02/11/2011 Politics Scotland


02/11/2011

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Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland. Coming up on the

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programme: A major finance group says green energy companies should

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be cautious about investing due to uncertainty over the independence

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referendum. It's round two of the minimum price

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for alcohol debate. We will see if the arguments have moved on. And

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what will a Greek referendum on the euro bail-out mean for our economy?

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Here at Westminster that issue is very much on the minds of MPs as

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well. And how to pay for public sector pensions.

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First, a major finance group has urged extreme caution over

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investing in Scotland's renewable energy sector, partly because of

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the independence referendum. Citigroup said the process of

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constitutional change could create huge uncertainty. Here's our

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business correspondent David Henderson.

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He wants Scotland to be the Saudi Arabia of renewables, and this week

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he is taking that message to the Middle East. But will Alex

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Salmond's drive for independence scare off investors? The The SNP

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see wind, wave and tidal power as a vast untapped resource to be used

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to power Scotland and be exported to other parts of Europe. But that

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will require a huge amount of investment. Today a major finance

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group warned of the risks of investing in Scotland as it debates

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independence. The financial giant Citigroup said the independence

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referendum will create huge uncertainty and that renewable

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investors risk seeing their assets stranded in a newly independent

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Scotland. It's been seized upon by the SNP's opponents. When it comes

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to vital industries like green technology the combination of a

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green investment bank sponsored by the United Kingdom Government and

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the many natural advantages there are in Scotland, can actually make

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this a great industry for people in Scotland, but will only do that if

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we keep our country together. recent times we have seen �750

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million invested in renewable energy in Scotland and therefore,

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if investors were scared away that wouldn't have happened and they've

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all known of our plans for a referendum. The independence debate

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is creating tension between business and the SNP Government,

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but now the debate is entering stormy waters.

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I am joined by our political editor Brian Taylor to discuss this

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further. Good afternoon, Brian, thank you for joining me. How much

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weight does this analyst from Citigroup carry, do you think?

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not the weight of the individual analyst nor of the group, although

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they're a large one, it's the weight of the arguments perhaps

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relevant in this regard. Broadly, this Citigroup report is making two

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points. Firstly, that the referendum itself, the process per

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se carries with it uncertainty and that in their world equates with

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risk. They argue that post- independence should that come about

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there would not be sufficient consumer base in Scotland to

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support the subsidies they believe will continue to be required for

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renewables, against that Scottish Ministers here at Holyrood put two

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points. They say that there are companies flocking to Scotland

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right now to invest in renewables at a time when they know exactly

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that there's going to be a referendum. Secondly, they believe

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that in the new energy market across Europe, not just across the

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UK, but Europe, there will be a continuing requirement, a

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continuing demand, if you like, for renewables, and that of itself will

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generate funds that will be required to continue that energy

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development. This line of uncertainty is an emerging theme

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from big business, the CBI mentioned it in September, as well.

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How damaging is it do you think for the Scottish Government hearing

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about these claims? It's difficult, because it obliges them again to

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defend the timing of the referendum, they're putting back for three or

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four years, because they said they promised to do in the second half

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of the parliament, also because in strategic terms they believe now

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with economic uncertainty would not be a reasonable time for them to go

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ahead with suggesting independence to the people of Scotland. So it

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poses a challenge to Ministers, but as you say they've heard it before,

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it's not one they haven't encountered previously. So, Alex

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Salmond this morning on the radio was very robust in criticising the

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approach taken by the report and also Ministers here at Holyrood are

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doing exactly that. A tricky this one for the opposition parties,

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particularly when it comes to renewables I suppose, they don't

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want to talk Scotland down? They don't. On the one hand we have a

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statement from Labour which they're pointing out the sal kwrepbt point

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in the report about the uncertainty of the timing of the referendum and

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uncertainty of the process itself. You also have the situation, they

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don't want to go too far, if they get overeager in pursuing the

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campaign against independence it might seem as if they're talking

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Scotland down to some extent with regard to the energy pros --

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prospects of the country. The temptation to seize upon this

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report for the opposition will be great but equally we have Scottish

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Ministers against that adamant on the points that companies are

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already coming here, already investing as Alex Alex Salmond put

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it, you don't need to listen to one broadcaster, you can read the book.

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Secondly, the belief in the longer- term Scotland's marine renewables

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particularly would be a huge contribution to European energy

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needs. It's a question of confidence, are you optimistic or

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pessimistic about Scotland's energy pros text -- prospects?

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Thank you very much. With me for the duration of this

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afternoon's programme is Lorraine Davidson of The Times. Good

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afternoon, thank you for joining me. It's a tricky one this for assix --

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Alex Salmond, we are hearing from business about this uncertainty.

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It's not helpful for the sector or the Government. Alex Salmond has

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had this pressure from op sis parties -- opposition parties. That

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line of attack hasn't really had great reasonance among the public.

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People are not marching to squares around Scotland saying give us our

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referendum now. Part of the reason it hasn't taken off is because you

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haven't had big business coming in and saying we are not sure about

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coming to Scotland, unless you guys know what you are doing. But it's

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the age-old problem, we know businesses don't like uncertainty.

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The SNP have been dealing with this issue nor for 20 years in the run-

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up to devolution, I think they did badly in the 99 election partly

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because of the idea of uncertainty and business being very hostile.

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Business in Scotland is not now hos till, they're -- hostile. At the

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end of the day they will be able to say businesses don't like

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uncertainty, we accept that, but at the end of the day they're

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pragmatic and if Scotland has this vibrant sector, this untapped great

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resource in tidal and wind energy, quarter of what's around in the

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whole of Europe, then businesses will come in. But you can probably

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expect to see Citigroup invited around faster than the Bishop of

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Paisley was. Now, we are in the middle of

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National Adoption Week, the charity Barnardo's Scotland is launching a

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national adoption service saying there is a need to increase and

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speed up adoptions where it's in the best interests of the child.

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Their call will be echoed in Holyrood this afternoon during a

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Scottish Government debate on the issue. Stephanie Stone from

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Barnardo's Scotland is here now. Thank you very much for joining me.

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What is it you want to hear from the Scottish Government this

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afternoon on their adoption strategy? We hope that they will be

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bringing in measures that will minimise the time scales it takes

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for young children in particular to be adopted. At the moment we have a

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number of young children, hundreds of young children in the care

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system, maybe of -- many of them under five who need to be adopted.

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Delaying these khaeurpb's lives is -- children's lives is of crucial

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importance. We know the emotional damage that delay means to these

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children and we need ways of hastening the processes. Adoption

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is not just about social work processes, it's about the court

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system and it's about the children's hearing system. So there

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needs to be something done that ensures that once a child enters

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the process that there are time- scales adhered to and the process

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happens quickly for them. It's a difficult balance to strike, you

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want to hasten it but you don't want to rush it because such a

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momentous decision for that child? Absolutely, it's a huge decision

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for the child and there has to be clear evidence that says that a

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parent is not going to be able to resume the care of that child

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safely before these decisions are made. But, unfortunately, for so

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many of our parents they have such entrenched problems that it will

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take them some years to get over these difficulties, particularly if

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they're around the areas of mental health, or substance misuse and for

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very young children their lives are on hold whilst parents address

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these problems. So it's a very difficult decision for social

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workers to make. But we have to find ways of once these decisions

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have been made of pursuing adoption much more quickly. Thank you very

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much. Stay with us, we are going to go live to the chamber at Holyrood

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and hear what Angela Constand -- Constance the Minister has to say.

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As you say, the Minister is at the moment on her feet, she's

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acknowledged there are still delays in the adoption system and has said

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that a multiagency approach is needed where everyone is working

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together. Labour, however, want to see a definitive, definite

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timetable on improvements, on what's for many a emotive and at

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times harrowing issue. Let's cross now live to the chamber.

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It could be Taylored to meet the individual needs of a child and

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provide them with security, stability and greater

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predictability in their lives. The Scottish Government brought this

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legislation into effect in 2009 and along with this we introduced

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legislation which provided recognition for kinship carers for

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the first time. This also can provide stability, security and

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predict kwrabgt in --ability in the lives and experiences of looked

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after children and parliament has come together to debate the role

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and support the kinship carers receive and we discussed the work

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that the Scottish Government is involved in to secure the access to

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benefits and support for these carers. Yes. The parliament

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welcomed the steps taken by the Government to ensure that kinship

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carers received the same benefits as foster carers, but that hasn't

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been implemented throughout Scotland. What steps will she take

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to make sure that there's not a postcode lottery in support and

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financial support for kinship carers? As Miss Grant is aware

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local authorities are best placed to make decisions about financial

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support, both for kinship carers and children at that local level. I

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think that's a very important part of local democracy that we should

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support and cherish. I think we also have to acknowledge that

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kinship care is distinct from foster care and that kinship care

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is very much a fundamental, a type of family care that families have

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done for generations and I am sure that we can all look at the history

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of our own families and see examples of kinship care. Now this

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Government has done more than anyone else to support kinship

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carers and we will continue to engage with the Westminster

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Government constructively, particularly on the issue of

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welfare reform. I suppose no matter where we stand on these issues

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politically, I do think we all agree that kinship care is another

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important option to provide permanent care for our children and

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that's made possible by the looked after children regulations and

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permanence orders, both of which are unique to Scotland. I do very

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much cherish this consensus that we have for our looked after children

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and I won't be using our most vulnerable children as a political

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football. But what I would say is that if I need to ruffle a few

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feathers to make progress for our looked after children, I will,

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because I think what this Government is about in partnership

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is that we have to support and challenge each other, both within

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this parliament and both at local and national Government and, of

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course, within the voluntary sector. The children looked after

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statistics shows that whilst fewer children are being received into

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care, they are coming into care younger and are being looked after

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for much longer. While aspects of this are given a clear sign that we

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are getting it right for more of our young people, in the sense that

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those who are at risk are being identified younger and earlier, but

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what we now need to focus on is the overall care journey and the length

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of time that journey takes. And we all recognise I am sure that formal

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attainment and securing improvements in a child's life

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chances is only possible with the secure attachments that safe,

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stable, nurturing home environment can support. Appropriate, timely

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and child-centred care planning will ensure that these placements

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are achieved. However, we will all have examples of where intervention

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could have happened earlier. This was highlighted in the care and and

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permanence planning for looked after children report and this

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report was published on 20th June 2011 by the Scottish childrens

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report administration. The report found children are still waiting

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for a significant period of time in a system that should be working

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with their needs and and rights at the centre. Two years may not seem

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long for adults, but it is an eternity for children and some may

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say that this time-skaeubl is -- scale is justifiable but it it

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never be acceptable for a child to be more than ten years for a

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permanent home - nor can it be acceptable for the majority of

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children as is the case in this report, to have waited more than

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four years. I will take the point. I mow, Minister, you are aware I

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adopted a daughter and have some knowledge of this, but I wonder if

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you would agree with me that time is still required in these issues,

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particularly when it comes to home assessments and the suitability of

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those who are going to adopt a child. That time should not be cut

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in any way. We must be very, very careful in how we deal with those

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who are going to benefit from having a child that is not a birth

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child, so that the time - I do say that the bureaucracy thereafter

:15:58.:16:08.
:16:08.:16:08.

then we should take side to that, Pather son will agree that we can

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both achieve thorough and timely assessments. While I can imagine

:16:15.:16:20.

where parents often contest or birth parents often contest an

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adoption in court, I can see how an adoption would take for example two

:16:25.:16:31.

years. But in terms of other examples, other options to achieve

:16:31.:16:35.

parents for children, whether it is foster carers, a parents' order.

:16:35.:16:39.

That does not need to take two years. I think across the system we

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have to remember that time is off the essence. Our children grow and

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develop from the day that they are born. At the end of the day they

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only have one childhood. The report is very important and I

:16:54.:16:58.

published the Scottish Government's response to the report on 21 June

:16:58.:17:02.

outlining our plans to address the issues raised. Our aim is nothing

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less than a radical shift? Care planning towards fewer placements

:17:06.:17:09.

for children, early permanence decisions for every child, and a

:17:09.:17:17.

system that puts the child at the very centre. And this offers

:17:17.:17:23.

children in care the best possible chance for securing an adoptive or

:17:23.:17:26.

permanent placement. Our response lays the building blocks towards a

:17:26.:17:31.

goal that sees the care system deliver every child a safe, stable

:17:31.:17:34.

and enoughing home. A child's journey through care starts with an

:17:34.:17:38.

assessment of the parents' capacity to provide the consistent care that

:17:38.:17:42.

a child needs to attain their potential. Therefore, we recognise

:17:42.:17:47.

the need for more robust assessment tools to determine parental

:17:47.:17:50.

capacity and to identify the support that parents need in order

:17:50.:17:55.

to provide the care for the child. Through the work supported by the

:17:56.:17:58.

early years framework we are committed to identifying children

:17:58.:18:03.

at risk and taking the steps to prevent that risk materialising. We

:18:03.:18:07.

are committed to taking effective action to help parents, families

:18:07.:18:11.

and communities to develop their own solutions using accessible

:18:11.:18:15.

high-quality public services. Whether that's parenting classes,

:18:15.:18:18.

therapeutic support for parents experiencing drug and alcohol

:18:18.:18:22.

problems, and support with health and disability issues as opposed to

:18:22.:18:29.

name but a few. We want to support every child in their whole journey

:18:29.:18:32.

through care, the transition they experience and beyond. We need to

:18:32.:18:36.

ensure that appropriate decisions are made quickly and that support

:18:36.:18:42.

is in place to provide permanent care for children, who cannot live

:18:42.:18:48.

with their birth parents. Our response looks to highlight and

:18:48.:18:53.

share good practice in these areas. We plan to make use of our new

:18:53.:18:56.

centre for excellence for looked after children, which launched in

:18:56.:19:00.

September. We are asking the centre to work collaboratively with our

:19:00.:19:05.

partners to improve the experiences in the lives of all looked after

:19:05.:19:08.

children, their families and care leavers. Will it work to ensure

:19:09.:19:13.

that all those involved in the care of looked after children have the

:19:13.:19:16.

appropriate skills, knowledge and support, and this any decisions

:19:16.:19:20.

about looked after children are well evidenced and always have the

:19:20.:19:24.

child's welfare and rights at is paramount consideration.

:19:24.:19:27.

This Government places great importance on working in

:19:27.:19:30.

partnership in order to deliver our ambitions for Scotland's children.

:19:30.:19:36.

And we are in a period of engagement with key stakeholders

:19:36.:19:39.

about how to translate the key areas of work into specific

:19:39.:19:43.

activities. I have written to local authorities seeking their

:19:43.:19:46.

involvement in this process. The Scottish Government started the

:19:46.:19:50.

work to create a more responsive system. Very already mentioned the

:19:50.:19:55.

centre for excellence, which will be instrumental in the future work

:19:55.:20:00.

being undertaken. But we have also created Scotland's first national

:20:00.:20:03.

adoption register, which is already providing greater opportunities for

:20:03.:20:09.

placing children in stable and permanent families. I I urge local

:20:09.:20:12.

authorities to make a commitment to use the national register by the

:20:12.:20:17.

ends of this year. As corporate parents I would ask each one of us

:20:17.:20:22.

to challenge local authorities, health service, organisations and

:20:22.:20:25.

our own constituencies to engage with this work being undertaken.

:20:25.:20:29.

Every organisation involved in the lives of looked after children will

:20:29.:20:32.

have examples of practice which works to promote the wellbeing of

:20:32.:20:37.

the children it serves. Each of hawse a duty to help, identify and

:20:37.:20:42.

promote good practice as widely as possible. I do also intend to

:20:42.:20:45.

increase the pace of change. I will be asking all local authorities to

:20:46.:20:51.

provide me with their adoption services plans by April 2012. And I

:20:51.:20:54.

will expect to see an bottom Britishous approach and evidence

:20:54.:20:58.

that every local authority has clear plans to raise the numbers of

:20:59.:21:02.

young people afforded permanence or adoption.

:21:03.:21:10.

We are after all... One of the issues facing minority communities

:21:10.:21:17.

in particular visible mirnt communities is the fact that --

:21:17.:21:21.

minority communities is that adoptions are not taking place in

:21:21.:21:24.

their own communities. Children are being denied those opportunities.

:21:24.:21:31.

They lose language and culture and a religious background. I wonder if

:21:31.:21:36.

you can instruct local authorities to try to marry these up by traig

:21:36.:21:39.

to make the adoption system easier and better understood by the

:21:39.:21:44.

minority communities, so they can play a fuller role in the

:21:44.:21:47.

community? I thank the member for that point. That's an example of

:21:47.:21:53.

the type of work that we would want to see evident in the adoption and

:21:53.:21:57.

permanence plans that local authorities will have to provide me

:21:57.:22:03.

by 2012. I will be vigilant to the point that he makes.

:22:03.:22:08.

Finally, Presiding Officer, I want to say that we are all as corporate

:22:08.:22:12.

parents responsible for ensuring that the care system is child-

:22:12.:22:17.

centred and provides appropriate and timely decisions and secures

:22:17.:22:20.

permanent placements as soon as possible. And that we owe it to

:22:20.:22:23.

looked after children to ensure that they have access to the

:22:23.:22:27.

opportunities that this can provide. I move the motion in my name.

:22:27.:22:34.

APPLAUSE Angela Constance, the Minister. And

:22:34.:22:36.

Stephanie Stone from Barnardo's Scotland is still here with us.

:22:36.:22:45.

She's been listening to that statement. They were talking about

:22:45.:22:49.

taking a scythe to bureaucracy. Did did Minister ace words mean much to

:22:49.:22:54.

you? Did you get much of a commitment to taking that scythe to

:22:54.:22:58.

bureaucracy? Obviously it is encouraging that they are going to

:22:58.:23:02.

ask for adoption plans. Hopefully local authorities will say how they

:23:03.:23:06.

are managing their attitude to adoption and how they are

:23:06.:23:11.

evidencing what they are doing. In terms of the assessment of adoptive

:23:11.:23:16.

pcts I think the Minister said, and I agree with her, that rigorous

:23:16.:23:20.

assessment and the length of time it takes are not necessarily one

:23:20.:23:26.

and the same thing. So assessments can be rigorous and they can be

:23:26.:23:29.

very well evidenced without necessarily taking the length of

:23:29.:23:32.

time that they have been taking. There is the other aspect, of

:23:33.:23:38.

course, of the length of time it takes to get children through the

:23:38.:23:43.

courts system. The two things go hand in hand. One didn't start

:23:43.:23:48.

after the other stops. We need to be working concurrently so that

:23:48.:23:54.

Children's Plans are processed quickly at the same time as we are

:23:54.:23:57.

assessing is families, taking on the task of adoption. I want to

:23:57.:24:00.

pick up on the dialogue between the Scottish Government and the local

:24:00.:24:05.

authorities. What's happening at the moment? Is the Scottish

:24:05.:24:09.

Government keeping a close enough eye on local authorities? We were

:24:09.:24:12.

hearing from David Cameron this week, in England he was naming and

:24:12.:24:16.

shaming local authorities? I think the system? Scotland is slightly

:24:16.:24:18.

different. Yes the Government obviously looks at the figures and

:24:19.:24:22.

is interested in them and will be taking note where they are not

:24:22.:24:26.

happy, but it's a different system. I don't think you can transfer

:24:26.:24:29.

necessarily the style of one to the style of the other.

:24:29.:24:33.

There's a big change with the national adoption register, I take

:24:33.:24:37.

it that's just started, so it is maybe difficult to assess its

:24:37.:24:41.

success so far. The national adoption register is welcomed by

:24:41.:24:47.

everybody in the adoption field in Scotland. And in fact it's one of

:24:47.:24:52.

the reasons Barnardo's moved back into adoption. Having that register

:24:52.:24:57.

enables speedy linking of families available for adoption with the

:24:57.:25:02.

children who are looking for adoptive families. To the best of

:25:02.:25:05.

my knowledge the register is doing well. There are already a number of

:25:05.:25:10.

links they are pursuing. I'm not aware if matches have taken place

:25:10.:25:14.

yet but I do understand there's a number of links that are being

:25:14.:25:17.

pursued. The Minister mentioned the centre of excellence. Can you tell

:25:17.:25:22.

us more about that, and is your charity involved in that? Yes, some

:25:22.:25:27.

people from our charity are on the steering group. The centre of

:25:27.:25:31.

excellence is very much welcomed as the Minister said. We are looking

:25:31.:25:36.

for them to assist local authorities and organisations like

:25:36.:25:40.

ourselves in evidencing how we move forward with the best plans for

:25:40.:25:44.

children. Why do you think adoption is

:25:44.:25:47.

hitting the headlines just now? We are hearing from the Prime Minister,

:25:47.:25:50.

we have a statement in Parliament today. It is National Adoption Week,

:25:51.:25:56.

but it is certainly an issue that's raised, that is going up the

:25:56.:26:00.

political agenda, compares to years past? It is. I think it is because

:26:00.:26:04.

we are so much more aware of the numbers of children who've remained

:26:04.:26:09.

in care for an unhealthy length of time. These children have remained

:26:09.:26:13.

in the care system. They are part of the reason why the numbers of

:26:13.:26:17.

looked after children has increased. These children weren't placed for

:26:17.:26:21.

adoption many years ago when some of them should have been. This has

:26:21.:26:25.

become an urgent issue. We know the emotional damage that's inflicted

:26:25.:26:29.

on these children because they are not living in homes where they've

:26:29.:26:34.

been claimed. I think people realise that this has to change.

:26:34.:26:39.

Stephanie Stone from Barnardo's Scotland, thank you.

:26:39.:26:42.

You're watching Politics Scotland from the BBC. Still to come on the

:26:42.:26:49.

programme: It is not a magic bullet solution but it's a crucial part.

:26:49.:26:54.

It is the missing piece of the jigsaw in Scotland. As the Scottish

:26:54.:26:56.

Government relaunches plans to tackle problem drinking, political

:26:56.:27:03.

opponents brew up challenges to minimum alcohol pricing.

:27:03.:27:06.

The UK Government has revised its plans to change public sector

:27:06.:27:09.

pensions to try to avert strike action at the end of this month.

:27:09.:27:11.

David Cameron was asked about that during Prime Minister's Questions,

:27:11.:27:15.

and he was also asked about the latest on the euro crisis. Here's a

:27:15.:27:20.

flavour of what happened. Speaker, with the average 60-year-

:27:20.:27:25.

old living ten years longer than in the 1970s public sector pension

:27:26.:27:30.

reform is essential. Will the Prime Minister ensure that reform is fair

:27:30.:27:33.

for my constituents, in terms of the taxpayer, and public sector

:27:33.:27:37.

workers? My honourable friend makes an important point and the Chief

:27:37.:27:40.

Secretary to the Treasury will be making a full statement to the

:27:40.:27:43.

House. It does seem to be absolutely vital that we do

:27:43.:27:48.

something that's fair to taxpayers and to public sector workers. The

:27:48.:27:53.

costs of our public sector pensions system is up by a third in the last

:27:53.:27:56.

decade. It isn't fair to go on as we are, but the new arrangements

:27:56.:28:00.

must be fair to people who work hard in the public sector and on

:28:00.:28:04.

whom we are all relying. Can I tell the House that low and middle

:28:04.:28:08.

income earners will see getting more from their public sector

:28:08.:28:12.

pensions. Everyone will keep what they've built up so far. Anyone

:28:12.:28:16.

within ten years of retirement will see no change in their pension

:28:16.:28:21.

arrangements. At the end of this people in the public sector will

:28:21.:28:25.

actually still get far better pensions than people in the private

:28:25.:28:29.

sector. It is time the party opposite was clear they do not

:28:29.:28:32.

support the strikes later this month.

:28:32.:28:40.

THE SPEAKER: Ed Miliband. Mr Speaker, does the Prime Minister

:28:40.:28:46.

believe that grove of 0.5% over the last year and unemployment at a 17

:28:46.:28:52.

year high point to the success or failure of his economic plan?

:28:52.:28:55.

Obviously everybody wants the British economy to grow faster.

:28:55.:29:02.

That's what everybody wants. But I have to, I have to, very to say to

:29:02.:29:05.

the honourable gentleman, yesterday's figure of 0.5%, which

:29:05.:29:10.

was better than many people expected, isn't it noticeable that

:29:10.:29:19.

he cannot even bring himself to welcome news like that?

:29:19.:29:23.

The key issue I think we value to address is this. There is a global

:29:23.:29:28.

storm in the world economy today, and it is in our interest to help

:29:28.:29:32.

others confront that global storm, but we have also got to keep the

:29:32.:29:36.

British economy safe. We won't keep it safe if we add to our deficit,

:29:36.:29:39.

add to our debt and put interest rates at risk.

:29:39.:29:44.

THE SPEAKER: Ed Miliband. Speaker, first he blamed the Labour

:29:44.:29:53.

Government, then he... First he blamed the Labour Government, then

:29:53.:29:57.

he blamed Europe. Yesterday he was apparently blaming his Cabinet

:29:57.:30:00.

colleagues for the lack of growth in our economy. The truth about

:30:00.:30:04.

this Prime Minister is when things go wrong it is never anything to do

:30:04.:30:09.

with him. People in my constituency in north Belfast and right across

:30:09.:30:15.

the country are desperately worried about the increasing costs of gas,

:30:15.:30:21.

electricity, home heatling oil -- home heating oil. What will the

:30:21.:30:25.

Prime Minister do to help people in this situation? And will he reverse

:30:25.:30:29.

the cuts to winter fuel allowance, which hits senior citizens? It is

:30:29.:30:33.

not good enough surely to say he's following the plans of the

:30:33.:30:35.

opposition. He's done so many things differently from the

:30:35.:30:39.

opposition, why isn't he going to do something different with winter

:30:39.:30:47.

We have kept the plans set out by the last Government. On the cold

:30:47.:30:50.

weather payments we have actually taken the increase in cold weather

:30:50.:30:54.

payments that was meant forever one year and maintained that so if

:30:55.:30:57.

there is a phrrly cold winter people will be getting that help.

:30:57.:31:01.

The other steps is making sure that energy companies give people proper

:31:01.:31:04.

information about the lowest tariffs they can get and we have

:31:04.:31:07.

proper reform of the energy market. Again something that the party

:31:07.:31:12.

opposite has now suddenly started to talk about but did nothing about

:31:12.:31:15.

in Government. When the Prime Minister goes to G20 meeting over

:31:15.:31:19.

the next couple of days, will he try and persuade his colleagues of

:31:19.:31:23.

the urgency of coming up with some detail on the eurozone settlement

:31:23.:31:26.

reached last week. It's not at all clear how Greece is going to get

:31:26.:31:30.

out of the difficulties, even if this referendum passes. European

:31:30.:31:34.

banks will need shoring up well before next summer and as for the

:31:34.:31:38.

new rescue fund which may be needed sooner than we think, it doesn't

:31:38.:31:42.

actually exist. Will he not accept the G20 now now needs to show the

:31:42.:31:48.

same urgency and sense of of purpose two years ago when it met

:31:48.:31:51.

in London. Otherwise governments are going to be condemned to being

:31:51.:31:56.

dragged along in their weight. is right in what he says about the

:31:56.:32:00.

urgency of this meeting and the necessity of its agenda. I think

:32:00.:32:03.

some progress was made at the European Council meeting a week ago

:32:03.:32:07.

where actually for the first time they did accept a proper write down

:32:07.:32:11.

of Greek debt which has to be part of the solution. Also a proper

:32:12.:32:15.

recapitalisation of Europe's banks, done to a credible test, rather

:32:15.:32:19.

than the incredible test we have had in months gone by. And the

:32:19.:32:23.

final element which he refers to rightly, which needs to have more

:32:23.:32:26.

detail added and more substance added, and that is to make sure

:32:26.:32:30.

there is a proper firewall to stop contagion in the eurozone. The need

:32:30.:32:35.

has got even greater. Of course we can't involve ourselves in Greek

:32:35.:32:38.

domestic politics but it's become even more urgent to put meat on the

:32:38.:32:42.

bones of these plans to show that we are removing one of the key

:32:42.:32:45.

obstacles to tphroeble growth -- global growth, which is the failure

:32:45.:32:49.

to provide a proper plan to deal with problems in the eurozone.

:32:49.:32:52.

will be back to Westminster in a few moments. First, Scotland has

:32:52.:32:55.

taken a major step towards becoming the first country in Europe to

:32:55.:32:58.

introduce a minimum price for alcohol. The Scottish Government

:32:58.:33:02.

has launched its plans for a vote on the issue during this

:33:02.:33:05.

parliamentary session. It was defeated last time, but here's a

:33:05.:33:10.

flavour of the arguments for and against in this second round.

:33:10.:33:14.

Moderate and responsible drinkers will not be affected by minimum

:33:14.:33:18.

pricing, partly because they don't drink very much but also because

:33:18.:33:22.

the products they tend to drink are not those that will be affect.

:33:22.:33:25.

Minimum pricing is about targeting the very cheap, very strong

:33:25.:33:30.

products that are doing so much damage to our communities. The

:33:30.:33:33.

relationship between the price of alcohol and the consumption of

:33:33.:33:37.

alcohol is well known. We see it emerging evidence from Canada that

:33:38.:33:41.

a minimum price reduces consumption, so it's not a magic bullet solution,

:33:42.:33:45.

we never said it is, but it's a crucial part of an overall approach

:33:45.:33:48.

and right now it's the missing piece of the jigsaw in Scotland.

:33:48.:33:52.

Our view it won't tackle the people this is aimed at. For example, it

:33:52.:33:56.

won't have impact on people who drink in pubs, because the price is

:33:56.:34:00.

unlike throeu reach that level. Also, for the small amount of extra

:34:00.:34:05.

money those people are likely to carry on spending anyway. It will

:34:05.:34:08.

penalise responsible families who the might want to share a bottle of

:34:08.:34:14.

wine at home, they might have to pay more. Let's go to the Scottish

:34:14.:34:20.

parliament garden lobby now, I am joined by Jim Eadie from the SNP

:34:20.:34:24.

and Dr Richard Simpson from Labour. We have seen last time and now time

:34:24.:34:27.

the overwhelming evidence in favour of a minimum price for alcohol. We

:34:27.:34:32.

have been hearing Labour talk about their problems during the Scottish

:34:32.:34:35.

election campaign, perhaps they should have got on board with

:34:35.:34:38.

backing minimum pricing for alcohol, why in this second round are you

:34:38.:34:42.

not supporting it? First of all, the word overwhelming isn't correct.

:34:42.:34:46.

There's only one study and that is the Sheffield study which is a

:34:46.:34:49.

modelling study and there is a little evidence from Canada in

:34:49.:34:52.

terms of the social responsibility pricing. And the Scottish police

:34:52.:34:56.

forces and the Chief Medical Officer for for Scotland. That's

:34:56.:34:59.

not evidence, that is opinion. There is a lot of opinion out there

:34:59.:35:02.

in favour of it, I accept that. But the fact remains that it is a

:35:02.:35:09.

single modelling study, that's only been tried once and that's in an

:35:09.:35:13.

Aboriginal community in us a and it was a particular situation that

:35:13.:35:16.

wasn't apply to Scotland -- Australia. It's an opinion, but

:35:17.:35:20.

it's gathered from their own frontline evidence, isn't it?

:35:20.:35:23.

it's not gathered from their own frontline evidence because they

:35:23.:35:26.

don't know about minimum pricing. Many people are actually

:35:26.:35:30.

understandably very concerned about alcohol, as is the Labour Party,

:35:31.:35:35.

they also set, as we do, that price and sraeupblt are -- availability

:35:35.:35:39.

are major issues, but the problem with minimum pricing is first of

:35:39.:35:41.

all there is a question of its legality, will the courts strike it

:35:41.:35:49.

down? And the UK Minister skapb Milton has said the advise she

:35:49.:35:54.

received that will happen. It will give �140 million windfall to

:35:54.:35:57.

supermarkets. It will not deal with binge drinking and the Sheffield

:35:57.:36:02.

group have admitted that. Fourthly, it will not tackle heavy drinking

:36:02.:36:06.

in the 18-24-year-old, where even the doctors have grave concerns

:36:06.:36:12.

about the substantial increase. The Sheffield study show it is will

:36:12.:36:14.

minimally affect that group. That's some of the reasons. There are many

:36:14.:36:21.

more. I will give you one more, and that is that it will only affect

:36:21.:36:28.

the poorest 30%. The least well-off. The top 70% of earners will not be

:36:28.:36:32.

affected at all and therefore hazardous drinking which is much

:36:32.:36:36.

more in that particular group, that's the richer people drink more,

:36:36.:36:41.

they will not be affected. We need a cultural change. Let's turn to

:36:41.:36:44.

Jim Eadie, what do you think of that, there is a raft of arguments

:36:45.:36:49.

against that Dr Simpson has put forward and particularly on the

:36:49.:36:52.

point about this opinion as opposed to evidence coming from the Chief

:36:52.:36:56.

Constables, for example? Can I deal with that. It will not do for

:36:56.:36:59.

Richard Simpson to talk about the problem but to do nothing about it.

:36:59.:37:04.

The Scottish Government is determined to listen to what the

:37:04.:37:07.

healthcare professionals on the ground, people who work in GP

:37:07.:37:11.

practices, in our health centres, the people who know the reality of

:37:11.:37:15.

alcohol misuse in our accident and emergency departments. What they

:37:15.:37:18.

tell us is they want the Government to do this, they want to us

:37:18.:37:22.

introduce minimum pricing and that is why we are determined to tackle

:37:22.:37:25.

this, this time around. Now, if you consider the point that was made

:37:25.:37:28.

about teenager drinkers t cannot be right that in Scotland today a

:37:28.:37:32.

young person, a teenager, can buy enough alcohol to kill themselves

:37:32.:37:37.

for �5 or less. This Government is determined to tackle that. We will

:37:37.:37:43.

Bring It On Home forward -- we will bring forward minimum pricing. It's

:37:43.:37:47.

time, frankly, that you listen to them, instead of lecturing them

:37:47.:37:51.

about what they should be saying on this subject. What about that, Dr

:37:51.:37:58.

Simpson? Well, as usual, they try to compound evidence out of opinion

:37:58.:38:02.

and that is not correct. I will say this, to suggest that we do not

:38:02.:38:06.

want to take this issue seriously is rubbish. I was the deputy

:38:06.:38:09.

justice Minister that commenced the process that led to the licensing

:38:09.:38:14.

bill which has not been fully operational until 2009 and has

:38:14.:38:17.

already demonstrating a reduction in deaths, so to say we are not

:38:17.:38:20.

taking this seriously is rubbish. I will tell you the other thing, and

:38:20.:38:24.

that is that the public out there and the professionals indeed want

:38:24.:38:28.

the parties to have a discussion about all possible measures. What

:38:28.:38:33.

the Government has done with this minimum unit Bill is to introduce a

:38:33.:38:38.

Bill that's so narrow it will not allow any debate, discussion, it it

:38:38.:38:42.

treats it as a magic bullet. That's not the case. If he can assure me

:38:42.:38:47.

today that Bill can be amended, I will be very, very happy but I tell

:38:47.:38:52.

you... Take him up on that point. He is sticking his head in the sand.

:38:52.:38:57.

The Government has always been willing to discuss with other

:38:57.:39:01.

parties. We will look positively at any constructive proposals that are

:39:01.:39:04.

brought forward, provided they are evidence. But the reality is, and

:39:04.:39:07.

you cannot escape this, Richard, that the healthcare professionals

:39:07.:39:10.

on the ground want this to happen. The Chief Medical Officer for

:39:10.:39:13.

England and for Wales and for Northern Ireland and for Scotland

:39:14.:39:17.

wishes this to happen. The directors of public health in every

:39:17.:39:21.

health board in Scotland say they need minimum pricing if we are to

:39:21.:39:23.

rebalance Scotland's damaging relationship with alcohol. This

:39:23.:39:27.

Government is determined to tackle the problem and if the other

:39:27.:39:30.

parties want to join us in their battle we are absolutely prepared

:39:30.:39:36.

to work with them to achieve that. Dr Simpson, one more point about

:39:36.:39:39.

you mentioning that Anne Milton said it may be illegal, in this

:39:39.:39:43.

case as some people have said is the law not an ass in this case and

:39:43.:39:48.

we could actually try and put minute phoupl pricing -- minimum

:39:48.:39:51.

pricing forward and it could be challenged by the European Union

:39:51.:39:55.

but let's go ahead and do it? it's khaplged by the European --

:39:55.:40:00.

challenged by the European Union it will be be -- challenged. We are

:40:00.:40:03.

part of Europe, the law is what it is. I will say if Jim Eadie is

:40:03.:40:08.

saying to me today that Bill that they have just produced is capable

:40:08.:40:11.

of amendment, with the substantial number of proposals which Labour

:40:11.:40:15.

has come forward with, then I will be much happier. But tkoeu not

:40:15.:40:19.

believe that is the case. We will find that the amendments we were

:40:19.:40:23.

proposing will be ruled out. The only recourse for the Labour Party

:40:23.:40:26.

will be to actually go for a private members Bill in order to

:40:26.:40:29.

address some of the problems that we accept are there and can be

:40:29.:40:34.

addressed and should be addressed, but by a raft of other measures.

:40:34.:40:38.

Minimum unit pricing penalises the least well-off in our communities.

:40:38.:40:43.

It does not address the culture. Take up on that point, Jim Eadie.

:40:43.:40:46.

They do have concerns about this single measure. The evidence

:40:46.:40:49.

produced by the Sheffield model study, and which will be rerun

:40:49.:40:53.

before the Scottish Government sets a price, made it clear in the first

:40:53.:40:58.

year would you save 50 lives and prevent hospital admissions, that

:40:58.:41:06.

has to be something worth doing. -- it's what the healthcare

:41:06.:41:08.

professionals want. This Government will rise to the challenge and do

:41:08.:41:12.

what is necessary to tackle our damaging relationship with alcohol.

:41:12.:41:18.

Thank you both very much. Let's rejoin Lorraine Davidson from

:41:18.:41:22.

The Times to talk about this more. A very heated debate there,

:41:22.:41:25.

obviously. Nothing has cooled down over the year, what do you make of

:41:25.:41:29.

it? The Labour Party are now in danger of tying themselves

:41:29.:41:33.

newspaper knots, they got very difficult time at the election and

:41:33.:41:37.

in part it was because of this kind of oppositional attitude. Their

:41:37.:41:39.

arguments now around this are basically that it could be illegal,

:41:39.:41:43.

well the Scottish Government can't bring forward legislation unless

:41:43.:41:46.

it's passed through their lawyers and has been deemed as something

:41:46.:41:51.

that can stand up to a challenge. There is a case of tobacco that was

:41:51.:41:58.

set at minimum price in Italy which did fall foul of EU laws and it was

:41:58.:42:02.

a similar public health argument. So, there are fears around that but

:42:02.:42:09.

they must have legal advice that tells them they can go ahead. The

:42:09.:42:14.

offer of the sunset clause could have been grabbed back, all the

:42:14.:42:18.

arguments about it won't make much difference, she was putting forward

:42:18.:42:22.

a sensible proposal of let's bring it in, let's try it because at the

:42:22.:42:26.

end of the day Scotland has a serious problem with this and it's

:42:26.:42:30.

kids, young people going out drinking cheap stuff on street

:42:30.:42:40.
:42:40.:42:44.

corners, getting completely boozed up, and committing extreme acts.

:42:44.:42:47.

They are rerunning the Sheffield study to look at the price, do you

:42:47.:42:52.

think it might be ramped up to even 50p a unit? I don't think that

:42:52.:42:56.

would be surprising if that were to happen T could be critical the

:42:56.:42:59.

level at which this is set in terms of the impact. Certainly, for

:42:59.:43:04.

people who are going out and yes they might be drinking too much

:43:04.:43:08.

Chablais or whatever over a weekend but they're not the people causing

:43:08.:43:12.

complete and utter carnage. It's the stuff at the lower end and

:43:12.:43:18.

actually even at the 45p level it's the cider and all this, the cheap

:43:18.:43:21.

vodkas that young kids are using to get boozed up on that are the real

:43:22.:43:26.

problem and even at 45% the difference to that is significant.

:43:26.:43:30.

Let's widen out the debate. We saw a heated exchange there. We have

:43:30.:43:33.

seen between Labour Party and the SNP a number of heated exchanges

:43:34.:43:40.

over the independence referendum, the argument at Westminster, we

:43:40.:43:49.

have seen the Lib Dems being criticised for having a - do you

:43:49.:43:55.

think there is there is tension? think tension is putting it lightly.

:43:55.:44:03.

Certainly feelings are running very high at the moment. Labour feeling

:44:03.:44:09.

really done down after the election. SNP perhaps getting carried away in

:44:09.:44:14.

the way New Labour did, after a landslide, you feel invincible.

:44:14.:44:19.

They need to be careful of that and shouting down anyone and everyone

:44:19.:44:22.

that disagrees with them and there is some stuff, if you look at

:44:22.:44:26.

social media, if you say anything that's remotely critical of the SNP

:44:26.:44:31.

or the Scottish Government, Ian Grey had a point, you will be

:44:31.:44:35.

attacked and it's pretty nasty stuff. So they need to find a way

:44:35.:44:41.

of putting a lid on that and taking people with them and continuing in

:44:41.:44:44.

the consensual approach they had before the election. There is a

:44:44.:44:48.

danger with politicians that the SNP have got very good

:44:48.:44:51.

communications structure, but you get amateurs coming in, youngsters

:44:51.:44:54.

that think they're doing the right thing, think they're being on

:44:54.:44:58.

message but they cross a line and get carried away and you get people

:44:58.:45:03.

who have actually never been in the real world and they live in this

:45:03.:45:07.

political bubble, they think that's what you do, they think politics is

:45:07.:45:11.

about being nasty to people. People out there are fighting to keep jobs

:45:11.:45:14.

and pensions, the last thing they want is politicians getting down to

:45:14.:45:19.

the level of, he wasn't very nice to me, and I think he is a dictator.

:45:19.:45:24.

It's absolutely pathetic and just really puts people off politicians.

:45:24.:45:29.

OK, thank you. With the surprise announcement by

:45:29.:45:32.

the Greek Prime Minister to put the euro deal to the people of Greece

:45:32.:45:35.

in a referendum grabbing the political agenda, there are now

:45:35.:45:41.

real and genuine concerns for the future of the single currency. With

:45:41.:45:43.

that and the other issues being discussed at Westminster today,

:45:44.:45:52.

let's cross to our correspondent No shortage of topics featuring

:45:52.:45:59.

amongst MPs here. We have the issue about Greece, the euro and whether

:45:59.:46:04.

Greece will default on its payments. We also have the thorny issue of

:46:04.:46:08.

public sector payments and the political row which has blown up

:46:09.:46:13.

today about renewable energy and the uncertainty that could be

:46:13.:46:17.

caused by an independence referendum. In shortage of topics

:46:17.:46:27.
:46:27.:46:30.

for me to discuss with my four guests.

:46:30.:46:35.

That warn from Citigroup today that the instability caused by will we

:46:35.:46:41.

have a referendum and when will that be is potentially putting

:46:41.:46:45.

investors off coming to Scotland. It is utter nonsense. A lot of

:46:45.:46:51.

investment is going into Scotland in renewables at the moment from

:46:51.:46:55.

companies likes Mitsubishi and others. We have a great deal of

:46:55.:46:59.

businesses supporting us in the last election. We made clear we

:46:59.:47:03.

would have an independence referendum. This is not a problem

:47:03.:47:07.

for businesses investing in Scotland at all. Malcolm Bruce you

:47:07.:47:12.

represent a north-east constituency. Are you seeing any companies

:47:12.:47:15.

hesitating putter their hands in their pockets to invest because of

:47:15.:47:20.

the referendum question? There is uncertainty. Tax changes by

:47:20.:47:25.

Government also causes uncertainty, and I've made my views known about

:47:25.:47:32.

that. You can't dismiss Citibank as being ill informed. They are saying

:47:32.:47:36.

future investors may look askance at Scotland because of the

:47:36.:47:40.

uncertainty this presents. We have enough trouble in the eurozone

:47:40.:47:47.

because of the Greek referendum. Uncertainty is what the markets

:47:47.:47:51.

make. You cannot just dismiss that as irrelevant because it doesn't

:47:51.:47:57.

suit your argument. David Mundell, cue decide between referendum on

:47:57.:48:01.

Scottish independence is going to be held. The Scottish Government is

:48:01.:48:05.

in the best place to resolve it in the short term by telling us what

:48:05.:48:09.

they propose in their referendum. We've got no detail on it, when it

:48:09.:48:14.

will take place, what the questions are. We've repeatedly asked for

:48:14.:48:21.

answers. Nothing's been forthcoming. That's why we do have the uncertain

:48:21.:48:26.

ti. They want to know what's happening with the referendum and

:48:26.:48:30.

when it's taking place. Surely if a company thinks it is a good

:48:30.:48:34.

business proposition to invest in Scotland the politics wouldn't be a

:48:34.:48:36.

determining factor. I don't agree with that. Particularly at the

:48:36.:48:40.

moment, in terms of renewables, where the renewable obligation

:48:40.:48:45.

comes from the whole of the country, that's the uncertainty that

:48:45.:48:49.

Citibank were pointing to. Why would poim invest in a situation

:48:49.:48:54.

where the renewables would be severely cut in Scotland or

:48:54.:48:59.

consumers' bills will go up very high. It is not good enough to

:48:59.:49:04.

dismiss and belittle people he doesn't agree. There's a serious

:49:04.:49:07.

issue for him and the SNP to address. Public sector pensions. We

:49:07.:49:13.

seem to have the unions, despite the meetings today, still on a

:49:13.:49:16.

collision course with the Government. I think any collision

:49:16.:49:20.

course is the fault of the Government for the way in which

:49:20.:49:24.

they've behaved in these negotiations up until now. I hope

:49:24.:49:27.

there's a negotiated settlement. I'm a former trade union official

:49:27.:49:31.

and I know from my experience that getting a negotiated settlement is

:49:31.:49:35.

the best way forward. If there is any difficulty it will be the fault

:49:35.:49:38.

of the Government. If the Government was more generous there

:49:38.:49:42.

wouldn't be threats of strikes? Government wants a negotiated

:49:42.:49:46.

settlement. Negotiations are ongoing. It is disappointing we've

:49:46.:49:50.

got the prospect of strike action before there is an opportunity for

:49:50.:49:54.

those negotiations to conclude. I Fawley understand that those people

:49:54.:49:57.

who are affected by decisions like this are not going to be happy

:49:57.:50:00.

about it but we have to be realistic about public sector

:50:00.:50:04.

pensions in the long term, and make sure that they are sustainable and

:50:04.:50:08.

that we have the money that people can get the pension that they are

:50:08.:50:11.

expecting. From a party political point of view, are you happy that

:50:11.:50:17.

it is your party and indeed your Chief Secretary to the Treasury,

:50:17.:50:20.

Danny Alexander, who seems to be digging his heels in on this and

:50:20.:50:24.

saying no, we are not going to go any further? I'm happy that we have

:50:24.:50:28.

a coalition Government that is determined to tackle the financial

:50:28.:50:31.

and economic problems facing this problem with a sense of purpose and

:50:31.:50:34.

unity, that are giving us lowest interest rates in Europe outside

:50:34.:50:37.

Germany. That I think is a huge benefit to the people of Scotland

:50:37.:50:40.

and the whole of the UK. We have to take these difficult decisions and

:50:40.:50:44.

see them through. Of course we have to negotiate and of course we've

:50:44.:50:47.

got to accommodate people's concerns and come one the best

:50:47.:50:51.

outcome. If we did not and took the advice of other parties, interest

:50:51.:50:55.

rates would shoot up. Economic uncertainty would increase and the

:50:55.:51:01.

economy would be in a much worse state than it is now. Is this going

:51:01.:51:04.

to be one of those rare occasions between Government in Scotland and

:51:04.:51:07.

in London actually speak with a common voice? The position of the

:51:08.:51:12.

Scottish Government is quite clear. They don't want to increase pension

:51:12.:51:15.

contributions. It's the wrong time to do so. That's taking more money

:51:15.:51:19.

out of hard-pressed families at a difficult time. It is going to do

:51:19.:51:23.

nothing for consumer confidence. There's a real issue that people

:51:23.:51:27.

may opt out of these schemes rather than pay the increased

:51:27.:51:30.

contributions that they can't afford. That's a disaster waiting

:51:30.:51:35.

to happen in future. The difficult the Scottish Government face is the

:51:35.:51:41.

Treasury have made clear if they don't implement the rules the

:51:41.:51:47.

budget will be slashed. But, if the money has got to be saved or if you

:51:47.:51:51.

can't afford the pension bill as it is, surely not good saying to

:51:51.:51:54.

people, we are not going to expect tow pay any more into your not

:51:54.:51:58.

but it's the timing as well. People are very hard pressed at the moment.

:51:58.:52:02.

The economy is bumping along. Consumer confidence is very low. To

:52:02.:52:08.

take money out of people's pockets at a time like this is the wrong

:52:08.:52:12.

thing to do. It will reduce confidence and spending and make

:52:12.:52:18.

matters worse rather than improve them. We seem to have what is

:52:18.:52:22.

almost an opera going on in Greece at the moment, agreeing a deal and

:52:22.:52:25.

then saying they'll have a referendum on it. For someone with

:52:25.:52:29.

a financial background like yufrbgs how worried shwe be about what's

:52:29.:52:35.

happening in Greece? I think we should be very worried, and the

:52:35.:52:39.

Greeks should be worried to. A small economy, which isn't that

:52:39.:52:44.

important, is holding us to ransom, because it is unable to meet its

:52:44.:52:50.

commitments, having signed up to a deal. If Greece says no, we have a

:52:50.:52:54.

crisis with the euro, our biggest trading partner. We've got to

:52:54.:52:58.

recognise that it has long-term implications for Scotland. An opt

:52:58.:53:04.

Scotland doesn't even know what it is currency is, nor what the

:53:04.:53:08.

conditions are, is adding uncertainty on uncertainty, which

:53:08.:53:11.

is catastrophic. Britain is in a difficult position. We are on the

:53:11.:53:14.

outside looking in. We are not a member of the euro, so we are not a

:53:14.:53:19.

member of the key countries making those decisions. Yet we could be

:53:19.:53:23.

hugely influenced and affected by what happens. Well, we are going to

:53:23.:53:27.

be impacted by what happens with the euro that's why it is important

:53:27.:53:31.

to us that there's a dealing on Greece, a deal that holds, that

:53:31.:53:35.

sustains and that there's a deal on the whole euro issue. We want to

:53:35.:53:39.

see more flesh on the bone, in relation to that. There's been a

:53:39.:53:43.

number of discussions, most of which have been good words but not

:53:43.:53:47.

actually action. We need that to be followed through in the forthcoming

:53:47.:53:50.

days.. We can't pretend that there'll not be an impact on

:53:50.:53:55.

Britain by a failure of the euro. Whilst I wouldn't support Britain

:53:55.:54:00.

being in the euro, I don't want to see it fail. There must be a sigh

:54:00.:54:03.

of relief that your party did not take introduce the euro when you

:54:03.:54:08.

were in Government? I don't think the economic conditions were ever

:54:08.:54:12.

right to make that decision, so it didn't happen. What's important now

:54:12.:54:16.

is that there is real leadership from the Government at the G20 in

:54:16.:54:19.

Cannes. We need to get international action to get this

:54:19.:54:25.

resolved as quickly as possible. We have seen the toxicity of the

:54:25.:54:27.

European issue for the Conservative Party at Westminster that.

:54:27.:54:32.

Shouldn't stop David Cameron trying to take leadership in the G20 to

:54:32.:54:37.

try to get this resolved. A yes or no answer to look into your

:54:37.:54:45.

economic crystal ball, is Greece going to default on its payments,

:54:45.:54:49.

and will the euro survive? I think it is likely that Greece will

:54:50.:54:53.

default. I think it is likely if it does it will crash out of the euro

:54:53.:54:58.

and the euro will have to rethink its parameters? It is possible but

:54:58.:55:03.

tinge euro will survive. Yes, they will default but the euro will

:55:03.:55:11.

survive in some form. Thank you all. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us.

:55:11.:55:15.

There you have it, Andrew. Pessimism about Greece's position

:55:15.:55:20.

and also some concern about the euro and the future of the euro as

:55:20.:55:24.

well. It is an issue I think we'll be returning to in the weeks and

:55:24.:55:28.

months ahead. Indeed, David. Thank you.

:55:28.:55:31.

I'm joined for a final time by our political commentator from The

:55:31.:55:36.

Times, Lorraine Davidson. Let's pick up on the European issue.

:55:36.:55:41.

David said it was an opera going on in Greece. Malcolm Bruce said he

:55:41.:55:45.

was very worried. How worried should we be and what would the

:55:45.:55:48.

impact be in the UK and Scottish economies? It is disastrous. It is

:55:49.:55:53.

more of a Greek tragedy really. It's a very unwelcome development,

:55:53.:55:56.

having a referendum which, as all the politicians have pointsed out,

:55:56.:56:02.

it is difficult to see how could it be won. It is going to have

:56:02.:56:05.

terrible implications for the your open. Our economy is intrinsically

:56:05.:56:09.

linked to Europe's. We've got politician there is saying phew,

:56:09.:56:14.

isn't it good we didn't go into did euro! All it means that we didn't

:56:14.:56:19.

go into the euro. Our economy is linked to theirs and yet we are not

:56:19.:56:23.

at the important meetings where we can influence the debate and rescue

:56:23.:56:28.

the euro. It is almost the worst possible position. This will impact

:56:28.:56:33.

on us massively and yet we are not in there fighting. In fairness to

:56:34.:56:37.

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, they did put together a sustainable

:56:37.:56:43.

deal to ensure the survival of the euro. Our panel there pretty much

:56:43.:56:47.

thought that Greece would default. If they did, the contagion might

:56:47.:56:51.

spread? It might, you could end up with people thinking we can't play

:56:51.:56:59.

about with this, we are now staring down the barrel of the gun. If

:56:59.:57:03.

everybody starts dropping like flies, the disastrous impact of

:57:03.:57:09.

that right across Europe, I think reality might kick in. Committee

:57:10.:57:13.

can get into did Domesday scenario. That's why we are seeing the

:57:13.:57:17.

markets falling, because they always look at worst case scenarios,

:57:17.:57:23.

because they have to, but I think in reality it could be contained in

:57:23.:57:29.

Greece. There was a Greek mirror to Scottish politics, the Greek

:57:29.:57:35.

referendum causing uncertainty about the euro. We heard about

:57:35.:57:39.

Citigroup causing uncertainty. That was denied strongly in that

:57:39.:57:44.

discussion. One of the SNPs' problems in materialy days of the

:57:44.:57:47.

Scottish Parliament was the uprising of business. That's gone

:57:47.:57:52.

away, because they've been in government. They've been pretty

:57:52.:57:58.

business friendly. Alex Salmond's problem was that he stood up at

:57:58.:58:01.

conference and he said it would be powered on the back of renewables.

:58:01.:58:05.

Now a serious player is saying don't go near Scotland, this is a

:58:05.:58:10.

bit of a problem. So, they seem to be linking that to the referendum

:58:10.:58:14.

rather than the aftermath of the referendum. So I can see a

:58:14.:58:17.

situation now where the opposition are going to be buoyed by this and

:58:17.:58:21.

they are going to be trying to stir up other companies. If David

:58:21.:58:27.

Cameron had any sense he would be trying to wind people up and using

:58:27.:58:34.

his business contacts to make this more of a debate in Scotland.

:58:34.:58:36.

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