19/06/2013 Politics Scotland


19/06/2013

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 19/06/2013. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Welcome to Politics Scotland. Coming up: The finance secretary

:00:22.:00:26.

opens up his books. John Swinney will update Parliament on his

:00:26.:00:32.

finances and any cash he has left over. Calls for sex education at a

:00:32.:00:38.

much earlier age from a Holyrood committee.

:00:38.:00:42.

And at Westminster, bashing the bankers. MPs agree that bankers to

:00:43.:00:48.

break the law should go to jail. Stricter that top story now. The

:00:48.:00:54.

Prime Minister has backed a call to allow criminal charges against key

:00:54.:01:03.

brand -- bankers... Lord McFall, the Labour peer, was

:01:03.:01:10.

one of the members of the Banking Standards Commission. What we found

:01:10.:01:14.

his standards are abysmally low, and culture is rotten. So we need

:01:14.:01:17.

to ensure that rather than collective responsibility which

:01:17.:01:22.

existed up to now, in other words we were all in it, no one

:01:22.:01:28.

particular was to blame, there is individual accountability.

:01:28.:01:33.

Penalties against bankers who claimed responsibility, I say yes.

:01:33.:01:37.

Also major banks are in receipt of taxpayers' money, and you can claw

:01:37.:01:47.
:01:47.:01:47.

back bonuses though -- bonuses. am joined with Gillian Bowditch who

:01:47.:01:53.

writes for the Sunday Times, and Douglas Fraser. Interesting hearing

:01:53.:02:03.
:02:03.:02:03.

from those characters involved in the report. Do you think this

:02:03.:02:11.

report will work? There is a lot more beneath this. It could change

:02:11.:02:19.

if it is adopted, and it is easy for politicians to buy a into this

:02:19.:02:22.

means of changing the culture of banking. The behaviour of bankers,

:02:22.:02:28.

the incentives they have got to behave the way they do, that is

:02:28.:02:31.

partly about personal responsibility or accountability

:02:31.:02:35.

for specific tasks, which would be driven into the banks. It is also

:02:35.:02:41.

about paying bonuses. That motivates bankers. If that is

:02:41.:02:47.

constructed with the help of regulators, that could help

:02:47.:02:50.

maintain behaviour. They are not saying there is a cap on bonuses,

:02:50.:02:56.

which people were saying last year. And they are not examining what is

:02:56.:03:02.

being paid for, what the job of a banker is and who game's most

:03:02.:03:07.

within the bank. There are elements there that they may be able to

:03:07.:03:17.

change. What is also significant is that they say there is not enough

:03:17.:03:20.

competition and diversity. The banks tend to look similar. They

:03:20.:03:24.

say there is a big problem there. They are going to it in a lot of

:03:24.:03:28.

detail but do not have a lot of solutions as to how to change that.

:03:28.:03:32.

A lot of banks withdrew five years ago from the British market, making

:03:32.:03:39.

the British banks more important. The Prime Minister looked as if he

:03:39.:03:43.

was in favour of these penalties taking the wind out of Ed

:03:43.:03:48.

Miliband's sells. It is not a big thing for the Prime Minister to

:03:48.:03:52.

sign up to. This question of diversity has been kicked back into

:03:52.:03:57.

the government's campaign. They think they hoped this would buy

:03:57.:04:03.

time. This time last year, the LIBOR scandal, that is why this was

:04:03.:04:09.

set up. It has kicked people around the Westminster committee rooms

:04:09.:04:12.

effectively, but it has raised questions which are now back with

:04:12.:04:18.

the Government. This is the kind of report that the public really want

:04:18.:04:25.

to see, bankers behind Bars us. That is right. The report has been

:04:25.:04:31.

well received. We have seen Sir Fred Goodwin was his knighthood,

:04:31.:04:36.

but we have not seen accountability. -- lose his knighthood. We have

:04:36.:04:46.
:04:46.:04:47.

only seen two bankers in the public life suffering humiliation. We have

:04:47.:04:51.

all been victims of the banking crisis. The big problem will be

:04:51.:04:56.

implementation. Howard are we going to implement this? Bankers are good

:04:56.:05:00.

at wriggling out of the kind of suggestions that have been made in

:05:00.:05:10.
:05:10.:05:10.

the past to try and bring them to bits. -- book. The directors of the

:05:10.:05:14.

Bank should be in the spotlight, they were on board when this

:05:14.:05:20.

happened. Interesting words in the report about the state-owned banks.

:05:20.:05:24.

How might they be disposed of back into the price of its sector?

:05:24.:05:31.

Starting with Lloyds, we can expect to you more about this from the

:05:31.:05:34.

Lord Chancellor tonight in London. He will say more about how this

:05:34.:05:39.

begins to get sold off. More complex as this Royal Bank of

:05:39.:05:49.
:05:49.:05:49.

Scotland, 81% owned by the taxpayer. They cannot find a way to get it

:05:49.:05:52.

broken up. That is partly because we do not know how to break it up.

:05:52.:05:59.

You could take the good assets, sell it into the market, and create

:05:59.:06:05.

a bad bank, and hope that it does not explode and pleasantly, or you

:06:05.:06:10.

could break it up in different ways, splitting the risky investment bank

:06:10.:06:14.

from the utility bank we need. You could split commercial banking from

:06:14.:06:18.

personal banking, or you could take the big band and split it up so

:06:18.:06:25.

that it serves the nations and regions. We have very big banks for

:06:26.:06:29.

the size of country that we are. There are so many ways to skin a

:06:29.:06:34.

cat. A lot of them take a lot of complexity and time, and a lot of

:06:34.:06:40.

cost. They also changed course from what we have been doing for the

:06:40.:06:50.
:06:50.:06:52.

past few years. That is one aspect of this, the Government need to

:06:52.:07:00.

look into this. Thank you. Aqua due shortly. Unifying

:07:00.:07:05.

Scotland's police service into one for us has attracted a lot of

:07:05.:07:09.

negative publicity, but the same has been going on at the fire

:07:09.:07:14.

service, but it has slipped under the radar. Those involved have

:07:14.:07:18.

dated the Justice Committee yesterday. We see no discernible

:07:18.:07:22.

negative impact in partnership relations as a result of police and

:07:22.:07:27.

fire reform. I do not think it is any secret that there have been

:07:27.:07:33.

difficulties in terms of governance and oversight. Would the panel

:07:33.:07:39.

offer any advice and how you managed to deliver things

:07:39.:07:46.

apparently with little upset? And having listened to an earlier panel

:07:46.:07:51.

with a great deal of commitment and universal support, what was the

:07:51.:07:57.

secret of delivering gas fire and to the future and what advice would

:07:57.:08:07.
:08:07.:08:09.

you give? -- thus far. I would love to take the credit for this, but

:08:09.:08:12.

the foundations were set long before myself or the chief was

:08:12.:08:17.

appointed, that was a partnership that was developed between the

:08:17.:08:21.

people looking at how they take the service for would into a single

:08:21.:08:28.

service. So the foundation was set for that partnership, taking on

:08:28.:08:32.

board and having regular meetings and discussions, and listening to

:08:32.:08:39.

what staff were saying. The partnership between the Services,

:08:40.:08:43.

the government and the staff from the Foundation for how we bring

:08:43.:08:48.

things forward. We have carried on from that. If we get to a stage

:08:49.:08:52.

where the service feels we are doing something to them and not in

:08:52.:08:55.

conjunction with them, that is where we will hit problems others

:08:55.:09:01.

have. I intend we do not get to that position, that we work in

:09:01.:09:08.

partnership to deliver. If it had not been for partnership working,

:09:08.:09:15.

it would have been a more difficult challenge than it was. It was in

:09:15.:09:18.

relation to the separation of the sport functions and the service to

:09:18.:09:28.
:09:28.:09:33.

love grey area. I cannot... What I can say is that we have been a

:09:33.:09:37.

successful organisation, we have reduced the number of primary fires

:09:37.:09:42.

in Scotland by about 40% over the last decade. Wrigley, the staff who

:09:42.:09:47.

work on the frontline get much of the credit for that, but I am clear

:09:47.:09:51.

that support staff are enabling staff. The fact that they service

:09:51.:09:54.

the vehicles, the fact that they do the strategic planning, that they

:09:54.:10:01.

paid people enables the from service committee to allow that to

:10:01.:10:06.

happen. What we have is an organisation where everyone

:10:06.:10:09.

understands that they are enabling the frontline to happen, they are

:10:09.:10:14.

making sure that those improvements are going to happen and they can

:10:14.:10:19.

clearly see where they're going to contribute to it. I think it is a

:10:19.:10:24.

strength of the Scottish Fire and rescue service that we are part of

:10:24.:10:27.

Fatah organisation and are not separate it. Now to live coverage

:10:27.:10:33.

of the chamber at Holyrood. John Swinney is opening his account to

:10:33.:10:37.

MSPs, explaining how much money has been spent over the financial year,

:10:37.:10:43.

and how many he has left -- how much he has left, if any. It looks

:10:43.:10:49.

as if he always balances the books but it looks like he likes to keep

:10:49.:10:56.

a little bit but as well. -- a little bit back. Everyone knows you

:10:56.:11:00.

keep a little back for emergencies. Next year will be a big year for

:11:00.:11:04.

the SNP. They have the independence referendum and the eyes of the

:11:04.:11:08.

world on them with the Commonwealth Games, the Ryder Cup and the

:11:08.:11:15.

anniversary of Bannockburn. So next year is a key here and I suspect he

:11:15.:11:19.

would like to have a little in reserve just in case. Thank you.

:11:19.:11:29.

Let us go to the chamber. This is the ring-fenced element of

:11:29.:11:33.

the Budget intended to cover appreciation and technical

:11:33.:11:38.

accounting items. �65 million of this underspend relates to less

:11:38.:11:43.

than anticipated write-down of the current book valuation of the

:11:43.:11:47.

income-contingent repayment student loan book. A further �22 million is

:11:47.:11:57.
:11:57.:12:03.

due to lower than and... The 2012/13 Public Expenditure Analysis

:12:03.:12:06.

is due to be published in July by her Majesty's Treasury, which will

:12:06.:12:12.

place on records the provisional outturn, which includes cash and

:12:12.:12:21.

not cash. This will represent under Spence of 261 million, 150 million,

:12:21.:12:25.

and 29 million respectively. Parliament will wish to note that

:12:25.:12:31.

the devolved administration budget exchange mechanism will be utilised

:12:31.:12:35.

for the second year. Since devolution, the Scottish Government

:12:35.:12:38.

have the facility to carry forward any unspent budget to future years,

:12:38.:12:48.
:12:48.:12:55.

which was known as India for flexibility -- end-year flexibility.

:12:55.:12:58.

The Scottish government had allowed limited flexibility to carry

:12:58.:13:03.

forward of to see the 0.6% of its resource budget and 1.5% of its

:13:03.:13:08.

capital budget. This equates to a cap this year of �200 million in

:13:08.:13:15.

total. In 2011/12 we carried forward �179 million in the Budget

:13:15.:13:20.

exchange mechanism for use in 2012/13. This year we will carry

:13:20.:13:26.

forward the same amount of 179 million to be utilised in 2013/14.

:13:26.:13:35.

In the budget for those years we had factored into her plans �150

:13:35.:13:42.

million carried forward. We have delivered the plan. Accordingly I

:13:42.:13:46.

am pleased to inform Parliament that the balance of the flip -- the

:13:46.:13:51.

fiscal underspend, �21 million, will be carried forward to augment

:13:51.:13:57.

existing spending plans. The sums to be this -- deployed will be

:13:57.:14:07.
:14:07.:14:08.

confirmed in the Budget revision in autumn. A modest Cabinet underspend

:14:08.:14:11.

emerged to two-timing differences between demand and the availability

:14:11.:14:17.

of funding and capital budgets. There is a �5.3 million underspend

:14:17.:14:20.

in they are been regeneration programme which is a demand-led

:14:20.:14:30.
:14:30.:14:30.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 80 seconds

:14:30.:15:50.

In December 2012, I announced a �205 million investment package

:15:50.:16:00.
:16:00.:16:04.

ovens -- construction and maintenance projects. I will write

:16:04.:16:11.

to the finance committee setting out the full details of the 2012/13

:16:11.:16:15.

Azores and cupboard door switches once the details are finalised.

:16:15.:16:23.

Budget choices have enabled the Scottish Government to focus on

:16:23.:16:27.

youth unemployment. These have included 25,000 Modern

:16:27.:16:30.

Apprenticeship opportunities in each year of the current Parliament

:16:30.:16:40.
:16:40.:16:46.

and an additionally �30 million. We will maintain the education

:16:46.:16:49.

maintenance allowance which has been abolished in England. We

:16:49.:16:53.

encourage private sector investment and provide security through

:16:53.:17:00.

Scottish households which included supporting growth and companies

:17:00.:17:10.
:17:10.:17:11.

through the loan fund, providing businesses with the was generous

:17:11.:17:16.

rates. Her actions against priorities help to support the

:17:16.:17:23.

Scottish economy. A clear picture is emerging of the journey Scotland

:17:23.:17:28.

has made since my last statement. Output in Scotland was contracting

:17:28.:17:34.

this time last year, but now the picture is more encouraging. Output

:17:34.:17:41.

picked up and we saw returned to positive growth last year. -- a

:17:41.:17:48.

return to positive growth. Scotland has seen an improvement in its

:17:48.:17:58.
:17:58.:18:17.

labour market with employment levels rising. There is a positive

:18:17.:18:24.

outlook for 2013, with private sector are activity expanding for

:18:24.:18:28.

the 8th consecutive month at a rate of 51.4, which is significantly

:18:28.:18:38.
:18:38.:18:53.

faster than the rate of expansion On the basis of the UK Budget

:18:53.:19:03.
:19:03.:19:10.

announcement, we are dealing with As previously notified, we will

:19:10.:19:20.
:19:20.:19:20.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 80 seconds

:19:20.:20:28.

These figures show the competent financial management and the

:20:28.:20:32.

resources at our disposal. Cabinet Secretary will now take

:20:32.:20:42.
:20:42.:20:53.

questions. I will allowed 20 Can I thank the Secretary for

:20:53.:20:57.

advanced notice of this statement and recognise that we share common

:20:57.:21:00.

ground in opposing the approach to public financing of the Tory

:21:00.:21:05.

government. We are here to scrutinise the decisions taken by

:21:05.:21:09.

the Scottish government and I would note there are a number of the

:21:09.:21:13.

missions today including any mention of the �333 million underspend in

:21:13.:21:20.

his planned programme. I have to say I am also disappointed to hear a

:21:20.:21:24.

reference to the Scottish government's notorious shovel ready

:21:24.:21:28.

programme but no update on exactly how many shovels are actually in the

:21:28.:21:31.

ground. Turning to the announcement the Minister has made the Cabinet

:21:32.:21:36.

Secretary points out he has committed 158 million of his 100 and

:21:36.:21:43.

79 million underspend. The majority seems to come from an underspend to

:21:43.:21:47.

housing budget and has been recommitted to housing along with an

:21:47.:21:52.

additional 5.9 million which is to be welcomed. Given that he revisited

:21:52.:21:56.

his housing budget cuts four times in the last financial year, he tried

:21:56.:22:00.

again in the budget this year and here he is trying to have a sixth

:22:00.:22:04.

attempt to rewrite the wrong. Does he not think it would have been

:22:04.:22:07.

better to have listened to those in the industries in the first place

:22:07.:22:16.

and have incremented Labour's budget for housing. I will ask you here he

:22:16.:22:20.

is content with this budget this year because it is the lowest number

:22:20.:22:24.

of housing completions since the depression. Can I ask the secretary

:22:24.:22:29.

why there is nothing in his statement on the impact on further

:22:29.:22:33.

education, in particular can I ask him to explain the relationship

:22:33.:22:37.

between his cuts to Scotland's colleges and the 700 jobs lost in

:22:37.:22:41.

further education in the last year alone?

:22:41.:22:44.

That was Labour's Ken Macintosh in the chamber.

:22:44.:22:49.

Let's get some political analysis from Brian Taylor who has been

:22:49.:22:55.

watching the statement at Holyrood. Thanks for joining. Let us rewind to

:22:55.:22:59.

the beginning. An awful lot of facts and figures there. Can you help put

:22:59.:23:06.

it in text. What was John Swinney putting out their? He was opening up

:23:06.:23:10.

his books and shivering as the underspend.

:23:10.:23:14.

First of all, Scotland has a blog budget, a fixed sum. Ministers often

:23:15.:23:19.

say they are operating within a fixed sum. They can vary it with tax

:23:19.:23:24.

powers that Holyrood has but no one since the establishment of Holyrood

:23:24.:23:29.

does so because it is thought to have brought in more grief. Within

:23:30.:23:35.

that fixed sum you have to spend short because there is currently no

:23:35.:23:39.

borrowing powers. They are coming through soon. John Swinney was

:23:39.:23:43.

announcing that they had fallen short by �179 million in terms of

:23:44.:23:49.

expenditure. He then announced and confirmed that he anticipated by

:23:49.:23:57.

shrewd alkylation that there would be a sum along those lines of a.

:23:57.:24:05.

Apparently that is already budgeted for. He has �21 million extra to

:24:05.:24:08.

deal with in capital expenditure and he was hinting fairly firmly that

:24:08.:24:12.

that would go towards the housing sector. He was indicating that one

:24:12.:24:18.

of the recipients and Ken Macintosh responding that housing had been

:24:18.:24:24.

neglected. I think the rules of the game state

:24:24.:24:27.

that �200 million is the maximum cap. That is allowed so you get up

:24:27.:24:31.

to that point before any of the cash goes to Westminster.

:24:31.:24:36.

In years gone by, we had and your flexibility which was a limited

:24:36.:24:40.

system by which many generally underspent went back to the

:24:40.:24:45.

Treasury. That resulted into things. Either a rush at the end of the year

:24:45.:24:50.

to catch up, to spend money and perhaps that's being necessarily

:24:51.:24:58.

wise, or a shortfall that went back to Downing Street. Under the new

:24:58.:25:02.

arrangement negotiated between Scotland and the Treasury, there is

:25:02.:25:05.

the capacity to carry forward that many. As we heard from John

:25:05.:25:09.

Swinney, he has already calculated that there would be a carry-forward

:25:09.:25:15.

son and has budgeted for that. We have other elements to the statement

:25:15.:25:19.

as well and the fact that he is expecting there to be further cuts.

:25:19.:25:23.

In terms of the Barnett formula, those departments in England and the

:25:23.:25:29.

rest of the UK on which Barnett is based, there has tended to be

:25:29.:25:32.

support for education and support for the health service. The impact

:25:32.:25:37.

upon Scotland may be mitigated eye that, if the cuts for particularly,

:25:37.:25:43.

on defence. There is a fight going on there and that doesn't fall

:25:43.:25:47.

through in the Scottish government budget. There could be an impact

:25:47.:25:53.

there. We had the second element. The statement on the carry-forward

:25:53.:25:57.

of money and secondly the further cuts to come. The indication of the

:25:57.:26:02.

general state of the economy and it was relatively upbeat from John

:26:02.:26:07.

Swinney. You mentioned that he is perhaps

:26:07.:26:09.

anticipating more cuts from Westminster but how much money do

:26:09.:26:13.

you think he has got to play with for next year at the top of the

:26:13.:26:17.

programme we were talking about a key for Scotland next year and he

:26:17.:26:21.

probably wants to have a bit extra in his back pocket?

:26:21.:26:25.

He probably does but it doesn't look as though he will have it. There is

:26:25.:26:29.

some carry-forward but that is budgeted for. The expectation is

:26:29.:26:33.

when the Chancellor gives us his spending statement in the next

:26:33.:26:37.

couple of weeks, that will result in yet further cuts for Scotland. That

:26:37.:26:41.

could be mitigated by a calculation as to where precisely the axe

:26:41.:26:47.

falls. OK, Brian. A computed issue made

:26:47.:26:51.

simple. Thank you. Now two prime ministers questions

:26:51.:26:57.

where banking dominated affairs. The prime ministers said the government

:26:57.:27:01.

would amend the Banking Bill to impose penalties on those who fall

:27:01.:27:06.

foul of the law. His comments came after a range of MPs said reckless

:27:06.:27:10.

bankers should be jailed and an end to rewarding failure.

:27:10.:27:16.

On the specific issues of criminal penalties, I am glad he supports the

:27:16.:27:20.

proposal but will he confirm for the house this important issue that the

:27:20.:27:22.

government will put down the appropriate amendments to the

:27:22.:27:25.

Banking Bill which is currently going through Parliament to make

:27:25.:27:30.

sure this gets on the statute book as soon as possible.

:27:30.:27:34.

We will be using that Bill to take these important steps and the key

:27:34.:27:38.

thing is we have that opportunity. First of all because we have said

:27:38.:27:42.

that there should be a Parliamentary enquiry that can be done rapidly

:27:42.:27:47.

rather than a public enquiry that he supported. If we had done that, we

:27:47.:27:51.

would just about be getting giving with the enquiry. Instead of that we

:27:51.:27:54.

have a good enquiry with good results and we can have strong

:27:54.:27:57.

legislation as well. Just to be clear, if the government

:27:57.:28:02.

doesn't put down them as criminal penalties, we will in the Banking

:28:02.:28:08.

Bill and we will make sure they have them. I think the Prime Minister

:28:08.:28:15.

praises the Parliamentary and on the but let's turn to one of his

:28:15.:28:18.

recommendations from last year's report. It says the government

:28:18.:28:21.

should legislate for a general power to break up the banks, breaking up

:28:21.:28:27.

high risk casino banking from high street banks. We think it's right,

:28:27.:28:30.

the commission thinks it's right that the government is so far

:28:30.:28:33.

refusing to increment. The part-time Chancellor is trying to give advice

:28:33.:28:40.

to the Prime Minister! We think it's right. We think it's right. The

:28:40.:28:44.

commission thinks it's right. But the government has so far refused to

:28:44.:28:51.

implement that recommendation. Why isn't the government doing it?

:28:51.:28:54.

First of all, I would rather listen to my Chancellor than listen to his

:28:54.:29:00.

neighbour the Chatto Chancellor. -- the shadow chancellor. We remember

:29:00.:29:06.

his advice. 125% mortgages. That's fine! A knighthood for Fred Goodwin.

:29:06.:29:12.

That's fine! The biggest tanking best in British history. That's

:29:12.:29:17.

fine! He was the city minister when all of this went wrong! And it is

:29:17.:29:21.

this government that is clearing up the mess. We wouldn't have these

:29:21.:29:23.

results without this excellent enquiry commissioned by this

:29:23.:29:28.

government. We wouldn't be able to legislate if we didn't have the

:29:28.:29:31.

excellent and King Bill provided by this government and in terms of his

:29:31.:29:36.

question, we are putting a ring fence around retail banks, something

:29:36.:29:39.

that in 13 years of a Labour government, although they were both

:29:39.:29:43.

in the Treasury, they never got round to it.

:29:43.:29:49.

I say to the Prime Minister we are not going to take lectures from the

:29:49.:29:57.

guy who was the advisor on Black Wednesday in 1992.

:29:57.:30:00.

May I warmly commend him for being the first Conservative prime

:30:00.:30:05.

minister ever to commit to a referendum on Europe. And for

:30:05.:30:07.

leading a government that has done more than any other government to

:30:07.:30:12.

tackle welfare dependency, to reduce immigration and to bring in

:30:12.:30:18.

academies. It is showing that there can be conservative, popular and

:30:18.:30:23.

right at the same time. I am sure the prime minister would

:30:23.:30:26.

like to wish all players the best for Wimbledon but looking to the

:30:26.:30:31.

future, as he backed the schools tennis programme that is now in over

:30:31.:30:41.

16,000 schools, including a number in my constituency, to help us find

:30:41.:30:45.

a home-grown champion? I think my honourable friend is

:30:45.:30:48.

quite right for this. Let us congratulate Andy Murray for his

:30:48.:30:54.

victory at Queen 's club and wish him well for the Wimbledon

:30:54.:30:57.

tournament. I think we should commend the LTA for the work they

:30:57.:31:01.

are doing to try and make tennis much more of a mass participation

:31:01.:31:05.

sport. I see it in the primary school my children go to come where

:31:05.:31:11.

more tennis is being played. The lawn tennis Association has two

:31:11.:31:15.

satisfy sport England and all the funding bodies that they are doing

:31:15.:31:20.

everything they can to do that. Let's stay at Westminster now and

:31:20.:31:24.

speak to our correspondence there. Good afternoon, David. A busy Prime

:31:24.:31:29.

Minister 's questions. Let us look at the banking report. It seemed as

:31:29.:31:34.

though the prime minister almost took the wind out of Ed Miliband's

:31:34.:31:39.

fails when he said he was agreeing to grim nod penalties for bankers?

:31:39.:31:44.

It was one of those occasions when somebody stand-ups and says, will

:31:44.:31:51.

you do this? OK. Will you do that? Yes. The banking commission report

:31:51.:31:57.

is highly significant, running to more than 500 pages and coming up

:31:57.:32:02.

with a number of recommendations. One of them is the bankers who are

:32:02.:32:05.

found guilty of reckless misconduct could be jailed and another one as

:32:05.:32:09.

well that their bonuses could be deferred for up to ten years. You

:32:09.:32:13.

can actually find out what banks have been up to. I think widespread

:32:13.:32:19.

agreement in the House of Commons that most of the recommendations the

:32:19.:32:22.

banking commission has come up with that political parties can live

:32:22.:32:26.

with. The government will have time to formally assessed that and come

:32:26.:32:30.

back with it. David Cameron is likely taking the wind out of Ed

:32:30.:32:34.

Miliband's sales by saying, yes we will legislate the current Banking

:32:34.:32:39.

Bill for this provision that those who are found guilty of reckless

:32:39.:32:44.

misconduct could face jail. I think that is one of the main things. And

:32:44.:32:48.

the fact it is going through in the Banking Bill this time means that he

:32:48.:32:55.

will be able to use that. The Prime Minister is fresh back

:32:55.:33:00.

from Northern Ireland after the G8 summit. He was updating MPs and

:33:01.:33:05.

progress made at the G8 and I think he was saying it was very much a

:33:05.:33:10.

pro-business agenda and that would be at the DNA of the G8 but they are

:33:10.:33:15.

also tackling tax avoidance. That was one of the key aspects of

:33:15.:33:19.

the G8 summit. Where they disagreed and where it was harder for David

:33:19.:33:23.

Cameron to say he had everything he wanted was to do with Syria. We know

:33:23.:33:28.

there were disagreements to do with Russia and other members of the G8

:33:28.:33:34.

on what should be done, particularly post President Assad. We got an

:33:34.:33:39.

adder dying form of words on Syria. Where David Cameron would feel a lot

:33:39.:33:47.

happier are these pledges on tackling tax avoidance. Not just on

:33:47.:33:50.

a domestic level but on an international level. There will be a

:33:50.:33:56.

register of companies and swapping of information. Those are warm

:33:56.:34:01.

words. The reality will be that when the G8 leaders and the leaders of

:34:01.:34:03.

other nations get back to their countries, whether they will put

:34:03.:34:11.

this into force. I think there is a wider issue here that perhaps in an

:34:11.:34:14.

austerity world economy, all governments are finding that if they

:34:14.:34:17.

have got large, multinational companies which are operating in

:34:17.:34:24.

those countries, that they are not seen to pay a fair amount of tax,

:34:24.:34:28.

the government have an argument that they have to make with their own

:34:28.:34:32.

taxpayers who are being asked to pay increased taxes and I think there is

:34:32.:34:36.

a feeling amongst many governments that if we are in an austerity world

:34:36.:34:40.

economy, some of these businesses will have to pay their share. I

:34:40.:34:43.

think David Cameron was very much pushing at an open door with the

:34:43.:34:48.

other G8 leaders. Finally, I think the draft, the

:34:48.:34:51.

Conservatives draft EU referendum bill was introduced in the House of

:34:51.:34:56.

Commons. There was a leaked Labour memo which said the Prime Minister

:34:56.:34:58.

didn't have the support of his backbenchers but we saw in prime

:34:58.:35:03.

ministers questions the newly knighted Sir Edward giving quite a

:35:03.:35:09.

show of support to the PM. The bill has had its first reading.

:35:09.:35:12.

That is basically where it is read out in the House of Commons. It will

:35:12.:35:17.

get its second reading in a couple of weeks on Friday the 5th of July

:35:17.:35:21.

and that is where you will see many Conservative MPs coming out and

:35:21.:35:25.

giving their support. They approve of what the Prime Minister has

:35:25.:35:28.

done. Some would like it to be a government Bill but because of the

:35:28.:35:31.

coalition deal they realise they can't have that. The second best

:35:31.:35:36.

thing is from their point of view, is a bill that has a conservative

:35:36.:35:42.

name attached to it. I think where the concern will come is later on in

:35:42.:35:45.

the Parliamentary process, if for some reason it gets talked out or if

:35:45.:35:49.

it goes to the House of Lords and it gets gunned up in the legislative

:35:49.:35:56.

progress. I think at the moment you have a situation with as regards to

:35:56.:35:59.

Europe, most Conservative MPs give him the benefit of the doubt because

:35:59.:36:09.
:36:09.:36:15.

they have now got a piece of Gillian is still with us. Let us

:36:15.:36:20.

put upon something that David was speaking about. First of all the G8.

:36:20.:36:30.
:36:30.:36:31.

It was difficult for David Cameron over the Syrian issue. But he was

:36:31.:36:34.

discussing the tax-avoidance agenda. Yes, fitting in with what the

:36:34.:36:38.

public want to see, they want to see corporation tax paid by these

:36:38.:36:44.

big companies. There is a real mood of unhappiness about companies like

:36:44.:36:48.

Starbucks not paying tax in the country it sells its goods in. He

:36:48.:36:53.

was tapping into the public mood, and there was consensus among the

:36:53.:36:57.

other world leaders, this is an issue for all countries. Business

:36:57.:37:01.

is going to help pull us out of the economic downturn, so it was a

:37:01.:37:05.

carrot-and-stick. There are benefits in the new trade deal

:37:05.:37:09.

coming between America and the EU which will benefit lots of

:37:09.:37:17.

businesses, but only the ones who are abiding by the rules. The ones

:37:17.:37:22.

who are not paying tax are going to be hit. The focus is on the tax

:37:22.:37:32.
:37:32.:37:33.

issues, and that helped gain consensus on set here. Holyrood is

:37:33.:37:37.

calling for a national strategy to tackle the problem of teenage

:37:37.:37:45.

pregnancies in Scotland. It was on the front page of the Daily Mail

:37:45.:37:50.

today. A row over proposals to get the youngest teenagers to take the

:37:50.:37:53.

contraceptive pill. It is unusual to have such high rates of teenage

:37:53.:38:00.

pregnancy, almost the highest in Western Europe. Tens of millions of

:38:00.:38:04.

pounds have been spent trying to do something about the bad rates of

:38:04.:38:08.

teenage pregnancy and there has been little movement since about

:38:08.:38:13.

1994, particularly among the youngest girls. Teenage pregnancies

:38:13.:38:22.

in girls pretty much flat lined. Come down a little bit, those under

:38:22.:38:28.

20 and 18. But it is not working. A lot of money and initiatives. This

:38:28.:38:32.

is an interesting report which has taken a lot of evidence. On one

:38:32.:38:36.

hand you have the Daily Mail response which is quite sensational,

:38:36.:38:39.

but there are a lot of people looking at the issue and saying

:38:39.:38:47.

that we need to more consistency in the education approach. Just now it

:38:47.:38:51.

is down to the schools how they teach this. They have a lot of

:38:51.:38:53.

input in the curriculum and material. It was better than others

:38:54.:38:57.

in some areas. There is a call for greater consistency where it

:38:57.:39:01.

becomes more or -- there is a call for greater consistency. Where it

:39:01.:39:06.

becomes more controversial is with younger age groups, and the

:39:06.:39:10.

availability of contraception. The committee has not called for

:39:10.:39:14.

contraception to be made available through schools, but clearly there

:39:14.:39:17.

are concerns that if 13 year-olds are having sex and needing

:39:17.:39:23.

contraception that there are other issues at stake here. Education is

:39:23.:39:26.

important and availability of contraception is important, but

:39:26.:39:30.

this is a much wider issue, in which parents need to be involved a

:39:30.:39:34.

lot more. We leave it to the schools, but other European

:39:34.:39:39.

countries do not. You need to have more social support and family

:39:39.:39:45.

support in these areas where pregnancy is a problem. Thank you

:39:45.:39:49.

very much for highlighting some of those issues. Let us get some

:39:49.:39:57.

political reaction from three MSPs. We have Bob Doris, Drew Smith from

:39:57.:39:59.

the Scottish Labour, and Nanette Milne from the Scottish

:39:59.:40:06.

Conservatives. First of all, Bob Doris, you are in the health

:40:06.:40:09.

committee. What kind of national strategy do you think we need to

:40:09.:40:13.

try to tackle the problem of teenage pregnancy?

:40:13.:40:16.

The first thing I would say is that any new national strategy brought

:40:16.:40:20.

forward by the Scottish government should not be imposed on local

:40:20.:40:24.

authorities or health boards, but the Scottish government has to

:40:24.:40:28.

consult on that. Any new national strategy should not be biological

:40:28.:40:33.

based or based on the idea of morning-after pills or whatever,

:40:33.:40:37.

but based on the issue of relationships and respectful

:40:37.:40:41.

relationship between young people and increasing the aspirations of

:40:41.:40:46.

young people. The idea of tackling teenage pregnancy has been for too

:40:46.:40:54.

long a biological argument. Drew Smith, what are you looking for a

:40:54.:40:57.

in this national strategy? Is there a problem with this kind of

:40:57.:41:04.

strategy being imposed on people and schools? The key thing we are

:41:04.:41:07.

looking for is a renewed focus on the issue of teenage pregnancy,

:41:07.:41:13.

particularly pregnancy among girls under 16. We have not made the

:41:13.:41:18.

progress we would have hoped. We came close to meeting the target of

:41:18.:41:21.

reducing the pregnancy rate down to 6.8, but we were not able to do

:41:21.:41:26.

that, we were still just above seven. It is the renewed focus that

:41:26.:41:32.

we need to understand teenage pregnancy. There are lots of people

:41:32.:41:36.

who will become parents at a young age he will do an excellent job,

:41:36.:41:42.

but there is also an opportunity to assist people and plan and think

:41:42.:41:45.

about whether they intend to become pregnant and to try to support them

:41:45.:41:50.

to make the right decisions. Nanette Milne, the rates of teenage

:41:50.:41:55.

pregnancy is falling in Scotland. But the target has been missed.

:41:55.:41:59.

What is your solution to try to address quite an intractable

:41:59.:42:04.

problem? The target has been narrowly missed in the 16 and

:42:04.:42:08.

upwards age group, but there is a problem with the under 16 girls

:42:08.:42:14.

becoming pregnant and not wanting to be. The committee was agreed on

:42:14.:42:19.

this, and we have to look at the whole approach to sexual health and

:42:19.:42:27.

relationships education and start but quite a young age this,

:42:27.:42:35.

discussing relationships. As they get older and the sexual issue

:42:35.:42:41.

arises, then we feel that there will be -- they will be more acquit

:42:41.:42:44.

to make more positive decisions on whether they wish to become

:42:44.:42:51.

involved in sexual activity. Do you have an age limit on when

:42:51.:42:55.

contraceptive should not be handed out to children? Do you think 16

:42:55.:43:01.

should be a cut off? Handing out contraceptives to children, that is

:43:01.:43:09.

an emotive way of putting things. If people under 16 are embarking on

:43:09.:43:14.

sexual activity, they should be advised on the consequences of that

:43:14.:43:21.

and should know the consequences of it before embarking on it. They

:43:22.:43:26.

should be given proper advice. But if they do actually indulge in

:43:26.:43:30.

sexual activity and to need contraception, the committee felt

:43:30.:43:36.

generally that should be available in an accessible way to the speed

:43:36.:43:40.

will. Drew Smith, the you have a lower age limit for handing out

:43:40.:43:46.

contraceptives? The issue about sex education in schools is what is age

:43:46.:43:50.

appropriate. In terms of contraception, we need to

:43:50.:43:55.

understand where people are sexually active having access to

:43:55.:43:59.

contraception. Pregnancy is part of it but there are other issues. That

:43:59.:44:04.

is about accepting where sexual activity takes place, it should be

:44:04.:44:10.

saved. Bob Doris, the same question to use. I agree with Drew Smith, it

:44:10.:44:16.

is about being age appropriate and behaviour of young people are

:44:16.:44:18.

involved in, making sure we keep them safe. There are dancers in

:44:18.:44:23.

relation to age when his lead to tabloid newspapers and we keep this

:44:23.:44:33.
:44:33.:44:43.

issue in the round, looking at how are missing? Scotland has high rates

:44:43.:44:46.

of teenage pregnancy. I think it is in port to stress that

:44:46.:44:52.

we agree teenage pregnancy rates in Scotland are falling. They are now

:44:52.:44:56.

below the UK level but we have missed our target narrowly, in

:44:56.:45:00.

relation to under 16 is. There is more we have to do and we have to

:45:00.:45:05.

make sure we are making sure that people do not see teenage pregnancy

:45:05.:45:09.

as being inevitable and there is work going on in Teeside at the

:45:09.:45:12.

moment where they are seeing falls in teenage pregnancy in the last

:45:12.:45:19.

five years. I think we can make further inroads.

:45:19.:45:23.

When it comes to parents, how involved should they be?

:45:23.:45:26.

What the committee is making clear is a whole range of people have to

:45:26.:45:31.

be involved and schools need to take a active interest that parents are

:45:31.:45:35.

essential to it and they need to be involved in understanding decisions

:45:35.:45:40.

taken by the professionals, health boards and scores. Sometimes parents

:45:40.:45:43.

would prefer to leave it to the parents to explain some of these

:45:43.:45:46.

things but it is about supporting parents do feel they can be part of

:45:46.:45:49.

that education process for the trial.

:45:49.:45:53.

Nanette Milne, the convener of the health committee was making a point

:45:53.:45:59.

today that it is often left to teachers to teach children and they

:45:59.:46:01.

leave it feeling quite uncomfortable. How do we address

:46:01.:46:05.

that problem? I think teachers need training in

:46:05.:46:08.

this aspect but as has been said by my colleague, it is a partnership

:46:08.:46:14.

approach that is needed and people involved with growing young people

:46:14.:46:17.

should be equipped to give them the correct information at the

:46:17.:46:22.

appropriate time. OK. Nanette Milne from the Scottish

:46:22.:46:25.

Conservatives, Drew Smith from Labour and Bob Doris from the SNP.

:46:25.:46:28.

Thank you. Let's head back to the chamber. A

:46:28.:46:33.

different debate this time will stop the Victims and Witnesses Bill. It

:46:33.:46:38.

aims to improve support available and put victims interest at the

:46:38.:46:41.

heart of the justice system and ensure witnesses can fulfil their

:46:41.:46:47.

public duty. Part of that entails more CCTV links so they can give

:46:47.:46:49.

evidence without feeling threatened. Let's hear from the

:46:49.:46:59.
:46:59.:47:00.

justice secretary. Was the secretary saying that the

:47:00.:47:03.

law is not compatible and what does he have to say to the children's

:47:03.:47:06.

Commissioner who says that there is no issue with regard to children,

:47:06.:47:10.

for example. I wouldn't have laws in this country

:47:10.:47:15.

that weren't compatible because of the nature of this Parliament. I

:47:15.:47:23.

think I can chew or Mr Chisholm of that. What we do wish to do is to

:47:23.:47:27.

seek to challenge this legislation in relation to the right of the

:47:27.:47:34.

individual seeking a charge to be dealt with and what we are hoping to

:47:34.:47:39.

do is to work through a way in which we balance that of the accused but

:47:39.:47:47.

has the opportunity for variations to raise the matter with the court

:47:47.:47:53.

for the judiciary to provide. That will take away from the delivery in

:47:53.:47:58.

this bill of making sure that vulnerable witnesses and indeed

:47:58.:48:01.

witnesses have the right to express themselves. I think I can satisfy

:48:01.:48:05.

him that no matters will be made worse in terms of what he refers to

:48:05.:48:11.

in terms of children's hearing. I think we will have wider opportunity

:48:11.:48:14.

to work upon the good work that will be provided for vulnerable

:48:14.:48:19.

witnesses, equally, letting it with a few number of cases where there

:48:19.:48:25.

may be a legitimate right at least two but that objection, ultimately,

:48:25.:48:28.

to be considered by the judiciary. I will give further consideration to

:48:28.:48:33.

this issue and I can confirm my officials have begun discussions

:48:33.:48:40.

with... By all means. I think the Cabinet Secretary for

:48:40.:48:44.

giving way. Would he share the concerns organisations like Scottish

:48:44.:48:48.

women's aid that the challenge to the use of special measures may

:48:48.:48:54.

actually increase circumstances of anxiety and reduce confidence among

:48:54.:48:57.

witnesses about giving their evidence in court?

:48:57.:49:03.

I don't believe so. I believe this will provide the overall desire of

:49:03.:49:07.

what these agencies want. I met with Scottish women's aid recently. It

:49:07.:49:11.

will provide that but it will ensure compliance to ensure that we are

:49:11.:49:16.

away to some safety net and I do think this matter can be dealt with

:49:16.:49:21.

appropriately, in balance. That is why we have started discussions but

:49:21.:49:24.

I can give you the assurance that these discussions will not simply be

:49:24.:49:28.

with the ground but they will be with agencies such as Scottish

:49:28.:49:33.

women's aid to ensure we have the right balance. To put a duty on that

:49:33.:49:36.

is organisations, to set out standards of service for the end and

:49:37.:49:40.

witnesses, the committee suggested the standard should be set out in

:49:40.:49:43.

statutory guidance to be approved by parliament along with details of the

:49:43.:49:48.

supporting mechanism. It will be possible to set out each individual

:49:48.:49:53.

set of circumstances in this way and I have been clear that these must be

:49:53.:49:57.

organisation specific and I am concerned such an approach will slow

:49:57.:49:59.

down the established that of the standard and I'm satisfied the

:49:59.:50:03.

organisations will work together with input from victim support

:50:03.:50:07.

organisations to create robust standards without the need for

:50:07.:50:13.

further Parliamentary scrutiny. I have noted to the committee that I

:50:13.:50:15.

am willing to consider further whether there should be a more

:50:15.:50:23.

formal reporting mechanism monitor how it is working. Finally, I was

:50:23.:50:29.

pleased to note the committee view that a compelling case has not been

:50:29.:50:32.

made in the establishment of a commissioner. This is a view I

:50:32.:50:36.

shared with several organisations including victim support Scotland

:50:36.:50:41.

and Scottish women's aid, given the excellent work carried out by Al

:50:41.:50:44.

victim support organisations in Scotland and I continue to believe

:50:44.:50:48.

that the establishment of such a post would be deportation of

:50:48.:50:52.

effort, an extra layer of bureaucracy that would mean that

:50:52.:50:56.

limited resources will be better used in helping victims of crime. I

:50:56.:51:01.

would like to turn to provision in the bill for the establishment and

:51:01.:51:03.

operation of the National confidential forum. I would like to

:51:03.:51:10.

thank the health and sport commission. I would like to thank

:51:10.:51:14.

the witnesses who provided evidence and former residents of childcare

:51:14.:51:18.

institutions who have shown great fortitude in coming forward to share

:51:18.:51:20.

their views. We have listened with care and attention to those views

:51:20.:51:25.

which will help ensure that the National confidential forum makes a

:51:25.:51:28.

real difference to the lives of people placed in institutional care

:51:28.:51:35.

as children by helping to prove their health and well-being and

:51:35.:51:41.

contributing to the improvement of provision and support. I am

:51:41.:51:44.

delighted there is widespread support for the establishment of the

:51:44.:51:49.

forum and I'm heartened by the recognition of the value of

:51:49.:51:54.

acknowledgement to people who are placed in institutional care as

:51:54.:51:57.

children and in particular, survivors of abuse and neglect.

:51:57.:52:01.

Those survivors have been asking for their experiences to be heard and

:52:01.:52:06.

acknowledged for years and we are responding. In 2010 we acknowledged

:52:06.:52:13.

the pilot. This pilot forum which only operated for a matter of months

:52:14.:52:17.

was attended by nearly 100 former residents of a care home. The

:52:17.:52:21.

evaluation of the experience showed clearly it was a positive value and

:52:21.:52:25.

benefits to those who took part and they felt hurt and believed. It is

:52:25.:52:31.

now our intention with this bill to extend that opportunity to all

:52:31.:52:36.

people faced in institutional care as children in Scotland. The

:52:36.:52:40.

experience of time to be heard clearly demonstrates that

:52:40.:52:46.

acknowledgement is of value and is not a second-class option. It also

:52:46.:52:50.

shows that the benefits for those people are not contingent on access

:52:50.:52:57.

remedies. For some people, just as -- Justice remedies serve little

:52:57.:53:03.

appeal. It was the Scottish government that approached to

:53:03.:53:07.

develop a human rights framework to inform the development of what has

:53:07.:53:12.

become the MCS. It was this approach would lead to the interaction

:53:12.:53:15.

mentioned by several stakeholders who gave evidence. The Scottish

:53:15.:53:22.

government is participating with an open mind. We do not intend to wait

:53:22.:53:28.

for remedies which arise to take forward the establishment.

:53:28.:53:32.

People should not be denied the opportunity to provide that

:53:33.:53:35.

acknowledgement and give that benefit. In conclusion, presiding

:53:35.:53:40.

officer... I'm sorry, I am being asked to wind up. I welcome the wide

:53:40.:53:47.

support to the bill to date from justice and health arguments. We are

:53:47.:53:57.
:53:57.:53:57.

welcome to debate at stage one and that debate is open. I think the

:53:57.:53:58.

presiding officer for her indulgence.

:53:58.:54:04.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary. I now call on Christine Grahame who will

:54:04.:54:10.

speak on the behalf of the justice secretary.

:54:10.:54:14.

I speak for the Justice Committee. The lead committee in consideration

:54:14.:54:18.

of this bill. Can I put something on the record before of that. I think I

:54:18.:54:22.

feel a letter to standards procedures coming on. I've never

:54:22.:54:25.

understood why in a stage one debate, the minister gives a

:54:25.:54:29.

response to the conveners report on the half of the committee before the

:54:29.:54:32.

conveners has reported to the chamber. It would be much more

:54:32.:54:37.

useful if I got to say my stuff and then you have got to say, if you

:54:37.:54:43.

will forgive me, your response afterwards. Much is probably

:54:43.:54:48.

pre-empted but off I go anyway. There are two main purposes of the

:54:48.:54:53.

bill. First is to improve the experience of witnesses and victims

:54:53.:54:55.

and the focus of our consideration. The second is to create a National

:54:55.:55:04.

confidential forum. I am sure that will be talked about. The

:55:04.:55:07.

committee, my committee has already written to the health and sports

:55:07.:55:12.

committee saying we should anticipate stage two, as we took no

:55:12.:55:15.

evidence in respect of that part. That seems an appropriate division

:55:15.:55:20.

of the bill. I thank those providing written submissions, giving oral

:55:20.:55:23.

evidence to the committee and the committee members, always a pleasure

:55:23.:55:30.

to chair the Justice Committee. Can I thank all those victims who spoke

:55:30.:55:32.

to the committee members about their individual experiences of the

:55:32.:55:36.

criminal justice system to bring a specially arranged private and

:55:36.:55:40.

informal discussion. He themes from that session reflected by the

:55:40.:55:44.

committee during its formal scrutiny of the girl and I know how difficult

:55:44.:55:49.

it was for those people to speak to us about their experiences and in

:55:49.:55:53.

fact, for many, although it happened five and ten years previous, they

:55:53.:55:56.

were reliving them. It showed you the pain of the event and the

:55:56.:56:02.

experience that the justice system had just gone below the surface. As

:56:02.:56:08.

the Cabinet Secretary has said, I will not say that more than once,

:56:08.:56:10.

committee has supported the general principles of the bill. It provides

:56:10.:56:15.

much-needed support for victims and witnesses and many people in that

:56:15.:56:20.

situation had hoped to never be in court in those positions and it is a

:56:20.:56:24.

difficult position for them. That was Christine Grahame, the Fina

:56:24.:56:27.

of the Justice Committee speaking live in Parliament. I am joined by

:56:27.:56:33.

Gillian Bowditch, our physical commentator for the afternoon. That

:56:33.:56:37.

is the stage one debate going on in Parliament. The Victims and

:56:37.:56:40.

Witnesses Bill. I think victims have been calling for an improvement in

:56:40.:56:46.

their rightful sometime -- and rights for some time.

:56:46.:56:50.

Yes. The bill will be widely welcomed and anything that can make

:56:50.:56:58.

a difficult experience easier, and a , located experience, often the

:56:58.:57:04.

people who has experienced the crime is often marginalised. It is about

:57:04.:57:10.

the organisation of the justice system. Having said that,

:57:10.:57:15.

particularly when it comes to child witnesses, and has a good

:57:15.:57:20.

arbitration. We haven't seen some of the problems that they have had down

:57:20.:57:24.

in England when child witnesses have been very badly treated in the court

:57:24.:57:28.

system so in terms of children, I think we do quite well but in terms

:57:28.:57:32.

of all victims, this is a welcome Bill and I am sure it will go some

:57:33.:57:38.

way to helping. Let's just turn our attention to one

:57:38.:57:47.

other story. The Aberdeen Don said by-election. The SNP candidate is

:57:47.:57:51.

the favourite but could there be a political upset?

:57:51.:57:55.

I think it is unlikely the SNP is not going to win this election and

:57:55.:58:01.

Bryan Adams is a well respected and well liked MP. He had a large

:58:01.:58:06.

majority and it would be a huge political upset if the SNP were not

:58:06.:58:09.

to win tomorrow. Where it becomes interesting, I think, is that you

:58:09.:58:13.

look at what the majority is after the selection. What do Labour have

:58:13.:58:17.

to do to be able to claim victory and at what stage can they say, we

:58:17.:58:25.

have had the majority, or whatever, and claim victory. The sideshow is

:58:25.:58:31.

UKIP. It has become a bit of an issue wherever the leader goes.

:58:31.:58:37.

Thanks for that. That's all we have time for now. Join me next week at

:58:37.:58:42.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS