Browse content similar to 19/04/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland. We are expecting a vote in | :00:22. | :00:27. | |
the House of Commons shortly, where MPs are expected to back a snap | :00:28. | :00:30. | |
election on June the 8th after a lively debate. She is painting | :00:31. | :00:37. | |
herself as the prisoner of the Lib Dems, who apparently have threatened | :00:38. | :00:39. | |
to grind government to a standstill. Mr Speaker, there are nine of them | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
and they managed to vote three different ways an Article 50. Good | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
afternoon. Yesterday, Theresa May surprised the country in announcing | :00:50. | :00:55. | |
a snap general election for June the 8th. Today, MPs have been debating a | :00:56. | :00:59. | |
motion calling for the election and they are due to vote shortly. In a | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
moment, we will speak to Brian Taylor at Holyrood, but first, we go | :01:04. | :01:09. | |
to Westminster and David Porter. There is no question that this will | :01:10. | :01:15. | |
pass, is there? None whatsoever, but over the last couple of years I have | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
made predictions to do with politics which have been proved inaccurate, | :01:20. | :01:23. | |
but I'm pretty confident that, in a few minutes, we will find out that | :01:24. | :01:28. | |
MPs have backed Theresa May in her bid for aid in early election. She | :01:29. | :01:36. | |
needs two thirds of the House of Commons, 430 MPs. If it comes to a | :01:37. | :01:41. | |
vote, they have to back her on that. She has the support of the | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
Conservatives, as you'd expect, the support of Labour and the Lib Dems. | :01:45. | :01:49. | |
The SNP have said they will abstain. They say they will do nothing to | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
forestall an early general election but they are not going to help | :01:53. | :01:56. | |
Theresa May on it. The way the maths is working out, there is very little | :01:57. | :02:00. | |
doubt that she will get the backing of MPs. It may, and I stress may, | :02:01. | :02:05. | |
not even go to a vote if nobody objects when the debate concludes. | :02:06. | :02:12. | |
David, don't go away. Apparently they are voting now but we will be | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
back in a moment Brian Taylor is at Holyrood. Brian, the First Minister | :02:17. | :02:22. | |
has been in London today with a message for Theresa May, hasn't she? | :02:23. | :02:26. | |
Yes, and it was a fairly extensive message. She was meeting with the | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
MPs, preparing for that election to come on the understanding, as David | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
says, that it is all but done and dusted, although the result is yet | :02:36. | :02:39. | |
to be announced. They focus on Nicola Sturgeon's comment to the | :02:40. | :02:47. | |
effect that opposition to the Conservatives would crumble to dust. | :02:48. | :02:49. | |
That is pretty much the same argument Nicola Sturgeon has been | :02:50. | :02:54. | |
producing for several weeks, saying that the opposition of the | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
Conservatives to holding a referendum now or in the near future | :02:58. | :03:01. | |
was unsustainable. It is basically just heightened language with regard | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
to that. Prior to that comment about the independence referendum, | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
opposition crumble into dust, there is a long preamble in which Nicola | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
Sturgeon isn't talking about independence at all, but the primary | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
function of the SNP at this election being, as she sees it, to counter | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
Tory austerity and what she sees as a Conservative heart Brexit. Why? | :03:24. | :03:25. | |
Because the primary purpose of an election is to be a constituency MP, | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
and Nicola Sturgeon is countering the offer of the UK Government. | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
Second point, she doesn't want to make this a wraparound up on a | :03:36. | :03:42. | |
wraparound. Why? The SNP currently hold 56 out of 59 Scottish seats. -- | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
she doesn't want to make this a referendum on a referendum. They | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
have to do even better than that to force a referendum, to match that to | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
insure a referendum is still on the table, and that is a very high bar | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
and she will not want to do that. She will say that a big vote for the | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
SNP makes it more challenging for the Conservatives but, you know | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
what, note that point, that she is focusing first up on the economy and | :04:08. | :04:14. | |
an Brexit. Because of what you have said, apart from possibly the | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
Conservatives, maybe the Liberal Democrats? Is there anything really | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
in this for any of the parties in Scotland? Because, as you've said, | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
the SNP think, even if they use a few seats, the Unionist parties will | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
presumably say, more than 50% of people voted against another | :04:34. | :04:36. | |
referendum. Labour, well, we all know their problems Ukip, pretty | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
marginal here. Lib Dems, will they be hoping to do something? The | :04:42. | :04:48. | |
Tories? The Lib Dems will be hoping to do rather a lot, both in Scotland | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
and across the UK. A sort of mirrored version of what the | :04:53. | :04:54. | |
Conservatives did at the last Holyrood election. Ruth Davidson | :04:55. | :05:00. | |
managed to allocate to herself a large, substantial section of the | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
prounion vote. She said, we are Tory, but we are a union party but | :05:05. | :05:10. | |
we don't have to look over our shoulders and concern ourselves with | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
questions and doubt. We are the Unionist party but she managed to | :05:15. | :05:17. | |
get a fair chunk of the vote as a. What the Lib Dems will do in this | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
election, particularly in England but also in Scotland, will say, we | :05:23. | :05:26. | |
are the pro-EU party, we want Scotland to be in the UK and we want | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
the UK to be in the EU. Nearly 50% of the electorate voted for Britain | :05:31. | :05:35. | |
to be in the EU. The Liberal Democrats hope they can persuade | :05:36. | :05:41. | |
people to come into a common position of pro-EU support. They | :05:42. | :05:45. | |
hope to do that more generally. In Scotland, the Tories' position is to | :05:46. | :05:51. | |
say, if the SNP fallback, if the Tory vote rises substantially, that | :05:52. | :05:55. | |
perhaps eases the pressure for an independence referendum, and their | :05:56. | :05:57. | |
view would be that it strengthens the union. I think Nicola Sturgeon | :05:58. | :06:03. | |
is careful not to go into a head-to-head battle on those | :06:04. | :06:06. | |
grounds, simply because the bar is so high, because they hold 56 out of | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
59 seats. B put the same point you, David, on a UK level. -- let me put | :06:13. | :06:18. | |
the same point but you can see what is in it for the Conservatives, they | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
think they can win, you can see what it is in it for Tim Farron, because | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
he thinks that the Lib Dems could revive by coming the pro-remain | :06:26. | :06:31. | |
party, but for Ukip and Labour, is there really anything for them to | :06:32. | :06:34. | |
look forward to? Is a rather elegant way of saying, and turkeys vote for | :06:35. | :06:41. | |
Christmas? No, normally they don't. For the Labour Party, there is a | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
problem. Although they are in dire straits, they are still the | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
principal opposition at Westminster, and it would, I think, have been | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
extraordinary if the principal opposition party had an opportunity | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
to call for a general election and said, actually, we don't fancy one, | :06:59. | :07:01. | |
go on doing what you are going to do. To that extent, Theresa May at | :07:02. | :07:08. | |
Jeremy Corbyn -- Jeremy Corbyn into a bit of a corner. I think Ukip have | :07:09. | :07:13. | |
a very real problems. They had a very charismatic leader who is now | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
no longer the leader in recent by-elections, they haven't got the | :07:18. | :07:19. | |
traction they would have wanted. They had great hopes for the north | :07:20. | :07:25. | |
of England and the Midlands. It now appears, with Brexit, that the | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
Conservatives feel that they can win some of those seats over from Labour | :07:30. | :07:34. | |
and, perhaps, people who were Eurosceptic but would not normally | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
have voted for the Conservatives in the past may now feel they have more | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
in common with the Conservative Party than they do with Labour, and | :07:42. | :07:44. | |
that is actually quite a big statement to make. The way the | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
opinion polls look at the moment, I think Theresa May would have | :07:51. | :07:53. | |
thought, I would be daft not to go for this at this time. A number of | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
people have been saying to her for a number of months, look, it will | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
never be this good again. Brexit could get very sticky but frankly, | :08:03. | :08:07. | |
you will need all the and support at Westminster that you can get, | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
therefore, go for an election. -- all the friends and support. The | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
opinion pollsters be wildly wrong. The Conservatives could lose support | :08:16. | :08:17. | |
during this election campaign. At the moment, the lead they have is so | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
great that I think Theresa May, when she looked at it, and she took the | :08:23. | :08:29. | |
counsel of senior colleagues, she felt this was an opportunity she | :08:30. | :08:32. | |
couldn't actually pass up, even though she will be accused of doing | :08:33. | :08:37. | |
a U-turn. Brian and David, thank you both very much. I have to say, the | :08:38. | :08:43. | |
level of sunshine behind you, David, looks positively dangerous! With me | :08:44. | :08:47. | |
in the studio is the political editor of the Daily Record, David | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
Clegg, and political commentator Lesley Riddoch. Let's start, shall | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
we, to be boring, on Parliamentary process. As David says, turkeys | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
voting for Christmas, arguably, with Labour, they did, but you couldn't | :09:02. | :09:09. | |
not vote for it. What is the point of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act? | :09:10. | :09:11. | |
Not much. It was obviously put together in a different political | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
climate with a coalition government, trying to create stability but to | :09:16. | :09:18. | |
get rid of it now feels right, because there isn't much point if it | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
is just going to take a two thirds majority anyway and, if the | :09:24. | :09:25. | |
government of the day once to dissolve Parliament, the opposition | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
is never going to say, we think you should remain the government. In | :09:30. | :09:32. | |
that respect, I think the Labour Party is being forced into voting | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
for an election that all the indications are they are going to do | :09:38. | :09:40. | |
particularly badly in the MPs who are today going to vote, many of | :09:41. | :09:46. | |
them will lose their seats. We have seen some moderate Labour | :09:47. | :09:48. | |
politicians say they are not going to stand again. Including Alan | :09:49. | :09:53. | |
Johnson. Yes. I think the Labour Party is in a great deal of | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
difficulty and will be voting this afternoon what was a great deal of | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
enthusiasm. What is your sense that the mood amongst those of us who | :10:03. | :10:09. | |
will be voting? Do you think it is, fantastic, another opportunity for | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
an election! Or, for heaven 's sake, can't they get on with it?! The | :10:14. | :10:19. | |
latter, especially in Scotland, where we have had even more | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
elections and referendums then we have in the south. This will be the | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
seventh election I have covered in the last few years, and I think the | :10:27. | :10:32. | |
voters feel tired as well. What is your sense, Lesley? Much the same, | :10:33. | :10:37. | |
but I don't think it is just people being fed up with choreographed -- | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
with politics, it is being backed up with choreographed empty dances, and | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
that is what it is, because there is no outcome that will make a | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
particular difference to Scotland. The SNP have been such high tide | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
mark that, almost in every different legislature they are part of, they | :10:54. | :10:59. | |
have broken the arithmetic. It has made no difference whatsoever to UK | :11:00. | :11:05. | |
politics. We have a situation where 62% of Scots voted to stay in the | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
EU, no difference whatsoever. There was a vote in the Scottish | :11:10. | :11:12. | |
Parliament, and no difference. If they broke the bank and got 59 seats | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
this time, would it make the blindest bit of difference? No, it | :11:18. | :11:20. | |
wouldn't. Probably what Nicola Sturgeon is doing, in addition to | :11:21. | :11:25. | |
the economics and everything else, is to try and showcase that complete | :11:26. | :11:31. | |
deadlock that Scotland finds itself in. Should they get 59 MPs... That | :11:32. | :11:38. | |
really would be more power to their elbow, in terms of getting a | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
referendum. It would, but it is strange for me to say this to you, | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
but what would actually take to force the hand, to change the | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
dynamics of the argument? It is the same dynamics, just with three extra | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
MPs stuck on top, actually, five, because there two no longer under | :11:56. | :11:58. | |
the party whip. We are sitting with an unresolved constitutional | :11:59. | :12:06. | |
situation in Scotland hovering over every election, including the local | :12:07. | :12:09. | |
elections that Theresa May is just swept completely off beam by this | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
announcement and, when it comes to it, Northern Ireland is sitting | :12:15. | :12:16. | |
unbuttoned at the moment. All of this sits underneath the | :12:17. | :12:21. | |
constitutional argument, which will not be very well advanced by any | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
outcome from Scotland, unless the SNP and the Greens, in my opinion, | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
do something quite daring, which is to come to some sort of agreement | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
today, Maggie Chapman for the Greens is already suggesting they would not | :12:35. | :12:37. | |
stand in seats where they have lost their deposit against the SNP. These | :12:38. | :12:44. | |
could be pivotal seats, the few that could change hands. By your | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
argument, it wouldn't make any difference anyway. It wouldn't, but | :12:49. | :12:51. | |
it would demonstrate the capacity for the pro-independence parties to, | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
to an extent, get over themselves and work together to bring about a | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
new dynamics of politics in Scotland that people talk about but which we | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
need to see more of. I would like to see them do something crazy in our | :13:05. | :13:07. | |
situation and think of something like a joint manifesto. If you | :13:08. | :13:13. | |
really mean it, why not go for it? A joint manifesto is fine under the | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
Constitution because they agree on it, but they don't agree on many | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
other things. I appreciate that. The Greens have got zero MPs and the SNP | :13:21. | :13:29. | |
have 54, so why should they do a joint manifesto? That's quite true, | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
if you look at it that way, in terms of the seats you get back. What you | :13:34. | :13:36. | |
get from that is a recognition that there is a different way to run | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
politics, which is consensual and recognises there is mutual benefit | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
trying to create a different way to run the country. It is a thought. I | :13:46. | :13:48. | |
doubt it'll happen, but we need something new of this election. | :13:49. | :13:52. | |
Currently, it could be a stalemate. Is there and argued that the kind of | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
ID you are thinking for would be more beneficial for the Unionist | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
parties? -- is there an argument that the kind of idea. Not a joint | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
Labour- Conservative manifesto, but Labour not standing in Perthshire, | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
where the Conservatives are likely to run the SNP pretty close. If | :14:11. | :14:13. | |
Labour won not to stand a candidate in that seat, which they have no | :14:14. | :14:16. | |
choice of winning, and they are serious about a pro-referendum, | :14:17. | :14:22. | |
prounion message... The independent sides can easily stand backwards or | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
forwards, it doesn't do much damage to them. Come on! I don't know who | :14:27. | :14:31. | |
is left supporting Labour, but the idea that you stand back to let the | :14:32. | :14:34. | |
Conservatives in after the rape close, sanctions, attacks on | :14:35. | :14:43. | |
disability benefits... Who would buy that? I'm not suggesting that if the | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
tactic. Is Lesley says, Labour were perceived, rightly or wrongly, to | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
have suffered during the independence campaign by being seen | :14:53. | :14:56. | |
to be part of a campaign led by the Conservatives. That is what has | :14:57. | :15:02. | |
caused all of their problems. What if they did what you are floating, | :15:03. | :15:06. | |
that would be seen in the same way about -- in the same way, whereas, | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
if the SNP were seen to be supporting the Greens, that wouldn't | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
necessarily do them any harm. Green voters don't penalised their party | :15:16. | :15:22. | |
for backing a party that wants to scrap air passenger duty. If you | :15:23. | :15:27. | |
work Green, the idea that you would support that... But they would say | :15:28. | :15:31. | |
in the Scottish Parliament that Patrick Harvie will support the SNP | :15:32. | :15:34. | |
on the idea of independence but has never pretended to support them on | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
anything else. Air passenger duty is in Holyrood. | :15:40. | :15:47. | |
WWE universe to the left, 13. -- the noes to the left, 13. The ayes to | :15:48. | :16:03. | |
the right 522, the noes developed, 13, so the ayes habit, the ayes have | :16:04. | :16:16. | |
it. Unlock. That was the speaker, announcing the result of the vote. | :16:17. | :16:21. | |
Hardly close the SNP decided they would abstain. David Porter joins us | :16:22. | :16:27. | |
now. Whopping majority for another election. Understatement of the day, | :16:28. | :16:34. | |
an emphatic majority, 522 in favour of an early general election, only | :16:35. | :16:39. | |
13 against. The SNP decided to abstain on that one. No surprise. | :16:40. | :16:44. | |
The surprise is that so many MPs decided they would be part of this | :16:45. | :16:50. | |
debate and would record their votes. It now means that in effect the | :16:51. | :16:53. | |
fixed term parliament act from this election can be end, let's say, | :16:54. | :16:59. | |
Theresa May can now go ahead and call that general election which | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
will take place on June eight. It was never really in doubt that it | :17:04. | :17:10. | |
would happen but a huge majority. Basically the election campaign is | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
well and truly under we! I just wondered if it surprises you, David, | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
there was talk from Labour MPs who are opposed to Jeremy Corbyn, saying | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
that he should not be supporting having another election and that it | :17:25. | :17:27. | |
was as you put it earlier in the programme, like turkeys voting for | :17:28. | :17:33. | |
Christmas. But if there are only 13 MPs voting against this it looks | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
like most of those Labour MPs, even if they were opposed to Mr Corbyn 's | :17:38. | :17:46. | |
position have gone along with it. It does appear that they have decided | :17:47. | :17:49. | |
to back this. I suppose some will think yeah, if the Prime Minister | :17:50. | :17:52. | |
gives us an opportunity to hold a general election we should take up | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
on that. Others, I think, will thinking, this has been pretty | :17:57. | :18:02. | |
dreadful for us Labour MPs in the last 18 months. We have a Labour | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
that the majority of us don't want to support. Perhaps it is a case | :18:08. | :18:10. | |
that the turkeys have thought, it may be better to get this over and | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
done with and face whatever consequences we face. It will be a | :18:15. | :18:20. | |
very interesting seven weeks. As far as Labour is concerned, it's going | :18:21. | :18:24. | |
to be very interesting to see how many of those Labour MPs campaign | :18:25. | :18:30. | |
positively with Jeremy Corbyn as their leader or campaign on local | :18:31. | :18:38. | |
issues. Thank you for that. Let's go back to David Clegg and Lesley | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
Riddoch. Is Labour and issue, David? What do you do if you are one of the | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
majority of Labour MPs who will apparently be automatically selected | :18:50. | :18:52. | |
to stand in this election and you don't agree with a word, although | :18:53. | :18:56. | |
not so much that you don't agree with the word he says, just that... | :18:57. | :19:01. | |
You think you can't win with him as leader. Do you stand back and do | :19:02. | :19:07. | |
nothing or campaigned vigorously in the hope that something will change? | :19:08. | :19:11. | |
I think you must campaign vigorously come if you stand for election you | :19:12. | :19:14. | |
must believe in your own platform. And from a wider strategic point, | :19:15. | :19:19. | |
surely some of the moderate Labour people, their primary ambition in | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
that regard is to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. Taking a hammering in this | :19:24. | :19:26. | |
election will presumably get rid of him and give them the chance to | :19:27. | :19:30. | |
rebuild, having effectively been proved right by the electorate in | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
what they were saying. So in that kind of long-term goal, there is an | :19:35. | :19:41. | |
argument that having the election now is actually good. There's also | :19:42. | :19:44. | |
an argument for sitting back and doing nothing. If you believe as a | :19:45. | :19:50. | |
Labour MP for as long as you can keep your seat that hammering for | :19:51. | :19:53. | |
Labour might lead to the rebirth of the Labour Party, do nothing? It's | :19:54. | :20:01. | |
quite tactic, that. It's kind of the name of the game! Are we served by | :20:02. | :20:09. | |
this kind of setup in Britain? This is such an extraordinary situation | :20:10. | :20:15. | |
where, as you say, the Labour, the opposition party, had to meet the | :20:16. | :20:19. | |
gauntlet, thrown at their feet, does the country need an election now? | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
Really debatable. As one single thing changed in the last six weeks | :20:24. | :20:29. | |
that the Disney means that Theresa May needs some kind of mandate? Has | :20:30. | :20:35. | |
not. And the SNP have a mandate to do what they are doing... That was a | :20:36. | :20:43. | |
headline in the Daily Mail. An extraordinary headline which Mrs May | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
did not rebut today, so it remains, if you tackle this part of the | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
Democratic process and tackle Mr May from now and you are some sort of | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
saboteur of democracy, that is where it's got to. The Sun had a similar | :20:58. | :21:03. | |
headline and they are big papers, I understand, I don't reach them! We | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
will be back with you shortly. Let's cross again to College Green, I | :21:08. | :21:09. | |
think David is with the pollster. Yes, from YouGov. Joe, your | :21:10. | :21:23. | |
organisation is actually conducting research to find out what the UK | :21:24. | :21:28. | |
public thinks of us. Yes, we have the latest figures, we are | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
conducting a special poll, we want to ask if anything has changed in | :21:33. | :21:36. | |
Scotland. My sense from the data we have already is that it hasn't. The | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
SNP is an extremely strong position with so many seats. The best that | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
they could hope for is a few games but they can't go any further. An | :21:47. | :21:55. | |
incredibly high bar for the SNP. If you are a member of the Labour Party | :21:56. | :22:01. | |
and the Conservatives and the Lib Dems, does that mean that in this | :22:02. | :22:04. | |
campaign in Scotland you have to be ruthless and go for what you see as | :22:05. | :22:12. | |
marginal SNP seats? I would say so. The idea of bringing back the kind | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
of change going back to the Labour domination we saw decades ago is not | :22:17. | :22:19. | |
realistic at the moment and won't be for some years to come. Instead you | :22:20. | :22:23. | |
must adopt an alternative strategy, concentrate on those specific seats | :22:24. | :22:31. | |
you can win and concentrate on those conservatives who are hoping to | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
bring over The supporters and perhaps picking up some seats. | :22:36. | :22:39. | |
Unlikely, but possible, and the others will attempt similar things, | :22:40. | :22:44. | |
although it only means a handful of seats, not wholesale change. So most | :22:45. | :22:50. | |
of the voters in Scotland will see a contest in which the parties are | :22:51. | :22:53. | |
going through the motions, they would really fight or 59 seats | :22:54. | :22:59. | |
hammer and tongs. Will have to see exactly what they said that the | :23:00. | :23:02. | |
polling does suggest that. What we may seek is a realignment along the | :23:03. | :23:06. | |
lines of Brexit, along the lines of what we saw with the Scottish | :23:07. | :23:13. | |
independence referendum, this time everything might be about Brexit. | :23:14. | :23:16. | |
That's more likely in England and Scotland but in both cases we have | :23:17. | :23:19. | |
seven weeks to go and a lot can change in that time. As far as | :23:20. | :23:28. | |
Scotland is concerned, is the voter fatigue, oh, no, not another | :23:29. | :23:32. | |
election? It's not just in Scotland that we are picking that up, not | :23:33. | :23:37. | |
another election, following the election and the general election | :23:38. | :23:40. | |
and for the Scots following from the referendum. I think people would | :23:41. | :23:45. | |
have preferred a spring off but we don't all worlds get what we want. | :23:46. | :23:51. | |
-- not always. What are the strengths of the various parties? In | :23:52. | :24:00. | |
Scotland the SNP have a very strong position and can play very much on | :24:01. | :24:06. | |
this idea of independence but wanting to fight against Brexit. | :24:07. | :24:09. | |
That will certainly formed the bedrock of their campaign. The | :24:10. | :24:16. | |
Conservatives of Scotland will want to present themselves as the | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
alternative for Leave voters, and the Lib Dems will hope to position | :24:21. | :24:27. | |
themselves as a national remain option but it is difficult for all | :24:28. | :24:32. | |
of them, given the domination of... We've seen in recent elections that | :24:33. | :24:36. | |
the pollsters haven't always got it right. Are you confident that you | :24:37. | :24:41. | |
have tweaked things, that you will be reflecting the view of the | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
general public in the UK and Scotland? It is fair to say that we | :24:46. | :24:48. | |
don't always get it right, it is also fair that we often do. We'll be | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
hoping to get back to the good old days for the last 16 years where we | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
have been largely accurate although all polls have a margin of error, | :24:58. | :25:00. | |
they are only ever a snapshot of public opinion at the time. We'll | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
have to watch what could be a close contest. Thank you very much. You | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
will be a very busy man in the next seven weeks. Thank you for joining | :25:10. | :25:14. | |
us. Back to you, Gordon. Thank you, David. | :25:15. | :25:18. | |
EU officials appear to have welcomed this snap election. The chief | :25:19. | :25:25. | |
correspondent for a political websites joins me now. David, is | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
there a general welcome in the European Commission for this? Among | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
the CNET EU leaders I think that is true. It may be optimistic, overly | :25:37. | :25:42. | |
hopeful thinking but that thinking goes something like this. If Theresa | :25:43. | :25:47. | |
May has a stronger mandate that may silence some of the ladder | :25:48. | :25:51. | |
Brexiteers. Some of the folks who are much more anti-EU then she | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
personally has been. This might give further leveraged understanding | :25:57. | :26:02. | |
mandate needed to negotiate an orderly withdrawal -- this might | :26:03. | :26:08. | |
give her the leveraged. The kind of exit that leaves everyone in a | :26:09. | :26:14. | |
stronger position. I am interested to hear that because there has been | :26:15. | :26:18. | |
some talk in the EU about not wanting to give Britain to good a | :26:19. | :26:24. | |
deal in case it encourages others to leave. So if you are right and they | :26:25. | :26:30. | |
don't want to see our hard Brexit and they would like a stronger | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
Theresa May does that imply that the European side is quite keen to get | :26:35. | :26:44. | |
quite some of what you want in terms of access to the single market? As I | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
said this may be overly helpful and this won't be too pleasant or two | :26:50. | :26:54. | |
friendly and negotiation, even today, as the commission was | :26:55. | :26:58. | |
responding more fully to news of snap elections in Britain some of | :26:59. | :27:06. | |
these European medicines agency 's in the UK was, they will not be | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
there after Brexit despite some comments from David Davis and | :27:11. | :27:13. | |
others, saying no way, these agencies will be on the territory of | :27:14. | :27:17. | |
the EU and the UK will not be in the EU. So I think there no soft and ink | :27:18. | :27:25. | |
of positions although there is a sign that she might be and it could | :27:26. | :27:28. | |
be that she will be more reasonable than some of the loudest voices we | :27:29. | :27:32. | |
have heard in the Leave camp in the last few months. The other reason | :27:33. | :27:37. | |
what is it surprised me a little of that one thing that has been talked | :27:38. | :27:40. | |
about is, if there is a general election in Britain and there is no | :27:41. | :27:44. | |
prospect of a general election in 2020, the argument was that that | :27:45. | :27:49. | |
might strengthen the EU hand in negotiations, if there was going to | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
be an election recently afterwards they would have leveraged other | :27:55. | :27:57. | |
Theresa May that they will not have now because there won't be an | :27:58. | :28:01. | |
election. It's part of an analysis that I wrote for Politico yesterday. | :28:02. | :28:11. | |
Since the Brexit vote time has been on the side of the EU. There was | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
pressure on Mrs May two trigger Article 50 and pressure on Britain | :28:17. | :28:20. | |
to get a deal done in the two-year deadline, and that election was | :28:21. | :28:24. | |
looming right afterwards, when in that first year, we would not expect | :28:25. | :28:32. | |
some of the gains to be filed from Brexit although some of the pain | :28:33. | :28:36. | |
might be filed, so in terms of changing that election day, the | :28:37. | :28:40. | |
point at which Theresa May and her government would face a test at the | :28:41. | :28:43. | |
ballot box gives her a bit of a cushion, but on the other hand that | :28:44. | :28:47. | |
is not inconsistent with some of the goals in Brussels. She's talking | :28:48. | :28:52. | |
about possibly the need for a transitional period, that may be | :28:53. | :28:55. | |
difficult or may have been more difficult to negotiate with an | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
election looming, if she has an extra two your cushion that may | :29:00. | :29:02. | |
allow you to get a transition in place, keeps the UK paying into the | :29:03. | :29:07. | |
EU budget which Brussels would not oppose by any means, and also gives | :29:08. | :29:11. | |
a window to negotiate a trade stew which both sides have said they | :29:12. | :29:16. | |
would like. David, thank you very much. Let's get some political | :29:17. | :29:17. | |
reaction. Joining me from Minister is the | :29:18. | :29:24. | |
SNP's Jeopardy Westminster leader, Stuart Ramsey. Brian Taylor said | :29:25. | :29:30. | |
earlier that Nicola Sturgeon does not want this general election to be | :29:31. | :29:35. | |
a referendum on whether there should be another independence referendum, | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
is that your view? What she said was the Scottish Government already has | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
a mandate to hold a Scottish independence referendum. This | :29:46. | :29:46. | |
general election is about other things as well. It is about the type | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
of Brexit we will have. It is about whether we will continue with | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
austerity. It is about whether we will have a right wing government | :29:55. | :29:59. | |
unfettered by substantial opposition, cutting even more deeply | :30:00. | :30:12. | |
than in the past few years. It is about a lot of things, not simply | :30:13. | :30:14. | |
about Scotland's constitutional future. What would you count as | :30:15. | :30:16. | |
success that the SNP in this election? I remember going through | :30:17. | :30:18. | |
the entire election contest in 2015 saying that our intention was to win | :30:19. | :30:22. | |
the UK election in Scotland. This is our intention on June eight. Given | :30:23. | :30:27. | |
that we have been sitting on 47% in the polls for the last seven months | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
we've got to be pretty confident that we will do very well indeed. | :30:31. | :30:36. | |
Would you accept there is a chance that, given you did so well in 2015, | :30:37. | :30:45. | |
that you might lose a few seats? You never take the electorate for | :30:46. | :30:48. | |
granted and, speaking to my colleagues, I think they are going | :30:49. | :30:51. | |
to contest their seats as if they were trying to win them for the | :30:52. | :30:55. | |
first time. The mood of the party on the ground in Scotland is absolutely | :30:56. | :31:01. | |
buoyant. We are confident we've got a really positive message, not this | :31:02. | :31:06. | |
Brexit, not the hard Tory, cliff edge Brexit, not the austerity. We | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
have a picture to make which is far, far more progressive, far better not | :31:12. | :31:14. | |
just for the people of Scotland but also, in Scotland in particular, the | :31:15. | :31:19. | |
ball walk between the Scottish people and a hard right Tory | :31:20. | :31:23. | |
government, I think that is an incredibly attractive proposition to | :31:24. | :31:27. | |
make. Is it? Let's say you are right, the polls are correct and you | :31:28. | :31:32. | |
get 46, 40 7% of the vote, you keep most of your MPs at Westminster, why | :31:33. | :31:37. | |
does anything changed? Theresa May still says, I'm not ruling out a | :31:38. | :31:43. | |
referendum, but you're not having one while the Brexit negotiations | :31:44. | :31:49. | |
are going on. You say, that's terrible, we want another | :31:50. | :31:52. | |
independence referendum. We are exactly back where we are right now, | :31:53. | :31:57. | |
aren't we? Is the First Minister made clear this morning, the measure | :31:58. | :32:00. | |
of success in an election is winning the most votes in the most seats. If | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
our pitch is to move Scotland forward, and the Tory pitch, and | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
remember this is a straight SNP- Tory fight in Scotland now, the Tory | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
pitch is to keep Scotland stuck in this hard Brexit union, if we win, I | :32:14. | :32:18. | |
think Theresa May doesn't have a democratic leg to stand on if she | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
thought she could pose another independence referendum. But you | :32:24. | :32:26. | |
don't think she has a leg to stand on right now, so I don't see what | :32:27. | :32:31. | |
has changed. She set the parameters, not us. I started by saying that the | :32:32. | :32:37. | |
Scottish Government currently has a mandate to hold the referendum, and | :32:38. | :32:41. | |
we intend to do that, but our argument is that it is not a proxy | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
on the referendum. If it is an SNP - Tory fight and we win, I think the | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
last vestiges of democratic credibility footy remake -- for | :32:53. | :32:54. | |
Theresa May go completely. The scenario both you and I are | :32:55. | :33:00. | |
accepting, that you still do very well, you keep most of your seats, | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
you still don't get your referendum on independence, so what do you do | :33:05. | :33:10. | |
next? I don't accept that. If Theresa May is even remotely a | :33:11. | :33:13. | |
democrat, there is not just the mandate from the 2016 election, the | :33:14. | :33:19. | |
mandate from the Scottish Parliamentary vote, but the mandate | :33:20. | :33:24. | |
from a UK election. It puts her in a very weak position. Lesley Riddoch, | :33:25. | :33:29. | |
it's an odd one for the SNP, because what does change, even if, as | :33:30. | :33:34. | |
Stewart Hosie outlined, they do all that? As you said earlier, they are | :33:35. | :33:38. | |
back where they are at the moment. Sort of, and it is a bit difficult, | :33:39. | :33:43. | |
because there are plenty of people out there who want to campaign on | :33:44. | :33:46. | |
independence now, but the SNP will feel that there is not the right | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
time to do that. A seven-week campaign in which, if you put detail | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
out, it will be picked over on questions of currency... Would your | :33:55. | :34:01. | |
advice be, look, don't go into details about what an independent | :34:02. | :34:05. | |
Scotland would look like? Just say you are in favour of it. They are | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
saved from that in extent by the timing. Since it is not of their | :34:11. | :34:14. | |
choice, they can put up their and say, we are doing this seriously, we | :34:15. | :34:21. | |
had a process, so we can't come out with answers to staff within seven | :34:22. | :34:24. | |
weeks. It's far too short ace timescale. -- answers to this. There | :34:25. | :34:32. | |
is still going to be a lot of disgruntled people out there who | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
want, at long last, just to campaign for the vision of an independent | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
Scotland in Europe, the frustrating thing to me slightly, as somebody | :34:41. | :34:44. | |
who isn't a member of the SNP, is that lots of people want to discuss | :34:45. | :34:48. | |
that and get into the bones of what it would mean to be in Europe or the | :34:49. | :34:53. | |
EEA, all the halfway house options, but you can't do that as long as the | :34:54. | :35:00. | |
SNP are coy about this becoming a vote on independence, because they | :35:01. | :35:03. | |
are not geared up for that. What is your take? An odd one for the SNP. | :35:04. | :35:09. | |
They could be victims of their own past success in this election. I | :35:10. | :35:14. | |
don't see a massive downside for them, to be honest. I think it is | :35:15. | :35:18. | |
quite possible for them to lose a couple seats. An extra result in | :35:19. | :35:24. | |
2015, winning 56 seat out of 59, and the law of gravity suggests they may | :35:25. | :35:30. | |
well fall back a little. They will still overwhelmingly win in Scotland | :35:31. | :35:33. | |
for the scenario, they win 50 or something, so they are thrilled -- | :35:34. | :35:39. | |
they are still in a strong position. In a general UK context, their | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
ultimate goal could be strengthened, because it looks like we will see | :35:44. | :35:46. | |
the Labour Party wiped out by the Tories at a UK level. So that the | :35:47. | :35:52. | |
SNP can say it is a fight between independence against the hated | :35:53. | :35:55. | |
Tories, as they would put it. You saw Stewart Hosie saying, this is a | :35:56. | :36:02. | |
hard Brexit, and that is a compelling argument to be made for | :36:03. | :36:06. | |
independence if a referendum comes along, and a general election result | :36:07. | :36:09. | |
in a few weeks which has a massive Tory majority make it stronger. But | :36:10. | :36:15. | |
you didn't hear him talk about independence. I don't think the SNP | :36:16. | :36:20. | |
are wanting to style this is independence against the Tories. It | :36:21. | :36:22. | |
is basically the SNP against the Tories. It's a political party | :36:23. | :36:29. | |
thing. Lets get some reaction from the Conservatives. The MP John | :36:30. | :36:32. | |
Stephenson joins us from Westminster. What ambitions do you | :36:33. | :36:37. | |
have up here for the Conservatives in this election? What I am | :36:38. | :36:41. | |
campaigning for is a Conservative majority government in the UK. I | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
want to make sure we are well above 325 seats and I'd like to see as | :36:47. | :36:51. | |
many seats as we can win in Scotland to enhance that. That you any notion | :36:52. | :36:56. | |
of realistically what a number of seats in Scotland would be? -- have | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
you any notion. We campaign everywhere and we would hope to | :37:01. | :37:02. | |
games in Scotland. We will be campaigning vigorously. We have a | :37:03. | :37:08. | |
very good leader in Scotland, a very good Prime Minister, and it's about | :37:09. | :37:11. | |
a UK Government, it is about who is leading the UK into negotiations | :37:12. | :37:17. | |
with the EU, that is what this election is about. What is your | :37:18. | :37:22. | |
rationale for why Theresa May has done this? I think it is entirely | :37:23. | :37:27. | |
logical. Last year, we had a UK wide referendum and voted to come out of | :37:28. | :37:31. | |
the EU. Article 50 has been triggered. It is now about getting a | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
mandate for the negotiation with our European partners. Who does this | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
country want to be Prime Minister leading these negotiations? Is it | :37:40. | :37:42. | |
Prime Minister May with a Conservative majority or is it | :37:43. | :37:51. | |
Jeremy Corbyn and? When you say a mandate, that would be more | :37:52. | :37:56. | |
convincing word Theresa May to lay out a prospectus before the British | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
people during the selection of what exactly it is she wants to | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
negotiate. We will have to wait and see what the Prime Minister does lay | :38:06. | :38:10. | |
out during the campaign, but the important is, does this country have | :38:11. | :38:15. | |
confidence in? That doesn't give any logic at all. You talked about the | :38:16. | :38:21. | |
logic of an election. It's not as if she was about to be overwhelmed by | :38:22. | :38:24. | |
strident opposition from the Labour Party. She really needs to hold an | :38:25. | :38:29. | |
election to marginalise it hard Brexit is in your own party, who | :38:30. | :38:37. | |
will presumably cry traitor every attempt to deal with the EU. -- to | :38:38. | :38:43. | |
marginalise the hard Brexiteers. I was a remainder but I support | :38:44. | :38:51. | |
reminisced in her objective now. She wants to make sure she has a stable | :38:52. | :38:57. | |
majority in parliament, that she can negotiate from a position of | :38:58. | :39:00. | |
strength. Unfortunately, many of the opposition parties want to frustrate | :39:01. | :39:03. | |
the process. They don't want the best deal for the UK, they want to | :39:04. | :39:08. | |
upset the negotiations and continuously talk about is second | :39:09. | :39:11. | |
referendum. I think the focus of the Prime Minister is right. Can you | :39:12. | :39:16. | |
give any examples of the sort of thing you would want to see from | :39:17. | :39:19. | |
Brexit that is different from hard Brexit? You say you were a | :39:20. | :39:23. | |
remainder. What is the difference between what you want and what some | :39:24. | :39:29. | |
of the hard Brexiteers want? Whenever people talk about this, I | :39:30. | :39:34. | |
think we are going to end up with a bespoke UK- EU trade deal, and that | :39:35. | :39:38. | |
is what I would want to see. That gets the best for all parties. A | :39:39. | :39:42. | |
specific deal done for the benefit of the UK and our European parties. | :39:43. | :39:50. | |
That is the right approach. Would you be prepared to seek concessions | :39:51. | :39:56. | |
on immigration to get such a deal, Britain being part of a customs | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
union? What would it look like? I don't want to pre-empt any | :40:02. | :40:05. | |
negotiations... ... You are just telling us your opinion. You can see | :40:06. | :40:12. | |
a deal sector by sector, a broadbrush trade deal. That would be | :40:13. | :40:18. | |
down to the negotiations. I think we will end up with a bespoke deal | :40:19. | :40:21. | |
between the UK and the EU and we will look to see if we can get | :40:22. | :40:24. | |
similar deals with other countries and the rest of the world. Thank | :40:25. | :40:30. | |
you. We haven't talked about why you two think that Theresa is doing | :40:31. | :40:33. | |
this. There is an obvious thing about wanting their own and eight. | :40:34. | :40:41. | |
What do you think it is to try and head off the hardline Brexiteers in | :40:42. | :40:46. | |
her own party? If so, I am not sure it's going to work, because they | :40:47. | :40:49. | |
will probably still be there after the election as much as now. That's | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
true, and I don't think anybody is going to get by this line -- is | :40:55. | :40:58. | |
going to buy this line that opponents of the route should | :40:59. | :41:04. | |
actually sit up -- shut up, sit down and let her have an unchallenged | :41:05. | :41:07. | |
course through the whole thing. I am conscious, listening to the MP, of | :41:08. | :41:11. | |
this notion that there could be a hope for a trade deal negotiated | :41:12. | :41:16. | |
between Britain and the EU. If this was such a kind of go, why is it | :41:17. | :41:23. | |
that banks are relocating right now out of London into Frankfurt, Berlin | :41:24. | :41:30. | |
and Dublin? Passport in, which was so important... If I was a bank | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
executive, I would say it is prudent behaviour. Before cost of that | :41:37. | :41:42. | |
prudent behaviour, cast in the context of the Scottish referendum, | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
was a huge problem for that referendum -- proposition, but it is | :41:47. | :41:50. | |
happening quietly now and we don't connect it with the discussions | :41:51. | :41:54. | |
about the future. The guys with the money are already shipping out. Why | :41:55. | :41:58. | |
do you think Theresa May is doing it? Apart from the personal mandate, | :41:59. | :42:03. | |
like John Major. I don't think it is as much Brexit as pure party | :42:04. | :42:10. | |
political advantage. Two polls said that Labour were 20 points behind | :42:11. | :42:13. | |
and, lo and behold, there is a snap election. I think she thinks that | :42:14. | :42:18. | |
Jeremy Corbyn will be a disaster and it won't necessarily be, it won't | :42:19. | :42:25. | |
necessarily be this bad for ever, so she should strike now. So you think | :42:26. | :42:29. | |
all this talk we heard from John Stevenson about giving her a mandate | :42:30. | :42:33. | |
or her particular form of Brexit is all just Guha. There two separate | :42:34. | :42:40. | |
ideas. One is that she is trying to protect herself from the hard | :42:41. | :42:45. | |
Brexiteers. Why has she filled her cabinet with them then? Some others | :42:46. | :42:49. | |
are suggesting it is going to lead, the EU thinks it's going to lead to | :42:50. | :42:54. | |
a softer Brexit. I don't see much evidence she is pushing for that. We | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
will be back with you later. Ian Murray, Scotland's only Labour MP, | :43:00. | :43:03. | |
joins us now. It was only recently that you were tweeting that your | :43:04. | :43:08. | |
leader was a disaster. Can he win a general election? It's hardly | :43:09. | :43:13. | |
surprising that you are reading those back to me. It's not also a | :43:14. | :43:17. | |
surprise that I didn't support Jeremy Corbyn's leadership when he | :43:18. | :43:23. | |
was re-elected, but he is the leader of the Labour Party, we are going | :43:24. | :43:26. | |
into election, he is our candidate for Prime Minister and we will | :43:27. | :43:32. | |
support him on that. Can you win? Of course. We are looking to try and | :43:33. | :43:35. | |
gain seats back in Scotland and we are looking to fight for every | :43:36. | :43:39. | |
single seat across the country. This election is being framed as a Brexit | :43:40. | :43:44. | |
election. It's an unnecessary general election, the promised has | :43:45. | :43:47. | |
gone back on a promise not to have one, so we go to the country, we | :43:48. | :43:52. | |
bring down this Conservative government and we go back and say | :43:53. | :43:55. | |
there is a choice to be made, and the choice is to stop this hard | :43:56. | :43:59. | |
Brexit you have been talking about and to send a message to Nicola | :44:00. | :44:01. | |
Sturgeon that we don't want another independence referendum. That is the | :44:02. | :44:09. | |
framing of this election. What is the choice? Labour doesn't appear to | :44:10. | :44:14. | |
have a position on Brexit, which is particularly clear. Is there some | :44:15. | :44:19. | |
proposition about Brexit you will be putting to the people of the country | :44:20. | :44:26. | |
and, if so, what is it? Keir Starmer in his Mansion house speech a few | :44:27. | :44:29. | |
weeks ago set at six key tests, one of which was to maintain access or | :44:30. | :44:34. | |
membership of the single market, that was one, and everything else is | :44:35. | :44:39. | |
framed around it. They are around making sure we can protect workers' | :44:40. | :44:42. | |
rights, making sure we can protect the social chapter we have enjoyed, | :44:43. | :44:45. | |
in terms of the rights we have in this country. There are six tests, | :44:46. | :44:50. | |
the clear position of the Labour Party to hold to account. If we win | :44:51. | :44:56. | |
the election on June the 8th, we will be going back to make sure we | :44:57. | :45:01. | |
can get the softest of soft Brexits and we will see where that leads us. | :45:02. | :45:05. | |
The manifesto will be out soon and that will detail clearly what the | :45:06. | :45:06. | |
Labour Party position is. You said one minute ago you would | :45:07. | :45:16. | |
like to keep your own seed. Do you have any notion of how many seats | :45:17. | :45:21. | |
realistically Labour could claw back in Scotland? Any ambitions in that | :45:22. | :45:27. | |
front? We will be looking to win as many seats as we can. The election | :45:28. | :45:32. | |
was only called at 1115 yesterday morning and took us all by surprise | :45:33. | :45:38. | |
including no doubt yourself on the BBC because everybody was | :45:39. | :45:42. | |
speculating it might be some other announcements we are putting | :45:43. | :45:46. | |
resources into seats we think we can win, pushing candidates in every | :45:47. | :45:50. | |
seat in Scotland and fighting on the dishes on their doorsteps. We said | :45:51. | :45:55. | |
in 2015 that any other vote than Labour in delivering a Tory | :45:56. | :45:57. | |
government would be bad the country and I am sorry to say we have been | :45:58. | :46:01. | |
proved right, we have disastrous Brexit coming up and we back on this | :46:02. | :46:07. | |
merry-go-round of independence. That's the result of not electing | :46:08. | :46:12. | |
Labour. So now we say, let's elect a Labour government, get rid of this | :46:13. | :46:16. | |
dreadful Conservative government, get the country back on track and | :46:17. | :46:20. | |
Goldberg services important to your viewers which the economy, | :46:21. | :46:25. | |
education, and the future. You have made no secret of your opinion about | :46:26. | :46:31. | |
Jeremy Corbyn. The worst Labour do, the more likely it is you can get | :46:32. | :46:36. | |
rid of him and the better you do, the less likely it is you can get | :46:37. | :46:41. | |
rid of him. We want to win this election because one good day of | :46:42. | :46:45. | |
Labour government is better than a thousand days of bad Tory government | :46:46. | :46:49. | |
so we will do all we can to get Theresa May out of Downing Street. | :46:50. | :46:53. | |
We all share the same values in the Labour movement, that comes out time | :46:54. | :46:58. | |
after time, whether it is myself, Kezia Dugdale Jeremy Corbyn and | :46:59. | :47:03. | |
we'll be taking those values to the doorstep and telling people what it | :47:04. | :47:06. | |
is so important to get rid of this Tory government, the country is | :47:07. | :47:08. | |
staring down the barrel of a gun in terms of a hard Brexit. We | :47:09. | :47:24. | |
have to say to the Prime Minister it's not acceptable, no one voted | :47:25. | :47:27. | |
for this, it is bad for the country and bad for the future and they will | :47:28. | :47:30. | |
turn to us and vote Labour. Thank you very much. David, as ringing | :47:31. | :47:33. | |
endorsements of a leader go, I have heard ringinger! It's clear that | :47:34. | :47:38. | |
he's not comfortable with Jeremy Corbyn but he's got a fight on his | :47:39. | :47:42. | |
hands. You must be nervous. I was doing a piece of the paper today | :47:43. | :47:45. | |
about what the key contest in Scotland could be and it's almost | :47:46. | :47:49. | |
impossible to find a seat where Labour could pick up a seat. The | :47:50. | :47:54. | |
only thing they could do is pour all their resources to try to hold on | :47:55. | :47:58. | |
with Ian Murray because we've heard speculation in the last 24 hours | :47:59. | :48:02. | |
that Scotland could become a Tory free zone as far as MPs are | :48:03. | :48:06. | |
concerned. It's not inconceivable that it could be a Labour MP free | :48:07. | :48:12. | |
zone as well. His majority isn't that great. Not the worst but not | :48:13. | :48:18. | |
strong enough that he would be particularly confident enough | :48:19. | :48:21. | |
especially with the Corbyn drug effect. Any other seats Labour might | :48:22. | :48:30. | |
win? All the strongholds in Glasgow were former strongholds, I had | :48:31. | :48:36. | |
forgotten just how large the SNP majority is. Could not go back just | :48:37. | :48:43. | |
as quickly? Certainly not in this election. What is your take on | :48:44. | :48:48. | |
Labour? Mum another thing that could happen chronologically is the | :48:49. | :48:52. | |
council elections. I appreciate that they are pretty small beer, the way | :48:53. | :48:56. | |
that they are played, some areas that no one identifies with, however | :48:57. | :49:00. | |
there is already organisation on the ground and the SNP are infinitely | :49:01. | :49:05. | |
more organised than Labour for that. They've got activists down on that | :49:06. | :49:09. | |
level canvassing relentlessly so these guys just need to keep going | :49:10. | :49:14. | |
and that will make it even more difficult because there are reports | :49:15. | :49:18. | |
of Labour not fielding full slate of candidates because they can't summon | :49:19. | :49:23. | |
the numbers. A puzzle here. Labour claims to be the biggest mass | :49:24. | :49:27. | |
membership party in Western Europe and although perhaps the numbers | :49:28. | :49:32. | |
joining in Scotland are less than in England still a lot of people have | :49:33. | :49:37. | |
been joining, haven't they managed to turn that new membership into a | :49:38. | :49:43. | |
campaigning organisation? I don't know if it's a case in England, but | :49:44. | :49:46. | |
in Scotland they haven't had the numbers to do that much. Lesley | :49:47. | :49:52. | |
mentions an important point, the candidates. One great advantage to | :49:53. | :49:57. | |
the SNP will have is that their candidates will be there already | :49:58. | :50:01. | |
because they have practically all the seats. Except Mhairi Black. She | :50:02. | :50:09. | |
says she will stay on. The Conservatives have been talking this | :50:10. | :50:12. | |
morning, she thinks they could target five or six seats and they've | :50:13. | :50:15. | |
been having a bit of bother with some of their candidates saying | :50:16. | :50:20. | |
silly things on social media. They will be having to get candidates in | :50:21. | :50:23. | |
place and let them and they don't have much time to do that. Vows of | :50:24. | :50:33. | |
silence perhaps! Scrubbing their Twitter feed before they go forward! | :50:34. | :50:38. | |
About Labour, because will talk about the Lib Dems later, anything | :50:39. | :50:43. | |
at all to gain full Labour nationally? UK wide? If Jeremy | :50:44. | :50:47. | |
Corbyn surprised everyone, there could be that. The polls have been | :50:48. | :50:53. | |
shown to be wrong before and they are a mass membership. I personally | :50:54. | :50:59. | |
think the polls are about right. The Corbyn Labour Party is just the kind | :51:00. | :51:03. | |
of organisation you like, isn't it? A ground upwards let's get down to | :51:04. | :51:13. | |
the grassroots peoples party? That is the way the Corbyn supporters and | :51:14. | :51:17. | |
Momentum people would see themselves. There is an irony that | :51:18. | :51:22. | |
the kind of person Labour has lost in Scotland to the SNP would | :51:23. | :51:26. | |
probably not be unhappy voting for Corbyn 's Labour Party in some | :51:27. | :51:30. | |
respects but that's not the deal on offer. It's kind of academic. As far | :51:31. | :51:36. | |
as what Labour could look for in the UK, all they can look for is first | :51:37. | :51:41. | |
past the post, one of the least fair systems on the planet and if they | :51:42. | :51:45. | |
could figure any kind of tactical voting there might be some | :51:46. | :51:48. | |
possibilities, the Scots have proved very adept, and figuring out how to | :51:49. | :51:56. | |
remove a Tory. It's possible that Southern voters could catch on and | :51:57. | :52:03. | |
might vote Lib Dem. Paul Mason, now a Labour Party member, advocated on | :52:04. | :52:07. | |
Newsnight last night tactical voting if you were a Corbyn supporter. That | :52:08. | :52:13. | |
might catch on. The problem with that is that the position on Brexit | :52:14. | :52:19. | |
is so muddied. That could benefit the Lib Dems rather than Labour. If | :52:20. | :52:27. | |
you are in favour of Remain and have a strong Lib Dem premise they have a | :52:28. | :52:30. | |
clearer pro-remain aligned than Labour so why would you not vote Lib | :52:31. | :52:35. | |
Dem? Lacey if Labour could change the agenda down south from being | :52:36. | :52:39. | |
about Brexit to do you want this Tory government that doesn't want | :52:40. | :52:44. | |
any opposition, if they could get that dynamic going then possibly | :52:45. | :52:48. | |
people would think, how do I get a Tory out in this seat in much the | :52:49. | :52:52. | |
same way the Scots did without a script? The two elections running? | :52:53. | :52:58. | |
David is down on College Green again. Let's get a final thought. It | :52:59. | :53:03. | |
is all done and dusted, what's the reaction been? I think it is, thank | :53:04. | :53:08. | |
goodness it is going to happen, we knew it would happen from yesterday, | :53:09. | :53:12. | |
let's get on with it. There's a bit of business to be done in | :53:13. | :53:14. | |
Westminster this week and next week, we think Parliament will be revoked | :53:15. | :53:20. | |
toward the end of next week, so they've got a few days to do what | :53:21. | :53:26. | |
they call washing-up business, that is important pieces of legislation | :53:27. | :53:30. | |
like the Finance Bill and stuff like that which is important to the | :53:31. | :53:35. | |
finances of the country and there will be other bills that will fall, | :53:36. | :53:41. | |
and we will know that the new government will want to take those | :53:42. | :53:47. | |
bills Ford or not. I think the feeling is, speaking to MPs, they | :53:48. | :53:51. | |
know there will be an election on June eight, now they just want to | :53:52. | :53:57. | |
get on with it. They just wonder, whether they wanted an election or | :53:58. | :54:03. | |
not, it is what they are in politics to do, to represent their | :54:04. | :54:08. | |
constituencies and from time to time put themselves up for election. We | :54:09. | :54:15. | |
have seen the SNP, the Conservatives, and the Labour | :54:16. | :54:19. | |
speaking as if this was their big chance, the one thing that they | :54:20. | :54:22. | |
could not wait for! Obviously they are all going to win! Which of them | :54:23. | :54:28. | |
meant it? Of course they say will all win and they are all confident. | :54:29. | :54:33. | |
I think in Scotland it's going to be incredibly difficult to see things | :54:34. | :54:37. | |
changing very much to tell the truth. The SNP are in a very strong | :54:38. | :54:43. | |
position and in many of the seats they have, even if they did see | :54:44. | :54:51. | |
their support, they have a quite big majority, perhaps they will be a few | :54:52. | :54:58. | |
changes, the SNP could see a couple of seats but I don't think it will | :54:59. | :55:03. | |
change dramatically. The UK as a whole, the Conservatives seem to | :55:04. | :55:07. | |
have a huge lead, that could be some false opinion polls, but it could | :55:08. | :55:13. | |
mean as well that as far as Labour MPs are concerned, and you talk to | :55:14. | :55:18. | |
Labour MPs privately, they are not confident. They are going through | :55:19. | :55:23. | |
this because they have to. We could have a situation where, as far as | :55:24. | :55:27. | |
England is concerned, we are in effect have a realignment of | :55:28. | :55:31. | |
politics if Labour take a big hit. I am catching it, it is if, it is | :55:32. | :55:37. | |
maybe, it is good, it is not necessarily going to happen. The | :55:38. | :55:41. | |
next few weeks will be important. Paradoxically local elections could | :55:42. | :55:44. | |
be important because they will give an indication of the way people are | :55:45. | :55:50. | |
thinking. Now we've got a general election grafted on top of the local | :55:51. | :55:55. | |
elections, many people in local elections will vote as the do in a | :55:56. | :55:59. | |
general election, they will just be doing it more than a month before | :56:00. | :56:02. | |
the real general election. It will be fascinating as far as political | :56:03. | :56:09. | |
journalists are concerned, and good for trade, people may say that | :56:10. | :56:15. | |
campaigns are boring, don't believe them. Plenty of unexpected stories | :56:16. | :56:20. | |
will come along. It will be fun. David, thank you. We hoped to speak | :56:21. | :56:24. | |
to Alistair Carmichael, he didn't turn up today. Before we go back, | :56:25. | :56:30. | |
look at this. Winning 56 seats will be a huge challenge for Nicola | :56:31. | :56:34. | |
Sturgeon 's party, Ruth Davidson has predicted that we have hit peak and | :56:35. | :56:40. | |
the only way is down. This party... How! | :56:41. | :56:47. | |
LAUGHTER Don't do pieces to Camara! Have a | :56:48. | :56:56. | |
quick look around first. Do a piece to the Camara is as close to the | :56:57. | :57:03. | |
scene of the action. You could always cover all the bases. And | :57:04. | :57:08. | |
Nicola Sturgeon does seem to be popping up all over the place, she | :57:09. | :57:12. | |
did have a pre-existing arrangement that took her to London today that | :57:13. | :57:16. | |
they she is a game. We're going to have seven weeks of this, any | :57:17. | :57:22. | |
surprises as David with his usual amazing optimism forecast! What | :57:23. | :57:30. | |
could come along? The only surprise in Scotland would be if the SNP | :57:31. | :57:35. | |
don't do well. It doesn't seem very likely. This Tory revival taking | :57:36. | :57:41. | |
lots of SNP seats would be a big story but it doesn't seem likely. UK | :57:42. | :57:45. | |
wide the question is what does the public make of Jeremy Corbyn. Or | :57:46. | :57:51. | |
could this machine, allegedly behind him, suddenly spring into action? Is | :57:52. | :58:01. | |
interesting because people will be sizing him up as a potential Prime | :58:02. | :58:05. | |
Minister negotiating Brexit. Let's see what they think about that | :58:06. | :58:11. | |
prospect. Potential surprises? The local elections. Will the NSP take | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
Glasgow? Will they hold steady? If they do then the alignment of | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
practically all the representation of the SNP within these big cities | :58:21. | :58:24. | |
is complete and that's a big spur to them and what they go on to do and | :58:25. | :58:31. | |
the foot shoulders upon whom much is dependent. People should not dismiss | :58:32. | :58:34. | |
the local elections out of hand because that will be huge. And the | :58:35. | :58:41. | |
general election, any surprises? Can Corbyn muster the troops and | :58:42. | :58:45. | |
actually show some leadership. Will have to leave it there. Thank you | :58:46. | :58:49. | |
both very much indeed. That's all we've got time for now, First | :58:50. | :58:53. | |
Minister's Questions is tomorrow at midday, until then, from us all, | :58:54. | :58:55. | |
goodbye. this super-sized hospital has been | :58:56. | :59:02. | |
transforming lives in Scotland. He said it had been | :59:03. | :59:08. | |
grown in America. There's nowhere else in Scotland | :59:09. | :59:13. | |
that could have done everything that we've done. | :59:14. | :59:16. | |
Yes, there's the sad times, but we get to see people | :59:17. | :59:19. | |
with happy endings. | :59:20. | :59:23. |