Election Special: Brexit The Wales Report


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Election Special: Brexit

As voters head towards the polls on 8 June, Huw Edwards examines the consequences and implications of Brexit for Wales.


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In four weeks' time, voters will take part

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in the general election of 2017 - the election that was

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And casting a long shadow over the entire campaign

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So tonight we start our election debates with a special edition

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on the biggest political issue of our time.

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So there are four weeks to go until election day on June 8th,

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an election that's been called by Theresa May three years ahead

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of the legal requirement because she says she needs

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a strong mandate in the Brexit process ahead.

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No general election should be about just one issue -

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it's not a referendum, after all - and there are so many

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challenges facing Wales and the UK beyond the Brexit question.

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But there's no escaping the immediacy of the

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The clock is ticking on the Article 50 process.

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So for the first of our election editions, we'll explore the Brexit

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Over the next few weeks we'll also be examining other key issues

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in a series of special programmes culminating in a live leaders

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If you'd like to be in the audience then please get in touch.

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Before I introduce my guests this evening, let's hear

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from some Welsh voters, and we've been speaking to some

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in Blaenau Gwent which recorded one of the biggest Leave

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I don't think Wales's voice is going to be heard but I do think there are

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issues. Especially in this area. We have had a lot of European funding

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in this area which is going to stop. And I have heard nobody saying they

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are going to replace it with anything else. I would have to say,

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I did vote to leave because I could see benefits of leaving. I think

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it's taking far too long, people are stretching it out far too far and

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there is obviously the reason for it. It seems that Britain is

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expected to pave a large amount to leave than they were in the

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beginning -- expected to pay. I always feel Waleed is the poor

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relative and it's about time we spoke up as most people. -- Wales is

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the poor relative. I . -- I voted Tuesday. If it goes

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successfully I will put my hand up and say, you were right and I was

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wrong but at the moment they are so busy squabbling with each other.

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Instead of saying, sit down at the table, the

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-- doesn't matter if it is Ukip, Labour, but find the best way

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forward for everybody concerned. We should have our own opinions and our

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own way of ruling our country and not allow the rest of Europe to

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control what we do. With this toing and froing from all parties,

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Conservatives, Labour, liberals, whatever it is, I'm in the middle. I

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don't know which way to go but at the end of the day the people who

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have voted for Brexit. I don't see the point in voting really because

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nothing ever goes our way anyway so what's the point in voting if stuff

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that we don't want happens? Our thanks to the people of Blaenau

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Gwent for talking to us this week. We asked the five main parties

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in Wales to nominate a representative for the programme

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and they are, for the Labour For the Liberal Democrats,

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Eluned Parrott. And if you want to join

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the debate on social media You can add your comments as we go

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along. Thank you for joining us, we have a lot of ground to cover. I

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want to start with a brief comment from all of you on the Prime

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Minister's own statement, the principle that informs the approach

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to Brexit when she said famously, no deal is better than a bad deal.

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However we want to define a bad deal, we will come onto that, but as

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a printable, is it right? Absolutely right that she has gone into the

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negotiation making it clear to the EU but if they don't want to deliver

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access to the single market, we will pull out and continue to trade with

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Europe and the rest of the world under WTO ruled and it would be

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ludicrous going into a negotiation not making that clear otherwise we

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will not get a deal in the first place. Nobly believes that Britain

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actually means that. -- nobody believes. If we end a negotiation

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with the consequence of which will be crashing our economy with

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devastating effect on jobs and the standard of living, we should not be

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signing up to the deal. We should continue to negotiate until we get

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the best deal not just for Britain, but we don't want a reduction in the

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kind of support we have seen coming from Europe to Wales specifically

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all stock we will try to pick up on all of that. The principal, no deal

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better than a bad deal? I think it's absolutely crazy and recklessly

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irresponsible. The truth is that to crash out of the European Union

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without the legal and financial ends tied together will leave us in a

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chaotic situation where we don't know what we are faced with in the

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future. We need to have some form of deal, we need to have some kind of

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certainty for our business is otherwise the economic damage to the

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economy will be catastrophic. Your point on the principle? To echo what

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she is saying, I think it shows she is weak and unstable in her attitude

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toward negotiations. It is important to define and consider what a bad

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Brexit might mean and the different kinds of bad, what she might

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continue to be a good Brexit I fear could be bad for Wales. We need to

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be in a position where we work toward a departure from the EU which

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genuinely reflect the different needs of the different parts of the

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UK. Wales being a net exporter, for example, we should be able to

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rubber-stamp bad deal and that is where I hope Plaid Cymru we will

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defend Wales in that respect. I had hoped that in the past year it would

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not have been a wasted year as it appears to be now because

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negotiations have not taken place really. I feel in this way that

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Theresa May has failed us. I want the best deal we can have for the UK

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and obviously for Wales. I'm Welsh through and through and I want us to

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see -- I want to see us doing well but particularly as I'm in the

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assembly, devolved powers are obviously paramount important and I

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want the best deal with tariff free access to the single market. Just to

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reinforce, no deal would be better than a bad deal. Do you agree with

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that? No, I want a positive deal for Wales and the UK. If it was a bad

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deal... You can't have no deal and a bad deal, there is somewhere in

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between which will benefit Wales and the UK. Within those areas and I

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will pick up on some of those points, 60% of Welsh exports

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currently go to the EU, a very big figure and bigger than other parts

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of the UK. Looking at our access to the single market, it has clearly

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been important to our economic well-being so, David, if that access

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is no longer there, what does it mean for Wales? The access will be

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there because there is a fundamental mistake people are making which is

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to think that if we walk away without any sort of deal we won't be

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able to trade with France or Germany any more and that's not correct. It

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depends on the deal. It doesn't, we don't have a deal with America, we

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trade with them, we trade with any country in world under WTO rules. We

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can carry on trading with EU countries without a deal because

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they cannot put up a protective wall against us. We will trade with them

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but under WTO rules which means we pay a tariff. The general tariffs we

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would pay would be less than as a percentage than the amount that

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sterling has fallen. Even if we don't have a deal, our goods would

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still be more competitive than they were before the vote. This is where

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we come to the nitty-gritty, how much would those tariffs become for

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example, on agriculture food products? We're looking at possible

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tariffs of 40%. What do the food producers and farmers in your

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constituency of that? We can't think no deal is an option. The tariff

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thing is such a big issue because until we know what you're talking

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about... I'm glad we've moved on and we've accepted we can trade without

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a deal. Thank you, that's exactly the point. Now we have established

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point that anybody can trade with anybody, we can talk about tariffs.

:09:54.:09:57.

Let's talk about that because the average tariff is about 6% and on

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industrial goods and that'll do think sometimes lower. There are

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certain agricultural areas, particularly with lamb, where it is

:10:07.:10:10.

higher, even higher than 50%. But the point is that we export a lot of

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lamb to the European Union, about a third I think, and it is significant

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but we import far more from the European Union in agricultural goods

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than we export. That is by measure of about three to one. So while

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there are risks to the lamb sector, other sectors will do very well. We

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need to ensure that lamb farmers are using the extra tariff money we

:10:41.:10:43.

would be getting when you try to export to us. The truth is that it

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is not about average tariffs being local is about specific tariffs in

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areas that are strategically important to the Welsh economy.

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Welsh farming industry cannot take a hit from the European Union export

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market when its produce is suddenly 50% more expensive. So what is the

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answer? That we had to say straightaway that lamb is a problem,

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an issue, because the tariffs are very high and we export about a

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third of our lamb to the EU. Let's not pretend we will not be able to

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trade with Europe, we have established that, and let's not

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pretend that tariffs are very high because generally they are below

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10%. The areas where there is a problem like lamb, we have to be

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aware of that and be ready to put in place... If I am a Welsh farmer in

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this area, you acknowledge it is a problem, that is not much comfort to

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me. It is more comfort than saying we cannot trade with the EU. What is

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clear is that the Tories have admitted it that they are prepared

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to sacrifice the agricultural community on the altar of Brexit.

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That's not true. Going beyond tariffs, it is about the paperwork

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involved also in new cross from one border to another. It is absolutely

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true. The ports in Wales, people are telling me that if we crashed out of

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the customs union as well, we will have to check all the goods going

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out, all the people coming in, all of that requires a huge amount of

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time and effort and resources and will slow down the whole process.

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Not just for agriculture but also for the supply chains which exist

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within Wales. It is not just about the money, is about timing.

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One more point. The other point. You keep on arguing this. It's

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fascinating. That, oh, they trade with us. They do trade with us, but

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48% of the UK's trade is with them. Only 8% is the maximum of any

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country in the EU. So we will suffer a huge amount more than they will.

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You have to remember that the European Union is a political

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construct, it's not just an economic one. In the same way as the people

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in this country voted on political reasons for leaving the EU, they

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will be supporting the EU for political reasons as well. It's not

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just all about the economy. Caroline. This is all about

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successful negotiations because, at the moment, we have the EU has a

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50-60 billion annual surplus with the UK. All right. So when we send -

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when we deal with Germany and purchase car there is is ?20 billion

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surplus. The negotiations that are taking place between the UK and the

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EU is in the interests, for us, to strike a deal together for all the

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economies in the EU and worldwide. Toll succeed because it's a two-way

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thing. Despite the imbalance that she was talking about this? I'm talk

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about striking a deal with everyone. We import German cars, ?20 billion

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surplus. They will lose far, far less than us. This is the question

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that you failed to address, time and time again, you have to understand

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that the political construct and the one thing that Theresa May has

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succeeded in doing is to unite Europe. To unite Europe. Toll say -

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we're all going to come together and fight this one thing. Yeah. They are

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certainly not united about that. Let's park the dynamics and strategy

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at the minute. It has to be about successful negotiations because

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there are things we apparently would lose on, but would gain on in other

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areas. We have to strike a balance and we want tariff-free access to

:14:49.:14:51.

the single market. We have now established that we will be able to

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trade with the rest of the European Union. So it was incorrect - At

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cost. Because we began this discussion saying we wouldn't be

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able to trade with - I never said that. We have established that. We

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will be looking Atta ifs, if we trade under WTO rules. Most of us, I

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think we are actually agreed, we would rather have access to the

:15:15.:15:17.

single market. We would rather have a deal. So the approach that Theresa

:15:18.:15:20.

May has adoptside to sit down and say - we want to have single market

:15:21.:15:25.

access deal, which will allow you to sell your cars and wine to us while

:15:26.:15:30.

we sell our goods to you if we don't get one we will walk away. Jeremy

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Corbyn's approach is we want single market access deal, if we don't get

:15:35.:15:38.

one we might just stay in. They want us to stay in. Guess what, they will

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not give us a deal if we sit down and take that attitude. Everyone

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should be supporting Theresa May if she want a that deal. This year

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could have been more productively spent by the Prime Minister. You

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think it's been wasted year? I do. I want people's concerns to be

:15:57.:16:00.

minimal. Instead of that - Will is a process. You can't just do it? She

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had the mandate from the people of Wales, from the people, the mandate

:16:05.:16:08.

from the House of Commons and Lords this election is totally

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unnecessary. I want to talk to you - It's worse than a wasted year

:16:12.:16:20.

because what Theresa May has done by her sabre-rattling her antagonism is

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destroyed any good faith between the two negotiating parties and made all

:16:25.:16:28.

of those talks - You mean in the statement in Downing Street she

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made? The statement in Downing Street but month after month what

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we've heard is, time and time again, a lack of respect. What we have to

:16:35.:16:40.

do is build a rapport. You get a lack of respect in the European

:16:41.:16:43.

Union - To be able to negotiate on a fairway. The point has been made.

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Can I bring it back to what we are hopefully meant to be talking about

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here, which is the affect of all of this on Wales. It's defending

:16:52.:16:57.

Wales's interest. I thought it was all in the Wales context myself. I

:16:58.:17:03.

accept - We are part of the UK. When you are talking about the EU being

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net exporters to Britain, let us concentrate here, as Huw said at the

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outset, on Wales being a net exporter to the EU, for example,

:17:14.:17:19.

Wales being more of a beneficiary of European funding, for example, than

:17:20.:17:22.

the rest of the EU. Those specific elements that we need to take to the

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table in negotiations on leaving the EU that have Welsh interests at

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heart. We had those people in Blaenau Gwent, it's something I hear

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time and time again. Nobody is listening to us here in Wales.s I

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feel that. We need to make sure that our voice is heard. OK. Or our

:17:40.:17:45.

interests will be ignored. Caroline, seriously, if we keep on this we

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won't get anywhere. OK. Tens of thousands of EU nationals in Wales

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and, you know, that is clearly a block of people whose rights have to

:17:57.:17:58.

be addressed. British people in other parts of the EU, their rights,

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too. I'm putting that in the context of the importance of freedom of

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movement as well given that is one of the main planks of our deal, in

:18:07.:18:11.

terms of the single market. On freedom of movement has Plaid Cymru

:18:12.:18:15.

changed its tune? We are very clear that we need workers from across the

:18:16.:18:22.

EU and beyond to keep our public services afloat. To help in our

:18:23.:18:28.

economy in many, many ways and the agriculture sector and the

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hospitality sector, for example. We need to be able, in the post-EU

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world to, to have our say here in Wales on the kinds of... On the kind

:18:38.:18:41.

of immigration that will help us here in Wales. I've heard what

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people have said about wanting to take back control. One of those

:18:46.:18:48.

elements of control that I think we can have, if we put defending Wales

:18:49.:18:54.

at the heart of our thinking, is to have, for example, regional visas.

:18:55.:19:00.

We can say we need those workers in these sector. How practical is that?

:19:01.:19:06.

It works in Canada. A process by which people a visa to work in the

:19:07.:19:11.

UK. Here in Wales, for example the health service. We can attract those

:19:12.:19:15.

people. Would the Lib Dems welcome that policy? I think it's a

:19:16.:19:19.

bureaucratic nightmare waiting to happen. . Need free movement of

:19:20.:19:23.

people between Europe and Britain. Tens of thousands of our NHS workers

:19:24.:19:28.

here in Wales are EU nationals or from other parts of the world. We

:19:29.:19:32.

need them to keep our services running. In addition to that, they

:19:33.:19:35.

are economically important to us as well. Our universities, that free

:19:36.:19:41.

exchange of ideas, the things that create wealth for Wales and create

:19:42.:19:44.

jobs for Wales they are dependent on our ability to be able to I a tract

:19:45.:19:49.

the best minds to Wales and for our children and our children's children

:19:50.:19:52.

to have the aspiration to be able to move around Europe and go elsewhere,

:19:53.:19:57.

too. We have to remember the rights of EU citizens but British citizens

:19:58.:20:01.

in Europe as well. Both of those things are incredibly important. On

:20:02.:20:03.

the need question, this is the crucial thing. Where we are

:20:04.:20:07.

dependent, like the health service, dependent on people to come here and

:20:08.:20:10.

work and offer their services, what is your thought there on freedom of

:20:11.:20:15.

movement? We want social cohesion to work and, in the interests of Wales

:20:16.:20:22.

and the UK as a whole, we feel that immigration has to be controlled and

:20:23.:20:26.

it has to be on a skills need basis. Obviously, if someone has a skill

:20:27.:20:32.

that we need, then that person has access here. But it has to be an a

:20:33.:20:36.

fair system and a points system he. We have to ensure that, for example,

:20:37.:20:41.

in nursing, that we give our own people that want to be nurses,

:20:42.:20:46.

people from Wales, a fair crack of the whip really and don't turn them

:20:47.:20:49.

away. When we bring people in, we still have to train them. Don't

:20:50.:20:55.

forget we are taking people from countries that - Some people come

:20:56.:21:00.

ready trained? They have to be trained to understand the thinking

:21:01.:21:04.

of the UK and the way in which the UK operates. David, it's whether you

:21:05.:21:10.

think that controlling freedom of movement is a price worth paying for

:21:11.:21:15.

continued access in some form to the market or where do you see the

:21:16.:21:19.

importance of controlling freedom of movement in this debate? Well, if

:21:20.:21:24.

you are talking about movement nobody is suggesting anyone won't be

:21:25.:21:28.

able to move around. Freedom of movement is a technical phrase?

:21:29.:21:31.

Immigration is far too high at the moment, and needs to come down.

:21:32.:21:37.

You've had a lot long time to sort it out. They claim benefits for

:21:38.:21:42.

children who don't live here and people who come for a short time and

:21:43.:21:45.

work and can claim benefits. Outside of the EU? I don't think it's

:21:46.:21:49.

acceptable you can come over here, work for a few months and be able to

:21:50.:21:52.

claim all sorts of benefits. That's unacceptable. Having said that, my

:21:53.:21:59.

wife is Hungarian, an EU citizen Hungary is still in the EU. She is a

:22:00.:22:04.

Hungarian citizen she doesn't have a British passport. There is no threat

:22:05.:22:10.

whatsoever to law abiding, hard-working Polish, hung garan and

:22:11.:22:15.

other EU citizens who come here to work. These scare stories... This is

:22:16.:22:22.

an important point. My wife doesn't need a British passport, she doesn't

:22:23.:22:29.

need one - Lots of your colleagues in Government have not offered, in

:22:30.:22:34.

those specific terms - Too many scare stories have been put out

:22:35.:22:39.

there. She's not given that assurance. She wants to protect the

:22:40.:22:44.

rights of British citizens in other parts of the European Union. She has

:22:45.:22:48.

offered to have a negotiation with the rest of the EU about that before

:22:49.:22:53.

any discussions start about Brexit. The negotiation means nothing is

:22:54.:22:55.

certain. That is the point of a negotiation. Common sense tells us

:22:56.:22:59.

all there is no way that we're going to start rounding up Polish or other

:23:00.:23:05.

EU citizens - It's a question of people's rights. Whether they have

:23:06.:23:09.

them. Whether they can stay or not. We have to understand is that

:23:10.:23:14.

economically migrants from the EU contribute far, far more than they

:23:15.:23:19.

take out across the United Kingdom they contribute ?6 billion, which is

:23:20.:23:23.

what is paying for people's pensions and schools and hospitals. So you

:23:24.:23:27.

can stop them if you want, there will be consequences to that. You

:23:28.:23:32.

need to be honest with the public about the consequences. Are you

:23:33.:23:35.

saying my wife will get thrown out. It's rubbish. You have given a

:23:36.:23:39.

guarantee that Theresa May has failed to give. I would like to say

:23:40.:23:45.

David has come out with immigration is too high. Since 2010 Theresa May

:23:46.:23:50.

has promised to bring, with Cameron, to bring the levels down to tens of

:23:51.:23:55.

thousands of people per year. Instead of that, two million people

:23:56.:24:00.

since 2010 have entered. That commitment is still there? We can't

:24:01.:24:03.

control incompetent immigration from within the European Union until we

:24:04.:24:07.

leave. You can control it from outside, you aren't doing that. Let

:24:08.:24:14.

David answer. I'm sure if the Labour Party would like to work with us to

:24:15.:24:18.

bring about legislation that prevents some of the widespread

:24:19.:24:22.

abuses going on at the moment. You had plenty of time to sort it out,

:24:23.:24:28.

you haven't done it. David Davies is talking about scare stories about

:24:29.:24:31.

people being thrown out of the UK. His party is responsible for the

:24:32.:24:37.

scare stories based on no evidence about the negativity effects that

:24:38.:24:41.

these immigration from the EU have when they are clearly net

:24:42.:24:43.

contributors to our economy. One thing - We don't know that for sure,

:24:44.:24:50.

actually. Yes, we do. No, we don't. If I could just continue. Today the

:24:51.:24:57.

OBR had a report talking about the value of migrants to the economy.

:24:58.:25:00.

Skwloo r What people tend to do is look at the fact that the majority

:25:01.:25:06.

of EU workers are paying taxes. They don't cost the benefits, not

:25:07.:25:11.

necessarily employment benefits, the cost of social housing, education

:25:12.:25:17.

and so on. It's never been done. As Plaid Cymru's Shadow Health

:25:18.:25:20.

Secretary, we need people from the rest of the EU to work in our public

:25:21.:25:28.

services. Will we be able to retain those EU citizens currently working

:25:29.:25:31.

in the NHS now. I hope so. I can't imagine a situation where they would

:25:32.:25:39.

be rounded up, to use your words. Why No question. How many people out

:25:40.:25:43.

there who might have considered working in Wales to help us deliver

:25:44.:25:46.

the health service will not now be coming? We can't know about that.

:25:47.:25:50.

Your thoughts? What is really sad in all of this is that there are human

:25:51.:25:55.

beings here, individual human beings whose own status feels threatened.

:25:56.:26:00.

People who are - they are doctors, nurses, translators. They are people

:26:01.:26:05.

working in really useful jobs for our society who feel like they are

:26:06.:26:10.

not wanted. Who feel like, regardless of the negotiations that

:26:11.:26:13.

are yet to take place, that something has changed in this last

:26:14.:26:17.

year. Suddenly, they are no longer wanted. Suddenly - This is not true.

:26:18.:26:25.

Why do you say that? I know loads of Eastern Europeans, I'm married to

:26:26.:26:29.

one. They don't feel that. They feel threatened they are told by

:26:30.:26:33.

reluctant remainers there is a threat to their livelihood. There's

:26:34.:26:37.

not. I met a French woman who is teaching in a London school the

:26:38.:26:41.

other day, she has been here for 12 years she says very clearly - I'm

:26:42.:26:46.

scared about whether I will be able to stay or not. Is she has probably

:26:47.:26:52.

been watching the BBC. We can trade cheap jokes all night, we can. Out

:26:53.:26:56.

of respect to viewers, people do say that. It's easy to just dismiss it?

:26:57.:27:01.

As someone who has been a member of Parliament for many years there is

:27:02.:27:07.

no threat whatsoever to hard-working, law abiding citizens

:27:08.:27:13.

to anybody Testimonisome not giving that guarantee. You are not the

:27:14.:27:16.

Prime Minister. She should be giving it and she's not doing it. She has

:27:17.:27:20.

made that clear. She has not. People are worried because the Prime

:27:21.:27:23.

Minister of this country has not given us the assurance we needed

:27:24.:27:26.

that they are going to be able to stay. We have every confidence that

:27:27.:27:30.

Theresa May is - You made the point very clear. Two billion give or take

:27:31.:27:37.

in structural funds Wales has benefitted from that. 2014 the

:27:38.:27:43.

figures we have been able to analyse in detail, Wales net beneficiary of

:27:44.:27:47.

funds the only bit of the UK ?250 million. That's the kind of broad

:27:48.:27:52.

picture. To what extent is that in danger? To what extent can Wales be

:27:53.:27:58.

sure, as was said in a studio similar to this last year, that

:27:59.:28:03.

Wales would not be at lost, he was clear about it. Unequivocal

:28:04.:28:10.

actually. David will come last. I want everyone to make their point.

:28:11.:28:13.

Eluned Parrott your thoughts on Wales's access to the money that's

:28:14.:28:17.

been actually rather important to investing in communities?

:28:18.:28:22.

Our structural funds are crucial to Wales, half of our apprenticeships

:28:23.:28:28.

are funded by EU money and a lot of the infrastructure projects we have

:28:29.:28:34.

seen develop in the valleys areas and in Westworld in particular, what

:28:35.:28:38.

we really need to see from Theresa May is an assurance that that money

:28:39.:28:43.

will continue to come. And actually, agricultural funding as well.

:28:44.:28:49.

Otherwise we have a real hole in the budget for Wales for funding some

:28:50.:28:52.

crucial improvements for our poorest and most deprived communities. One

:28:53.:28:57.

of the elements of the bad Brexit that I fear is being brewed up by

:28:58.:29:02.

the Conservatives at Westminster as opposed to the best deal we could

:29:03.:29:08.

have, we will be seeking is not just in relation to the negotiations with

:29:09.:29:12.

the European Union but also the internal discussions within the UK,

:29:13.:29:16.

the kind of guarantees of what happens to funding for example or

:29:17.:29:22.

Common Agricultural Policy, support for farmers. I am sure we will get a

:29:23.:29:27.

guarantee from David Davis as he has given a guarantee on immigration

:29:28.:29:30.

that the funding will come. He is not in a position to give that

:29:31.:29:35.

guarantee. We know for example that when it comes to not just money but

:29:36.:29:42.

the powers on how to spend it, UK Conservatives are planning to hold

:29:43.:29:45.

those powers when they come back from Brussels in Westminster until

:29:46.:29:49.

such a time as they can be divvied out to the nations. I don't accept

:29:50.:29:54.

that that is a rock-solid pledge that we need here in Wales to defend

:29:55.:30:01.

our interests as a nation. This was put to Parliament, it was voted down

:30:02.:30:07.

after Plaid Cymru suggested it, let's have a guarantee on future

:30:08.:30:10.

funding, we have not had that. I don't blame those people in Blaenau

:30:11.:30:14.

Gwent for thinking nobody is listening to us. I think what is

:30:15.:30:22.

important is that people voted for Brexit on the basis of those

:30:23.:30:26.

assurances. I would like to see in the Tory manifesto those assurances

:30:27.:30:33.

being written into a manifesto. I'm very confident that in terms of what

:30:34.:30:37.

should be coming to Wales that we may see that covered in the Labour

:30:38.:30:43.

manifesto. I would like to challenge David Davies to make that commitment

:30:44.:30:45.

today that it will also be in the Tory manifesto. What is important is

:30:46.:30:51.

it that, you are the people who make those promises, you have to fulfil

:30:52.:30:54.

them. The confident in politician and it all already at a low and if

:30:55.:31:00.

people were duped into Brexit on the basis of promises that will not be

:31:01.:31:04.

carried out, I think it is a real problem for politics and all of a

:31:05.:31:09.

sudden the future. You will get your child in a second, David. Caroline,

:31:10.:31:12.

a thought about what could happen to money that has been valuable to

:31:13.:31:18.

Wales in the past -- you will get your chance. This is where

:31:19.:31:21.

collaboration is of paramount importance, we all have our

:31:22.:31:23.

political differences but it is about sitting at a table and working

:31:24.:31:28.

collaboratively with every party to ensure that the best deal for Wales

:31:29.:31:34.

is available, working out what we need for Wales and sitting round the

:31:35.:31:38.

table and discussing it. I would like to see an array of MPs elected

:31:39.:31:48.

in this collection from various parties so we can truly hold the

:31:49.:31:52.

government to account. Holding to account is one thing, if we are no

:31:53.:31:56.

longer in the EU at the end of the Brexiters process and don't have

:31:57.:31:59.

access to these funds that I mentioned, the 2 billion, what is

:32:00.:32:04.

your answer to the people who will say, where will we get that support

:32:05.:32:08.

in the future? Will Westminster deliver that? The money we save from

:32:09.:32:13.

being members in the EU will come back to the Westminster government

:32:14.:32:21.

and it is up to us to ensure that Wales gets this deal, the best deal

:32:22.:32:25.

for our farmers, for agriculture, for our investment. I live in one of

:32:26.:32:30.

the poorest regions in Aberavon and it is of paramount importance to me

:32:31.:32:33.

to ensure that the people of Wales do not suffer and that Brexit is

:32:34.:32:38.

going to be a positive thing as opposed to negative. Caroline is

:32:39.:32:42.

framing it in terms of what might be achieved if people work together

:32:43.:32:47.

which clearly isn't the same as that the government saying don't worry,

:32:48.:32:50.

you're not going to be at a loss, any funding you may have lost

:32:51.:32:54.

because of our ending of membership will be made up. Wales is a net

:32:55.:33:00.

beneficiary, that will not change in terms of the kind of investment put

:33:01.:33:03.

into communities. What is the answer? First of all the government

:33:04.:33:08.

has already given these guarantees, on agriculture for example. We pay

:33:09.:33:15.

?18 billion a year into the EU, we get about 9 billion back. We will

:33:16.:33:20.

not only be able to continue funding all of the European projects that

:33:21.:33:23.

are currently funded but we will have a lot more money to put more

:33:24.:33:26.

money in. How much more will come to Wales? I don't know. One of the

:33:27.:33:37.

issues, I can't give that... I can say with absolute certainty because

:33:38.:33:40.

the ministers are already confirmed this, they will continue the funding

:33:41.:33:43.

at the same levels. What happens to be extra money, I don't know. It

:33:44.:33:51.

will depend on if we have do pace thing to get access to the single

:33:52.:33:54.

market. The ministers have been clear about that. There is a

:33:55.:33:58.

question as to how much the those powers get devolved to the Welsh

:33:59.:34:01.

Assembly and how we distribute it. Do we give out a blank cheque? Do we

:34:02.:34:06.

maintain some similar pattern to what we have at the moment where

:34:07.:34:09.

Brussels decides things and the nation state divvy it out and

:34:10.:34:15.

maintain the day-to-day running of the scheme? Do we move that to

:34:16.:34:21.

London, to the nation states? I think it will probably be

:34:22.:34:25.

impractical to have Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales

:34:26.:34:28.

all doing slightly different things. Isn't that devolution? With the

:34:29.:34:34.

subsidy payments. That is the feeling that the NFU and the F2

:34:35.:34:43.

watts at as well. -- and the FUW. You can't have a situation where

:34:44.:34:49.

markets are being distorted. You wouldn't want Nicola Sturgeon giving

:34:50.:34:54.

huge amount to support Scottish beef market if Wales was putting money

:34:55.:34:56.

elsewhere, you don't want market distortion. You will get what we

:34:57.:35:02.

already have now. That is the guarantee? The government have been

:35:03.:35:06.

clear that no powers will be taken away. To be clear, we will come to

:35:07.:35:12.

powers in a moment, with talking cash. Hard cash. Will that be in

:35:13.:35:19.

your manifesto? I don't write the manifesto. You keep on ducking out.

:35:20.:35:27.

All these is your -- assurances that will not be in the manifesto. I have

:35:28.:35:31.

given you very straight answers. You're making it up, David. You're

:35:32.:35:36.

making up policy. Do you fully accept Brexit like your leader? I

:35:37.:35:43.

do. It is the good point to clarify, I'm bound to ask you as well because

:35:44.:35:50.

yesterday when Laura Coombs big interviewed Jeremy Corbyn there was

:35:51.:35:53.

a direct question which was, if there was a Labour government, are

:35:54.:35:57.

you saying that we definitely come out of the EU. He found it difficult

:35:58.:36:00.

to answer that question for some reason, he would not give that

:36:01.:36:04.

specific assurance. It was clarified later by his office. What is your

:36:05.:36:09.

take on that? We voted through the House of Commons and House of Lords,

:36:10.:36:13.

there was a Labour whip on it, the people have spoken and we will be

:36:14.:36:17.

coming out of the EU. Under a Labour government that is not in doubt? No.

:36:18.:36:23.

It is about the conditions. And hopefully Jeremy Corbyn will find it

:36:24.:36:27.

as easy to answer. The nice thing is that you are all offering me

:36:28.:36:31.

guarantees on all kinds of things! Powers are very important. We are in

:36:32.:36:37.

the last section of the programme, so your thoughts as a Liberal

:36:38.:36:40.

Democrat about not just access to very important funds we have had in

:36:41.:36:44.

the past but also what happens, as quite a few of you have raised,

:36:45.:36:48.

about the power was coming back from Brussels? Will they stick at

:36:49.:36:53.

Westminster for some of the bees and David has offered? What is your

:36:54.:36:58.

perspective? I think there is a very real danger that this negotiation

:36:59.:37:04.

process and the repatriation of powers might mask a power grab back

:37:05.:37:08.

to Westminster powers that are currently in Wales. There may be

:37:09.:37:12.

practical reasons why it is difficult to take powers, for

:37:13.:37:15.

example without the funding that comes with it, and the two things

:37:16.:37:18.

are linked. Looking at agriculture, we the powers over agriculture but

:37:19.:37:25.

if we don't get the funding to deliver the agricultural payments,

:37:26.:37:28.

that is a challenge. I want to come back to the point about ministerial

:37:29.:37:31.

assurances because they are not quite what David Davis has told you.

:37:32.:37:36.

Which ones? The assurance that funding will continue at the current

:37:37.:37:40.

level, that is not correct. The assurance that Wales has been given

:37:41.:37:45.

is that projects that are currently an already been signed off will be

:37:46.:37:50.

funded. There is absolutely no future assurance for any of the

:37:51.:37:53.

structural funds or indeed the agricultural funding that comes to

:37:54.:37:57.

Wales. None of that has been assured, it is a very small envelope

:37:58.:38:02.

of things which have been assured and there are still ongoing

:38:03.:38:06.

negotiations about a particular project which the Welsh government

:38:07.:38:09.

as I understand it is believed to have signed and that funding

:38:10.:38:12.

envelope is still under question in many cases. Please, don't give us

:38:13.:38:18.

assurances that are much more broadbrush than the reality. Have

:38:19.:38:24.

you been overpromising, David? No George used as was clear about this.

:38:25.:38:28.

I'm not the ministers is easy for everyone to say that I can't promise

:38:29.:38:31.

anything. I can tell you what has been said. I can assure you that all

:38:32.:38:37.

Conservative MPs as far as I'm aware have been clear that we want levels

:38:38.:38:41.

of funding to stay the same, we don't want to throw people out of

:38:42.:38:43.

the country, you won't find this stuff being said by any Conservative

:38:44.:38:47.

MP. We want a smooth transition, we have not wasted the last year. We

:38:48.:38:52.

could have left on the 24th of June, but instead the Conservative Party

:38:53.:38:56.

under David Cameron and Theresa May have said that we should not rush

:38:57.:38:59.

into this, to do in a responsible fashion. We may well spend another

:39:00.:39:08.

two years negotiating and it doesn't matter because we will do this in a

:39:09.:39:13.

smooth and sensible fashion. The powers that will be repatriated,

:39:14.:39:16.

what will happen and what should happen to them? It is a matter of

:39:17.:39:21.

taking back control. For those people who took that particular

:39:22.:39:25.

phrase seriously, wanting to repay trade powers from Brussels, I don't

:39:26.:39:30.

believe that they wanted to see those powers being brought back from

:39:31.:39:34.

Westminster and given to Westminster when those powers are over devolved

:39:35.:39:42.

areas already, agriculture, economic development and so on, they should

:39:43.:39:46.

be coming back to Wales. I think it is section 4.2 of the great repeal

:39:47.:39:51.

paper that says quite clearly that powers are in danger of going back

:39:52.:39:56.

to Westminster with them being divvied out later. I don't accept

:39:57.:40:00.

that the practical way forward. We have these two years, it was always

:40:01.:40:06.

going to be that, that was way the Article 15 process works, and we

:40:07.:40:11.

need an assurance that those powers, we need the working out of how they

:40:12.:40:15.

will come straight back to the communities in Wales. -- Article 50.

:40:16.:40:19.

Was Carwyn Jones right to talk about some sort of constitutional crisis,

:40:20.:40:27.

if this repatriation doesn't work in the way he considers is right for

:40:28.:40:31.

Wales? What you have to remember is when we went into the EU, devolution

:40:32.:40:36.

did not exist. We are coming out to a different world, you can't go back

:40:37.:40:39.

to what was there before. We do have a construct within the UK that

:40:40.:40:43.

allows for a sample for a single market within the United Kingdom

:40:44.:40:48.

that is not under the framework of the single market of Europe. We are

:40:49.:40:52.

going to have to create a new construct and that means we will

:40:53.:40:57.

have to have new kinds of relationships between the UK and we

:40:58.:41:02.

will have to formulate a system, a mechanism, which actually respect

:41:03.:41:07.

the devolution settlement that is already there are also so that he

:41:08.:41:12.

will not see London undercutting Wales if they want to subsidise. You

:41:13.:41:17.

have to make sure that the competition within the United

:41:18.:41:20.

Kingdom works. What is important is that those powers should come back

:41:21.:41:24.

to Wales first, where I think they legally should and RB based at the

:41:25.:41:27.

moment if the UK Government wants them, they have to take is on and

:41:28.:41:32.

take us to court. But it may be that after that we can pass back some

:41:33.:41:38.

powers to the UK but it will be about us volunteering those powers

:41:39.:41:41.

back from Wales. What kind of powers? For example, in the area of

:41:42.:41:46.

agriculture we have to understand that it would make sense to have

:41:47.:41:50.

some kind of system where there would be a mechanism where you could

:41:51.:41:53.

only subsidise to a certain extent and you are not undercutting each

:41:54.:41:58.

other. The Ukip view of that? Devolution is here to stay and the

:41:59.:42:01.

devolved powers we already have we want to ensure that we retain them.

:42:02.:42:07.

And obviously we want more powers, we want our tax raising element to

:42:08.:42:12.

go ahead as well because what I would like to see is a low tax

:42:13.:42:17.

economy in Wales so that we attract high earners to Wales so we can

:42:18.:42:22.

stimulant the economy. Obviously in the interests of the people of Wales

:42:23.:42:26.

it is important to make devolution work and to insist that we have all

:42:27.:42:32.

our devolved powers back from the UK Government. And the extra power is

:42:33.:42:35.

coming back from Brussels at the end of Brexit should all go to? Wales?

:42:36.:42:44.

All that Wales is capable of managing but devolution can increase

:42:45.:42:48.

as time goes on and I think that is what will happen. We are into the

:42:49.:42:52.

last minute and I will give David a final say on this. There are powers

:42:53.:42:56.

in Wales, in London, in Brussels, we will not take any powers away from

:42:57.:43:00.

Wales. I recognised the referendum result on the EU, but those powers

:43:01.:43:06.

that have come from Brussels, they will go back to London, we will not

:43:07.:43:10.

take anything away from Wales and at some point some will go to Wales.

:43:11.:43:14.

The Conservatives have devolved rather a lot of extra powers to

:43:15.:43:17.

Wales in the last few years and they will not hesitate to do it further.

:43:18.:43:22.

These are areas we already control. No you don't, Brussels controls them

:43:23.:43:25.

and they have come to London. They are only a bit further up the

:43:26.:43:30.

motorway now. What we have heard from Blaenau Gwent and other places

:43:31.:43:33.

that people feel disempowered and the purpose of devolution was to put

:43:34.:43:37.

power closer to the people. I want to see powers not only coming from

:43:38.:43:41.

Westminster to Wales but also from the what assembly to our local

:43:42.:43:45.

communities and authorities. This is a complex and long conversation but

:43:46.:43:50.

we need a fundamental rethink about how the balance of powers will lie

:43:51.:43:55.

between the nations of this country. Brussels has never willingly given

:43:56.:43:59.

away powers but London has also it is about working collaboratively,

:44:00.:44:02.

the UK Government with the Welsh government to ensure Wales

:44:03.:44:05.

progresses along with the rest of the UK. It has been a very

:44:06.:44:08.

interesting exchange! Thank you to all of you for coming in. Four weeks

:44:09.:44:14.

to go and we will have another chap as the campaign goes on.

:44:15.:44:14.

I'll be back next week with the second of our special

:44:15.:44:19.

If you'd like to get in touch about that,

:44:20.:44:22.

or if you'd like to be in the audience for a live

:44:23.:44:25.

debate with the Welsh party leaders, email us.

:44:26.:44:27.

The address is thewalesreport@bbc.co.uk,

:44:28.:44:28.

or use the social media hashtag thewalesreport.

:44:29.:44:31.

But for now, diolch am wylio, a nos da.

:44:32.:44:34.

Thanks for joining us, and good night.

:44:35.:44:38.