Browse content similar to 01/06/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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As Welsh steelworkers wait for news from both Tata | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
and the UK government, we ask, where next | :00:08. | :00:08. | |
With less than a month to go until the referendum on the the UK's | :00:09. | :00:22. | |
How much of a factor is immigration playing in the debate? | :00:23. | :00:25. | |
When it comes to using numbers in political campaigning, | :00:26. | :00:29. | |
Good evening and welcome to The Wales Report. | :00:30. | :00:40. | |
Remember, you can join tonight's conversation on social media. | :00:41. | :00:43. | |
We start tonight with the latest on the steel industry in Wales. | :00:44. | :00:49. | |
After a meeting last week in Mumbai, Tata's continuing the process | :00:50. | :00:52. | |
of selling its UK operations, including Port Talbot. | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
The UK government's put forward proposals to change the pension | :00:57. | :00:58. | |
system in order to allow the company to fill the deficit in its scheme. | :00:59. | :01:07. | |
Here's our business correspondent, Brian Meechan. | :01:08. | :01:15. | |
The uncertainty continues over what is next for the loss-making Port | :01:16. | :01:22. | |
Talbot site and others around the country. The future of Tata's plans | :01:23. | :01:29. | |
including here at Port Talbot is being decided that is as ours away | :01:30. | :01:34. | |
behind closed doors in Greybull Capital. Negotiations are ongoing | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
between the company, UK and Welsh men's and the bidders trying to | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
overtake these operations. The outcome will have a huge operation | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
on the workers here and their families and the entire community | :01:47. | :01:51. | |
surrounding it. This local bar is backing Tata workers with especially | :01:52. | :01:58. | |
broad ale. As part of the UK's government efforts to protect the | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
industry, it is proposing changes to the pension system to allow the | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
company to reduce its deficit which is currently ?500 million. The UK | :02:08. | :02:11. | |
government's plans would see the huge Tata pension scheme from ?15 | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
billion, the ?12.5 billion. Either way, no company that buys it will be | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
likely to take over that liability. That means it is essentially a | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
negotiation between the government and Tata about how to resolve the | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
pension deficit and at the moment, it is the workers and pensioners in | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
that scheme who have to pick up the bill. We knew they were always going | :02:36. | :02:41. | |
to come back for pensioners, either Tata or any potential new owners, | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
they would always attack pensions again. Pensions experts have | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
estimated with limited information available, the people who have | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
already retired will lose an average around 25% of their pension whether | :02:56. | :02:58. | |
they go into the new government scheme or the pension protection | :02:59. | :03:04. | |
fund. It is bullying tactics. It is a question of, if you do not play by | :03:05. | :03:11. | |
my rules, I am taking it away. I think it is absolutely disgraceful | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
that they should look at the pensions and penalised retired | :03:16. | :03:22. | |
steelworkers. The UK government has said that this plan they are putting | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
forward for pensions will only be felt Tata and will not have a wide | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
impact the pension schemes and other people paying into pension schemes. | :03:34. | :03:37. | |
Do you believe that? I do not believe that for one instance. That | :03:38. | :03:42. | |
is the first stage of the government meddling in other private pension | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
schemes. How can they justify letting Tata get away get away with | :03:48. | :03:53. | |
taking money out of our pension pots when at the current time they are | :03:54. | :03:56. | |
telling everybody to take pensions out? It just does not make any sense | :03:57. | :04:01. | |
to me. Rumours have been going around about Tata and whether it is | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
going to rethink and reconsider its decision to sell. What do people | :04:06. | :04:09. | |
think about that, about Tata staying? I feel bitter about it, to | :04:10. | :04:16. | |
be honest. I am lucky, I still have a job. But I know a lot of men and | :04:17. | :04:22. | |
women that have not got jobs any more, they have been cast out of the | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
business, surplus to requirements. And I feel bitter for them. And | :04:26. | :04:32. | |
also, for those left behind. We have gone through the mill as well. With | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
all this, things that have been happening. Politicians have been | :04:39. | :04:41. | |
supportive of the proposed changes to the pension scheme. I trust the | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
view of the trustees on this, but it looks like they have got quite an | :04:46. | :04:52. | |
innovative solution. They will reindex from the Retail Price Index | :04:53. | :04:56. | |
to the Consumer Price Index, which helps to pay down the liabilities. | :04:57. | :05:00. | |
And it secures a sustainable future for the fund. It seems Tata and | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
politicians have some convincing to do if these workers are anything to | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
go by. Pension rights have been hard gained and many will want to ensure | :05:10. | :05:11. | |
they are not easily lost. I'm joined now by the First | :05:12. | :05:13. | |
Minister, Carwyn Jones, who was That was for the Tata board meeting. | :05:14. | :05:23. | |
Welcome. What is your reaction to the suggestion about reindexing the | :05:24. | :05:29. | |
Tata pension scheme? Do you support that idea? I would not be supportive | :05:30. | :05:33. | |
of scene cuts the benefits to those retired or paying in at the moment. | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
That needs to be examined carefully and you can see from the reaction of | :05:38. | :05:43. | |
the three men in the film that it is a natural reaction, people saying, | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
why should we have our benefits cut? I would not be supportive of it | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
going into the government's tech show and fund which was designed to | :05:52. | :05:55. | |
deal with those companies going bust. That is not the case for Tata. | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
It is for the trustees to work through a solution to this to make | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
sure we do not see a cut in benefits. We do know that no buyer | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
will come forward if the pension scheme is there and they have to | :06:08. | :06:11. | |
take it over so it does need government intervention that we have | :06:12. | :06:14. | |
to make sure it does not penalised pensioners and those already in the | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
scheme. Is there a third option is available or have you been waiting | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
for other proposals to be made by the trustees? When British Coal was | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
privatised, the deal was done with the British Coal pension scheme so | :06:28. | :06:31. | |
it would be more attractive for privatisation. The government made a | :06:32. | :06:34. | |
deal and that scheme is doing well and the UK government is doing | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
better at that scheme that it should be. So that our presidents and it | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
just needs to have innovative thinking. Concern about the current | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
proposal is it, the slippery slope and could apply to firms other than | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
Tata if they get into pension deficit. And the other is a | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
financial analyses we had analysing the figures suggests there is not | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
much to Prince in terms of how workers come out of it between the | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
reindexing and the pension funds -- much difference. If the fund went | :07:06. | :07:09. | |
into the pension protection fund, a queue of businesses would say, we | :07:10. | :07:13. | |
will have the same, thank you very much, you have done it for Tata. | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
They have to look at Tata separately but there are different ways of | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
analysing what is proposed but it is for the trustees to decide how best | :07:22. | :07:24. | |
to take the pension scheme forward to protect those who are part of the | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
scheme. How urgent is it they come up with a third plan on the | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
pensions? Tata has talked about wanting to complete a sales process | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
by the end the month. It is crucial, nobody is going to with steel | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
breaking unless the pension fund changes. I understand the gap in the | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
funding which is not unusual in funds like this, it has reduced over | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
the years anyway and this is not a scheme that is about to collapse. | :07:51. | :07:55. | |
But that does need to be dealt with in order for there to be a | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
successful change. You are saying no to the pension protection fund, at | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
Eurosceptical desk article on the real index in and you would like to | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
see a third plan? I would like a situation where people do not see a | :08:10. | :08:12. | |
huge loss benefits I think pension protection is wrong and there are a | :08:13. | :08:17. | |
number of hazards for the UK government on that. I look for a | :08:18. | :08:20. | |
solution to protect the integrity of the scheme that does not see | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
enormous cuts on those involved. Trustees have said there will be | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
cuts involved but they think the reindexing is the most likely option | :08:29. | :08:33. | |
and if they stick with that, can they convince you? Let's see it, we | :08:34. | :08:36. | |
have not seen the figures and the detail and until we see that, it is | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
difficult to give an opinion. In principle, you have heard what I | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
have said about what should be done with the pension scheme. What about | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
the report that Tata might be reconsidering the sale process given | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
the improving market conditions, what the jewel reaction to that be? | :08:54. | :08:57. | |
It is not a question of who runs the steel industry but the commitment | :08:58. | :09:04. | |
they showed -- what would your reaction to that be? Some workers | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
will say that how can we be sure that Tata will have that commitment | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
when they have already said they want to sell and Tata will have the | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
response to that. We would not want Tata to continue and the pension | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
issue to be dealt with and three years down the line the threat | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
remains. I heard that the loss in Port Talbot in steel was down by two | :09:25. | :09:30. | |
thirds and there is talk of steel making breaking even in the very | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
near future which is very helpful. Funny, it is about having somebody | :09:35. | :09:37. | |
to put in the investment and who is committed to the future of steel in | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
Wales. You think Tata is not given what has happened? They would have | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
to convince people. Tata is a company with a good reputation and | :09:48. | :09:50. | |
that means something to them. They are not a here today and gone | :09:51. | :09:56. | |
tomorrow company, to be fair. Having said they want to sell, if they then | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
want to stay, obviously they will have to convince the workers at the | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
Welsh plans that that is a long-term commitment and they will have two | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
give guarantees in my view to make sure that is the case. We do not | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
want them to stay for now and then look at it in three years' time, | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
that does not give the certainty that workers need. You in Greybull | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
Capital last week for the board meeting that for the board meeting, | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
who did you talk to and what came out of that -- you were in Mumbai. | :10:26. | :10:33. | |
They said that the position at the moment is to sell. But in the | :10:34. | :10:36. | |
future, the position may change. That is what they said. But they | :10:37. | :10:40. | |
said that is the position at the moment and they have been given the | :10:41. | :10:44. | |
challenge of finding a seller and that is what they are working on. | :10:45. | :10:49. | |
Whether the upturn in steel prices has an influence on their thinking, | :10:50. | :10:56. | |
we will remain to see. What is important is if we were in a | :10:57. | :11:00. | |
situation where there were no bidders, nobody wanted to run the | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
industry, that would be difficult. The seven bidders have said they | :11:04. | :11:09. | |
want to look at the bidders in some detail and that is to be welcomed. | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
And they sticking to the deadline as you understand it of completing the | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
process by the end of June? As time ticks on and they do not publish a | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
short list or name a preferred bidder, it is a tight deadline | :11:24. | :11:26. | |
already. No timescale was indicated to me at the meetings. I think the | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
timescale hopefully has extended. Tata is not losing the money that | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
they were. Yes, they are losing money, but it is not as bad as it | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
was and that might mean the timescale is extended. In some ways, | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
that is good and it gives time for a proper solution to be found, but it | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
still creates that uncertainty for the workers at Port Talbot and the | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
other locations. And we need to say, there is a deal on the table, and | :11:53. | :11:59. | |
that is crucial to all workers. You have spoken to workers at Port | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
Talbot. And we heard some of the men saying the uncertainty is terrible | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
to difficult -- is terrible to live with for those working and for those | :12:09. | :12:12. | |
who have pensions. It is not recent. We have seen lay-offs in the past | :12:13. | :12:16. | |
and people had been concerned for a while. I would say to people in Port | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
Talbot and I live down the road, we are fighting hard to make sure the | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
industry has a future. Carwyn Jones, thank you very much. | :12:26. | :12:27. | |
Immigration is one of the big issues in the run-up to this month's | :12:28. | :12:30. | |
referendum on whether Britain should remain in or leave | :12:31. | :12:33. | |
The most recent official figures put net EU migration to the UK - | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
that's the difference between the numbers of people coming | :12:38. | :12:39. | |
This week, on The Wales Report, we're going look at | :12:40. | :12:43. | |
what the issue means for us here in Wales. | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
I've been to Merthyr to see if the town's past | :12:49. | :12:51. | |
It might be hard to believe now, but this site was once home to the | :12:52. | :13:05. | |
world's biggest ironworks. 250 years ago, the ironworks were at the | :13:06. | :13:09. | |
cutting edge of technology. If village that consisted of sheep | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
tracks and a couple of thousand residents became a magnet for | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
immigrants. At first, they came from other parts of Wales and England and | :13:19. | :13:23. | |
then from Ireland. When the first census was done in 1801, suddenly | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
people discovered that Merthyr, the parish, was the largest in Wales. | :13:29. | :13:37. | |
7700 people. They were astonished. But it kept on growing. By the | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
1880s, Cole was King and the burgeoning economy attracted a | :13:43. | :13:48. | |
second wave of migration to Merthyr. The Jewish refugees came here, | :13:49. | :13:52. | |
Italians came here, they are not refugees but economic migrants. | :13:53. | :13:55. | |
Spanish people came here because the works is importing iron or so | :13:56. | :14:00. | |
Spaniards came over with the iron will. So Merthyr is the most | :14:01. | :14:07. | |
cosmopolitan town in Wales apart from Cardiff and Swansea, the | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
seaports. The boom years of Merthyr have long gone and the unemployment | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
rate is consistently above the wealth -- the Welsh average, but | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
people from other EU country still come here to work. Freedom of | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
movement is a key principle of the EU, the freedom of movement of | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
people, goods and services and capital. Creating a single market | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
with no barriers to travel, trade or investment. But it is the free | :14:33. | :14:36. | |
movement of people principle that concerns a lot of people worried | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
about levels of EU immigration into Wales and the rest of the UK because | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
all you need to work here is an EU passport. | :14:46. | :14:54. | |
Home country of Holland, he worked in IT but the pay was not good. -- | :14:55. | :15:05. | |
in Max's home country of Paul and. He says educating and training good | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
workers is expensive to the taxpayer in the country they drawn up. But | :15:11. | :15:15. | |
Britain is getting the benefit of his training without having to pay | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
for it. From my perspective, I strongly believe that the British | :15:21. | :15:26. | |
economy is gaining a lot because they don't... It is people who are | :15:27. | :15:34. | |
paying taxes straightaway and expanding the economy. Today, local | :15:35. | :15:38. | |
factories like that behind me continue to attract workers from | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
other EU member states. Around 2% of the population of Merthyr are EU | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
nationals, below the UK national average of 5%. Some research | :15:50. | :15:58. | |
suggests there is a small impact on jobs and wages and it is most likely | :15:59. | :16:03. | |
to affect lower skilled workers, the sort of people who might be | :16:04. | :16:09. | |
competing for jobs in Merthyr's meat factory. This woman has concerns | :16:10. | :16:16. | |
over the impact of EU immigration on the town. There is not enough jobs | :16:17. | :16:21. | |
and houses in Merthyr for the people who have lived here all their life. | :16:22. | :16:28. | |
There are very low income families. These people are coming, these | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
immigrants, and are prepared practically to work for nothing. | :16:33. | :16:36. | |
Leave campaigners say that leaving the EU is the only way for Britain | :16:37. | :16:40. | |
to get back control of its borders and tackle problems caused by | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
immigration. For Remain campaigners, it is not so simple. They say of | :16:46. | :16:50. | |
Britain wants continued access to the single market, freedom of | :16:51. | :16:54. | |
movement is something the country may have to accept. | :16:55. | :16:57. | |
Joining me now on behalf of VoteLeave is Ross England. | :16:58. | :17:05. | |
How important is the immigration issue to the EU debate? An important | :17:06. | :17:13. | |
part of the jigs and one which must be taken seriously. Those of us who | :17:14. | :17:17. | |
want to remain in the EU believe we should be discussing this topic and | :17:18. | :17:22. | |
stressing how important immigration is to Britain. 60% of the EU | :17:23. | :17:28. | |
immigrants into Britain come with a degree. That brings a great deal of | :17:29. | :17:33. | |
skills, particularly to our universities, to our NHS and it | :17:34. | :17:40. | |
enriches our economy as a whole. That does not detract from the fact | :17:41. | :17:46. | |
that of course there are difficulties in certain areas. Your | :17:47. | :17:52. | |
film shot Merthyr, which has a very low rate of immigration. But there | :17:53. | :17:57. | |
are higher rates in for example the London area. To what extent, bass | :17:58. | :18:02. | |
England, do you believe some of the problems caused by immigration in | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
areas where lots of people are moving in and possibly putting | :18:08. | :18:10. | |
strain on resources such as the NHS and schools, to what extent you | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
think that feeds into the fault Leave argument? I think it is clear | :18:15. | :18:22. | |
that leaving the European Union would address those issues. We don't | :18:23. | :18:29. | |
have control over our borders. The UK Government does not have control | :18:30. | :18:32. | |
over who comes into the UK from Europe. Virtually every country in | :18:33. | :18:39. | |
the world controls its own border. The issues you're talking about in | :18:40. | :18:43. | |
terms of the price of labour being pushed down is an inevitable factor | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
when you have a country that is open to a labour market in which there | :18:50. | :18:54. | |
are hundreds of millions of people willing to work for less than the | :18:55. | :18:59. | |
people in that country. It is an uncontroversial thing to say that | :19:00. | :19:03. | |
having free movement of people across the EU pushes deep cost of | :19:04. | :19:11. | |
labour down. Doesn't it depend on whether Britain wants to negotiate a | :19:12. | :19:16. | |
place in the single market? Norway and Iceland are not in the EU but | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
are in the single market so they have to accept freedom of movement. | :19:21. | :19:26. | |
The UK would have its own deal with the European Union. Norway has a | :19:27. | :19:34. | |
unique deal. The UK would be able to negotiate a deal with the EU over | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
which we had very low tariff trade and at the same time we can can -- | :19:40. | :19:47. | |
we can control our own borders. Immigration is a complex issue. | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
You're talking about the price of labour being pushed down, so people | :19:53. | :19:57. | |
having less in their pay packets if the are low skilled. At the same | :19:58. | :20:03. | |
time, some immigrants coming in and contributing hugely through their | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
expertise and skills. That can be addressed by a British government | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
which has control over its immigration policy. It is up to the | :20:12. | :20:15. | |
British government to decide once it has the power to decide. What's not | :20:16. | :20:21. | |
to like about having control over Borders? This is a totally spurious | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
argument. Australia has control over its own borders. Today, the Leave | :20:29. | :20:36. | |
campaigners are advocating a points -based system. Australia has twice | :20:37. | :20:41. | |
the number of immigrants that we have. It chooses how many people to | :20:42. | :20:50. | |
let him. The point is you have to have immigration in the modern world | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
in order to invigorate your economy. We work in an international economy. | :20:55. | :21:03. | |
Companies do business abroad. They have headquarters in one country, | :21:04. | :21:08. | |
other plants in other countries. There is bound to be a great deal of | :21:09. | :21:15. | |
immigration. And it is a sign of a successful economy. Why do people | :21:16. | :21:20. | |
want to come to Britain? Because we are doing well. The danger is of | :21:21. | :21:23. | |
course that the people in favour of leaving the EU will get their wish, | :21:24. | :21:32. | |
which will of course cause such a big economic shock that we will have | :21:33. | :21:38. | |
a very per economy and you will get fewer people wanting to come because | :21:39. | :21:43. | |
we are not offering the jobs people come for. Now that is an extreme | :21:44. | :21:49. | |
scenario. At the point is, and Ross says we will do our own deal with | :21:50. | :21:54. | |
Europe, we would do our own deal with Europe, but Europe as a rule | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
for everyone which relates to free movement of people. Among other | :22:01. | :22:05. | |
things. As you said in the film. And therefore that is what is there a | :22:06. | :22:11. | |
choir of Norway and of Iceland. If you want access to that economy, | :22:12. | :22:15. | |
double cushion our economy as a whole, then you need to have free | :22:16. | :22:22. | |
movement of people. Your response to that, that it is spurious to argue | :22:23. | :22:26. | |
that Britain could somehow be the only country to negotiate single | :22:27. | :22:30. | |
market access and not have to negotiate free movement of people. | :22:31. | :22:36. | |
If it wanted to negotiate full single market access, Britain would | :22:37. | :22:45. | |
be in a good position to do that. Britain is the fifth biggest economy | :22:46. | :22:48. | |
in the world. One of the most powerful countries on earth. It is a | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
great shame that British politicians seem to want to talk us down and | :22:53. | :22:58. | |
talked only potential of an independent Britain to throw our | :22:59. | :23:07. | |
weight a bit on the world stage. Thank you for joining as. | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
With the Assembly election over and the EU referendum fast | :23:11. | :23:13. | |
approaching, we are all used to hearing politicians using numbers | :23:14. | :23:15. | |
and stats to back up their arguments. | :23:16. | :23:17. | |
Throughout the campaign, we've been bombarded with conflicting claims | :23:18. | :23:20. | |
about the costs and the benefits of membership from both sides. | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
But do you ever have the sneaking suspicion that politicians might not | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
Will Moy, of fact checkers Full Fact, is here to explain how | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
to demystify the numbers and give us some advice on how we can debunk | :23:31. | :23:33. | |
45. 70,000 jobs will be lost. A lot of people are treated by the feeling | :23:34. | :23:53. | |
you cannot trust what you hear from the people in power. That is not | :23:54. | :23:57. | |
always true. It is hard to know which bits you can trust on which | :23:58. | :24:01. | |
you cannot. As a voter, you can't take anyone's word for anything as | :24:02. | :24:08. | |
totally at face value. There are not many claims you couldn't look at and | :24:09. | :24:11. | |
say that is exactly what is going on. The question is, what do you do | :24:12. | :24:16. | |
next? Ask yourself three questions. Where does it come from? Is there | :24:17. | :24:23. | |
any reason to think this is independent, credible, impartial? | :24:24. | :24:29. | |
Secondly, what are the actually measuring? It has been simplified, | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
it is a head like no. What is underneath and is going on in the | :24:34. | :24:41. | |
real world. Finally, just because something is going on in the real | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
world, the economy is getting bigger or smaller, that doesn't mean that | :24:46. | :24:49. | |
is what it is going to do in your own life or for your family. Two | :24:50. | :24:59. | |
months after the referendum, we have well funded campaigns and people are | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
wary. It is a problem for the campaigns and the voters. People | :25:05. | :25:08. | |
understand there is often more to the story than what they're getting | :25:09. | :25:12. | |
from the campaigns which are trying to persuade them. People don't know | :25:13. | :25:21. | |
what to do next. This is a referendum about what the world will | :25:22. | :25:25. | |
be like in 30 years' time and it is up to you to make a best guess. | :25:26. | :25:28. | |
I'm joined now by Dr Matt Wall, from Swansea University. | :25:29. | :25:33. | |
Welcome to the programme. Politics is about persuasion. I guess we | :25:34. | :25:39. | |
shouldn't be surprised that the politicians want to pick the fact | :25:40. | :25:44. | |
and figures that best support their argument? Absolutely. You'd be | :25:45. | :25:47. | |
surprised if they did anything different. I think the art of the | :25:48. | :25:53. | |
campaign is to pick the best possible fact that cannot be | :25:54. | :25:59. | |
revealed as an outright lie. We have seen that on both sides. These are | :26:00. | :26:12. | |
favourable interpretations of the numbers. How much it costs us to be | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
in the EU and how much it might cost to leave. Both of them we should be | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
sceptical about, you suggest? How does one cultivate an air of | :26:23. | :26:25. | |
scepticism about these things without being cynical? Good | :26:26. | :26:31. | |
question. It is difficult. The video we just watched talks about the | :26:32. | :26:39. | |
source of information. You should be sceptical about things coming from a | :26:40. | :26:45. | |
campaign than something coming from an independent source like the ONS. | :26:46. | :26:52. | |
Immigration figures are based on observation. Economic observations | :26:53. | :27:04. | |
are based on projections. -- economic figures. The further we get | :27:05. | :27:16. | |
into the future, the more difficult the prediction becomes. While there | :27:17. | :27:20. | |
is a relative economic consensus about the short-term effects of a | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
British exit which would generally seem to be negative, 1520 years' | :27:26. | :27:31. | |
time, nobody can really see what effect would be. There has been | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
scepticism about statistics for a long time. On the other hand, we | :27:38. | :27:43. | |
know that statistics is an important way of us learning about the world | :27:44. | :27:50. | |
and improving the world. Florence Nightingale did it. And | :27:51. | :27:52. | |
mathematician and statistician who used these that sticks to marshal | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
the powers that be to implement the policies that saved hundreds of | :27:58. | :28:05. | |
flights. To be responsible with numbers, how much irresponsibility | :28:06. | :28:09. | |
is there on those making these arguments not to dissolution are, do | :28:10. | :28:14. | |
you think? That is an interesting question. I think people are | :28:15. | :28:19. | |
responsible for themselves, for the information they concern. I think | :28:20. | :28:23. | |
disillusioning the voters with stretching the truth, I don't know | :28:24. | :28:31. | |
that is necessarily something... Campaigns must persuade voters and | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
they will take the figures that suits them. In Britain we have a | :28:37. | :28:41. | |
range of independent bodies to give us relatively reliable statistics on | :28:42. | :28:46. | |
things like rove and immigration. I think it is important. The biggest | :28:47. | :28:50. | |
distinction I would make is between projections and distinctions. If you | :28:51. | :28:58. | |
look at independent versus campaign based sources, that will help your | :28:59. | :29:04. | |
sought the chaff from the wheat. Is there a figure you have come across | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
in your career that has stuck with you or has changed your 99% of all | :29:09. | :29:15. | |
statistics are made up on the spot. That is one of my favourites. -- | :29:16. | :29:26. | |
your worldview? 99% of all statistics are made up on the spot. | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
That is one of my favourites. Thank you. | :29:31. | :29:32. | |
We will be holding a special debate the week before the EU referendum. | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
If you'd like to get in touch with us about that | :29:38. | :29:39. | |
or anything else, email us at [email protected]. | :29:40. | :29:42. |