29/06/2016 The Wales Report


29/06/2016

Arwyn Jones presents the current affairs series taking a look at issues that matter in Wales and asks decision-makers about the consequences of their choices.


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We have the Secretary of State for Wales, the leader of Plaid Cymru and

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either a couple of experts in order to answer questions on what next for

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Wales. Good evening and welcome

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to a special Wales Report. Tonight, we'll be looking

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at the impact of last week's referendum and the UK's decision

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to leave the EU on us here in Wales. The fallout from the result

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shows no sign of waning, with the impact of the Brexit vote

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being keenly felt by the main political parties, both

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in Westminster and in the Senedd. Like England, Wales voted to leave

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the EU, but most Welsh politicians had called on people to back

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the Remain campaign, leaving them with some pretty big

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questions to answer. Remember, you can join

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in the discussion - Colin Jones, can you update is on

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where you are with negotiations on where we are with the European

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Union. We are setting up our own team in Brussels and the job of that

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team will be to start negotiations. We are in a different position to

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Scotland. Our people voted to leave the European Union. There is no

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getting away from that. But they voted to leave the European Union,

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not get done over by them. What are your team doing? We are putting

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experience into the team there and taking advice from the people

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involved in the Democratic vote. We are on a different perspective to

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Scotland and from my perspective I want to make sure we get the best

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deal for Wales. The money coming should not be stuck in London. In

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terms of those carrying out the discussions, we know that the Leeds

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side wanted some of their representatives to be part of that

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sensation team. Is that something you'd consider or allowed to happen?

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They don't know what they want both. I listened carefully to the leader

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of the Welsh Conservatives yesterday, asking him for 3

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advantages of leaving the EU, and he couldn't even give me 1. This is a

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Welsh government negotiation. Of course we will report back to the

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other parties but we need to get on with this. You say you have got

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teams out there doing work. How much planning happened before the vote on

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Thursday. It's very difficult to carry out detailed planning because

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we don't know what happens next. I've listened to Leave campaigners

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and it's a bit like somebody who's throwing a brick through a window

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and said how do we put the window back together again. Didn't you have

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anybody in Cardiff Bay saying, that we might vote out, what will we do

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afterwards? It would have been a different scenario if we had baited

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to remain rather than leave. -- voted. We would be speaking to

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Gibraltar, Scotland and Northern Ireland about how to protect

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ourselves. We voted to leave so we will be discussing how to get the

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best deal with after leaving. I got hands tied because of that? Only

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because that is what people wanted. There's no getting away from that. I

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do not want to see the money that Wales receives at the moment

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disappear into a money box in London. We need to get the best deal

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possible for our people. You say that you want to be part of the

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single market. You know that free movement of labour will be an

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intrinsic part of that. If you allow that to happen, isn't that going

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against the wishes of the people in Wales who have said they don't want

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that? At the moment the only models on the table involve free movement

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of people for market access. Some people have said that will change.

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Well, let's see. From my perspective, I went be saying that

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we want is the pre-movement of people but what we do wonders access

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to the single market. After that vividly vital for Welsh business.

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How do you square that circle? Let's see how flexible the European Union

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are prepared to be. Flexibility isn't normally a word you'd

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associate with the European Union. If an oil tank. The question for me

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is, the union needs to survive. It needs to be far more flexible to

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survive. That means being farm flexible in terms of changing the

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ways that have been traditional for 40 years but have to change. You've

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clearly set up on these negotiations now. Are you concerned that barely

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made infrastructure projects, such as the Metro project, might be

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kicked into the long grass now or cancelled altogether? I wrote to the

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Prime Minister asking him to keep to the promise that every single penny

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wheelies will be made up by the government. It wasn't his promise

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there, was it? I expect that promise to be kept by whoever is bigger than

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ever to Prime Minister. If that promise is not kept we went be able

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to fund projects that had an element of European funding, which would

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mean that Wales loses out. What would be the effect if that money

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that was coming in doesn't come in any more? If we don't get the money

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from London, the Metro is in difficulty. There are road schemes

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and apprenticeship schemes that would be in difficulty as well. The

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leave campaigners made a pledge that everything up any of that scheme

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would come to Wales for us to decide how the money would be spent. If

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that money doesn't come, we have a number of problems. We saw in

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Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon called an emergency cabinet, was calling

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leaders. Do you regret that it was Monday before you had another

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cabinet. Why not hold it 2448 hrs earlier? Two things, I'm not sure

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why the -- whether the Scots have got anywhere. And it was a different

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object array. Scotland voted to remain, Wales didn't. Scotland has

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decided it wants to stay in the EU. The Scottish Government has decided

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that means independence. That is not the view of the people of Wales.

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From our perspective, this is a long-term game. This will not be

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resolved in the next week or two but it is something which needs to be

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resolved in the best interests of the people of Wales in regard to

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what they baited next week. Considering how Scotland and Wales

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-- Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain, what went wrong in

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Wales? If it was in my control, I would not have chosen this time to

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have a vote. The English papers and the Eurosceptics have much more

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penetration in Wales than they do in Northern Ireland and Scotland. That

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affected people. People were raising immigration with me and where

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immigration was low, people thought it was a much more important issue.

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A strange paradox but that is what happened. People would say to me

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when I pointed out European projects that it is our money anyway. It

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wasn't but now they expect it to be delivered by the Leave Campaign.

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Isn't it a fairly damning indictment of the Labour government since

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devolution that we had billions of pounds coming in, 15 years of that,

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that they turn round and say, we are not interested in that at all, we

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will turn our backs on the institution that was giving us the

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money. That's because of the way you have handled that, isn't it? No,

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people were saying to me that this is our money. From Wales's

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perspective this was money coming in from the European Union and it is

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money that needs to keep coming in. Why went to bed saying, if Carl

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Wynne Jones says so, that must be it? Six weeks after the election

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campaign, it is impossible to have an effective referendum campaign.

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Most Labour voters voted to remain and most conservative voters voted

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to leave and that tells you something. It was a difficult

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campaign to fight. We have had people saying there needs to be a

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time of soul-searching, of listening because we don't connect with our

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working class communities, what's the point of labour gesture market

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doesn't seem to me that you are buying into that. That is correct.

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-- she is correct. We had an election six weeks ago and they gave

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us the largest share of the vote. There was a massive drop in your

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share. We worked hard to make sure that we maximised our vote and I was

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told it would be worse. There are some communities that will

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disconnected from politics, from all politics, and some people were

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saying to me it is a protest vote. They are angry and this is how they

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are letting it out. Lots of people were saying to me, we are still

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labour, I am going to vote Labour but I'm going to give the Tories a

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kicking. When you tried to explain this was not how to do it, they

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didn't want to hear that. What is clear is that those who made the

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promises to Wales have do keep them and we make sure the money still

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comes to Wales. That glosses over the disconnect between you and your

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heartland, the working-class areas, which I've always supported Labour

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and now certainly from your point of view, from Jeremy Corbyn's point of

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view, and listening, aren't interested. Many of our voters

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disagreed with us on the referendum question for a number of issues.

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There are questions for us as a party to make sure we can connect

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with many of our voters again and we can -- we have had this conversation

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within the party. That means we have got local government elections next

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year, hugely important that our counsellors are active in our

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communities as many of them are in order to build up from grass weeds.

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You say you need to listen, something needs to change. What is

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going to change? We've heard this before and yet here you are being

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given a kicking in your heartland. Part of the answer lies in job

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security. I came across people and it was clear to me that the U was

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the target for them because they felt insecure. They doubt that there

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are jobs were not valued, why not well paid, there was no union

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representation and they were without job security. They remembered their

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parents having all those things. How do you deal with all of that? We

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have to move back to the days when the society had proper employment

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rights and people felt desperately insecure and will express that

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unless they get the kind of security in their lives that they once

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enjoyed. Globalisation is a good thing in some ways but for many

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people it's led to secure well-paid jobs becoming insecure, temporary

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contracts, sometimes zero hours, with Labour pensions at the end of

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it. That needs to be dealt with properly so that people have

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implement rights at a UK level. At a UK level, I mentioned there was a

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failure on your part and Jeremy Corbyn could have the same said

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about him. What do you make of the contest? This was never going to be

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resolved in any other way. The party is deeply divided. We have no hope

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of winning an election if we carry on like this. There needs to be a

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resolution and then of course that means a leadership election. Do you

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think there will be an election later this year? It would need

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support from Labour MPs for that to occur and that would be difficult. I

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want to be in a position in October when we are far stronger and in a

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position to win in an election but we're not at the moment. Would

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Jeremy Corbyn be your first choice of leader to go into that election?

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I never support any particular candidate for a leadership bid. I

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never call on other leaders of my own party to consider their

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position, that is not my role. What I do say and what is obvious to

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everybody is that we can't carry on with things as they are. The only

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way to resolve this is through another leadership contest. If you

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have a situation down here in the Assembly where the overwhelming

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majority of Assembly members here were calling for you to stand down

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and no confidence, as Jeremy Corbyn housing, would you carry on as he

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has done? It is difficult to see how that would be possible if it

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happened here in Cardiff. The only way to resolve this is through

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another leadership contest. Is the outcome of that leadership contest

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going to be that Jeremy Corbyn will win again because he has the

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overwhelming support of members? He did last year but we don't know what

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the outcome will be this time around but what we do know is that we can't

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carry on as we are. We can't be in a situation where we have the vast

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majority of MPs was no confidence in their own leader and the only way to

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resolve it is through another leadership contest. Is there a

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problem if Jeremy Corbyn has to stand again and wins, what does that

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say to you going into the general election we might see later this

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year when the party will be massively divided in terms of MPs

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having to fall behind a leader they don't really want? We can't win an

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election if we are seen as divided. It is obvious, we saw that in 1983.

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You say you were call for him to leave but it seems to me that

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everything you are saying is that he should probably leave. No, I am

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saying there should be another leadership contest and that is the

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only way that this can be resolved. How hopeful are you with any chance

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of winning an election with Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of Labour? We

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have no chance as things stand given the current state of the party

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Westminster and this needs to be revolved -- resolved. That was the

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First Minister. The new leader will have a fully

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tray waiting when they take up office in September but the first

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task is the not so small matter of negotiating the British withdrawal

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from the European Union. Key to making the Welsh voice heard in

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those negotiations as the Secretary of State, the Conservative MP, Alun

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Cairns, I caught up with him earlier.

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We are few days on an hour from the referendum campaign. Why did Wales

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and the UK vote to leave the European Union? What is really

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important is that we have to respond to the referendum outcome. People

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voted and they have made their decision so it is up to the

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government now to respond positively on that basis so as a result I have

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been holding a series of meetings with business leaders and with

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higher education and further education colleges and local

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authorities and I have plans of meeting a range of charities as well

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that benefit from the European single market or European aid.

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Coming on to that in a moment. I just want to get your views on what

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happens, especially in those parts of Wales that we have been

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discussing that received most money from the European Union grants and

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the ones that strongly voted to leave the European Union. What went

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on there, do you think? It is difficult to tell but it is almost

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irrelevant at this stage because we need to demonstrate that we are

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responding to the demand to leave the European Union but we also need

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to understand why and Willie to look at the European aid programmes in

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those areas that would have voted most in favour of remaining in the

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European Union and a small part of that might be how the lack of

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traction of those schemes would have had. Some of the projects that were

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being pursued might not have resonated in the way that the

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designers of those projects would have thought. That might have been

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part of it but the wider issue of benefit claimants across people in

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Europe and immigration problems and how they saw that that was not being

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managed. Is that saying that grant money was wasted money? We need to

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look at that. I am not saying it is the single answer but it is a

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complex situation about relationships between communities

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that certain parts of the country voted leave and other parts of the

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country voted remain and we need to analyse that end it is far too

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simplistic to come up with one answer. Looking at your colleagues

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as Conservative MPs and awful lot of promises were made about that money

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coming to Wales and Wales would not be a penny worse off in the event of

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a leave vote. How important is it for you now that you personally hold

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those colleagues of yours to account and make sure they keep their

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promises? The referendum decision has been taken and the Prime

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Minister set up a specialist unit in Whitehall that will analyse all of

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the implications so that by the time the new Prime Minister is in place

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in a couple of months' time, that he or she would be in the best possible

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place to respond. I have been meeting with businesses, with

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universities and further education colleges and local authorities to

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find out what are their priorities so as the Secretary of State I will

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be feeding into that unit but also responding to the recommendations of

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that unit in the Cabinet table. You are the voice of Wales in that

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cabinet table and promises were made that money would still be coming to

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Wales. Surely it is your job to say that you need to keep that promise?

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Of course there are lots of uncertainties but I will absolutely

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be banging the jump for Wales as I know the First Minister will be and

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I will be working and in glove in getting a fair settlement for Wales

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but there are lots of uncertainties and we don't know the impact on the

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economy but I have been hugely encouraged today by the response

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from businesses and the best quote I heard was that entrepreneurs thrive

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on change and that was the response from businesses who are exporting

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already and importing now and it demonstrates the dynamism that

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exists. We are in a much stronger position. The deficit is at a much

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lower level than it was and the economy is in a robust position and

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we have the fastest growth of any of the world's leading nations so when

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you put it all in contacts we are in a good position to respond.

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When you businesses say they thrive on change and so on, that is in

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marked contrast to what we had in the referendum campaign and might

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feed into the idea that it was a project fear on behalf of the remain

:19:52.:19:53.

campaigners. Businesses are telling me that they see the opportunities

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now that they have here and they are realists and they are pragmatic and

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they have to react on the decision of the referendum, there is no point

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wallowing in it and saying it is doom and gloom because we can't get

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access anymore but they now see that markets elsewhere, they now see that

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they are rightly making demands that they will have as much of open

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access to the open market as possible. I have said to them that I

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will be making the UK Tite resource available to them so that the

:20:23.:20:26.

response from the UK Government, that they are fully part of that to

:20:27.:20:32.

trade and import and export to places not only in Europe but well

:20:33.:20:37.

beyond. I guess for businesses, they always say uncertainty is the enemy

:20:38.:20:40.

of businesses so wouldn't it it therefore have been better if the

:20:41.:20:44.

whole process and negotiation began immediately and in that regard may

:20:45.:20:48.

be David Cameron's idea to stand down and nothing starting now until

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September and all that uncertainty will continue for two months. I was

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so recovered -- encouraged by the response from business and

:20:58.:21:00.

universities and the local authorities. None of them want

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article 50 invoked immediately, they would prefer a period of calm so

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that we can analyse what the implications are and then the Prime

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Minister is in the strongest position to respond when he or she

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becomes Prime Minister. I would expect, and let's be frank, for the

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next two years absolutely, and I would suggest beyond that, for the

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next two years we are full and active members of the European Union

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so we get full access to the markets and full draw down on the benefits

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that come out of Europe and then we should not be ashamed of that but at

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the same time we will be negotiating how we leave and what lies beyond.

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You're going to have two sides of the Conservative Party who have been

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throwing insults at each other and now they somehow have to come

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together and unite under one leader. I have spoken to most of the

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leadership contenders and I will speak to them all before the day is

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out. They are all calling for calm, they are all recognising the work

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that needs to be done before the formal negotiations start. There is

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an awful lot of work to be done that is why I have been talking to

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businesses and local authorities and colleges and universities and so on

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to understand their priority because I will be taking the priority to the

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European Union unit and I will also be responding around the Cabinet

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table to the recommendations that come out of that unit said the

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opportunities that have been highlighted and the concerns that

:22:30.:22:33.

been written expressed will be responded to absolutely run the

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Cabinet table. Who should be at the head of that table and the next

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Prime Minister, in your view? I have said I am supporting Stephen Crabb.

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I worked very closely with him when he was Secretary of State for Wales

:22:45.:22:48.

Andy had an enormous positive impact on people will remember the tanking

:22:49.:22:52.

of the electrification of the valleys line, for example. I also

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remember the problems of the Wales Bill under his leadership. Should it

:22:56.:23:00.

be someone who was campaigning to leave the European Union, given that

:23:01.:23:03.

it will be the most important issue facing the next Prime Minister? The

:23:04.:23:08.

next Prime Minister will be one who unifies the party, quite obviously

:23:09.:23:11.

it will be on that basis. All of the potential leaders have talked about

:23:12.:23:15.

bringing the party together, about responding to the situation that we

:23:16.:23:20.

are in. The country has taken the decision and Wales has taken the

:23:21.:23:25.

decision and sometimes of the most deprived communities to leave the

:23:26.:23:29.

European Union so it is up to us as politicians to provide leadership

:23:30.:23:31.

and respond to their demands and that is what I am absolutely

:23:32.:23:34.

determined to do and that is what I am talking to businesses and

:23:35.:23:38.

colleges and universities and to the communities themselves about what

:23:39.:23:42.

they need out of this new situation. We'll Stephen Crabb really be able

:23:43.:23:48.

to tell people and convince them that he in what he is doing when

:23:49.:23:51.

actually he was voting for the complete opposite to happen? Time is

:23:52.:23:54.

past. The referendum was last we are responding to that referendum. We

:23:55.:23:59.

have set up the unit and the negotiations have started with the

:24:00.:24:01.

Prime Minister at the European Commission. He has already been

:24:02.:24:05.

building relationships individually with those leaders. I am already

:24:06.:24:11.

feeding in the responses from businesses and universities and so

:24:12.:24:16.

on to that unit and I have already championed the case of wells around

:24:17.:24:19.

the Cabinet table because we absolutely need to ensure that the

:24:20.:24:23.

union is not fragmented and Wales gets its fair share and I will

:24:24.:24:27.

absolutely deliver on that. Have you spoken to Carwyn Jones or anyone

:24:28.:24:31.

from the Welsh government in terms of how you move with them to move

:24:32.:24:35.

on? I have. I spoke to them immediately after the referendum and

:24:36.:24:39.

we work closely anyway and I met him at an event on Saturday where we

:24:40.:24:48.

were jointly standing at Armed Forces Day. We obviously had

:24:49.:24:50.

informal discussions of immediate priorities... Just informal, though,

:24:51.:24:56.

no cast-iron guarantees? I have said I will absolutely work hand in glove

:24:57.:24:59.

to make sure that his priorities and my priorities coincide so that the

:25:00.:25:04.

European Union who are preparing negotiations for the disentanglement

:25:05.:25:07.

is absolutely in the interest of Wales. The Welsh government has gone

:25:08.:25:12.

ahead and set up its own unit in Brussels working with institutions

:25:13.:25:15.

there, getting on with the work already, are you feeding into that

:25:16.:25:20.

at all? The prime negotiations will be done from the European Union --

:25:21.:25:24.

unit at Whitehall because it is the member state that does it but any

:25:25.:25:27.

additional work and support the Welsh government can provide we will

:25:28.:25:31.

use the information... They say they are just ploughing

:25:32.:25:50.

ahead without Whitehall and they just want to get the work done. We

:25:51.:25:54.

are working already on preparations for it but let us not forget that we

:25:55.:25:57.

don't want to see Article 50 invoked or the formal negotiations to star

:25:58.:25:59.

because once it does the clock starts ticking to two years and the

:26:00.:26:02.

more work we can do before that, the stronger position the next Prime

:26:03.:26:05.

Minister will be in in order to use that information to strike the best

:26:06.:26:08.

deal. At the same time we needed to calm down and we need relationships

:26:09.:26:10.

across Europe to be strengthened between the European nations but

:26:11.:26:12.

also between Britain and those individual countries. Some countries

:26:13.:26:14.

are more sympathetic to our position than ours and we clearly want to

:26:15.:26:16.

evolve that relationship so that they will be influencers and friends

:26:17.:26:19.

around the negotiation table. Alun Cairns, thank you very much.

:26:20.:26:25.

Unlike Wales and England, Scotland and Northern Ireland

:26:26.:26:26.

voted to stay in the EU, so what could all of this mean for

:26:27.:26:30.

The Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has suggested a second

:26:31.:26:33.

independence referendum could be held if it emerged as

:26:34.:26:35.

the only way to protect Scotland's place in the EU.

:26:36.:26:38.

And the question of independence is also being raised here in Wales,

:26:39.:26:41.

by Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood, who is proposing a new union

:26:42.:26:44.

Until now, Plaid has only regarded an independent Wales

:26:45.:26:47.

Thank you for coming in this evening. What happened last Thursday

:26:48.:26:58.

that makes you think an independent Wales more than ever before is the

:26:59.:27:04.

answer? This is not a situation of our own choosing. People voted last

:27:05.:27:11.

week to Brexit, but Scotland clearly voted to remain and Northern Ireland

:27:12.:27:15.

did as well, and what we have heard since then is that people in

:27:16.:27:22.

Scotland looks set to pursue and agenda, a referendum agenda, and if

:27:23.:27:26.

they vote to leave the United Kingdom of course the United Kingdom

:27:27.:27:31.

will exist no more, so under those circumstances we believe that there

:27:32.:27:34.

is an opportunity for Wales now to have a conversation about our

:27:35.:27:39.

long-term future and we believe that Wales as an independent nation, in a

:27:40.:27:46.

new union of nations, within the United Kingdom could be a way

:27:47.:27:49.

forward for us if that is what people would choose. Why should

:27:50.:27:55.

Wales be any different to England? The referendum result was pretty

:27:56.:27:59.

much the same so why would people go for independence on the basis of

:28:00.:28:03.

that? The UK referendum result last week was the same for both of us.

:28:04.:28:10.

People voted for the UK to pull out of the European Union. They did not

:28:11.:28:14.

vote for Wales to disappear. There is a very real risk that we could

:28:15.:28:21.

lose our national identity if the UK is no more. The idea of a right-wing

:28:22.:28:27.

England and Wales entity is something that I am not prepared to

:28:28.:28:30.

put up with without being able to offer an alternative. You talk about

:28:31.:28:37.

a new union. What does independence mean if it is a union and would

:28:38.:28:43.

Scotland be interested in that? Regardless of what happens in terms

:28:44.:28:46.

of each individual nation's independence, there would still be a

:28:47.:28:50.

need for the four countries that currently make up the United Kingdom

:28:51.:28:54.

to cooperate together. If independence is on the cards for

:28:55.:28:58.

Scotland, they said in the last referendum that they would continue

:28:59.:29:01.

with the same currency as the rest of the UK. So there are means by

:29:02.:29:09.

which we would need to pool some functions and it's up to each of us

:29:10.:29:13.

as independent individual nations then to decide how much we pool and

:29:14.:29:19.

how much we keep for ourselves. For example, you'd know the report

:29:20.:29:22.

earlier this year said an independent Wales would have a

:29:23.:29:27.

financial black hole of about ?15 billion a year because tax taken

:29:28.:29:30.

isn't as much as the benefits. That would stay then? One option would be

:29:31.:29:36.

for us to work out between us how we can redistribute the United

:29:37.:29:40.

Kingdom's current wealth between us as nations. That is one option.

:29:41.:29:47.

Short of full financial independence, because you are right.

:29:48.:29:50.

There is a big job of work to do to close that financial prosperity gap

:29:51.:29:56.

and that his work we need to do as well. Plaid Cymru has been saying

:29:57.:30:00.

that for a long time. We want to be in the position of having a path

:30:01.:30:05.

potentially back into European Union membership if that's something that

:30:06.:30:10.

people want to do long term. You seem to be ignoring what happened

:30:11.:30:14.

last Thursday. You are treating Wales as if it was Scotland. People

:30:15.:30:19.

in Wales voted out of the EU and you seem to be trying to find a path

:30:20.:30:24.

back in. You are right, people voted out, but we are talking about a new

:30:25.:30:30.

context. If the UK is no more and Wales chooses to go down the path of

:30:31.:30:35.

independence within a new union of nations, that opens up new

:30:36.:30:38.

possibilities for us and we should be prepared to look at all

:30:39.:30:49.

possibilities on the table. We interviewed Carwyn trained earlier

:30:50.:30:55.

on and I said he wasn't true to Labour's heartland and isn't the

:30:56.:31:03.

same from you. Is there any wilful independence in Wales? I think what

:31:04.:31:07.

happened last week is that people voted for posterity. -- they voted

:31:08.:31:18.

for change. They wanted to fight against austerity and I don't think

:31:19.:31:23.

that what we saw on Thursday was any different to me winning the Rhondda.

:31:24.:31:28.

They are losing out and they want to have a voice and they say. Of course

:31:29.:31:33.

we respect that. But also we have do think about Wales and its long-term

:31:34.:31:38.

needs and as things stand at the moment we have no clue where we are

:31:39.:31:44.

going. Our economy is under threat, jobs are under threat, finances for

:31:45.:31:48.

Wales are under threat. We need to have some idea where we are going as

:31:49.:31:52.

a nation and Plaid Cymru believes that a number of options should be

:31:53.:31:56.

on the table and nothing should be ruled out. In the more immediate

:31:57.:32:00.

future, discussions will be taking place in the next few days and

:32:01.:32:05.

weeks. Should you be part of those negotiations? Yes, I think we did

:32:06.:32:09.

have a team Wales approach to this. We should speak as one voice, as

:32:10.:32:13.

Wales, in terms of making sure that our needs articulate it and that we

:32:14.:32:17.

are very clear about what we all want from the situation. Nicola

:32:18.:32:21.

Sturgeon is going on harrowing. I'm the one making the decisions. She is

:32:22.:32:28.

not listening to anyone else. Why should Carwyn Jones? She has a

:32:29.:32:32.

mandate to remain from the people in her country. In Wales, it is less

:32:33.:32:36.

clear-cut. People voted pretty much the D - 50. Maybe that if a mandate

:32:37.:32:45.

for decisive action now so as not to confuse things? What we have to do

:32:46.:32:50.

is to make sure that Wales and its needs are met in full and I believe

:32:51.:32:55.

we can best make that happen by approaching it is Wales now, not as

:32:56.:33:00.

Welsh government. The worst government is a minority

:33:01.:33:05.

government... As is the SNP in Scotland? I think they have much

:33:06.:33:11.

more of a mandate to speak about half of the people of Scotland

:33:12.:33:13.

bearing in mind the referendum result than the First Minister of

:33:14.:33:20.

Wales does. The implications of the referendum results will no doubt be

:33:21.:33:23.

debated for years to come. The apparent disconnect

:33:24.:33:26.

between our politicians and voters will be a big part

:33:27.:33:28.

of that conversation. With most Welsh politicians

:33:29.:33:30.

supporting the UK's continued membership of the EU

:33:31.:33:32.

and the majority of voters in Wales choosing to leave,

:33:33.:33:34.

are our politicians out of touch? I'll be discussing this

:33:35.:33:37.

with political commentators Professor Laura McAlister

:33:38.:33:38.

and Daran Hill in just a moment. But first, here's the view

:33:39.:33:41.

from Ebbw Vale, in Blaenau Gwent, which returned the biggest

:33:42.:33:43.

leave vote in Wales. My parents voted Labour and it was

:33:44.:34:08.

always thought that Labour were for the working people but that's no

:34:09.:34:11.

longer true. Their role as bad as each other. They don't tell the

:34:12.:34:17.

truth, they lie about everything. They only have to open their mouths

:34:18.:34:23.

and they are lying, most of them. David Cameron, my boat out of Europe

:34:24.:34:26.

was a protest against him. I would vote for you Ukip and that would be

:34:27.:34:39.

a protest vote against the other parties. I've never voted before and

:34:40.:34:47.

I'll never vote again. 40 years ago our country was fabulous and now it

:34:48.:34:51.

is a shambles. It can't get anywhere, can it? We need to stand

:34:52.:34:56.

on our own two feet. We don't need other people. We want our country to

:34:57.:35:00.

be ours. There was nobody in particular that I was voting

:35:01.:35:10.

against. I just think we need a change. We have to think about our

:35:11.:35:14.

children's beach. We don't want them struggling like we have struggled. I

:35:15.:35:20.

vote for the people -- the party that I think will be the best for

:35:21.:35:24.

the people. I don't think there's anyone they get that I can... I

:35:25.:35:30.

think they want to get rid of the lot of them and start again. Start

:35:31.:35:39.

with a clean slate. Well, plenty to discuss them with my guests.

:35:40.:35:45.

Professor Laura McAlister and Daran Hill.

:35:46.:35:49.

Thank you for coming in this evening. That makes a grim viewing

:35:50.:35:54.

for any politician in terms of the complete disconnect not with any

:35:55.:36:00.

party but with politics in general. In fairness, this has been a long

:36:01.:36:05.

time coming. Rather be right back to the beginning of devolution when we

:36:06.:36:10.

had such a long -- Ltd popular support for establishing the

:36:11.:36:13.

assembly and we have seen low turnouts, the electoral system

:36:14.:36:17.

benefiting one big party in terms of getting elected, but there's been no

:36:18.:36:21.

real big will towards either the project or the politicians and this

:36:22.:36:28.

referendum of last week, where we saw a much bigger turnout of course

:36:29.:36:31.

than any assembly election, reflected the chasm which exists now

:36:32.:36:37.

between elected representatives, politicians, and those who are

:36:38.:36:41.

baiting. Will this be a wake-up call? In terms of labour losing its

:36:42.:36:49.

heartlands, Plaid Cymru not convincing the newly found support,

:36:50.:36:54.

they have turned their back on everyone? Will this change things? I

:36:55.:37:01.

have been waiting for a change in the last three years since Ukip did

:37:02.:37:05.

really well in the European elections and almost beat the Labour

:37:06.:37:11.

Party. I watched last year when Ukip held every deposit. Every pattern of

:37:12.:37:15.

voting suggests to me that something radically has changed in terms of

:37:16.:37:19.

the way many people connect with politics. Since that boat came in on

:37:20.:37:28.

Friday, finally, Plaid Cymru, that Liberal Democrats, the mainstream

:37:29.:37:32.

Labour Party have all realised what was blindingly obvious to many other

:37:33.:37:36.

people, that on the question of Europe, fundamentally, Wales was not

:37:37.:37:40.

with them and Wales was not ready to be taken for granted. But let me

:37:41.:37:44.

pursue this point. Since that fate last week, what's really changed in

:37:45.:37:51.

terms of the narrative coming out about main political parties? Plaid

:37:52.:37:54.

Cymru has been calling for independence and trying to pretend

:37:55.:37:57.

that Wales almost wanted to stay in in the fairway that Scotland did and

:37:58.:38:02.

the Labour Party is talking about protecting funding, ie no real

:38:03.:38:06.

change, just carry on spending the same blocks of money in the same

:38:07.:38:11.

way. Laura, we spent two Carwyn Jones today and up at the point to

:38:12.:38:17.

him that there needs to be a lot of soul-searching for the Labour Party

:38:18.:38:20.

now. If we don't represent the working class communities, what's

:38:21.:38:23.

the point? It doesn't seem to me that he was embracing the need for

:38:24.:38:27.

any change. Is there a danger that they will carry on regardless,

:38:28.:38:32.

ignoring, to an extent, the result last week? I can't see a big danger

:38:33.:38:38.

than ignoring this result, to be honest. If every one of the

:38:39.:38:41.

political parties don't do some really serious analysis, and really

:38:42.:38:51.

forensic soul-searching, of the kind that Daran was talking about, they

:38:52.:38:56.

are all in trouble. The point is, they can't do this alone. If they

:38:57.:39:00.

look parochially at their own teams that listening to the electorate,

:39:01.:39:06.

they are missing big messages that came over last week. What you make

:39:07.:39:11.

of the Plaid Cymru response which is that actually, let's go for

:39:12.:39:16.

independence again. Is that a knee jerk reaction? I understand it but

:39:17.:39:19.

they have a couple of fundamental problems that stop at the

:39:20.:39:23.

incredible. First of all, as we said a moment ago, Wales didn't vote like

:39:24.:39:28.

Scotland. That is really fundamental. Secondly, it was clear

:39:29.:39:32.

that all of the political leaders in Wales failed to get any kind of

:39:33.:39:35.

traction with the electorate in terms of what they were saying.

:39:36.:39:39.

Leanne Wood's own constituency voted in favour of leave and thirdly, the

:39:40.:39:46.

population of Wales is not like the population of Scotland. There is in

:39:47.:39:49.

this groundswell of support for the independence and the economic

:39:50.:39:56.

situation that we face now makes the Welsh economy even less sustainable

:39:57.:40:00.

than it might have been before the way -- before the vote last week.

:40:01.:40:07.

Just under half of Wales were for remaining if you look at the

:40:08.:40:11.

statistics. Is it worth looking at that, tapping into it and saying the

:40:12.:40:20.

only way to remain in that is to become independent. The cynical part

:40:21.:40:27.

of me thinks that they just assumed we would vote remain, England would

:40:28.:40:31.

fade out and then they would be able to dust of the independence card. My

:40:32.:40:36.

concern is that we are in danger of losing a national Welsh politics

:40:37.:40:40.

here. If you look back at the elections, the assembly elections,

:40:41.:40:50.

that was just a selection of local elections. That is the problem we

:40:51.:40:54.

have now. We have a progressive elite in some of the metropolitan

:40:55.:40:58.

areas like Cardiff who can't quite believe what the rest of Wales is

:40:59.:41:03.

voting and yet anybody who is committed to a national solution to

:41:04.:41:08.

this in Wales has do really embrace all these areas and come up with a

:41:09.:41:12.

plan to satisfy more people than just those in their immediate

:41:13.:41:16.

facility. I was really surprised when people said they couldn't

:41:17.:41:19.

believe how many people voted leave. I think a lot of us could believe

:41:20.:41:24.

it. Maybe they are not talking to people in the right way in the right

:41:25.:41:29.

circles, because as your clip showed a moment ago, there is a complete

:41:30.:41:32.

lack of trust and a complete lack of respect for politicians as they are

:41:33.:41:38.

seen by the electorate. But we are where we are now, as a country

:41:39.:41:43.

moving ahead. I don't mean this as a criticism, but you do get the idea

:41:44.:41:47.

that maybe a lot of the politicians are stumbling in the dark at the

:41:48.:41:51.

moment, not really sure what will happen next, where will they go,

:41:52.:41:55.

what will they do? Is that a fair summary? It's difficult to get a

:41:56.:42:00.

battle plan when the world is falling apart around your ears,

:42:01.:42:03.

regardless of which political party you are in, there are so many

:42:04.:42:08.

seismic changes occurring. For lots of individuals and lots of people in

:42:09.:42:12.

the hierarchies of the political parties that were on the remain

:42:13.:42:16.

side, they need to have a serious think about how they failed to

:42:17.:42:21.

convince the Welsh electorate. I think that stronger in was the worst

:42:22.:42:26.

political campaign, you use the word elitist, are back that up 100%. No

:42:27.:42:32.

wonder they won in Cardiff and lost everywhere else. The messages were

:42:33.:42:35.

establishment based. They kept talking about figures and spending

:42:36.:42:39.

without referring to individual projects. Do you know what? I don't

:42:40.:42:45.

think people believed them. I think in the poorest parts of Wales,

:42:46.:42:49.

obviously there was a corollary between deprivation and Vote Leave

:42:50.:42:53.

in the patterns of voting, in the poorest areas of Wales, as Daran

:42:54.:42:58.

said, those arguments about protecting savings and pensions and

:42:59.:43:03.

jobs didn't have any traction is because a lot of people didn't have

:43:04.:43:07.

jobs or savings. It is naive to think that argument would land well

:43:08.:43:11.

in those areas. Thank you both very much. I can't let you go though

:43:12.:43:17.

without talking about one element of where we are still in Europe. How is

:43:18.:43:22.

it going to look on Friday? I am quietly confident. It will be a hard

:43:23.:43:26.

game against Belgium but the word from Wales camp is that they have

:43:27.:43:32.

real confidence that we can get past them and my tip is that it will be

:43:33.:43:35.

in extra time. You heard it here first.

:43:36.:43:38.

If you'd like to get in touch with us about what's been discussed

:43:39.:43:43.

tonight or anything else, email us at

:43:44.:43:45.

[email protected], or follow us on social media -

:43:46.:43:47.

We'll be back next week, thanks for watching.

:43:48.:43:51.

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