By-Election Special This Week

tonight on the this week Brit Awards. Do it, glamour and rock and

roll. And to jobbing presenters. Michael

Portillo and Alan Johnson. Alan, I cannot believe they have let us

present the Brit Awards. They were getting rather political. It is a

bit loud in here. Is that EUROthmics? I don't know but sweet

dreams are made of this. Now the award for great British icon. This

is boring. What is a British icon? The winner is... Jeremy Corbyn. Only

joking. It is Ann Widdecombe. Who is she? I can't believe it. I just

can't believe it. Up next, best international female

artiste. And the winner is... A Swedish act. Emma Barnett. Issue

foreign? I am sorry I cannot be there to collect this award in

person but there has been an emergency curfew declared in

Stockholm. I dedicate this award to all my fans and this week's

round-up. And now, the award for the weirdest

British breakthrough act. Goes to Michael Portillo. No, it doesn't.

Wearing your sunglasses inside! It goes to Milton Jones. And now, what

we have all been waiting for. The lifetime achievement award goes

to... BLEEP. Andrew BLEEP? What is he wearing? I don't know why people

watch this BLEEP every. I am. I am going to an after party. Ladies and

gentlemen. Please welcome the multiple award winner, Newsnight and

Question Time would never sign up. Andrew Neil.

I am not worthy. But I will keep it anyway.

And I must immediately confess to a little trepidation.

Because as part of the Prime Minister's whirlwind tour

of the unelected parts of the British Constitution,

which began with her plonking herself down on the steps

of the throne in the Lords during their Lordships' Brexit

debate, Mrs May has decided to sit in on tonight's edition of the show.

She's standing over there right now, next to the throne we keep

for the BBC director-general when his wife's kicked

As if she was trying to intimidate us.

As if to say, one wrong step, Neil, and I'll flood this studio

with hundreds of Tory guests, which would be curtains

One wrong word and it's complete abolition -

a fire sale of the sofa, Michael Portillo's shirts,

and Molly the Dog deported back to France.

And what if we mistakenly cut to her when she's eating a pie?

This McWeek going out at three in the morning on the BBC's

But then neither was Mrs May to become PM.

And we do provide some expertise, a decent standard of debate,

unlimited Blue Nun and each show is only 300 quid a go.

In many ways we're better value than the Commons.

Speaking of those with nothing better to do than hang around TV

studios into the wee small hours, I'm joined on the sofa

tonight by two remnants of the British Constitution,

think of them as the Black Rod and Silver Stick of late night

I speak, of course, of Michael #choochoo Portillo

Welcome. Michael, your moment of the week. The Germans rejected President

Trump's invitation to make a bigger contribution to Nato. They

contribute only just over half of what they should. When you think the

Americans have three years defended Europe, had troops in western

Germany. To save Berlin. It seems ungrateful. Meanwhile, thanks to the

euro, which is cheaper than the Deutschmark, the Germans are

exporting, and meanwhile in southern Europe, we have unemployment. The EU

has become a German scam. Not a controversial moment!

Jamal al-Harith, previously known by his British name of Ronald something

or other. Fiddler. He was released from Guantanamo Bay in 2004 and was

found to be fighting in Syria for Isil, this week. The controversy is

not that he was released from Guantanamo Bay. Many of the

newspapers are saying Tony Blair was wrong to campaign... Campaigning

with Tony Blair. As Tony Blair pointed out. It was outrageous they

were in Guantanamo. Neither is the fact that he was paid compensation.

We in government thought we would get a closed session in court to

reveal the issues around security that should not be in open court and

the Court of Appeal ruled against that in 2010 and the government were

right to do that. The issue is, what was the surveillance after he was

released, and secondly, how... What watchlist was he on to make sure he

was not moving around the world? Those of the two questions. Yvette

Cooper raise them in Parliament today. The other two issues are

superfluous to this argument. We had reports he had become a suicide

bomber and blew himself up but that is not confirmed. All right.

Now, at this stage in the proceedings we'd

like to offer our warmest congratulations to Paul Nuttall

MP on his victory in the Stoke-on-Trent by-election.

I appreciate the more sentient among you will realise that the results

aren't in yet and that this is just another example of fake news.

But face facts - Ukip's leader has a Hillsborough Hero medal,

a PhD from Harvard and was Man U's star striker for a decade.

Such a Renaissance Man was always going to be a shoo-in.

It follows that we must send our sincere commiserations

We've been spoiled with his wisdom and insights during the campaign,

especially about women or, as he calls them, "squabbling

Clearly this is the man who taught Donald Trump everything

Meanwhile, with their enemies in chaos all around them,

Mrs May's Tories grow smugger than Jack Smug McSmug the year

he won the Smuggest Person of the Year competition.

But when they're not smugging it up, do they ever wonder

Here's Ann Widdecombe with her take of the week.

It hasn't been done for more than 30 years but now it looks

as if a governing party is about to win a safe

And if that does happen, then unless a miracle rescues

Jeremy Corbyn's chaotic divided party, Theresa May should make plans

for ten, rather than five years of Government,

something which of course Margaret Thatcher achieved.

It's an opportunity to build a really bold agenda.

Now, of course, Theresa May's got to concentrate on Brexit.

But nevertheless, this opens up a chance to really sort out

the country in a large number of ways.

It was set up on the assumption that, as we all grew healthier,

demand would decline, whereas the explosion of medical

and surgical science has sent that demand towards infinity.

So we've got to ask, what would we do if we were starting

again from scratch and to have the courage to look

A solution is going to require courage and political will.

We also have an education system that is churning out

Theresa May's acknowledged that grammar schools

And we've got a welfare system that's still seriously abused,

we have demoralised and poorly equipped troops and then

there are all those decisions on low tax economy and on debt reduction.

We must show that we are the party that will tackle these

for the long-term, not just tinker about timidly for a Parliament.

When our first woman Prime Minister left 10 Downing Street,

she also left behind a country that was permanently

Ann Widdecombe is with me now. Welcome. What makes you think

Theresa May has any kind of philosophy? Never mind a radical

reforming agenda quests like I was not talking about philosophy, I was

not talking about words, I was talking about serious action and the

fact is a succession of governments has ignored the obvious, which is

the health service was not designed to cover what we are now asking.

My question is what makes you think she is up for any of this? I hope

she will do it. If she does get ten years rather than five, if Jeremy

Corbyn carries on as he is, if she gets ten years, this is the

opportunity. What is it in her political track record that would

make you think she is up for it? Time will tell. The fact is she has

a series of problems and what I am saying is she can confront them, she

has got to worry about Brexit, of course, it will be the major thing

that dominates her first term. She has a real opportunity to look at

the long-term. You said that. It is not what I am asking. What big ideas

has she been associated with? We shall now find out. I am asking

about the past. Hang on, she is now Prime Minister. When she was Shadow

Secretary of State for Education she came up with the good programme I

thought of free schools. I think she can. Hang on. I think she can think

imaginatively. You are telling me she can't. Time will tell. She

didn't come up with... I did not say she invented it that she came up

with an agenda to free up money to spend on schools rather than

education in theory. Parking Brexit. Do you know what else Theresa May

wants to achieve in office? I'm afraid we don't. We were wanting

to balance the books by 2016. By 2015. Yes. There is a bit of grammar

schools going on. Beyond that, it's hard to say. I'm surprised Anne

Widdecombe didn't mention home ownership. Tories ought to be doing

something about home ownership and we discussed this. It's falling?

Yes, and what the Communities Secretary announced about two weeks

ago now I think was very, very half baked indeed. There are all these

things that Tories ought to be tackling but with which are going by

the wayside. It remind me of Blair's Government. His first Government had

this extraordinary opportunity because the opposition was nowhere,

to do whatever it wanted. The Conservatives have that opportunity

today. The Tories are 18 points ahead in

the polls. Without Anne Widdecombe's radical agenda, maybe they don't

need it? Well, I thought Anne was right on two things. First of all, I

think Brexit is too dominant in that. In a sense, any Prime Minister

would be excited with this. Overwhelmed. It's going to take

every ounce of energy. On the other hand, the other issue is, she should

be thinking of other things. She's only got a majority, some say 16,

some say ten, she's got a very small majority. Now, it's a fair

criticism, we had a very big 177-seat majority. But there again,

to be fair to that Blair Government, they were absolutely convinced that

they shouldn't act adds some sort of dictatorship because they had a huge

majority. Mr Blair always regretted he didn't do enough. No, but what

they did is start the process of Sure Start centres and a ten-year

NHS plan. What they did is start the process of reducing child poverty.

I'm asking - your piece was about... It has to be challenged. You

shouldn't get away with just saying it. I'm challenging it now. Blair

was extremely dictatorial. Let me suggest who may be a problem here.

If you speak to those around 10 Downing Street, those very close to

it, they say she wants to keep Britain global while making ordinary

families feel secure against the effects of globalisation. She wants

to have some middle way between the kind of Trump nationalism and the

Blairite globalisation. That could mitigate against anything too

radical on welfare of the NHS? I don't think so. I mean yes, she's

got to look globally. Post-Brexit, we are going to be looking globally

in a big way rather than within Europe, so obviously she's got to

have a global programme and that's right and her attitude towards the

United States is right, for example, she's looking to what's going to

happen when the country's actually left the EU. That has to be right.

But of course, at the same time, she's got to consider how people are

feeling in this country, what their particular concerns are, and I think

she's showing every sign of doing that. She's the one who talks about

people who're just about managing which actually is a good phrase

because there are an awful lot of people in the country who are just

about managing. She has ditched it? OK but it's a good phrase. Never

mind whether they'll carry on using it and call it jams, but there are

lots of people who're neither on welfare nor earning a lot of money,

who are just about managing, it's a good concept. It reminds me of

Margaret Thatcher who used to talk about stridents. She did a lot for

them. Here is the problem with the jams, the just about managings, Mrs

May's made the centrepiece of these people, they are about to have their

living standards squeezed by rising inflation and they are on welfare a

lot of them, Working Tax Credits, welfare, and they are being frozen.

So what is she going to do for them? There is quite a lot. First of all,

Conservative Government and you are right home ownership is massive, it

tries to stimulate business, tries to create jobs, government doesn't

create jobs but tries to create the atmosphere in which jobs can follow

and that sort of prosperity. It tries above all to create aspiration

and to make the most of opportunity, hence grammar schools, so I think

there is a lot that Theresa May can do but it's not going to happen by

Wednesday afternoon. But the whole point of what I was saying was,

there are some very big issues which successive Governments have not

tackled. I really urge her to tackle those. I think we've got that

message all right. Have you? The question is whether she has.

Michael Portillo finally on this. There must be a huge danger that

Brexit and the demands of Brexit just suck the energy and are

all-consuming for the Government? Well, I accept what Alan said, there

might be fairly all-consuming for the Prime Minister but there is a

Cabinet of 20 people and they are meant to be capable people and this

stuff should be delegated and marks given for radicalism and energy and

innovation and imagination. You know, for instance, Michael Gove in

whichever department you put him, was an enormous reformer but of

course Michael Gove is not a member of this Government and I don't see

anybody else having his sort of instincts. Before you go, Anne, what

would you advise Mrs May to do about the NHS? This is what I really want

to see and have been saying this since 1998 - I want a mature debate,

across the parties, across the country, across all interest groups

- a mature debate about what the options might be, looking at

possible models from other countries and have an open debate about that,

without, if I may say so, Alan's party saying, we are going to

privatise the NHS. But they would say that. And then when we have got

a preferred option, we then have to work out how on earth you get there

from here. It's a serious grown-up business and I'm sick about hearing

which party is spending more on the NHS, let's sort it out otherwise

people are going to be completely dispossessed because they are not

going to be able to afford... You want a debate? A very serious

grown-up, no holds barred, look at all the options debate. All right.

And that takes courage. Thank you.

But we know, you've been through a lot recently.

And, no sooner were our prayers answered,

than we had to start dealing with the emotional

So it's just as well that waiting in the wings is whacky and wonderful

comedian Milton Jones, putting all things weird in our spotlight.

We know you're all just a bunch of Facebonkers SnapPots so go

Now, we've received explicit orders from Downing Street that this show

is no longer to be called Just About Managing.

We've been renamed Ordinary Working People,

to conform with the PM's latest patronising and meaningless

description for the sort of people most of the Cabinet have never met

But this new nomenclature presents us with a few problems,

though it's true we've never really managed anything we have always

But if you're ordinary and hard-working, you've really come

to the wrong place and probably went to bed hours ago because you've

Anyway, here's party girl Emma Barnett with her round up

Andrew has put me in charge of organising the This Week

by-election party and they've chosen the theme.

Maybe that was the incident that the Donald was

Actually, there were disturbances in Sweden this

week, but only after Mystic Donald had warned us there

Is there no end to Donald Trump's powers?

The Scandi thing is only about ten years out of date,

# Friday night and the nights are no # Looking out for a place to go

It's a good thing we are using Alan's bedsit, because

there is no way Michael's neighbours would be OK with this in his flat.

The political week began with more fallout over false

claims on Ukip leader's Paul Nuttall's website that he'd lost a

Two Ukip officials resigned and the whole row overshadowed the

campaign in final days of the by-election in

He should come to the city of Liverpool and

say listen, I am sorry for that error.

Paul Nuttall defended himself saying, at least I didn't say

I want to put things in perspective. It's not as if I've taken illegally

from the public purse, it's not as if I've said something racist, it's

not as if I've sent people to war. # Super trooper... #

As if things weren't exciting enough in Stoke already, the town had a

visit from the Prime Minister. She pops up to tell them how good Brexit

would be for the pottery industry. SMASH...

Might have overcooked the meatballs! That reminds me, the This Week party

guest list is very strict. No unwanted droppings, right.

MPs in the Commons debated their own unwelcome visitor this week,

President Donald Trump. The debate won't affect the state visit of

course, but MPs couldn't resist the opportunity to sound off, all for

the good of democracy, of course. He shouldn't be accorded the rare

privilege of a state visit -- afforded. Only two Presidents of the

United States have been granted a state visit since 1952.

THE SPEAKER: I do respect I respect the fact he stood on a platform

which he is delivering. He's going to be roundly condemned for being

the only politician to deliver on his promises. There'll be smiles all

round the Kremlin if we follow this politician. The one thing they want

above all else is to divide the West. The Lords were dealing with

their own unwelcome visitor, the Prime Minister who popped up again,

resumibly on her way back from Stoke to shoot evils at the peers gathered

for the Brexit Bill's second reading inned the House of Lords. The vote

was never in downedth doubt, but 187 peers still had their say.

When the British people have spoken, you do what they command. The Either

you believe in democracy or you don't. Any people who retreat into

are going to come back for a second month, they don't believe in

democracy. My Lords I believe in democracy and I believe we should

proceed rapidly with this Bill. If the decision to leave were to result

in more serious focus on these charges and smarter better thought

out policies, then it might allow for some positives of the EU

departure than otherwise might not have occurred or might have not have

occurred. There is, as of yet, no real evidence to support such an

optimistic hope, but one lives in hope. Despite the marathon debate,

the Lords passed the Bill without any amendments, but there was a

stark reminder from the European Union that trouble lies ahead for

the Government. Former EU President, her man van Rompuy reminded us that

Britain is isolated and lacking friends. Good luck with that trade

deal, Mrs May. Hm, might not be needing as many of these after all.

Britain lost friends in the last years and months. The new member

states are upset about the migration proposals. The French Presidential

candidate struck a similar unfriendly note. He wants to lure

all British skilled workers to France, post-Brexit. We won't have

any friends left for this Swedish party. I was very happy to see that

because of the Brexit was considered to come to France precisely to work,

it will be part of my programme to be attractedive to this kind of

people. No Swedish party would be complete without a sauna. Costs a

fortune in hot water. Michael loves it. Jeremy Corbyn turned up the heat

on Theresa May this week at Prime Minister's Questions all over the

NHS. The legacy of her Government will be blighting our NHS for

decades. Fewer hospitals, fewer A departments, fewer nurses and fewer

people getting the care they need. We need a Government that puts the

NHS first and will invest in our NHS. But May steamed back without

breaking a sweat with rabble-rousing lines about economic competence. If

you are going to fund the NHS, you need a strong economy but now we

know Labour have a different sort of phrase now for their approach to

these things. Remember Labour used to talk about Boom And Bust, now

it's no longer Boom And Bust, it's borrow and bankrupt.

# Just one look and I can hear a bell ring... #

I need some help with building this furniture.

Good evening, Prime Minister. Gosh, you do get around. Take those shoes

off, you'd better come in. Yippee. You can serve the meatballs, just

don't talk to anyone, Theresa May. And we're joined now

by the lovely Miranda Green. Will it prove powerless over Brexit

in the end? I get the impression they feel nervous about being seen

to block the Commons and about the referendum. They feel I think it is

within their power to send it back to the Commons. Once. Exactly. Do

not expect ping-pong and there is no appetite for it. But they want to

make a few hard about the question of EU citizens in the UK. -- hoo ha

stop --. I think they would be crazy to have a war with the government

over the result of the referendum. If we had a second chamber with

democratic legitimacy it would have had more power in this process? It

would but it does not have that legitimacy and the legitimacy in the

Brexit process lies with the people who voted. But the majority to

leave. That is the primary thing they have to keep in mind and

respect the will of the people. Michael, if the EU, as some are

saying it will, insist on Britain agreeing that has to agree to pay a

massive divorce bill before negotiating any future EU - UK

relationship, could that scupper the talks? I very much doubt it. That is

the position Jean-Claude Juncker has taken. A spokesman for Angela

Merkel's party said he thought that was wrong tactics to be adopting.

Remember this has to have a political solution at the end.

Angela Merkel would be absolutely distraught if the negotiations broke

down at the first fence. I don't think that will happen. A general

point. We keep worrying in this country about our disadvantages.

Sometimes you have to look at it the other way round. We're worried about

whether the City of London will survive as a major financial centre.

Europe should be worried about cutting itself off from the greatest

financial centre in the world. Allen, there are political

insurgencies in Holland, France, Italy. Beppe Grillo's party is

number one Indesit the moment. The Greek crisis, is back again.

Predictions of the EU's demise, which we have talked about on this

programme for donkey's years. I did not say eyes, I said is it in any

shape to negotiate? They are growing at a greater rate of -- than America

at the moment. Britain... All the people you mention, none of them are

saying come out of Europe. In Italy it's about the euro. In France it is

about... Marine Le Pen wants a referendum. She wants a referendum.

And in Holland. There is no feeling that the public... If anything, they

have seen what has happened in Britain and moved away from the

idea. I think there will be a proper negotiation. The main negotiator

wanted the money sorted out first. He represents the commission. I want

the British Government to succeed on this and understand the point David

Davis and others are making. The other side have to be aware that

Britain would be willing to walk away. That has got to be the opening

gambit. But, if it comes to that, they must know it will be a

disastrous consequence for this country. A European demand for a

huge Brexit would be something they British Government could agree to.

It is preposterous and I think the government underestimates the

strength of this country and what we have to offer to the EU. We could

offer the EU access to our markets and for businesses to export to us,

which they do by about ?90 billion a year more than we export. There is a

lot of trouble in Europe. Reading tonight the bank of Italy, the

central bank, owes the ECB over 200 billion euros. 20% of Italy's GDP.

You could see why Brussels is worried by what they would regard as

perfidious Albion. You could play divide and rule ended -- in the

negotiations. The City of London is a great resource for the rest of

Europe and I am sure the British Government would be keen not to

underplay their hand. However, it is important for British as nurse and I

don't just mean large important sectors like manufacturing,

pharmaceuticals, who can lobby government to make sure their

sectors are looked after. Lots of businesses, small businesses, other

sectors which are not discussed in the context of Brexit, creative

industries, are relying hugely on relationships with Europe and on

things like the free movement of people. It is important we do not

hobble our economy in this process. I understand the point of let's be

optimistic and play a strong hand, but we must be realistic about the

potential damage to the economy from Brexit.

Now, from the boring monotony of the This Week studio

to the boring monotony of the counts at the Stoke on Trent by-election

Our correspondent Chris Mason is there.

Give us the latest, Chris. Good evening. I think it will be a few

hours yet before you can put on your pink fluffy pyjamas. Still some

counting to be done as the hours trundle on. 38% is the turnout

figure. I think even though it is not exactly a vast behind number,

given the consensus here, it seems to be the winner has been Storm

Doris. Putting people off wanting to vote and making it hard for those

knocking up the vote for all the parties. 38% is probably on the

upside of what some expected turnout wise, given it is a by-election and

in Stoke and there have been low turnouts down the years and given

the weather conditions. I have been chatting to Jack Dromey, the Labour

MP tonight, saying he was cautiously optimistic. Usually the language at

an event like this that means they have won. He described it as a 3-way

marginal, which tells you how this seat or perhaps Labour has changed.

This is a seat Labour has held on its current boundaries or close to

those, since the 1930s and for Jack Dromey to describe it as a 3-way

marginal, even if they held, tells you it's own story. We will come

back to you as night goes on. The turnout in Coke -- Copeland is over

51%. And Tom Bateman is at

the Copeland count. He is in a sports centre like Chris.

We can find out what the latest is. We have just had the turnout figure

of 51%, which is pretty good, considering it is a by-election, and

a high level of engagement given what was a bare knuckle fighting the

campaign. Let's remind ourselves what is at stake. Labour have held

the seat since 1935 and yet they find themselves on the defensive, on

the back foot, trying to hold on to a seat against a governing

Conservative Party and frankly in normal circumstances they should

easily hold, defending a 2500 majority. There has been noise about

whether the Conservatives will gain the seat. Chatting to people here

and taking a look at the votes, it looks finely balanced, to me and

other observers. One senior Conservative figure in the region

said as he walked from one side of the room he got confident. He looked

at votes on another table and not quite so. We will have to wait. It

is a constituency, a vast rural constituency from the Cumbrian coast

to the Lake District and it is my understanding parties did not have

feelers out in all polling booths. A closely fought race. Jeremy Corbyn

saying tonight whatever the results, signalling he will stay on and fight

for what he called his mass membership movement, trying to break

the political consensus. Perhaps not the words of somebody feeling that

he is worried about these seats and what it means for his leadership and

also signalling frankly he will stay on. We will leave it there. Still

uncertainty. Our correspondent not able yet to give a clear steer on

the results in either by-election, which is why we will stay on air

through the night and give you results as they come. If you do not

win Stoke, how damaging is it for Ukip? We hope to win Stoke. I think

it will be close, if we do not win. It shows we are nipping on the heels

of labour in the Midlands and the doors. We will have to wait and see

what happens. What is Paul Nuttall's future if you lose? He will continue

to be the leader of the party. He has served the party eight years as

chairman, deputy leader and now the leader and he got a standing ovation

at the spring conference. Leaders always get standing ovations at

conference. It has not been a great campaign. Many Ukip supporters will

see it as a lost opportunity. It has been a difficult campaign and in

some ways a nasty campaign. His house in Stoke was attacked and

people tried to break in. There have been personal attacks on him. He is

a great leader for Ukip and has given the party hope and has a lot

of support. Despite Ph.D. That never was, the Tranmere Rovers contract

that never was, the Hillsborough problems. He is giving a lead on

policy and in Stoke. He fought a good campaign. There is still...

Votes have not been counted. They have not been finished being

counted. Labour seems reasonably confident. They are not sure by what

majority. Still uncertain. If Labour loses Copeland to the Tories that is

an event of the historic magnitude? It is certainly a bad by-election

result. By-elections are therefore oppositions to prosper. I hope we

win it. We have a good candidate in Copeland and in Stoke. You had a

good candidate in Stoke. Yes. I thought Gareth Snell was very good.

Everything he said about within's look, I don't agree with that.

Jeremy The Conservative Party don't want to

see Nuttall in. Parliament don't even want Labour humiliated to the

point where Jeremy Corbyn might be remove and obviously it would be a

wonderful thing for Philip to win Copeland. The point of this

by-election from a Conservative point of view is to prove that Ukip

has no validity, no utility and also in Copeland that the Tories can be a

serious party in the north of England. Revolutionary stuff. Is it

not the case that even if Mr Corbyn does very badly tonight, it looks as

though he'll probably hold on to Stoke and could hold on to Copeland

too but could lose that. If he loses badly, the party have tried and

failed to get rid of him, only the left can get rid of him if they want

to and if they don't want to, he stays? Absolutely. In fact it seems

to me that in Copeland it's a win-win for the Conservatives

because either they gain an extra MP and defeat the Labour Party or

Jeremy Corbyn survives in Copeland and carries on even more

strengthened as leader. I think that Jeremy Corbyn's position as Labour

Leader will only end when he himself decides to go. I can't see how

anyone in the Labour Party can dislodge him and this mass

membership that they now have, you know, it dwarfs every other

political party. That's nothing to do with winning elections but try

telling them that. Is it only the left? Is Mr Corbyn's fate in the

hands of the left now? No, I don't think it is. But, we went through...

It's not in your hands any more. You say any hands, in terms of the

Labour Parliamentary party who is the gateway to candidates, they

should have realised that before, by the way, the only strength they've

got in this is to be the gateway to who stands as a candidate. There's

no feeling within the PLP first of all that they want to challenge

Jeremy Corbyn, he's there until the next general election no matter what

happens tonight and when there is another election, they'll think more

carefully about it than they did last time. Thank you both.

Bonkers Tom Watson got so gassed off by Jeremy Corbyn's performance that

he started dabbing on the frontbenches. Y of-lo. Weirdness is

in the Spotlight. Well, the Prime Minister ditched

the weird acronym for something Ordinary working families up

and down this country. Despite Mrs May's attempts to appear

ordinary, singer Katy Perry presented the PM's special

relationship with Donald Trump in a curious way at last

night's Brit Awards. Was it weird when

Donald Trump said this? MPs were divided over the matter

in Westminster Hall on Monday. I think of my five-year-old daughter

when I think about a man who thinks Which one of us has not made some

ridiculous sexual comment Meanwhile, was it weird

when Sutton United's Wayne Shaw ate Wayne Shaw has decided

to get stuck into a pie. The incident got him

into a whole heap of trouble. Milton Jones's comedy

is a bit weird. How many tiny farmers

with their tiny ploughs does it take In strange political

times, is weirdness Milton Jones joins us now. Is

weirdness part of your act? I thought I was weird until the

beginning of the programme. Very good point. Fair point. My act is

talking nonsense with messed up hair until Boris Johnson stole that.

Basically I used to do my one-liners as myself and just go in, but on a

Monday night in Essex you go in and suddenly it would be a bit

threatening to the middle class bloke talking weirdy stuff, however

if you stuck your hair up. I was sitting in traffic the other day and

I got run over, normally I say, the higher the hair the thicker the

crowd so I might have to put the hair a bit higher this evening. Your

combined IQ is in double figures barely. You can't insult us, we get

this all the time. Is weirdness underrated? When I think of some of

the politicians that are well known, people kind of like or talk about

Boris Johnson or Denis Skinner or Jacob Rees-Mogg, some may regard

them as weird but it makes them distinctive? If people don't

remember my name, they go the guy with the hair and the shirts. You

want to kind of choose what people remember you by. The press will

choose it and it won't necessarily be something you like. Do you have a

favourite political weirdo, other than these two? Farage is a

colourful character which is ironic. Obviously Trump. He's going to be

remembered as very weird. I mean he makes no bones about it. I think he

read somewhere that Mexicans make good fighters, but it's actually

pronounced fajitas. Your hair is understated for a Trump

impersonator? But the more intelligence the company the hair

comes down. We'll keep it up for tonight. Is Theresa May a bit weird?

No. I don't think so. I wish she were a bit more weird because I

entirely agree that if we are going to get ahead, there has to be

something distinctive about her that people can remember. No. I think she

is, to use her word, "ordinary". Is Jeremy Corbyn a bit weird? No, I

think the whole thing about weirdness doesn't translate to

politics if someone is trying to be weird. The thing about politics is

authenticity. It's much-used words but people like Jacob Rees-Mogg,

they are being themselves and they are not putting on an act. I think

Milton does this because he has an act to put on. People don't like

politicians who put on an act and weirdness is a concept that works.

Power does tend to corrupt in the end and people become weird almost

in office. The sort of Mugabes and Putins to some extent. Neither of us

was corrupted. We didn't have any chance. The decision was taken for

them. Absolutely. Things are weird. Many used to regard Brexit as weird.

Mr Corbyn's form of socialism as well.

People are conscious about what is true and not and who they can trust.

I can't see a way out of it because who is the referee? Exactly. People

who want to be the referee, like the mainstream media, a lot of people

won't accept the mainstream It doesn't matter what Trump does now,

there'll always be a large section of people who believe in it.

By not doing that, does that make you a weirdo? You could argue it's

an alternative within an alternative. I get whole families

coming along to the pantomime-ish atmosphere. Children don't know how

to behave, they put their hand up and ask a question and I like that.

Because of the approach you take, you can get families coming along

and bring the kids? Yes. For a lot of stand-ups, you would have to

think twice about that. The parents bring them as well, I don't know if

that is good or bad. What are you doing these days? Taking my

weirdness autumn tour all across Britain. Milton Jones is out there,

that's the main show. In every big city in town? 60-odd dates to start

with then a load more. Thank you for being with us.

Now that's not your lot for tonight folks, Milton,

Alan and Michael are off to Lou Lou's for Emmanuel Macron's

He's invited the finest brains in Britain to assist.

Which probably means you're wondering why these

They're just helping out behind the bar, tasked with making sure

For those of you not even up for a bit of bar work,

we're staying right here to bring you an all-night two for the price

of one political extravaganza, yes the results of the Stoke

on Trent Central and Copeland by elections.

As by-elections go, it doesn't get better than this.

So, here's Adam Fleming on how we got to the night political

anoraks have been dreaming of for years.

First tonight, let's look at Stoke-on-Trent,

where the people are picking a new MP after their previous

member of Parliament resigned to run a museum.

The thriller coaxes shape and beauty from the spinning mess of clay.

The area is famous for crockery, but as the potteries shutdown,

the Labour majority has started to look more fragile.

Down from 16,000 in the 1950s, to 5000 at the last election,

and 70% of voters here voted to leave the EU.

Turning this by-election into a tussle between Ukip and Labour.

The Ukip leader and their candidate found himself on the ropes over

claims he made about Hillsborough and whether he lived

Unfortunately, I think many feel they have been left behind

I think what they need is a national voice,

someone who can stand up in the House of Commons and be

listened to, and I believe I am that man to put Stoke-on-Trent

To make Ukip look opportunistic, the Labour candidate said

I live just outside the city in a pit village called Silverdale.

My daughter was born and I consider myself to be very local.

Apologising for tweets deemed to be rude, sexist and insulting

to supporters of Brexit. The Prime Minister popped

in to do what the other Westminster parties did.

Tried to stop it becoming a two horse race.

Stoke voted overwhelmingly to leave the European Union and we must

ensure that vote is reflected and Theresa May's clear

plan to deliver Brexit will ensure that is a success.

While everyone raced to be the biggest Brexiteer,

We are only at the start of the Article 50 process

and there is a long way to go and we are very clear

we are standing up for those who want to remain in the single

market, who want to protect jobs and investment in this country.

Now I'll take a short three and a half hour drive north

to the scenic constituency of Copeland on the edge

of the Lake District, where things were going nuclear.

It's home to the Sellafield reprocessing plant,

where the previous Labour MP has gone to work.

The Tory candidate found fame saving a local school,

but her campaign also focused on Jeremy Corbyn's lukewarm

Quite frankly, for Jeremy Corbyn to change his stance

at a by-election, when we know he has campaigned for decades

against nuclear, a leopard does not change its spots.

The Prime Minister dropped in, too, sensing an historic opportunity

for the government to gain a seat in a by-election.

I think looking at Mitcham and Morden we are just

Let's go over there and see if we are.

Mitcham and Morden in 1982 was the last time.

There the Conservative government won after a Labour MP defected

Sadly, the BBC got the graphic wrong.

Hopefully, that does not happen tonight.

Back in Copeland, one party argued the whole nuclear

I don't think it is the magic bullet everyone has been led to believe

it is and if the nuclear industry had been so good for this area,

then why are towns like Whitehaven, you know, why are there

Why are people so hard up around here, and why

Nonetheless, Labour found itself on the defensive in a seat

I have spoken to thousands of people in this campaign and the first

thing they talk to me about is always the NHS.

They are really worried that critical services they need

at really dire times in their life are going to be stripped out of this

community and they, in essence, will not have a health service

Tonight's tale of two constituencies will tell us a little more

about the big issues in British politics.

Welcome if you're joining us for what promises to be

Not one, but two parliamentary by-elections to savour.

The Tories and Labour are going head-to-head in Copeland,

And Ukip's leader, Paul Nuttall, is making a concerted bid to wrest

Stoke-on-Trent Central from Labour control.

Both seats have been Labour bankers for years.

With me for the duration, however long that may be,

Conservative Cabinet Minister Matt Hancock.

One of Ukip's men in the London Assembly, David Kurten.

Representing their Lordships' House, Baroness Kath Pinnock

And last but not least, the Shadow Cabinet's Barry Gardiner.

Welcome, all of you. Thank you for being here. Barry Gardiner, we have

two Labour seats up for grabs. It is highly unusual for the opposition to

lose seats in by-elections to the government. The fact that it might

speaks volumes for the state of your party. Look, it would be

unprecedented since 1960, and I think we are acutely aware of that,

but you are acutely aware also that what we have at the moment is a huge

change in the whole of British politics as a result of Brexit. And

I think it's impossible to consider these by-elections as being in

normal times, in that sense. Why must you knock Brexit has changed

the face of UK politics in a profound way. Those people who had

traditional party loyalties, both in Matt's party and my own, for Matt,

while most of his colleagues voted to remain, a substantial number

voted to leave, yet only 44% of Conservative voters voted to remain.

The rest voted to leave. In my party, 64% of voters voted to

remain, but actually 66% of our constituency seats, 64% of our

constituency seats were actually Leave seats. But how does this

explain how you might lose Copeland? I'm not saying we are going to lose.

I said you might, but how does this explain in opposition in the midterm

of a government that has its own problems that would lose a seat like

Copeland? You talk about the midterm of a government. We have a

relatively new Prime Minister, albeit she was unelected, and she is

still in her honeymoon period. You can paint this as a historic

occasion, if we were to lose, but my point is that actually there are

some exceptional circumstances. Do you buy any of that? Know, frankly.

I think that Labour are in deep trouble. These are two strongholds

for the Labour Party. They have held them for 50 odd years. They are the

sort of seats that they could put people like Tristram Hunt, an

obvious southerner, into a north Midlands seat and he won it with

ease. So these should be easily won for Labour. Lets go up to Stoke,

where the count is taking place in a sports hall. You can lay out all the

tables in a space like that and do the counting on them. Very

efficient. Gerard Batten is a member of the European Parliament for Ukip

and he joins us from the count. Can you tell us, how is your party

likely to fare tonight? Or this morning? It's a bit too early to

say. It's definitely a two horse race between us and Labour and what

I've been saying for the last couple of weeks is it is either going to be

two thousandths and Labour or it's going to be a close result and it

could go either way. -- 2000 to Labour. But the options you gave me,

it's either a couple of thousand to Labour or a very close result, that

doesn't sound that you are too confident that Paul Nuttall has

pulled this off. It's a very difficult task, of course, to win a

seat like this, which has been in Labour hands since 1950, I believe.

To win a seat from another party which has that long established a

record will always be difficult. Of course, we have seen two things in

this election which have been pretty bad. The Labour Party have had

absolutely nothing positive to say about itself but it has attacked

Ukip on the line that we want to privatise the NHS, which isn't true,

has never been true, and we have had that on the doorstep. The other

thing has been be sustained character assassination via the

media against Paul Nuttall, some elements of the media, which has

also played on the doorstep. So the complaints about Mr Nuttall, is

sometime vicarious relationship with the truth, that has cut through on

the doorsteps of Stoke? No, it hasn't. Paul has explained this many

times in the last couple of weeks. He was at Hillsborough, he was 12

years old. His press officer put something up on the website that he

didn't check properly and obviously over egged the pudding a bit. When

he realised that had happened, you frankly admitted he had made a

mistake and he apologised, but that is the extent of it. -- the frankly

admitted. But it wasn't just Hillsborough. Although I think that

this matter quite a lot of people. It was also his relationship with

Tranmere Rovers, which wasn't quite what he had claimed it to be, and

his so-called Ph.D., which was not a Ph.D. . It just created a sense that

he had a lot of questions to answer, and I would suggest it got in the

way of you getting your other messages across, that Mr Nuttall

turned out to not be the candidate that you really needed to win Stoke.

We have had elements of the media who don't want Ukip to win the work

these things up to the extent that is far beyond their relevance or

truths, and they have managed to get those things on the doorstep, so

people like the Guardian and Channel 4 can be proud of themselves. They

have done the damage they have done to Ukip, rather than reporting the

election campaign itself and the issues that matter. Are you telling

me that the Guardian and Channel 4 News are big in the backstreet

terraces of Stoke? It gets into the mainstream media and is repeated on

radio programmes. You are talking about it tonight. People have been

voting on it, so we can't affect the results. People who don't read the

Guardian can see the press reviews on Sky, for example. It seems from

your demeanour and what you are saying that you are getting your

excuses in first, aren't you must knock I didn't quite catch that. You

are getting your excuses in now. From your demeanour and the way you

are going on about the disadvantages Mr Nuttall faced, many of his own

making, that it hasn't gone as well for you as you would have hoped. I

have fought many by-election campaigns, general election

campaigns, European election campaigns since I helped set Ukip up

in 1993, and this has been about the dirtiest campaign I've ever seen.

Aren't by-election is usually pretty dirty? Most by-election I have

covered have been pretty dirty. That is what they are. Well, maybe you

have seen more than I have, Andrew. I'd probably have. It's about the

worst example I've seen. I've never experienced anything like this, in a

general election or a by-election. Those of us who remember the

Bermondsey by-election many years ago in London, we are really shocked

by nothing these days. Let me ask you before we go, because we are

grateful for your time, and I know it's difficult when the result is

still on Claire. If you cannot win in Stoke, which Mr Nuttall called

Brexit central, this was one of the Brexit constituencies, if you can't

win there, where can you win? With all due respect to Stoke-on-Trent

Central, it was number 72 on our target list, so I think we have done

well however get on. In all be Ukip elections I have taken part in, if

we win, it's called a flash in the pan, and if we lose, it's called the

end of Ukip. The party has never been more united than it has in this

campaign. We have had hundreds of people out. People have been solidly

behind Paul, working for a win. This has brought the party together

behind his leadership, so it is positive for us whatever the result.

It is too early to call. We could be winning this. We won't know for an

hour or two yet. We will be here until we get it. We will see how

united Ukip remains when we get the result. Thank you for joining us. We

may come back to you as the night goes on. Matt Hancock, your party

tried very hard in Stoke, did it? We campaigned in step. Did you try

hard? I think we did. I went to Copeland. You didn't go to Stoke?

What is the name of your candidate in Stoke? It is... It is... I didn't

meet him. It's Jack Lenox. I went and campaigned in Copeland. The

Prime Minister went to both. We campaigned in both. Clearly, the

central point... Of course you campaigned in both, it's a

by-election. My point was, did you try very hard, or in fact did you

not really poor the resources into Copeland, because that was the one

that you hoped to win? There would be nothing stupid ever doing that,

can we be honest? No, we campaigned in both. The Prime Minister going to

both shows that we had a serious campaign in both. If we won either,

it would be extraordinary. Well, that may be the case, and we were

talking earlier about what a story it would be if Labour lost Copeland.

But let's look at Stoke-on-Trent Central, in the heart of the

potteries. This was the result in the general election. The turnout

was only 51%, which is pretty low for a general election. Tristram

Hunt was the Labour candidate, the sitting MP. He got 39%. As you can

see, Ukip and the Conservatives were sort of nip and tuck. I think Ukip

was marginally ahead. In our rounding up, they were both on 23%.

Then a big drop down to independent, Lib Dems, and the Greens at 4%. When

you look at that, it is interesting that, given that you were both, Matt

Hancock, Ukip and the Conservatives, starting from the same base, if I

can put it that way, that you still thought Copeland was a better bet.

We are a party in government and you hardly ever get closer when you are

in government. No, you tend to lose. You tend to lose your share of the

vote, too, never mind seats. Yes, so it would be extraordinary if we won

either. The fact that some people were talking about us having a

chance to win either is extraordinary. It isn't only about

the state of the Labour Party, as Barry was saying, but it's also

about the fact that the government, on any of the major big picture

issues, on the economy, safety, a plan for Brexit, or broader

leadership, is incredibly strong compared to any of the alternatives.

The fact that the government has got a plan and is working through it,

and that it is strong on the economy and on the core issues, actually, I

think there is an element here that is about government strength as

well, of course, as the chaos in the Labour Party. Our next chart shows

the decline of Labour Instagram sent -- in Stoke-on-Trent Central. Let's

remind ourselves of the versions of the Stoke-on-Trent constituency.

Constituency boundaries changed over the years. Getting back to the heart

of this constituency, Labour has held this since 1935. They held it

before then, too. It was only when they were in national government in

the early 30s when they lost. It is basically deemed a Labour heartland

seat, and has been for as long as people can remember. 1997, the year

of Tony Blair's landslide victory against John Major, Labour got 66%.

By 2001, another landslide victory for Mr Blair, the Labour share of

the vote was down to 61%. By 2005, Labour won again, third election in

a row, not so much by a landslide this time, but Labour's share of the

vote down to 53%. In 2010, when Mr Hunt was elected, down to 39%, and

he repeated 39 in 2015. Barry Gardiner, when you look at that

chart, that is a kind of visual representation of the decline of

Labour in one of its heartland seats. You are absolutely right, and

I think you are also right to point out that there were significant

boundary changes after 2005 which soared... So it is a bit hard to

compare like with like, but it isn't a pleasing chart. Yes, and Stoke was

an area of the country which really lost out in the way in which the

whole of the loss of manufacturing industry took grip in the UK. I

think it was one of those victims of globalisation, if you like. Why are

they abandoning Labour, in that case? Would they go to Labour to

protect them in a time of economic change? It also shows, and what

those bar chart show particularly, it shows that the attempt to try and

say that this is in some way about Jeremy Corbyn and the leadership is

absolutely wrong. It's about a long-term change in the way in which

British society is gone. Isn't that even more worrying for you, if it's

not just Jeremy Corbyn? It's a systemic problem that you face. I

think there is a real issue in the way in which the whole of politics

in this country is working, and the way in which people feel, the loss

of manufacturing, the imbalance there was in the economy, the way in

which financial services and other service industries have dominated,

and you can see that actually the way in which we respond to that as

political parties, I think that we in the Labour Party have a lot of

work to do to make sure that we have the proper response to that, but

it's about equality and fairness, and about ensuring that those

communities that are currently being left behind, like Stoke and

Copeland, have people there arguing for them.

The Labour Party is meant to be for people who were left behind, people

who are suffering from major economic changes. It was about

people who were on the wrong end of the Industrial Revolution. It was

people who hadn't had a vote. It was people who were in slums, people who

were being left behind by general prosperity, yet now the people being

left behind don't turn to you. In fact what I was saying was it was

the change in the decline in manufacturing industry and Labour of

course is built on those workers in manufacturing industry, and as

manufacturing declined, it's not surprising therefore that the Labour

vote declined in the same way. You are right of course, Labour has

always stuck up for those who are marginalised, for those in the slum

housing, but actually increasingly we come into a much harsher society

and I think it's difficult to get that voice and get that appreciated

when people feel that they are on the receiving end of it. They don't

feel as generous, sometimes. Let's go to Copeland, where we are joined

by Kat Smith. She's an MP from the area, I think her constituency is

adjacent to Copeland. She's in the Jeremy Corbyn Shadow Cabinet, she is

live from the counting Copeland. We understand it's on a knife edge of

Kat Smith. Are we any clear yet which way the knife is going to cut?

Well, it's fair to say that it's looking very close here at Copeland,

and I think that's a testament to the campaign that the Labour Party

has run here, at a time when we are somewhere between 15 and 18 points

behind in the polls, to be still waiting on the resulting Copeland

and not sure which way it's going to fall is testament to the campaign we

ran and tapping into the issues that people feel about very strongly

around here, which is about the NHS and particularly about hospital

services in West Cumbria. If it's on a night -- knife aids this is a

Labour seat you are defending in a by-election in the middle of a

Conservative government. It shouldn't be on a knife edge. You

should be walking it? Andrew, I think it's fair to say that Copeland

has never been a safe Labour seat. It's always been a marginal seat.

It's always been a Labour seat. With boundary changes its become more

marginal. We've never held Copeland with huge majorities. It's always

been one of those seats which is made up of very different types of

demographics. When did you last lose it? Where Labour has always held as

far as I'm aware the seats of Copeland, it's never been by

particularly huge majorities. It was considered to be one of our marginal

seats and a key want to defend the last two general elections. At a

time when the Labour Party isn't doing particularly well in the

national polls, to be waiting to find out the result from Copeland,

to me, suggests that the issues we've been talking about in this

by-election campaign, issues around hospital services, issues actually

about West Cumberland Hospital, which is about an hour's drive away

from Carlisle, people having to travel. I understand that. Of

course. It's something people feel strongly about in this part of the

world. They may do, but we've yet to see if they feel strongly enough to

keep your party in power. If this is nothing unusual, that Labour is on a

knife edge here defending the in a by-election in the middle of a

Conservative government, when did you last lose a by-election to a

Conservative government? I think I'll let some political historian

give you the answer to that one. All right, I'm not a historian, but I'll

give you, it was 1960. I've lost the sound. It was 1960 that you last

lost, and you only had a majority of 47 in that seat in 1960, and it came

hard on the heels of the 1959 Conservative landslide election

victory. The reason I raised that is to show how in modern times,

unprecedented it would be for Labour to lose a seat like Copeland, and

that rather the fact that at its on a knife edge is hardly a testament

to your campaign, it's a testament to the state the Labour Party is in

at the moment. Well, back in 2017, we've seen the Conservatives throw

the kitchen sink at this by-election in terms of the resources they've

put into Copeland. Given the national polling figures, Labour

really, we shouldn't be in with a fighting chance if national polls

were to be reflected locally, but the fact is we're still waiting for

the result. We don't know what it's going to be. That's a testament to a

really strong Labour campaign and people's strongly held beliefs about

NHS services in West Cumbria. Despite the fact you think you've

done a great campaign, sorry about your struggling with your MPs, it's

happened to me too, it's so annoying at times but I'm grateful to you for

persevering with it. If you hear me, I'll continue. Despite the fact you

think the knife edge is a testament to your campaign and you are quite

right to emphasise the importance particularly of this maternity

Hospital, potential closure, driving up I think it's the A575 to

Carlisle, it's not something you want to be doing if you're about to

give birth, I understand big issues there, but if you don't win, even

with all that, even with the NHS, State of, local issues of the NHS,

what would that then say about the Labour Party? I'm not sure if I

heard all of the question, but I think... It was quite long! What

happens if Labour loses? We haven't got a result here yet and it's too

early to speculate. OK, all right. Kat Smith, we'll leave it for now.

Because as I can see, that earpiece is causing new real problems. I hope

we can come back to you when we've sorted that out as the night goes

on. Let's just look at the Copeland result, in the general election,

that Labour won. 42% of the vote, they got, the turnout was 64%, a

decent turnout that in a big rural constituency. Labour went into this

by-election, Copeland is geographically the biggest

constituency Labour has in England and it stretches, you see on our map

their, from the coast of the north-east of England, into the Lake

District. It's bigger than Copeland district itself, and Labour took it

with 42% of the vote, Jamie Read the candidate, the Conservatives came

second with 36%, the Lib Dems way down on 16, that says Labour there

but it must be a different, actually, I'm not sure what Labour

at 3%, anyway, it's 3% so we don't need to detain ourselves too much!

The Labour majority, 2500. It is a decent majority in 2015. They were

defending. Not a huge majority, but for

decent majority in 2015. They were defending. Not a huge majority, but

for a Labour opposition in a by-election, in the middle of the

Conservative government, it's the kind of majority that in years gone

by Labour would not only have no problem defending, but actually,

would almost certainly as a share of the vote increased their share of

the vote, and yet now we have it on a knife edge. Kat Smith said that

Copeland has always been tight, it's always been close. In 1997, Labour

won 58% of the voting Copeland. The idea this is somehow an Uber

marginal... I agree, it's not an Uber marginal. But 97 wasn't

exceptional. Your party was destroyed. We haven't won this seat

since 1935. No, you haven't. Actually, you haven't won it since

1951, and that was only because of the national government, Labour was

down to a rump of about 50 seats in that election. We only need to go

back in time that far, if we are still on at 5am at this stage. Let

me just show you, interesting, because Barry Gardiner was

mentioning earlier on about how Brexit, in some ways seems to be

changing the nature of British politics and changing voters'

relationship with the political parties and it's an interesting

thought. Let's look at Copeland there. Both the seats up tonight

were Leave seats, one in the Midlands, the other in the

north-west of inward. Copeland voted 60% to Leave, Remain 40%, these are

estimates because we didn't vote by constituency in the referendum or

count, but these are pretty good estimates that have been worked on.

Stoke-on-Trent Central, even more Brexit. Wipe Paul Nuttall called it

Brexit Central, Leave 65%, Remain only 35%. So two pretty strong

Brexit seats, and of course in Stoke-on-Trent, Labour chose a

Remain, a pro-remain candidate, although he did say if he'd been in

the House he'd have voted for Article 50. David Kurten, Ukip, if I

can bring you in, looking at Stoke Central, you had a lot going for

user. A constituency that voted 65% to leave on your key issue. Yes,

absolutely, politics has changed since Brexit and it's a big issue.

We are seeing lots of enthusiasm on the doors and to date, people who

have been in the polling stations say there's been a lot of enthusiasm

for people who were voting for Ukip, whereas the turnout has been quite

low. Labour hasn't been able to get out so many people that voted for

them in the past. No, but by-election is always have low

turnout and enthusiasm would you do you any good if you don't win. We

are still hoping we will win and the results aren't in yet. We will have

to see in a couple of hours' time. My point is there was a confluence

of events, which gave you a great opportunity. This was, as we've seen

from the charts there, a substantial Leave seat. It's a by-election

caused by a Labour MP resigning, a Labour MP resigning to go and work

in a very big, posh, extravagant museum in South Kensington. Causing

a by-election that the people of Stoke didn't really think needed to

be caused, they'd only just re-voted him in as their MP. People don't

like when by-elections are called to suit the politicians' convenience,

so you had that going for you, you had the Tories thinking Copeland is

a better bet for us, so we will put more resources in there. You add up

these things and you picked Paul Nuttall, your new leader, he's a

northerner himself, he's anti-metropolitan, and to the

liberal consensus. You had a confluence of events, I would

suggest, that meant this should have been a seat that you should have

won. Well, we still can win and the votes being counted. You showed the

graphic a few minutes ago of Labour's vote going down and down

and down over the years and whatever happens tonight, that vote will go

down again for Labour. It just shows the Metropolitan part of Labour are

very much out of touch with the ordinary people who live in areas

like Stoke. If they still win the love that matters to you. That's

hypothetical. May not be for very long. We go back to Copeland. This

looks like the one that is really on a knife edge because we've got the

independent mayor of Copeland, Mike Starkie. Because you are an

Independent, we're going to treat you not just as the Independent

mayor, we're going to deputise you as one of our correspondence for

tonight. Let me ask you, as the independent mayor, what's your

feeling? A knife edge? As I asked before, which way is it going? It's

very, very close. When the final result comes in its going to be down

to hundreds rather than thousands. Over the course of the night, I

think talking to people around the hall, the Conservatives seem to be

growing a bit in confidence, so maybe that gives an indication it's

tipping their way, but albeit very slightly. Was this a well fought

campaign by the two main parties that were in the running to win

here? Did it grabs the people of Copeland? Well, the turnout, 51%, is

quite good for a by-election, when you look at some of the by-elections

round the country in recent years. We are bit down on what the vote was

in the general election, back in 2015. But as I said, for a

by-election to get over 50% turnout, I'm led to believe that's a pretty

good turnout. So it's obviously got the interest of a good number of the

people of the borough. This has been, as we've been saying, a Labour

seat for as long as anybody can remember. If Labour were to lose it

in a by-election, under a Conservative government, that would

surprise you, I would suggest, would it not?

I think it would be a catastrophic result for Labour to lose Copeland.

They have held the seat that 82 years. I doubt anyone alive can

remember anything other than a Labour MP here. Even the result

coming in close in Labour's Faber is way down on what you would expect.

Thank you for joining us from the count in Whitehaven, the coastal

town of Whitehaven, the biggest town, I think, in your constituency.

Thank you for joining us. We will see if it proves right. The

independent mayor saying that he thinks the Tories might just have

clinched it, but we don't know. Who is smiling more than others? We

haven't got a clue. Hundreds of votes could be in it, the mayor

said. I hate to say this, because my heart could sink at the thought, but

there could be a recount if there is that vote, which would cheer up my

panel no end! Let's go to the end -- to the man we always depend on John

Curtice, professor of politics at the university of Strathclyde. He is

a few hundred yards away in our Westminster newsroom. What are your

thoughts about these two constituencies? Let's talk about

Copeland. The truth is they have only been three occasions, three

by-elections since 1945 in which the principal opposition party has lost

a by-election to the government. The last one was in mid-June and Morden

in 1982. That was a special circumstance, a sitting Labour MP,

Bruce Douglas, defected to the FTP and insisted on resigning his seat

and defending it as an SDP candidate, and the boat was split.

Before that, you have to go back to Brighouse in 1960, Sunderland south

in 1953, and in both cases, the Labour majority was wafer thin. 51%

share in one case, 53 in the other. In Copeland, Labour are starting 6.5

points behind. If I stress that, if the Labour Party have lost Copeland,

it will count arithmetically as the worst defeat for an opposition at

the hands of the government in any by-election since 1945. One would

simply have to say that this is in line with the evidence of the

opinion polls, with Labour running at about 26% in the national opinion

polls, and the only time since 1945 they had been in a worse position

was during the darkest days of Gordon Brown's administration in the

wake of the MPs' expense scandal, so it would be further indication of

how weak Labour's position is. Over the last couple of weeks, the

tension has been rather more on Stoke and whether Ukip could win it.

The truth that we should bear in mind is that Stoke was always the

saviour of the seats. And I think perhaps Ukip, in claiming they are

going to go for the Labour vote in the north of England, are rather

misleading where that opportunity actually lies in the wake of the

Brexit vote. If you look at the opinion polls, unsurprisingly,

hardly anybody who voted for Remain is voting for Ukip. And all their

supporters are coming from that half of the electorate that voted to

leave. You ask yourself, of the two parties, Conservative and Labour,

which of the two had more Leave voters, even in Labour held

constituencies in the north and Midlands? The answer to that

question is not Labour but the Conservatives. I think the truth is

that Ukip, in trying to go for the Labour vote, yes, they have already

clearly got the decline of Labour vote in Stoke, and Ukip have so far

done well by winning over a certain section of the ex-Labour vote, but I

think they now need to realise that, given the nature of the Labour vote

now, actually their target should be the Conservatives, not Labour,

because it is the Conservatives who at the moment have the support in

the polls of Leave voters. We hear that we may not be far from a result

at Stoke-on-Trent Central, because the turnout was quite low, and it's

a smaller constituency and Copeland. We can see the counting going on.

Quite a lot of them look like they have finished counting, sitting

there with their bundles of ballots neatly piled in front of them,

looking satisfied with a job well done, patiently waiting on a few. I

think nearly all the votes have been counted. What is happening there is

that they are looking at some contested ballot papers, some ballot

papers that the adjudicator will have to decide which way they should

be counted, or not. And, if they are, which party should get them. I

think we are down to the final stretch there. I think we have got

Labour's Jack Dromey in Stoke. Just a quick process question, it looks

like we are not far from a result? Yes, I think that's right. The count

has been going on for some hours. It remains tough and tight. It's a

3-way marginal. But I think we are right to be increasingly optimistic

about the likely outcome. Doesn't it worry you that, even if you hold

onto it, but it has been a lot more of a contest than it really should

have been for a Labour Party in opposition, under a Conservative

government? It doesn't worry me at all, because this was a defining

moment. It was either the moment that Ukip broke through in Labour's

northern heartland or it was the moment that the tide was turned on

Ukip. When Paul Nuttall run for leadership of Ukip, he said, vote

for me and I will break Labour in its heartland. Well, I think the

outcome of tonight will be not that Labour is broken but that Paul

Nuttall and Ukip is broken. Only last week, Nigel Farage said that

winning in Stoke, talking about turning Stoke into the Ukip capital

of Britain. Nigel Farage said, this is fundamental to Ukip. Well, if we

win tonight, Ukip have some profound questions to answer, because they

have been thoroughly discredited in this campaign. We have fought a

good, positive, local campaign. In Paul Nuttall, you have a man who

simply wants to stop off in Stoke on his road to Westminster, using the

city, and it became increasingly clear throughout that the campaign

that the man had a loose sense the truth. But if you have a tough fight

to win Stoke in a by-election, where would you have a tough fight? We

have much to do to rebuild, to regain the trust and confidence of

the British people, but there is a simple reality arising out of Stoke.

Paul Nuttall said that we are now the party of the working class, of

working people. Labour is, has always been and always will be the

party of working people. So, ultimately, if we win tonight, it is

the good people of Stoke rejecting the fundamental nature of Ukip,

which would seek to divide and to peddle hatred for their own party

political advantage. But your share of the vote has been in steady

decline since 1997, in a state -- a seat like Stoke, a Labour heartland

seat. If it is lower than 39% tonight, this morning, it will be in

further decline as well. How can that give you any comfort, if your

vote is declining in a seat like Stoke-on-Trent Central? Tonight, we

turned the tide, Andrew. But we have much to do. Of that there is no

doubt, to regain trust and confidence. I understand the sense

of grievance in Stoke. I first came to Stoke the best part of 35 years

ago in the trade union movement. Then, you could walk out of a good

job in a factory on Friday morning and walk into another one on Monday.

Now the world of work is much more insecure. Wages in Stoke are beneath

the national average. So I understand those discontents, and

what we have to do is effectively voice those at the next stages, but

what was so good about our contain what we did precisely that. It was a

local campaign, rooted in the concerns of the people Stoke,

arguing there was a choice between taking somebody who simply wanted to

use Stoke to Westminster or sending somebody who is of Stoke and will

stand up for Stoke. Well, he is actually from Suffolk, the

candidate, so I wouldn't overdo the Stoke element. He is not a native

son of Stoke. He has made his life here. He has married here and is

bringing up his kid here. He is a man who eats, sleeps and freeze

Stoke, somebody who will stand up for Stoke in circumstances where, as

came out strongly in the by-election campaign, there is this feeling in

Stoke, which I sympathise with, that Westminster is 1000 miles away. They

are squeezed between Greater Manchester in the north and

Birmingham in the south. They want Stoke to be put on the map by

somebody who is off them and will stand up for them, and that is what

I believe will happen tonight. Did Mr Blair's intervention on the

Brexit debate, or Peter Mandelson saying, that the thinks his main

mission in life now is to do down Jeremy Corbyn? Did that do any

damage? We were monitoring throughout impact on how people

felt. Be straight answer is no. What was felt on the doorstep, and we

were getting these reports every day, was both support for our

campaign, the hospital facing 100,000 million pounds deficit, the

children centre threatened with closure by a Conservative- Ukip

council, and a strong position saying that Brexit will happen, we

will leave the European union, let's see who is best for Stoke. We stood

up for national security in Stoke. This is a city with a defence

culture. Jordan Robertson came here and said, Labour founded Nato. We

have never needed Nato more than in a dangerous and uncertain world. Did

your leader say that during the by-election campaign? Did Mr Corbyn

say that? It was our candidate in a very good local campaign that stood

up for that defence culture in Stoke, with its defence

manufacturing and recruiting ground for the Army. Just one other thing,

what we also did was to recognise that sense of Englishness in Stoke,

that pride in Stoke pride in country, and what we are not going

to do is to cede the ground of a truism to the right. -- the ground

of patriotism. For too long, people like Paul Nuttall have sought to

exploit that for their own advantage. We have seen a highly

effective local campaign, rooted in the realities and concerns of the

people of Stoke. I believe, if we win tonight, it will be a defining

moment, of that there is no doubt. The stakes could not have been

higher. Now Ukip will have to reflect on where they go. I know

where we are going. Sending an excellent mental Westminster. David

Kurten has been listening. Best an excellent man to Westminster. What

do you think of what he said? It doesn't sound any Labour man I have

heard from in the last couple of years. Saying he is the patriotic

working class, you have such a divide in Labour between the

metropolitan elite, the inhabitants of the Westminster bubble, and those

outside who voted for Brexit. You have a candidate here you'll called

Brexit a pile of excrement. I would the exact word. Best I want. Talking

about Ukip being associated with hatred is ridiculous. Our party,

obviously we want to come out of the European Union, and that is because

we want the money we spent on bureaucrats spent in this country on

the NHS. We don't want to go ahead with a chest to, for example. Want

to spend that on front line services, education, health, the

police and force and things people need. -- we don't want to go ahead

with High Speed 2. We see here that negativity, trying to smear the

opposition. He talks about his own campaign being positive, but we see

here in everything that he said a very negative campaign. His attitude

is quite negative. You reported Jordan Robertson, and by the way,

can interrupts, because Paul Nuttall is arriving at account. By the way,

he hasn't been around Stoke much. I got that, Jack Dromey. I wanted ask

you a question, talking about George Robinson, we have never needed Nato

more, him being a former Nato Secretary-General, so it's not

surprising he is saying that. Has Jeremy Corbyn ever said, we have

never needed Nato more? The policy of the Labour Party is to support

Nato, because Nato is necessary to the defence of national security,

not just of the British people but of continental Europe. But has

Jeremy Corbyn ever said that? Powers was a united campaign with everybody

behind it. -- powers was. But has Jeremy Corbyn ever said that Nato

has never been needed more? Look, we are a united party. That is not what

I am asking you. At all levels, there has been support from Jeremy

Douglas for everything we have said in Stoke. What we are saying is

where labour stands. But you can't tell me if your leader has ever said

that he supports Nato and believes that Nato has ever been more

necessary. Can you tell me when he said that? It is the policy of the

Labour Party, of which he is leader, to support Nato. Has he ever said

it? Andrew, with the greatest of respect, we can twist and turn on

this. It's a simple question, as your leader ever said he supports

Nato and it has never been more important? It's a simple question. I

have given you my answer, from Jeremy Douglas, everything we have

said in Stoke is said by a united party. -- from Jeremy downwards.

We thank you, we are getting close to a result. Our viewers will make

up their minds on how you answer that as the view was always do. I

just need to go straight back to Copeland now, to Andrew Stevenson

MP. Conservative MP. He's in the counting Copeland. Mr Stevenson, can

you bring is up-to-date on what we are all calling a knife edge? It's

still very early here. We are now properly into the count and the

ballots are being separated. It's looking close. But I can't tell you

who is ahead at this current time. So you are not sure if you have won

or not? We are not sure, but the fact that this is close in a seat

that the Labour Party have held for over 80 years, against the governing

party which of course governing parties don't gain in by-elections.

The last time was 1982. It's a humiliation for Jeremy Corbyn. Yes,

do you thing we are in recount territory? It's too early to say who

is ahead of who's going to come out of this at the end of the night, but

it is clear that there are some worried Labour faces at this count.

If you don't win, it would be a bit disappointing for you. As John

Curtice was explaining, it's historically would be a huge event

if you were to win, but given that you did think you were a ring with a

chance in and new new -- in unusual circumstances, given the resources

you put into it, you had a strong candidate, you had the nuclear issue

on your side as well, the Prime Minister visited. It would, in the

end, be a bit of a disappointment for you now, wouldn't it? I think we

do have an exceptional candidate, Trudy Harrison. She's fought a

really positive and upbeat campaign hearing Copeland and we fought for

every vote. The Prime Minister did visited, Jeremy Corbyn visited three

times and said the Labour Party would hold and other members of the

Shadow Cabinet said the Labour Party would increase their majority here.

It's too early to say, but it doesn't look like Labour has

increased their majority. You are seeing a safe Labour seat on the

verge of potentially changing hands. All right, suitably cautious, Andrew

Stephenson Wilson we shall wait and see. Thank you from joining us from

the Whitehaven sports centre, whether counties. Matt Hancock, the

Prime Minister did visit Copeland, but I'm not sure she did your

candidate any favours. She was unable to give any guarantees on

this threat and maternity hospital and she was unable to give any

guarantees on whether the new new nuclear power station would go

ahead. She went and supported, Trudy Harrison was a brilliant candidate.

I really hope for her sake. Stick with my question. The Prime Minister

went, it's clear that position on the NHS was very clear. She wasn't

clear on the maternity hospital. The position is very clear, which is

there is a locally led review and it's right that it's clinically led

and just because there's a by-election on you can't then have a

political in possession of a result. What we did find... So she couldn't

give clarification. What we found out was Trudy Harrison was

campaigning incredibly hard and taking the issue right to the Prime

Minister. And on the other issue, because there are plans to build a

proposal to build a new nuclear power station, indeed I think three

is the long-term plan to build there, and of course Sellafield is

there. It's an important nuclear power, it is a major employer, an

employer of well-paid jobs as well, she was not able to clarify if that

was going to go ahead either. What did she do to your campaign? The --

development at Moorside is important and we are working hard to land

that, but of course it's early stages in landing that deal.

Toshiba, who were going to build it, so they can't afford it now. Last

week they put out a clarity kind statement, but you are right, the

nuclear issue they said they are continuing to work on the deal.

Whatever the situation with that. Uncertainty, we can describe it as.

Our candidates, Trudy, her husband works at Sellafield, she was very

strong on the nuclear issue and it's an incredibly important issue. All

right, are you feeling a bit left out, the Lib Dems here! Quite often

by-elections are the Lib Dems are the story, as they were in Richmond.

You won a by-election tonight, quite a spectacular results, in local

government. But you are nowhere here, are you? It's not territory

for us. You saw from the result that you showed from last time that we

are going to come from a fairly low base. Very low you could call it.

I'm confident we will increase from that and as you say we are doing

really well in local elections tonight. From not standing last

time, we got 54 ascent of the vote from the Tories and in Devon and

Kettering. Brilliant. Why are you doing so well in local government

by-elections, but not seeming to move much in the national polls?

Because we had such loss of credibility in 2015, so we've got to

gradually build that back up again, which we are doing. 33 net gains.

I'm not arguing, not just good result, very good results. I've got

you that, it's the national poll I was asking about. Liberal Democrats

have always built from the bottom up and just watch this space. I'd like

to pick up on one point. Very briefly. That Jack Dromey made. He

was arguing a Labour victory in Stoke would be some kind of triumph.

In every election from the 50s, to 2005, Labour have got over 50% of

the vote in Stoke. This idea that a Labour victory and Stoke is some

kind of triumph for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party is for the

birds. It would be a relief, I would suggest was yellow it's

extraordinary that it's even... Let's go back to Stoke, we are near

the result. Chris Mason is there, bring us up to date. I think we are

edging towards a result. Never a sentence I liked it out loud for the

obvious consequences I'll probably be wrong and it will be an hour and

a half away or whatever. But the main candidates are here. Gareth

Snell for Labour, Paul Nuttall for Ukip arriving in the last 15 or 20

minutes and it looked I think like a man who thinks he's going to lose.

The mood music coming out of Ukip sources here, throughout the

evening, has been on the heavy expectation management side, so

they've been talking about what they see as the drawbacks of the first

past the post system. They've been talking, and I haven't heard this

before from them during the campaign, but they suddenly started

referring to the fact that Stoke-on-Trent Central was 74th 75th

on their list of target seats in 2015, which they were not saying

until this evening. -- Labour talking about how important it would

be to be Ukip, but they've help this seat since 1950 and on tweaked

boundaries since 1935, so even if there was a certain element of

surprise if Labour hold onto this seat, historically it should not be

surprising at all. The more I spoke to Jack Dromey there, the more he

talked, the more it was clear that he thinks they've won. He thinks

Labour have won. I think that was clear, from everything he said. Yes,

absolutely. He said to me earlier on that he was cautiously optimistic,

which it usually political code for having won and won fairly

comfortable. One source said Labour could win very comfortably indeed.

Throughout the night the mood music from Labour has been one of victory.

The mood music from Ukip has been one of defeat and there hasn't been

a shift in that since the polls closed at 10pm. I think we are

heading vaguely in the direction of declaration, because Paul Nuttall

and Ukip were making the argument earlier in the evening that he

wouldn't roll up here until there was roughly half an hour to go. So

maybe, just maybe, we might be less than half an hour away from the

result. If Labour has won reasonably comfortably, put it another way, if

Ukip has performed reasonably badly, it would suggest there could be

blood on the Ukip floor by tomorrow morning. Yes, I was chatting to Paul

Oakden, the chairman of Ukip and making that exact point, because

what is really striking is that Paul Nuttall, last summer, it seems an

eternity ago at this, but Paul Nuttall last summer ruled himself

out of running for the Ukip leadership because he said he'd seen

the toll it had taken on Nigel Farage and he didn't want to inflict

that level of scrutiny and pressure 24 hours a day, seven days a week,

on him and his family. And of course, what happened, a few months

later, after one of Ukip's blasts of internal turbulence, there he was as

party leader and exactly what he predicted what happened has

happened. He's had a double barrel of scrutiny. The scrutiny associated

with being a party leader under scrutiny associated with being a

prominent candidate in a very prominent by-election. The

cumulative chipping away at him, around where he was living in Stoke,

around whether he was ever a professional football and no, he

wasn't, he was a youth player at Tranmere, whether he was ever the

recipient of a Ph.D., no, he never finished it, and that deeply

damaging and embarrassing row about Hillsborough and those claims and

quotes from him on his website that turns out were completely wrong, I

think was really striking about all of that is that even if he loses

tonight and who knows whether that will have been a contributory

factoring in him losing, those questions will remain in terms of

potentially chipping away at his credibility and authority as Ukip

leader. You do wonder whether he's going to have the appetite in the

medium term to carry on doing the job and whether there others in Ukip