04/02/2016 Politics Scotland


04/02/2016

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set of negotiations between the UK and Scottish Government. As of now,

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no sign particularly of a deal emerging. We shall see. That is the

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end of coverage here from First Minister's Questions. Time to hand

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you over to The Daily Politics. was that 1983 general election. If

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you recall - I'm sure you do, Andrew, although not all your

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listeners will - it was Enoch Powell during the election campaign who

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said, "We have now been in the European Community for ten years,

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increasingly our economy and society, everything is

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increasingly our economy and emmeshed, if we don't leave now, it

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is too late, it is over, we are then in there forever." That was very

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much the pitch on which the Labour Party, unsuccessfully fought the

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election. In '83 you fought with a manifesto to withdraw. The manifesto

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said it was incompatible with a radical, socialist agenda. Well, a

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will the has changed since then. Well, I don't know, you may have a

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leader who wants a radical, Well, I don't know, you may have a

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socialist agenda? What I mean is, among the things that have changed

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is when we were arguing we could come out and have a sustainable

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trading relationship, etc, we had trade links with the after

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countries. We still had links with the Commonwealth. All those

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countries, pretty much, nearly all, are in the European Union now. One

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of the things we said in our campaign - these six countries are

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not Europe. You are a bit pushed to say it is not Europe. It is so many.

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Speaking of Europe, we welcome a part of it, Scotlands joins us, we

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have been watching First Minister questions. We are talking Europe

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with Margaret Becker, the former Labour Defence Secretary. Are we to

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be suspicious about how enthusiastic that Mr Jeremy Corbyn and Mr

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McDonnell, the shadow Chancellor are aboutp Euro-scepticism? I don't

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think so. The hard left of the Labour Party has always been anti-EU

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at least and very eurosceptic at most. Well, I think once you start

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to really look at the issues, in a perhaps a way that not everybody on

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the hard left has done before, you begin to realise what a difference

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it would make and the fact that there were very strong rumour that

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is our present government wanted to unpin some of that social Europe

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that Jacques delower talked about, underpin it, it destroy it. Unpick

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It, that I think, again, confirmed to people in our party that, yes,

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this is actually, with all its faults and all the need for reform

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there is, this is where we should be. And you would vote to stay in,

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even if Mr Cameron had achieved nothing? Many people don't think he

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has achieved a lot. But even if he had achieved nothing. Even if he

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said after the election - right let's have a referendum now on our

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existing terms of membership, you would vote to stay? I probably

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would. Shrimp - not because I'm a Europe fanatic, but because the

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alternatives are so undesirable. I don't think there is. There is so

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much dishonesty. All this talk about how we stop free movement of Labour.

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There is no country that trades with the European Union that doesn't have

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to abide by the free movement of Labour. Well there are a lot of

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countries with free trade arrangements with Europe and they

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don't have free movement of people Nothing of the significant players

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around like Norway or Switzerland, with whom we are always compared.

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Canada? Well, that's rather a separate issue. It is a free trade

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arrangement They are not in our neck of the woods, so to speak. Also, it

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leaves out of consideration how, if we vote to come out, how the rest of

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Europe is going to feel to us? Are they going to feel warm and generous

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and - yes, OK let's give you a more preferential trading arrangement. I

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suspect not. Time will tell, depending on how we vote.

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Now last month Labour published Margaret's long-awaited report

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into why the party lost last year's General Election.

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But one Labour pollster who carried out research for the report wasn't

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Here's what Deborah Mattinson told the Sunday Politics last month.

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I would say that my conclusions were very different from Margaret

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Beckett's. I did brief Margaret Beckett so, I was somewhat

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disappointed not to see some of that reflected back. Yes, I think she

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picked up on the economy. But there was actually no analysis - it's

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reduced down effectively to one Bullet point in the report. Quite

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apologetic. Lots of defensive stuff in there but nothing that actually,

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really, I felt shone a light on what had gone wrong. I think it was a

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white wash. I think it was a massive, missed opportunity. So,

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Deborah Mattinson calls your report a white wash. What is your response?

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Well I'm sorry I have a lot of respect for Deborah who has done a

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lot of good work for the Labour Party in her time but I thought it

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was a rather silly thing to say, to be perfectly frank. By the way, the

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work she did was not commissioned for our task force, it was

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commissioned separately for Harriet Harman as something to inform her

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period of leadership. But, yes, we were briefed about it. What hasn't

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come out in these conversations is it was actually quite a restricted

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group of people. Deborah herself acknowledged that when she briefed

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us. It was a restricted tight group of people she bass talking to. The

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reason we were briefed about it shall she was talking to. The reason

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we were briefed was because I asked what information we could have that

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could come in from the general public, rather than from around the

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party or professional pollsters. What is there if anything that could

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tell us where the general public were coming from. All this was was

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this one, set of ideas, no, it was comments, really, but, from, as I

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say a Retallick stricted single group. Only -- a really restricted

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single group. Only because there was no money to do more. You didn't

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criticise the Labour leader, you called the manifesto an impressive

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document you blamed the Tories, the SNP, you blamed the media, naturally

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t didn't seem to be Labour's fault. When you see that, it does seem to

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be a white wash I don't think that's what the report did say. There are

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two groups of people who have responded to the report, one is a

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group that approached it with a relatively open mind and another is

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a group that approached it in their own various ways with axes ready to

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grind. I didn't ignore the fact of some of the things that the

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Conservatives had done, some of the ways they had played T I didn't

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ignore some of the other players, I touched on the issue of the media. I

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could have written a back about that, I didn't, I touched on T I did

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not excuse - I said, "We failed." Our job was to try to create trust

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in our economic policy, in our approach on immigration, in our

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approach on welfare and we failed. Did you speak to Ed Miliband for the

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report? Yes. Did you tone it down a bit as a result? You were very kind

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to him. I know a lot of people will disagree. You may be one of them.

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But what I said about Ed Miliband's leadership is what I believe and had

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believed all the way through. I didn't tone it down out of kindness.

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I thought Ed did a much better job than he was given credit for. If I

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can say to you, one of the things that I think people who are critical

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are overlooking, who the report was for and what it had to take into

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account. There is a sense in which we all know why we lost the

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election, everybody knows that, because of the issues we didn't get

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trust on but one of the things that certainly people in the Labour Party

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wanted to know is - but why did we do well in some parts of the country

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and not in others? What happened with the opinion polls? Why did they

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mislead us? People wanted the answers to those questions as well

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and that's what we tried to do. Well you cite reasons to be positive

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about Labour now, including Jeremy Corbyn, as one of the reasons to be

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positive. So, do you no longer regard yourself as a moron, your

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words, not mine, for nominating Mr Jeremy Corbyn? It wasn't my word it

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was John - I have forgotten his name, somebody who worked in number

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ten, he said it, I referred to it, in a radio interview, he said t and

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I said I'm one of them. I'm not resiling from that. Are you, or are

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you not? I didn't intend, Jeremy, to have a serious chance of being the

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leader when I nominated him. I have been quite open about that, there is

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no point in pretending. He has been elected overwhelmingly. My hope, if

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you like, prayer, is that you can do the same miracle with the public as

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he managed to do with members of the Labour Party. Do you think that will

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require a miracle? Neither you or eye could have predicted it. No, not

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at all. Not even Mr Jeremy Corbyn could have predicted it.

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Let's return to our main story - the EU referendum.

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We will be hearing a lot about it between now and when we think the

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referendum will be, the end of June, possibly.

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David Cameron admitted yesterday that the draft deal on the UK's

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membership of the EU is "not perfect".

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But he added that Britain's position would be stronger and better

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Not so, say his critics, who argue that Britain will be

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Among them is Conservative MP, David Davis, who has been giving

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The thin gruel has been further watered down,

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My right honourable friend has a fortnight, I think,

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in which to salvage his reputation as a negotiator.

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This is a process and he might not get what he wants.

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Now I understand he won't able to come to Manchester

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because he is still in the negotiations,

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but could he come on February 19th to our Go conference then,

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if he doesn't get what he wants and would it be possible for me

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to drop off at tie at Downing Street for him?

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My honourable friend is always very generous with his time,

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with his advice and now also with his clothing.

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I feel the blazer is soon to follow...

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I won't be able to come, I don't think on February 19th.

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I hope I will still be in the thick of negotiations but I of course

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will report back to this House and give the results.

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That was the Prime Minister. Let's speak it David Davis who joins us

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now. So summarise for us what would

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Britain's position be outside the EU? Well, it looks, I spent this

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morning giving a great - long lecture on the current benefits and

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what we could get outside. We would be better off in terms of global

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trade. We can do greater trade deals than the European Union does on our

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bha. We would not lose anything in temples our access to the European

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markets. Apart from anything else, the German car industry alone would

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have a $16 billion market put at risk and Merkel, politicians would

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not allow that. There is a very not easy but straightforward

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negotiation. You think we would get the advantages and pay no price for

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that access? The only area where it won't work is on agriculture where

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we would have to have some particular deal and subsidise

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British farming in a free market position. Other than that, it is

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pretty straight - it is pretty clear that the end game would be a free

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market arrangement. Just as they have just struck with Canada. They

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have just - Canada is a famously free market, world market. I used to

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work in Canada, you buy sugar in Canada, it is world market sugar,

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everything is world market. They have struck it with Canada. If they

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When you talk about the single anybody.

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When you talk about the single market you are talking about

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manufactured products and not services. 70% of our GDP is

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services. It does not follow that is Europe widens and deepens the single

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market that our services would get the same access as if we were

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inside. That is right if we ... There is not really a single market

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in services now. When the EU does free trade agreements with the rest

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of the world, 20 odd agreements, in only six of them were services

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mentioned. If we did our own they would the mentioned every time,

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banking will be left out completely because of the sensitivities in

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Europe. If we did a TTIP ourselves it would be in. There are balances

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and they look squarely in favour... So we would not have too continue

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with the free movement of people in the single market? We are talking

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after a Brexit referendum. Several million votes will be about

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migration so no government could offer anything on free movement,

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they would need absolute governmental control of borders. The

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Europeans understand that and at the end of the day European

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negotiations, I have been there and done it, are about national

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interest. No national government, Angela Merkel, they are not going to

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give up the interests of their major industries to promote the European

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ideal. That may be logical. It's also political. What about the point

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Margaret Beckett was making earlier? Europe could be so angry as a result

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of us leaving that they may not be inclined to be as generous with the

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single market as you think. There could be an element of Britain

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leaving and not suffering, getting the benefits without having to sit

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in the European Parliament and on the European Council, others may

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follow. So they will be tougher on us. That bit is certainly true but

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judging from history what normally happens is that if we have Brexit

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there will be three months of screaming and shouting and threats

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and then they calmed down. The day after Brexit happens the Chief

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Executive 's dogs barking, BMW, Audi and Mercedes -- of Volkswagen. They

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would be queueing up saying that we have do have access for the 16

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billion market. What do you say to that? It is pie in the sky, frankly.

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I know David was the Europe minister at one time but I have had a bit of

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experience myself over something like ten or 11 years of intense

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negotiation on agriculture and climate change. I just think, if I

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can say so with some modesty I pride myself on my negotiation track

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record. The risks are huge and the certainties are non-. What's

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interesting in the last decade, people always say this will give us

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huge leveraged. If you look at the way we are treated, we lose twice as

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many votes as anyone in Europe. Just now, David Cameron has asked for a

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really trivial set of demands and haven't even been given them. If you

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look at something really important like the free trade agreements that

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Europe strikes with other countries and areas of the world, we lose out

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in two thirds of them and that is how much influence we have in Europe

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now. We do better. If you want to go down this road you need someone

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strong to sell the message and it looks as though it won't be Theresa

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May leading believing campaign? That is up to Teresa. I have no idea.

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Boris Johnson? You would need to get Boris to answer that question. But

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you speak to these people all the time. To be honest I don't think it

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matters that much, beyond the M25 what matters is this, what will this

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do for the 3 million jobs that get thrown around, my job, my welfare,

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my interest, and they will make that decision not on whether a blonde

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bombshell makes it. It's not for me. I tried. You did.

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Now we know that tossers are commonplace in politics,

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but did you know that tossing is, in fact, a vital part

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Yes, in Iowa earlier this week, some of the Democratic caucuses

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literally came down to the toss of a coin.

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But coin tosses have been used plenty of times in democratic

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elections, as have other random selection methods.

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In sport it is used at the start of a match and in politics it is used

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to end one. Coin tosses are a rare sight and only used in the event of

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a tie and when there are rounding errors. Monday's Iowa Democratic

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caucus was one of the history books as Hillary Clinton tied with her

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rival Bernie Sanders in six precincts so it was down to look to

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decide and Clinton won them all, one 64 chance. It's not the only time

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that the random factor has been harnessed for democracy, the mayor

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of a town in Peru was decided when the top two candidates tied at 236

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votes each, not a huge turnout. It's not always coin tossing, cutting

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cards and drawing lots. The legal position is that the winning coin

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toss is considered a vote. As it was with the Bari council elections in

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2011. After three and recounts it was a dead heat in Ramsbottom. They

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are obliged to produce a result and they were clutching at straws. It

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has never happened yet at a UK general election but if it does one

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imagines that the loss of a toss might make the defeated candidate

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flipping annoyed. Well joining me now from Norwich

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is Lana Hempsell, a Conservative councillor who actually won

:18:51.:18:52.

an election on the toss of a coin, and Rene Linstaedt, an expert

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on American politics Welcome. In Iowa it was necessary in

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some of the caucuses to flip a coin because it was a dead heat for

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Sanders and Clinton? Part of the problem was that in some of these

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caucus sites, individuals that had registered had actually left prior

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to being counted, and the overall number of registered caucusgoers was

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higher than individuals left, so not all of the delegates could be

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assigned to the candidates. Do we know how many ended up tossing a

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coin? I don't know exactly what the number is, but it happened a number

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of times. It's not surprising because there are such a small

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number of individuals involved that you would either have a situation

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where there is a tie or because it is so unorganised, the whole

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process, people would just leave. Did they have a recount? Well, yes.

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That is what we would do. They counted the number of individuals,

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and some in one of the district 's people had gone so there was nothing

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they could do. You won your council seat on the toss of a coin, how many

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recounts were there before it was decided to resolve it? We had three

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recounts in total so it was close on the first one and then we get three

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more and it was a dead heat. I see. A coin was tossed. Did you choose

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heads or tails? I chose heads and it was a split-second decision because

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the coin was already flying before I was asking if anyone got to choose

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and as it was landing I shouted out heads because my agent nudged me. Do

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you still have the coin, it must be your lucky coin? No, this was

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Broadlands, the coin went back into the pocket of the returning officer.

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He spent it on a diet Coke later on. How did your opponent feel? Did they

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feel cheated? Did they think in the end it was a fair way of resolving

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the matter? He wasn't there at the count so I have no idea why he

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didn't turn up, but I was there to bask in the glory all by myself. I

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did see him later and he did not think it was fair. And there were

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questions about double sided coins etc. You could have said heads I

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win, tails you lose and he would not object as he was not there! The New

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Hampshire primary, not a caucus, if it is closed their there will be

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recounts an recounts rather than tossing a coin. -- if it is close

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there. Sometimes delegates are proportionally split so you do not

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need to toss a coin? 49.6 versus 49.4. That is true. It can happen in

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smaller states where you have ties and it certainly happens all the

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time in smaller elections for City councils. Because you were asking

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earlier about elections, Federal elections in the US or national

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elections here, it actually hasn't happened. Who will win New Hampshire

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for the Democrats? It will be close. I know that. I'm not in the business

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of making predictions. CHUCKLES Thank you both.

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There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

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The question was what narrowly missed hitting Margaret

:22:46.:22:46.

report into why Labour lost the election?

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Maybe Deborah Mattinson through it! I'm just joking.

:22:58.:22:59.

So Margaret, what's the correct answer?

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It was a mobile phone dropped from the press gallery. By accident?

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Presumably. And we're joined now

:23:12.:23:13.

by the fellow who nearly Can we just clear this up, it was

:23:14.:23:15.

Tom Newton Dunn is on the phone now. Can we just clear this up, it was

:23:16.:23:27.

entirely an accident? I can confirm it was not an assassination attempt.

:23:28.:23:28.

It was entirely an accident. it was not an assassination attempt.

:23:29.:23:34.

Margaret, let me say that I'm incredibly sorry and I was utterly

:23:35.:23:37.

mortified that I almost hit you on the head. Thank you very much for

:23:38.:23:44.

taking it in the right way. To be fair it was a bipartisan attack

:23:45.:23:47.

because Cheryl Gillan was next to me. It could have gone either way.

:23:48.:23:54.

We agreed that former Cabinet ministers who are women are not

:23:55.:23:59.

popular! Did the phones survive? It fell 20 feet and it did. I won't say

:24:00.:24:06.

what type of phone it is on the BBC but it is still intact. Cheryl

:24:07.:24:18.

Gillan tweeted me to say that if I had been four inches to the left I

:24:19.:24:21.

would have killed two birds with one stone. I think we will say goodbye

:24:22.:24:27.

there. Thank you very much. Thank you to my guests especially Margaret

:24:28.:24:28.

Beckett. I will be back at you to my guests especially Margaret

:24:29.:24:40.

on BBC One for this week when we will have Michael Portillo and Alan

:24:41.:24:43.

Johnson and we may talk about Europe, who knows? I will be back

:24:44.:24:49.

also here tomorrow on BBC Two with the Daily Politics

:24:50.:24:50.

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