05/03/2014 Y Sgwrs

Welcome back.

The international community was reminded of the 80s and the Cold War this week

The latest from the Ukraine and a history lesson tonight, on Y Sgwrs.

We will consider how close Russia and the Ukraine came to war this week.

The situation remains very fragile, of course.

And one of our most prominent historians will explain how the place names around us

provide clues about the Ukraine's turbulent history.

There have been close links between us and that part of the world across the centuries.

But first, let me introduce tonight's guests.

Vaughan Roderick is here as usual, of course.

We're also joined in the studio by Professor Gwynedd Parry,

who is a lecturer in law at Swansea University.

And Elin Jones, the Plaid Cymru AM for Ceredigion.

And the Labour MP, Nia Griffith, joins us from our Westminster studio.

A warm welcome to you all.

But first, to the crisis that the UK Foreign Secretary, William Hague,

has described as the most serious in Europe during the 21st century.

Russia has increased its influence significantly in the Crimea region,

which is part of the Ukraine.

At times during the last few days, it looked as though the tensions

between the two countries could turn into military confrontation.

Some say that could lead to disastrous consequences.

As we saw on Newyddion Naw earlier, our correspondent, Iolo ap Dafydd,

is in eastern Ukraine this evening in the city of Kharkiv.

Good evening, Iolo.

Good evening.

The starting point of this crisis began some time ago.

How have we reached this point?

First of all, the fact that Russia's soldiers

have moved into the Crimea region.

They now control that area.

This isn't a small piece of land.

It's larger than Wales.

It's in the southern part of the Ukraine

and of course there are important ports there for Russia's navy

and there are special military sites there.

But the history of the Crimea and its links to Russia and the Ukraine

goes back much further.

Different people have lived on the Crimea for centuries

and one group of people we don't hear much about these days

are the Tatar people.

They have been quiet because of the obvious confrontation

between the Ukrainians and the Russians.

There are other groups of people like Jews and Greeks

who have been living in that part of the world.

Interestingly, the Crimea region has only belonged to the Ukraine since 1954.

That's why most of the Russian speaking people

feel that the Crimea belongs to Russia.

And there are people in eastern Ukraine who also feel

that it belongs to the people who speak Russian

more than it does to the people who speak Ukrainian.

There was an emphasis on the diplomatic side in Paris today

and that is likely to continue.

Is there a feeling in the Ukraine tonight that the worst,

with regard to the violence at least, is over?

I think these diplomatic discussions have increased

during the last few days.

A lot of people had been waiting to hear

what President Putin had to say in Moscow yesterday.

The fact that he said he didn't feel there was a danger,

with his soldiers controlling the Crimea of course,

he doesn't feel there is a danger now.

The concern was that there would be a threat that Russia's soldiers

would enter eastern Ukraine.

That was certainly a big concern in Kiev yesterday.

The people here don't see it the same way.

There have been several protests and marches in these cities.

Around 70% of them consider Russian to be their first language

and they feel they have family connections and friends

on the Russian border, which is only about 20 miles away from here.

They don't see the Russians as an army and soldiers that are taking control.

They see them as friends who are protecting the interests

of the people who speak Russian.

But with regard to diplomacy, there have been discussions

in several capital cities across Europe.

What is ironic is that the people here say,

"They're not listening to us. They're not listening to our concerns."

They don't feel that they're part of this democratic process either.

A lot of them believe that the temporary government

in the Ukraine, in Kiev, is an illegal government.

How concerned are people in the Ukraine this evening?

The economy is weak and it's unclear how much of an influence Russia will have in the future.

Are they worried?

What's incredible is how much the Ukrainian economy,

not only in the east but across this huge country,

depends on the gas that comes from Russia.

The company that sells that gas is Gazprom.

At the beginning of this crisis, over three months ago now,

when President Yanukovych, who did win the majority of the votes in 2010, we have to remember that,

that's why people here think he should be the president,

at least until the next election,

and they are so dependant on that gas.

Now, that cheap gas has disappeared and all this political uncertainty

and all the disruption there has been in the main cities

have obviously affected the economy.

Wages are low here. Living costs are increasing.

The price of food is increasing.

Prices have increased since I first arrived here a few days ago.

It is putting pressure on Ukraine's economy,

it's putting pressure on the people,

and people are certainly concerned about that.

Iolo, thank you very much.

The Foreign Secretary has said this is the worst crisis

in the 21st century.

It's being compared to the Cold War.

Is that a fair comparison? Is it a similar situation?

I don't think it's fair to compare it to the Cold War.

But if we look at what Putin was trying to do

at the start of this crisis,

what he was trying to do was to create a block

that was larger than Russia.

Not a block as large as the Soviet Union had,

but one which would include the Ukraine, Armenia and a few other countries.

It's obvious to me, from what has happened over the last few days,

that that dream is now over.

In that sense, Putin has lost.

Even if he managed to occupy and keep Crimea

and maybe other regions of the Ukraine,

the idea that the whole of the Ukraine would come under Russian influence

and a member of this new block, has more or less disappeared

because of the response in the east to what Russia has done

and the response of the international community.

So it seems to me that Putin has made a mistake

and that at the moment, things are moving towards a direction

that countries in the West would approve of.

Nia Griffith in Westminster,

during today's Prime Minister's questions,

David Cameron and the leader of the opposition, Ed Miliband,

were singing from the same hymn sheet

and said economic and political sanctions would follow

as a result of Russia's attitude.

Do we in this country have to be careful,

considering how dependent we are in Britain on gas from Russia?

What's important is that we are sensitive to what's going on.

We have to create enough confidence so that we can have a discussion

between Russia and the Ukraine.

It's important to give Russia a message

Even if the Ukraine wants to improve its links with Europe,

the door is open to keep its connections with Russia as well.

Although they of course condemn what Russia is doing now

and the soldiers that have entered the country,

the fact is, the government in Kiev has give Russian speakers the confidence

that it is going to respect people who speak Russian.

What we need now is confidence and we need to calm the situation down

and create an opportunity for them to go forwards towards the elections,

as they have decided to do.

As someone who deals with the law,

when it comes to an international dispute,

it's often difficult to know who's right and who's wrong, isn't it?

Yes and the situation has deteriorated over the last few years

because all of the military intervention that has taken place

in different countries.

The UN charter has become very complicated.

We're not even sure what the meaning of sovereignty is any more.

What is territorial integrity?

What is the right to self-government?

These things have almost been redefined as a result of Kosovo,

Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq.

So we are living in a very different world.

And, of course, that's what Russia has done during the last week.

It has thrown some of the West's rhetoric back at the West,

when it comes to justifying military intervention around the world.

It's very interesting how that has been thrown back.

And of course, we know that the international situation

is very complicated because of all these developments.

And to expand on that, President Putin often thinks

the West is lying to him.

Are we in the West too willing to point the finger at him?

Yes, to some extent.

I think it's important that the international diplomatic processes

with Putin continue.

It is not similar to the situation in the Cold War

because Russia and Europe depend on each other more now

with regard to trade.

The trade of gas, for example, is the obvious element in the Ukraine

but Russia also trades with European countries.

So that business side is much more important now

and there are economic considerations, not only political ones.

This part of the world has a turbulent history

and the names of some places in Wales are proof of that,

following the Crimean War in the 1850s.

The victory of Britain and its allies over Russia was celebrated

by naming several streets, towns or locations after the area.

You have the Crimea Pass in Gwynedd

and the village of Sebastopol near Pontypool.

We asked the historian, John Davies,

to put this latest crisis into context

and to tell us more about the Welsh connections.

There are many streets, if you go to Swansea or Brynmawr or Llanelli,

there are names that commemorate the Crimean battles.

Balaclava, of course.

Inkerman, Alma. They all commemorate.

And we have to remember, in this patch of Cardiff,

most of the streets are named after the victories of the British Empire.

In the 50s of the 19th century,

when these big towns were growing quickly,

they were running out of names and they regularly heard about Balaclava

and Sebastopol and places like that.

There's a place outside Pontypool called Sebastopol.

And naturally, they used these names.

If you go back to the Crimean War,

it was an effort to control Russia's ability

to become the masters of the Black Sea.

And maybe they'd come down to the Mediterranean.

It strikes me as a very similar story

to the one we're faced with today.

Nothing changes in history, in my opinion.

If you go back to the Greek traditions, for example,

where was the golden fleece? It was in the Crimea.

Where did the Amazonians live?

It is said that they lived in that region as well.

So it has a central place in the mythological history of the world

and the Ukraine has played a central role in all kinds of things.

It's the largest country in Europe, by a long way.

It's much bigger than France, for example.

It's believed that was where Indo-European languages began,

including early versions of the Welsh language.

It's believed that is where they first developed.

That is where they mastered horse-back riding for the first time.

So you could say Europe was created by the Ukraine to some extent.

Of course, the Ukraine was destroyed by the Turkish and the Mongolians

and power moved more to the north, to the Moscow area and so on.

They have developed the idea in their heads

that they own the whole of the Ukraine.

The Ukraine won its independence in 1990

but I think they call it 'near abroad', so just over the border.

We're going to say what happens there.

We still have an element of that today.

They have rich Welsh connections.

One of the problems that has emerged recently is that eastern Ukraine

tends to be more pro-Russian than the west,

where influences from Poland and the Catholic Church

and things like that have been important

and that area is also closer to common market.

That's where the desire to get closer to Europe is strongest.

But it's much more Russian in the east

and a man from Merthyr Tydfil, Mr John Hughes,

built huge ironworks there.

He named the place after himself.

He brought in many, many Russians

and made what was the Ukrainian village Russian.

When it looks different, we can say

it is down to a man from Merthyr Tydfil.

So we have had connections with that part of the world for centuries.

A history lesson from John Davies.

Most people in the Crimea see themselves as Russians.

Their language and identity are an important part in this conflict.

Just as it does in several conflicts worldwide.

We have seen that in Wales as well.

In Wales, we can be proud of the fact

that we do not go down any violent paths

as we have political discussions about identity, language

and politics in general.

I think that seeing this in the Ukraine and in Crimea

reminds us of how fortunate we are in Wales

to have these discussions in a democratic way.

These boundaries are important in eastern Europe

in a way that they are not in western Europe.

The boundaries are more or less settled

and we do not have arguments about that.

In Scotland, they have the right to decide on their own future

and the same as Northern Ireland.

-Is the same true in the Crimea?

-Of course.

Yes, to some extent, but through a democratic vote

and internal discussions in the Ukraine, as it is at the moment,

and amongst the people who should decide

what their vote is to be for the next century.

The original foundation of this argument

was that some people in the Ukraine want to get closer to Russia

and others closer to Europe.

Are the same arguments going to come up in other European countries

over the next few years

as their relationship with the Soviet Union is questioned?

Of course. The situation could be very complex.

We have to remember how big the Ukraine is.

It is one of the biggest countries in Europe.

And it is important for them to find their own response

in their own country.

How can they live together?

How can they create enough respect between both groups?

Because there are so many different groups there

and it is not up to us to provide them with an answer,

but it is up to us to be open to help them

and to say to them, you can have connections with Europe

as long as you keep connections open with Russia.

That is important at the moment.

Because the world is getting smaller and smaller

and we do not have to say

that you have to choose between one or the other.

You have to keep connections with all kinds of people

and give everyone in the country the opportunity

to feel they can use their own language

and take part in their society.

We cannot give them an answer now

and tell them, you have to do a specific thing.

Let us move on.

Another week, and another announcement about devolution.

That's how things have felt over the past few months.

The latest chapter in Wales' constitutional soap opera

was the second part of the Silk Report.

A commission set up two and a half years ago

by the British government to evaluate

the way powers are shared between London and Cardiff Bay.

And the conclusions, Vaughan?

More powers for Cardiff.

In reality, Silk recommended

everything that the Welsh government wanted.

But we do not know what will happen about those recommendations.

I noticed yesterday in the Assembly

that the Silk Report was not discussed very much,

apart from the occasional reference.

Perhaps people realised that generally,

it is a matter for the manifestoes and the election

rather than for sudden legislation.

Are we ever going to see the work of this commission?

We know the first part is in the process

of devolving some powers relating to taxes.

There is a general election soon.

Is that going to stop the ideas being developed?

The timing is rather disappointing.

And perhaps there is not enough time to devolve these powers fully

to the Assembly during the present term of the Westminster government,

even if the political will was there to do it.

Because now, of course, if they do not take the opportunity

to take the Welsh measure under the financial side

to include some of the powers as well,

then it will all go back to the political party's manifestoes

for the next general election

and possibly some of it will be lost

and various parties will choose the policies they like and dislike.

And we will lose the comprehensive recommendation made by Silk.

And it should be regarded as a complete package

rather than as separate points.

One recommendation is the idea of devolving the police to Wales.

As an expert on law, people at home will be asking

how that would affect their day-to-day lives

if the Welsh government was responsible for policing.

I do not think we need to worry too much about the minor details

of what would happen if that came about.

What is important is that it is in the spirit of devolution.

If the other emergency services are devolved,

then it makes sense for the police,

as another branch of those services,

to also be coordinated.

That the policy is developed in the same place

and that everything is coordinated in a better way.

It is a matter of common sense.

Of course, Wales has its own particular needs as a rural country.

So we need to look at rural police officers,

as well as addressing the linguistic needs.

So without trying to foresee exactly what would change,

what is important is that we accept it in principle.

Because that is what devolution is all about.

The important thing is to accept it in principle to begin with.

More powers at the same time as people are asking

what has happened to our health system

and education since devolution.

People are saying that we have taken steps backwards in that respect.

Your colleague on the Labour bench, Ann Clwyd, made the same point today.

Why should we have more powers

considering the state of the health service in Wales.

How do you respond to that?

What is important is not the headlines,

but more of an explanation of the situation.

Because we have seen acts go to court to decide

whether Westminster or Cardiff should make the decisions.

It is important to me that they are discussing

telling Cardiff that Cardiff will be responsible,

unless Westminster are responsible.

It is going to be assumed that Cardiff Bay will be responsible.

And this will make it much clearer and it will really help.

When we talk about health, of course,

they have said we need to work together across the borders.

And this is also important.

Perhaps nobody has realised that

because they are talking about more powers.

But it is important to cooperate.

It is an anorak subject.

But changing the emphasis in the devolution model

so Wales imitates what's happening in Scotland and Northern Ireland,

as Nia said, cases have been taken to the High Court.

If we changed the model, perhaps that will not happen.

Changing the model is something the Labour Party in Westminster

and Cardiff Bay can agree on.

There are some different opinions about some of the recommendations.

But the truth of the matter is

if you look at the devolution process,

every development has essentially come

as the result of talks between a hung parliament.

Either in Cardiff Bay or Westminster.

It is important that the man who accepted the Silk Report for England

was Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister.

A lot is going to depend on

parliamentary mathematics in 2015-2016.

Does the report go far enough? Is it radical enough?

Why not recommend devolving broadcasting completely to Wales?

Why not completely devolve law?

No, it is not radical enough for Plaid Cymru

and some of the other Assembly members.

And they could have taken more significant steps on broadcasting

rather than taking small steps

with regard to the governing body of the BBC, for example.

But there have been some radical proposals

with regards to some things, such as water, for example.

That is very clear.

It's something Plaid Cymru has been pushing for for several years now.

So, no, it is not radical enough,

but it is a step in the right direction.

Thank you all for joining us tonight.

That is the end of our programme.

Thank you to our guests and to you for watching.

We won't be here next week,

but Bethan and Vaughan will be back in two weeks.

From all of us on the team, good night.