15/03/2017 The Wales Report

The Brexit process will soon be under way, with a brand-new question

mark over the future of the United Kingdom.

Will Ukip have a role in Wales after Brexit?

We speak to Assembly group leader Neil Hamilton.

And we look at the very long road to local government

reorganisation in Wales - will the latest

Good evening and welcome to The Wales Report.

be formally under way, and, as Westminster gave

its blessing to that, the Scottish government

was demanding the right to hold a second referendum on independence.

Lots of talk about Scotland and Northern Ireland

and the future shape of the UK, but very little about how Wales

Remember, you can have your say, join in the debate on Twitter.

So, by the end of the month, the letter will be sent,

and Article 50 will be triggered, starting the formal process of

At the same time, we now have the prospect of a second

The potential consequences of Brexit are becoming ever more apparent.

Theresa May has two massive constitutional issues to deal with.

On the one hand, the UK's withdrawal from the EU, and on the other hand,

now the real potential of a second Scottish independence referendum and

the possibility of Scotland leaving the UK. Now, already we know that

Wales wasn't really featuring high up on their list of priorities for

the UK Government, so now they've got this other massive issue to be

dealing with, as I say, in terms of bandwidth, it leaves Wales in a more

vulnerable position. So where does Wales fit into this

constitutional jigsaw? The First Minister, Carwyn Jones,

has insisted that the UK's nations are "stronger together",

but Plaid Cymru says any move towards independence in Scotland

needs to start a debate If the UK ceases to exist, we need

to be thinking about what is best for Wales. It is time that we had a

far-reaching national conversation about where we want to head as a

nation. The people of Wales will ultimately decide on our

constitutional future. But we cannot come to decisions about where we

need to head unless we have the conversation. And I think what's

happening in Scotland is a stark reminder for us that we can't just

float as a nation. We have to be clear about where we are heading.

And I look forward to having that conversation in the months and years

ahead. And this is certainly a story that will run and run when the

starting gun is fired with Article 50 being triggered at the end of the

month. There is growing discussion about leaving without a deal, the no

deal deal. If the UK leads without a deal, we

talk about the UK crashing out of the EU, and this would have huge

economic and political implications for the UK as a whole and also for

Wales. So it would have huge trade implications, and we would see the

imposition of tariffs, we would see customs checks with cost,

inconvenience, time implications. As I say, for the UK as a whole and for

Wales. Joining me to discuss all this

is the Conservative MP and chair of the Welsh Affairs Select

Committee David Davies. And the Labour AM and former

MEP Eluned Morgan. Thank you for joining me. Just a

start with you, what we've seen over the last couple of days is Brexit a

step closer and that has led to Nicola Sturgeon saying, well, there

will be another independence referendum in Scotland soon. Do we

just accept in Wales we are an afterthought in all this? We're an

afterthought. The fact is, Brexit will impact on Wales more than any

other part of the UK, I think. Certainly financially will receive

?680 million a year from the EU. And the fact is, 67% of our trade and

goods goes to the EU. Those facts might not be in dispute, but a

Westminster point of view, my point is, they will be looking at Scotland

and thinking, that could lead to the break-up of the UK, they will be

looking to Northern Ireland, questions over the relationship and

the Borders. Even Nicola Sturgeon has said there is scope here for

negotiation. If we went for a softer Brexit, one that meant we could have

access in the single market, then there would be a reconsideration of

that situation in Scotland. That's the situation we want for Wales. We

want as close as possible a relationship with the single market.

So it now depends on what Theresa May can negotiate but she has to

understand so we're relying on Nicola Sturgeon getting the best

deal for Scotland, and then the best deal for Wales? We have a common

interest in that we both want to see as closer relationship as possible

with the EU in of access to that single market. -- as close a

relationship. So we could see Nicola Sturgeon saying we will hold the

second referendum for independence and that might soften her approach

to Brexit or make Brexit a bit softer. How would you respond to

that? I think it's inevitable Nicola Sturgeon was always going to find

another reason for calling a referendum, another one. She holds

the principle that if you don't get the answer you want in one

referendum, you hold another and another and another. I don't think

it was a surprise to me or anyone else I know that she found another

reason for doing it. As far as a close relationship with Europe is,

we want a good relationship with the rest of the European Union and we

want to sort out issues like those who have come over here, like my

wife, for example, to make sure they can stay, to stop all this

scaremongering. So all these things Nicola Sturgeon, these reasonable

requests cheesemaking, are things we have signed up to anyway. Would

Scotland leaving the EU be -- leaving the UK be paving way for

Brexit? There was with going to be a second referendum, whether it was

over Brexit or something else the government did that they didn't

like, I don't think the two up. But my question to you is, would it be

the price worth paying? I don't accept that the link between the

two. There was going to be a second referendum regardless of what

happened over Brexit. Even if Britain had voted to stay in the EU,

Nicola Sturgeon would have found an excuse to have a second referendum,

so there was always going to be won, and if she loses this, there will

probably be a third and a fourth as well. So there was with going to be

a possibility, not even a possibility, a certainty, a

likelihood, of another referendum. And it is ironic that the arguments

Nicola Sturgeon makes to stay in the EU are the very arguments she should

be making for Scotland to stay within the union, but that is a

decision for the Scots to make. We have to respect that, just as I hope

Nicola Sturgeon respects the fact most people voted to leave the

European Union. What we have been hearing from Theresa May and Philip

Hammond about the negotiations with the rest of the EU, they have said,

well, if we don't get a deal we are happy with, we will just leave. They

will fall back on the well of trade organisation rules and return to a

low tax, low regulation economy. What would you make of that if that

were to happen? I think that would be catastrophic, not just the Wales

but for Britain. We would have a change in the social model we have

because you can't fund education and health the way we do at the moment

unless you have a tax base from which you can tax. But they would be

arguing we would attract more businesses and tax that way. Trade

with the EU is crucial to our success, and however many trade

deals we do with the rest of the world, the fact is, people trade

within close props that -- proximity to each other. They are more

comfortable that way and it makes more economic sense. So we can dream

about signing up to trade agreement that may or may not come about, and

don't forget, we export much more than we import, so it is other

countries that will do well out of trade deals with Britain in future.

Our key objectives should now be to make sure we get free and unfettered

access to that EU market, because if we don't, there will be a price to

pay in terms of jobs in Wales. Is there a danger here that by

concentrating on what they would do in the event of not being happy with

the negotiations, that Theresa May isn't allowing enough scope to have

those kinds of discussions about what trade should look like with the

rest of the EU after Brexit? I think the real danger here is that all of

these voices offside, whether from Nicola Sturgeon or people in the

Labour Party who don't like the result of this, saying, OK, we will

have another vote in Parliament if we don't get the deal we want, but

we need to go into these negotiations making it clear that if

we don't get a trade deal, we will walk away and trade under the WTO

rules. And frankly, I don't see anything wrong with a low tax, low

regulation economy. But the trouble with that is, you have no mandate to

implement it. You don't have a general election, which would need

to happen to be able to press ahead with such a fundamental change in

the UK's economy. I think people would be quite happy if we were able

to reduce taxes, but we would still want to be able to deliver public

services in the highway we do. And look at Wales. Shorter NHS waiting

lists, better exam results. We are already delivering better results

than under 18 years of Labour. But you are proposing to cut back? We

are not proposing to cut back at all. If it attracts business in, it

will increase the tax revenue we have, and I thought Labour was

signed up to reducing red tape just as we are, so I am very surprised

about that. If they want to go out and campaign on the basis of very

high taxes and high regulation, that's up to them. What you think

will be happening over the next few weeks? How this will play out? We

want to keep environmental protection, social protection, but

also, if you look at corporation tax, we would have come in under

Ireland. We would have to reduce hours from 19% down to 12%, their

level, which is 100 billion out of the economy. That's how much we

spend on the NHS in this country. Let's get real. We are talking about

a fundamental change in the way our society is run, and as you say,

nobody has voted for that. Plenty more to talk about and plenty more

time to talk about it for the moment. But right now, thank you for

But right now, thank you for your company.

The party which played a key role in the UK's decision

Since winning seats in the Assembly elections last year,

the group has made its mark, with disputes, resignations and

So with Brexit another step closer, what next for Ukip in Wales?

Earlier, I spoke to Ukip's Assembly group leader, Neil Hamilton.

First of all, we have just seen Brexit will now be launched by the

end of this month, and that almost immediately led to Nicola Sturgeon

calling for a second independence referendum. Would you look at all

the constitutional up the -- upheaval caused by Brexit, is that

what you were anticipating? It is a game of gesture politics by Nicola

Sturgeon. She knows Theresa May won't grant her a second referendum

and she's just trying to back her into a corner. I would just call her

bluff. Because I think the referendum vote would be more

emphatic to remain part of the UK if there was a second one, particularly

now we are going to leave the EU. Scotland does four times as much

trade with England as it does with the rest of the EU. But would it be

a price worth paying hypothetically if Scotland left the UK. Would it be

a price worth paying for Brexit? That's a matter for the Scottish

people. I'm in favour of maintaining the integrity of the UK! Indulge me

for a moment. If that's what Scottish people want, then so be it,

but I don't believe there is a majority for independence in

Scotland and I think there's an even bigger majority against independence

in Scotland once we've left the EU than previously. I'm going to ask

you to indulge me in another hypothetical situation if you may.

What Scotland the UK and then Northern Ireland, they left the UK

as well? Where would that leave Wales politically? Well, there's

even less demanding Wales for independence and there is in

Scotland or Northern Ireland. -- demand in Wales. If you look at the

vote on the EU it's pretty much the same as in England, if not even

more. So I think the political culture in Wales is much more

reliance I think we would survive very happily. Do you think that

would change if it was a United Kingdom of Wales and England,

without the other Celts, if I can put it like that? Well, it would be

more lonely in a sense, and I would regret that. It would also mean

England would be overwhelmingly the larger partner than it is now.

England now is 85% of the UK and if it was just Wales and England, then

3.1 million people against nearly 60 million, Wales would be much more of

an appendage. But given we have a devolution settlement, I don't see

anything very much would change. With that devolution settlement and

Ukip's place in Wales after Brexit, where do you fit into it? Is there a

danger you can win the war on Brexit but then lose the peace by becoming

largely irrelevant? No, we are still on 15% in the polls nationally in

the UK. We have our group and make a lot of noise in the Assembly... You

might generate a few headlines for various reasons but what are you

achieving in Wales? We are an opposition party. We are not part of

the government so we can't push through legislation but we'll here

to stay and our role is to grow stronger in the system and become a

bigger political force to be reckoned with. But if you look at

the recent by-election in Stoke and the leaders who stood there, the

problem was Brexit wasn't a big issue there. It was fought on local

services, NHS, schools, local political issues, and on those

issues, voters don't care or know what Ukip is about there. Is that

the problem? Selling I think we should have concentrated on policies

that were closer to people. Or should have put more in the NHS.

That is the sort of policy pledge I will make in Wales because we are

they any party that says things like that. For the local elections, you

will be pitching it as a foreign aid issue which isn't a devolved to

Wales, let alone councils. The point is life is about choices and the

government spends our money, in certain ways, so we think it would

be better spent in other ways. Wouldn't it be better for you to

concentrate on issues where Welsh councils are able to enact change,

rather than something that is a matter for the UK government? We

will do that too. For example, ?300 off the average electricity bill if

we scrap subsidies for wind farms. Ukip is the only party putting that

policy forward. We will put more money into the pockets of working

people, that is what we are about. Looking at the council elections, we

saw the acting chair or former acting chair, saying he thinks the

party in Wales is unravelling but he doesn't think the campaign will get

off the ground. Is that a fair reflection? I know Chris Smart very

well. He left in frustration because of internal rows over Arron Banks.

He's no longer remember of Ukip. I think under Paul Nuttall's

leadership we will refocus our attention on local issues, Welsh

issues in Wales. Paul Nuttall said you're put in place a coordinator

for local elections. Has that happened? Well, there will be

nationally a coordinator for local elections in the UK. In Wales, Ukip

is a small party, in terms of membership. Each branch will be

putting up candidates in their own local government area, but there

won't be any central direction, as such, although we will give them

every possible assistance we can. Is there a danger you won't get very

many candidates, therefore not much support? And what will happen when

Ukip is Brexit is dwindled into irrelevance? Our party membership is

keeping up. We're still at the same point in the polls as we were in

general collection. So, your stagnating. We've concentrated all

our efforts on winning the referendum, which we did. We

wouldn't have won without Ukip. And we have four years between now and

the next local elections, three years until the general election. So

there is lots of work for us to do, and we will repair the deficiencies

of the past in terms of organisation in Wales. The other political

parties in Wales have come together to put out a statement opposing

racism in the upcoming elections. You haven't signed up to that. Why

is that? We wanted to add a paragraph. The letter as Rafter by

the level government read as though people were concerned about

immigration, therefore they were racist. The majority of those people

are not racist, and we wanted to put in a paragraph to reflect that only

refused to do so, so we put out our own statement. They say it reflects

badly on the party. Was it a stitch up? It reflects badly on the Labour

government in Wales which refuses to accept that uncontrolled immigration

has had a disastrous effect on people with low wage incomes and

Ukip will stand up for them! Brexit may be dominating

the headlines, but in a matter of weeks we'll be going into another

round of local elections in Wales. Before the political parties

define their campaign themes, there's time to consider how local

government - the councils who deliver public services -

should be reformed. It's been three years

since the Williams Commission recommended cutting the number

of councils in Wales First Minister Carwyn Jones said

at the time, "The status Since then, proposals

for mergers have come and gone, and there's been a local government

bill, but still no clarity on what the future of local

government will look like. Councils are responsible for the

services that impact on our daily lives. From roads to rubbish. In

recent years, they've been under considerable financial strain. It's

never been as bad as it is now. And none of us came into politics to cut

things, to close things. It is a completely new ball game. Councils

used to be about providing services, building leisure centres, building

homes for elderly and infirm, really putting that fabric into society.

Well, we haven't been able to do that for a very long time. It has

been a long and bumpy road. While these cuts have been implemented,

there is the additional confusion of local government reform. There's

never a good time to do local government reorganisation. If you

could have been a worse time, it would be been hard. We've had

responses of budget cuts and then have these discussions which caused

uncertainty in the sectors of the last few years has been a very poor

time to have those discussions about reorganisation. It's been like a

fairground ride. The continual shifting sands have meant we haven't

been able to look long-term, we haven't been able to look as

strategically as we have done. The killings with -- beginning with the

Williams Commission which called for ten, 11 or 12 authorities in Wales,

attempts by the Welsh government to drive through change have frequently

been frustrated. First, there were voluntary mergers, a few councils

propose joining forces with their neighbours, only to have their

proposals thrown out by the Welsh government. Then another diversion.

The public services Minister at the time attempted to propose change

with forced mergers which turned out to be a dead-end. Over the border,

the UK government decided reorganisation was wasteful, and a

pointless, expensive exercise. We've wasted three years in Wales

discussing structures and merging of authorities said there has been a

waste of time and effort. We now need to look forward to designing

structures will be the pit-mac and place for many years. So when you

strategy. As listening exercise with councils across Wales. The idea is

to keep the 22 local authorities but design ways to deliver key services

on a regional basis. Sometimes, you can get caught up in a conversation

that takes you down a dead-end, and I think that what has happened

previously. The journey has moved on. And we're going to make it work.

It seems Welsh councils are much happier with the new approach but

will it be radical enough to put public services on a sustainable

footing? Either way, there is still a very long road ahead. It's taken

many years of discussion and thousands of pages to get to the

point now where we're not still clear how authorities will work

together on key services. There are some areas where the Welsh

government dictated this is where you have to work together, other

areas are open for discussion. We could have got to this point a

number of years ago. I'll be discussing the way forward

with local government consultant Jeff Jones

and Professor Catherine the University of South Wales,

and local government consultant and former

council leader Jeff Jones. We could have been at this .3 years

ago. Has it been a waste of time? Quite possibly and we've spent a

long time talking about local government and its functions and we

have possibly wasted three years but who knows, we are where we are,

there's a new White Paper, local authorities are being consulted,

there is a new agenda around democracy and this is the first time

we have seen what local government is supposed to be about what it is

going to be about in the future. There is a regional agenda pushed in

this White Paper which is new and different. We've spent so often

talking about reorganisation but people at home will care nothing

more than getting bins picked up, leisure centres etc. It's difficult

and what people forget is local government doesn't raise a great

deal of money. How does this corporation work? If you set how can

local government improve your services, the Assembly needs more

money, where does it get it from? Westminster. We have Brexit. Even

without Brexit, the Tory government wants to reduce the public sector by

36%. What worries me is you look at the long-term economic forecast

within each local authority and there are some pretty awful cuts

coming after next May's election. The reorganisation does not address

that. That's a bleak outlook. Is there anything that working together

and saving some money, will it impact on this? You look at 1996

when these authorities will put in place, that a gender is still there.

Under this White Paper, authorities can merge if it works for the

citizen. Those democratic ideas still exist. There's a regional

agenda, and working together, health and social care are going to be

working together under the regional partnership boards, the educational

consortia, so there is an attempt to regionalise things and the issue for

me how does that pan out in terms of governance? Will there be the

appropriate governance structures for those? Isn't there a problem of

accountability? When we look at the councils coming together and working

to regional levels, the question I put to the local government

secretary in November last year was if my school is being closed but my

council has merged with the next three neighbouring councils, who do

I hold to account? Who do I vote out? And there isn't an answer, is

there? There is the problem of disillusionment. If your local

councillor and someone says will you fight to keep the school open? They

say it isn't anything to do with them. This is organiser to regional

level. The result will then be you have fragmentation of politics,

which we have seen in May. Groups are being set up in various

authorities, not based on the critical parties but on localities.

It is identity politics coming back into government. The problem is

trying to balance that lack of accountability or loss of

accountability with the savings and the positive element. It is a

difficult one for councils. The themes in the White Paper about

sustainability, integration of services, it is about working

together for the future, and the paper is titled resilience and

renewed local government, but it is renewed public services. What it

builds and there is the participation of the citizen much

more in developing and building their areas. Councils are being

renewed. One of the other aspect of this White Paper that hasn't been

mentioned is that councils can decide whether they want to continue

with the system in place for 20 years, which is a cabinet system or

go back to the committee system. Local authorities in Wales and

councillors understood that system so there is a change for people

along the way. Is there another issue here that the Local Government

Association in Wales is saying over the next decade or so social care

will double in terms of cost and any savings or changes will be dwarfed

by that. Is that the main problem? We are living in an ageing

population. I'll be using social care in the future. The problem is

local government is the agency, along with the health boards that

deliver social care. At the end of the day, they are an agency on

behalf of what? You need the money, and my theory is and I've said this

previously is that social care is a national issue. You've got to get

the finance right. That might mean we all have to pay more into social

care but to actually say it's up to the local government or Assembly, it

is up to all of us to provide a social care future. Plenty did -- to

discuss consomme. Thank you both. If you'd like to get in touch

with us about what's been discussed tonight,

or anything else, email us at [email protected],

or follow us on social media, Rhod Gilbert's enrolled

in building school. That's really good

for the first attempt. Not going to cry, are you?

Oh...I'm welling up. But will he survive on

a real building site? Do you kick people off

pretty quickly if they're not up to scratch?

Er, yes, we do, yeah. Pressure's on.

Right, get the bucket.