15/03/2017 Politics Scotland

Download Subtitles




Coverage of some of the day's debates in the Scottish Parliament.

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 15/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!



Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland.


Coming up - a U-turn from the Chancellor on plans


to raise National Insurance for the self-employed.


And independence and the EU - we'll be looking at the polls


and trying to get to the bottom of what Scotland's place in Europe.


Where next for the Brexit negotiations - after


the First Minister announced on Monday that she wanted another


And what will Scotland's position be in those negotiations.


Charles Grant is director of the Centre for European Reform


and a member of Nicola Sturgeon's standing council on Europe


I know you weren't very optimistic about the proposals for Scotland to


be in the EU while staying in the UK? I thought they would report


produced in December was a noble effort to think legally,


constitutionally and politically how could this cake is stay in the


single market if Scotland leave the UK but it was very difficult to


conceive the circumstances in how it could succeed. Partly there are


legal problems if Scotland stake and England were to be different, it


would be difficult. Partly for political reasons. Spain would be


reluctant to give any special deals for Scotland in case the Catalans


asked for some special deal on their own so I didn't think it was going


to work very easily, the ideas put forward by the present Minister in


December. What about now, given what Nicola Sturgeon said earlier this


week, if there was an independence referendum before the Brexit


negotiations had finished and if Scotland voted for independence,


could it in any sense stay in the European Union or would it leave


with the rest of the UK and tough to rejoin? I'm afraid it is the latter,


because the other EU countries don't recognise any special status for


Scotland, supposing there was a referendum in December 2018, Britain


is still on the way out and Scotland are partners say in the commission


in Brussels say, they would have to apply to rejoin as an independent


sovereign state which would take a few years but probably not that many


years because your laws are all very -- already crossed the line but the


rest of the EU so I think it would be fairly easy. The Spanish would be


difficult but I think they would probably not veto Scottish


membership. But in that sense if Scotland is going to leave the


European Union come what may, it doesn't really from that point of


view matter very much when a referendum is. I think the exact


timing doesn't matter too much. I do speak that the Budget government but


the word here is that Theresa May is unlikely to allow Scotland to have a


referendum before Britain has left the EU. I don't know if that is the


official position. When will that be? I think it will leave on the 1st


of April 2019 exactly two years after Article 50 is invoked. That


would be the legal divorce but start but the future relationship and


trade agreement between the EU and UK will take many more years to


negotiate. You can speak for the British Government, but what does


the speculation? Is it that Theresa May will say you can't have a


referendum until Britain has formally left the European Union or


you can't have a referendum on the Britain has formally left and we


know what the new agreement with the EU between Britain and the EU is? I


think it will be after Britain has formally left and I suppose Mrs May


will try and square the circle by saying we will leave in 2019 April


with a divorce settlement and although we won't have negotiated


the future free-trade agreement we will have a kind of declaration of


the broad outlines of it so she will claim, Mrs May, and that we know


roughly what the future relationship will be although many of the most


difficult details will require many years of painstaking negotiation.


Let's reiterate your own statement. You don't speak that the British


Government, but Nicola Sturgeon took everyone by surprise this week but


it has also left the British Government an opportunity to reply,


so apart from on timing, what would you say because presumably Mrs May


would want to come up with some proposal that is along the lines of


we're not going to have a hard Brexit, we are not proposing that


much different from what you're proposing what are her options to


eat do you think? So far the Tory government in London has done little


to lean towards the Scottish desire to stay in the single market ought


to have some sort of special status within the UK, it is true that the


other 27 governments would not be very keen on it but Mrs May has not


done much to encourage the Scots. What Ms Sturgeon's declaration a


couple of days ago that was hugely for the Brexit talks because now


they will be some pressure on Mrs May to go for a softer deal. The


moment newly on the pressure is on her to go for a hard Brexit. They


organised a respected lobbies, the backbenchers, the Daily Mail, the


telegraph, all these newspapers pushing for a clean break with as


little connection between Britain and Europe as possible and know you


will have the Scottish nationalist government saying the break is very


clean and very hard that will increase support for independence in


Scotland, so in fact the new situation is some countervailing


pressure on Mrs May towards a more moderate exit and we don't know


exactly the details yet, much is still to be determined. It will be


quite hard but it could be quite hard or extremely hard and that is


still up for negotiation. Going back in this conversation a couple of


steps, if what you have just said is true and Mrs May will have pressure


not to go for as hardy Brexit as she might otherwise have gone for, will


we know that to be the case by April 2019? I think we probably will, it


is by able 2019 Britain will have completed its divorce settlement and


will be legally no member -- no longer a member of the EU and


although we won't have finished all the negotiations or the future


relationship concerning trade, security, energy, science,


universities etc, I think the general direction of travel of those


negotiations will be quite clear, because Mrs May wants to come up


with at least the broad heading, some sort of framework for the


future relationship so although for example whether or not the European


Court of Justice would have any say in what happens to Britain during


the transitional phase, we will know roughly the rights of EU citizens


living in Britain. We will have a pretty strong flavour of how hard


the Brexit is though not all the details. We have heard a lot this


week of what Mrs May and Miss Sturgeon wants, but the biggest


party is by far in this negotiation and the rest of the European Union,


are you getting any sense of how they are coming round to approaching


the negotiations with Britain, whether their mood is Britain has to


be seen to be punished otherwise there is no point in being a member


of the European Union or is it, let's try to come to some sort of


accommodation? It is both of those elements. For a start, most of them


are quite united. There is a strong line said by the French, the


Germans, the commission, the Council of ministers to be pretty tough on


the Brits. The Brits need to be seen to be doing less well outside the EU


than they did inside otherwise what is the point in staying in, others


might want to leave. There is a strong desire that economically the


British should not get such a good deal as they have now. On the other


hand they are not malicious and they don't want to punish us just for the


hell of it, but they do want to cooperate on Security and the no


Britain can contribute a lot to European defence, counterterrorism,


policing etc. They don't want to cut all ties. Once negotiations start,


divisions will emerge amongst the 27 and they would be so united. Thank


you for joining us. -- won't be so united.


The Chancellor has made a U-turn over plans to raise


National Insurance contributions for self-employed people -


which were announced in last week's Budget.


Philip Hammond has told Conservative MPs that while he thought


the measures were "fair", he's abandoned the idea


after criticism that the decision was in breach of a pledge given


Our Westminster correspondent David Porter is with us.


This isn't just a U-turn that could be fudged into not being a U-turn,


is it? It is almost the platonic ideal of a U-turn. You are quite


right. As gold this is pretty dramatic. You virtually hear the


tyres screeching around lunch time this morning when a letter from the


Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond actually was published in


which he said that he would be reversing this tax change which was


only announced one week ago today in the Budget about this time he was


answering questions on the Budget and he was arguing that he plans to


increase National Insurance contributions for the self-employed


was an act of fairness to bring taxation in the line but also as


world that it would actually bring in much-needed revenue to help boost


social care in England and also alleviate some of the business taxes


in England. Knock-on consequences for Scotland through the Barnett


Formula. Today he has had to come back to House of Commons and said he


has had a think and listened to what people said and I am no longer going


to do it. It is a major U-turn and there is no way of dressing it up


any other way. Normally in budgets when things go wrong it emerges in


the days perhaps sometimes weeks after the Budget, this emerged very


quickly but normally there is a toing and froing and governments see


if they can get away with things if they can ride the storm out. There


was a huge amount of protest from backbench Tory MPs and Philip


Hammond I think is that he has gone back and looked at the Conservative


manifesto and seemed there was a commitment not to increase taxation


so he has decided that discretion is the better part of valour and he


will not go ahead with the increase. It raises a couple of interesting


questions, who was to blame and how in the future will Philip Hammond


now fill that gap in the Treasury's coppers? As I understand it, tell me


if I am wrong, what they are saying is the reason they are going back on


this is because for some unaccountable reason they didn't


realise it was in the manifesto not to do this, they are not conceding


on the principle of the thing, they are still saying that they think it


is the right thing to do to narrow the gap between self-employed and


employed people? Perhaps in the next manifesto they will just do that? It


is extraordinary. The Treasury is meant to be full of very important


people, intelligent important people who when it comes to economics have


pointy heads and can come up with all sorts of theories. You would


have thought that someone on the Treasury and indeed someone around


the Cabinet table when Pope Hammond explained it to his colleagues last


week with her said, -- Philip Hammond. But didn't we say something


completely different in our manifesto? He would have thought


someone would have checked the manifesto. Apparently in days gone


by the Treasury mandarins have tried to get this through before and


previous Conservative chancellors have said we will not do that


because we gave a commitment not to do that. Someone didn't join the


dots on this but on the wider question of wanting to equalise the


tax regimes between those employed by companies and those who are


self-employed, they do want to look at that again and there is a


full-bodied of work going on about reporting of that. A key point of


this is more people these days are self-employed so if you have a more


favourable tax regime for the self-employed they are growing in


number and potentially means the Treasury is losing a lot of revenue.


But they will now have to try and do is find a way somehow getting this


revenue back, probably in the autumn Budget. But my goodness me, they


will be under an awful lot of scrutiny. We will join you later. I


will not comment on the sunshine not because it is bad luck, but because


I am jealous. I am glad you are jealous. It is very nice at the


moment but let's not tempt fate. He just tempted fate!


To Holyrood now where MSPs are debating a report released


at the weekend from the Culture, Tourism and External Affairs


Committee on the implications of the EU referendum on Scotland.


The Committees' convenor is speaking - let's listen


I would also like to thank them for the many briefings they have


published on the impact of Brexit on individual sectors within Scotland


as well as the specific briefings that they have prepared for the


Committee. In conducting our enquiry we aim to hear from stakeholders


representing as many sectors as possible as well as individuals


affected by Brexit. I am very grateful to all those who gave


evidence to the Committee. It didn't our understanding and raised


awareness on the implications for Scotland of leaving the EU. We


received over 160 written submissions in response to our call


for evidence and those views are summarised in one of the reports we


are debating today, Brexit, of Scotland thinks. This shows that all


sectors of the economy with the notable expections of the catching


part of the fishing industry, Brexit is a challenge. Whether the


submissions were focused on justice and home affairs, further and higher


education, schools and skills, agriculture and food, climate change


and the environment, health and sport or equal opportunities and


human rights, the overwhelming message was one of concerned and the


risks that they identified as lying ahead.


There were fears about leaving the single market, losing access to EU


funding, the erosion of rights, the huge volume of legislation that


would need to be revised, environmental standards and losing


EU citizens to work in so many sectors. There was little optimism


or sense of opportunity in the evidence we proceed. The report is a


summary of Scottish interests and in the years ahead I call on the


Scottish and UK governments to recognise those views in all


discussions, negotiations and decisions relating to Scotland's


future. The report should be a reference point for identifying what


is in Scotland's interest. The committee also visited Brussels in


July last year and January this year. In July there were still a


sense of shock concerning the result of the referendum and uncertainty,


but by January the Prime Minister had made her intention to pursue a


hard Brexit known, an expert in EU policy were clear about the


challenges of the negotiations that lay ahead. These visits were


important to give us a perspective on the views from Brussels on the


negotiations. The visit in July contributed to our first report in


September, which summarised the initial evidence we heard and our


conclusion that access to the single market was vital to Scotland. The


visit in January extended our understanding of the negotiations to


agree a new treaty. In January we published a report, EU migration and


EU citizens' writes. The evidence this report brings together provides


valuable material on migration patterns and the contribution of EU


migrants to the Scottish economy and society. It also considers the


rights of the 181,000 EU citizens in Scotland who represent 3.4% of the


population, as well as the rights EU citizens enjoy as UK citizens. The


withdrawal from the EU has made all our future is uncertain but for no


group is this more felt than those EU citizens who live in Scotland and


Scots who have made their homes in Europe. With me is the former


Scottish shadow secretary, Margaret Curran. Did Nicola Sturgeon take you


by surprise? She did. If you asked me six months ago I would have said


I did not think a second independent reference would happen, then I


thought it was on the cards but I didn't expect it so tightly. I'm not


sure it's the right thing. Which way would you vote? I will vote no. I


cannot see any argument that persuades me the vote we had last


time was wrong, if anything I think it is frustration in Scotland, I'm


sure other people have different views but we have so many things to


focus on, it issues on education and health and now this for another two


years and and other fractious debate. A number of us who were


caught between the extremes of the Theresa May government and the


Scottish Government. To some extent the ball is in


Theresa May's court. What would you do if you were her? Would you say,


fine, go ahead, or would you say you can have your referendum but not


until Britain is out of the EU, so you know what you are voting on. I


cannot imagine a scenario where to reason they would give up any stake


in this negotiation. It would be difficult for her to say the


Scottish parliament couldn't have a referendum, I think she has a


reasonable point to safe if we are going to have this referendum we


have to be clear of the terms, clear of the implications so it is


reasonable to say, and Nicola Sturgeon has conceded that because


it is far away, it will be 2019, from belief -- probably, and we will


have some degree of knowledge of what Brexit looks like but I think


Theresa May will put a stake in trying to negotiate around the


timing, there is a bit of me, I have been in politics along time, I


didn't come into it to talk about a referendum, but about health and


education and improving people's lives. Tough luck! The wrong


generation, perhaps. Today we've got Ivan


McKee for the SNP. From the Scottish Conservatives,


it's Murdo Fraser. Richard Leonard is from Scottish


Labour and Patrick Harvie is Murdo Fraser, you heard us saying


about Theresa May's reaction to Nicola Sturgeon, should she just say


a few do or say you can have your referendum but not until after we


have negotiated with Europe? I don't think Theresa May need any advice


from me. But tell us what you think. She will come up with her view. I


don't think we need a referendum, there is not public demand, we have


been told by the SNP that there should only be a referendum if there


is demand for it but I do not see that, but if we are to have another


referendum we need to be clear what we are voting on, so we need to be


clear what Brexit means for Scotland and the UK together, and also if we


did vote for independence, what does that mean for our relationship with


the EU? We're not quite clear what the SNP are now saying in relation


to EU membership if Scotland became independent and if they are backing


off their previous position as it looks like they might be that an


independent Scotland would be a full member of the EU, why the aid to


writing Scotland out of the EU? What then is the point of an independence


referendum if we will not be in the EU after all? I'm sure Ivan McKee is


poised to answer that question. If you have another referendum, will


the SNP campaign for independence with Scotland to be a full member of


the EU? The SNP's position is bigger in favour of EU membership. Full


membership? What happens will depend on where we are in the Brexit


process. But your campaign for independence would be vote for


independence and Scotland will try to become a full member of the EU?


Our position is we are in favour of EU membership. What would you say to


people around your own party by Kenny MacAskill, who say that


doesn't make sense because they third of Yes supporters last time


voted to leave the EU and perhaps it isn't that attracted a place to


join, they say it would be better to argue for something like joining


after and being part of the single market, but what would you replied


the? We will campaign for an independent Scotland, that will be


the question on the ballot paper, we believe the people of Scotland are


best placed to take decisions to run this country. Richard Leonard, what


you think the British government's response should be? They will make


their own mind up, we haven't even had a vote in the Scottish


Parliament. I'm asking your opinion. We don't know what we are being


asked to vote on Ibn Edinburgh and until that vote we do not know what


the next stage will be, so I will not second-guess what the SNP will


put the fourth Parliament and whether there will be amendments to


it, on Monday the First Minister spoke about a specific timetable and


that would be contentious for some people including those in her own


party, we would oppose a second independence referendum because of


the divisive nature it brings with it. When you say amendments when she


puts this before Parliament, do you mean you will vote against it or do


you have some wizard wheeze up your sleeve? I don't how one this


afternoon but we will need to see the content of any think before


Parliament before deciding our response, but if there is a firm


proposal to trigger a second independence referendum, the


Scottish Labour Party will oppose that. Patrick Harvie, you will


demand no conditions but will say Ness, Nicola, I'll do anything you


like. Don't be silly, Gordon, you know the Greens are persistent in


opposing the SNP when we think they are wrong, we have a view that our


party members have voted in favour of independence and will continue to


take that forward. The timing is an important thing to discuss speakers


after autumn next year, every other European country will have its


chance to ratify a deal that has been negotiated by then pre-dash-mac


between the EU and the UK, why should it only be Scotland which


doesn't have a choice in that? The UK Government gets a choice on a


Brexit deal we did not choose, the EU gets a choice and every other


European country, I personally understand why many people regret


the fact this is coming back so soon but on that timescale there is


uncertainty and delaying it until after 2020 would give us four years


of uncertainty instead of two. Let's give Scotland a choice on the same


timescale that every other European country will have. Would you


encourage Ivan and his colleagues to stick by what he has just said, that


the campaign for independence should also campaign for Scotland to be a


full member of the EU? I hope the SNP doesn't change its policy on


supporting EU membership, that is for them to debate, I see no


appetite in the Greens to change from our policy of supporting EU


membership and I hope the others who spent the last couple of years


arguing that our place is strongest within the EU, that our social,


environmental and economic conditions are best met by


membership, will continue to advocate that if Scotland decides it


wants to make that path as an independent state. Murdo Fraser,


both Patrick Harvie and Ivan McKee have answered your questions,


haven't they? I don't think the SNP leadership is unequivocal on the


issue as Ivan has been, they have kept the door open because there are


a lot of people who voted yes in 2014, then voted leave in the EU


referendum and are now saying if the choice is to leave the UK but to go


back into the EU, they would rather stay in the UK, and the SNP


leadership are trying to ride two horses, trying to keep on board


people who are in that category but they cannot lose the justification


for a referendum because if they will not take us back into the EU,


how can they argue for a referendum? What would your pitch be this time?


We do not know if it will be yes or no in the same weight as last time


but the anti-independence campaign, if there is an agreement between the


British government and the EU, would you argue there are still some


access to the single market so there is not much difference between what


the Scottish Government is proposing and what is agreed between Britain


and Europe, so what is the point of a referendum? We want a strong


relationship with the EU for all British industry and residents, but


the UK domestic market is worth four times to the Scottish economy what


the EU single market is worth, so any suggestion we should prefer the


EU single market over our relationship with the rest of the UK


simply makes no sense in economic or in social terms, so our interest as


Scotland are better served being part of the UK, but I'm confident we


will have a positive deal for the whole UK with the rest of the EU.


Ivan McKee, that will be the challenge for you, even if people


agree with you on Brexit and how it has been handled, and how you prefer


to be a member of the EU, the problem will be the economics of


this, there is no oil money left and Britain is a bigger trade party of


Scotland than the EU. I think the UK or what is left out


of the UK after Brexit will be trading with the European Union.


Scotland will be part of the EU, an independent country that will be in


the single market... But that doesn't get you around the economic


problems, no oil and a huge deficit. It is icing on the cake according


to... Not according to Andrew Wilson. It was baked into the


economic forecast. Without oil Scotland GDP per head is the same as


the UK average and it is taxed the same as the UK average. The oil is


the icing on the cake. But do we want to allow the UK Government to


waste any more oil money still to come that they have wasted the last


?300 billion of tax revenues from the North Sea that they have had and


wasted rather than doing what no did... What exactly is Labour's


principal argument against independence these days? It can't be


that you would rather be in the European Union. We want to see unity


of people across the UK to secure progress of change and we want...


But why not unity across Europe? At the level where power lies. Even


under the SNP's 2014 prospectus a lot of economic power would still


live at a UK level, it is clear we need to intervene democratically at


the level where economic power lies and that is the UK. We think that is


where we need to be. Back from a socialist point of view why is it


better for Scotland to be part of a Britain moving the little England


than the part of the European Union and argue its case there? Because I


am not so pessimistic and you need to take the long view. This is not


just about a referendum on the current Conservative government, it


would be about where our place lies in the world and where we set with


our biggest trading partner and the economic monetary union we are part


of, so it is not simply a matter of whether we like Theresa May or not


or whether they climbed down today by the Chancellor was a good or bad


thing... It is about a much bigger question. Patrick Harvie, what do


you think? Is it a left wing or left of centre position from your point


of view? Presumably it is better to be in Europe but not but than in


Britain but not Europe? Is a great deal about the EU that can be


improved and that must be improved and it could be more democratic and


should be and can be and I think many European countries are moving


in that direction. But I do think many people if we get to the point


of a referendum will be looking at this as a choice of judgment on one


path towards membership of the EU and another towards a hard right


angry and isolationist Brexit Britain. We will be judging the UK


political landscape as it stands now with the Labour Party in disarray


and a rather more toxic tone of politics coming from the UK


political landscape. Thank you all very much. Let's get that swayed


back and the magnificent shot of all standing in a line there.


An academic survey suggests that support for independence


But the Scottish Social Attitudes survey also indicates


a relatively weak commitment to the European Union.


The report's author, Professor John Curtice,


says that could mean the timing of a further referendum is crucial.


He joins us from our studio in London now.


John, first ball we should make few caveats. The survey you did on this


presumably is several months ago now, is it? It was done in the


second half of last year. You are absolutely right. This is not a


survey designed to tell you what the weather was yesterday. It is much


more about trying to understand climate change. How the mood of


Scotland changes over the long run and it is an annual survey but the


point is we have at the same question on how Scotland should be


governed all the way back to 1999. It is the only time series we have


in Scotland by which we can measure how attitudes have changed and, yes,


the headline is that where as recently as 2012 support for


independence in response to this question was still only at 22% and


for much of the early years of devolution it was never much more


than between a quarter and a third, now it stands at 46%, so two years


on from the first referendum it seems pretty clear that the


long-term legacy of the first independence referendum is to


produce a Scotland that is much more divided on the constitutional


question and on the merits of independence than it was when this


whole process began back in 2012. Your findings on Europe were a


little bit surprising perhaps. It seems not quite as Euro enthusiastic


as we all assumed. I think that is probably the the survey that will


surprise people. The truth is we have been saying that magazine from


Question Time that Scotland is more Europhile than England but don't


exactly traits that are exaggerated. Previously I have suggested that one


of the reasons why the vote with the EU was so high in Scotland was not


so much to do with people's attitudes towards the EU but rather


for SNP supporters being in the EU was part of the independence person


and therefore they are putting part of the Independence. Crucially what


we're discovering is that many of the people who did vote to remain


did do so seemingly without a great deal of enthusiasm. The question we


have got here to get at this, it is a question where people are given a


range of options ranging from Britain should get out of the


European Union through to crucially, the most popular group, Britain


should remain in the EU Budget should try to reduce the power of


the European Union and then there are options that implied the EU


being more powerful. The second option is by far the most popular in


Scotland and if you combine that option with the idea of leaving, two


thirds of people in Scotland can now be classified as Eurosceptic where


in the early years of devolution it was no more than two fifths. So they


are turning more sceptical in the long run which we have seen south of


the border has also been going on, north of the border as well.


Crucially therefore that means a lot of Remain voters, over half, and


around two thirds of those Remain voters who voted no in 2014 who


should be the crucial swing group, the crucial group amongst whom


Nicola Sturgeon is presumably trying to win new builds on the back of the


Brexit issue, two thirds of that group are also saying the EU should


be less powerful so they don't therefore look like a group for whom


the EU is so important that they really like they're going to change


mind. The implications of this is having a independence referendum


that basically says but for independence so we can rejoin as


full members of the European Union isn't necessarily the cleverest way


to go about it. Indeed and I think that comes back to conversations we


have been having that that is one of the reasons why it sounds as though


the Scottish Government is not committing to the position that we


want to say to hang on the single market but it is not that we will


absolutely try to get Scotland back inside the EU and by also and


Patrick are be referred to this, the First Minister on Monday, why


already you can see the yes movement trying to widen the argument beyond


the question of Brexit, the Labour Party is helpless, if you stay


inside the UK we will be run by what is a nasty Tory government for ten


or 15 years, is that the teacher you want? They are already trying to


widen the argument beyond Brexit and G should appreciate that


irrespective of whether the referendum is held to Nicola


Sturgeon's timetable or later as the Prime Minister seems to be more


inclined, don't expect to be dominated by the issue of Europe and


not even from the yes side because I think they want to widen it. So,


your survey, opinion polls, we heard a couple yesterday, pro-independence


and anti-independence neck and neck. A couple since then, I think one was


about 53-47 and one is 57-43 in favour of staying in the UK. What


are we to make of this? Everyone was safe that is unmoved independence,


does that mean there is a move against it or does not mean


anything? That's why you always have to be very careful about building


too many sand castles on the sand of one or two opinion polls. The best


way I can describe it is that if you take all seven including the two so


morning holes that have been conducted since the Theresa May


speech at Lancaster house, the average is no 53, yes 47. If you go


back to the dozen polls were conducted in the first-half 20 16th


immediately before the EU referendum the average was, yes, you have


guessed this, no 53, yes 47. Therefore the grizzled message with


the opinion polls ties up with that the balance of public opinion in


Scotland so far at least has not been affected by the Brexit debate


and that yes Makro are going to pull ahead they will have to come the


other arguments. Those have switched from no to yes have switched on the


other direction and the net effect looks though it has been zero. It is


going to be another referendum and has to be a bit about Europe, you


can say we're going to have a referendum on leaving the UK because


the UK voted to leave Europe but it is not about Europe and we don't


want to rejoin. Indeed but I expect, I think that what the Scottish


Government will try to go for in the first instance is to try and remain


inside the single market possibly through membership... If the


referendum is by the spring of 2019 there is no way you can keep


Scotland continuously inside the EU. There is not the time. They will not


be independent by the time the UK manages to leave so even Nicola


Sturgeon's timetable doesn't make that possible but maybe Spain will


object less, it might be easier to get into the single market


relatively quickly. I am guessing but I wouldn't be entirely surprised


if the SNP say perhaps we will have a referendum at some point in the


future on whether or not an independent Scotland should become


and apply for membership of the European Union. That would be one


way of trying to assuage the concerns... You just want referendum


after referendum! The reason why the SNP think we have to have a


referendum before the country becomes independent is because quite


a while ago they said we need to park this issue because otherwise it


makes it difficult to win any elections. If there is another


issue, long that makes it different for the SNP to win the referendum


maybe they will want to park that issue as well. On that bombshell we


will have to leave it there stop thank you. Margaret Curran is still


with me. Referendum campaigns for now the forever. You think it makes


sense? I'm sure there is some thinking going on around that. It is


absurd to say that UK, it is such a monumental vote, that membership


matter so much we'll go back to referendum two and a half years


after... But they can say is that we want to stay in the single market. I


understand that. A route to doing that without being a full member of


the EU and we think Theresa May is going to rip Britain out and you


would be better off in an independent Scotland which is in the


single market and we could make up our mind on full membership of the


EU later. That is clearly the direction they are heading in


because the Scottish attitudes survey is very interesting because


this portrayal that I think will show itself, that Scotland is


somehow pro-European and very comfortable with being in the


European Union and all that brings and England is very difficult --


different and the difference is so profound that it is a big argument


to separate and the evidence from the survey suggests that isn't a


straightforward as people think it is and I do think you'll get the SNP


changing tactic about a lot but they still think there are signs that


people are saying we're are having another random on a full spammers


and you putting us through this again on a -- false premise. There


is a bit of it. I don't think that is good enough from the Government.


Your old lot are going to have a challenge. I think some of the


arguments, as I have said, the arguments he used to be part of the


European Union are very similar to the arguments you used to be part of


the UK. There are times when you have self-government and you make


your own decisions, there are times you share sovereignty and there are


times where it is in your economic and international interest to share


sovereignty and I think that is part of it. It is absolutely. It is in


Scotland's interest to share sovereignty with the European Union


and be part of the single market. We would love to come and they will


say, do the same with the UK, it is not an option any more. They voted


to get out of the EU and we do want to do that. I am not saying it is


exactly the same experience. If you get an argument that says you should


part of the European Union because they have got such a market with


them and you need to influence them, it is a bigger argument so say we


have got a shared market with the UK and they make decisions that


influence us and we need to be part of that. We will be back with you


later on. It was a pretty lively


at Prime Minister's Questions today, with the Chancellor's U-turn


on National Insurance for the self The Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said


the U-turn showed the UK Mr Speaker, I think


the Prime Minister should offer an apology for the chaos


that her Government has caused during the past week


and the stresses caused to the 4.8 million self-employed


people in this country. Her friend, the member for other


Conway, said so a week ago and it's time that she said so as well.


This measure, if carried through, will create


What is she going to do to fill that black hole?


If the right honourable gentleman is so concerned


about balancing the books, why is it Labour Party policy


to borrow half a trillion pounds and bankrupt Britain?


The Prime Minister can wag her finger as much as she likes.


Not discussions, an agreement with the Scottish Government


The Prime Minister promised an agreement.


Because does she not understand that if she does not secure an agreement


before triggering Article 50, if she is not prepared to negotiate


on behalf of the Scottish Government and secure membership of the single


European market, people in Scotland will have a referendum,


We have been in discussions with the Scottish Government


and other devolved administrations about the interests that they have.


As we prepare, as the United Kingdom government, to negotiate a deal


on behalf on the whole United Kingdom,


a deal which will be a good deal, not just for England,


Wales and Northern Ireland, but for the people


of Scotland as well, and as we go forward


I think the right honourable gentleman should remember this -


Scotland will be leaving the European Union.


It will leave the European Union either as a member


of the United Kingdom, or with independence,


it's very clear with the document that it would not be


What we need now is to unite, to come together as a country


and to ensure that we can get the best deal for the whole


Our First Minister was elected with the largest vote in Scottish


parliamentary history, on a manifesto pledge which stated


that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold


an independence referendum if there was a significant


and material change of circumstances like Scotland being taken out


My question to the Prime Minister is simple -


does she agree that Governments should stick to their manifesto


promises and if so, she cannot object to the First Minister


I, of course, recognise that there was a vote that took


place in the Scottish Parliament and the First Minister was returned


as the First Minister of a minority Government.


But I would refer the honourable lady to two other


In 2014 the Scottish people were given the opportunity to vote


as to whether or not they wished to remain in the United Kingdom.


They choose that Scotland should remain part of the United Kingdom.


And the other vote to take note of is that on June 23rd last year,


the people of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union,


To Westminster now, where our correspondent David Porter


I have, you didn't mention the weather but I will mention it, it is


a beautiful day and the sun shines on the righteous. Let me introduce


our panel, one Lord and three MPs, one Jeremy and three people called


Ian. Ian Murray for Labour, Iain Stewart for the Conservatives. Iain


Stewart, a tax that wasn't introduced at a policy that only


lasted a week. One heck of a U-turn today. At least it was quick. It was


the right decision. The Chancellor was addressing an important issue in


changes in National Insurance contributions, I wasn't especially


happy with the rise but we are still dealing with a budget deficit, I


think the Chancellor was right to listen to colleagues and make the


change quickly to remove any uncertainty and he's right to look


at the whole package in the round. Ian Murray, it seemed it was Tory


backbenchers who brought this change about. We voted against this change


in the budget last night so we opposed it. Only seven days from


John Stevenson standing here defending the National Insurance


rise, this is an embarrassing U-turn and the leaked letter to


backbenchers saying it was not a manifesto promise is fudging the


truth to them, this is insulting to self-employed people, the rule is


always the case that the loader Tory backbenchers cheer a budget, the


quicker it unravels. The pass the tax, the caravan tax, this is


embarrassing for the Chancellor and I bet he regrets talking about


Norman Lamont at the start of his speech. He said it was because it


was a broken manifesto commitment but paid 76 of the Conservative


Party manifesto commits to mint taint access to the single market. I


hope for a U-turn on that. Ian Blackford, the U-turn has been made


but there are still a question of how he fills that gap in the


coffers. He will still have to tax elsewhere. There is a ?2 billion


hole in the budget as a consequence of this, it unravelled overnight and


now we see the Prime Minister and the chance of coming to the deal,


this is no way to run a country and the Chancellor of the X said last


week they would be ?350 million extra for Scotland but as a


consequence of this, will our budget be cut? There is no indication he


will reduce the Barnet consequentials. He has not been able


to answer that question, there would have been consequentials as an


answer to this. This Government has lost control of the economy. We need


to invest in jobs, to show as the UK comes out of Brexit there is


confidence to invest in this country, that is not happening, it


is a failed Chancellor. Jeremy Purvis, I would not expect you to


defend the Chancellor had this idea of equalising between the


self-employed and the employed, it has some merit. The self-employed do


not have the same rights as those who are employed, there are still a


distinction between the two categories, we recognised that when


in coalition and focused on reducing the tax burden, and now the


Conservatives saw a chance to hammer what would have been up to 200,000


people across Scotland, a ?16 million tax increase this year and


Ruth Davidson endorsed at and double down on supporting it, so she needs


to apologise to people across Scotland for the Scottish


Conservatives supporting this, now the Government has admitted they had


broken a promise, they rightly corrected it but when the House of


Lords defeated their attempt to reduce support for those on tax


credit, they said it was a constitutional crisis. Now they have


acknowledged a big mistake. The tax issue the big issue of the day,


probably the issue of the week for everyone in Scottish politics, the


announcement by Nicola Sturgeon that she wants a second independence


referendum. From the UK Government's perspective done here, will you


allow the Scottish Parliament to hold a referendum? That decision is


above my personal pay grade but there is no need for this


referendum. Nicola Sturgeon should roll back on what she has announced,


it is causing massive uncertainty to lots of people. The Scottish


business community are worried about this uncertainty. Do the sensible


thing and take this off the table. Ian Murray, you were against a


second referendum but it is coming. It looks like it is a matter of when


rather than if, but the two things that need to happen or that the


Scottish Parliament have to pass this. We do not need another


referendum, we had enough division, we need to start ringing the country


back together and you cannot compound what is a bad decision in


terms of Brexit with an even worse decision to rip Scotland out of the


UK, it doesn't make sense to turn your back on your biggest partner,


whether trade, cultural or political, and turned the so we will


vote against it next week and I hope the First Minister will do the


decent thing and get back to dealing with the day job in terms of the big


issues of the Scottish Parliament. Public services are crumbling, the


economy is lagging behind the rest of the UK, that should be her focus.


Your opponents say it is a distraction but also there seems to


be inconsistency and that the SNP says because of Brexit Scotland


needs another referendum but reports from Edinburgh suggest that an


independent Scotland made not want to go back into the EU immediately.


Our position is clear, we asked Westminster to respect the situation


and that the people of Scotland voted to remain in Europe last year


and what the reason may promised us, they would consult and take on board


the views of the devolved administrations in Northern Ireland,


Scotland and Wales, and the Government has refused to do that.


We will be dragged out of Europe against our will, a hard Tory Brexit


that will threaten jobs and prosperity, and its rich to hear


Conservatives talk about uncertainty because the OBR last week made it


clear that Brexit is causing that uncertainty. We are seeking to


protect jobs and investment and the best way of doing that is protecting


our place in the single market, making sure we retain membership of


the EU, it is about making sure there are jobs, prosperity and


growth and Westminster has to respect the wishes of the Scottish


people and I would say to Ian, there is a big question because if the


Scottish parliament votes for this, the people of Scotland should be


given that choice and Labour have to learn from last time about allying


themselves with Tories, that will deepen the damage to their own brand


in Scotland. If a second independence referendum happens,


from the Conservatives and from Labour's point of view, do you try


and coalesce around one message, one better to be a message or by those


days gone? That's on the assumption it will go ahead. Liberal Democrat


MSP 's are clear in their opposition to this because there is a world of


difference between where we are now and where we were before the


referendum. That referendum took place after cross sided --


cross-party agreement would said both sides would respect the result.


The SNP have breached that. That's not true. Now we have a proposition


that Scotland will not retain full EU membership. We have to leave it


there. I'm reminded about the gag about London buses, you wait ages


for one to come along and now with people called Ian, you wait ages for


one on College Green and then three come across at once.


He's in good form today! He's always inform. Philip Hammond...


Embarrassing. Not his best day but he will get away with this. It


depends on Tory internal politics. Clearly the knives were out for him,


and how he could possibly not know it was a manifesto... Everyone had


forgotten about it. He made a complete U-turn to get out of it. We


will have to leave it there. First Minister's Questions


is tomorrow at midday. Scotland is coming out


of the European Union But Alan Little asks whether


Brexit could break up Britain too. Which union do you want


to leave more? The British one


or the European one? and given us a chance to be part


of the BBC's News Team. Young people


from all over the country have been getting involved


in BBC School Report. We've been doing interviews


about news and sport, and some of us have


even made our own news bulletins. we've been telling the stories


that matter to us. and given us a chance to be part


of the BBC's News Team. and read and watch our reports


online and across BBC News.