By Election Special This Week

paid to so many for doing so little on your watch. We have to regulate

it properly, which we are doing, to ring-fence the casino banking from

the commercial banking. You have made virtually no progress in three

years. Please stop interrupting. They are not lending. This is an

industry that employs 1 million people and generates �100 billion a

year in taxes, which funds the public services we all want. Is it

right or wrong for Brussels to do this? Brussels does not have a

financial services industry. Britain has the biggest financial

services industry in Europe, and we need to regulate it properly. It is

not up to Brussels. They are just trying to grab the British powers.

It was the bankers who got us into this mess, so if dropping their

bonuses makes them go abroad, I say, good. Our time is up, so we must

end there. Andrew Neil is on your next with a special election

edition of This Week. They will have the results of this by-

election, which we have been trying to guess at. They will be on to the

early hours until the results come through. Next time, Question Time

will be in Dover. We will have Melanie Phillips and Bob Crowe

among our panellists. The week after that, we will be in Cardiff.

To come to either programme, apply via our website or call us. My

thanks to our panel, to all of you who came from your heavy duties as

voters in Eastleigh today, and from Question Time until next Thursday,

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 67 seconds

Tonight on This Week, as the Oscars red carpet is put away for another

year, we roll out our purple political carpet. Female superstars

dressed to kill. Back home the Lib Dems are doing a Jennifer Lawrence

and tripping up over the issue of women. Lib Dem leading lady Miranda

Green delivers an emotional speech. No red carpet return for Nick Clegg.

He faces the wrath of female activists. This is worse than a

trip-up. Daniel Day-Lewis is now a triple Oscar winner, while George

Osborne has been stripped of his AAA rating. Best supporting

journalist and broadcaster Anne McElvoy reads the Chancellor's poor

reviews. His critics lined up to remind him of the huge flop of the

British economy but Mr Osborne insists that he is still the

leading man for the role. And in an award-winning performance in Rome

as the curtain comes down on the career of retiring Pope Benedict,

writer and philosopher Alain De Botton looks for something more to

believe in. The end of religious commandments to be good shouldn't

be mean the end of ethics or indeed our own attempts to try to be kind.

And the winner of best political programme is... I've spent all week

writing my speech. Evening all, welcome to This Week.

Not so much a Pippa Middleton a Friday night feast but more like a

Blue Nun Thursday night throw-up. You join us in a funk, because it

turns out that George can't sing, has no rhythm and now no AAA rating

following the decision of a discredited ratings agency to

downgrade the economy and the chances of an election victory.

The men said toxic sub-prime mortgages claimed were as safe as

the Bank of England, claimed Enron was the bees knees and said should

the Titanic hit an iceberg, it wouldn't sink. Humiliated? Not a

bit of it. If a Bullingdon Club initiation includes burning a �50

note in front of a tramp, torching our AAA rating in front of the

money markets is just another student prank courtesy of our

everyouthful Chancellor. Speaking of those for whom politics is just

one game I'm joined by an older couple whose relationship with

easily withstand the stress of living in a confined space with

zero atmosphere and only a few sheets of toilet paper. I speak of

John Prescott and #sadmanonatrain Michael "choo-choo" Portillo. Your

moment of the week. The election result in Italy, which has plunged

the euro into crisis once more. I think the Italian people have made

a perfectly rational decision, because austerity for the Italians

doesn't make any sense if they can't devalue. I celebrate the

chaotic result in Italy because the failure of the euro is

fundamentally in the best interests of this country and of most of the

countries who are members of it. John, your moment of the week.

the Lords and the Bill which brings in arbitration for the McCanns and

people like that after the Leveson proposals. Governments are not

doing it, bringing in the Queen's prerogative. I thought we had a

civil war to get away from that prerogative, but the House of Lords

made it clear we use -- by using the Defamation Bill there'll be

arbitration and a framework as Leveson recommended. My moment of

the week is the Eastleigh by- election which was today. And why

not go live to Eastleigh now. The BBC's John Pienaar is at the count,

which is under way. John, what's the latest from there? What are

people saying? What are people feeling about the result? Andrew,

it is going to be a long night. They are going be counting and

recounting here I think until maybe 3 or 4 o'clock in the morning. But

at this stage with maybe less than half the boxes being worked on by

the counters behind me, the Liberal Democrats do believe cautiously

they are going win this whection. - - this by-election. You can see it,

like a man who jumped off a sinkle ship into shark infested waters.

The Rennard question will still fill the newspapers but they had to

win this by-election. With the roots in this constituency it would

have been disastrous if they didn't win in Eastleigh. Every borough,

county, parish accountable seat. Not so much an organisation on the

ground for the Liberal Democrats but a standing Army. If that didn't

give them victory here they would be in deep trouble. What about the

Torys? They are not going to get the seat, it seems on these early

indications. The party Tory activists, do they look confident

to you about anything? No, they do not. The mood among the Tories at

the moment is they are struggling. Not at all sure that they are even

going to get second place. The UK Independence Party looks like it is

going to gate good result in this themselves as the new party of the

protest, the none of the above party, it is not just about Europe

on this result. David Cameron's promise of an inout referendum on

Europe doesn't by in means seems to have subdued them. UKIP are looking

very happy today. Whatever happens tonight, they are going to have a

good result. Labour, the coalition partners knocking lumps out of each

other. John, if the early indications are right, and I know

it's a big if and the count is going on, you are telling us that

the early indications are that the Lib Dems are likely to hold the

seat and there is a strong possibility maybe even a

probability that UKIP could come second. If these are right, that is

a disastrous night for David Cameron. You've got to put the

words disastrous and crisis, if the Tories come third behind UKIP, Jess

it is -- yes it is a disaster. All sorts of turmoil on the Tory

backbenches, pressure for tacking to the right on immigration, on el

fair, on public spending. You name it, he is going to feel the

pressure from the right-wing of his own party. The media will go to

down if he can't hold on this second place. Yes he'll be leader

and Prime Minister, but after this inest born he may wish up wishing

he wasn't. If there are any developments, let us know right

away. Another week, another scandal

courtesy of the gift that keeps on giving. This time their chief

executive and election supremo Chris Rennard is accused of

harassing female party members. He denies it. Nick Clegg said he

didn't remember it but then said he might have remembered something but

it was unspecific. And then Lord Rennard resigned for health reasons.

Only the sex dems could bring us a sex scandal that doesn't bring us

any sex. What's going on? We asked our own Miranda Green, former

adviser to Paddy Ashdown, for her These aren't the corridors of power.

But give than week's coverage of the sex pest scandal, most of the

public proper do equate the Palace of Westminster with a pick-up joint.

After all, both are full of creepy older men hitting on vulnerable

younger women, aren't they? There is no doubt all of this is

catastrophic for the Lib Dems. The former chief executive, Chris

Rennard is accused of making advances to women over whom he had

power. Even more damaging to Nick Clegg was the cover-ups, and the

ingredient. Was the circle economical with the stphruth this

story will leave a nasty aftertaste and lose the party votes in the by-

election. -- economical with the After years of drinking deep drafts

of complacency about their lack of women MPs, the Lib Dem high-ups are

waking up with one hell of a hangover. Once we've processed all

of this toxicity, what will we have left? The impression being given

that the Commons is full of predatory men on the prowl for

unwary innocent females on whom to pounce is ludicrous. It is already

having a tragic effect on getting more women into Parliament. Not one

but two talented young women Lib Dems told me this has put them off

becoming an MP. I've worked at Westminster for several years as a

Lib Dem apparatchik and a political party and I can tell you there are

much more sexist places to work. You can't elite fear of groping

keep women away from Westminster, where power still lies. So come on

in, sisters, the water's fine. I can't keep propping up the bar on

my own. The spirits are willing but my flesh is weak.

Her tab's still open if you want to pop down to the cocktail bar in

Soho. She now joins us in our little cocktail bar in Westminster.

Welcome. Do you agree with Shirley Williams that this story, in her

words, has been hopelessly exaggerate? I think that the

impression that Westminster and the House of Commons specifically is

not a safe place to be a woman is really disastrous. I think it is

just wrong. So in that sense yes, I do. I think that you could decide,

I'm sure people on Twitter will decide later there is something

deeply wrong with me. But in all my career at Westminster none of this

has ever happened to me. It is a great place to work if you are a

woman and the impression give than week is deeply damaging. Are you

sure that Shirley Williams isn't wrong, and that the Chris Rennard

behaviour is, as it is alleged, more widespread at Westminster?

People have different experiences. I'm sure this happens in all

parties. That's my point. Yes, but look at the City of London. Look at

industry. Actually, one of the things I think is really

encouraging this week. It has been a very bad week. But this culture

of omerta, that you can't speak up in a political party, that you owe

loyalty to the extent of not speaking up for yourself, this has

been broken by these women and they've stood up for themselves.

That's very positive. There's been a lot of female solid arity and we

ought to celebrate what's changed in the House of Commons. Since that

great 1997 moment when the Labour Party bit the bullet and had all-

women short-lists, the culture has changed enormously. I genuinely

think it would be sad if women didn't get involved in politics

because of this. It has changed but the Westminster power structure is

still largely older men in an area populated bay lot of younger women

who've ambitions to get on. Does that really make it a safe

stphrirment It has already been pointed -- a safe environment in

the It has already been pointed out that we chose selection procedures

where 25% were women. I support. That people feel they are put off

because the people who make the decision - the men - they need to

get on with, because they could affect whether they become a Member

of Parliament. Most of them say they wanted to become a Member of

Parliament but were put off by the groping and these stories. You have

to do more to want women Vut to increase the possibility by using a

discriminatory method. Do you think behaviour that's involved and the

accusations against Chris Rennard is quite widespread in Westminster,

that this is not a one-off? wouldn't say it simply applies to

the Liberals. Through all the political systems and all political

partys the women will tell you they've been involved in something.

I haven't, John. It is better than when I was in the

city of London. That was much worse. You have to say to women, this is a

culture in which you are here, you get by on your wits. Then you can

change things for all women. Michael?

One has to distinguish between relationships and improper

relationships, of which there are a lot. In this case, allegedly, we

are talking about the abuse of power, using sex as a way of

controlling people. He was in a position to control their future.

may sound like Nick Clegg, I have not heard of that before. In any

party. If you agree with Shirley Williams

that this has been exaggerated, if you don't think this is widespread,

doesn't that make Nick Clegg's handling of the affair even worse?

It has been really bad. It is a textbook case of how to keep a

story running when you should have handled it at the beginning. But I

think the problem is for the Lib Dems. Because of this chronic under

representation of women in the House of Commons, there's a well of

resentment in the party about how women are treated generally.

Therefore, there's a sort of desire to speak up for these women, not to

side with the leadership. Why did he handle it so badly?

I think he and a lot of people felt a lot of loyalty to Lord Rennard,

who they worked with closely over the years. I think that, frankly,

these small organisations, you have got half professionals, half

volunteers, there are not really the structures that people, for

example, in the business world would expect. Hold on, the Lib Dems

have been acting in an unctuous way for years about how other

institutions need to know how to handle these matters. Yes, I agree.

And they have lectured business about it. They have elected

institutions. Nick Clegg has lectured the BBC about the handling

of the Jimmy Savile business. When it is at his front door, he is

missing in action. It is how you deal with it once it

is known. What is so terrible about this is that they did nothing about

it. That is the real problem. Most of these women have said, I have

made a complaint, I don't want to disadvantage the party, and then

the man comes back. They are saying to themselves, they just don't care.

I don't disagree with this but I'm trying to explain that I think that

in politics, it is a peculiar world. It is not like business. A lot of

it is done through networking. There are people on the outside who

are involved. The power relationships are more ambiguous

than they would be in a formal hierarchy, somewhere like the BBC,

or a business. It is not an excuse in any way. Does Nick Clegg have to

win in Eastleigh tonight to keep his leadership going for the short

term? If they hold on, even by a narrow majority, it is important

for him. He is enormously damaged by this. And if the early

indications were wrong and he lost...? It would have been

catastrophic. He turned it into a judgment on his judgment. It became

a story about Nick Clegg. mistake.

It is the most extraordinary thing that the Lib Dems, with terrible

ratings, and because of the by- election... If these indications

that we are getting are right, and they are similar to ones I have had

from other people down there, to, what does that mean for Mr Cameron?

Who? When we were here three weeks ago,

the Tories were thought to have a lead. That seemed the most probable

thing. Then there was the selection of the candidate. Worse than that

was the apparent decision of the leadership that the candidate

should be hidden, which led to chaos, absolute chaos. Perhaps this

is lucky for David Cameron. There will be a focus on what happened in

the by-election. To the extent they can focus on that, they may be able

to hold off some criticism. They deliberately chose a poor

candidate?! David Cameron may say this is not a reflection on the

government, it is the circumstances of the by-election which were run

badly. That is the line. I saw this leaflet issued by the Tories. You'd

have thought it was by UKIP. Politics is an unforgiving business,

though. You win an election one-day and the party faithful take it for

granted. A couple of weeks or months later, these independent

reports come out. This could still come back to haunt Mr Clegg.

definite. A leader needs loyalty in a tricky spot. Being in a coalition

with a natural enemy is a tricky spot. That loyalty from the party,

he has got to find a way to recapture it quickly. It is about

judgment as well. That is at the heart of this. His own people must

be saying, was the last statement inoperable? It is about the

judgment of the individual. Thank you for being with us. We are going

to let you go so you can get home in time to watch our special.

According to research this week, amazingly, people lie about how

much they drink. I can't believe that! The researchers forgot to

mention that the Sturry -- study was carried out in our green room,

so we are not sure it is representative. For those of us

with a more sober mind, a philosopher is here to find out why

we struggle so much to believe. For those of us with little faith, you

can stare into the void of emptiness known as Twitter,

Facebook, and the good old missionary position internet. We

are a classy bunch, which is why the production of us were excited

to hear about the most exciting story of the week - Cheryl coal's

new tattoo. Would you believe it, it is two red roses. He knew she

was such a fan of Labour? We sent a journalist to a tattoo parlour that

we know. This is her round-up of She has got one. David Beckham has

got his. What with me being at the cutting edge of Westminster's

hipsters, I won't be left behind. The things I do for the modest

compensation of This Week! Some tattoos are caught the tramp stand,

but that will not apply to my high end body art. If it is good enough

for Samantha Cameron... And she is George Osborne had this stamped on

his heart when he said that Britain's economic competence

should be seen as a sign of his staying power. But it goes to show

that nothing is certain in politics. Britain's credit rating has been

downgraded, like a cheap tumble dryer. At least he per -- prepared

us for the bad performance. The markets had factored it in. Anyway

you can get rid of one of those letters as?

This decision is a stark reminder of the debt problems built up in

Britain over the last decade. It is a warning to anyone who thinks we

can run away from dealing with those problems. The downgrading is,

in this Chancellor's own words, a humiliation for this government.

Let me remind the House what he promised. He said the British

people will have transparent benchmark against which they can

judge the economic success or failure of the next government. No.

One, we will safeguard Britain's credit rating.

And it is not just Britain in trouble. The eurozone is still

careering to political upheaval. Those European bankers have even

been threatened by the EU with having their bonuses capped. The

markets have been spooked by Italy's election stalemate. Could

they be about to abandon their austerity programme and decide they

prefer a good laugh? Not so many people are happy to support the Lib

Dem bird at the moment. The party that is long hovering under the

wings of the two Wayne -- main ones has had a horrible week and a lot

more scrutiny than it is used to. There have been allegations that

Lord Rennard got a bid to -- a bit too senior with some of the junior

ministers. When concerns arrived, we dealt with them. Nick Clegg's

early statement swayed between an apology and a defence. That is

never a good place to be as leader. Which one is it? His shifting

pronouncement has prised open tensions within his own ranks and

in the coalition. But I would say the other party leaders would hate

to going for the kill unless a Lothario emerges within their own

ranks. Perish the thought. 10 years ago, we had bigger stuff

to worry about - the Iraq war was beginning, and for many, what

followed became an indelible stain on Tony Blair's Premiership and the

beginning of his divorce from the Labour Party. One look at him now

shows the war he fought alongside George Bush did take a personal

toll on him. But his interview also suggested that his favourite nude

meeting remains the French song. -- mood music. 100,000 civilians have

been killed. 179 British soldiers have died. Was it too high a price?

Of course the price was high. high?

Think of the pious -- price they paid before. Think of the Iraq-Iran

war, in which there were hundreds of thousands of casualties.

The emotional nature of the debate means it is still hard to draw up a

final audit, and I suspect that in another 10 years the rows about Mr

Blair's great Iraq gamble will still be simmering, whatever other

shocks and scandals I will be covering by then. And when, I'm

assured by my producer, these tattoos will have faded.

Generally, though, the art of politics is dealing with

impermanence and shifting alliances. But there's one passion that is

forever - yes, Andrew, that means Anne, getting some ink but there --

some think the there. The Lib Dems feel more confident now than they

did half an hour ago. Labour are briefing us that they are forced,

and a poor fourth. They believe the Lib Dems have won, but it is tight

Michael, has Mr Osborne been damaged by the loss of the AAA

state you? Yes, George Osborne staked a it lot on the AAA rating

and the Government dearly hoped they were going to save it. Indeed

I don't think there would have been a coalition in the first place if

that hadn't been the objective. Trying to keep down the cost of

Government debt, these are objectives that made it worth

trying to find a coalition Government. It is not an economic

disaster but it is certainly something that damages George

Osborne. Did he make a mistake pinning too much emphasis on

maintaining the AAA state us? He could have said it is what we want

to do and we will strive to do it, but he made it numero uno objective.

He did two-and-a-half years ago. What we now think about AAA ratings

is different from what we thought then. Since then France and the

United States have lost their AAA ratings without any apparent dill

tears effect. There are only three -- without any dill tears effect. I

think where we was in 2010, no, it was a reasonable objective to have.

John, we look at the state of the Government's economic policy at the

moment and most of the indicators by which they want to judge

themselves are going in the wrong direction. Even the deficit is now

not falling in this financial year. And by their own definition.

Exactly. Should not Ed Balls be landing more hard pumps on the Tory

frontbench? He is just quoting what they promised. When they came in

this that election the big thing was the get the election down. They

haven't achieved that but that's what they wanted to do. If they had

said it doesn't matter about the AAA it would have undermined their

positions. So I think he's been damaged by that. I think Ed's

turned out to be right. The problem with the plan B at the moment is

that the present policy by Osborne is the same as Cameron. They are

two together. That's their policy. If they was to change Osborne now

and change the policy would be back to the argument about a plan B. It

is growth. How do you get to it after he's Goth himself anchored

into one particular policy. Is Ed Balls's historic links with Gordon

Brown still a negative for Labour and in public perception? In public

perception, I don't know how they can really justify it. The thing

that saved us so far is not being in the euro. Who wanted to be in

the your o? The central position that the Tories now claim, an

advantage that we are in there and are out of it was Ed Balls, so on

that fundamental decision he is right. I think Ed Balls is the

problem because he is so closely associated with the broad range of

Gordon Brown's policies which led us into our present mess. The other

thing is that as we see the debt rise and the deficit not evening

falling, the only thing Ed Balls seems to be saying is we should

borrow more. That's a very difficult message to carry any

credibility. It is duff but it is the argument of growth. If you want

to cut the areas with consumption is great you take 1 million people

out of the public service and assume they've got it in the

private sector, you have an immediate effect on the economy.

He's saying, and I think he is right, you need to growth to get

the tax and the income coming We are in a policy now where you are

not going to get the demand into the economy for the next three or

four years, so you pay more in unemployment and the debt gets

worse. It is a difficult one to get across. It is. The polls suggest he

hasn't managed to get it across yet. I don't think he is up enough

explaining it. Perhaps he might feel intimidated but he's really

got to go out and make the case. Could Ed Miliband move him from the

Shadow Chancellorship this side of the election? Don't think so, no.

And I don't think, frankly, what are you going to do, change the

policies from what he is saying, "You need growth? Maybe if Alistair

Darling was saying it, white have more credibility. Now you are in to

the argument of political credibility and that's a difficult.

He made the decision. He had AlJohn sons there first of all. Mr Balls

was Mr Miliband's third choice. was personally supportive that he

should come in, Ed Balls. Let me come to you with Tony Blair. We saw

that clip, there the long interview in two parts on Newsnight. With

what you know now and what we all know now, are you still as certain

as Mr Blair that going to war in Iraq was the right thing to do?

absolutely not certain at all. What struck me about that interview and

has struck me so often hearing Tony Blair talk over the years, he

claims that the right thing to do was the remove the Saddam Hussein

regime. When we were debating in Parliament before the vote, he told

Parliament that he had no aspiration to remove that regime.

If that regime gave up its weapons of mass destruction, the regime

could stay in place. So now to use the argument that it has all been

made worthwhile byry moving Saddam Hussein is very dishonest. When he

makes that point about want would have happened, Iraq used to fight

Iran. Yes Iraq did used to fight Iran. Iraq used to keep Iran in its

place. One of the things we've seen since the Iraq war is Iran is the

regional superpower with no competitor, nothing to hold it in

check. John, it is ten years since Mr Blair's Government began, with

the Americans, the invasion of Iraq. As we look back with the benefit of

hindsight, was it the wrong thing to do? Yep. I think it was wrong,

based on the decision, we can have all that argument, given the

information about the nuclear, it looked to be right. The real

problem with Tony thinking through this process, Rwanda had a major

effect on him with the massacres that took place there. We didn't do

anything about that. And the UN. I think it encouraged him to think

you can still act this way, hopeful to get the Americans in on UN. When

he sent me to talk to Cheney and others, it was clear. They are

going to go in without you. It doesn't matter. They are getting

ready. Did you have misgivings at the time? I said Tony, they are

going to do that. Bush was quite prepared to have a plan for Israel.

And the whole problem in regard to Palestine. He went further than

Clinton in that case, right? And therefore that plan was something

but it fell apart, as it often does in American politics, because the

influence domestically is too great. What you hoped for was the UN. It

didn't come about. You hope the Israel one, the new alternative

plan would work. It didn't, because of the same position. Looking back

on, that I was hopeful that would come out of it. It didn't. Indeed

at the end of the day Tony Blair obviously said to himself, I promed

to do this and I'm going to do it and that is today's consequences.

And I have to be part of that. I can't disown it. I go through my

thoughts but it cannot be justified as an intervention. Thank you. In

the words of the great existential philosopher R Kelly, I believe I

can fly. I think about it every day, spread my ewings and fly away. Why

do so many others appear to be losing their faith. We believe in

the sacred Trinity of late night TV, St Diane, St Mike and a holy bottle

of Blue Nun. We've decided to put belief in this week's spotlight.

Whether it is priests, politicians the police or institutions like the

BBC, a broken society presents challenges for our personal beliefs.

This week it seems we've lost faith in the Lib Dems, again. As former

chief executive Chris Rennard is accused of inappropriate sexual

behaviour. But Nick Clegg is still a believer. I will not stand by and

allow my party to be subject to a show trial of innuendo, half truths

and slurs. Comedian Beppe Grillo has drained faith in Italian

politics with his anti-austerity approach. Catholics are in

disbelief over Pope Benedict's stepping down and Cardinal

O'Brien's retirement in Scotland. I'm really surprised. It is

shocking. I think quite right. There's double standards going on.

I think it is about time really that the Church moves on. Even NHS

treasures are deemed to be losing our trust, with NHS chief executive

Sir David Nicholson under pressure following the Mid-Staffordshire

hospital scandal. What will it take the regain the nation's belief in

an increasingly Godless society in the if Waitrose can put their faith

in Pippa Middleton, maybe UKIP really do have a solid chance of

winning the'll by-election. And we are joined by Alain De

Botton. Does it matter if people don't believe in anything?

course it matters. They do believe in things. There is an assumption

that once religion disappears from the national landscape there's

total disagreement on all ethical issues. There season. Gather a

group of strange ers in a room and ask, do we have things this common,

and people will come up with many of the same thing. Religion out of

to be central to this country's belief system, an overwhelmingly

Christian country for many centuries. Was it then replaced by

secular gods, for a while everybody was a Tory or a Liberal in the 19th

century. Political parties, the NHS, even the BBC. Is it a mistake to

transfer that faith to institutions? I think what's

legitimate is to ask once religion disappears what do you do with many

of the longings that religious institutions catered for? What do

you do with people's search from meaning, for meaning, for their

desire to be good, to meet their end feeling they've contributed to

society? These are genuine questions. I think things like the

BBC, the NHS or politics doesn't fully answer the depths of people's

needs. If you look at faith and belief, of course it can be hugely

comforting to people I understand the need for it. But it can also

blind. A faith in the Catholic Church, blinded people to the

widespread abuse by priests. Belief that we had the best police in the

world often blinded us to the corruption in the police force. A

belief that the NHS is the envy of the world, blinded us to nurses who

don't care. Absolutely. I speak as an atheist. One of the most

charming and interesting aspects of Catholicism is its doctrinal belief

that human being is flawed, that the only perfect human being is God

and he isn't among us. Most people are flawed. That's the starting

point. That is often forgotten by Catholics and secular people. If

you are living in the world of human being your starting point has

to be this is a relatively broengs fragile, insecure person I'm

dealing. We are not made to be idealised. If you do, we shatter

when knocks come along. For people of faith, what do you think they

made of when the Pope retired today, that remarkable quote, there were

times when God appeared to be sleeping. Was he having a wobble?

think he was flirting with the Church of England. They have an

idea that God is around but probably sleeping. I thought it it

was Church of England that was sleeping. That too. John, when did

you lose your faith in socialism? I'm a practical politician. We had

the big argument about Clause 4 in the Labour Party. I said don't do

that, you are tearing the heart of the party. Nobody takes any notice

of it but I understood we needed to make the change, so we went through

the change. We drew up something that started off, we are the

democratic Socialist Party. I'm more interested in the practical

ways of how you achieve the values that you have in your faith and in

your belief. How is your faith doing on free markets? Doing very

well. You are still a true believer. Not unrestricted free markets

butning the last ten years we've moved very much in the wrong

direction and we need to move back to somewhere close to where we were

ten years ago. You've drawn up Ten Commandments for the Godless.

What's the first one? Empathy, but trying to understand what's going

on in a stranger's mind. We are all so good at self justification and

so bad at trying to imagine what's going non-the other one.

shouldn't bit thou shallot not kill? He a go at trying to imagine

what are the things we can agree on? If you look at secular society,

what are the values we can agree on. I drew up a list of then, -- a list

of ten. For those of us lacking in empathy... I used to say to Tony

you are a Social Democrat really. I thought he was a Christian Democrat.

He is a Christian Democrat and that was him. We'll leave it there.

Alain De Botton, thank you. Unusually that's not your lot for

tonight, because with the Eastleigh election providing more excitement

than Annabels. We'll be chewing over all the by-election issues and

comes in. If you like your politics In 2003 Chris Huhne was an MEP. His

car was caught speeding on the M11. His wife told the police she had

been driving and she received penalty points on his licence.

Years later Chris Huhne was MP for the seat of Eastleigh. His family

featured in his leaflets. In one he said getting married doesn't seem

like 26 years ago. But in 2010 he left his wife for this worges his

He was the Climate Change Secretary and he was prepared to confront the

Prime Minister across the Cabinet table during the referendum on

changing the voting is. But then he became subject of a

media frenzy after his ex-wife went to the papers. She claimed that a

decade before, her husband was the one who had been speeding and he

forced her to take the points to avoid a driving ban. Chris Huhne

denied it. These allegations are incorrect. They've been made before

and they've been shown to be untrue. That's not how it looked to the

Crown Prosecution Service. And we have concluded that there is

sufficient evidence to bring criminal charges against both Mr

Huhne and Ms Pryce for perverting the course of justice. It prompted

Chris Huhne's resignation from the Cabinet and yet another denial.

innocent of these charges and I intend to fight this in the courts

and I'm confident that a jury will agree. Hewn tried to have the case

thrown out of court, claiming he couldn't be guaranteed a fair trial.

Earlier this month just as that trial was about to begin at

Southwark Crown Court a dramatic twist. I've pleaded guilty today. I

am unable to say more while there is an outstanding trial. But having

taking responsibility for something which happened ten years ago, the

only proper course of action for me is now to resign my Eastleigh seat

in Parliament, which I will do very shortly. This is obviously an

extremely serious matter and it is essential that the legal process is

now allowed to run its course. I'm shocked and saddened by what's

happened. But I believe that Chris Huhne has taken the right decision

in resigning as an MP. And so the race for Eastleigh was on. The

place was swamped by Ministers, MPs, activists and party leaders for a

short, sharp by-election. At one end of the constituency, the yachts

of the river Hamble. At the other an old railway town. At the last

election 3,000 votes separated the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.

On a national level, it was a test of how the two parties in the

coalition would fare in battle against each other but much of the

campaign was very local. About planning applications and gravel

pits. Until a few days ago when the Lib Dems became engulfed in another

scandal. Did your leader know? liked our green credentials...

Chris Rennard was accused of sexual harassment, which he has denied.

The party was accused of failing to properly investigate.

In the meantime the trial of Chris Huhne's ex-wife continues, as he

waits to be sentenced and we await Welcome to viewers at the BBC News

Channel. You are watching the BBC Eastleigh By Election Special.

People went to the polls today to pick a successor to Chris Huhne,

who resigned. We are expecting the result after 1:30am, providing

there are no recounts. With us for the long march into the wee small

hours, we have a panel of some of Britain's best politicians. We have

the strongest coffee to keep their eyes open. It will end bitterly for

somebody tonight. We have Simon Hughes, Chuka Umanna and Paul

Nuttall, the deputy leader of UKIP. Welcome. Who is going to win? Grant

Shapps? We will have to wait to see after the votes are counted.

who will win? The votes are now being counted. The sources are

pretty unanimous. Let me give you a prediction on another basis. We

know that in by-elections throughout Times, since the Second

World War, they have been 485 of them. Out of those, gains have only

been made by the main side on four occasions. Preparing the ground for

a defeat? Just looking at the statistics. We know Labour is not

going to win. Who is? I don't know! I have absolutely no idea. We put

in a really serious effort into this by-election because I think we

are trying to demonstrate, and I think we have, that we are serious

about winning back support in all parts of the country. If we were on

course to win this, we would have a majority of 362 if there was a

Do you share your confidence of your party colleagues in Eastleigh?

I was just down there this evening. I just came back. I was canvassing

houses in the least obvious Liberal Democrat part. The real unknown

there seems to be who is second? We still think there we can win it.

There has been a huge UKIP edge over the past week. Eastleigh is

the first by-election where we got 1.4%. We only finished 100 votes

ahead of the Monster Raving Loony Party. UKIP has come on in a

massive wave. I think that that will be in the need it too late 20%

so. I don't think it matters whether it is north or south, Labor

or conservative, UKIP can take a threat across the board.

counting is going on as we speak. The counting used to take place in

town halls. That does not seem to happen any more. This account is

taking place in a leisure centre. Bring us up to date on what is

happening! We are here in a cavernous a

leisure centre. The verification process has finished. They are

beginning to count the ballot. Turnout has been 52%. Turnout is

high for a by-election but for the general election, it was 69%. It

will be interesting to see who the level of turnout will benefit. The

turnout is of an increasingly confident Liberal Democrat. They

think that they have held the seat but did not think it will be as

large a share as it was in 2010. There will be delighted with that

because of the circumstances of Chris Huhne's departure. The Lord

Rennard allegations. They have put everything into this. Hundreds and

hundreds of campaign volunteers at their headquarters. Nick Clegg came

here five times during a campaign that lasted just three weeks. It

looks as though it has paid off tonight. He will be pleased and

relieved. The other story emerging tonight is more come second. Will

it be UKIP or the Conservatives? This used to be Tory territory.

UKIP have been surging in the last few days of the campaign. There was

talk of UKIP winning. Even in New Kid circles they are playing down

the likelihood of that. They may eclipse the Conservatives and come

in second and that would be a virtual victory for them. It was

characterised that led by UKIP personnel. We expect to see Nigel

Farage parading if they come second as if he has won. But then presents

David Cameron with a huge headache. We had a speech from him on Europe.

The first signs of the ballot box, the first Test of that off on

Europe here in Eastleigh and it looks as though the Conservatives

made slip behind UKIP and come in third. It is early days but there

is talk of you keep coming -- UKIP coming second and the Tories coming

third. Is it true to say that there is a

sense of that the Lib Dems are concerned with UKIP but all three

votes are close two aisles looking close by for first place and also

close for second and third place. They got 46% of the vote in 2010.

The Tories came second in 39. They will be pleased if they can get 40%

tonight. They think that they have won by a few hundred votes but it

could be closer on second and third. It has come almost become a two-

thirds horse race. UKIP have been surging in recent days and they

have become a real legitimate contender in this competition,

continuing a trend of their performance in recent by-elections.

It looks like they will be beating their previous performance where

they came in second. It is going to be tight and there is the potential

for recounts as well. We have the coffee on so there will

stay with you even if there is a recount. One final thing for the

moment - I think I'm going to be talking to a lot in the minutes

ahead - are you hearings that the postal votes may have played a

crucial role in this by-election? There were a lot of them and the

majority of the postal votes went to the Liberal Democrats. If they

have won, if I say, that maybe what has won it?

There are Seve 9,000 people on the electoral roll here so that is the

kind of a mountain that we are initially playing with. 14,000 of

postal votes were issued. I was told that when they came back,

there were three relatively equal piles for the Liberal Democrats,

Conservatives, and UKIP. The Lib Democrats feel that they have got

around 40% of those words and hope that it will be replicated when the

counting is finished for the rest of the balance. They feel confident

that having seen the postal votes that will prove to them about all

the evidence that there for normal ground operation has paid off. They

had managed to get out the vote in terms of postal votes and those who

have gone to the polls physically today.

We will be back to talk to you soon. If you're worried about majorities

and swings and roundabouts and who is up and who is down, then do not

panic. In Our immaculate newsroom, we have a man who has lived and

breathed every by-election since 1932. I was there with him at the

time. John, very good to see you. It is good to have your nights like

this. Tell us about your feelings of the Eastleigh constituency and

what would result in somebody winning. What were the factors be

to get a result of victory? If the Liberal Democrats have managed to

win this seat and we must be mindful that that is still an if,

then almost undoubtedly they will have to thank the local workers.

This is a constituency where they hold every single local government

seat. In the election last year and in 2011 where much of the country,

they had haemorrhaging votes for badly. In Eastleigh, they have held

up. They want to try and find a constituency where they up -- they

are well positioned.... If the Liberal Democrats have won,

how well have they won? We have heard of the Liberal Democrats

gaining 40%. If they had managed to get 40%, that would be a good

result. That would be only seven points down on the general election

result. That will be much better than the party's current opinion-

poll rating. The opinion polls have suggested that the party may scrape

home with their more than a round one third of the vote. That is

about what to expect, given the current standing in opinion polls.

Given the fact that the party has done that well in by-elections. It

will not demonstrate that they can necessarily hang on strong main

strongholds than elsewhere. They will have so hung on simply because

the Tory vote is as bad as the Liberal Democrat vote. Is it fair

to say that if the Conservatives cannot win Eastleigh and they

cannot get an overall majority in the House of Commons? If they

cannot win in Eastleigh, then it is unlikely that they can get a

majority and less the same time there were some haemorrhaging of

the Labor vote and the Conservatives can pick those up. We

also must bear in mind that the converse is not true. If the

Conservatives were to win Eastleigh tonight, we should not assume that

would necessarily mean that the Conservatives would be a will to

win an election because at the end of the day although the

Conservatives do want to pick up a half dozen or so of the seats that

the Lib Dems car may hold, we must remember that at the end of the day

it is the party that stands the most between the Conservatives and

the majority which is the Labour Party and at the end of the day it

is how well they can do in marginal Labour seats there is crucial to

their chance of gaining a majority. Those seats are more numerous than

seats where the Conservatives may pick them up from it Liberal

Democrats. We have a mid-term by- election. We have to unpopular

coalition parties according to the polls at the moment. Isn't this the

kind of by-election that you would expect oppositions to win and

should we not expect the Labour opposition to be doing better than

they seem to be doing? We would expect the Labour Party to be do

better than they are doing but I'm not sure we should necessarily

expect them to be winning. Given that Eastleigh is a constituency

where for the most part since the 1980s also it is a seat where they

have been getting around one-fifth of the vote. They might be hoping

to get back to that level. The warning East Leigh maybe there that

if, as we think has happened, that if the Eddie government protest

vote or the protest vote in general has just gone to UKIP that it is a

reminder that although there are plenty of voters who are unhappy

about the collision, there are still also not sufficient voters

who were convinced that the Labour Party can do better. That is

especially true when it comes to the handling of the economy. At the

voters' discontent. It is the discontent that is being expressed

in terms of immigration and they are tapping very deeply into that

in this by-election and it is a reminder that that message that we

are happy about austerity and immigrants allegedly taking jobs

away from British people. That message in a place like Eastleigh

is probably more resonant then Ed Miliband's call that he will try

and help low-income earners and therefore help the economy to grow

out of its current state. The Labour Party still has a lot of

work to do to seal the deal with the electorate and make them feel

that they want to see the Labour Party run the country once again.

Thank you for that. We will come back to you for redder analysis.

If we look at the resort from the last general election, this is the

bench poll where Chris Huhne increased majority. The Liberal

Democrats topped the poll with almost 25,000 votes. The

Conservatives had the same can then as now, Maria Hutchings. There were

in second place. Labour will well down in third. UKIP were much

further behind in that election, in 4th. The card majority is a pretty

healthy majority with almost 4,000 votes. The Conservatives need a

swing of more than 3.6%. Here are the results from 2010 as a

percentage. The Liberal Democrats on top with 46.5 % of the vote. You

should have been a striking distance for this seat, he went

that far behind? Often at by- elections, there is a protest vote.

We're exactly in the middle of Parliament and things are clearly

very difficult. People are looking to have their voice heard. In this

case, the protest party has not turned out to be the party of

opposition which should be concerning. You would expect them

to be right up there. Last time there was a by-election in the same

seat, they got 27% of the vote and came second. He doesn't look like a

We are there to fight for every vote. It would quite remarkable for

the Lib Dems are a time when their poles are so low. That is a fair

comment. National poll ratings around 10%. Added thing we can

ignore the fact that there are difficult circumstances for us as a

party in Eastleigh -- Eastleigh and generally. The past few days have

not been the easiest France as a party. If we held it, nobody knows

for certain, but we hope we may be able to. I think that if we hold it

then it says two things. I think it shows that where we have very good

organisation and a very protracted effort, could councils and a well-

run councils and that is worth it. The fortresses we have which of the

seats that we hold around country normally have that and that is

helpful. Having seats taken away from us will be a problem. Secondly,

it means that we are getting enough of a message was clear and

nationally across and when it comes to voters deciding. We have a

national message and that is that we're trying to help the people on

the lowest income by taking them out of tax. On the doorstep, had

quite a number of people understand the message and hearing that

message. Adding to that, a good candidate with local credentials

and to is clearly the most authentically candidate. -- wink of

all the candidates. Are you surprised by the way the by-

election came about with the MP having to resign and possibly

I am surprised. People Move On quite quickly. The first Eastleigh

by-election was after an unhappy event. The death of an MP who won

the majority. Yes. It was a tragic death. Hardly unexplained. The by-

election, you would think sometimes, reflect what happens before. But

directors quickly say, we understand the question. The

question is, who do you want to be the MP? -- the voters quickly say.

It will not change a government but it will send a message. The voters

are clever enough to realise that all of the National staff, stand-

alone intrigue, rumours or speculation up, is not as relevant.

I agree with a lot of that. This was a locally fought election. One

of the pieces of Pauling said that around 57% of people believe it was

on the local issues they would decide. -- polling. Not what people

think about in a general election. A straight choice about who you

want between two people. It's a different question. One point I

disagree with his at the by- election in the last Parliament, it

was an indicator with an unpopular prime minister, the 10p tax, the

Conservatives winning the seat, it was an indication of what was a

coming next. You might say they they can win in the south. The

truth is, if they are not making an injured in the south, do you know

in the south-east there are 84 constituencies? They are not

breaking through at the by-election. Why did you put out a leaflet in

UKIP colours? One of the small features of this by-election is

that and -- a UKIP MEP defected to us during the by-election. You may

not be aware of it. These are your colours? This is your candidate!

do not believe any party should own a colour. We publish in red

sometimes! We had a UKIP MEP defect. Doing this by election. Her message

was simple. She said UKIP can be a process. If you want to make

progress on Europe, you have to elect a party to Westminster who is

prepared to have an impact referendum, something David Cameron

has promised. It was a serious point to grab people's attention.

The copy is great flattery. They were hiding this leaflet. I have

spoken to your former MEP and she is embarrassed to be in a party

which is happy to be a protest party. But the reason she joined

the Conservatives is she wants to belong to a party that is serious

about changing Britain's relationship. You and I know that

is not true. Britain should have a different relationship with Europe.

A deselection was on the card soon and that is why she jumped ship.

Before we speak to another MP, let us go to Tim Farron. The early

indications, being briefed off the red coat, was that it was looking

good for you. I understand it may not be looking quite as good now? -

- being briefed earlier. I have no idea what you are on about! We have

not finished counting and it will be very tight three ways, it looks

like. The last time the Tories formed a majority, it was a small

majority of 20, and they won with a majority of 18,000. The Tories will

have to win this by a little bit if David Cameron wants to be re-

elected. Otherwise, it will change the narrative of this Parliament.

It would be a boost for us Natalie across all of the constituencies. -

- nationally. Has the fact you have -- have to fight this by-election

amid a growing crisis of confidence in the Lib Dem leadership caused to

problems? You would not choose to fight a by-election caused by the

circumstances that it was or indeed with the press headlines we have

had over the past few days. If the Lib Dems do win this, against the

backdrop of all that, we would have done well. It's a staggering result

for us to win the seat anyway. To win it against all that would be a

turning point. Most people who have written us off would have egg all

over their faces. The other 56 held Liberal Democrat seats, their

position would be stronger. If we were to do well against the Tories

tonight, we would be defending our base very well, we have -- we will

also be a strong seat to start gaining against the Conservatives.

This completely changes this parliament if we should win. I have

noticed you do not deny that there is a crisis of confidence in your

party's leadership? We have had a tough week. You have seen the way

in which the party has rallied to come too easily to help and work

their socks off and get behind Nick Clegg. Without a single doubt, the

party is united behind him. There's no crisis in that leadership at all.

But they have been acres of print writing of the Liberal Democrats.

Tonight, many people will be confounded should we win. Were

they? Who has written you off? You have had a lot of criticism. Who

has written you off in his early? For the last three years, we have

had nothing but print writing us off. You can kind of understand

that given the election results. There has been a steady improvement

over the last 12 months. Our opinion poll ratings have improved.

But this is where it matters. We have a 57 seats. We have to go out

and make some other gains. If we win tonight, things have changed in

our direction. Is there a possibility that Mr Clegg's story

will change again on the Lord Rennard business? It has already

changed twice. I don't think it has changed at all. There is a massive

universal difference... He said he knew nothing about allegations and

then he said, actually, ID but they were non-specific. That is a change.

-- I did. Then he said that of course Chris Wedge night resigned

for health reasons. Now he is saying that the accusations against

him did play a part in the resignation. -- Lord Rennard. That

is twice it has changed. What could the third change the? I do not

think any of those things are mutually exclusive. There were some

rumours. We are aware of that. But in your job, you know there are

always rumours. But I did not employ him. Your party did. Do you

not have a duty of care? There you make a strong point. As a party,

these allegations if true, without a doubt we have let down people who

have worked very hard for the party. As an organisation, we have to make

sure we get this right. We owe it to wider society to practise the

values we preach. OK. We relate to get back to monitor the count.

Thank you for being with us. I hope you get a chance to speak to us

again later. John Curtis now. In your memory,

has there been by election that has been fought with the defending

party in the middle of such a scandal? There have been many by-

elections which have risen as a resources scandal. This is already

the third by-election in this parliament, where the local MP

resigned because of a scandal. We had Eric Illsley in Barnsley

Central. Certainly in Barnsley, there's no evidence that Eric

Illsley's fate cost the Liberal Party any votes. Of course we have

also run into other famous occasions when by-elections have

been caused by scandals. The obvious was the MP from Stratford.

He had been lying to the House of Commons. The Conservative Party did

struggle as a result of that, as did the Labour Party in Warsaw when

the former party general disappeared off a beach in Florida.

That party did worse than you would expect. Sometimes, scandal does

cause a Pardeep a problem. But it does not always. -- party. This

could be another occasion where it does not. The other thing, Lord

Rennard's story, if we were talking about Nick Clegg as a Popular Party

leader who everybody thought was a brilliant deputy prime minister and

then all of a sudden we had this revelation that he had not handled

and affair like this so well, that could have caused problems. But the

truth is, if they were going to win easily, they will do so despite

Nick Clegg's existing deep unpopularity, not because of it.

That was undoubtedly one of the reasons why the national backdrop

probably has not had much of an impact. This is already a party

that has had problems. What is your view as to why the election

campaign seems to have been marked by a growing surges of UKIP as the

campaign has gone on? There is one little known fact about it, worth

pointing out. We have spoken about how it's a strong Lib Dem area. But

it is also a constituency where UKIP has an unusually good area of

-- record. Even in the local elections in 2009. They managed to

get 14% of the vote. By the standard of UKIP, even on that

occasion, it was a particularly good result. This was a place where

UKIP were already rather well positioned. But that does not

explain this broader national backdrop. Presumably, the -- Grant

Shapps is starting to acknowledge this. If the rise in UKIP was to do

with Euro-scepticism among the public, they should be no disputing

that notion, given David Cameron's speech. He promised a referendum.

It has been made clear from the national opinion polls that it is

now the case. There are two things going on. One is a fundamental

difference between this parliament and previous parliaments. In

previous parliaments, the Lib Dems were the party usually picking up

the protest vote. They are no longer position to do that because

they are in government. Therefore, any Conservatives looking for

somewhere to pass the protest vote, UKIP are an obvious selection. UKIP

are feeding into this feeling that this is an age of austerity. An age

of falling living standards. To some degree, UKIP are successfully

putting forward that we need to stem immigration, particularly

above all. It needs to include immigration from within the EU. And

given the only way of stemming immigration from within the EU is

to leave the EU, this is to some extent a distinctive UKIP tune.

That is also something. The truth is, we have had an announcement

that immigration into the UK has been cut. But no government,

whatever its position, can allege... If Grant Shapps, let me go to you.

You had a speech from the Prime Minister saying you would have an

in-out referendum. You have chosen a very Euro-sceptic Cabinet. One

even wants to leave the EU? If these two things combined has still

resulted in a resurgence of UKIP, it has got worked. -- not work.

a by-election, people look for a protest vote. In this parliament,

UKIP may have picked up results as a result. In a general election,

people look for the party who can actually go into Downing Street,

David Cameron or Ed Miliband. Today, they have said that net immigration

has been cut by one-third. Whereby you can get the referendum on

Europe because come that time when it's a serious general election, a

If you're making a fundamental mistake of believing that political

parties do things for short-term interest. If it were in self

interest, the Conservative Party would never argue for Scotland to

be in the Union. We need a renegotiated relationship with

Europe. I do not think that is what people were thinking about today.

This by-election is taking place in mid-term, when governments are

unpopular. The economy is largely stagnating, living standards are

continuing to fall. Both coalition parties are unpopular. This is an

unpolished constituency. It is not Bournemouth or anything like that.

You may not be in a position to win it, but you should be doing well,

as the main opposition, and the highly Repository or a mainstream

protest vote. We're not the main opposition in the seat. The main

opposition in this seat is the Tories. There has been a lot of

talk about 1992. The big question here is that you have a

Conservative Party that has not won a general election since 1992.

After tonight, will it look as though they are closer to winning a

general election, or further? The situation is different. We have not

been organised on the ground in Eastleigh for many decades. We are

essentially building and organisational operation from

scratch. We are delighted with what we have achieved. We have started

from nowhere. You go to start from somewhere if you're going to build

something to get support in these important regions of the country.

This is not a target seat price. It is number 16 on the target list.

Your leader Your leader great play of seen if you're the one nation party.

A particular, you need to win seats out of your heartland. In a way,

the easy thing in this election would be to sit back and say it is

not on the target list of 106 seats we want to win. We could step back

and leave it to the others. The very fact that we have got an

operation, shows that we are serious about winning support in

areas like Eastleigh. One of the important things is, despite the

fact it looks as though will not finish at the top, we have found

that the messages we have been giving, the things that people have

been telling us, tells us that the message has been resonating. That

is a good starting point. How can you be resonating if you are going

from third to 4th? Where is the resonance? We will see. What you

were accepted to come forth that you are not resonating? We have

made 20,000 contacts. We have talks to that of people. Where the issues

they have been raising? The cost of living, the economy, there are over

4,000 families suffering from what the government are doing. I will

answer that we are going to win this contest, but we have put down

decent roots. Mrs an account where the Liberal Democrats have got 41

of the 42 seats. IOS This is a council. We could definitely try to

win Labour councils there. The Lib Dems have 40 of the seeds. They

have made gains. Elsewhere, you're thinking is faulty. Back in 1994,

when the last Labour government was on its way out, his daughter nearly

28% here. He came second. There has got to be a concern that as the

main party of opposition, you are not picking up the opposition votes.

There are 50,000 people in the constituency who were about to

benefit from their tax being April cut. It is all very good at giving

with one hand, but when you take from another it does not mean so

much. It is worth remembering that the Tories lose -- won the seat

with a 17,000 majority. There were some important boundary changes in

1994. It affected John Denham's seed. Your party is expecting a

result in this by-election. You cannot be denying that fact.

want to win every vote in every contest. What I can tell you... I

have not cut the number with it. doesn't even feature on our list.

It is a seat we want to win. It is a seat that will be fighting very

hard for. We have put everything into the sea. If we have not went,

I am sorry. By-elections are hardly a predictor. Previously there were

seen as huge indicators of the next off why are you so excited about

this by-election? It did win the seat in 2010. If he cannot win it

in this by-election given the circumstances, you would not bet

that you were going to win it in 2015, Would you? In by-elections,

they have been 480 by-elections since the war. An incumbent party

has only gained four. This could not have been a more difficult

defence for us. It Luntley gave the Tories the best opportunity they

have ever had. -- bluntly the local issue factor will not be the

primary driver come the general election. I want to fight for every

by-election. The polling suggests that 60% of voters would prefer to

see David Cameron as prime minister. How is the opposition coming

fourth? Why did you make so much of

immigration in a seat that has almost no immigrants? Immigration

is obviously a serious issue because y. The

point we're trying to make in this by-election was that on 1st January

next year, all restrictions fall as a result of the EU membership. We

have 20% youth unemployment. We cannot afford for more be able to

come into the country and see more jobs go to people who were not

resident. These are issues that should be spoken about. Nothing

should be off-limits. We found that it resonated. Eastleigh is 90%

white. It is 96% people who have English as a first language. To

make immigration such a big issue in a by-election for this

constituency would suggest scaremongering. Immigration is

obviously a concern on doorsteps. It is the people who were living

there bringing the issue up. Sometimes, people are voting on

national issues. The UK upsurge -- you tip -- UKIP surge. We are

taking votes from all the parties. Are you taking them because of

immigration? I think that was one point. We have paid to export.

automotive sector is doing well compared to other sectors. The

reason it is having difficulties is because the eurozone is slowing.

That demonstrates how important the membership to the EU is. It is the

European Investment Bank who gave their loan to the company to export

the jobs. I have talked to people about jobs and immigration a lot.

The reality is that unemployment is low here. Most of the loss of

business is to do with engineering, ships, the airport.

Here is a tough question. Who is milkman. Benny Hill. You should

have known that. Your leader chose his song. We had it at a conference

one year. I would ask you another one. We will take a look of the

This railway stand was once the home of a much-loved comedian. When

Benny Hill worked at the dairy it provided inspiration for a 70s hit.

Much has changed since the days of the fastest milkman in the west.

The railway works was once a busy Repair Centre. Today, the airport

is the biggest local employer. On the surrounding countryside, a new

suburban housing estate. The town's industrial side has diminished.

This bakery closed nearly ten years ago. Another big local employer is

switching production to Turkey. Nearby is the home of Hampshire

cricket. Since this constituency was created in 1955, Eastleigh has

only had four MPs. David Price held at 437 years. Then the Lib Dems won

it has a by-election in 1994. It became a three-way marginal. Voters

were visited by Gordon Brown on the campaign trail on the last days of

the Major government. It develops into way Lib Dem stronghold. Today,

the party holds 36 of the local council seats. In the election for

Police Commissioner, a Lib Dem tops the polls. Now the by-election

stage is set with a colourful new Tonight as we wait for the result,

the Count is still going on. It looks like it will be quite a while

yet. 52% turnout, we are told. In the great scheme of things, it is

not great. But it is not bad either. If people are turning to UKIP, and

there does seem to have been a surge, why did they turn to them

and not you? It was a nun of the above for it. They did not want a

UKIP government. But if they have performed well, we have to respect

the result. We have to listen to what they have been saying. I do

not think, for all the talk of Europe, in my experience going

around the country, a lot of people who have been voting for UKIP, it

is for a variety of reasons. A disenchantment with the political

system and the main political parties. There is no getting away

from that. Can I interrupt to for a second. Michael Thornton has

arrived. He is surrounded by the diamonds of the Democrat posters.

He began this might been told by his own people that it looks as if

he had won. As we came on air, there was the situation of people

thinking they had won. A show of support for Michael Thornton. A

local man. Made a lot about local issues. Did not want to talk about

national issues. We will see if we can get a hold of him. You have to

respect the result. You have to respect the result. I am not just

going to dismiss it. There are a range of reasons as to why people

are voting for UKIP. The Labour Party is not a protest party. We

are a serious party of government. You have to look at the concerns

raised by voters. Europe is one of them. But you have a range of

issues about disenchantment. You migration plays a role. I think

part of our problem in the past is that we have been disparaged talk

of migration. But it is a lightning rod for or other issues. It is

quite a serious problem. So far in this Parliament to have won once.

He won a seat for the Tories. You lost a safe Labour seat. Absolutely

wiped away. Today, one of the people I can best said that she had

suppor supporter. But she voted for the

peace candidate. There is a peace candidate. And be. I am making is

that if the Labour Party was a credible alternative government,

surely a Labour voter would have voted Labour. I can tell you plenty

of stories of Liberal Democrat voters. Herr man on the spot is

Robin. There have been some developments? Mike Thornton has a

huge smile on his face. He has come into the hall, surrounded by

supporters. That is a prix victory, victory rally. They are

increasingly confident they have held on to this seat of. They

believe that the majority could even be up and above 2000. Chris

Huhne back in the 2010 election got a majority of almost 4,000. Turnout

of 52%. Increasingly confident. Michael Thornton believes he is on

the brink of moving into local cortex. -- politics. The Liberal

Democrats dominate the council. He feels he is on his way to

Westminster as the men to succeed Chris Huhne. We will also see the

arrival of Diane James, the UKIP candidate. That will be the other

story, how well they do. There is increasing suspicion or expectation

place. Diane James will be the next most interesting arrival when that

wondering. Since the birds are still being counted, why do the

Liberal Democrats think they have process. A lot of this is based on

their own personal data. Crucially, the postal codes. 14,000 of those.

A fairly sizable amount. Basically half of those voted. 14,000 postal

votes. The Liberal Democrats have seen this comeback. They are at

breaking extrapolations on that. For them, it is proof that their

efforts have worked. They are also Do we have any indication of when

we will get the result. No. We were told two o'clock. The reason why I

am less optimistic about that is because it is looking like the

battle for second and third could be close. Frankly, I do away there

clearly is a case to go to the returning officer and ask for it

every count. There are 40 candidates on the ballot paper. It

is taking a lot of time to count. It is 121. We are on the same time

zone so far. A UN must Eastleigh has declared independence. --

unless. See if you can speed up the clock. To a clock is increasingly

ambitious. Is there going to be a recount? What you are telling us is

that if there is going to be a recount, it is your understanding

it is likely to not be to decide the winner, but to decide who comes

second or third. The Liberal Democrats are confident they have

won this by 2000 or more. The very close race is to be the contested

second and third. It is going to be a big issue for David Cameron. It

could be a victory for its UK i P. - match UKIP. It could be very bad

for David Cameron. The closeness of the competition for second and

third is why we may get a recount. We had a weekend for the Bull

Democrats to see if they could hold their deposit. Who knows? That

Shearer coming from stage right is because Dan James has arrived. --

Diane James. We can see the posters. Stick with it down there. John,

tell me, is it uncommon to have a recount, not because there is an

argument of doubt over who has come first, but because they want to

make sure they came second and third? Very surprised if the

returning officer will entertain very much in the way of a recount

simply to decide who is second. Only two things should require a

recount. If there is doubt about which candidate is first, the

second is if there is a question mark as to whether a candidate has

5% of the vote. We're not expecting any body to be close to 5%. We do

not expect any of the minder candidates to get anything close to

5%. The only reason we should have a recount his if it in the end we

should discover the Liberal Democrat leader we're being told is

there is not. Who comes second and third is irrelevant. Especially for

the returning officer. The parties may be concerned, but I'm not sure

the returning officer will be concerned. He will be sending the

voting agents home after it is clear who won. We could be up until

six o'clock then because of returns. -- recount. Looking at the

circumstances under which this by- election took place, one caused by

a Liberal Democrat MP who had to stand down in scandal, then an

election fought in another little democrat scandal which resulted in

a crisis of confidence in the leadership. If you cannot win in

these circumstances, when can you? One thing we know about the ripple

Democrats is that they are good at local policies. -- Liberal

Democrats. There are 48 in the Eastleigh district. -- 40. The

Eastleigh constituency is only part of Eastleigh. You have every

council. Other only four seats. What is your.? 40 out of 40. On the

ground, you have got a councillor in every word. They know the

streets. They look to you as a local champion. The by-election is

all about local issues. And that becomes the deciding factor. That

may be what is happening. It is interesting listening to the talk

about how they know where the results are. The other pit that no-

one wants to talk about his people on the ground. People will have

seen that the verification process. Politicians always know when they

are there, roughly what is going on. You say the Liberal Democrats are

organised in Eastleigh in the District Council. UKIP is not that

will or can they are not that well organised. And yet, the search has

gone to them. As that report pointed out, they are quite

organised in that constituency. They had been standing people in

seats for ten years. That kind of voting can make a difference.

People look to a process that in by election. The Opposition will hope

to be the beneficiaries. That what happened in the last by-election.

Today, they are nowhere. People at a general election will look at

this. Can I give you some use? Our

colleagues in Radio 4 are on the ground in Eastleigh. They have been

told by Lib Dem sources that they have won by 2,500 votes. That came

in a few minutes ago when you were not looking. I will give you some

answers when you ask me. Why we do not tell me first? You had not

asked me. Does that say Nick Clegg's leadership. If he had lost

tonight, would it be in doubt? The by-election had nothing to do with

him. It had to do with Chris Huhne. That is unanswered. We're having

inquiries. For me, we want to win the seat. That is important. I seem

to remember we won several seats in the last Parliament. I think the

interesting second point as far as us holding on, if these people were

to be very close or had overtaken first of these guys, it is a

serious crisis for the Tories. Labour have a big question to come

Will not just doing it in the south. We're doing it in the north as well.

Our place in the opinion polls has not moved. I thought we would have

a slight dip for a few weeks and come back. We have not moved at all.

You have not done it in the south, in a seat that has traditionally

been a Tory seat. You him go on for years women by-election seat and it

will still secured 80 years to get Come the general of action, we have

a choice. There is what people will have to bear in mind. Do you think

the result tonight will be an endorsement of the prime minister?

Clearly, we are mid-term, with over two used to go into the next

election. We have cut a quarter of the deficit. One million extra jobs

created, five times as many jobs being created in the public sector.

We have not finished the job, but when we have... When we are nearer

to finishing the job in a couple of years' time, we would go to the

polls in whatever position we're in. There will be a record to stand on.

If you go to the country in 2015 say the commission has done a good

job, as Simon Hughes says, it is a coalition. If people and easily

have done a -- if people in Eastleigh thought to have done a

good job... Why on earth would they vote for you? I was reading quotes

about how important are easily was for re-election in 1994. Our

argument is that we have achieved a loss in coalition. If we govern or

Aaron we will do a lot more. We will sort out our relationship with

the EU. We will do things are very important for British people.

big speech at the beginning of the year was meant to sort out these

problems and prevent the drift towards you kipper. I have been

sitting here listening to this smoothing over what is a huge

disaster for the Prime Minister. Are you really saying that the

people who have been reported, you go through a long list of people,

are you really saying that after this result, if you haven't won it

or you have come behind, will babysitting happy, thinking that

this is a resounding endorsement of the party? And let me just

interrupted. The Labour candidate is now arriving. A smile on his

face. It does look as though he has come forth. He may well have come

forth. Eastleigh is not on a target list. It is a by-election. If we

were going to win this seat... is a projection that does not mean

anything. The fact is that opposition parties are begins

Conservative governments. -- are up against will stop tonight you'll

come forth. They have thrown everything at it. They have got 40

out of 40 council laws. You just said you have shadow cabinet

ministers. We have not had any particular presence or activity on

the ground for decades. We are starting for a lower base. We have

established an organisation from which we can branch out. We have

made contact with 20,000 voters. You started from a low base and has

got lower. He came third last time, they were coming lower. We do not

know the results yet. We may well have come forth. But we do not know.

Before you go on, I am being told that Nigel Farage is saying they

have come second. I am giving you my sources. At least second, he is

saying. I your sources telling you anything? I have had no-one pass me

a note. That is the first I have heard. If we have come second,

there is fantastic. The government we have got now 'Harry Potter' now

that David Cameron has given a speech, Europe will be the centre

point of the election. Nobody was going out today and voting on the

issue of Europe. Largely speaking it was local issues. If you were

right, doesn't make sense to vote for a party who has published a

Bill which provides the referendum, or to vote for a party of protest

in order to allow Labour back in? I think the choice is very different

from a by-election. Before you do, can I just you, because it may not

have dawned and you, that it looks like you have not won, it looks

like you have not even come second. It looks like you may have come

third, is that not a disastrous performance for your party? We will

wait to see the result. It looks like it is quite close. As a by-

election, people are voting for a local candidate. Why would anyone

be amazingly surprised, given that the last by-election any majority

government one was in 1982, during the Falklands war. There is the

last time a party gained a seat in government. It doesn't happen very

often. It is not terribly surprising when people look at the

serious issues of the day it may explain why he did not come first.

-- it may explain why you did not come first. The Lib Dems are

empowered. People will look for somewhere else to go. This is how

things work force of it was clearly a contest between Labour and the

Lib Dems. We have the four constituencies. The viewers will

make up their minds. There were to show you what David said to be a

I asked if he would be serious if he came third. If the party does

well, and the Lib Dems hold onto the seat, is it a crisis? If we

came third it would be a crisis. It is a close second it will also be

uncomfortable. It is not going to dislodge David Cameron. The simple

truth is it will make things more uncomfortable. A crisis for Cameron.

It is not that much of a crisis. We want to win every election.

didn't say it would be a crisis if he came second. He said it could be

a crisis for the Conservative leader if he came third. But maybe

what to wisteria at today. Mid-term you make difficult decisions.

You're making hard cuts. Contrary to what has happened in many other

by-elections for the governing party, it looks very close. It is

not a collapse in the main governing party's vote. We may

bounce back. There are two issues he will have to confront. If you

have come third or squeezed in its second, it means that these guys

were not just be a serious challenge, but it will cause your

party great grief. As the rest of us have said, David Cameron was

meant to sort out the rep problem and put these guys in their box.

The possibility of mutating other seats goes down considerably. -- of

the new taking. They did very well. They are taking votes of you.