15/03/2017 Politics Scotland

Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland.

Coming up - a U-turn from the Chancellor on plans

to raise National Insurance for the self-employed.

And independence and the EU - we'll be looking at the polls

and trying to get to the bottom of what Scotland's place in Europe.

Where next for the Brexit negotiations - after

the First Minister announced on Monday that she wanted another

And what will Scotland's position be in those negotiations.

Charles Grant is director of the Centre for European Reform

and a member of Nicola Sturgeon's standing council on Europe

I know you weren't very optimistic about the proposals for Scotland to

be in the EU while staying in the UK? I thought they would report

produced in December was a noble effort to think legally,

constitutionally and politically how could this cake is stay in the

single market if Scotland leave the UK but it was very difficult to

conceive the circumstances in how it could succeed. Partly there are

legal problems if Scotland stake and England were to be different, it

would be difficult. Partly for political reasons. Spain would be

reluctant to give any special deals for Scotland in case the Catalans

asked for some special deal on their own so I didn't think it was going

to work very easily, the ideas put forward by the present Minister in

December. What about now, given what Nicola Sturgeon said earlier this

week, if there was an independence referendum before the Brexit

negotiations had finished and if Scotland voted for independence,

could it in any sense stay in the European Union or would it leave

with the rest of the UK and tough to rejoin? I'm afraid it is the latter,

because the other EU countries don't recognise any special status for

Scotland, supposing there was a referendum in December 2018, Britain

is still on the way out and Scotland are partners say in the commission

in Brussels say, they would have to apply to rejoin as an independent

sovereign state which would take a few years but probably not that many

years because your laws are all very -- already crossed the line but the

rest of the EU so I think it would be fairly easy. The Spanish would be

difficult but I think they would probably not veto Scottish

membership. But in that sense if Scotland is going to leave the

European Union come what may, it doesn't really from that point of

view matter very much when a referendum is. I think the exact

timing doesn't matter too much. I do speak that the Budget government but

the word here is that Theresa May is unlikely to allow Scotland to have a

referendum before Britain has left the EU. I don't know if that is the

official position. When will that be? I think it will leave on the 1st

of April 2019 exactly two years after Article 50 is invoked. That

would be the legal divorce but start but the future relationship and

trade agreement between the EU and UK will take many more years to

negotiate. You can speak for the British Government, but what does

the speculation? Is it that Theresa May will say you can't have a

referendum until Britain has formally left the European Union or

you can't have a referendum on the Britain has formally left and we

know what the new agreement with the EU between Britain and the EU is? I

think it will be after Britain has formally left and I suppose Mrs May

will try and square the circle by saying we will leave in 2019 April

with a divorce settlement and although we won't have negotiated

the future free-trade agreement we will have a kind of declaration of

the broad outlines of it so she will claim, Mrs May, and that we know

roughly what the future relationship will be although many of the most

difficult details will require many years of painstaking negotiation.

Let's reiterate your own statement. You don't speak that the British

Government, but Nicola Sturgeon took everyone by surprise this week but

it has also left the British Government an opportunity to reply,

so apart from on timing, what would you say because presumably Mrs May

would want to come up with some proposal that is along the lines of

we're not going to have a hard Brexit, we are not proposing that

much different from what you're proposing what are her options to

eat do you think? So far the Tory government in London has done little

to lean towards the Scottish desire to stay in the single market ought

to have some sort of special status within the UK, it is true that the

other 27 governments would not be very keen on it but Mrs May has not

done much to encourage the Scots. What Ms Sturgeon's declaration a

couple of days ago that was hugely for the Brexit talks because now

they will be some pressure on Mrs May to go for a softer deal. The

moment newly on the pressure is on her to go for a hard Brexit. They

organised a respected lobbies, the backbenchers, the Daily Mail, the

telegraph, all these newspapers pushing for a clean break with as

little connection between Britain and Europe as possible and know you

will have the Scottish nationalist government saying the break is very

clean and very hard that will increase support for independence in

Scotland, so in fact the new situation is some countervailing

pressure on Mrs May towards a more moderate exit and we don't know

exactly the details yet, much is still to be determined. It will be

quite hard but it could be quite hard or extremely hard and that is

still up for negotiation. Going back in this conversation a couple of

steps, if what you have just said is true and Mrs May will have pressure

not to go for as hardy Brexit as she might otherwise have gone for, will

we know that to be the case by April 2019? I think we probably will, it

is by able 2019 Britain will have completed its divorce settlement and

will be legally no member -- no longer a member of the EU and

although we won't have finished all the negotiations or the future

relationship concerning trade, security, energy, science,

universities etc, I think the general direction of travel of those

negotiations will be quite clear, because Mrs May wants to come up

with at least the broad heading, some sort of framework for the

future relationship so although for example whether or not the European

Court of Justice would have any say in what happens to Britain during

the transitional phase, we will know roughly the rights of EU citizens

living in Britain. We will have a pretty strong flavour of how hard

the Brexit is though not all the details. We have heard a lot this

week of what Mrs May and Miss Sturgeon wants, but the biggest

party is by far in this negotiation and the rest of the European Union,

are you getting any sense of how they are coming round to approaching

the negotiations with Britain, whether their mood is Britain has to

be seen to be punished otherwise there is no point in being a member

of the European Union or is it, let's try to come to some sort of

accommodation? It is both of those elements. For a start, most of them

are quite united. There is a strong line said by the French, the

Germans, the commission, the Council of ministers to be pretty tough on

the Brits. The Brits need to be seen to be doing less well outside the EU

than they did inside otherwise what is the point in staying in, others

might want to leave. There is a strong desire that economically the

British should not get such a good deal as they have now. On the other

hand they are not malicious and they don't want to punish us just for the

hell of it, but they do want to cooperate on Security and the no

Britain can contribute a lot to European defence, counterterrorism,

policing etc. They don't want to cut all ties. Once negotiations start,

divisions will emerge amongst the 27 and they would be so united. Thank

you for joining us. -- won't be so united.

The Chancellor has made a U-turn over plans to raise

National Insurance contributions for self-employed people -

which were announced in last week's Budget.

Philip Hammond has told Conservative MPs that while he thought

the measures were "fair", he's abandoned the idea

after criticism that the decision was in breach of a pledge given

Our Westminster correspondent David Porter is with us.

This isn't just a U-turn that could be fudged into not being a U-turn,

is it? It is almost the platonic ideal of a U-turn. You are quite

right. As gold this is pretty dramatic. You virtually hear the

tyres screeching around lunch time this morning when a letter from the

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond actually was published in

which he said that he would be reversing this tax change which was

only announced one week ago today in the Budget about this time he was

answering questions on the Budget and he was arguing that he plans to

increase National Insurance contributions for the self-employed

was an act of fairness to bring taxation in the line but also as

world that it would actually bring in much-needed revenue to help boost

social care in England and also alleviate some of the business taxes

in England. Knock-on consequences for Scotland through the Barnett

Formula. Today he has had to come back to House of Commons and said he

has had a think and listened to what people said and I am no longer going

to do it. It is a major U-turn and there is no way of dressing it up

any other way. Normally in budgets when things go wrong it emerges in

the days perhaps sometimes weeks after the Budget, this emerged very

quickly but normally there is a toing and froing and governments see

if they can get away with things if they can ride the storm out. There

was a huge amount of protest from backbench Tory MPs and Philip

Hammond I think is that he has gone back and looked at the Conservative

manifesto and seemed there was a commitment not to increase taxation

so he has decided that discretion is the better part of valour and he

will not go ahead with the increase. It raises a couple of interesting

questions, who was to blame and how in the future will Philip Hammond

now fill that gap in the Treasury's coppers? As I understand it, tell me

if I am wrong, what they are saying is the reason they are going back on

this is because for some unaccountable reason they didn't

realise it was in the manifesto not to do this, they are not conceding

on the principle of the thing, they are still saying that they think it

is the right thing to do to narrow the gap between self-employed and

employed people? Perhaps in the next manifesto they will just do that? It

is extraordinary. The Treasury is meant to be full of very important

people, intelligent important people who when it comes to economics have

pointy heads and can come up with all sorts of theories. You would

have thought that someone on the Treasury and indeed someone around

the Cabinet table when Pope Hammond explained it to his colleagues last

week with her said, -- Philip Hammond. But didn't we say something

completely different in our manifesto? He would have thought

someone would have checked the manifesto. Apparently in days gone

by the Treasury mandarins have tried to get this through before and

previous Conservative chancellors have said we will not do that

because we gave a commitment not to do that. Someone didn't join the

dots on this but on the wider question of wanting to equalise the

tax regimes between those employed by companies and those who are

self-employed, they do want to look at that again and there is a

full-bodied of work going on about reporting of that. A key point of

this is more people these days are self-employed so if you have a more

favourable tax regime for the self-employed they are growing in

number and potentially means the Treasury is losing a lot of revenue.

But they will now have to try and do is find a way somehow getting this

revenue back, probably in the autumn Budget. But my goodness me, they

will be under an awful lot of scrutiny. We will join you later. I

will not comment on the sunshine not because it is bad luck, but because

I am jealous. I am glad you are jealous. It is very nice at the

moment but let's not tempt fate. He just tempted fate!

To Holyrood now where MSPs are debating a report released

at the weekend from the Culture, Tourism and External Affairs

Committee on the implications of the EU referendum on Scotland.

The Committees' convenor is speaking - let's listen

I would also like to thank them for the many briefings they have

published on the impact of Brexit on individual sectors within Scotland

as well as the specific briefings that they have prepared for the

Committee. In conducting our enquiry we aim to hear from stakeholders

representing as many sectors as possible as well as individuals

affected by Brexit. I am very grateful to all those who gave

evidence to the Committee. It didn't our understanding and raised

awareness on the implications for Scotland of leaving the EU. We

received over 160 written submissions in response to our call

for evidence and those views are summarised in one of the reports we

are debating today, Brexit, of Scotland thinks. This shows that all

sectors of the economy with the notable expections of the catching

part of the fishing industry, Brexit is a challenge. Whether the

submissions were focused on justice and home affairs, further and higher

education, schools and skills, agriculture and food, climate change

and the environment, health and sport or equal opportunities and

human rights, the overwhelming message was one of concerned and the

risks that they identified as lying ahead.

There were fears about leaving the single market, losing access to EU

funding, the erosion of rights, the huge volume of legislation that

would need to be revised, environmental standards and losing

EU citizens to work in so many sectors. There was little optimism

or sense of opportunity in the evidence we proceed. The report is a

summary of Scottish interests and in the years ahead I call on the

Scottish and UK governments to recognise those views in all

discussions, negotiations and decisions relating to Scotland's

future. The report should be a reference point for identifying what

is in Scotland's interest. The committee also visited Brussels in

July last year and January this year. In July there were still a

sense of shock concerning the result of the referendum and uncertainty,

but by January the Prime Minister had made her intention to pursue a

hard Brexit known, an expert in EU policy were clear about the

challenges of the negotiations that lay ahead. These visits were

important to give us a perspective on the views from Brussels on the

negotiations. The visit in July contributed to our first report in

September, which summarised the initial evidence we heard and our

conclusion that access to the single market was vital to Scotland. The

visit in January extended our understanding of the negotiations to

agree a new treaty. In January we published a report, EU migration and

EU citizens' writes. The evidence this report brings together provides

valuable material on migration patterns and the contribution of EU

migrants to the Scottish economy and society. It also considers the

rights of the 181,000 EU citizens in Scotland who represent 3.4% of the

population, as well as the rights EU citizens enjoy as UK citizens. The

withdrawal from the EU has made all our future is uncertain but for no

group is this more felt than those EU citizens who live in Scotland and

Scots who have made their homes in Europe. With me is the former

Scottish shadow secretary, Margaret Curran. Did Nicola Sturgeon take you

by surprise? She did. If you asked me six months ago I would have said

I did not think a second independent reference would happen, then I

thought it was on the cards but I didn't expect it so tightly. I'm not

sure it's the right thing. Which way would you vote? I will vote no. I

cannot see any argument that persuades me the vote we had last

time was wrong, if anything I think it is frustration in Scotland, I'm

sure other people have different views but we have so many things to

focus on, it issues on education and health and now this for another two

years and and other fractious debate. A number of us who were

caught between the extremes of the Theresa May government and the

Scottish Government. To some extent the ball is in

Theresa May's court. What would you do if you were her? Would you say,

fine, go ahead, or would you say you can have your referendum but not

until Britain is out of the EU, so you know what you are voting on. I

cannot imagine a scenario where to reason they would give up any stake

in this negotiation. It would be difficult for her to say the

Scottish parliament couldn't have a referendum, I think she has a

reasonable point to safe if we are going to have this referendum we

have to be clear of the terms, clear of the implications so it is

reasonable to say, and Nicola Sturgeon has conceded that because

it is far away, it will be 2019, from belief -- probably, and we will

have some degree of knowledge of what Brexit looks like but I think

Theresa May will put a stake in trying to negotiate around the

timing, there is a bit of me, I have been in politics along time, I

didn't come into it to talk about a referendum, but about health and

education and improving people's lives. Tough luck! The wrong

generation, perhaps. Today we've got Ivan

McKee for the SNP. From the Scottish Conservatives,

it's Murdo Fraser. Richard Leonard is from Scottish

Labour and Patrick Harvie is Murdo Fraser, you heard us saying

about Theresa May's reaction to Nicola Sturgeon, should she just say

a few do or say you can have your referendum but not until after we

have negotiated with Europe? I don't think Theresa May need any advice

from me. But tell us what you think. She will come up with her view. I

don't think we need a referendum, there is not public demand, we have

been told by the SNP that there should only be a referendum if there

is demand for it but I do not see that, but if we are to have another

referendum we need to be clear what we are voting on, so we need to be

clear what Brexit means for Scotland and the UK together, and also if we

did vote for independence, what does that mean for our relationship with

the EU? We're not quite clear what the SNP are now saying in relation

to EU membership if Scotland became independent and if they are backing

off their previous position as it looks like they might be that an

independent Scotland would be a full member of the EU, why the aid to

writing Scotland out of the EU? What then is the point of an independence

referendum if we will not be in the EU after all? I'm sure Ivan McKee is

poised to answer that question. If you have another referendum, will

the SNP campaign for independence with Scotland to be a full member of

the EU? The SNP's position is bigger in favour of EU membership. Full

membership? What happens will depend on where we are in the Brexit

process. But your campaign for independence would be vote for

independence and Scotland will try to become a full member of the EU?

Our position is we are in favour of EU membership. What would you say to

people around your own party by Kenny MacAskill, who say that

doesn't make sense because they third of Yes supporters last time

voted to leave the EU and perhaps it isn't that attracted a place to

join, they say it would be better to argue for something like joining

after and being part of the single market, but what would you replied

the? We will campaign for an independent Scotland, that will be

the question on the ballot paper, we believe the people of Scotland are

best placed to take decisions to run this country. Richard Leonard, what

you think the British government's response should be? They will make

their own mind up, we haven't even had a vote in the Scottish

Parliament. I'm asking your opinion. We don't know what we are being

asked to vote on Ibn Edinburgh and until that vote we do not know what

the next stage will be, so I will not second-guess what the SNP will

put the fourth Parliament and whether there will be amendments to

it, on Monday the First Minister spoke about a specific timetable and

that would be contentious for some people including those in her own

party, we would oppose a second independence referendum because of

the divisive nature it brings with it. When you say amendments when she

puts this before Parliament, do you mean you will vote against it or do

you have some wizard wheeze up your sleeve? I don't how one this

afternoon but we will need to see the content of any think before

Parliament before deciding our response, but if there is a firm

proposal to trigger a second independence referendum, the

Scottish Labour Party will oppose that. Patrick Harvie, you will

demand no conditions but will say Ness, Nicola, I'll do anything you

like. Don't be silly, Gordon, you know the Greens are persistent in

opposing the SNP when we think they are wrong, we have a view that our

party members have voted in favour of independence and will continue to

take that forward. The timing is an important thing to discuss speakers

after autumn next year, every other European country will have its

chance to ratify a deal that has been negotiated by then pre-dash-mac

between the EU and the UK, why should it only be Scotland which

doesn't have a choice in that? The UK Government gets a choice on a

Brexit deal we did not choose, the EU gets a choice and every other

European country, I personally understand why many people regret

the fact this is coming back so soon but on that timescale there is

uncertainty and delaying it until after 2020 would give us four years

of uncertainty instead of two. Let's give Scotland a choice on the same

timescale that every other European country will have. Would you

encourage Ivan and his colleagues to stick by what he has just said, that

the campaign for independence should also campaign for Scotland to be a

full member of the EU? I hope the SNP doesn't change its policy on

supporting EU membership, that is for them to debate, I see no

appetite in the Greens to change from our policy of supporting EU

membership and I hope the others who spent the last couple of years

arguing that our place is strongest within the EU, that our social,

environmental and economic conditions are best met by

membership, will continue to advocate that if Scotland decides it

wants to make that path as an independent state. Murdo Fraser,

both Patrick Harvie and Ivan McKee have answered your questions,

haven't they? I don't think the SNP leadership is unequivocal on the

issue as Ivan has been, they have kept the door open because there are

a lot of people who voted yes in 2014, then voted leave in the EU

referendum and are now saying if the choice is to leave the UK but to go

back into the EU, they would rather stay in the UK, and the SNP

leadership are trying to ride two horses, trying to keep on board

people who are in that category but they cannot lose the justification

for a referendum because if they will not take us back into the EU,

how can they argue for a referendum? What would your pitch be this time?

We do not know if it will be yes or no in the same weight as last time

but the anti-independence campaign, if there is an agreement between the

British government and the EU, would you argue there are still some

access to the single market so there is not much difference between what

the Scottish Government is proposing and what is agreed between Britain

and Europe, so what is the point of a referendum? We want a strong

relationship with the EU for all British industry and residents, but

the UK domestic market is worth four times to the Scottish economy what

the EU single market is worth, so any suggestion we should prefer the

EU single market over our relationship with the rest of the UK

simply makes no sense in economic or in social terms, so our interest as

Scotland are better served being part of the UK, but I'm confident we

will have a positive deal for the whole UK with the rest of the EU.

Ivan McKee, that will be the challenge for you, even if people

agree with you on Brexit and how it has been handled, and how you prefer

to be a member of the EU, the problem will be the economics of

this, there is no oil money left and Britain is a bigger trade party of

Scotland than the EU. I think the UK or what is left out

of the UK after Brexit will be trading with the European Union.

Scotland will be part of the EU, an independent country that will be in

the single market... But that doesn't get you around the economic

problems, no oil and a huge deficit. It is icing on the cake according

to... Not according to Andrew Wilson. It was baked into the

economic forecast. Without oil Scotland GDP per head is the same as

the UK average and it is taxed the same as the UK average. The oil is

the icing on the cake. But do we want to allow the UK Government to

waste any more oil money still to come that they have wasted the last

?300 billion of tax revenues from the North Sea that they have had and

wasted rather than doing what no did... What exactly is Labour's

principal argument against independence these days? It can't be

that you would rather be in the European Union. We want to see unity

of people across the UK to secure progress of change and we want...

But why not unity across Europe? At the level where power lies. Even

under the SNP's 2014 prospectus a lot of economic power would still

live at a UK level, it is clear we need to intervene democratically at

the level where economic power lies and that is the UK. We think that is

where we need to be. Back from a socialist point of view why is it

better for Scotland to be part of a Britain moving the little England

than the part of the European Union and argue its case there? Because I

am not so pessimistic and you need to take the long view. This is not

just about a referendum on the current Conservative government, it

would be about where our place lies in the world and where we set with

our biggest trading partner and the economic monetary union we are part

of, so it is not simply a matter of whether we like Theresa May or not

or whether they climbed down today by the Chancellor was a good or bad

thing... It is about a much bigger question. Patrick Harvie, what do

you think? Is it a left wing or left of centre position from your point

of view? Presumably it is better to be in Europe but not but than in

Britain but not Europe? Is a great deal about the EU that can be

improved and that must be improved and it could be more democratic and

should be and can be and I think many European countries are moving

in that direction. But I do think many people if we get to the point

of a referendum will be looking at this as a choice of judgment on one

path towards membership of the EU and another towards a hard right

angry and isolationist Brexit Britain. We will be judging the UK

political landscape as it stands now with the Labour Party in disarray

and a rather more toxic tone of politics coming from the UK

political landscape. Thank you all very much. Let's get that swayed

back and the magnificent shot of all standing in a line there.

An academic survey suggests that support for independence

But the Scottish Social Attitudes survey also indicates

a relatively weak commitment to the European Union.

The report's author, Professor John Curtice,

says that could mean the timing of a further referendum is crucial.

He joins us from our studio in London now.

John, first ball we should make few caveats. The survey you did on this

presumably is several months ago now, is it? It was done in the

second half of last year. You are absolutely right. This is not a

survey designed to tell you what the weather was yesterday. It is much

more about trying to understand climate change. How the mood of

Scotland changes over the long run and it is an annual survey but the

point is we have at the same question on how Scotland should be

governed all the way back to 1999. It is the only time series we have

in Scotland by which we can measure how attitudes have changed and, yes,

the headline is that where as recently as 2012 support for

independence in response to this question was still only at 22% and

for much of the early years of devolution it was never much more

than between a quarter and a third, now it stands at 46%, so two years

on from the first referendum it seems pretty clear that the

long-term legacy of the first independence referendum is to

produce a Scotland that is much more divided on the constitutional

question and on the merits of independence than it was when this

whole process began back in 2012. Your findings on Europe were a

little bit surprising perhaps. It seems not quite as Euro enthusiastic

as we all assumed. I think that is probably the the survey that will

surprise people. The truth is we have been saying that magazine from

Question Time that Scotland is more Europhile than England but don't

exactly traits that are exaggerated. Previously I have suggested that one

of the reasons why the vote with the EU was so high in Scotland was not

so much to do with people's attitudes towards the EU but rather

for SNP supporters being in the EU was part of the independence person

and therefore they are putting part of the Independence. Crucially what

we're discovering is that many of the people who did vote to remain

did do so seemingly without a great deal of enthusiasm. The question we

have got here to get at this, it is a question where people are given a

range of options ranging from Britain should get out of the

European Union through to crucially, the most popular group, Britain

should remain in the EU Budget should try to reduce the power of

the European Union and then there are options that implied the EU

being more powerful. The second option is by far the most popular in

Scotland and if you combine that option with the idea of leaving, two

thirds of people in Scotland can now be classified as Eurosceptic where

in the early years of devolution it was no more than two fifths. So they

are turning more sceptical in the long run which we have seen south of

the border has also been going on, north of the border as well.

Crucially therefore that means a lot of Remain voters, over half, and

around two thirds of those Remain voters who voted no in 2014 who

should be the crucial swing group, the crucial group amongst whom

Nicola Sturgeon is presumably trying to win new builds on the back of the

Brexit issue, two thirds of that group are also saying the EU should

be less powerful so they don't therefore look like a group for whom

the EU is so important that they really like they're going to change

mind. The implications of this is having a independence referendum

that basically says but for independence so we can rejoin as

full members of the European Union isn't necessarily the cleverest way

to go about it. Indeed and I think that comes back to conversations we

have been having that that is one of the reasons why it sounds as though

the Scottish Government is not committing to the position that we

want to say to hang on the single market but it is not that we will

absolutely try to get Scotland back inside the EU and by also and

Patrick are be referred to this, the First Minister on Monday, why

already you can see the yes movement trying to widen the argument beyond

the question of Brexit, the Labour Party is helpless, if you stay

inside the UK we will be run by what is a nasty Tory government for ten

or 15 years, is that the teacher you want? They are already trying to

widen the argument beyond Brexit and G should appreciate that

irrespective of whether the referendum is held to Nicola

Sturgeon's timetable or later as the Prime Minister seems to be more

inclined, don't expect to be dominated by the issue of Europe and

not even from the yes side because I think they want to widen it. So,

your survey, opinion polls, we heard a couple yesterday, pro-independence

and anti-independence neck and neck. A couple since then, I think one was

about 53-47 and one is 57-43 in favour of staying in the UK. What

are we to make of this? Everyone was safe that is unmoved independence,

does that mean there is a move against it or does not mean

anything? That's why you always have to be very careful about building

too many sand castles on the sand of one or two opinion polls. The best

way I can describe it is that if you take all seven including the two so

morning holes that have been conducted since the Theresa May

speech at Lancaster house, the average is no 53, yes 47. If you go

back to the dozen polls were conducted in the first-half 20 16th

immediately before the EU referendum the average was, yes, you have

guessed this, no 53, yes 47. Therefore the grizzled message with

the opinion polls ties up with that the balance of public opinion in

Scotland so far at least has not been affected by the Brexit debate

and that yes Makro are going to pull ahead they will have to come the

other arguments. Those have switched from no to yes have switched on the

other direction and the net effect looks though it has been zero. It is

going to be another referendum and has to be a bit about Europe, you

can say we're going to have a referendum on leaving the UK because

the UK voted to leave Europe but it is not about Europe and we don't

want to rejoin. Indeed but I expect, I think that what the Scottish

Government will try to go for in the first instance is to try and remain

inside the single market possibly through membership... If the

referendum is by the spring of 2019 there is no way you can keep

Scotland continuously inside the EU. There is not the time. They will not

be independent by the time the UK manages to leave so even Nicola

Sturgeon's timetable doesn't make that possible but maybe Spain will

object less, it might be easier to get into the single market

relatively quickly. I am guessing but I wouldn't be entirely surprised

if the SNP say perhaps we will have a referendum at some point in the

future on whether or not an independent Scotland should become

and apply for membership of the European Union. That would be one

way of trying to assuage the concerns... You just want referendum

after referendum! The reason why the SNP think we have to have a

referendum before the country becomes independent is because quite

a while ago they said we need to park this issue because otherwise it

makes it difficult to win any elections. If there is another

issue, long that makes it different for the SNP to win the referendum

maybe they will want to park that issue as well. On that bombshell we

will have to leave it there stop thank you. Margaret Curran is still

with me. Referendum campaigns for now the forever. You think it makes

sense? I'm sure there is some thinking going on around that. It is

absurd to say that UK, it is such a monumental vote, that membership

matter so much we'll go back to referendum two and a half years

after... But they can say is that we want to stay in the single market. I

understand that. A route to doing that without being a full member of

the EU and we think Theresa May is going to rip Britain out and you

would be better off in an independent Scotland which is in the

single market and we could make up our mind on full membership of the

EU later. That is clearly the direction they are heading in

because the Scottish attitudes survey is very interesting because

this portrayal that I think will show itself, that Scotland is

somehow pro-European and very comfortable with being in the

European Union and all that brings and England is very difficult --

different and the difference is so profound that it is a big argument

to separate and the evidence from the survey suggests that isn't a

straightforward as people think it is and I do think you'll get the SNP

changing tactic about a lot but they still think there are signs that

people are saying we're are having another random on a full spammers

and you putting us through this again on a -- false premise. There

is a bit of it. I don't think that is good enough from the Government.

Your old lot are going to have a challenge. I think some of the

arguments, as I have said, the arguments he used to be part of the

European Union are very similar to the arguments you used to be part of

the UK. There are times when you have self-government and you make

your own decisions, there are times you share sovereignty and there are

times where it is in your economic and international interest to share

sovereignty and I think that is part of it. It is absolutely. It is in

Scotland's interest to share sovereignty with the European Union

and be part of the single market. We would love to come and they will

say, do the same with the UK, it is not an option any more. They voted

to get out of the EU and we do want to do that. I am not saying it is

exactly the same experience. If you get an argument that says you should

part of the European Union because they have got such a market with

them and you need to influence them, it is a bigger argument so say we

have got a shared market with the UK and they make decisions that

influence us and we need to be part of that. We will be back with you

later on. It was a pretty lively

at Prime Minister's Questions today, with the Chancellor's U-turn

on National Insurance for the self The Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said

the U-turn showed the UK Mr Speaker, I think

the Prime Minister should offer an apology for the chaos

that her Government has caused during the past week

and the stresses caused to the 4.8 million self-employed

people in this country. Her friend, the member for other

Conway, said so a week ago and it's time that she said so as well.

This measure, if carried through, will create

What is she going to do to fill that black hole?

If the right honourable gentleman is so concerned

about balancing the books, why is it Labour Party policy

to borrow half a trillion pounds and bankrupt Britain?

The Prime Minister can wag her finger as much as she likes.

Not discussions, an agreement with the Scottish Government

The Prime Minister promised an agreement.

Because does she not understand that if she does not secure an agreement

before triggering Article 50, if she is not prepared to negotiate

on behalf of the Scottish Government and secure membership of the single

European market, people in Scotland will have a referendum,

We have been in discussions with the Scottish Government

and other devolved administrations about the interests that they have.

As we prepare, as the United Kingdom government, to negotiate a deal

on behalf on the whole United Kingdom,

a deal which will be a good deal, not just for England,

Wales and Northern Ireland, but for the people

of Scotland as well, and as we go forward

I think the right honourable gentleman should remember this -

Scotland will be leaving the European Union.

It will leave the European Union either as a member

of the United Kingdom, or with independence,

it's very clear with the document that it would not be

What we need now is to unite, to come together as a country

and to ensure that we can get the best deal for the whole

Our First Minister was elected with the largest vote in Scottish

parliamentary history, on a manifesto pledge which stated

that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold

an independence referendum if there was a significant

and material change of circumstances like Scotland being taken out

My question to the Prime Minister is simple -

does she agree that Governments should stick to their manifesto

promises and if so, she cannot object to the First Minister

I, of course, recognise that there was a vote that took

place in the Scottish Parliament and the First Minister was returned

as the First Minister of a minority Government.

But I would refer the honourable lady to two other

In 2014 the Scottish people were given the opportunity to vote

as to whether or not they wished to remain in the United Kingdom.

They choose that Scotland should remain part of the United Kingdom.

And the other vote to take note of is that on June 23rd last year,

the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union,

To Westminster now, where our correspondent David Porter

I have, you didn't mention the weather but I will mention it, it is

a beautiful day and the sun shines on the righteous. Let me introduce

our panel, one Lord and three MPs, one Jeremy and three people called

Ian. Ian Murray for Labour, Iain Stewart for the Conservatives. Iain

Stewart, a tax that wasn't introduced at a policy that only

lasted a week. One heck of a U-turn today. At least it was quick. It was

the right decision. The Chancellor was addressing an important issue in

changes in National Insurance contributions, I wasn't especially

happy with the rise but we are still dealing with a budget deficit, I

think the Chancellor was right to listen to colleagues and make the

change quickly to remove any uncertainty and he's right to look

at the whole package in the round. Ian Murray, it seemed it was Tory

backbenchers who brought this change about. We voted against this change

in the budget last night so we opposed it. Only seven days from

John Stevenson standing here defending the National Insurance

rise, this is an embarrassing U-turn and the leaked letter to

backbenchers saying it was not a manifesto promise is fudging the

truth to them, this is insulting to self-employed people, the rule is

always the case that the loader Tory backbenchers cheer a budget, the

quicker it unravels. The pass the tax, the caravan tax, this is

embarrassing for the Chancellor and I bet he regrets talking about

Norman Lamont at the start of his speech. He said it was because it

was a broken manifesto commitment but paid 76 of the Conservative

Party manifesto commits to mint taint access to the single market. I

hope for a U-turn on that. Ian Blackford, the U-turn has been made

but there are still a question of how he fills that gap in the

coffers. He will still have to tax elsewhere. There is a ?2 billion

hole in the budget as a consequence of this, it unravelled overnight and

now we see the Prime Minister and the chance of coming to the deal,

this is no way to run a country and the Chancellor of the X said last

week they would be ?350 million extra for Scotland but as a

consequence of this, will our budget be cut? There is no indication he

will reduce the Barnet consequentials. He has not been able

to answer that question, there would have been consequentials as an

answer to this. This Government has lost control of the economy. We need

to invest in jobs, to show as the UK comes out of Brexit there is

confidence to invest in this country, that is not happening, it

is a failed Chancellor. Jeremy Purvis, I would not expect you to

defend the Chancellor had this idea of equalising between the

self-employed and the employed, it has some merit. The self-employed do

not have the same rights as those who are employed, there are still a

distinction between the two categories, we recognised that when

in coalition and focused on reducing the tax burden, and now the

Conservatives saw a chance to hammer what would have been up to 200,000

people across Scotland, a ?16 million tax increase this year and

Ruth Davidson endorsed at and double down on supporting it, so she needs

to apologise to people across Scotland for the Scottish

Conservatives supporting this, now the Government has admitted they had

broken a promise, they rightly corrected it but when the House of

Lords defeated their attempt to reduce support for those on tax

credit, they said it was a constitutional crisis. Now they have

acknowledged a big mistake. The tax issue the big issue of the day,

probably the issue of the week for everyone in Scottish politics, the

announcement by Nicola Sturgeon that she wants a second independence

referendum. From the UK Government's perspective done here, will you

allow the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum? That decision is

above my personal pay grade but there is no need for this

referendum. Nicola Sturgeon should roll back on what she has announced,

it is causing massive uncertainty to lots of people. The Scottish

business community are worried about this uncertainty. Do the sensible

thing and take this off the table. Ian Murray, you were against a

second referendum but it is coming. It looks like it is a matter of when

rather than if, but the two things that need to happen or that the

Scottish Parliament have to pass this. We do not need another

referendum, we had enough division, we need to start ringing the country

back together and you cannot compound what is a bad decision in

terms of Brexit with an even worse decision to rip Scotland out of the

UK, it doesn't make sense to turn your back on your biggest partner,

whether trade, cultural or political, and turned the so we will

vote against it next week and I hope the First Minister will do the

decent thing and get back to dealing with the day job in terms of the big

issues of the Scottish Parliament. Public services are crumbling, the

economy is lagging behind the rest of the UK, that should be her focus.

Your opponents say it is a distraction but also there seems to

be inconsistency and that the SNP says because of Brexit Scotland

needs another referendum but reports from Edinburgh suggest that an

independent Scotland made not want to go back into the EU immediately.

Our position is clear, we asked Westminster to respect the situation

and that the people of Scotland voted to remain in Europe last year

and what the reason may promised us, they would consult and take on board

the views of the devolved administrations in Northern Ireland,

Scotland and Wales, and the Government has refused to do that.

We will be dragged out of Europe against our will, a hard Tory Brexit

that will threaten jobs and prosperity, and its rich to hear

Conservatives talk about uncertainty because the OBR last week made it

clear that Brexit is causing that uncertainty. We are seeking to

protect jobs and investment and the best way of doing that is protecting

our place in the single market, making sure we retain membership of

the EU, it is about making sure there are jobs, prosperity and

growth and Westminster has to respect the wishes of the Scottish

people and I would say to Ian, there is a big question because if the

Scottish parliament votes for this, the people of Scotland should be

given that choice and Labour have to learn from last time about allying

themselves with Tories, that will deepen the damage to their own brand

in Scotland. If a second independence referendum happens,

from the Conservatives and from Labour's point of view, do you try

and coalesce around one message, one better to be a message or by those

days gone? That's on the assumption it will go ahead. Liberal Democrat

MSP 's are clear in their opposition to this because there is a world of

difference between where we are now and where we were before the

referendum. That referendum took place after cross sided --

cross-party agreement would said both sides would respect the result.

The SNP have breached that. That's not true. Now we have a proposition

that Scotland will not retain full EU membership. We have to leave it

there. I'm reminded about the gag about London buses, you wait ages

for one to come along and now with people called Ian, you wait ages for

one on College Green and then three come across at once.

He's in good form today! He's always inform. Philip Hammond...

Embarrassing. Not his best day but he will get away with this. It

depends on Tory internal politics. Clearly the knives were out for him,

and how he could possibly not know it was a manifesto... Everyone had

forgotten about it. He made a complete U-turn to get out of it. We

will have to leave it there. First Minister's Questions

is tomorrow at midday. Scotland is coming out

of the European Union But Alan Little asks whether

Brexit could break up Britain too. Which union do you want

to leave more? The British one

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