! Don't go up near the assembly. They are debating flags

today. That's it from The View for this week. Join us on twitter. Join

me for Sunday Politics at 11.35 here on BBC One. For now, though, bye

bye.