Browse content similar to 08/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good afternoon and welcome to a special edition | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
The Chancellor Philip Hammond says the Scottish government | :00:08. | :00:10. | |
is to receive millions extra every year. | :00:11. | :00:19. | |
For the devolved administrations, our announcements today deliver | :00:20. | :00:25. | |
additional funding of ?350 million for the Scottish Government... ?200 | :00:26. | :00:28. | |
million... Over the next hour we'll crunching | :00:29. | :00:33. | |
the numbers and getting Here at Westminster, the Chancellor | :00:34. | :00:42. | |
has had his say. We will be gauging reaction to his handiwork. | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
The Chancellor Philip Hammond has delivered his first | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
Budget to the Commons, and the first since Britain voted | :00:51. | :00:53. | |
He told the Commons that the Budget provides a strong platform | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
for Brexit negotiations and continues the task | :00:58. | :00:58. | |
of getting Britain back to living within its means. | :00:59. | :01:02. | |
There is no room for complacency and you will not find any on these | :01:03. | :01:08. | |
benches. As we prepare for future outside the EU, we cannot rest on | :01:09. | :01:15. | |
our past achievements. We must focus on keeping Britain at the cutting | :01:16. | :01:20. | |
edge of the global economy. The deficit is down, but that is still | :01:21. | :01:25. | |
too high. Employment is up but productivity remains stubbornly low. | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
Too many of our young people are leaving formal education without the | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
skills they need for two-day's labour market. And too many families | :01:35. | :01:39. | |
are still feeling the squeeze, almost a decade after the crash. So | :01:40. | :01:45. | |
our job is not done. Our task today is to take the next steps in | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
preparing Britain for a global future. | :01:49. | :01:49. | |
We'll look in a moment at how he might do that. | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
But first, to help us make sense of it all, | :01:53. | :01:54. | |
our Business Correspondent David Henderson is here. | :01:55. | :01:56. | |
We should start off by pointing out this is the last spring budget. So | :01:57. | :02:04. | |
it is not, and there will be run in the autumn, so it is not surprising | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
it is a bit thin compared to what we are used to. But give us the | :02:10. | :02:16. | |
highlights. It was a bit thin, bit of a relaxed speech, poking fun at | :02:17. | :02:20. | |
the Labour front bench at times, making jokes. But limited in terms | :02:21. | :02:26. | |
of its content, as steady as you go budget. When it comes to making the | :02:27. | :02:36. | |
tough economic decisions, it'll be over the Chancellor. Much of this | :02:37. | :02:45. | |
speech focused on England and English domestic matters, issues | :02:46. | :02:48. | |
which are reserved to Westminster. Issues which we deal with up here | :02:49. | :02:54. | |
through the Scottish Parliament. Things like transport and social | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
care and suchlike, the NHS. Philip Hammond was making announcements | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
there which relate solely to England. So the impact here is | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
indirect, it is through the Barnett funding formula. Let's look at the | :03:10. | :03:14. | |
key takeaway points. First, the health of the economy. The | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
Chancellor told us the independence for budget responsibility has | :03:21. | :03:25. | |
upgraded its forecast. You can see therefore the UK economic forecasts, | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
up from 1.4%, as announced last August to 2%. That initial | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
announcement was made in the depth of gloom in the impact of Brexit. A | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
happier outlook on that front for the economy this year. Borrowing, he | :03:42. | :03:51. | |
said would be lower than forecast. ?16.4 billion lower than forecast | :03:52. | :03:56. | |
during that Autumn Statement in November. Again, standing at about | :03:57. | :04:04. | |
?52 billion. So a better outlook for the economy, more taxes available | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
for the government to spend on hospitals and schools. The end | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
result, as he announced, will be extra spending for the devolved | :04:14. | :04:19. | |
administrations including, he said, an extra ?350 million for Scotland. | :04:20. | :04:26. | |
We take that to mean over the term of this Parliament, funded through | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
the Barnett formula. He also announced a focus on the North Sea. | :04:31. | :04:38. | |
Not much detail, he announced a review of North Sea taxes, the | :04:39. | :04:42. | |
intention to see how companies here can be helped to recover as much oil | :04:43. | :04:46. | |
and Gas UK is possible from the North Sea. But the one I think will | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
generate the most political heat, already generating a lot of | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
headlines, the impact on workers. The big story for workers, | :04:57. | :05:00. | |
self-employed workers are facing a rise in national insurance | :05:01. | :05:05. | |
contributions. Philip Hammond saying it was unfair that the self-employed | :05:06. | :05:10. | |
should pay less tax than people earning the same amount of money. He | :05:11. | :05:15. | |
said that would ultimately generate ?145 million a year for public | :05:16. | :05:25. | |
services. It breaches their manifesto commitment? A quote from | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
the Conservative manifesto it says... We will commit to no | :05:31. | :05:36. | |
increases in VAT, national insurance contributions or income tax. | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
So whatever the rights and wrongs of that policy, the issues around | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
fairness, their opponents are accusing them of breaching their | :05:45. | :05:48. | |
manifesto commitment. David, thank you very much indeed. | :05:49. | :05:50. | |
Now, the Chancellor said the Budget will deliver an extra ?350 million | :05:51. | :05:53. | |
of funding for the Scottish Government. | :05:54. | :05:55. | |
Let's cross to Holyrood now, and our Political Editor Brian Taylor. | :05:56. | :05:57. | |
Is this ?350 million over the terms of the parliament, ?350 million a | :05:58. | :06:11. | |
year? I understand it is over three years but it is front-loaded with | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
the bulk of the cash coming in the first year. It arises out of | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
expenditure south of the border on hospitals and social care. But the | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
Scottish Government can spend it as they wish. When the Chancellor made | :06:26. | :06:31. | |
the announcement, you saw him waving towards the SNP benches, encouraging | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
them to cheer. But they didn't. It isn't the role of the opposition to | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
cheer Chancellor's budget. Few cheers coming from the Scottish | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
Government. They point out it is over an extended period. They do | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
welcome extra cash but it is a product of the formula, it is not a | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
huge uplift. Be sceptical about the announcement on the North Sea. They | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
say they have been looking for these fields to be given a tax boots. But | :07:00. | :07:04. | |
the Chancellor has announced another review and examination of it. The | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
money coming to Scotland is great news, aiming to the SNP should | :07:10. | :07:17. | |
cancel their proposals on taxation. I think we will wait a long time | :07:18. | :07:24. | |
before that happens. On this oil and gasping, there was some speculation | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
there would be specific measures. -- gas thing. The it was expected | :07:30. | :07:38. | |
something might actually do something, but basically they have | :07:39. | :07:42. | |
said they will have a look at? It was expected by Scottish ministers | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
something would be done. They said they have been calling over the last | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
two or three budgets for action to be taken on this area to spread tax | :07:51. | :07:57. | |
redistribution to help the smaller companies who are taking on these | :07:58. | :08:03. | |
later fields. Good news for the oil and gas industry, potentially it is, | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
but at the moment at this stage it is just setting up an expert review | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
group. This is to do with keeping the oil flowing, it is not to do | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
with getting money out of oil. I noticed hidden away in the OBR | :08:19. | :08:27. | |
outlook, the revenue from oil is forecasted to be zero right until | :08:28. | :08:35. | |
2022? Absolutely, it has declined. The Chancellor while announcing what | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
could be benefits to the North Sea, there is a political underlying | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
message as well, which is to save these measures are only required | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
because the take from the North Sea is declining so sharply. In the past | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
year and the past decade, the past several decades, it has been an | :08:56. | :08:58. | |
issue of contention in Scotland with regard to the economy and also with | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
regard to the prospects of the Scottish economy and their | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
independence. Thank you for joining us this afternoon. | :09:07. | :09:09. | |
Well, with me in the studio this afternoon are two Budget experts. | :09:10. | :09:12. | |
Ray Perman is Director of the David Hume Insititute, | :09:13. | :09:14. | |
and Dr Angela O'Hagan is a lecturer in social and public policy | :09:15. | :09:17. | |
Let's take a look at something we were talking about earlier. He has | :09:18. | :09:31. | |
increased growth forecast but it goes back to 1.6, comes back up to | :09:32. | :09:40. | |
2% by 2020. All of this is lower than the normal, the shadow of the | :09:41. | :09:45. | |
financial crash is still over us? The world changed in 2008. For over | :09:46. | :09:53. | |
30 years before that we were average 2.5% growth for the UK. Since 2008 | :09:54. | :09:59. | |
that has taken a knock. Getting back to 2% this year is pretty good going | :10:00. | :10:06. | |
in the present circumstances. But as the OBR was forecasting, that will | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
fall and will get back to 2% until 2020. We assume this is the shadow | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
of recession? People were surprised Brexit didn't | :10:15. | :10:30. | |
have an immediate effect after the vote last year. We are still members | :10:31. | :10:37. | |
of the EU, but it will have an effect on the economy. The | :10:38. | :10:40. | |
Chancellor has foreseen that and it will come in the next five years. | :10:41. | :10:44. | |
The paradox at the moment is business investment is due to fall, | :10:45. | :10:49. | |
perhaps even falling at the moment, but as consumers we are out spending | :10:50. | :10:56. | |
like there is no tomorrow and it is keeping the economy going? | :10:57. | :10:59. | |
Unfortunately we are all borrowing like there's no tomorrow, that | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
cannot go on for ever so consumer spending will decline. Angela, can | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
you pick up on this thing about the self-employed. It is being presented | :11:10. | :11:14. | |
as an anomaly that there is a difference in the national insurance | :11:15. | :11:16. | |
rates for self-employed and be employed. The points you are making | :11:17. | :11:23. | |
is, a lot of the people are counted as self-employed are only there | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
because of the financial crash? Yes, we were hearing about the resilience | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
of the economy, but who is paying for that resilience? It is low paid | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
workers. Many of those low-paid workers are among the newly created | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
self-employed, which we have seen huge reforms and restructuring in | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
the labour market since the recession and since the crash of | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
almost ten years ago. One of the consequences of that is the | :11:51. | :11:57. | |
combining of those effects with welfare reform and sanctions and the | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
punitive system there is now has forced the lot of people into | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
self-employment. So your point would be, we still have a mental image of | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
self-employed people, quite a middle-class. Not the same people | :12:11. | :12:16. | |
who were there before 2008, this is people on low income who were driven | :12:17. | :12:22. | |
into it by the financial crisis? As research based in Scotland is | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
showing, a lot of those newly created self-employed people are not | :12:26. | :12:32. | |
earning the minimum wage. A lot of them are using self-employment as | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
opposed to benefits and benefit sanctions. We are also seeing, they | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
are not reaching the levels of the national minimum wage, so what were | :12:43. | :12:50. | |
the implications of setting thresholds of 16,500 B for people on | :12:51. | :12:53. | |
low incomes and those who are just tipped over that 16,000 threshold, | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
are seeing an increase in their contributions. The Chancellor | :12:59. | :13:03. | |
saying, it will only be 60p a week. People are still to do the numbers | :13:04. | :13:10. | |
on what that means. If you are just tipping into profitability in your | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
owner occupied, sole trader capacity, you will be hit again. The | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
biggest increase in self-employment is women leaving formal or paid | :13:19. | :13:23. | |
employment for all sorts of reasons, and during sex discrimination. But | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
those women are amongst those very low earners. Let's be more positive, | :13:29. | :13:37. | |
the OBR forecast said we are over the recession but they are not | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
forecasting a recession as a result of Brexit. The OBR figures are | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
supposed to be independent of the government. They are showing no | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
Brexit effect until right out until 2022? | :13:52. | :13:56. | |
The OBR forecasts are no better than anybody else's. The economists are | :13:57. | :14:02. | |
no better than forecasting the weather man, but actually the | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
weatherman or improved! We can't take it as gospel. They are not | :14:08. | :14:11. | |
forecasting that Brexit is going to push us into recession, they are | :14:12. | :14:15. | |
forecasting that it is going to read juice growth, therefore it will | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
reduce earnings and tax revenues. -- reduce growth. It is just forecasts, | :14:20. | :14:29. | |
and corrected by 2020. It is corrected just before the next | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
general election. Howard Davies say that, they are completely | :14:34. | :14:38. | |
independent! You will get a row for that. I shall next time I see him. | :14:39. | :14:44. | |
But I think the Chancellor will be clinging to that. The Chancellor | :14:45. | :14:49. | |
said he will build up reserves against Brexit uncertainty. Now, | :14:50. | :14:53. | |
Britain doesn't have reserves. What we have is borrowing, we have that. | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
What he is doing is borrowing less at the moment so that he can borrow | :14:58. | :15:01. | |
more later, and that is how he is going to get us through the problems | :15:02. | :15:06. | |
of Brexit. Should they arise. We will be back with both of you later | :15:07. | :15:07. | |
on. Let's get reaction to | :15:08. | :15:08. | |
Philip Hammond's Budget speech from the Scottish Secretary David | :15:09. | :15:10. | |
Mundell. David, first of all, this ?350 | :15:11. | :15:20. | |
million, can you just clarify, that's over three years, is it? Yes, | :15:21. | :15:27. | |
it is. It is through the 2021. It involves a combination of capital | :15:28. | :15:32. | |
and revenue. But combined with the ?800 million that came with the | :15:33. | :15:35. | |
Autumn Statement, it means that the Scottish Government have over ?1 | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
billion extra which they didn't anticipate having this time last | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
year. So it is additional money, it means that there are not excuses for | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
not doing the things that need to be done in Scotland in relation to | :15:49. | :15:53. | |
health and education, in relation to bring forward significant capital | :15:54. | :15:56. | |
projects. And with the powers which made this year's Scottish Budget so | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
historic and significant, the Scottish Government have the | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
resources available to do what they say they need to do in Scotland. | :16:06. | :16:10. | |
Now, we have been hearing from Angela O'Hagan how a lot of people, | :16:11. | :16:14. | |
not just in Scotland but throughout the UK, who are now self-employed | :16:15. | :16:19. | |
Afri ended up being there because of the recession, they have been driven | :16:20. | :16:26. | |
out of the labour force. How can you justify increasing National | :16:27. | :16:28. | |
Insurance contributions for groups of people, some of whom are only | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
there as a result of the recession? Firstly, as your piece did | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
acknowledge, nobody earning less than ?16,500 will be affected by | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
these measures. But the underlying approach, which Philip Hammond has | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
that outcome is one of fairness. People who are currently | :16:47. | :16:49. | |
self-employed are often paid thousands of pounds less in National | :16:50. | :16:53. | |
Insurance companies than people doing the same job who are employed. | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
In the past, there were different arrangements for pensions and other | :16:59. | :17:01. | |
benefits if you are self-employed compared to if you were on the PAYE | :17:02. | :17:08. | |
system. That is not the case as much now. And therefore it is a measure | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
that is based on treating people who are doing the same job, getting the | :17:14. | :17:19. | |
same income, fairly. Oil and gas, there were hopes amongst some in the | :17:20. | :17:21. | |
Scottish Government that measures would be announced to help the | :17:22. | :17:27. | |
particular tax issues of smaller companies taking over fields which | :17:28. | :17:32. | |
are depleted. Instead there's a review. How serious is that review? | :17:33. | :17:36. | |
Will there be specific measures coming from it, and when will that | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
be? It is a very serious attempt to deal with the issue of smaller | :17:42. | :17:49. | |
fields with the decommissioning in the North Sea. It is bringing | :17:50. | :17:52. | |
forward a significant group of experts to look at how we can | :17:53. | :17:59. | |
maximise the take in terms of oil. Obviously from a Government point of | :18:00. | :18:02. | |
view in terms, you know, of ensuring that the industry can go on for as | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
long as is possible in the North Sea. And of course we will act on | :18:08. | :18:12. | |
the recommendations. We already took forward very significantly with the | :18:13. | :18:18. | |
?2.3 billion package that there has been over the last couple of years. | :18:19. | :18:22. | |
The recommendations and lobbying that we have had from the industry. | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
This is a really important industry, not just for Scotland, for the whole | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
of the UK, and we take it very, row seriously. What is the timescale for | :18:31. | :18:36. | |
this? If there are people running some of these small companies, it is | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
because they haven't paid a lot of tax in the past so they don't get | :18:40. | :18:43. | |
the full effect of tax benefits when it comes to decommissioning, and you | :18:44. | :18:47. | |
want to do something about that. If they are watching this now I'm | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
thinking, well, when we going to see specific measures announced? When is | :18:52. | :18:55. | |
that going to be? There is no reason for measures that are recommended to | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
be adopted as we move forward. We have heard from the Chancellor both | :19:01. | :19:07. | |
in the autumn and now that the main fiscal event will now be the autumn | :19:08. | :19:10. | |
Budget, as the Budget will be in the autumn. So there is no reason why | :19:11. | :19:14. | |
measures that come forward from this group cannot be brought forward in | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
this Budget. There is no reason why they cannot be brought forward | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
before them, actually, if specific things are identified... Before the | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
Budget or in the Budget? I don't see any reason why they can't be brought | :19:28. | :19:30. | |
forward before the Budget if there are specific things that require to | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
be done can be identified and agreed upon. One of the problems with the | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
new measures on National Insurance for the self-employed is that you | :19:40. | :19:44. | |
promised in your election manifesto not to do this. What the election | :19:45. | :19:50. | |
manifesto referenced was income tax and class one National Insurance | :19:51. | :19:58. | |
contributions. This relates to class or National Insurance contributions. | :19:59. | :20:01. | |
I don't want to get into a technical argument. We should read | :20:02. | :20:05. | |
Conservative manifesto is with a magnifying glass, should we? What | :20:06. | :20:09. | |
the manifesto was quite clear about was, in relation to income tax and | :20:10. | :20:13. | |
in relation to National Insurance contributions within the class one, | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
within the PAYE system more generally. This relates to class | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
four National Insurance companies, it has affected the self-employed | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
and we have set out the basis for doing that as fairness to ensure | :20:27. | :20:30. | |
that people doing the same job, getting roughly the same income and | :20:31. | :20:33. | |
doing the same. You will still be at use of breaking a manifesto pledge. | :20:34. | :20:40. | |
So you will store but used. What pledge would you like the manifesto | :20:41. | :20:46. | |
-- the SNP to break in their manifesto? I move forward in hope | :20:47. | :20:53. | |
rather than expectation on that, I think that it is a demonstration, | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
the benefits that Scotland gets from being part of the UK, I want to see | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
that money used to improve services. You have an open invitation to say | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
they should stop talking about another referendum, and you didn't | :21:07. | :21:11. | |
take it! We were referencing the Budget, Gordon. Of course I take any | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
opportunity to say to take the threat of another independence | :21:17. | :21:19. | |
referendum of the table. On a second prompting, thank you, David! | :21:20. | :21:21. | |
Let's get some economic analysis now. | :21:22. | :21:23. | |
Professor Graeme Roy from the Fraser of Allander Institute | :21:24. | :21:25. | |
at the University of Strathclyde has been crunching the numbers. | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
What flies out at you, Graeme? A couple of things are quite | :21:30. | :21:36. | |
interesting. Firstly, the big forecast upward revision for this | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
year is growth in 2017 up to 2%. That essentially the ABI have taken | :21:41. | :21:45. | |
up of economic performance over the next few years. Essentially the | :21:46. | :21:48. | |
economy end up actually back where we thought it was in the Autumn | :21:49. | :21:52. | |
Statement. So there is a bit more timing rather than actually any | :21:53. | :21:56. | |
strength in the overall economy. Do you think that reflects Brexit or | :21:57. | :22:01. | |
your expectations about Brexit? Two things, if you go back to the | :22:02. | :22:05. | |
forecast before Brexit, even under the OBR numbers predicted it was | :22:06. | :22:08. | |
smaller than it was prior to the referendum. The Brexit effect is | :22:09. | :22:14. | |
still there. Where we have done what we did previously, we have not | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
forecast much further wrote about what the Brexit situation could look | :22:19. | :22:21. | |
like, what the trade relationships could be like for the UK once | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
Article 50 is triggered. So there is a bit of almost Wei Tan see, because | :22:27. | :22:32. | |
we don't actually yet know what the settlement will be -- wait and see. | :22:33. | :22:37. | |
For people confuse like I am about some of this stuff, is it that no | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
matter how important Europe is, trade just isn't that important, and | :22:43. | :22:45. | |
it's going to make a huge difference to the GDP? You have to put it in | :22:46. | :22:51. | |
context. The vast majority of economic output a country produces | :22:52. | :22:55. | |
is produced domestic Rhiannon sold domestic league, and also other | :22:56. | :22:58. | |
trading partners that we have -- domestic output is sold domestic | :22:59. | :23:04. | |
league. It is a damper on growth in the long run, what that might mean | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
for things like productivity and skull migration etc. It is more that | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
the economy would be small in the future. A little bit smaller because | :23:12. | :23:18. | |
of that affects, but the long-term effects, as you say, could be, how | :23:19. | :23:22. | |
does limiting immigration affect productivity in the economy, for | :23:23. | :23:27. | |
example, how do tariffs affect not just what we pay for things but the | :23:28. | :23:31. | |
impulse to British industry. Very much so. You see that also, where | :23:32. | :23:34. | |
that comes through is in the borrowing figures for the next three | :23:35. | :23:38. | |
years as well. Again he has been able to rely on the fact that the | :23:39. | :23:42. | |
borrowing figures look better this year than they did in November. | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
Looking into what happens at the end of the decade, you are back exactly | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
where the OBR were forecasting back in November. There is an uplift this | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
year, but a substantial increase in borrowing predicted in November. | :23:57. | :23:59. | |
Brexit is still there, and the Government will be borrowing much | :24:00. | :24:02. | |
more over the next few years than we thought they were before the | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
referendum. Which is why balancing the Budget now seems to have been | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
officially put off into the never never. Yes, they had been thinking | :24:12. | :24:14. | |
about, George Osborne had been planning for a surplus of ?10 | :24:15. | :24:21. | |
billion by 2020, at the Government will still be borrowing. But they | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
will not be balancing even in the next Parliament. Exactly, further | :24:26. | :24:29. | |
consolidation or started is going to continue well into the 2020s. Oil | :24:30. | :24:33. | |
and gas, it is difficult talking about, he says some measures have | :24:34. | :24:40. | |
come forward even before the Budget. In terms of revenues, though, the | :24:41. | :24:44. | |
figures showed as a percentage of GDP, they are not expecting any | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
revenues right until the end of the forecast period, 2022. They are | :24:49. | :24:54. | |
expecting some revenues. ?1 billion, that is what they think will happen | :24:55. | :25:01. | |
in the 20s. In contrast to previous years where you have oil revenues of | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
?12 billion, you are really looking at essentially North Sea revenues no | :25:07. | :25:10. | |
longer really making a significant fiscal contribution to the UK | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
economy. A percentage of GDP evens out. And also there are costs. Some | :25:16. | :25:20. | |
of the big petroleum revenue tax receipts or in the negative, that | :25:21. | :25:23. | |
presumably reflects the commissioning, does it? Protected | :25:24. | :25:29. | |
revenues will actually be negative in 2016-17. And the rise becomes | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
more positive in the next few years. You are talking about hundreds of | :25:34. | :25:36. | |
millions of pounds rather than billions of pounds. The basic point | :25:37. | :25:42. | |
about this, though, is that in any debate over Scotland, whether it | :25:43. | :25:45. | |
stays part of the UK or whether it is independent, what it would have | :25:46. | :25:48. | |
money to spend on, it is not just that the oil prices have fallen a | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
bit. Because of decommissioning and the running out in the North Sea, | :25:53. | :26:01. | |
North Sea revenues are never going to be a particularly important | :26:02. | :26:03. | |
factor any more, they? Effectively, take them out of the debate. It is | :26:04. | :26:06. | |
highly unlikely you will get significant revenues now from the | :26:07. | :26:08. | |
North Sea. You are right, prices might recover, they might take a | :26:09. | :26:11. | |
while to recover, but you are looking up the field entering really | :26:12. | :26:15. | |
quite mature stage. So the actual production levels coming out are | :26:16. | :26:18. | |
actually going to be relatively smaller, can the new windfall. They | :26:19. | :26:22. | |
peaked in 1999 and have fallen since then -- continuing to fall. Once you | :26:23. | :26:26. | |
start going to decommissioning, then you start to offset the tax revenues | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
paid in the past, so it becomes that negative. What do you make of the | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
lip Amman? Was he boring for Britain like he wants to do?! -- of Philip | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
Hammond. As an economist, we are quite used to be boring! He does | :26:42. | :26:53. | |
manage to give of this are, move on, nothing to see here. The Budget was | :26:54. | :26:55. | |
arguably one of the most boring we have had in years. Grey, thank you | :26:56. | :26:57. | |
very much indeed. As usual, politicians have been | :26:58. | :26:59. | |
giving their reaction to the Budget. Our Westminster Correspondent David | :27:00. | :27:01. | |
Porter is with one of them. I'm sorry, David is not there. Let's | :27:02. | :27:12. | |
talk to Mike Tholen, head of upstream policy at Oil and Gas UK. | :27:13. | :27:16. | |
I'm sure that David Polter will be with an MP later on. What do you | :27:17. | :27:22. | |
make of the announcements on oil and gas? Were you hoping for something a | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
little bit more definite? I think we have had the good news that the | :27:27. | :27:29. | |
Treasury recognise the problem that we face, and it is one of trying to | :27:30. | :27:33. | |
get the market to work really well for buying and selling of assets in | :27:34. | :27:37. | |
the North Sea, and so from that point of view, to understand the | :27:38. | :27:39. | |
problem and offered to help resolve it is probably the best progress we | :27:40. | :27:44. | |
can see in this Budget. The problem is a bit technical. As I understand | :27:45. | :27:48. | |
it, the problem is that a lot of the fields which roamed by the oil | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
majors have been bought by small companies. They get tax relief and | :27:53. | :27:55. | |
decommissioning, but because they haven't owned them for ever, they | :27:56. | :27:59. | |
haven't paid a lot of tax, so there needs to be some mechanism where | :28:00. | :28:03. | |
they can get the full benefits of taking on decommissioning, is that | :28:04. | :28:07. | |
roughly it? Pretty much. The problem is that for many companies that have | :28:08. | :28:18. | |
on the field for a while, they see a different value from decommissioning | :28:19. | :28:20. | |
than the companies that might want to buy the field. What we are hoping | :28:21. | :28:24. | |
as we can get to a point where we can resolve that and make it easier | :28:25. | :28:26. | |
to buy and sell fields in the North Sea. Why is it advantageous to | :28:27. | :28:29. | |
encourage buying and selling of deals? Well, like in any market or | :28:30. | :28:31. | |
any business, you want a diversity of investors in the market trying to | :28:32. | :28:34. | |
do a diversity of things. And also it is mature, and in many cases some | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
of the majors are pursuing really exciting opportunities west of the | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
Shetlands and in deep and difficult waters. And maybe smaller investors | :28:43. | :28:46. | |
have better appetites for some of the fields and opportunities around | :28:47. | :28:51. | |
existing fields. Why is that? Is it because they don't have to make so | :28:52. | :28:55. | |
much money? For example, an oil field but it's one it is off running | :28:56. | :29:02. | |
out, BP or Gel, it is been at -- peanuts for them. | :29:03. | :29:11. | |
It is around appetite and where you can best put your resources. Some of | :29:12. | :29:18. | |
the companies are learning how to manage oil reserves late in life and | :29:19. | :29:25. | |
making a success out of that. I don't know if you could hear David | :29:26. | :29:30. | |
Mundell a few minutes ago, but he said this review, there might be | :29:31. | :29:37. | |
some actual measures that could be announced, either in the new budget | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
date in the autumn, or he said even before that, is it something you | :29:43. | :29:47. | |
would welcome? We would very much like the Treasury and the experts to | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
crack on with this. It is a problem we have all known about for quite | :29:52. | :29:57. | |
awhile. The longer we wait, you might hold deals that could shape | :29:58. | :30:00. | |
the investment and the future the North Sea. What do you think the | :30:01. | :30:06. | |
prospects are for activity in the North Sea over the next few years. | :30:07. | :30:10. | |
It has been an extremely difficult period over the last couple of | :30:11. | :30:15. | |
years, are things going to pick up or chant along at roughly the level | :30:16. | :30:21. | |
they are now? We have seen a transformation in the North Sea over | :30:22. | :30:27. | |
the last two years. We have seen companies raise their efficiency and | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
competitiveness and we have seen the fruits of that starting to be | :30:32. | :30:37. | |
delivered. We have seen production increasing by 15%. There is still a | :30:38. | :30:41. | |
need for further activity and further investment and that is why | :30:42. | :30:49. | |
we are looking to this Chancellor to attract investors to the North Sea. | :30:50. | :30:53. | |
As usual, politicians have been giving their reaction to the Budget. | :30:54. | :31:03. | |
What do you make of it? If you are one of the families who are | :31:04. | :31:10. | |
struggling, this budget does not thing. It does not think to track | :31:11. | :31:15. | |
all the rises of inflationary have been seeing. The price of tea and | :31:16. | :31:21. | |
butter has gone up by 15%. This will be worse when it comes to Brexit. | :31:22. | :31:27. | |
Why is the price of butter going to get worse as a result of Brexit? The | :31:28. | :31:34. | |
way imports and exports work, increased tariffs, we will have less | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
support for agriculture. We don't know any of that yet, do we? It is a | :31:40. | :31:45. | |
pretty safe bet those things will happen. We will see installation. | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
When people go into the supermarket, we will be spending a few quid extra | :31:51. | :31:54. | |
every week because of the increased price of food. It has already gone | :31:55. | :32:04. | |
up over the last three months. The Chancellor has done nothing to | :32:05. | :32:06. | |
recognise the impact of Brexit on normal people. But the OBR is not | :32:07. | :32:14. | |
forecasting any impacts from Brexit, and they are independent from the | :32:15. | :32:19. | |
government. You cannot then expect the government is so things will be | :32:20. | :32:25. | |
worse than the OBR are suggesting? Those are the GDP figures, it is the | :32:26. | :32:30. | |
price consumers will face when they go to the shop. People don't care | :32:31. | :32:37. | |
what the headline GDP figures are. I didn't see any, I must admit, I have | :32:38. | :32:42. | |
had time to look at the data, but the inflation forecasts were not | :32:43. | :32:46. | |
particularly high? Inflation has already started to bite. It is 2%, | :32:47. | :32:57. | |
isn't it? Inflation is about 2%. Can you hear me? Our new go. Inflation | :32:58. | :33:12. | |
is about 2%? In terms of inflation, if wages are not going, this is the | :33:13. | :33:18. | |
worst period we have seen for 70 years. According to the Chancellor, | :33:19. | :33:24. | |
wages are growing faster than inflation? According to the | :33:25. | :33:30. | |
Chancellor, but people are not feeling that. If you speak to people | :33:31. | :33:35. | |
in the street... I am sorry, you cannot say wages are declining and | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
then say it maybe they are going up faster than inflation but people are | :33:40. | :33:44. | |
not feeling it, it doesn't make sense. I didn't say wages were | :33:45. | :33:51. | |
declining, I said it was the lowest period of wage growth in 70 years. | :33:52. | :33:56. | |
The Chancellor is right, he has more people back in work and the | :33:57. | :34:04. | |
unemployment figures have increased, but the GDP figures are not helping | :34:05. | :34:08. | |
people at the bottom of the pile. Families will be feeling that. If | :34:09. | :34:13. | |
you ask people how are their budgets, how are they managing? That | :34:14. | :34:18. | |
is what they were said to, they are worrying and they cannot save and | :34:19. | :34:22. | |
this budget has done nothing to recognise that. More money for the | :34:23. | :34:25. | |
Scottish Government, you welcome that? It isn't really though is it? | :34:26. | :34:32. | |
Since 2010 that 11 we have had a real terms cut of 2.9 billion and | :34:33. | :34:39. | |
even for David Mundell to suggest we are getting 1 billion extra, it | :34:40. | :34:46. | |
doesn't touch the sides. He suggested ?350 million extra? Sorry, | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
I misheard him. It is a knock on effect of the Barnett formula, money | :34:52. | :34:56. | |
we will need to spend, but nothing in comparison to ?2.9 billion. We | :34:57. | :35:02. | |
will have to leave it there, my apologies you could not hear me. I | :35:03. | :35:06. | |
don't know what is going on behind you, but there is an incredible | :35:07. | :35:12. | |
racket. People concerned they are not getting their pensions, so they | :35:13. | :35:14. | |
are here protesting. Ray Perman and Dr Angela O'Hagan | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
are still with me. Oil and Gas UK, David Mundell said | :35:20. | :35:30. | |
there might be action before the budget, will it be OK? I don't think | :35:31. | :35:40. | |
it will amount to very much. We will see in the budget in November now. | :35:41. | :35:47. | |
It is quick for the review of experts to calculate tax incentives | :35:48. | :35:50. | |
that will make a real difference. I don't think it will amount to a huge | :35:51. | :35:57. | |
amount. What is your take on what Kirsty Blackman was saying against | :35:58. | :36:01. | |
incomes? Incomes at the moment I think are going up in real terms. | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
But there has been a long period where they have been stagnating or | :36:06. | :36:09. | |
falling, so where are we now on that front? Kirsty has just voted the ISS | :36:10. | :36:15. | |
figures pointing to stagnation, that is not just UK, put across Europe. | :36:16. | :36:25. | |
-- IFS. So I put two people's living standards alongside increases and | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
costs of living. Add to the structuring and hollowing out... But | :36:30. | :36:34. | |
that is not happening now, is it not the case real incomes are going up | :36:35. | :36:40. | |
now? Not really, if we look at the recent public sector pay awards. We | :36:41. | :36:46. | |
are still looking at freezes or stagnation across the public sector. | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
Again, majority of employees are women. Add to that, the changes in | :36:51. | :36:56. | |
employment contracts terms and conditions and so on. We are seeing | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
an increase in flexibility in the labour market, but that means zero | :37:01. | :37:05. | |
hours contracts, and reduction in working hours and there might be | :37:06. | :37:08. | |
more people in employment, we have seen the figures for women's figures | :37:09. | :37:14. | |
increase but we need to look at the character of those jobs. Precarious, | :37:15. | :37:20. | |
low pay, low skills. The figures show incomes are rising, so you are | :37:21. | :37:24. | |
saying it is misleading because of the composition of how this is | :37:25. | :37:29. | |
happening? When you look at household budgets increasing as a | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
result of wages, then what we are seeing is an increase of in work | :37:35. | :37:39. | |
poverty. People who are working, people who have jobs are amongst | :37:40. | :37:47. | |
those who are experiencing more poverty than previously. So we are | :37:48. | :37:51. | |
not seeing an increase in wages that is offsetting... One glaring | :37:52. | :37:58. | |
omission in that budget is there was some expectation the Chancellor | :37:59. | :38:01. | |
might announce something to mitigate the freeze in benefits. Because of | :38:02. | :38:07. | |
the just getting by people as Theresa May calls them? As far as I | :38:08. | :38:13. | |
could see, there wasn't anything at all? A number of things that were | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
flagged that will possibly coming in the budget that have not | :38:18. | :38:22. | |
materialise, more for the just managing, the jams as Theresa May | :38:23. | :38:25. | |
called them. Very little for them. The other one was the gig economy, | :38:26. | :38:31. | |
it was flagged perhaps the Chancellor would bring in some | :38:32. | :38:36. | |
measures to mitigate against zero hours contracts for example. There | :38:37. | :38:41. | |
was nothing on that. And the third, you remember Theresa May when she | :38:42. | :38:45. | |
became Prime Minister said she was going to do about fairness in the | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
workplace and particularly excess rises in executive pay. Nothing in | :38:51. | :38:58. | |
that either. Workers on the board... There was going to be workers on the | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
boards of companies, did she have a rush of blood to the head? I think | :39:04. | :39:09. | |
her idealism was quickly tempered by her colleagues and quickly | :39:10. | :39:13. | |
forgotten. Yes, but it might be a theme she wants to come back to | :39:14. | :39:17. | |
because that is the way the Conservatives want to position | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
themselves isn't it, Angela? By saying we may not share some of the | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
liberal values like Jeremy Corbyn, but we are the party for working | :39:27. | :39:30. | |
people and we will look to do something like that, but there was | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
very little of that in Philip Hammond's budget? There was nothing | :39:34. | :39:40. | |
for the people who are just about managing. Giving groups of people | :39:41. | :39:44. | |
names like that makes it easier to ignore them and move on. People who | :39:45. | :39:48. | |
are affected by the underinvestment in social care and the stripping out | :39:49. | :39:52. | |
of social care, they will be disappointed to see... There was a | :39:53. | :39:57. | |
shed load of money for social care in England? Not really, not in the | :39:58. | :40:02. | |
scheme of things of what is needed. It is not really what those who have | :40:03. | :40:08. | |
been campaigning and July in desperate need of social care, will | :40:09. | :40:13. | |
think. We have to move on, but that does need to be rethought, it is not | :40:14. | :40:22. | |
just about money is it? It is one of the impacts on the NHS because if | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
there is no place to go into adult care, he was talking particularly | :40:27. | :40:31. | |
about older people, they remain in hospital beds and that blocks of the | :40:32. | :40:36. | |
people coming in for emergency treatment or elective operations. | :40:37. | :40:39. | |
Not to scare people, Angela, the fact there is a review on this, we | :40:40. | :40:45. | |
might be asked to pay for it through an insurance scheme? The tax | :40:46. | :40:51. | |
giveaways and corporation tax were flag, a tax giveaway that could have | :40:52. | :40:55. | |
funded social care. We will be back with you later on. | :40:56. | :40:58. | |
Back to Westminster, and our correspondent David Porter | :40:59. | :41:00. | |
I do indeed. That MP is Iain Murray from Scottish Labour who has joined | :41:01. | :41:14. | |
me at a very lively College Green this afternoon. As far as Labour is | :41:15. | :41:20. | |
concerned, what is or not in this budget for Scotland? It was a budget | :41:21. | :41:28. | |
that we have not been said already that we have not heard already. Debt | :41:29. | :41:33. | |
will still increase. Crucially, the Chancellor didn't mention Brexit | :41:34. | :41:38. | |
once which is the biggest economic issue facing the entirety of the | :41:39. | :41:41. | |
country for a generation. In terms of Scottish workforce, the increases | :41:42. | :41:48. | |
to national insurance for the self-employed will be hard-hitting, | :41:49. | :41:51. | |
those people who drove the economy after the crash. Taxi drivers, | :41:52. | :41:56. | |
plumbers, joiners, builders, those workers who will be hard hit by this | :41:57. | :41:59. | |
budget and they are the drivers of the economy at the moment. The fact | :42:00. | :42:04. | |
the Chancellor is making it specifically about the | :42:05. | :42:07. | |
self-employed. It is not fair they get a better deal than others, they | :42:08. | :42:11. | |
use the services by the state so they should pay for them. | :42:12. | :42:15. | |
Self-employed people don't get holiday pay or sick pay. A whole | :42:16. | :42:21. | |
host of self-employed people forego by not being an employee. It is easy | :42:22. | :42:27. | |
to say they use services and don't contribute, they do. All of those | :42:28. | :42:32. | |
traditional self-employed people do. The government have forced people | :42:33. | :42:35. | |
into self-employment over recent years. Has been a massive explosion | :42:36. | :42:41. | |
of self-employed people, the government failed to transform the | :42:42. | :42:45. | |
economy the way they should have done in 2010. You are a UK | :42:46. | :42:49. | |
Government minister and you are saying since Theresa May became | :42:50. | :42:51. | |
Prime Minister, the Scottish Government has got more than ?1 | :42:52. | :42:56. | |
billion extra they were not banking on. They would argue it shows they | :42:57. | :43:00. | |
are looking after the union and they are doing a good by Scotland? That | :43:01. | :43:05. | |
is the way the Barnett formula works and the Labour Party has fought for | :43:06. | :43:10. | |
the Barnett formula because of the consequential is for Scotland. But | :43:11. | :43:15. | |
the key aspects in terms of some of the statistics Diks, the Scottish | :43:16. | :43:19. | |
economy growth still lags behind the United Kingdom. So the additional | :43:20. | :43:23. | |
money going to Scotland must be spent on improving productivity and | :43:24. | :43:27. | |
improving the Scottish economy. To do that, to take away the | :43:28. | :43:34. | |
uncertainty of a second independence referendum, at least up the level of | :43:35. | :43:39. | |
the UK, if not better. You mentioned it in your first answer, this is a | :43:40. | :43:44. | |
budget which has to be seen through the prism of Brexit? He didn't | :43:45. | :43:48. | |
mention Brexit, it is extraordinary it didn't come out of the mouth of | :43:49. | :43:52. | |
the Chancellor in a speech that was almost an hour. He has squirrelled | :43:53. | :43:58. | |
away a ?60 billion Brexit fund. It is a Brexit value fund because we | :43:59. | :44:02. | |
were told it would be wonderful and Rosie. It will cost 2% in growth | :44:03. | :44:08. | |
until 2020, and it will cost a huge amount in deficit and debt and he | :44:09. | :44:12. | |
has that to put away ?60 billion because of the Brexit headwinds. The | :44:13. | :44:16. | |
Chancellor should have said, for the benefit of the economy, I will tell | :44:17. | :44:20. | |
you what Brexit means to the United Kingdom economy and this is how we | :44:21. | :44:23. | |
will will solve it. First, he could have done something about EU | :44:24. | :44:27. | |
nationals, then he should have ploughed every penny into | :44:28. | :44:30. | |
investments at the country can be in a better position post Brexit. We | :44:31. | :44:39. | |
will have to leave it there. Thank you for your positions and | :44:40. | :44:41. | |
projection. For the moment, back to the studio. | :44:42. | :44:46. | |
It looks like you have got a personal demonstration against you! | :44:47. | :44:52. | |
I managed to annoy a lot of people in life, it looks like I have | :44:53. | :44:54. | |
annoyed a few more today! Philip Hammond told the Commons that | :44:55. | :45:14. | |
the current low taxes paid by self-employed workers were unfair. | :45:15. | :45:18. | |
It raises a net ?145 million per year. Mr Deputy Speaker, that is an | :45:19. | :45:27. | |
average of around 60p per week herself employed person in this | :45:28. | :45:33. | |
country. According to the Federation of Small Businesses, more than | :45:34. | :45:36. | |
250,000 people in Scotland are self-employed. | :45:37. | :45:38. | |
First of all, let's just get this straight, you are only affected by | :45:39. | :45:50. | |
this if you make ?16,000 per year or more? It is the slice of your income | :45:51. | :45:55. | |
that is between the lower earning band, which is about eight grand, | :45:56. | :46:02. | |
which up to the upper earnings limit which is rising to 45 grand from | :46:03. | :46:08. | |
next month. Who is going to be affected? What would you have to be | :46:09. | :46:12. | |
making before you are going to be affected by this? It is a | :46:13. | :46:16. | |
percentage. You are paying 9% at the moment on that slice of your income, | :46:17. | :46:20. | |
it is going to go up to 11% in two years' time. I did a very quick | :46:21. | :46:28. | |
calculation on this, and I think if everything stays the same, you will | :46:29. | :46:33. | |
probably talking about an extra ?740 at the top end of the spectrum. Is | :46:34. | :46:40. | |
that significant? Is that going to affect people in a significant way? | :46:41. | :46:44. | |
This is a big deal, you are right, a quarter of a million people in | :46:45. | :46:47. | |
Scotland are self-employed. To put it in the spectre, that is 80,000 | :46:48. | :46:54. | |
more than work in the NHS. And these are people who risk their homes, | :46:55. | :46:58. | |
they risk their assets, their savings, their family security and | :46:59. | :47:01. | |
everything just to go it alone and get out there and do something. It | :47:02. | :47:04. | |
is exactly the sort of people we should be backing rather than | :47:05. | :47:08. | |
singling out for such... Special treatment. I Kim section to the idea | :47:09. | :47:12. | |
that they are freeloading or getting something for nothing. -- I take | :47:13. | :47:16. | |
exception to the idea. Although you are paying less, we don't have | :47:17. | :47:21. | |
statutory sick pay or paternity leave or employment benefits. Philip | :47:22. | :47:25. | |
Hammond's arguments seem to be because of the state guaranteed | :47:26. | :47:30. | |
pension that in the past there was a reason because people had to pay | :47:31. | :47:33. | |
into pension funds and all the rest of it, but that reason is not there | :47:34. | :47:38. | |
any more. You reject that idea? There is still an awful lot that we | :47:39. | :47:41. | |
have to pay for. Whether or not it is the thing is that the state fund, | :47:42. | :47:46. | |
like maternity leave, or things that the state have told employers to | :47:47. | :47:51. | |
provide, like pension contributions, these are things which, regardless | :47:52. | :47:55. | |
of who is paying for them, self-employed individuals have to | :47:56. | :47:58. | |
draw out of their own pocket. Typically incomes among the | :47:59. | :48:00. | |
self-employed are not vast, and then it is going to have to be found from | :48:01. | :48:06. | |
somewhere. I think if the self-employed are going to start | :48:07. | :48:10. | |
paying more like employees, it is a reasonable question to ask if they | :48:11. | :48:13. | |
are not going to get the same sort of benefits. Do you have any idea | :48:14. | :48:18. | |
how much or what proportion of self-employed people in Scotland are | :48:19. | :48:26. | |
earning under 12 or ?15,000 per year? There is a big variation. Some | :48:27. | :48:29. | |
are earning very small amounts because it is a multiple income | :48:30. | :48:34. | |
source. There are others, about 10% of our members we reckon, and | :48:35. | :48:40. | |
between ?2000 and ?5,000 per week. I think the average is about 19,000 | :48:41. | :48:53. | |
per month. -- sorry, 1800 thousand -- ?1800 per month. The income | :48:54. | :48:59. | |
levels aren't massive, they are not generous. And it is the sort of | :49:00. | :49:06. | |
level of income where small increases, when you look at | :49:07. | :49:09. | |
everything else at the moment, really can make the difference. I do | :49:10. | :49:16. | |
wonder why, with this employment review done by Matthew Taylor, Wiebe | :49:17. | :49:19. | |
couldn't have waited to announce these changes. Thank you. | :49:20. | :49:21. | |
Back to Wesminster now, and David Porter. | :49:22. | :49:31. | |
Welcome back to College Green. Apologies for the lateness of | :49:32. | :49:37. | |
acknowledging Hugh, it is quite a noisy atmosphere here this | :49:38. | :49:40. | |
afternoon. We don't normally have this type of reaction to a Budget. | :49:41. | :49:44. | |
What do the Liberal Democrats in Scotland think of it? To tell me is | :49:45. | :49:50. | |
their spokesman Alistair Carmichael. Alistair, what does this Budget do | :49:51. | :49:54. | |
or not do for Scotland? The one thing you see coming out of this | :49:55. | :50:01. | |
Budget is just how out of touch this Conservative government, Philip | :50:02. | :50:03. | |
Hammond is the Chancellor of the Exchequer, really is. It is quite | :50:04. | :50:06. | |
incredible. This is his first opportunity to say something to the | :50:07. | :50:11. | |
sectors of our economy that really need reassurance since Theresa May's | :50:12. | :50:18. | |
Mansion House Speech on the subject of Brexit, determination to take out | :50:19. | :50:21. | |
of the Single Market, her willingness in walking away without | :50:22. | :50:25. | |
a deal. Whether it is that the City of London or the farmers and | :50:26. | :50:30. | |
fishermen in Orkney and Shetland, my constituency, he had absolutely | :50:31. | :50:34. | |
nothing to say. They are out of touch and they are out of ideas. | :50:35. | :50:38. | |
Realistically, what could he have said, when the negotiations haven't | :50:39. | :50:42. | |
even started yet? He could have made it very clear that he has a pathway, | :50:43. | :50:47. | |
a determination, as the financial services sector, for example, is not | :50:48. | :50:55. | |
going to be the edge of a cliff. There are farmers and fishermen who | :50:56. | :50:58. | |
rely on that access to the Single Market for their exports, they are | :50:59. | :51:02. | |
not going to be left at a competitive disadvantage or have a | :51:03. | :51:06. | |
20% tariff on their goods being sold into these markets in the future. | :51:07. | :51:09. | |
That is what they needed to hear from him today, and he had | :51:10. | :51:13. | |
absolutely nothing to say. But, you know, it was when he got on to other | :51:14. | :51:17. | |
areas. He was talking about National Insurance changes for the | :51:18. | :51:24. | |
self-employed, for example, that you really saw just how little | :51:25. | :51:27. | |
understanding he has of what life is like for people at the moment. On | :51:28. | :51:34. | |
areas like Uber and other companies that are basically abusing the rules | :51:35. | :51:38. | |
for the self-employed, he should be tackling them. He is instead | :51:39. | :51:44. | |
tackling the window cleaners and the other self-employed people who | :51:45. | :51:47. | |
struggle hard to make ends meet, and they are going to be clobbered again | :51:48. | :51:51. | |
as a result of this Budget today. You talk about him not acknowledging | :51:52. | :51:55. | |
the needs of agriculture and fishing and things like that. Yet he did | :51:56. | :51:59. | |
make a point of saying, we are going to work with the oil and gas | :52:00. | :52:03. | |
industry in Scotland, a large sector there to try and get as much out of | :52:04. | :52:10. | |
that as possible. As far as that sector was concerned, it was a case | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
of tomorrow and nothing today. What we got in fact was a promise that | :52:16. | :52:19. | |
had already been made in previous statements in previous Budgets. The | :52:20. | :52:22. | |
oil and gas industry came forward with a very reasonable and very well | :52:23. | :52:27. | |
thought out ask. Quite a detailed ask. There was absolutely no | :52:28. | :52:31. | |
reference to that today. Again, for the north-east of Scotland in | :52:32. | :52:34. | |
particular, that is an area where the need for support is absolutely | :52:35. | :52:40. | |
urgent. With every week that passes you see more companies in the supply | :52:41. | :52:45. | |
chain, not just the big majors but the supply chain across the | :52:46. | :52:48. | |
north-east, laying people off and closing down businesses. And the | :52:49. | :52:52. | |
Chancellor had absolutely nothing to say to them today. As far as this | :52:53. | :52:57. | |
Budget was concerned, it was treading water. He can't say too | :52:58. | :53:00. | |
much because he doesn't know what position he is going to be in in a | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
few months' time when the negotiations get underway. There are | :53:04. | :53:07. | |
whole reams of areas. I will pick one for you. Climate change, for | :53:08. | :53:12. | |
example, when he could have made a tremendous difference with a very | :53:13. | :53:14. | |
small amount of money. That is something that is not going to be | :53:15. | :53:18. | |
Brexit dependent. He could have come forward and told us how he is going | :53:19. | :53:26. | |
to see the development of wave and tidal power, for example, something | :53:27. | :53:28. | |
that is enormously important for our island communities. Again, the | :53:29. | :53:31. | |
silence was absolutely deafening. As the Carmichael, we have to leave it | :53:32. | :53:35. | |
there. Thank you for your perseverance with our friends behind | :53:36. | :53:39. | |
us -- Alistair Carmichael. From a very noisy and lively College Green, | :53:40. | :53:44. | |
back to you. I think it is your fans, David! I think they are | :53:45. | :53:48. | |
shouting acclamation! It's a nice thought, isn't it?,. | :53:49. | :53:55. | |
Let's get a final word from Ray Perman from | :53:56. | :53:57. | |
the David Hume Insititute, and Dr Angela O'Hagan | :53:58. | :53:59. | |
I think Philip Hammond mentioned Brexit at the beginning of his | :54:00. | :54:04. | |
speech, but he didn't mention it after that. No, as we pointed to the | :54:05. | :54:10. | |
other ways in which it seemed to be in a vacuum. I still enjoying the | :54:11. | :54:15. | |
very noisy women and think it is brilliant they have had such a | :54:16. | :54:19. | |
presence in the whole Budget discussion on International Women's | :54:20. | :54:23. | |
Day, yet again another political decision that has disadvantaged | :54:24. | :54:26. | |
women over the period. As far as Brexit is concerned, where are we on | :54:27. | :54:31. | |
that? And where are we on all of the questions around inequality's going | :54:32. | :54:37. | |
back to your earlier point, the government are positioning | :54:38. | :54:41. | |
themselves for ordinary people, the effects of Brexit will be very | :54:42. | :54:45. | |
significant ordinary people, not least the EU nationals, people who | :54:46. | :54:48. | |
have come here and created a living and their families here in this | :54:49. | :54:52. | |
country. Of course, what Philip Howard would say is, he himself and | :54:53. | :54:59. | |
the OBR were wrong. It simply isn't as bad as everybody says it was | :55:00. | :55:04. | |
going to be. It might be in the future, but as the figures right now | :55:05. | :55:07. | |
are rather confounding for those who said that Brexit would be a | :55:08. | :55:12. | |
disaster. Well, they are. But I think the OBR has already said, you | :55:13. | :55:18. | |
shouldn't, and the Chancellor echoed this, you shouldn't project that | :55:19. | :55:21. | |
into the future. This won't last. We are going to have a problem from | :55:22. | :55:26. | |
Brexit. The other thing about Brexit is, the Government wants to try and | :55:27. | :55:29. | |
start the negotiations, maybe as early as next week but certainly by | :55:30. | :55:34. | |
the end of the month. Is that they have a plan, but as Mike Tyson | :55:35. | :55:37. | |
memorably said, everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face, | :55:38. | :55:42. | |
you know! The Brexit negotiations are pretty unpredictable. We don't | :55:43. | :55:49. | |
know what the effect will be over the next two years on the economy. | :55:50. | :55:52. | |
And there could be ups and downs of things like the pound, for example. | :55:53. | :55:56. | |
Reports come out that some huge, massive impasse for example in | :55:57. | :55:59. | |
negotiations, we are going to have to brace ourselves. Like that. Yes, | :56:00. | :56:03. | |
we have to brace ourselves I think for all sorts of things, whatever | :56:04. | :56:09. | |
happens that exhausted usual level in Scotland, whether it makes it or | :56:10. | :56:17. | |
not. There are lots of unknowns at the moment. The general state of the | :56:18. | :56:25. | |
world economy, and the British economy, on a slightly more cheerful | :56:26. | :56:28. | |
note, we are not there. We might have the shadow of the recession, | :56:29. | :56:34. | |
but things are by and large getting back to something like the way they | :56:35. | :56:40. | |
were before 2007, aren't they? I think Graeme Morrice said earlier in | :56:41. | :56:44. | |
the programme, you know, most of the GDP we generate is domestic. So | :56:45. | :56:50. | |
there are problems in the outside world, we don't know about trade, | :56:51. | :56:54. | |
but it is not the whole economy. So the rest of it is doing reasonably | :56:55. | :56:58. | |
well at the moment, but there are problems, as we mentioned earlier, | :56:59. | :57:02. | |
consumer spending is slowing, consumers are borrowing, and that | :57:03. | :57:06. | |
can't go on for a very long time. So there are lots of difficulties | :57:07. | :57:09. | |
there. I think it is well for so saying some things about Scotland. | :57:10. | :57:14. | |
There wasn't much in the Budget that Scotland can change. So for example, | :57:15. | :57:20. | |
we now have in Scotland the ability to change income tax, but we don't | :57:21. | :57:23. | |
have the ability to change National Insurance contributions. So they | :57:24. | :57:28. | |
will just happen? They will just happen, and they are just another | :57:29. | :57:33. | |
form of income tax, in effect. That was very noticeable. You heard from, | :57:34. | :57:41. | |
what he cannot do, is go on looking on Holyrood's and say, can you not | :57:42. | :57:45. | |
implement it? Could they look at devolving that or would it cause | :57:46. | :57:49. | |
problems? I think as well you can maximise the powers that we have, | :57:50. | :57:53. | |
abusing our tax powers to generate tax. Sorry to cut you off, we're | :57:54. | :57:59. | |
going to have to leave it there. We are completely out of time. | :58:00. | :58:00. | |
And I'll be back this weekend for Sunday Politics Scotland. | :58:01. | :58:06. |