17/01/2013 This Week


17/01/2013

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Tonight on This Week, as temperatures fall below zero and

:00:06.:00:08.

snow spreads across the country, join us for Westminster Winter

:00:08.:00:13.

Watch. The Prime Minister postpones his eagerly-awaited speech on

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Europe as the scale of the hostage crisis in Algeria unfolds. I think

:00:21.:00:26.

we have to prepare ourselves for the possibility of bad news ahead.

:00:26.:00:28.

The former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan, will be

:00:28.:00:32.

joining us live in the studio. Back in the Westminster village,

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former Prime Minister Gordon Brown came out of hibernation and made a

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rare appearance. The Economist's Anne McElvoy has been studying the

:00:39.:00:49.

political wildlife. A big beast usually surrounded by the Labour

:00:49.:00:54.

herd was a strange sight speaking alone from the backbenches.

:00:54.:00:57.

And will Oprah Winfrey make Lance Armstrong melt under the TV lights

:00:57.:01:00.

and confess all? Coming in from the cold, and

:01:00.:01:03.

telling all, former model Paula Hamilton, and TV Presenter Richard

:01:03.:01:12.

Madeley. Getting people to come on television and tell the truth, make

:01:12.:01:17.

a confession, is an art in itself. And I'm looking forward to meeting

:01:17.:01:25.

you, Andrew. Wrap up and we'll keep you warm.

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Evenin' all. Welcome to This Week. On a night when our normally

:01:33.:01:36.

jocular disposition isn't appropriate for grim events. A mix

:01:36.:01:41.

you ture of speculation and grim news is emerging from the hostage

:01:41.:01:49.

crisis in Algeria, centred on a BP compound. Algerian forces launched

:01:49.:01:52.

an attack on the compound. The British Prime Minister and other

:01:52.:01:56.

western leaders were not informed ahead of the operation despite the

:01:56.:02:00.

risk to their nationals. It appears that a number of hostages, perhaps

:02:00.:02:04.

as many as 30 or even more have also their lives during the

:02:04.:02:09.

fighting. As well as a number of Islamist militants and no doubt

:02:09.:02:13.

some Algerian security forces too. This evening David Cameron

:02:13.:02:20.

announced he was postponing his long awaiting speech on Europe, and

:02:21.:02:26.

more warned that bad news on the assault is possible. It is widely

:02:26.:02:32.

thought that this is linked to France's crackdown on the militants

:02:32.:02:37.

in neighbouring Mali. The eyes of the world are now turning to the

:02:37.:02:43.

vast expanses of north Africa. The true extent of Al-Qaeda and

:02:43.:02:48.

jihadist influence control and military capability in the region.

:02:48.:02:56.

Joining they on the sofa is former Prime Minister Tony Blair's

:02:56.:02:59.

Director of Communications Alastair Campbell, and the former Secretary-

:02:59.:03:05.

General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan. Welcome to you all and a

:03:05.:03:15.
:03:15.:03:16.

special welcome to you Kofi Annan. We face a very bad situation at

:03:16.:03:21.

this BP gas compound in Algeria. A number of British citizens have

:03:21.:03:26.

been taken hostage. Already we know of one who has died. The Algerian

:03:26.:03:31.

armed forces have now attacked this compound. It is a very dangerous

:03:31.:03:36.

and very uncertain, a very fluid situation, and I think we have to

:03:36.:03:40.

prepare ourselves for the possibility of bad news ahead.

:03:40.:03:43.

COBRA officials here are working around the clock to do everything

:03:43.:03:49.

we can to keep in contact with the families, to build the fullest

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possible picture of the information and the intelligence that we have.

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I've chaired meetings of COBRA today and I will continue to do so.

:03:57.:04:02.

I will do everything I can to update people on what's a difficult

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and dangerous and potentially very bad situation. A sombre Prime

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Minister in Downing Street a few hours ago.

:04:09.:04:16.

Kofi Annan, let me start with Mali. How serious was the Islamist threat

:04:16.:04:23.

developing there and in other parts of the Maghreb? I think that Mali

:04:23.:04:29.

became, if I may put it this way, collateral damage of Libya. Quite a

:04:29.:04:37.

lot of the soldiers, Malian soldiers, working and fighting for

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Gaddafi went back home where they had the weapons and they are

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trading. There was already a revolution and rebellion in the

:04:46.:04:56.
:04:56.:04:58.

north. By the Tuareg group and the Islamist group also joined in. When

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these people returned with their heavy weapons, some of the Malian

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troops of the same tribe also teamed up with them. So they left

:05:08.:05:15.

the Government Army and joined the rebels? And it was also at a time

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when a coup had taken place and there were political tensions in

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the capital. And, of course, given what was happening in the north and

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the speed with which the rebellion was moving south, and particularly

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the last few days, I could understand why France would act.

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Because the West African forces were supposed to go in but they

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needed time and indicated it would take a couple of months for them to

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get ready. So there was a danger that the French saw, and in your

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view they were right, that Islamist and Al-Qaeda-backed militants in

:05:51.:05:57.

the north were in danger of taking over the whole of Mali? They had

:05:57.:06:01.

already taken the north but they could have moved further south, so

:06:01.:06:08.

they had to be stopped. And in the meantime the West African forces

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had decided to accelerate their deployment, which I hope would make

:06:11.:06:16.

a difference. I think given the fact that Mali was a collateral

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damage of an international action in Libya, I hope the international

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community will stand firmly by Libya and, firmly by Mali and help

:06:28.:06:31.

Mali liberate its territory. Do you think French were right to

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intervene? I think they were right to intervene and, of course, when

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you take this sort of action, in that sort of a region, with the

:06:40.:06:46.

parties and the groups we are dealing with, there is always a

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backlash. There is always a push- back, so we shouldn't be too

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surprised that it happened. But I think nobody had perhaps expected

:06:56.:07:00.

that it will happen in that particular location. Now, given

:07:00.:07:04.

what had happened in Mali with the French troops there waiting on the

:07:04.:07:08.

West African troops to join them, and then this developing hostage

:07:08.:07:12.

situation in Algeria, in the south- east on the way to Mali in a sense

:07:12.:07:16.

and on the border with Libya too, are you in any doubt that the

:07:17.:07:23.

events in Mali and the hostage situation in wraur are connected?

:07:23.:07:27.

have no doubt - in Algeria are connect? I have no doubt that they

:07:27.:07:33.

are connected. We should always be aware that we had a very volatile

:07:33.:07:40.

situation. They've taken lots of hostages, from Niger to Mali to

:07:40.:07:46.

Mauritania there's been quite a bit of traffic there. We've been

:07:46.:07:50.

worried about developments not only with the question of hostage taking,

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the question of drug smuggling, where the Latin American drug

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barons are using West Africa, particularly Guinea-Bissau, to move

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drugs to Europe. So the drugs are coming through the north African

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desert? They come by plane and by ship. Any route that will get them

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to Europe. In fact we are launching a West African Drug Commission

:08:18.:08:22.

looking at itsle pact on degreesy and governance at the end of the

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month. Given the hostage situation at this BP compound in a pretty

:08:26.:08:30.

remote part of the world, are you surprised that the Algerian

:08:30.:08:35.

Government decided to go it alone, not to involve maybe better-trained

:08:35.:08:38.

special forces from Britain or France or whatever? Is this in

:08:38.:08:44.

keeping with the Algerian way of doing things? I think the Algerians

:08:44.:08:49.

have had a fairly competent Army. They also believe they know the

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environment. And I suspect they know the groups that operate in

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that region. And probably felt very confident that they would be able

:08:58.:09:05.

to deal with it, and that speed was of the essence, and decided to move

:09:05.:09:10.

very quickly. Unfortunately things have gone wrong and we should send

:09:10.:09:14.

our sympathies and condolences to the families who've lost loved ones

:09:14.:09:18.

and those who've been wounded. But I think the Algerian action was

:09:18.:09:23.

well intended. They may have been set back and gone wrong but I think

:09:23.:09:29.

it was a sort of action that I would have expected them to take.

:09:29.:09:34.

Michael? Well, first of all, I don't disagree with anything that I

:09:34.:09:38.

have heard at all, but to think about what the situation begins to

:09:38.:09:43.

tell us. Mali is yet another area in which the West has been

:09:43.:09:47.

compelled to intervene. It is not place where you might say we've put

:09:47.:09:53.

our arm in the mangle, a my metaphor meaning that you intend to

:09:53.:10:02.

go in for a limited time but get drawn in more and warm. It

:10:02.:10:10.

exercises our extreme vol toilet the a symmetrical war.

:10:10.:10:16.

-- our extreme volatility. There was talk they were moving the

:10:16.:10:20.

hostages out, that there was talk they were threatening to blow the

:10:20.:10:25.

hostages up. I can see the Algerians might have been impatient.

:10:25.:10:29.

They might recognise that British and French forces might do a better

:10:29.:10:37.

job but it takes a while to reconnoitre. That takes time. And

:10:37.:10:42.

this terrorist group includes some very important militants. You mean

:10:42.:10:49.

enemies? For a long time. In a much broader sprifrbgs it is worth

:10:49.:10:57.

taking a snapshot of -- broader perspective. It is worth taking a

:10:57.:11:04.

snapshot of where we are. We've seen Gaddafi removed from Libya.

:11:04.:11:08.

We've connived at removing Mubarak from Egypt and have little idea

:11:08.:11:13.

about the future of that country. We are conniving with the removal

:11:13.:11:20.

of al-Assad, and we have little idea of the future of Syria. We are

:11:20.:11:25.

withdrawing from Iraq, where the situation is very unstable. Even in

:11:25.:11:31.

Turkey we are losing ground to Islamist forces. And of course Iran,

:11:31.:11:37.

which used to be medal in check by Saddam Hussein in Iraq, is now in a

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rampant situation and moves towards the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

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Meanwhile Israel has fallen out of favour with most of its erstwhile

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allies. Pakistan is extraordinarily unstable and elements in Pakistan

:11:51.:11:56.

are feeding the militancy and instability of other areas. This is

:11:56.:12:00.

a very complicated conflict we are involved in and I have to say right

:12:00.:12:05.

now it is not going well. You sound very gloomy. Given that we have

:12:05.:12:10.

unfinished business in other parts of the world, are we right in

:12:10.:12:14.

seeing what we used to call the Maghreb, the part of North Africa,

:12:14.:12:19.

is this the new front on what people, some people called the war

:12:19.:12:27.

on terror? I'm not sure I would put that way, but I agree with what the

:12:27.:12:33.

Minister said. Particularly his review of the broader Middle East,

:12:33.:12:37.

starting from North Africa, stretching to Afghanistan.

:12:37.:12:41.

you're gloomy too? And even to Pakistan. We've lots of work to do

:12:42.:12:50.

it's a very messy world we are living in. I think when it comes to

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North Africa, I hope the Egyptians and the Tunisians over time will be

:12:56.:13:03.

able to manage the situation better. But we all have to work together.

:13:03.:13:11.

It is not just an issue for Mali or France or Algeria. We need a much

:13:11.:13:17.

broader international effort. Including the West African forces?

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Including the West African force which is are going in. If I may add

:13:23.:13:30.

to what Minister from till o said, we tend to -- Minister Portillo

:13:30.:13:38.

said, we tend to ignore failed states. We ignored Afghanistan when

:13:38.:13:48.
:13:48.:13:49.

the Russians left until they we were hit in... We ignored Mali. And

:13:49.:13:53.

we are seeing another development in the West African region which we

:13:53.:13:57.

need to tackle ruz lootly and firmly before we confront. You are

:13:57.:14:01.

saying this has been firsting for a while, that we should have seen

:14:01.:14:06.

this coming. Alastair? What Michael is doing in a sense is explaining

:14:06.:14:14.

why the Russians and the Chinese tend to try to ride out of these

:14:14.:14:19.

situations. You mentioned Egypt. And Mubarak. People are saying

:14:19.:14:24.

what's going to come, and Libya is partly the same. We tend to judge

:14:24.:14:27.

these countries by our own standards and values. Michael is

:14:27.:14:31.

also right about what the terrorists can do. There is Mali

:14:31.:14:35.

doing. Assuming that Sophie is right and it is linked, they pick a

:14:35.:14:40.

place that's probably not that well protected, that is probably easy to

:14:40.:14:44.

get in and make the initial attack. They probably know that there are

:14:44.:14:48.

people there from some of the major countries of the world. It is not

:14:48.:14:52.

only David Cameron looking sombre on the television tonight. The

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pressure is then on our leaders to get in and sort it out. Operating

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probably in pretty much the same information as we have. And Michael

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is right that you've got to feel for the Algerians if they do think

:15:06.:15:10.

suddenly they've got this crisis on their doorstep, they have got to

:15:10.:15:17.

deal with it, and how long would it take to get enough British, French,

:15:17.:15:22.

Australian Special Forces out there? So I suspect the Algerians

:15:22.:15:25.

are perhaps pressed the panic button and gone in and sorted it

:15:25.:15:35.
:15:35.:15:36.

out. It appears, we don't know, The interesting thing here is that

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some of these terrorists also batch - watch the news. I remember once

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something happened in Congo and immediately after the Black Hawk

:15:51.:15:58.

down in Somalia said why did you do this and they said "We also watch

:15:58.:16:03.

CNN". You said that our friends should not be left alone to do this

:16:03.:16:08.

and that it will be hoping that the west African forces will arrive -

:16:08.:16:11.

they've been a long time coming haven't they? Where are all the

:16:11.:16:14.

Americans in all this, because in news gone by, the Americans would

:16:14.:16:17.

have been taking the lead in something like this? We know that

:16:17.:16:20.

Mr Obama sees himself as the Pacific President, he wants to face

:16:20.:16:25.

that way, rather than our way, but from what you say, at some stage,

:16:25.:16:32.

the Americans will get involved? think they will have a role to play

:16:32.:16:37.

and they have assets that other countries may not have. If this is

:16:37.:16:42.

going to be a real international effort, we are going to try and

:16:42.:16:47.

contain or nip the problem in the bud before we have another Somalia

:16:47.:16:53.

or Afghanistan on our hands, then we have to have all hands on deck.

:16:53.:16:59.

Those with assets will have to participate. I'm sure there are

:16:59.:17:03.

discussions going on in Washington as to what role they can play. They

:17:03.:17:12.

may not want to be upfront leading and pushing, but they can make very

:17:12.:17:17.

useful contributions. You mentioned Afghanistan. The war in Afghanistan

:17:17.:17:22.

really just started after 9/11. What should have been done by the

:17:22.:17:27.

big powers and international community before that? What could

:17:27.:17:34.

have happened that could have prevented this? Before the Russians

:17:34.:17:41.

left, it was becoming almost a failed state, an ungovernable

:17:41.:17:45.

situation. What could have been done then? If one tried to help

:17:45.:17:49.

improve governance and tried to work with them on economic and

:17:49.:17:53.

social issues, and to strengthen the institutions, we may have been

:17:53.:17:59.

able to avoid the Taliban coming. This is going back in history. We

:17:59.:18:04.

had President Clinton at the time which was weakened because of the

:18:04.:18:08.

Monica Lewinsky business. When the provinces in eastern Africa were

:18:08.:18:13.

attacked, he limited himself in military responses. Let me finish

:18:13.:18:20.

our response - discussion. Am I right in thinking the world is more

:18:20.:18:24.

dangerous than it was a couple of days ago today? It's been a messy

:18:24.:18:30.

place and a messy world for a long time and this has added another

:18:30.:18:36.

complicated twist. Got a bit more messy? Yes, it's a really messy

:18:36.:18:43.

world when you look around. I mean, Michael gave us a tour of them.

:18:43.:18:48.

That is only a part of the world, the Middle East, you have other

:18:48.:18:51.

regions. We could be here all night going around every country of the

:18:51.:18:55.

organisation you used to run? Exactly. It's been a pleasure to

:18:55.:18:58.

have you on the programme tonight. Thank you very much.

:18:58.:19:03.

In three hours' time, Oprah Winfrey's interview with Lance

:19:03.:19:06.

Armstrong will be broadcast across the globe. Ahead of the television

:19:06.:19:11.

confessional, waiting in the wings, we'll be joined on the sofa by

:19:11.:19:15.

Paula Hamilton and Richard Madeley preparing to come clean and tell us

:19:15.:19:19.

all. If you feel the need to divulge your thoughts, you can join

:19:19.:19:24.

in the discussion on the Twitter, Fleecebook and geed good old

:19:24.:19:27.

interweb. Before the escalation of the hostage situation in Algeria

:19:27.:19:32.

today, Westminster was poised to here hugely anticipated much-

:19:32.:19:34.

discussed speech by the Prime Minister on Britain's relationship

:19:34.:19:39.

with the European Union. Now, it's always been a tricksy topic for

:19:39.:19:42.

Tory leaders, for David Cameron it's proving no different, as we

:19:42.:19:45.

know, the Prime Minister made daesition to cancel the speech just

:19:45.:19:49.

a few hours ago -- decision. This week, we turn to the economist Anne

:19:50.:19:59.
:20:00.:20:07.

McElvoy for her round-up of the Hello and welcome to Anne's big

:20:07.:20:11.

bite, a very classy burger joint where we serve only the most

:20:11.:20:15.

delicious fare to Westminster's finest with all the trimmings and

:20:15.:20:22.

not an equine in sight - nay! The week we discovered that Tescos had

:20:23.:20:26.

unwittingly included horse meat in its burgers, Mr Cameron served up

:20:26.:20:31.

red meat to Tories with a referendum pledge on Europe.

:20:31.:20:35.

That was something for Ed Miliband to get his teeth into and the

:20:35.:20:41.

atmosphere at PMQs was as hot as one of my sizzling supersized

:20:41.:20:44.

chilli burgers. When the Prime Minister first became leader to

:20:44.:20:47.

have Conservative Party, he said their biggest problem was that they

:20:47.:20:53.

spent far too much of their time banging on about Europe. Is he glad

:20:53.:21:00.

those days are over? Do we look at these changes and see what we can

:21:00.:21:04.

do to maximise Britain's national interests and do we consult the

:21:04.:21:08.

public about that or do we sit back, do nothing and tell the public to

:21:09.:21:12.

go hang. I know where I stand, I know where this party stands, and

:21:12.:21:16.

that's in the national interest. a time when there are one million

:21:16.:21:18.

young people out of work and we have businesses going to the wall,

:21:18.:21:23.

what is he doing? He's spent six months preparing a speech to create

:21:23.:21:27.

five years of uncertainty for Britain. When it comes to Europe,

:21:27.:21:32.

it's the same old Tories - a divided party and a weak Prime

:21:32.:21:36.

Minister. There will be a very simple choice at the next election.

:21:36.:21:39.

If you want to stay out of the Single Currency, you vote

:21:39.:21:45.

Conservative, if you want to join it, you vote Labour. If you want to

:21:45.:21:48.

take power back from Britain, you vote Conservative, if you want to

:21:48.:21:52.

give power to Brussels, you vote Labour. That is the truth. What we

:21:52.:21:57.

see from his position, he wants absolutely no change in the

:21:57.:21:59.

relationship between Britain and Europe and he doesn't believe the

:21:59.:22:02.

British people should be given a choice.

:22:02.:22:07.

Dave does believe we should have a choice, just not until 2018. By

:22:07.:22:12.

putting it all on the back burner, he hopes that he'll buy himself

:22:12.:22:16.

time if he gets re-elect to Number Ten. There are some problems with

:22:16.:22:20.

that. For a start, getting a renegotiation of powers to put to

:22:20.:22:24.

the voters is a bit complicated and he doesn't know whether his present

:22:24.:22:29.

allies like the Dutch will still be backing him by then.

:22:29.:22:33.

Dave's not exactly got a big dollop of support from other European

:22:33.:22:37.

leaders either and at time, the business is unsettled at the idea

:22:37.:22:42.

of its relationships with trading partners being uncertain for years

:22:42.:22:46.

to come. Mr Clegg's been warning that the

:22:46.:22:50.

referendum on Europe would bring a period of instability. If you

:22:50.:22:53.

create years and years of uncertainty about whether we'll be

:22:54.:22:58.

in the European Union or not, I think that creates a degree of

:22:58.:23:00.

uncertainty when what we desperately need at the moment is

:23:00.:23:05.

more stability in the British economy. Same again, love. You've

:23:06.:23:13.

already had four. Are you sure? The Liberal Democrats meanwhile in the

:23:13.:23:17.

Lord's have been accused of flipping their support on boundary

:23:17.:23:21.

changes after their Tory coalition partners refused to support Lord's

:23:21.:23:27.

reform. The truth is, that this is solely, sadly and cynically because

:23:27.:23:31.

the Deputy Prime Minister didn't get his way on Lord's reform. Now

:23:31.:23:35.

he wants to exact a little retribution.

:23:35.:23:41.

It's nothing less than a great political sulk. With the so-called

:23:41.:23:44.

pay role vote approaching half o membership of the Government's side

:23:44.:23:49.

of the House of Commons, the power of Government to control Parliament

:23:49.:23:53.

is effectively increased when I believe my Lords the opposite

:23:53.:23:58.

should be the case. This is therefore not the right time to

:23:58.:24:02.

reduce the ability of the House of Commons to hold executive to

:24:02.:24:06.

account by reducing its membership. The peers have less reason to do

:24:06.:24:09.

deals than mere MPs. I get the impression they are enjoying

:24:09.:24:18.

turning the heat up on the Prime Minister.

:24:18.:24:21.

Gordon Brown, the big Labour beast that was returned to the green

:24:21.:24:26.

benches this week. He hasn't been seen in these parts since 2011 when

:24:26.:24:30.

he returned to roast Rupert Murdoch and it still felt odd seeing the

:24:30.:24:33.

ex-Prime Minister on sparsely populated Labour benches where once

:24:33.:24:37.

there would have been a doughnut of cheesy support. He spoke rather

:24:37.:24:41.

well, but surely he should just turn up a bit more often or change

:24:41.:24:48.

the day job. I rise on behalf of myself and also my two honourable

:24:48.:24:54.

friends to urge the Government to save the jobs, the work programme

:24:54.:25:02.

and the marine business of the Remploy factories in Cowdenbeath in

:25:02.:25:06.

Fife. It's nice to take the weight off my feet after a long shift.

:25:06.:25:11.

Weapon, both the main party leaders have used the dramas to show off

:25:11.:25:15.

their skills in the Westminster food fight -- well, both the main

:25:15.:25:19.

party leaders. This is the starter and the main course could be bloody.

:25:19.:25:24.

Still, it's something for us political hacks to feast on.

:25:24.:25:34.
:25:34.:25:37.

Mm, I'm good at this... Very big thank you goes to Tom and

:25:37.:25:44.

Terry, they let us take over their fabulous and very popular snack van

:25:44.:25:49.

on Clapham Common. Anne McElvoy, welcome to the programme. We've

:25:49.:25:53.

talked earlier with the Secretary- General about the international

:25:53.:25:56.

situation. Let's talk domestic policies. The Prime Minister

:25:56.:25:59.

postponed his speech in Amsterdam tomorrow. Would it be too

:25:59.:26:03.

mischievous to say this speech might never happen? I think at this

:26:03.:26:08.

point the speech has to happenment it's been put off in circumstances

:26:08.:26:12.

which even Nigel Farage understood, the man who cares more about this

:26:12.:26:16.

than anything else in the world did understand why because of the

:26:16.:26:20.

situation in Algeria. The problem he has with the speech, which you

:26:20.:26:24.

do reflect in your question, is that they built it up into the all-

:26:24.:26:28.

or-nothing this is going to be the answer and trying to build one up

:26:28.:26:32.

into, this is the Oracle, all been relieved will end up with a lot of

:26:32.:26:36.

people saying, that wasn't up to much and wasn't what I wanted to

:26:36.:26:41.

hear. They've made an expectation which is too high. Does the

:26:41.:26:45.

postponement only increase the tension or take it out of the

:26:45.:26:48.

situation? No. It's somewhat increasing the tension. We have got

:26:48.:26:53.

to go through it all again. There's more time for groups within the

:26:53.:26:56.

Conservative Party to agitate, for example. Broadly speaking, I think

:26:56.:27:04.

we are on our way to a car crash. Yes. Multiple? Youth I don't see

:27:04.:27:07.

why our European partners would be willing to negotiate powers away

:27:07.:27:10.

because anything that we get is something that they lose and

:27:10.:27:14.

something that they care about. Secondly, the Prime Minister's made

:27:14.:27:17.

it clear he wants to remain within the European Union, therefore you

:27:17.:27:20.

can't take seriously the threat he might withdraw from the European

:27:20.:27:23.

Union. Thirdly, our European partners will have a very clear

:27:23.:27:27.

view as to the likelihood of the Conservatives winning a majority in

:27:27.:27:34.

the next Parliament. That likelihood is low.

:27:34.:27:38.

Were he to have a renegotiation, whether successful or not, I find

:27:38.:27:41.

it absolutely implausible that the Prime Minister would hold a

:27:41.:27:44.

referendum. This would be a referendum, since he says he wants

:27:44.:27:48.

to be in the European Union, in which he was recommending the

:27:48.:27:52.

answer yes. But people would tend to vote no, firstly because any

:27:52.:27:55.

question with the word Europe in it would invite the answer no.

:27:55.:27:59.

Secondly, any Government asking a question in mid term would invite

:27:59.:28:04.

the answer no. And any loss of a referendum would be absolutely

:28:04.:28:09.

destructive of the authority of the Prime Minister. It would be a

:28:09.:28:12.

calamity. So no renegotiation and no referendum, so this all strikes

:28:12.:28:17.

me as a load of huey. The car crashes happen when the

:28:17.:28:21.

driver's not got a clue where he or she is heading and that is his

:28:21.:28:25.

problem. I think David Cameron's being defined as someone who's

:28:25.:28:29.

utterly defined by tactics, rather than strategy. He's only making the

:28:29.:28:34.

speech at all because of an interview that he cocked up to the

:28:34.:28:38.

Sunday Telegraph. He's been picked apart by his backbenchers. UKIP

:28:38.:28:43.

have ran an effective campaign and he's being driven step by step. The

:28:43.:28:51.

management of this event has just been... I mean I completely agree

:28:51.:28:54.

it's understandable that he cancelled the trip but before that,

:28:54.:28:59.

the management of this has been a catastrophe of somebody he doesn't

:28:59.:29:04.

know what he was trying to do. very fixateed on this date. It's

:29:04.:29:11.

fascinating, you know, why is it 2018? It's as far back as you could

:29:11.:29:16.

go assuming he wins the next election. Basically he'd get one

:29:16.:29:22.

term and a good half-term as Prime Minister. He's well aware he could

:29:22.:29:26.

lose it. I don't think he thinks it's going to happen. What can he

:29:26.:29:31.

do? If he says it's not going to happen, he's finished, he has UKIP

:29:31.:29:38.

at his heels, he's got to say it's going to happen, just not now.

:29:38.:29:43.

reality is, it's worth observing he's been forced into this position

:29:43.:29:47.

of apparently promising a referendum over quite a short time.

:29:47.:29:50.

Until recently, the formula was that whatever any arrangement with

:29:50.:29:53.

Europe was, it had to get the ascent of the British people, were

:29:53.:29:56.

they in a referendum or a general election. So this idea that we have

:29:56.:30:04.

to have a referendum is very, very new and it's a position that's led

:30:04.:30:08.

to it. You know better than most. You know this is where the heart of

:30:08.:30:13.

the party is and therefore whatever you say, we can all pick apart what

:30:13.:30:16.

he's doing. Why isn't that challenged? Michael, you know they

:30:16.:30:19.

don't want to challenge that. You didn't want to challenge that, in

:30:19.:30:23.

fact. So you can see the problem. How do you say, I am Euro-Sceptic

:30:23.:30:30.

but I'm reasonable and I'm trying Euro-sceptic. I can even envisage

:30:30.:30:33.

the circumstances in which I could see Britain leaving the European

:30:33.:30:37.

Union. Although I don't think any party leader will offer a

:30:37.:30:42.

referendum to the British people, I can see that happening. What would

:30:42.:30:49.

the referendum be on then Hang on. What I wouldn't do is say I want to

:30:49.:30:53.

be in the European Union but I will give the British people the

:30:53.:30:58.

opportunity to kick me in the teeth. That would be daft. Do you have any

:30:58.:31:02.

idea what the referendum would be about? No more than anybody else.

:31:02.:31:07.

What I think he is trying to do, as I understand it, what I'm basically

:31:07.:31:13.

saying is don't come back to me if it turns out not to be right.

:31:13.:31:19.

Things can change in Europe, things are changing in Europe. There'll be

:31:19.:31:23.

a German election, lots of things can change. He could say he gets

:31:23.:31:28.

back for it and he will settle for that. You don't negotiate and have

:31:28.:31:33.

a bit of this and that and have a referendum on it. That's absurd.

:31:33.:31:38.

This is highly academic and it assumes so many things, after what

:31:38.:31:41.

we are talking about with the Secretary-General who knows what

:31:41.:31:47.

world we'll be in after 2018. Let's assume he does repatriate powers

:31:47.:31:52.

back to London and says, I'm going to put this to be people. If he

:31:52.:32:02.

votes yes, we stay in on this new arrangement. If we vote know, what?

:32:02.:32:07.

ALL TALK AT ONCE If you have won song on renegotiation would have to

:32:07.:32:10.

swing your party behind it. A biggive but that's what you have to

:32:10.:32:15.

do. Remember that history and precedent goes with a "yes" vote

:32:15.:32:20.

having started with a strong anti- feeling in the country. I do

:32:20.:32:24.

believe you could win a "yes" vote on in or out. And that's what he is

:32:24.:32:30.

banking on as well. But that won't be the question. Let's get on to

:32:30.:32:37.

the important question, Gordon Brown. What's his stit status in

:32:37.:32:43.

the Labour Party today? It is very difficult being a former Prime

:32:43.:32:48.

Minister when you are relatively young. I was watching Gordon there,

:32:48.:32:54.

the first time I've seen that clip. He is on the backbenches, he didn't

:32:54.:32:58.

quite to know what to do with his hands. I think Gordon is popular in

:32:58.:33:02.

the party. I think he is somebody for whom there is still a lot of

:33:02.:33:08.

respect, not least the way in which he handled the crash on behalf of

:33:08.:33:13.

the global financial community. Should he stay in the Commons?

:33:13.:33:17.

was difficulty for Tony, because he stepped down midterm and left the

:33:17.:33:21.

Commons straight away. Gordon had just been elected as an MP when he

:33:21.:33:25.

lost the electionment for him then to say, "I'm not going to hang

:33:25.:33:31.

around the Commons" that would be terrible. But he doesn't hang

:33:31.:33:37.

around the Commons. He's never there! He is not Maggie or Ted

:33:37.:33:42.

Heath chuntering on all the time. The way Tony Blair behaved was

:33:42.:33:46.

disgraceful, because he showed he was using the House of Commons as a

:33:46.:33:50.

sort of public convenience so he could be Prime Minister. The moment

:33:50.:33:56.

he was not Prime Minister he left the place. He had contempt for his

:33:56.:34:02.

constituents and for Parliament, he called a by-election. At least

:34:02.:34:07.

Gordon Brown has appears in the House of Commons. He does the

:34:07.:34:11.

humble thing, he stands on the backbenches and looks uncomfortable,

:34:11.:34:16.

and talks about disabled people who are going to lose their jobs. A lot

:34:16.:34:21.

of Remploy offices closed when he was Chancellor and Prime Minister.

:34:21.:34:26.

I want to give you the final word on this segment and on the Gordon

:34:26.:34:31.

Brown situation. I think he spoke rather well in the Commons. If he

:34:31.:34:38.

could put his pride aside and come back to the common s he could do a

:34:38.:34:44.

lot of good. They can't treat it like a gentlemen's club and turn up

:34:44.:34:54.
:34:54.:34:56.

a couple of time as year. With great pain I advised Margaret

:34:56.:35:02.

Thatcher, because she asked my advice, she asked whether she

:35:02.:35:06.

should stand at the following election. I said it would be better

:35:06.:35:14.

for her not to stand. Some people have dissident, Churchill did it.

:35:14.:35:19.

He is not going to stand again is he? Gordon? I would be surprised.

:35:19.:35:23.

Thank you. Now, regular viewers will know

:35:23.:35:26.

we're not exactly on the best of terms with the rather vague concept

:35:26.:35:29.

of "truth" here on This Week. Why do you think Alastair looks so at

:35:29.:35:32.

ease and at home on our sofa? But with cyclist Lance Armstrong's

:35:32.:35:35.

much-anticipated interview with Oprah Winfrey about to be broadcast

:35:35.:35:38.

in the early hours, we've decided it's finally time fess up and put

:35:38.:35:48.
:35:48.:35:56.

"coming clean" in this week's I guess I have a sudden tourge say

:35:56.:36:03.

something that I have never really been able to say in public. When

:36:03.:36:09.

actress Jody Foster used the Golden Globes to speak publicly about her

:36:09.:36:16.

sexuality, Hollywood and the world applauded her honesty. Whether

:36:16.:36:22.

drugs cheat and cyclist Lance Armstrong will be so canny remains

:36:22.:36:27.

to be seen. I would say he did not come clean in the manner that I

:36:27.:36:35.

expected. It was surprising to me. Former Number Ten policy guru Steve

:36:35.:36:37.

Hilton admitted that the PM sometimes reads about Government

:36:37.:36:42.

policy in the papers, and often doesn't even agree with it. And

:36:42.:36:45.

supermarkets have been forced to own up that customers were getting

:36:45.:36:50.

more than they bargained for in their bargain beef burgers, with

:36:50.:36:53.

horsemeat and pork adding to the flavour.

:36:53.:36:58.

So when it comes to coming clean, should we keep ourselves to

:36:58.:37:02.

ourselves or tell the world what's really going on and just deal with

:37:02.:37:09.

the consequences? Move We are joined by Paula Hamilton and

:37:09.:37:13.

Richard Madeley. Welcome to you both. Richard, is TV the right

:37:13.:37:19.

place to make a confession? It can be. It depends how you play it. As

:37:19.:37:27.

the interviewer I always favour the oblique approach. He had an

:37:27.:37:33.

exclusive with OJ Simpson just before he was acquitted of murder.

:37:33.:37:41.

We had a lot of advice. They all said, "I would ask him but kill

:37:41.:37:47.

your wife? "Kpwhgs was stupid. He is not going to drop to his knees

:37:47.:37:53.

and say yes, you've got me, I did. In the end the channel lost their

:37:53.:37:58.

bottle and trunkated it by many minutes. In the end you Question

:37:58.:38:01.

Time a confession which isn't expected. We were interviewing

:38:01.:38:04.

years ago Keith Chegwin and there were lots of rumours in the press

:38:04.:38:08.

he had a drink problem. He was denying them. He said he was

:38:08.:38:12.

suffering from stress. A min into it this interview where we were

:38:12.:38:19.

being soft and gentle, he said, "I can't lie, I'm an alcoholic" and he

:38:19.:38:25.

gave us the interview. At the end of it Judy said, "Keith, that took

:38:25.:38:33.

a lot of bottle." Seriously. Celebrity Big Brother, is that

:38:33.:38:38.

confessing on camera? No, it is deflecting yourself. So it's the

:38:38.:38:42.

opposite. Did you know that before you went in to do it or did you

:38:42.:38:48.

discover that on doing it? I have a fantastic TV psychologist and also

:38:48.:38:54.

I've been on Andrew's show - sorry, my darling. Richard. Andrew is my

:38:54.:38:58.

psychologist. I went on Richard & Judy. They asked me when I was

:38:58.:39:05.

coming out about being an alcoholic, I was candid. You were one of the

:39:05.:39:09.

frankest interviews... Do you think if you do a TV confession that's

:39:09.:39:14.

the way to relatively speedy forgiveness? It depends what the

:39:15.:39:20.

confession is and if you readily give it. I remember police

:39:20.:39:24.

vigorously questioned a man they were sure killed his wife and

:39:24.:39:29.

disposed of the body. They couldn't persistent it on him. They sort of

:39:29.:39:34.

connived with us to help, with a live interview. It was a disastrous

:39:34.:39:39.

decision for him to make. He gave a terrible performance. It was clear

:39:39.:39:46.

that he was hiding something. It was clear he was guilty as sin and

:39:46.:39:53.

they rearrested him. He broke. thing about Lance Armstrong, a lot

:39:53.:39:57.

of lawyers are going to be watching what he says, because he's got all

:39:57.:40:02.

these contracts. And the Sunday Times lawyers who lost a libel case.

:40:02.:40:07.

She's hyped it to my mind way over the top. I suspect there'll be a

:40:07.:40:12.

lot of disappointment. She hasn't said that. You interviewed him and

:40:12.:40:18.

you fell for him. I fell for the whole package. I did. I thought he

:40:18.:40:23.

was a great guy. Oprah used the word mesmerising and he is. He

:40:23.:40:27.

convinced me that he worked hard or trained harder, that he was a

:40:27.:40:33.

fitter, better, stronger and more focused cyclist and that's why he

:40:33.:40:39.

won. He said, "I've had more urine samples tested than anyone on the

:40:39.:40:44.

planet and never tested positive." I remember the famous interview

:40:45.:40:51.

with Richard Nixon about which a movie has been made. David Frost

:40:51.:40:55.

had an instinct that Richard Nixon was dying a making a confession

:40:55.:41:02.

that. There was a dam holding back a lot of water. That's why Frost

:41:02.:41:07.

went ahead with those interviews. There is a moment where suddenly

:41:07.:41:13.

head says, I let down the American people, I confess. But find the TV

:41:13.:41:18.

confession a cleansing experience? Yes. I think I also wanted to allow

:41:18.:41:24.

other people to get rid of the stigma of drugs and alcohol. But

:41:24.:41:29.

the nub of the question which you are all missing is, who is the

:41:29.:41:32.

pharmaceutical company that's making the drug and giving it to

:41:32.:41:35.

our Olympic people? Our team players. Who is the pharmaceutical

:41:35.:41:40.

company? And you are the most good looking and most intelligent man on

:41:40.:41:43.

television and I sincerely know that you will get to the bottom of

:41:43.:41:48.

it. So let's stop picking on the individuals and go to the

:41:48.:41:52.

pharmaceutical companies. You can make drugs by some purpose which

:41:52.:41:56.

are then misused by individuals for other purposes. Some people are

:41:56.:42:00.

suspicious that too many of these confessions are stage managed. Are

:42:00.:42:04.

they? I think you can tempt I can't call to mind those which I thought

:42:04.:42:10.

afterwards we had been had, been used. That's basically because Judy

:42:10.:42:14.

and I were both journalists and tended to go for the story rather

:42:14.:42:20.

than the performance. Can you think of any? I can't. Not stage managed

:42:20.:42:24.

but in a sense Diana's, there were three of us in this marriage, was

:42:24.:42:30.

if not stage managed was certainly pre-planned and was part of her PR

:42:31.:42:34.

strategy against Charles. Oprah Winfrey has taken control of this

:42:34.:42:40.

thing. The clips they've put out after Lance, he doesn't come out

:42:40.:42:47.

well. I've seen the one of him rubbing his ear 100 times. She is

:42:47.:42:52.

in control. And he is a control freak but has lost control of this

:42:52.:42:57.

interview. Did you ever advise a politician the only way out of this

:42:57.:43:03.

is to confess? I think there were certainly situations where, well,

:43:03.:43:09.

Peter Mandelson was one when the heat was really up on him... A very

:43:09.:43:15.

recent example, I do fear that if Andrew Mitchell two days after his

:43:15.:43:19.

Downing Street incident had said looks di use the F word but I

:43:19.:43:26.

certainly didn't say pleb, he might have made it. On the paper

:43:26.:43:33.

interviews he never said he didn't use the word pleb. Any were to

:43:33.:43:38.

confess would be deafened by the sound of skeletons coming out of

:43:38.:43:41.

cupboards. No, I'm clean. That's your lot for tonight, folks.

:43:41.:43:44.

Thanks to all our guests this evening. We're giving Annabel's a

:43:44.:43:47.

miss tonight, having a quiet one, and heading straight to bed, so I

:43:47.:43:51.

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