By-election Special This Week

Tonight on This Week, as the King of Spain abdicates,

and the Queen opens Parliament, we raise our own Royal Standard.

No chance of our Queen abdicating, but how far is the stability of the

The Queen has much more staying power

Her Maj even got a new set of wheels for this year's procession

Andrew Rawnsley looks at the cabinet fight for the Tory crown.

This week was supposed to be about the coalition's final lawmaking,

instead it became consumed by the fight for succession to King David.

And as the Queen and Prince Philip head to Normandy for the 70th

War-baby and Shadows guitar legend Hank Marvin will be

People say you should never meet your heroes, which is why I am so

glad I'm appearing on This Week. We mean it, man, we are programmer

crew. On the day of the D-Day anniversary,

we bring you our version of the longest day, the longest night.

Because not only do we have our regular hum-drum round-up and review

of the week's political events, with all the deep insight and astute

analysis you'd expect from those who've served at the very highest

levels of government - and very lowest levels of the shadow

public health team - but we also intend to force-feed you a veritable

Miliband bacon sandwich of extended by-election coverage, as we power-on

through to the small hours with live coverage,

Some things are new to others as well, even if we try to hide it. As

we power on into the small hours, with live coverage, debate and maybe

even the results from the city that never sleeps, the Big Apple of these

Midlands. Newark, Newark, so good, it then named you twice.

Speaking of those vagabond shoes, longing to stray,

I'm joined on the sofa tonight by two people whom money can't buy.

Think of them as the Qatari World Cup bid and the Susannah Reid

I speak, of course of #sadmanonatrain

Michael Portillo, and, back by absolutely no public demand

Your moment of the week? Well, on Saturday night, Mary Soames died.

She was someone I had the privilege to have met several times. She was

the last surviving child of Winston Churchill. She was born in 1922. She

was, therefore, a young adult when Winston Churchill became Prime

Minister in 1940. She assumed a certain number of duties with him.

Remarkable to think that this woman had attended the pot stand

conference in Berlin, the end of World War II, with Winston

Churchill. By the way, she inherited his sense of public duty. She was a

splendid woman in every way. Quite extraordinary to think that, until

last Saturday, we have this very intimate link with Winston

Churchill. Our greatest Prime Minister, our greatest moment in

British history. Gone. It was actually a private meeting in

Westminster, the title was Getting Under The Skin Of Ukip. And academic

came and spoke. I don't necessarily think UKIP will be material to the

results of the next election. But I realised that they gave some of my

Labour colleagues in the North a scare. In places like the

north-east, the Tees Valley, they outpolled in a lot of areas. The

academic was talking about UKIP and characteristics. UKIP is a symptom

of something. It is not the cause of anything. Even if we win next year,

the Labour Party has to look at all of these people in former industrial

areas. Nothing has replaced those industries and those people feel

very left behind. We will see how the by-election goes as well. Before

we get stuck into the usual drivel, exciting news. No, Michael is not

going on a round the world train journey. In exactly five weeks,

myself, Diana, Michael and his faithful manservant Fabiola will be

loading up the this week transit van with the purple sofa and lunar in

and taking the show on the road to Edinburgh, for a special Scottish

edition of the show. For some stupid reason, we will be recording it in

front of a live audience of programmer remains and Michael

Portillo fan boys. -- This Week nerds. If you can get to Edinburgh

and would like to join us, and if you come from Glasgow you will not

need a passport, to witness the full horror of This Week, up close and

personal, apply for tickets on the website. Bribes are readily

acceptable, e-mail them to This Week, courtesy of Qatar.

Now, it's been a busy week for royal toadies - sorry, correspondents.

On Monday, the 76-year-old king of Spain announced he was

abdicating after nearly 40 years on ?el trono? for a new generation,

Well, when it comes to energy, it's hard to beat our own Queen,

still going strong at 88, who opened Parliament

Then she headed off to France for the D-Day ceremony.

So what is the health of our monarchy?

And to what extent does support for the institution actually come

We turned to royal historian, Kate Williams.

# Let me be your ruler # You can call me Queen bee. #

When we think of the British monarchy, we think a royal weddings,

jubilees, baby mania. It all seems pretty secure. Safe as palaces, in

fact. We look at countries like Spain, whose moniker abdicated and a

slight cloud, and feel rather smug. -- Monica. Our monarchy is in rude

health. Underneath it all, it's much more

fragile than that. All of this love is dependent on one individual one

who is 88 and not getting any younger. The Queen looks set to be

our longest reigning monarch, surpassing Victoria. Such is the

love to her that most Republicans privately concede that there is not

much point trying to up the recruitment while she's around.

Monarchs need to in the favour of the people they rule over, and that

support can swing when there is a new individual on that gilded yellow

throne. Also, public support is much harder to keep in these days of

social media, where nothing is hidden. The Queen is seen as

thrifty, a war baby who never forgot the value of money. But the

grandchildren are going to have to be careful about posh holidays on

foreign islands and renovations to palaces.

be careful about posh holidays on foreign islands and renovations One

of the reasons why the King of Spain was so unpopular was because he was

seen as out of touch, going on a lavish elephant hunt in Botswana

when Spain was in recession. The Queen's real skill is seeming

politically neutral, not meddling. That, and constant public

appearances, is what people want to see from their monarchy. Charles

will have to remember this. William is probably going to have to step it

up if they want the consent of the people. It is actually precariously

fragile. And back to our own little Castle

pub. Welcome to the programme. It's a great pub. 25 years ago the

monarchy was in crisis. Today it is more popular and stable than it has

been for several generations, probably since the Second World War.

Why? You are right, commensurate to when the Queen came to the throne.

When news came through that Edmund Hillary had beaten Everest. It's

partly due to her, her longevity, the respect she garnered. It's a

complete contrast to what we saw in the 90s, with the succession of

disasters, the marriage break-ups, the discussions about the Queen

paying tax, the arguments over who would pay for Windsor Castle and the

death of Princess Diana. Personality has a lot to do with it. The

monarchy was at its most unpopular in modern times when Edward, Andrew,

Fergie, they were regarded as upper-class brats. Charles was

reviled for his treatment of Diana. Now they like the Queen, so the

monarchy is popular again? I don't think it is personality. If we knew

as much about the Queen and her private life as we knew about Prince

Charles, I suspect it would be different. Do you think there are

things about the Queen's private different. Do you think there are

possibly tell you this on live television. Spilled the beans! She

has the longevity, she has the mystique, because she spent most of

her life in a media world when people kept things secret. When she

passes away, I think there will be a big debate on the future of the

monarchy. She also had that mystique when the royal family was very

unpopular. I suggest it was because we saw a number of royal individuals

that the country didn't like. It turned a number of people against

the monarchy. I agree. I think it is worse than any of you are saying,

somebody has to be consistent over 40, 50, 60 years. Take the King of

Spain. He did some even more remarkable than the Queen has ever

done, he had the idea, when the dictatorship came to an end, of

bringing in a constitutional monarch and forced it through. When there

was a coup in 1981 comment he went on television, he said, this coup

must end. The heroism disappeared because, at the end, he went on this

elephant hunt in Botswana, and also he has a son-in-law who is charged

with some corrupt practices. Corruption is very corrosive. I

think corruption is even worse than marital problems. Luckily, the

British Royal family has not been touched by corruption in modern

times. The Royal family in Spain, I know you know a lot about it, was

very popular after what the King had done to save democracy, particularly

since a lot of Spaniards thought he had been a creature of Franco and he

turned out to be on the side of... He not only saved democracy, he

actually invented, he independently thought to himself, that is not what

I am going to do, I am going to bring in a constitutional monarchy.

He risked attempts at assassination, attempts at being ousted by the

forces. As time went on, he became less popular, and then maybe today

even unpopular? And the monarchy in Spain today is not as popular as it

was? No, although luckily the Crown Prince is very popular. I suspect

the popularity of the monarchy will be restored. Remember, the monarchy

was only restored with Juan Carlos. A previous generation of Spaniards,

including my father, decided to get rid of them. The Queen is widely

credited with putting the show back on the road after Diana's death. Is

that accurate? I think what she end was the respect of the people,

through this longevity. Particularly from not being seen in meddling in

politics. The fact that they stay out of politics, that they are above

it. For that reason, we did see this historic state visit earlier this

year from the Irish President and his wife, who came to Britain and

Gerry Adams came to dinner at Windsor Castle. That would not have

been possible if she had been more outspoken in the 70s and 80s. So,

she does function in this way. Some of us were joking, imagine if the

Queen wrote her own speech. And another thing! It is always written

for her. That Queen would have to say her thoughts? The terrible thing

about the Queen is the consistency, she has never put a foot wrong. Some

people around her have put the foot wrong, I know from some of the

stories that we did in the Sunday Times. It's often been said that

things could change when the Queen goes. I have heard that said. I'm

beginning to think that may not be true. I think

beginning to think that may not be true. I you'll see a big discussion

about the future of the monarchy, as will be the case if she gives way to

Prince Charles. Where the debate will start is the Commonwealth. We

have seen this talked about when William and Kate were on their tour

and the New Zealand Prime Minister said, we'll not have a New

Zealand-born head of state while Elizabeth is on the throne. You say,

that there are few people more passionate about the monarchy than

people in the Commonwealth. What about Jamaica. It is higher and

higher. That is where the debate will start and not Britain. I was in

Australia when Kate and William were there. I was a republican myself. I

was teasing my Australian republican friends they had lost it. Won't want

to come to your party now. It fell before William and... I would

suggest this is kind of a new crisis for the monarchy when the Queen

goes. For republicans it is sad because William and Kate have given

it their passport for the 21st century. So long as they can show

consistency. I think you are entirely right, they have to make

sure they are as devoted to their public duties as the Queen has done.

There's no difficulty in that. Constant public duty... A life

sentence. Prince Charles who was deeply

unpopular during his separation with Diana and then in the aftermath as

well and Camilla was deeply unpopular as well, even that has

changed. I think he's gained a lot. Of course the young people know

don't remember 1997. They were born after that. This is a whole new

constituency. I think, he got a lot of popularity through William and

Harry, who are much loved, as you say, much loved in the Commonwealth

and here. He looks like a very good father to them which has been part

of the recovery. The official line is Camilla will not be crowned

Queen. That may change when we come to a coronation. It looks like it

will survive. It is for the British people. You are British. Not just a

humble backbench MP. Is there going to be a vote?

That is the thing about monarchy. You know, there is a

well-established point of view that the mon nor ki, the people remains a

linchpin. Of the class system S that your view? It would be hard if you

had any knowledge of British history to demure from that view. We need a

dictionariry. The question for the British people is how to find the

alternative. In Australia there was the vote. It was say, either you

have the monarchy or we in the Parliament choose you an

alternative. Basically we have to say... That is always a strong

argument. Will bit a celebrity. That is what people worry about. Snoo

That was the -- That was the view in Australia. The idea of having not

just a Prime Minister but a President as a politician, they

didn't want. We will be saved from President

Boris Johnson! You see what I have to put up with

most weeks! It is late. Given how much you have

been drinking you are feeling peckish. If you Hank Marvin for some

Hank Marvin - you are in luck because waiting impatiently in the

Shadows Hank Marvin is here to satisfy all your Blue Nun moments.

If you are sad enough to want to join news Edinburgh on the evening

of July 10th for a special life audience of this show -- live

audience of this show, go to our website and tell us why you deserve

to be invited. If you cannot imagine anything worse, I am sure you will

let us know on Twitter and Facebook. Now, the Queen paraded in her brand

new carriage for the state opening of carriage. The body work is made

up of the Mary Rose. Didn't get very fair and fragments of Isaac Newton's

apple true. Just the usual bits and bobs any of would have in the

garage. When Andrew Rawnsley heard about it, he wanted his own carriage

all to himself. It may be a left-wing paper, but they like that

in the Observer. Here he is with his round-up of the political week.

Amazing what people chuck away these days! Uneasy lies the head that

wears the crown, or will not be in the case of the abbey kating king --

abdicating king Karloff and Eager. E king Carlos. Now his reign in Spain

comes to a sad, scandal-splattered end.

Abdication is currently a bit of a fashion among the more elderly

European monarchs, but not likely one to catch on here. Why should Liz

want to quit? After all royaling has its perks. There are worse ways of

getting to work than this! STEP TOE AND SON MUSIC.

A new state coach this was the 60th time that Her Majesty has trotted

down to Parliament. There to be beyoued, reading out the words put

into her mouth by one of her many Prime Ministers. Oh, Phillip, why do

they make me read out this rot? Legislation will be brought forward

to give those who have saved discretion over the use of their

retirement funds. 88-year-old pensioner, Liz, shows

retirement funds. 88-year-old wanting to of throw in her sector.

The wait goes on, Charles! From the Government's point of view,

the idea was to present a legislative programme just busy

enough to argue that the coalition still has change things to do before

the election. To count ter accusation that this is a -- counter

the allegation that this is a zombie Parliament. Talking of the living

dead! # I walk with a zombie

# # Last

Lord knows who dreamt up surreal photo opportunity! It was to

end talk that Vince Cable has been plotting to steal the tarnished

throne of Nick the Unsteady. No, me neither!

MUSIC For my money t most vibrant

contribution came from Portsmouth Tory, for one thing it was very

funny. This about advice given to her by the Royal Navy.

Fascinating though it was, I felt the lecture and practical

demonstration on how to of care for your penis and testicles in the

field, failed to appreciate that some of us attending had been issued

with the incorrect... LAUGHTER

That is surely a first, the word "Penis" raising its head. Ed

Miliband and David Cameron waved their slow goes at each other, to

the palace, please! It is wrong to pass on an

irresponsible burden of debt to our children. It is right that people

should keep more of the money they earn. The best route out of poverty

is work. A banking bill to support small business. A community bill to

devolve power. An immigration bill to stop workers being undercut. In

the wake of awful results in the local and Euro-elections, Number Ten

was relieved that the backbench peasants were not revolting and

things were remaining calm in Tory-land. Then May and Gove went

public with that row between them about who was to blame for failing

public with that row between them to tackle Islamist extremism in

schools. Jierks she is doing a lovely -- She is doing a lovely job.

I hope you enjoy the rest of the day.

No, no, absolutely not. We take a very firm line.

Now quarrels between ministers are not exactly unusual. It is the

snarling, spitting viciousness of this one which has angered Number

Ten and transfixed everyone else. Could the victorial be because both

might by thinking who might succeed. King Dave, the Hopping Mad - you

bet! Finally, the former king - Tony has

ruled himself out of becoming the next President of the European

Council. I am not a candidate, don't get my position mixed up with, this

that will not happen! No, he's not. That is a slightly different thing

from saying that he never wanted it. Of course he did. In some ways it is

a petty he will not get it. A pro-European who understands that

Europe needs reform could be good in the job. Instead, Tony will have to

continue trapsing the world, collecting money that makes a king's

ran some look like small change. -- ransom look like small change.

Prince Andrew Rawnsley there in the London carriage.

Karloff and Eager and The Ostler Horse and Carriage Company, we are

like an American TV show, suits by, tie by... Anyway, we can go over to

Alex Forsyth, she is sponsored by the New yark chamber of -- Newark

Chamber of Commerce. The Conservatives are defending a

16,000-plus majority. UKIP, not Labour, is regarded as the main

challenger. Are we expecting a Tory win?

Do you know who, Andrew, anybody who has ever worn a blue rosette has

been sent here in the last few weeks. We are told 1,000 activists

were here today, campaigning and my colleagues who are much more

experienced than I in these type of things have said they have never

seen the like of it. Four visits from the Prime Minister himself.

With all that hype they'll want to hold this seat. It is fair to say

that the feeling here is the talk is how much of a dent UKIP can make in

that majority of 16,000, as opposed to whether or not they will take the

seat off them I would be pretty spectacular if they did. The

Conservatives are trying to manage expectations to some degree. They

don't want to be seen as complacent. They say they are taking nothing for

granted, which is why they have put all this effort into this. Not least

of course if Nigel Farage got that foot into Parliament, that would be

pretty spectacular. A personal question, personal for me, can you

tell us when the result will be announced? On about my second glass

of wine - I don't know is the short answer. Somewhere between 3am-4am.

It could go on way beyond that. What! We could be going on until

Breakfast television. The issue for the Liberal Democrats is whether or

not they lose their deposit? If you look at the recent polls that

is in question. They have lost their deposits in eight of the

by-elections we've had since the coalition was formed in 2010.

Dismaltimes for thesmt the word "beleaguered" has been used a lot.

They don't expect to do much better here tonight. The big question will

be whether or not they hold on to the deposit. It would be bad news

for them if they didn't. They polled 20% of the vote in 2010. It would be

a big comedown to lose their deposit. We hope if you are on the

wine it is Blue Nun. Speaking of the Lib Demes, Miranda joins us. I don't

wish to intrude... Let's come to this public spat, as it became

between Michael Gove and ther reis a May. I thought May was the

aggressor. The letter that came to light was written by her. It was

written in trenchen about terms. I don't remember writing in such terms

to another minister. A series of questions that were spat out. Then

clearly the letter was leaked. Then it appeared on the Home Office

website. At 1am! This was not just a row that leaked

out because some journalist had cleverly found their way into the

story. This was a massive piece of aggression. I think the Prime

Minister ought to reflex on that. disagreement, who do you side with?

Probably a little bit with the Home Office, as opposed to the Department

for Education. I'm afraid to say I don't have a great deal of respect

for either department at an official level. I don't think either of these

are stellar departments. We are dealing here with an extraordinarily

serious issue. I would hope that really high calibre people can be

brought to bear on it, whether they are in the Home Office or the

Department for Education. In fact, they need to be in both departments

because it is partly an issue of Home Office control, policing and

intelligence, and partly eight job making sure we know what is going on

in schools. I hope somehow that these terrible questions, like why

was nothing done about this, who knew what when? They don't have to

be asked again in the future. Do you agree with what some commentators

have been saying, that actually this is about playing for position? It is

about playing for a Tory leadership. Theresa May has her eyes

on the prize, particularly if it goes pear shaped for Mr Cameron in

May of next year. Mr Gove, we understand, is a big supporter of

George Osborne, who could be the main rival? I don't entirely take

that interpretation. I think it is largely about the issues. I have a

feeling that Theresa May is genuinely angry about this, thinks

something terrible has been happening in schools for a long

time. So, I understand that it is good for journalist, to put it in

those terms. Honestly, I think this has been counter-productive for her

in terms of her leadership hopes. A lot of senior Tories I spoke to were

not happy, the aggression and the clear leaking of the latter, putting

it on the website. What is your take on this? I think it is about the

letter, but there is a sense of a war going on for the camera in

succession. That is part of it. I worked in the Home Office as a

graduate trainee. Historically, it is a graveyard, and she has come out

of it looking better than any Home Secretary I can remember. I want to

get onto the really important issue. How often do Nick Clegg and

Vince Cable share a pint in a pub, at 11am? I would imagine not very

often. You might be right. I think that was clear from the expressions

on everybody's face during that rather unfortunate photo

opportunity, to demonstrate unity, to demonstrate their devotion to the

pub trade. Which numpty thought? Which ones agreed to do it! It was

beginning to Dyke down, we knew things were not great, but it ceased

to have legs as a story. No, it was given legs by people at the heart of

the story. A gift to every caption competition in Fleet Street. Leaving

all of the journalists is outside to get soaked in the rain was not a way

to India. Who remembers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown eating ice cream

together? But that was in an election campaign. People do very

stupid things, didn't Margaret Thatcher cradle a sheep? May be

Theresa May and Michael Gove need to share a pint or some ice cream and

demonstrate unity. Because of Vince Cable's flat-footed mesh and that of

his henchmen, Nick Clegg has got away with a disastrous electoral

result and is securing the leadership. I would pretty much

agree with that. Within that week, any sort of Vince Cable campaign

became completely disabled, so it's now gone away. Not to say the whole

issue is resolved in terms of the strategy. Doesn't it come back onto

the agenda again? I'm not saying he's going to be kicked out. Haven't

you got the worst of all possible worlds? You will stay as leader, but

the issue continues to rumble on. It could do, but I think the summer

will be dominated with issues to do with the Labour Party, the Labour

leadership strategy. But the question has not gone away at all.

There will be rumblings and soul-searching. All four parties are

going to fight the next election with the present leaders. All of

them have issues about strategy as well. I think that's right. If we

all agree, it's almost certainly wrong! You must be encouraged by

your old mate Tony Blair, President of Europe? I thought you were going

to say I should be encouraged with him agreeing with me about not

eating into the gutter with UKIP on Europe. And immigration. It is not

going to be President of Europe, I don't think that the other European

leaders would buy it. Would he be the right person? Theoretically,

would he be a good person to be President of... What would he be

President of, the commission, not the council? No, he would be far too

powerful a figure. British Prime Minister for ten years, a global

figure, still somewhat in his prime. For these reasons he is very well

suited to date, no serving Prime Minister wants him to be President.

A lot of people have taken interest in what he had to say on heel

reform, the response to UKIP. He made some interesting interventions.

We were talking in earlier about Theresa May's potential as a Tory

leader. There is a lot of admiration for Theresa May amongst Blairites,

actually. If we do come to a conversation about the Tory

leadership, she might have broader appeal, which might counteract any

feeling... Well, not Blairites, as if they are a subsection of

humanity. He's not going to become President. He now regards himself as

someone with something to contribute to the British debate, because that

has not been true for a while? I think he year and is to be a

political player. He lost office, in political terms, when he was

relatively young. Even know he is making this money in America, he

yearns for the one thing he cannot have, to be a player on the British

political scene. Well, we all do that. Are there informal talks

between Lib Dems and Labour? Because everybody was caught on the hop last

time, people are determined to be prepared this time in all three

parties. So, that's a yes. According to Lembit Opik, former

ladies shoe salesman, I think that is true, reality TV show and Lib Dem

MP, former, Nick Clegg has lost credibility in the eyes of his party

and the country. Oh, cheeky! How would he know? In the face of

disastrous performances, it takes guts for anybody to admit they are

still a knicker throwing Cleggmaniac. As he marches his

hapless platoon towards the sound of electoral gunfire and almost certain

political death, we decided it was time to pay respects to those we

admire so much and put heroes in this week's Spotlight.

Don't let the Clark Kent specs fool you, Hank Marvin is

Inspiring a generation of musicians with his famous Fender, Hank was

We've all been in a heroes mood this week.

Her Maj announced a new Heroism Bill in her Queen's Speech, to give legal

protection to good Samaritans who intervene in public disputes.

Where a person acts heroically, responsibly or for the benefit

of others, this will be taken into account by the courts.

But how fitting the bill should be introduced

It's 70 years since the Normandy landings and a time to salute fallen

Sadly, we may never be able to salute the tank man of Tiananmen.

25 years on from the bloody Chinese massacre, the identity of this

Yet it doesn't diminish the power of his actions.

Whereas the identity of Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl is now

The American soldier held in Afghan captivity for years had

his hero's welcome cancelled yesterday, amid accusations he had

Strength, bravery or just a kick-ass riff?

And do we all just need someone to look up to?

The man he probably has guitar hero written on his passport is with us

now. Great to see you. Do we all need heroes? I think so. I think we

need people to look up to two motivators to do something better in

our lives. It doesn't matter in what capacity, whether it be music,

politics, whatever. We need someone that we think has set the standard.

Can we achieve that? Not always, but at least it gives us something to

aim for. Something that we wish we could do ourselves? I think that's

true. You said you should never meet your heroes, but here you are

meeting Diane and Michael, you have broken your rule. Why? Because we

are likely to be disappointed? I think, in some cases, we are. We can

meet people that we think are absolutely wonderful in their

capacity as, let's say, an entertainer, for example. We meet

them, but as a person, they are a pain in the backside. They are rude,

arrogant. That is a disappointment. Often completely true of movie

stars. Over the years, I have... Years ago we did a thing in

Florida, we met Years ago we did a thing in

a very charming man, very generous in his conversation. And

a very charming man, very generous someone in Paris who did not say

much, but looked great. You became a hero to a lot of people,

particularly a lot of aspiring musicians, because you were the

famous guitar player from this country. A lot of people thought, if

famous guitar player from this he can do that, you don't have to be

the lead singer to become famous, you can be the guitarist? You can be

spotty, skinny and wear glasses. And not move very much? But you inspired

a lot of people. Kids were practising their guitar. Did you

know that at the time? No. We knew that it was having an impact. Often,

in shows, we would see four guys. One would be wearing glasses.

Seriously. Bleached hair, wearing the same clothes. It was only much

later on, probably the late 60s, early 70s, when I bumped into a few

people, by then quite famous in their own right, who owned up. They

came out of the closet and said, you are why I started playing guitar.

Brian May, Peter Townsend, people like that. All of the famous names

of the 60s? The interesting thing to me, we all start, I think, by

copying the people that we admire. That is part of the learning

process. Some of us continue to copy. But the important thing is to

find your own voice, your own style. I was fortunate in doing

that, probably by accident, more than anything else. And a very

distinctive sound. I think so. Brian May, Jeff Beck, stream the

distinctive. They found their own voice. The young man in front of the

tank in Tiananmen Square, regarded as a hero, or a very brave person.

The mystique of his heroism is added to by the fact we don't know what

has happened to him. You don't have to know who a hero is. It's so

moving to see that footage and know nothing about him. At that moment,

he could have been crushed. The tragedy is, in the next few hours,

hundreds and possibly thousands of people were killed. I think of

heroes as being people who kind of know what to do when the most

difficult moment comes. One example was the King of Spain, when there

was that coup going on, on television, in his uniform. I

mentioned to a chill. When Churchill -- Churchill. If the French Navy

falls into German hands, it will be a disaster. He knows that it has to

be either handed to the British or son. He sinks the French Navy. To

know what to do in a situation like that is extraordinary. Sometimes

ordinary people can step up and be heroin. After 9/11,

ordinary people can step up and be those firemen, working-class New

Yorkers, who went into the building to save people, they were genuine

heroes. Sometimes heroism comes out when ordinary people find themselves

in extraordinary situations. When we talked about heroes in the sense we

are discussing, they are not heroes in that way. They are people who do

something we might admire and maybe want to emulate, obtain that

standard. They are not heroes in a way that you are talking about, the

real heroes. Who was your childhood hero? One of them died this week, my

Angela. -- Mayo Angelo. Bbc.co.uk/saturdaykitchen There are

many people I admired and wanted to you later. No one in particular.

Apart from my wife, of course, a real hero, putting up with me. What

are you up to now? real hero, putting up with me. What

are you up to I have a new album. It has come in at Number 10 in the

charts and we are promoting it. It is the sound of summer. We are

grateful for your time tonight. Now, unusually for us, that's NOT

all your lot for tonight, folks... Because with the Newark by-election

providing more excitment than David Cameron eating a bacon

sandwich with a silver spoon, there Instead, I'm going to sit tight here

in the studio and in a moment I'll be joined by four politicians who've

drawn their respective party's short We'll be chewing over all

the by-election issues and staying So, if you like your politics

by-election style, stick with us. Michael and Diane,

best you leave now and let It started with a staying, posing as

fake lobbyists, the BBC secretly recorded Patrick Mercer appearing to

offer himself for sale, in breach of the rules. One year later and just

before he was to be served with a six-month ban, he resigned. I am

ashamed. I will do what I can to put it right. This is for the

constituency of Newark, I will resign my seat in Nottinghamshire,

and I hope that my successor, who has been

and I hope that my successor, who has well and carefully chosen, will

be the Conservative candidate. There were 12 hours of speculation about

the UKIP candidate, would it be Nigel Farage? The answer was no. I

do not come from there. I do not want to be parachuted in. I have no

connections there will stop instead, UKIP selected Roger Helmer who had

previously courted controversy with comments about homosexuality and

date rape. The party hopes to capitalise on their victory in the

European elections. We have our second MEP... He opened up a shop in

the area. Conservatives trooped to the area as well. Every Tory MP was

told to visit at least three times to support Robert Jenrick who had

worked on the business side of an auction house. The Prime Minister

dropped in four times, famously accompanied on one visit by Boris

Johnson. They were keen to investigate the baked goods in the

area. The Labour candidate tried to get some attention in what was

becoming a two horse race in the eyes of the media. The Liberal

Democrat candidate managed to summon some activists not sobbing about the

state of their party. It was all happening in place steeped in

history, especially the English Civil War. This is where the former

Prime Minister William Gladstone was first elected as an MP, which gave

me an idea. Who is your favourite prime from history? William

Gladstone was fantastic. -- Prime Minister. He did not stay here long.

I do not think I have a favourite. All of them have had flaws. My

favourite politician was Paddy Ashdown who should have been Prime

Minister. It has to be Winston Churchill. He made a difference in

the last century that probably no other Prime Minister has made. I

think it would be Clement Attlee. After seeing a world that was

fighting he realised he had to rebuild the country, I was proud of

the NHS. You did not say David Cameron. He has been supportive. We

will not see Prime Minister Nigel Farage are we? I would not be too

sure. I think Gordon Brown, Tony Blair, James Callaghan did great

things. I popped into this shop where they had revived an ancient

tradition, by-election bonds in party colours. More baked goods --

buns. Did you know the by-election was

happening. I do not take much notice. Is there a by-election

fever? Not really. Welcome to view from the News Channel. -- viewers.

Voters in the Nottinghamshire constituency went to the polls today

to pick a successor to Patrick Mercer who resigned after being in

the scandal. We are expecting a result around 3am, so a little while

to go and that is only provided there are no recounts. With us for

to go and that is only provided the long march we have a caffeine

fuelled panel. the long march we have a caffeine

us. Diane James from UKIP joins us. She fought the Eastleigh

by-election. She is now an MEP. We have the Conservative Business

Minister Matt Hancock and the Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats,

Malcolm Bruce. He is threatening to leave before the end of the

programme. We will drug him with extra strong coffee. So, welcome,

who is going to win? We will wait and see! Give us a prediction!

who is going to win? We will wait polls are fairly solid for us. We

have worked extremely hard. We have had a superb candidate in Robert

Jenrick. The Tory MPs have done a lot of work. All of that I know,

what I do not know is who will win. You do not know. Who do you think

will win? I could not possibly say. You are here to say something! Will

UKIP win? I would love to see that. You are here to say something! Will

Do you think they will You are here to say something! Will

have a very good chance. You are here to say something! Will

horse race. This is a contest between the Conservatives and UKIP.

Labour is hear about the Liberal Democrats,

but I do not think they will have a nice evening. Is that a story

tonight, Labour is not in contention. This is

tonight, Labour is not in the government, the kind of seat

tonight, Labour is not in would sweep. They have won election

tonight, Labour is not in 's where the Tories had huge

majorities. I would 's where the Tories had huge

Tories to romp home in a seat like Newark. It is a different seat from

Tories to romp home in a seat like 1997. It is the 44th safest Tory

seat. I know it is a by-election, but we won by-elections in the

run-up to the 1997 election in more marginal places like Dudley. There

run-up to the 1997 election in more are other areas where the Liberal

Democrats were taking seats from the Tories, like Eastleigh. The first

by-election in Eastleigh... If this Tories, like Eastleigh. The first

was the run-up to 1997, you would win Newark tonight. We did not win

seats like that back then. The only question for the Liberal Democrats

is whether you hold onto your deposit or not. We realise we will

be squeezed. We know the Conservatives put out a letter

saying to Liberal Democrat voters, you're not going to win, help us

beat UKIP. That is appealing to liberal voters, it may work. I would

like to remind people, Labour lost their deposit in Eastleigh. We have

done it to other people and sometimes it happens to you. It is

difficult for other people to get the look in. We have lots to talk

about. Let us go there are now an set the scene. Accounts are mainly

held in these by-elections in anonymous looking sports halls. But

Newark and share would counsel have pulled out the stops will stop --

Sherwood. Our correspondent is spending the night in the sumptuous

Kelham Hall. Tell us about it. They said they had laid it on especially

for you. Just a fascinating fact about this majestic looking

building. This is were Charles the first surrendered during the English

Civil War. There has been talk about the parliamentarians descending on

Newark in the past few weeks, particularly the Conservatives. They

had 1000 activists on the ground and the prime minister visited. They

held nothing back. Labour said they threw everything at this. They are

not being complacent, they are quick to say that this is not a sure

thing. The feeling is that they will probably hold. People are saying it

is too early to call. Do we have any idea when we will get a result. I do

not see much counting going on? Accounting is going on. I can assure

you. It will be a long process will stop -- the counting. I am hoping to

get some sleep before dawn. Certainly here, a lot of people are

looking at the verification process. A few parties have made some

suggestions that this could be the Tories in first place, but UKIP will

come second, followed by Labour. We have heard from one source that the

Liberal Democrat vote will be demolished. It is interesting,

Labour are saying that their vote may have been affected by UKIP. They

are saying that the Conservatives have been asking people to vote for

them to try and block UKIP, so they are taking Labour and Liberal

Democrat votes to block UKIP. So, tactical voting going on. A mark of

how much the political landscape has changed. Good to hear they are

getting their excuses in first! Do not dare ahead to the hotel yet! Let

us look at the starting position for the four main parties based on the

results from the 2010 election. As you can see, the Conservatives got

more than 20,000 votes, they secured a very healthy majority of more than

16,000 over Labour. You will note how small UKIP's vote was. I think

we can expect that number to go up significantly tonight. Here is the

percentage share from four years ago. The Conservatives got more than

half the votes, whereas UKIP got under 4% of the vote. You can see

the swing required is 15.8% for Labour to take the seat. The polling

suggests that the bigger threat tonight will come from the party

that was fourth last time around. Let us join our expert, John

Curtice, we had chained him to a desk until we get a result. Just to

pick up a point that our Labour friend was making, saying that this

would be a difficult seat for Labour under normal circumstances, but a

swing of 15% is not unheard of. The truth is that they should be on

tenterhooks as to whether they will win the seat. That swing that they

would need, it is less than the Labour Party achieved in Norwich,

less than the Conservatives achieved in Norwich in the last Parliament,

less than Labour achieved in Dudley just before they won the 1997

election. When oppositions looked as though they are on course for

government, the kind of swing that is required for Labour to win has

been relatively common. To that extent, we have to ask ourselves,

why is it we are not asking the question, could Labour win this? It

is all of a piece, as a result of the recent elections, Labour do not

have the enthusiasm and depth of support in the electorate that make

them look like an alternative government. Coming to the

Conservatives who hold the seat and UKIP, the challenger, if we look at

the EEC by-election result, how do we use that to judge the performance

of UKIP tonight? Eastleigh is an interesting benchmark. It is the

best UKIP performance in any parliamentary by-election. They got

just under 28% of the vote. I think, in truth, if UKIP get more than they

got in Eastleigh and given that unlike Eastleigh, they do not have

much of a record of local activity in Newark until the last couple of

years, I think they will be able to claim a moral victory and I think we

should remember that the claims if UKIP do not win this constituency,

it would be a big reverse, they are exaggerated. They need a 25% swing

to win and there have only been eight by-election since 1945 were

the swing has been of that size or bigger and the last time that

happened was in Bradford when George Galloway won. The truth is, that

kind of scale of swing that UKIP need to win the seat is so

spectacular, that in truth, I do not think we should presume that if UKIP

fail to get it, that is an indication they have performed

badly. If they get the highest vote share in any by-election tonight,

buy out polling Eastleigh, they should be satisfied.

Let's assume that UKIP don't win but come a second, what share of vote

would be decent for them? If UKIP get 30% of the vote, they could

regard it as a remarkable result. John Curtis, don't go away, thank

you for that. Diane James, what do you say to that, 30% of the vote? I

would be delighted. I would like more. But it would take away the

best by-election result for UKIP. Remind me of the share? Just below

28% at Eastleigh and 3% off the Liberal Democrats. But we were

talking 1,500 votes. But you set the benchmark. You came

a strong second in Eastleigh. So Roger Helmer, he has to come a very

strong second and even stronger second? I would be delighted to hand

that Mantell over to him. Would you have a better chance of

coming a strong second, if that is what you do, we don't know, you

could win, what if you had picked a stronger candidate? It is like

saying that the Conservatives should have put up Boris Johnson into the

seat. We went through a process. We are happy with Roger Helmer. He is

well-known in that part of the world. Defected to UKIP a few years

back from Conservative. He comes with heavy baggage and

views, controversial views from in some ways a by-gone age? There are a

lot of people that share the views. He is not ashamed of them. The

insult then is to the voters if you are saying because he has made a

point that another, sorry, others agree with that point that others

should be criticising. Do you share the views on funding

gay cure therapy? I am not sure that he said that.

We say to the person who wants to change from a man to a woman, or

vice versa, to do that on the NHS. We say to this guy, that is wicked

you cannot think like that? I don't think he said that. I will be happy

to be quoted. We have the quote from the Daily

Mail? It has not been challenged? I think it has. His press officer has.

His? Ours. Do you agree with Roger Helmer that

some rape victims bear responsibility for what happened to

them? Those are Roger Helmer's views. Not mine. They are not my

views. OK.

Is it not true to say, as the spin doctors have been making out, if you

stop UKIP from winning tonight that you stop UKIP in its tracks, that is

not true, is it? Well, I think that a victory for the Conservatives will

be the first time we have won a by-election as a governing party in

25 years. Being able to win a by-election when you are in

Government, when there are protest votes about. That is a big

achievement. When you are in a desert, a cup of

water is grateful. But it does not stop UKIP in its tracks? Of course,

UKIP have been saying that they are going to win. Roger Helmer said he

thought he would win. When? Diane got close to it now.

Even before then, this weekend, Nigel Farage said he would turn what

was an earthquake into... You are confusing the European elections.

No, after the European elections, he said that was an earthquake, now

something even greater. There is a difference. UKIP have

been saying that they are going to win. I think that the first

by-election victory by Conservatives in Government for 25 years will be a

big milestone if we get there. So, job done. That is it. The UKIP

insurgent is over? No, we have 11 months to the general election. That

is what the eyes will turn to. We have to ensure we get as many people

voting for news the general election as possible.

If UKIP win. It is obviously a political earthquake if they take

the by-election. We discuss the consequences of that if it is

looking likely but if they come a decent second, where does that leave

UKIP now in what has become in England, joining Scotland, Wales and

Northern Ireland, as a four-party system? It is a multiparty system.

But there is a big mountain to climb to become credible as a Westminster

party. They have not an MP elected. Come a general election they will

have a difficult job finding seats where they can win against that

background. I think that we are having a torrid time. I admit it.

But we have the strongest recovery in the western world that the

coalition has built. Which the Liberal Democrats have been a

radical part of. You saw the article in the talking talking saying this

is the most radical governments we have had, and the Liberal Democrats

have been a big part of that reform. We believe that people recognising

and looking at the general election, to calculate whether to throw it

away with letting UKIP in, or indeed, even Labour. I think there

is a lot to fight for. I understand but if UKIP win

tonight, it stops the UKIP insurgent in its tracks? UKIP have to prove

themselves. Winning a by-election is one way, not winning one sets them

back. They still have no voice in Westminster. I am not sure how much

of a voice in the European Parliament, given the record they

have. A lot more MEPs than you? But they

have not turned up in the past and done all sorts of strange things.

They have a job to do to show that they are serious and rather than to

some extent a party that is having a laugh at British politics and a lot

of the characters are characters. A lot of people like that, they

think it makes the establishment look foolish.

You used to have a few character that got you to win by-elections.

Some you may not prefer to mention? I would not go there, that is more

difficult. But they were characters? When I say

characters, I am a talking about people who say things outrageously,

an then are disowned by the party, or the party is happy to let the

echo of what they say, to say if you like the views, Diane said it

before, people like the views, I find distasteful but then you can

vote UKIP. They are playing a subtle and not a very pleasant game.

To the point John Ashworth, you heard John Curtis reel off a host of

seats you did win, and tonight you are not in contention? I don't think

we are. I am disappointed... Why not? This is a rock solid Tory seat.

John Curtis reeled off rock solid Tory seats you won in by-elections

with sings similar to what is needed tonight? But John did not mention

the Corby by-election that we took from the Tories. That was the sort

of seat that decided the general election. When you say this is the

first victory, you should have won that seat. That is the seat on

general election night that everyone is looking at. With the

swingometers. Corby is a marginal we won from Labour in 2010 and lost a

couple of years later. But this is decided in general

elections. In a by-election there is more protesting. It is harder to

keep. The fact is that if any party is aiming to win a general election

in less than a year's time, not being able to come second in a

by-election is a poor state of affairs.

There are by-elections up to 2010, like Sedgefield and Ealing, you came

third it was a disappointing set of results in those seats. So it shows

that a party can come third in seats and still go on to form a government

at the general election. There are 11 months to go... You are not

winning. I hope that we do win. We don't know.

I hope we will. If we do it will be the first victory in government by

Conservatives in a by-election. You have made that point. It is not

a huge record to be proud of? The other point is this: At the start of

the campaign, whether the by-election was called, the bookies

had Labour at 3-1, 3-1. They thought Labour could be in for a shout.

Now... John has all but admitted that Labour are going to come third.

A terrible performance. If you are hoping to win the general

election on a 35% strategy, of getting 35% of the vote, Europe does

not feature for you? We are not hoping to win the general election

on a 35% strategy. You are not? No. We want to win a

majority at the next general election. So looking at the local

government results, topping the poll in Harrow, south Swindon... You went

backwards there! No. If you count, aggregate the votes we won the south

Swindon seats like in Harlow. Like in Harlow... We even won in

Basingstoke, Maria Miller's seat and Enfield south gate. These are the

seats to decide the next general election. The local elections in

which Labour went backwards in key places like in Swindon.

No we did not. And won in Sunderland and comes third in a by-election.

But he does not have to win Newark to get an overall majority at the

next election? Labour have to put in a good showing. Labour won Newark in

97 with small changes... Big changes.

It was the changes to the boundaries that were substantialment There were

changes but they won the seat in 97. It was a different seat. They won

the seat in 87. If you think this argument is bad

enough. You have to see what the poor constituencies of Newark have

had to go through. Inundated by politicians. Activists camped out

with reports of romantic relationships starting among the

young Conservatives canvassing. Well, that is the purpose of the

young Conservatives. It is good to see them going back to their roots.

They have called it Road Trip 2015. Whatever turns you on. But the

political anoraks will be in good company. Nosh Newark is no stranger

to eccentrics. You may not know Newark play as role

in the UK's space programme. Self-styled rocket man, Frank Shaman

chose the town for his latest launch.

# I think it's gonna be a long, long time... But what comes up, must come

down. Oh, my God... It is not just the PM

parachuted into Newark recently. Base journal pers have been taking

advantage of scaffolding Base journal pers have been taking

parish church. The town's Base journal pers have been taking

marketplace has been where politicians have been going since

Patrick Mercer's fall from grace. Market day, the corn farmers hold a

grain exchange at the 14th century pub.

The constituency covers the town of Subtle, dominated by Minster. The

world-famous Bramley cooking apples originated from here. And if they

need it, you can sweeten them up, thanks to the British sugar plant in

Newark. Farming and food a vital ingredient in the town's prosperity.

But the biggest employer is the giant's Knowhoe national

distribution centre. The transport links are vital. London, 1. 30

minutes away by train. Longer by boat and during the English Civil

War, as an important royalist stronghold, the castle here came

under attack. In recent years, the only attacks have been from the

rising waters of the River Trent. Famous sons of Newark include Ian

Burden, Famous sons of Newark include Ian

the Human League. And near to the other market town of Bingeham, also

in the questions, lies the former RAF Newton, we recently hosted the

popular TV show, Robot Wars. The teams saw candidates battling it out

for the top prize. None of the candidates are anything

like robots, of course, The turnout is 53%. There will be

interesting to see if that is of help to the Conservatives or UKIP.

53% is the turnout that we are hearing. We are joined from

Bristol. And we're joined now from Bristol

by the Conservative backbencher Why is your party struggling to hold

onto a seat which has 16,000 majority? We are going to win the

seat, apparently, which is exciting. That is the cause for celebration.

It is joyous news that we should win. We are used to swings against

us. All of that. We are going to win a by-election, it is to reflect news

and all Conservatives should rejoice. Do you agree with Matt

Hancock? If you have seen of the UKIP challenge, you have seen off

the UKIP challenge? -- off. It is even better news, I think that UKIP

are trying to unseat us, and if they fail, I think that bodes well. That

is an interesting point, but it does not answer my question, have you

stopped the UKIP insurgency in its tracks if you win? I think UKIP is

beyond that point. This is important for the Conservatives, to win a

by-election is good for morale, positioning for the General

Election, but UKIP has become a very powerful force in British politics.

It has a strong base in the European Parliament, it has a strong base in

local government and I do not think one by-election allows us to dismiss

UKIP for the future. Even if the Conservatives hold Newark tonight,

you would still like to see is some kind of pact between your party and

UKIP? As it happens, if we do win, I think it is almost the ideal

opportunity to do it, because we would be doing it from a position of

strength. It would be an opportunity for a generous offer to UKIP, rather

than appearing to be in difficulties. Victory for us makes

the packed more attractive. What do you say to that, Matt Hancock? We

are not going to have a packed. We run as a party. Knocking on doors in

Newark as I have been, I found lots of people who were preparing to vote

for us because they did not want to have a UKIP MP. Even if you win

tonight, you will have lost thousands of voters to UKIP. We need

to win voters from Labour as well. In the General Election, from here

until the election in 11 months time, we need to persuade UKIP

voters that the only way they can get a referendum on Europe is by

voting Conservative and the only way that they can see off and Ed

Miliband Premiership is voting Conservative and persuade Labour

voters that are long-term economic plan is working. We have got to make

sure we make those arguments, rather than jumping into bed with another

party, if you excuse the phrase. What to you make to the point by

Jacob Rees-Mogg, if you have seen off the UKIP challenge in Europe,

now would be the time, because you have shown that UKIP cannot sweep

all before, now would be the time to think about doing deals in

constituencies, if you do not, you could lose them. If I thought it was

a good idea, there is an argument about timing. Since I do not, there

is no argument about timing. The question is, over the next 11

months, how do we persuade people who voted UKIP to vote Conservative,

because we are the people who can keep Ed Miliband out. What do you

say to that? You cannot get your idea to fly! Indeed, it does not

seem to be flying at the moment, I think the electoral arithmetic is

very favourable to it. I think it is infinitely preferable to do

pre-Alexion packs rather than post election deals -- pre-Alexion

deals. -- pre-election. I prefer attempt to deal. There is so much

common ground between the Conservatives and UKIP and for us to

fight against each other could become self defeating --

pre-election. Diane James would you be interested in exploring the idea

of a deal with the Conservatives? Myself, personally, no. I have no

interest. I do not trust David Cameron and the Conservatives. We

have got real problems with national debt, we have a whole series of

issues that have been covered up, there was an awful lot of bad news

which the Conservatives chose, during the European election results

to hide... You both want a referendum on Europe. We want a

referendum on Europe and we believe we can deliver a referendum on

Europe ultimately and we have made that promise and commitment. We have

not made an empty pledge and we have not... Just one minute. Let me

finish, Andrew, please. We have not got a leader who said one thing when

it suits him to get votes in the General Election, only to go back on

that pledge later. Explain to me how UKIP delivers a referendum. If we

get anywhere between 30 and 60 MPs in the General Election... There are

people saying those sort of figures... Do not ask me if it is

plausible, I am giving you what I am hearing, we could hold the balance

of power and Nigel Farage made that point recently. When Nigel Friars

recent -- Nigel Farage said about a referendum, then why are you

opposing the Conservatives come he said that he was convinced that

Labour would propose a referendum. If they do not, then if you really

want a referendum, clearly you have to vote Conservative, because we are

the only party offering it and can deliver it in government. Why have

Conservative voters walked away from the Conservative Party? They have

walked away because they no longer believe in what David Cameron says.

They do not believe he will deliver on his pledge, he has not delivered

on others and from that perspective, he has lost credibility in their

eyes. Nigel Farage and UKIP as that trust and credibility and if that

was not there, why have we done so well in the European elections and

local elections? That is politicians and third -- politician's and serve.

You did not answer the question. -- answer. You do not agree on the

deal. Let me go back to Jacob Rees-Mogg. You have been patient. Do

you think that the UKIP threat is so great that they could end up in the

next election with up to 50 seats? Is that credible? No, that is not.

They will not get that many. They are highly unlikely to get any

seats, but they are likely to stop Conservatives winning seats and

therefore we have a mutually assured destruction, they can stop us

delivering on the pledge to have a referendum. The pledge to have a

referendum it is seared in the hearts of Conservatives at the

moment. There is no question that the Conservative government would

not have a referendum. The argument that there was not one on this barn

is false. That dreadful treaty had been ratified before the

Conservatives were in a position to have a referendum. That is always

ignored. David Cameron did not break his promise on that treaty --

Lisbon. The Lisbon Treaty had not been ratified and the Czech Republic

have not ratified it until about nine months before the General

Election. David Cameron knew all of that. Were you made to go to Newark

to campaign in the selection? I love it. I went out in 1986, in Fulham. I

always go when I possibly can. What was the mood like? I found lots of

staunch Conservatives. I was hugely encouraged. I was knocking on doors

all along a street. It was not preprepared. It was hugely

encouraging. There was people who had been Conservative all their

life, I met some UKIP supporters. I did not meet any socialists. Did you

meet any Labour people? No Labour people, no socialist, no Liberal

Democrats. Do not leave. Malcolm Bruce. This bizarre argument about

the referendum, they want a referendum so we can leave the

European Union. Jacob probably wants to leave the European Union. I think

the Conservatives are getting into a situation where they are being tried

by UKIP into sleepwalking UK out of the European Union. There is a case

for reform. Our view is clear that our political and economic interests

are in the European Union. It needs reform. UKIP are clear. I do not

think people know what they are voting for. David Cameron seems to

say that he wants a referendum, but I suspect Jacob would be voting

against it. Let us ask him. Even if the David Cameron came back from

Brussels with a decent set of powers repatriates id to Westminster, would

you still vote to leave? The touchstone for me would be

immigration, if we get the removal of the free movement of people and

have control of our own borders, then I could see myself voting to

stay in. If we do not get it, I would vote to leave. I am voting to

have the referendum and I want to have renegotiation and judge it on

the basis of that. Would it be possible that if the renegotiation

was not successful enough, but you did not get enough power repatriates

it, that you could conceive of voting to leave? I am an optimist

and I think we will succeed. If you did not get it and politics is all

about hypothetical questions, could you conceive of voting to leave?

Politics is about dealing what -- with what is in front of you. We are

assuming you will win the next election! We are proposing to have

the referendum and renegotiation and I hope that happens. If it is not

successful enough, would you consider to vote the way Jacob

Rees-Mogg is indicating? We want that renegotiation to be successful,

but the whole point of the referendum... It is my answer. It is

clear. The clear answer is we are pledge to have a referendum, we are

united and absolute about that and then we will renegotiate and I will

look at what the renegotiation looks like. We need to let you go, you are

looking lonely there in Bristol. Everyone else has gone home. If the

Conservatives do hold on to Newark, can we put it down to the Jacob

Rees-Mogg factor? That you knocked on and off doors to swing it? I

think Central office organise their best campaign in years. It was

incredibly efficient and select and they deserve to be thanked and

credited. Was that because they were nervous? Possibly, but that is as

good as it is -- and incentive as anything will stop Tories believe in

incentives. We will give you an incentive to get to bed. Let us go

back to John Curtice in our newsroom. He has been listing, AE --

he is smiling. -- listening. I want to ask you about a deal in our party

political and electoral system. What is your view? The problem about this

is whether it would be possible for the Conservatives to deliver

something that UKIP might find attractive. The truth is that if the

Conservatives stand down in places where they are relatively weak and

let UKIP have a free run, those places are usually safe Labour

constituencies and even if the Conservatives stand down, UKIP do

not have much chance of winning. If the Conservatives are going to give

them up a prospect of winning constituencies, you have to find

either of the incumbent MPs in seats that the Conservatives either

currently hold or hope to when who are going to be willing to stand

down and allow UKIP to have a free run. I figure would be difficult to

persuade Conservative associations to do it. Even if you could find one

or two macro, that would not be enough UKIP. Given what you have

just heard, UKIP could only possibly contemplate such a pact if that were

often scale that would ensure that the Conservatives did not have an

overall majority and that they would have to rely on UKIP to remain in

power and that they would then have the bargaining power to ensure the

Conservative Party would not do a trick of mild renegotiation and tell

the public it is fine. And then ask the Conservative Party,

does it regret having campaigned so hard against the alternative vote,

as in a sense the problem it is fating, if Jacob Rees-Mogg is right,

is that the UKIP voters, they presume, they vote one for UKIP but

probably two for the Conservatives with the alternative vote, while the

Conservatives campaign hard against it, it was before the UKIP were a

serious threat. I wonder now if they wish with the benefit of hindsight,

they had not campaigned so hard and if we were in the position in 2015,

that the Conservative difficulties and Jacob Rees-Mogg' difficulties

would not be as strong as they currently are.

A very good question. Better than the questions I think of. So, what

is the answer to that question? No. The alternative vote is wrong in

principle and first-past-the-post is straightforward. You do not get the

problem of the least valued vote making the difference. But also

because I think that the European elections, one of the things we

learned, was we saw UKIP taking votes from Labour. More so than in

the past. In the past this taking votes from us had been true but UKIP

taking votes from Labour is more of a thing now. Look at Rotherham and

the results there. Sure but they tend to take votes

from safe Labour seats, take it from you in marginal seats, you could

lose? They take votes from us... More in safer areas as well.

Which you could also lose. But also from Labour they could lose.

So from the northern areas, there are big majorities... You could have

done well in the northern heartland or the traditional heartland areas,

although the Labour Party has never had 100% of the vote in the areas.

And there we are seeing the Tory and the Liberal Democrats' vote

collapsing as it is going to UKIP. Lord Ashcroft did a poll where he

said that one in seven of the UKIP verities were Labour voters. So we

have a problem there. We have to work hard to win those people back.

But saying it is a protest vote is insulting to people switching to

UKIP. And us main stream political parties have to work harder to

understand the complicated reasons why people are shifting to UKIP. I

think there is a lot of things going on. Not just about Europe and

immigration but more about the way in which politics is conducted and

in how some of the people feel left out in society. We have to respond

to that. We have the UKIP candidate to have a

word with. Roger Helmer there. He was chosen when the Patrick Mercer,

the outgoing Tory MP had to resign, somewhat in disgrace. Roger Helmer

stepped forward. Some were expecting Nigel Farage but we have Roger

Helmer there. Have you won? We don't know yet. We know that the

Conservatives and UKIP are ahead of everybody else. We are waiting for

the count. It will be resolved in a couple of hours.

If you had not won, what would be a good result for you? We think we

have had a cracking campaign. We think probably the best by-election

result we have ever seen. Either to win or close on the heels of the

Conservative Party. Either way that is a huge rebuff for the Prime

Minister who has been to the Newark constituency on four occasions,

thrown the kitchen sink at it. Sent vast numbers of his people and the

people he sent were whipped to attend, whereas the hundreds of UKIP

supporters were volunteers who came as they believe in what we are

doing. Why in the final days was your

leader, Nigel Farage, not in Newark but Malta, giving a speech? Perhaps

as the Conservatives are more worried than we are. Nigel came to a

wonderful rally we had last Saturday in this room in which I am speaking.

He is here today. He has been with us through the polling day and has

provided us enormous support. Why not be there for the final push

in the last 48 hours of the campaign? Because he had other work

to do. More important than getting you

elected in Europe? He has lots and lots of calls on his time. He is the

leader of our party. The leader of the group in the Parliament. The

leader of the delegation to the European Parliament, he has a lot of

different things to do. But what could be more important

than to the leader of UKIP than getting you to win the first ever

by-election? We have a good machine here. A good campaign manager and

good candidate and great support from the party leader.

OK. So just not there in the final days. Let me ask you this, where do

you think that you are taking the votes? Where are the votes... You

had few votes in 2010, under 2,000. You are getting a lot more than

that, are they fro? They are coming from -- where are they coming from?

They are coming from across the board.

The experience we have is that we are taking former Conservative

voters and former Labour voters and we are excited that we are taking

votes from a lot of people who have been telling us that they have not

voted for ten, 20 years but they are now hearing something that they can

believe in. Are you enjoying being a by-election

candidate? A fantastic experience. Extremely tiring. I have not worked

so intensely. Of course, two elections. I have worked solidly for

six weeks with one day off but a lot of fun and hugely excited. Looking

forward to the results. If you have not won tonight will you

fight Newark in the general election? We are concentrating on

this election. But the election is over bar the

results, so will you fight Newark in the general election if you have not

won tonight? I will not make an announcement until we see the

results. OK. Can you mark our card for us, do

you haved in idea as to when we will get the result? People are telling

me about 3.00am. I am not sure that my people are any better than yours.

No, my people are telling us even later than pam. Perhaps, assuming

there are no recounts? I am not booked for morning media until 6.

20am. So that could be OK. It may still be us! We may go right

through. We hope to speak to you when we get

the results. Roger Helmer thank you for joining us for now. The UKIP

candidate from Newark there. Waiting on the results. Let me check it is

coming up to 1. 20am. A little while to go yet. John Ashworth, is it

conceivable, do you think, that a number of Labour voters would move

to UKIP? Vote for UKIP in Newark? It is conceivable. Obviously we have

seen Labour voters shifting to UKIP in the yarn elections, so it is

conceivable. On Twitter some were suggesting that some Labour voters

have gone to the Tories to defeat UKIP. So I suspect all sorts of

things. Lots of unusual things going on the

ground. Would it be a motivation? Would

Labour voters go to UKIP as they like the cut of UKIP's cloth? Of the

northern working-class votes that UKIP has been attracting in other

constituencies or are they going to stop the Tories, simply? If you are

a left-wing voter it would be bizarre for UKIP to stop the Tories?

It would. I think it is conceivable. Not so much in Newark. Although it

has happened in other areas in the European elections. But for example

down the road from Newark, the Ashfield constituency, the Liberal

Democrats have held up well in Ashfield. Yet they collapsed in the

European elections and the UKIP vote went up. So that suggests that

Liberal Democrats shifted to UKIP. So us politicians have to understand

what is going on with the UKIP vote and not dismiss it as a protest. It

is no question. AV, I will not reopen but without AV, my point is

without it, you have the tactical votes and everyone is after them. In

a four, five party situation, there are bizarre results.

Can I raise that point with you, Matt Hancock. The

first-past-the-post system works in a clear cut way when there are only

two parties in the game as there was for many British general elections

after the Second World War. 1945, 1950, about 98% of people voted

either Labour or Conservative. We are now in a four-party system. The

first-past-the-post system can produce strange results? But it has

the advantage of being simple and straightforward.

But not with four parties? I think to say that people are only

tactically voting if they switch votes one way or the other is wrong.

You wrote to Liberal Democrats voters urging them to do that. I met

Labour voters in Newark voting UKIP as they preferred Nigel Farage to Ed

Miliband and I met Labour voters in Newark voting for Conservatives as

they think we have a compelling offer and they don't like Ed

Miliband. This is driven by the offers that the parties make. I

agree with John that you must understand why the changes are

happening. To address them. But it is also about the offer on the

table. With somebody like Ed Miliband as the offer of the Labour

leader it is meaning that Labour voters are going to all sorts of

different parties. But David Cameron is not looking

like winning the majority of the vote. So David Cameron has a problem

in what should be a safe Tory seat. It is not so often that the sitting

government wins over 50% of a vote in a by-election. No matter who.

That is a feature of the elections. Now to the Labour backbencher, Simon

Danchuck, now, Labour won the seat in 1997 but there were different

boundaries. The boundary changes have helped the Conservatives. But

it is a by-election. Oppositions do well in by-elections. Is it a cause

for concern that Labour is not even in contention? I don't think so we

are not in contention, I don't think that we would have expected to be,

to be honest. I think that the Labour vote will hold up to a

certain extent. But you were talk being the idea that UKIP may be

taking some Labour votes. I think that is inevitable in fact. There

are reasons. Firstly, the public don't understand what we have to

say. They like how UKIP speak to them in a more ordinary language. I

think that there are things we as a party can do about that. They are

concerned about whether or not politicians are working for them

effectively in terms of representing them well. And the third point is

that the main stream parties have given them a free run on a number of

issues. For example immigration over Europe. We have not talked about

Europe since John Major's day. Thirdly, UKIP have been good in

doing politics in a different way to the main stream parties. Some

inevitable that we have been losing some votes to UKIP. Why are UKIP

getting blue-collar Labour voters, why? They are seen as talking their

language and that is something we need to learn from. They talk about

issues that are important to them, about immigration, they talk about

Europe and these issues have crept up on mainstream politics. We should

have been addressing this, Gordon Brown should have provided

leadership in the last election and tackled immigration, but he did not.

It is though we sought to avoid this competition. Conserve -- politician

-- the public sense that this is being avoided. I believe that Ed

Miliband will do that. He is serious about winning this General Election

and there is a real opportunity for Labour to win the General Election

in 2015 and I think he will cut his cloth accordingly. Are there are too

many Oxbridge educated smoothies at the top of the Labour Party for

northern tastes? There is an issue about how diverse the Shadow Cabinet

is, I have said that previously and I will say it again. I think the

electorate want politicians, not just like Matt Hancock or Jonathan,

they want a diverse range of politicians representing them and I

think it is important that mainstream parties do all they can

to ensure that happens. It applies to the Tories and Labour equally.

You would like a referendum? I have been clear about that yes. I think

the public want that. I think we need to renegotiate the situation in

Europe and I am pro-European, but I think that because of the feeling in

the country, I think it would be right to have a referendum. Also, I

accept that Ed Miliband is the leader and he has the right to take

the position he takes. John Ashworth, why not give them a

referendum? I do not think that should be our priority if we get

into government. If we get into government and we pledge a

referendum, the first few years back government will dominated by

negotiations with the European Union and I think that when people are

struggling in Rochdale and other areas, when people are struggling to

pay the bills, these are the sorts of issues we should be dealing with,

not wasting our time with this referendum won we do not know what

the renegotiation will be. I want to go back to Newark were we are joined

by Nigel Farage. Welcome to the programme. Have you won? No, the

Conservatives will win this seat but UKIP. Their best ever percentage

score in a by-election, it will be over 30% and given that we were

25,000 votes behind the Conservatives in 2010 and it will be

2500 now, we are very pleased our performance. In your view, the Tory

majority will be how they could? I think it will be down to around

3000. I understand that you would consider that a decent results, but

why do you think you have not won it? If the scores on the doors are

correct, and the UKIP vote share is up nearly 30%, it would be difficult

to think that they could have done much better. It has been assured by

election, we could not mobilise anyone until after the European

elections, we have only had ten days, the Conservatives are put in

more effort than any other by-election in their history, we

will be very happy with this result. You are happy? There must be a bit

of disappointment that you have not ruled it off given your local

election results and then the European election results, this

would have given you some incredible momentum if you had won. I think the

important thing for us is that ten days ago, everyone said, the UKIP

result in the European elections will not carry through to

Westminster elections and what this by-election shows is that there are

people out there who are not lending their vote to UKIP in European

elections, they are UKIP voters. You do not even think it will be close

enough for you to insist on a recount? I do not think so. I think

there will be a clear majority for the Conservatives, but a big second

place for UKIP and we come they get seconds in Labour and Liberal

Democrat held seats and the other thing worth noting, the turnout

today is the highest it has been in a by-election for many years and the

reason for that is a lot of people who have never voted, were going out

today to vote for UKIP. Just the point I was making to your

candidate, if the result was quite close and you have come a strong

second if I can put it that way, why we do not bear in the constituency

for the final push? -- why were you not there. I keep being told that I

have to be here every day, UKIP is about a lot more than Nigel Farage

and we have proved that in this by-election. To have won tonight

would have been another earthquake and that final push could have made

all the difference. You are the household name of UKIP will stop our

long should I have been here? Should I have been the candidate? --.. We

have fought a good campaign with a first-class candidate and we are

getting more professional and better at fighting elections and all I can

say is roll on the next by-election. I was speaking at an engagement I

accepted eight months ago, I never break my word. Word you go from

here? -- where do you go. We have got some work to do, we need to get

our domestic manifesto correct and we intend to launch the outline of

that September in Doncaster at our conference. We need to get some new

spokespeople involved. We need to get selecting candidates,

particularly for our target seats for 2015. A lot of organisation, a

lot of work to do, but we are ready for the next by-election and that

could be in South Cambridgeshire if Andrew Lansley becomes European

commissioner. When I asked Andrew Lansley is he was in contention, he

did not quite answer, but I said if he was asked to do so, what would

you say and he said he would say yes to David Cameron, so you may get

your by-election will stop we will see. I think it is very likely --..

Thank you. Nigel Farage there. Not all the votes have been counted, but

it is clear that he has seen the signs and that it is clear in his

view, because we never know until all the votes are counted, he is

saying that the Conservatives have not won, he is conceding defeat, but

saying that UKIP has come a strong second. Simon Danczuk is still with

us in Salford, but let me get your reaction Diane James. It is better

than your result in Eastleigh. It is better. It is a nice increase in

terms of our share of the vote. The point Nigel was making, in 2010, the

Conservatives had that seat with 54% of the vote, we had less than 4%. If

he is indicating we have gone above 30%, that is a significant figure

and I am very pleased. We have clearly got to make a squeeze. Nigel

Farage has conceded that we have got the first Conservative election

victory in a by-election in government in 25 years. That is

fantastic. It is great news. Winning a by-election in government is hard

and we put everything into it. It is true! We get this criticism that we

worked hard, but in the General Election, you will see an awful lot

of hard work as well. The Conservative Party's tale is up, we

have a battle on, we have to persuade people, we have a lot of

work to do, but there is a united team working at it and that sounds

as if Nigel Farage is correct, it sounds like it has been successful

and we will wait and see the full result. We worked hard to stop I

went to Newark on Tuesday, I could not move for Tory MPs --. Stop Grant

Shapps has done a great job. All those Tory MPs, well done. Let me

rejoin Simon Danczuk. You have heard but we think has happened, we do not

know how good or bad the Labour vote was, but I know you feel that the

should be a change of tactics or strategy in your party's approach. I

am Ed Miliband, we are in the privacy of my office behind the

Speaker's chair, tell me what I need to do to ensure victory. I would say

a little bit less slogans, more conversation with the electorate,

politics is a team game, get more of the Shadow Cabinet out there are

speaking to the public, getting the message across. We have some

excellent policies, we need to strengthen our policy in relation to

emigration and welfare, -- immigration. We need to get out

there and talk about Europe, because it is important to the people. They

need to hear where we stand. We need an open and honest conversation with

the electorate. Ed Miliband is doing that and I thought he made an

excellent speech after the Queen's speech. He has some appeal. We need

to build on where we are. It is possible for us to win the General

Election. Will you be blunt enough to tell me that Labour has a

leadership problem? I do not think so. I am being honest. It is a team

game. We need to get around Ed Miliband and support him. The

comments that I make are constructive. I am passionate about

delivering a Labour government for our people so they do not have to

suffer under what is currently a Coalition. The other point to make

is that this is not a success for the Conservatives, they have thrown

the kitchen sink at this, they have struggled to hold annihilated, so it

is an interesting by-election result. I do not think it is too bad

for Labour. We do not know yet, I would not prejudge that. If you have

not got a leadership problem, why do opinion polls show that only 6% of

people say that having Ed Miliband as your leader makes them more

likely to support the party and 40% say it makes them less likely to

support the party? Surely you could file that under leadership problem?

In terms of the opinion polls, we are ahead of them. We are six points

in front of the Conservatives in one poll was will be published tomorrow.

Ed Miliband is growing into the job. He has kept the party united. We are

going in the right direction. It is all to play for. We are 11 months

away, we are firming up our policies, many of those are

appealing to the electorate. There is a lot of work to be done in terms

of communications, but we will get there and Ed Miliband will be

appealing more to the electorate as the electorate gets to know him

better. In your most honest moments, would you not concede that it is

clear that the Tories have a problem in the North and that David Cameron

has another problem as well. Is also fair to say that Ed Miliband has the

same problem? He does not appeal that much to traditional Labour

voters the North. It is not just about Ed Miliband. It is about the

Shadow Cabinet and what that looks like. You have to have people there

are speaking the language of Northern and voters. Why has he not

got you? You would need to put that to him. I would if he would give me

an interview. Thank you for joining us. Malcolm Bruce, let me come back

to you. The BBC understands that the Liberal Democrats have come six. You

have come behind the Green Party and Dan Independent candidate

campaigning on hospitals -- Independent stop.

But what concerns me about the wider debates is that we with securing

recovery at the moment. The strongest economy in the Western

world... You have said that. But I appreciate it is important. But what

I am trying to say, despite all of that, it looks like you have come

behind the Greens? You are making a habit of it? We are not. The point

is we have made gains in certain parts of the country in the local

elections, held up in areas, what we are not getting is recognition for

what we delivered in Government. How is that to change? If there is

credit going the Tories are getting it.

In the areas where we are strongly organised, we are not a big national

party. But in the 57 seats, the support is strong with the mechanism

to deliver. Until recently no cheerleaders for the Liberal