18/05/2016 The Wales Report


18/05/2016

With five weeks until the EU referendum, Huw learns what impact an in or out vote will have on farming in Wales. Plus the latest from the Senedd with Felicity Evans.


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A special edition of The Wales Report tonight -

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from Wales to Westminster and beyond.

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Here in London, the Queen opened a new session

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of Parliament against the ever-present backdrop

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And I am here at the Senedd, where Carwyn Jones was elected as the new

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First Minister amidst some robust, some might say unparliamentary,

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exchanges. Good evening ? welcome

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to The Wales Report. It's been a busy day in Cardiff Bay

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and here at Westminster, where the new session of Parliament

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was opened by the Queen, who set out the Conservative plans

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for the year ahead ? including that elusive Wales Bill,

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defining new powers We'll have more on that

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in a short while. And don't forget,

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you can join tonight s conversation on social media -

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the hashtag is thewalesreport. That Wales Bill will be a prime

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focus for the Senedd and the First Minister,

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so let s join Felicity Evans in Cardiff, where things

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have certainly moved Yes, stalemate are resolved. Carwyn

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Jones was selected, as expected, as the new First Minister but it was

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clear from today's statements that the chamber could be a bearpit for

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the new administration. Despite the deal we have heard so

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much about, Leanne Wood was not taking a particularly consensual

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approach. I am not sorry about what happened last week and I will do it

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again, if I have to make Labour realise they are running a minority

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Government. What we saw last week from that party was arrogance. It

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was complacency and what we saw was a sense of entitlement on display.

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After that, Ukip's Neil Hamilton ramped up the language several

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notches with comments that shocked some AMs. So I am afraid that these

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two ladies have just made themselves political concubines in car when --

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Carwyn Jones' harem. And what a gruesome prospect that must be.

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Let's ask ourselves what reward they have obtained for this inauspicious

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position. After a challenging first day in the Chair last week, it is

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clear the new presiding Officer Ellen Jones has the work -- her work

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cut out for her. So after the exchange of the chamber, how are

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Plaid and Labour likely to get on in this Assembly? Leanne Wood joins me

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now. Today, you and Kirsty Williams were referred to by Neil Hamilton,

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the Ukip leader, as concubines in Carwyn Jones' harem. What you make

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of that sort of language being used in the chamber? There were a number

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of sexist exchanges this afternoon, I think I counted four references to

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sexual references. We are not used to that kind of debate here in the

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National Assembly so I guess having Ukip is going to take a bit of

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getting used to, but I don't think we should be that surprised, given

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whether politics come from. Should the presiding officer have stepped

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in it? Do you regard it as unparliamentary language? I would

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like to look at the record and consider what was said and I am

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certainly planning to speak to the new presiding officer because whilst

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we saw some sex which language today -- sexist language today, what next?

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Racist language, homophobic language which where is the line going to be

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drawn? Some pretty robust language within the normal sphere of

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political dialogue from you today, calling Labour bullies, arrogant,

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complacent. Was that a smoke screen to disguise the fact that you don't

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have a very big prize to show for this week's delay in confirming

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Carwyn Jones is First Minister? This time last week, the First Minister

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could have been elected and opposed unemployed come route could have won

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nothing -- and Plaid Cymru would have won nothing, but five out of

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our key pledges, nine key pledges, I would say in one vote in one

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afternoon here, five Camry has managed to win more for the Welsh

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people than the Conservatives managed to win an entire term last

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time. With respect, you have agreed to agree on the think you had pretty

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much agreed on. That is not a great victory. That is not true, there was

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a lot of debate in the last election about the new drugs and treatments

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are. You both wanted one, they were in both manifestos, more GPs, more

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apprenticeships in the manifestos. Can I pin you down on the new drugs

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and treatment fund? Labour's proposal was not to end the postcode

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lottery, to continue with the exception allergy causes, whereby

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people would lose out on a new drug or treatment if someone in the

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vicinity have had that already. What has been agreed today is to end the

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postcode lottery and that is something the campaigners were

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calling for. We have also managed to get our national infrastructure

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commission in their hand that provides a vehicle for some of our

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other key priority is not, like the Bangor medical school. -- other key

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priorities. You also talked about the M4, what you described is unfair

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voting, the schools register, you listed the things you failed to

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achieve. The new minority Government will need another party to work with

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them to get the rest of their programme through every budget. They

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can either deal with the Ukip and the Tories, and after the smears

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that came out toward Plaid last week for just voting with those two

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parties, I would find it very difficult to see how the First

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Minister could go to those two. So why not hold out for one of the big

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prizes, for one of the things you said today you hadn't managed to get

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out of Labour? That the say about the M4, we prefer the blue route...

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But you haven't got it, after this week. I can tell you now, we will

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not agree a budget with Labour if there is any money allocated to the

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Blackwood of the M4. We have got power beyond today. What we did

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today was one of the vote to allow Labour's nomination for First

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Minister to go through. Our hands are not tied in any other way but we

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have managed to win some serious concessions. These concessions have

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been won for people, it is not about ministerial cars and salaries for

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politicians, they are games for the people of Wales. We will talk about

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how the mechanisms will work in a second but can I make sure I

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understand what you are saying about the conditionality of your support

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for the future budget for some are you saying unless the Labour party

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above the black route and go for the blue Ridge, they will not get Plaid

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Cymru support for the budget? I have said that all along, Plaid Cymru

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will not support any budget that has provision for the black route. We

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think it is expenditure, it is not acceptable and is confined to one

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part of Wales when the infrastructure investment is

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required throughout the country. So that is the totemic issue for you

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heading to the budget, the M4? We have plenty of totemic issues, a la

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manifesto includes 180 policies. Year you are not holding out for

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them all to approve the budget? We will have priorities and the M4 is

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just one contentious issue, we will have others. But you have raised

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this as the next hostage, really, haven't you? For this next minority

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Government, the passing of the budget. We stood for election on a

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manifesto of transport and change... What other key issues ahead of the

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budget? You will have to wait and see for the budget negotiations for

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that but we can see our priorities and what we oppose from this

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Government and we don't intended to change our position. So explain the

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election issue, there are representatives of Plaid Cymru,

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civil servants, but no agreement has to be reached. What is the point?

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The point is that Plaid Cymru will have an early opportunity to input

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into the Welsh Government's programme of legislation and budget

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if we so choose. And they can decide to disregard you under this

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agreement? If they decide to disregard what it is we want, they

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have to deal with another party to get their budget. So why do you need

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a liaison committee? When we have entered into budget negotiations in

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the past, the process is quite late in the day, the decisions that are

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made tend to be around ticket price items, without looking at the budget

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across all departments. This will give us the opportunity to look at

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the budget as a whole and we will be in a position to decide whether or

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not we want to allow Labour to... The liaison committee sounds like a

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fig leaf. What is the purpose? You don't have to agree anything, you

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could withhold support without a liaison committee, why have it? You

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are right. This is something that allows Plaid Cymru to get closer to

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the process, if that is what we want to do. I am determined to use the

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budgetary process and any other vehicle we can, including liaison

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committees, to get as many Plaid Cymru proposals through as possible.

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We promised to be the change Wales needs at the last election and if we

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get our programme through, Wales will see big changes as a part of

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Plaid Cymru's actions. Leanne Wood, thank you for joining

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us. This fifth Assembly isn't just different because of the presence of

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Ukip and the change in arithmetic, there is a substantial intake of new

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a.m. S. Jeremy Menez is the new a.m. For Neath, welcome to the programme

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and congratulations on your election. Today in the chamber, a

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couple of female a.m. S were referred to as concubines. What did

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you think of that language? I thought it was shocking and horrible

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for all the females in the chamber but also horrible for anybody who

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thinks that of its cares about the language in public office in Wales

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and I hope we don't hear any more of it. Some pretty robust language all

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round. Leanne Wood accusing your party of smearing, of bullying, of

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arrogance and complacency, this after week in you failed to get the

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First Minister selected. It has been a pretty humbling start, hasn't it,

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for your party? I think it has been clear from the start that although

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we were the largest party, with 29 seats and in that sense, we have the

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first opportunity to form a Government, obviously because we

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don't have a majority, we can only govern in consultation with the

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other parties. That has been clear from the start, in fact, and

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actually, what I was pleased about today is that we have got to a point

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where the Assembly has nominated Carwyn Jones as the First Minister.

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We have had a period of obviously intensive discussions between the

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Labour Party and Plaid Cymru and during those discussions, a number

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of areas of common ground have been identified and that is obviously

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very positive going forward. It will have to go on like that. You heard

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Leanne Wood say today that she was expecting concessions from Labour at

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every turn and the next hurdle would be the budget and that is the

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position your party is in as a minority Government, isn't it? What

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has been agreed as part of the deal between the two parties is the

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establishment of three liaison committees between the Government

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and Plaid Cymru as the principal opposition party, which will be

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staffed by civil servants and I think the objective of those must be

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to ensure those points of friction, if you like, are kept to a minimum,

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by having a dialogue around key pieces of legislation. It remains to

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be seen how that is going to work when you are a minority and you have

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a new, muscular opposition, effectively saying you want us to

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support your budget, you have to back down on the black route for the

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new M4, for example. You think there will be an appetite for that within

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the Labour group? It is to be seen how it plays out in the future, but

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I think what the agreement, for my money at least, has established as a

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basis on which it benefits all parties to have greater transparency

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and scrutiny of legislative powers and so I think that will be a

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benefit. You are just going to get kicked around, aren't you? We have

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seen that this week, and it is going to continue. I don't think that'll

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happen. We have an agreement where we are happy that the manifesto

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priorities we set out, read childcare, infrastructure, GPs and

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so on, all those things are things that have been identified in the as

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areas of priority. They are the low hanging fruit, the think you have

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common ground on. Coming up to the budget of the things you won't have

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common ground on, the really difficult things Angie will have to

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give some major concessions. The point of having a finance liaison

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committee for example is to make the process as soon smooth as possible

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and there has been a recognition from the start that as a Government

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with 29 seats, it doesn't give us a majority to govern and as we did in

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the last Assembly, successfully, Carwyn Jones and the Cabinet were

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able to negotiate with other parties to ensure we got programmes through.

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That happened very successfully. It was a much easier environment.

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For a minority Labour Government to navigate. Clearly from the first

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week it is clear this won won't be. The mathematics were different, but

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you heard Carwyn make it clear today that although we have 29 seats, we

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understand that we need to govern in discussion with other parties. Thank

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you very much. That was Felicity Evans with

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the latest from the Senedd there. So here at Westminster today,

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the Queen has been listing the Government's legislative

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programme for the coming term. Among the things discussed

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were prison reform, that is one of the main headlines,

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a list of some 21 measures in the Queen's Speech,

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and a mention too of that So with that in mind,

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I'm going to introduce the Wales Office Minister,

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the Conservative MP Guto Bebb. Well, I think the bill is almost

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ready to be introduced in Parliament but obviously I think

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there is a respect agenda between Westminster and Cardiff,

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and therefore it's imperative that we see the nature and the form

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of the Government in Cardiff before But I would be very confident over

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the bill being introduced Well, that's good, that

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gives us a good sense. And how confident are you that some

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of the very big concerns raised by Carwyn Jones and others

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in Cardiff will have been addressed Well, I think there has been a very

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long listening process, It didn't meet with universal

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acclaim, it is fair to say, but we did produce the bill in order

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to allow pre-legislative scrutiny, which happened,

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the Welsh Select Committee reported, various stakeholders in Wales

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indicated what they were happy with and what they

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were unhappy with. So I think a lot of the concerns

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which have been raised will be addressed, but they do need to be

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addressed on a cross-governmental basis, we need to have

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buy-in to the Wales Bill from the Welsh Government

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and therefore any delay that we now have is basically waiting

:15:53.:15:55.

for the new Welsh Government to indicate whether they are happy

:15:56.:15:57.

with the concessions and the changes But just to underline,

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that talk of the necessity test, There are some reservations

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which have been maintained but that is in relation to,

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for example, no change in the legislation in relation

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to what constitutes a murder in the United Kingdom,

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which most people would understand, Reflecting on the process itself

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and where you've got to today, are there things that should have

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been done differently? Because lots of people are saying

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that initial first offering that you brought up was clearly not

:16:25.:16:27.

acceptable and clearly Well, I find that criticism very odd

:16:28.:16:29.

because I would argue that the Wales Office did exactly

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what we should be doing in Parliament, which is to bring

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forward a proposal for discussion, Indeed, in addition to being

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a Wales Office minister, I've spent about a third of my time

:16:40.:16:44.

in the whip's office and many in the whip's office would argue

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that we need to do more of bringing forward proposed legislation,

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so there is an opportunity for Parliament and the wider

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population to just offer their views as to whether the legislation

:16:54.:16:59.

is making sense or not. So I know there have been

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criticisms of the legislation as proposed last autumn,

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but I would argue that the opportunity to comment on that

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legislation was a strength and the fact that the Wales Office

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paused and was quite happy to go back to the drawing board to make

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sure we reflected some of the concerns raised,

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that should be a positive, Well, that's a positive, Minister,

:17:17.:17:18.

but you know as well as I do that there was some surprise

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in the Wales Office that the opposition to that bill

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was as acute as it was. I think when you develop

:17:25.:17:28.

your own legislation, obviously there is a degree

:17:29.:17:30.

of ownership and no one likes to see their own work

:17:31.:17:33.

criticised in any way, But I think the previous Secretary

:17:34.:17:35.

of State was very open that the criticism in relation

:17:36.:17:39.

to the necessity test, for example, And rather than carry on with a bill

:17:40.:17:41.

that was getting no support from the Assembly, for example,

:17:42.:17:46.

I think the decision to pause was reflective of the feedback

:17:47.:17:49.

received and I think it shows a mature view of how we work

:17:50.:17:52.

through the issues and the challenges that

:17:53.:17:55.

devolution brings us. The quick point I wanted to raise

:17:56.:18:01.

from today's Queen's Speech, because there is a very significant

:18:02.:18:04.

element of prison reform and in North Wales, of course,

:18:05.:18:07.

in Wrexham, one of the most modern prisons in the world

:18:08.:18:10.

is about to be opened. Why isn't Wrexham then on the list

:18:11.:18:12.

of the six prisons that are going to get this new experiment,

:18:13.:18:15.

giving governors much more autonomy? Well, I think the reason

:18:16.:18:18.

for that is that Wrexham is already building up on best practice already

:18:19.:18:20.

within the prison sector. I think everybody acknowledges

:18:21.:18:23.

that there is a need to look again at the way in which we are reforming

:18:24.:18:26.

and helping people to reform The broader context

:18:27.:18:29.

of the Queen's Speech, I don't think anyone will deny

:18:30.:18:48.

that we have a big European context, This week, we have had

:18:49.:18:51.

Lord Heseltine making a very, very strong attack on Boris Johnson,

:18:52.:18:55.

just again underlining the depth of the divisions

:18:56.:18:57.

in your party as you approach it. You have got five

:18:58.:19:00.

weeks of this to come. How concerned are you that the party

:19:01.:19:02.

is actually tearing Well, I think tearing ourselves

:19:03.:19:04.

apart might be slightly overstating it, but it is undoubtedly

:19:05.:19:08.

an uncomfortable period The Conservative Party

:19:09.:19:10.

is neutral on this issue, I'm bound to wonder as well,

:19:11.:19:13.

Minister, you know, how possible When you look at the kind

:19:14.:19:23.

of antipathy that is evident now in this debate, how much

:19:24.:19:27.

of a problem is it going to be for people to come together

:19:28.:19:30.

after this campaign? Well, I think first of all,

:19:31.:19:32.

all colleagues need to reflect upon their use of language,

:19:33.:19:35.

because I think that is unfortunate. We do need to make sure that we show

:19:36.:19:38.

respect to each other's arguments. There are people on both sides

:19:39.:19:41.

of this argument who are very strong in their views but they are doing it

:19:42.:19:44.

with a degree of respect towards each other,

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and we will have a huge job in putting the party back together

:19:48.:19:50.

after this referendum. But I don't think that's beyond any

:19:51.:19:52.

of the realms of possibility. I think we have a very strong view

:19:53.:19:55.

that the Conservative Party has a further four years

:19:56.:19:58.

in Government and when this referendum is done and dusted,

:19:59.:20:00.

it is imperative that we move on, as this Queen's Speech has shown,

:20:01.:20:03.

quite clearly, with a positive So I would say to everybody,

:20:04.:20:05.

you know, calm down We have our views but

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they should be expressed Minister, we will talk again,

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I hope, during the campaign. So after all the events

:20:13.:20:16.

of the past few weeks, we now have a new government

:20:17.:20:20.

in Cardiff Bay, a first minister elected and

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the political focus is fully engaged on the EU referendum

:20:23.:20:24.

in five weeks time. Here on the Wales Report,

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we ll spend the next few weeks looking at some

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of the main factors ? with a series of special

:20:29.:20:31.

reports and interviews. And tonight we ll start

:20:32.:20:33.

with agriculture, because the farming industry is not only

:20:34.:20:36.

important to Wales it s also been heavily dependent

:20:37.:20:39.

on EU subsidies under the Common Agricultural

:20:40.:20:42.

Policy or CAP, which eats up an enormous 39%

:20:43.:20:45.

of the current EU budget. Felicity Evans has been to meet

:20:46.:20:47.

two farmers on opposing This year's lambing season was as

:20:48.:20:59.

ever a busy time for Welsh hill farmers. Brian has been farming for

:21:00.:21:07.

most of his life and he has received EU subsidies for most of the the

:21:08.:21:12.

time. Sheep and cattle are the most common type of farming in Wales and

:21:13.:21:18.

most get that support. Many worry if Britain leaves the EU that support

:21:19.:21:24.

would be lost. But leave campaigners say the UK Government would replace

:21:25.:21:29.

the subsidies. But the uncertainty worries Brian. He said it would be

:21:30.:21:33.

hard to stay in business without them. Not unless the price of the

:21:34.:21:37.

products we are selling would have to double to be able to sort of

:21:38.:21:44.

factor in the cost of producing it. I mean we are told that if we are

:21:45.:21:51.

exit that we will have a support. But what? Nobody's telling us what.

:21:52.:21:56.

There is money set aside for it, but what? We don't know. But some

:21:57.:22:02.

sectors of the industry don't receive any subsidies, poultry and

:22:03.:22:07.

pig farming for example. There are not many pig farmers in Wales, but

:22:08.:22:12.

Ken is one. He thinks British farmers would be better offoutside

:22:13.:22:18.

the EU and those who receive subsidy would learn to survive without it.

:22:19.:22:25.

Like he has to. As a pig producer we get no support, not that we are

:22:26.:22:30.

looking for support. What about your colleagues who say you may not get

:22:31.:22:35.

subsidies, but we do and they are important and they come from the EU.

:22:36.:22:42.

If nay lose their subsidies they will re-evaluate and a year or 18

:22:43.:22:47.

months they then will move forward. Wales two farming unions have in

:22:48.:22:51.

favour of Britain remaining in the EU. That is not just about

:22:52.:22:56.

subsidies, but the single market, the core principle of the freedom of

:22:57.:23:00.

movement of goods and services, this is the idea that Welsh producers

:23:01.:23:04.

have unfetterred access to consumers on the continent. But some say the

:23:05.:23:09.

single market is far from a level playing field. We are breeding

:23:10.:23:19.

ourselves and we keep them in straw that is comfortable and keep it as

:23:20.:23:26.

natural as can. Ken has concern about welfare standards in other EU

:23:27.:23:33.

states. Not only do standards here be higher, but he thinks the EU

:23:34.:23:40.

standards are not enforced, making it harder for him to compete with

:23:41.:23:45.

European farmers. So Ken wants out of single market so that the UK

:23:46.:23:49.

government can have more control over the sort of pork products being

:23:50.:23:55.

import. The standards in Europe basically is that mainly they

:23:56.:23:59.

packing as much as they can into a unit. So that the growing pigs have

:24:00.:24:04.

less movement. They don't have straw. So they're on concrete. It is

:24:05.:24:10.

bad for their joints and it is not comfortable. It is like us sleeping

:24:11.:24:16.

on a concrete floor. So obviously, with, they do that just to keep

:24:17.:24:21.

labour costs down and pipe food in and I think that there should be

:24:22.:24:26.

more regulation to come in. More control. And specially the welfare

:24:27.:24:35.

standard. Ken doesn't export any of his pork. He competes for British

:24:36.:24:39.

customers. But his business is different. He exports his lamb to

:24:40.:24:45.

the EU. He says the single market is vital. Some who support a British

:24:46.:24:51.

exit argue we could leave the EU and still negotiate continued access to

:24:52.:24:55.

the single market. But Brian doesn't like the uncertainty. Well the key

:24:56.:25:03.

reasons is we have got 500 million consumers of our produce in Europe

:25:04.:25:11.

and 80 to 90% of lamb I'm producing go to Europe, the market place. It

:25:12.:25:17.

is on your doorstep. It is something that I feel is critical in

:25:18.:25:23.

agriculture in Wales. If there was facts and guarantees on the table

:25:24.:25:29.

signed deals to say our market is still there, and we know what we are

:25:30.:25:35.

doing, where we are going, maybe I would consider a few different

:25:36.:25:39.

avenues. But none of that is in place. And I think it is ludicrous

:25:40.:25:48.

to exit the EU when we don't know what we will have. For Brian the

:25:49.:25:53.

single market means an open door to 27 other countries. But for Ken, it

:25:54.:25:58.

means competition from those other countries here at home. For farmers,

:25:59.:26:04.

what they're selling and where they're selling it may well dictate

:26:05.:26:06.

their views on EU membership. I'm joined now by the Conservative

:26:07.:26:10.

MP David Davies on behalf of Vote David, was that a fair summary of

:26:11.:26:27.

the debate about the EU in the context of farming in Wales?

:26:28.:26:31.

Couldn't give ten out of ten to that one. It is all well to concentrate

:26:32.:26:36.

on subsidies, but there are a lot of sheep and lamb and cattle farmers

:26:37.:26:41.

who want to come out of the EU. And everyone's confident that even if we

:26:42.:26:46.

come out, some form of subsidy will continue at the same level as it is

:26:47.:26:50.

now, because we would have more money and could double the subsidies

:26:51.:26:54.

if we came out. Other nobody is suggesting that. The Prime Minister

:26:55.:26:59.

said he would guarantee the subsidies. You could have spoken to

:27:00.:27:07.

a sheep or cattle farmer and I put you in touch with plenty. The point

:27:08.:27:15.

it is not one thing, subs idies have been a focal point of the debate for

:27:16.:27:20.

many years. What did you think of the cases there? What was

:27:21.:27:25.

interesting was what Brian said about the uncertainty. I must take

:27:26.:27:31.

issue that you say there would be certainty that the subsidy would

:27:32.:27:34.

continue. That is where the leap into the dark is occurring. There is

:27:35.:27:38.

no guarantee whatsoever that these subsidies would continue and we are

:27:39.:27:42.

looking at a situation and both of the farming unions in Wales are

:27:43.:27:47.

saying this, you look back over the last 20 years, 40 years, we have got

:27:48.:27:53.

Governments have been in favour of reducing the Common Agricultural

:27:54.:27:56.

Policy budget. Would they continue subs dips at the same level and also

:27:57.:28:02.

at liberalising food imports. This faith here if the farming industry

:28:03.:28:08.

were to find itself in a situation where Britain leaves Europe, there

:28:09.:28:12.

is real uncertainty as to whether they would be support and 80% of

:28:13.:28:21.

farmers in Wales, the majority are sheep and cattle farmers and are

:28:22.:28:28.

dependent on the CAP. The figures are interesting in 2015 UK farmers

:28:29.:28:35.

received over euro 3 billion in direct support, in Wales I have a

:28:36.:28:45.

figure for the single payment scheme in 2013 ?250 million. Those are big

:28:46.:28:50.

sums and in a context where we have a Government with big financial

:28:51.:28:54.

challenges, surely no one is in position to give guarantees that

:28:55.:29:00.

subsidies would continue. No one can guarantee they can continue when the

:29:01.:29:05.

next round of CAP comes around. But they have existed for decades. They

:29:06.:29:10.

existed for decades before we came into the EU, since the Second World

:29:11.:29:14.

War there have been subsidies. Perhaps we should be talking to

:29:15.:29:18.

other sheep and cattle farmers who have different opinions on this. But

:29:19.:29:22.

the other important was about the free market. Actually it is not a

:29:23.:29:29.

case of some Brexit people suggest we would get a free trade agreement.

:29:30.:29:34.

Everyone is certain we would, because it is more in the interests

:29:35.:29:38.

of the EU to have that agreement than for us to have it with them.

:29:39.:29:42.

The problem is the uncertainty isn't there. It is not a case of people

:29:43.:29:46.

saying, other certain that would be the case, when people who would be

:29:47.:29:50.

in a position to offer the deal are saying, oh, hang on, you know, there

:29:51.:29:56.

could be consequences. Are the French Government to say to French

:29:57.:30:00.

wine makers and say you're out of work and can't export to the UK or

:30:01.:30:06.

the Danish say that to pig producers and others say that to their beef

:30:07.:30:12.

producers. We are spending three times as much on food imports from

:30:13.:30:17.

the EU as we export. The funny thing is it would be in interests of

:30:18.:30:22.

farmers if there was no agreement. On the point of exports, 90% of beef

:30:23.:30:30.

and lamb export from Wales goes to EU. The NFU has been looking at the

:30:31.:30:39.

nature of trade agreements and Breck sit have been talking about the free

:30:40.:30:45.

trade agreement. There is only effective when they have that 100%

:30:46.:30:52.

payment. When that is reduced, they lose between 8,000 and 20,000 pounds

:30:53.:30:57.

a year. That is not necessarily as good as it seems unless we have the

:30:58.:31:03.

subsidies in place. The concept about uncertainty, because there

:31:04.:31:07.

will be farmers watching and I thought the point made about having

:31:08.:31:13.

facts and certainty is something we will hear more about, hopefully we

:31:14.:31:18.

as media and journalists can provide some facts. The uncertainty, what

:31:19.:31:23.

you're asking is for some farmers to take a leap in the dark and take a

:31:24.:31:28.

step towards an uncertain future. What would you say? No, it is pure

:31:29.:31:35.

common-sense that it is in the interest of everyone to have a free

:31:36.:31:40.

trade agreement. We don't need a free trade agreement to trade. We

:31:41.:31:44.

are doing more trade with America, but we don't have a free trade

:31:45.:31:51.

agreement. It is a conceit to suggest that politicians, the MPs

:31:52.:31:54.

are responsible for all the trade between countries. We are not

:31:55.:31:57.

responsible. People get together and buy and sell things all the time. We

:31:58.:32:01.

sometimes make it easier. But we should have a free trade agreement

:32:02.:32:04.

with Europe. Everyone agrees that and it that it would be possible,

:32:05.:32:12.

including people like Lord Kerr, the former UK ambassador to the EU. They

:32:13.:32:16.

say it is straight forward to do that. The problem is you were part

:32:17.:32:21.

of what they call project fear, you are simply there to say it is going

:32:22.:32:26.

to be terribly dangerous and uncertain you shouldn't consider

:32:27.:32:29.

this step. It is all to do with trying to give people cause for

:32:30.:32:34.

concern. The reality is there is uncertainty and that it will be a

:32:35.:32:38.

political decision that would resolve whatever situation we arrive

:32:39.:32:41.

in, following the referendum. You have got to look then, make a

:32:42.:32:46.

serious disigs and think -- decision and think is there a political

:32:47.:32:52.

decision in terms of agriculture that result in farmers increase Ogg

:32:53.:32:58.

decreasing their income. We will see that replaced by this Government,

:32:59.:33:01.

the Tory Government, I don't believe that? David Cameron has made it

:33:02.:33:07.

clear we would be and the real uncertainty is what will happen if

:33:08.:33:11.

we continue in the EU and no guarantee of subsidies and that we

:33:12.:33:15.

will increase trade, our trade with the EU is diminishing. We will be

:33:16.:33:18.

back I guarantee that. Of course course We'll of course be coming

:33:19.:33:29.

back to the forthcoming EU referendum over

:33:30.:33:31.

the coming weeks with a series of special reports

:33:32.:33:33.

and interviews and there will be a special debate

:33:34.:33:35.

in the week before the vote. If you'd like to get in touch

:33:36.:33:38.

with us about that or anything else, email us

:33:39.:33:41.

at [email protected], or follow us on social media ?

:33:42.:33:42.

we re @TheWalesReport. We'll be back next week,

:33:43.:33:44.

thanks for watching.

:33:45.:33:47.

With five weeks until the referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, what impact will an in or out vote have on farming in Wales? Huw Edwards presents, and Felicity Evans has the latest from the Senedd.


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