21/11/2013 Politics Scotland

MSPHello, a very warm welcome to the Scottish parliament here at

Holyrood. Only one underlying topic, the White Paper on independence

which we expect on Tuesday. That and perhaps the views it dressed by

Carwyn Jones, the Welsh first Minister, who does not fancy a

post-independent sterling zone. Questions to the First Minister is

the first subject of this project. If those companies get that level of

training, if you can get into the North Sea, you can drill anywhere in

the world, that will help global operations not just in Scotland but

in Canada, Nigeria and wherever else they have operations. We take this

extraordinarily seriously, that Scotland's expertise will help

companies across the world, we hope to do that to the great training

institutes we have in this country. We now move to first Minister

questions. What engagements does he have planned for the rest of the

day? Engagements to take forward the government's programme for Scotland.

This week, the Institute of fiscal studies, a respected independent

think tank often quoted by the First Minister, said because of falling

North Sea oil revenues and an ageing population, an independent Scotland

would faces significant tax rises or public spending cuts. I do not

suppose any of us will get an answer but with a cock of the head and an

indignant sideways look, could the First Minister tell us why they are

scaremongering like this? I thought, as the ISS indicates, it

would increase the tax base by growing the economy and generating

extra revenue. I do not know if she is aware of this, but on the model

that the EIS tests were using, it suggests the United Kingdom will be

in deficit for every one of the next 50 years, the next half-century. And

then indicates the UK governments will have to raise taxation or

reduce expenditure to meet that sustainable position, that is what

the model tells you. I think instead of looking at that, what we should

be looking out in Scotland is how we will change the circumstances of the

country by using investment to grow the economy, to generate more jobs,

more revenue and give us a sustainable future. They are just

asking us to look at the real world. Why would we bother with that

malarkey when we can make things up a cigar along? -- as we go along?

Presumably how we will deal with an ageing population, we will all just

get younger and independents. ?300,000 worth of oil of you lay for

each man, woman and child. The IFS says even in the most optimistic

forecasts, income tax would have to go up by 8p or VAT rise to 27% to

feel the fiscal black hole. Chuckling at his own jokes, as he

likes to do, and selectively quoting lines that suits his argument, I am

sure he is looking for them right now, selectively quoting lines that

suit his argument, that -- could the First Minister tell us why the

people of Scotland should believe him rather then the evidence of

their own eyes? Let's talk about what is agreed in the IFS report. On

page nine, which confirms that Scotland pays more per head in the

UK at the moment, and page 11, which confirms Scotland is in a stronger

fiscal position and the rest of the UK. The average revenues raised by

person in the UK -- in Scotland, prices were higher than the UK in a

whole. The IFS has validated an argument which I have brought this

chamber many times from the government, economic revenue

service, their forecast, that Scotland more than pays its way in

the United Kingdom at the moment. If we take the last five years that has

been billions of pounds which could have been invested in Scottish

public services, or load the rate of borrowing or accommodation of both.

But because of the position within the United Kingdom, these results

have not been available to Scotland. Our case is simple, instead of not

having these resources available, why do we not invest in the

economy, grow productivity growth exports? Make sure we have got the

growth in the economy which generate more revenue? Then we will not be

able to have the dreadful future forecasts over the next 50 years for

the UK by the IFS's own forecast, which says it will be in deficit for

the next 50 years. Johanne Lamont says an independent Scotland would

change the age structure of the country. How would we do that?

Perhaps we could do that by allowing young Scots who wants to work in

this country to have the opportunity to escape in Scotland! Perhaps we

could do it by not kicking out of the country the many skilled young

people who come to study at our universities, desperately wants to

work for a time permanently in Scotland but are kicked out by the

Borders agency? Wouldn't that helped change the age structure? But of

course, these things must be right because they are controlled from

London. And Johann Lamont backs control of immigration policy from

London which would consign us to that. In the central forecast of the

IFS, it postulates posterior -- population growth in Scotland 4%

over the next 50 years. The of Scotland has grown by 5% over the

last ten years. What the IFS does tell us, if we remain trapped in the

policy is governed by Westminster, we have got a very poor prospect

indeed for Scotland. If we grow the economy, but investment in, then we

have a bright and certain future. Another of the First Minister's

tricks is to go on and on answering a question he was not asked. Only

the First Minister, the IFS says in its most optimistic forecast, income

tax and VAT would have to go up to fill the fiscal black hole. Only the

First Minister could say that the IFS validates his edition. It does

not. Eye would not be surprised if there are convicted Enron executives

across the United States at this moment planning appeals saying, I

know we have fiddled figures, but Alex Salmond has it to a whole new

level. With every... With every economic paper the First Minister

publishes, Fred Goodwin must feel a day closer to redemption. Each

prospectus, each one must make Bernie Madoff spit out his prison

breakfast in aberration. So, feeling free to quote a former Labour

Chancellor or digging up a blog he was trawling through last week, or

some more selective quotes like we got there, can the First Minister

just explained this to us? White is it that the fifth chakra why is it

that the fiscal uphold the IFS exposed actually does not exist, and

there is nothing to worry about after all? Can I point out, Johann

Lamont, I quoted from the IFS because I think it is very helpful

in agreeing the current position. The IFS backs the Scottish

government figures in showing that Scotland more than pays its way

within the United Kingdom. I hear from the Tory benches it is not

true. I have quoted one quote already. The quote on page 11 points

out that Scotland is exceeded revenues by ?1550 per person. That

is a direct quote from the IFS. Let's agree that over the last five

years, over that period, Scotland has more than paid its way within

the United Kingdom. I pointed out to a macro that I do not think the

population structure of this country is a given. I think the population

structure you would be enormously improved if we did not refuse young

Scots the opportunity to work in their own country and if we allowed

other skilled people, many of whom we have educated, to work in

Scotland. That would bring about a substantial important change in the

sort of challenges facing all European economies that the IFS was

indicating. I have got substantial admiration for the Institute of

fiscal studies. Unlike Westminster politicians including Alistair

Darling who have dismissed various reports of the IFS, or the Deputy

prime minister, for that matter, who accused them of... This is Nick

Clegg, of distorted nonsense. Taking the highly unusual step of attacking

the IFS, describing its measures as distorted and complete nonsense.

That is exactly why I pointed out on the basis of the IFS report, we can

now beat reasonably certain that the arguments we have been putting

forward that Scotland are in a stronger fiscal position than the

rest of the UK are validated over the last five years. What happens

over the next 50 years will depend on the policies pursued in this

country. And that in turn will depend on whether we have got

control of the policies set in the country. Let's get control of these

economic levers, increased volatility and invest in our

economy. Let's grow the Scottish economy. -- increase productivity.

It is not just guilty of selective quoting, he is guilty of selective

thinking. The problem with the First Minister, he says the IFS is helpful

but only to the extent that it agrees with him. We know the

backbenchers are only helpful to the First Minister when they agree with

him. He really had to look at what all of the IFS study says and take

it on board. Just when he started his campaign, the First Minister is

going to the cinema on Tuesday. What is he going to see? Honey I shrunk

the fiscal gap? If the First Minister is to be believed, we will

not just be a new country after independence, he will invent a new

arithmetic. While in every other country in the world, the choice is

between tax rises or cuts in spending, Alex Salmond will have you

believe we are the only country, the only country with a future like

this. How big a tax cuts can we give to big business, and how much more

can we spend on good things? Isn't it the case that at the very heart

of next week's White Paper, and at the heart of everything this

government does, is this belief. That if the First Minister and his

colleagues say something confidently and often enough, no matter how

wrong it is, the people of Scotland will be daft enough to believe it.

Let me try another quote from the IFS which, Johann Lamont will say it

is selective, but I think it underlines the point I have been

making. They acknowledge that these things are uncertain but they could

evolve differently if Scotland was independent rather than part of the

UK. In addition, they could be substantially affected by policies

chosen by the government of an independent Scotland. That is

basically what I'm saying. Johann Lamont says you have to take the

choice is between cutting spending and increasing taxation. That would

be the choice, if that was the Labour Party position, according to

the IFS analysis, with a deficit in every one of the next 50 years, we

know now if Johann Lamont has any influence, we know what the policy

of the next Labour government would be on that particular argument. I do

not think that Johann Lamont is in a particularly good position to talk

about economic advisers or the real world. Fred Goodwin was the economic

adviser to Alistair Darling, not to be. The current economic adviser is

the Reverend Paul Flowers. I do not think that is going to give us a

tremendous indication of what the future should hold. And in terms of

the real world, what is happening in the real world at the present

moment, is that Labour figure after Labour figure is saying exactly what

they think of the Labour Party's current coalition with the Tories.

For example, the Labour Party chairperson, labour activists simply

cannot stomach working alongside the Conservatives in the no campaign. In

the real world, key Labour figures are coming out in favour of the yes

campaign. That is what is happening in the real world. As the White

Paper is launched next week, that campaign will be reinforced. Why?

Because this party, this covenant has ambition for this government. We

think we can invest in the future, grow the economy and give all of our

people a decent future. Question two, Ruth Davidson. I will ask the

first minister when he won the meet the Secretary of State in the

future. No plans in the future. Nothing that has been said of the

last quarter of an hour. Takes away the fact that the IFS report said

clearly that an independent Scotland would start life with such a gap in

its balance sheet that taxes would have to rise or spending would have

to be slashed. Those are similar findings to the MBR, the CPP are,

the national interests you come -- and any number of any other

academics and economists who care to mention. Can I ask the Holyrood --

the First Minister came to such conclusions? Is it part of some vast

right-wing conspiracy or have they just done the sums? I think Ruth

Davidson's interpretation is entirely wrong. The IFS point is not

that the current budgetary fiscal position in Scotland is worse than

the United Kingdom, they actually say it is better than that of the

United Kingdom. Under their optimistic scenario it will be

better up to 2040, according to the IFS figures. What they argue is that

Scotland faces the challenges of every European economy. They say an

ageing population is going to cause this -- considerable difficulty. I

would argue that the answer to that is to grow the Scottish population

by allowing people who want to work in this country, people who have

grown up in this country, the opportunity to work in their own

country and by allowing these many thousands of skilled people who want

to work in Scotland to work in Scotland as opposed to being thrown

out by Ruth Davidson's colleagues south of the border. If we are going

to address the long-term challenges that the IFS indicate, we know full

well what waiters in the United Kingdom. Perhaps some of these

things would come to pass if that is what happens in the United Kingdom.

The policy levers and ambition for this country, we can create a new

and better future for ourselves. Presiding Officer, picking out half

a sentence for page 11, repeating it again and again might be a life raft

of a debating point but it does not change the headline message of the

report which was that even to begin to balance the books in an

independent Scotland, there must be a huge spending cut or a tax rise

equivalent to VAT of 27% or a 9% hike in income tax. The inconvenient

truth for the First Minister is that the IFS is not alone in its

analysis. Independent think tanks,, economist, financial experts,

business groups, trade bodies are lining up and seeing the same

things. The books to not balance, the currency is not secure and the

oil is a finite resource. ROAMING

-- GROANING the Prime Minister -- First Minister is sticking his

fingers in his ears and his argument with more holes in it than Rab C

Nesbitt's fest. All of the report is saying one

thing and Alex Salmond is seeing another. Why should voters close

their eyes, cross their fingers and take a punt on the far-fetched

things? The only thing Ruth Davidson left out was a reference to Doctor

Who. I understand it is actually being simultaneously broadcast in 50

countries. 75. being simultaneously broadcast in 50

of 25 since I started this sentence! I think all of the dismal forecasts

of Ruth Davidson required to be challenged. I know the Tory party,

the premised, the Deputy Prime Minister, I am not doing that, I am

just pointing out what the IFS said. Ruth Davidson cited the fact that in

the IFS report it validates something that she has never

publicly admitted, as far as I know, that Scotland is more than pays its

way and over the last five years, many billions which could have been

used to invest in the economy have gone south, in every sense. I know

is inconvenient truth but the letters in the report. Let's talk

about what IFS says about the future. This is Paul Johnson, the

director, in order to avoid problems for modern road, you need to make

some changes in the short run. These are perfectly was able changes,

despite what is happening at the moment, as I say, this is not

unusual among developed countries. They are facing, as a whole, these

kind of challenges. Now that I have indicated how we in this Government

would face this Government in an independent Scotland, we would go up

economy, the tax base, the country, by growing the economy. I agree that

everything we stay with United Kingdom and allow the Home Office to

fling out talented people who want to work in this country, if we deny

young Scots the opportunity to work in their own country then I have no

doubt the future is Scotland, as indicated by some of the IFS's

forecast. But there is an alternative. That alternative is to

believe in the resources and the ability of the people of this

country, invest in that future and grow the economy. Ruth Davidson

remarkably, for a conservative audition, said she felt I was alone

in this August. The reason I am here is that by a substantial

overwhelming verdict of the Scottish people be elected this Government

and they give their verdict time and time again on the prospects of the

Conservative party of Scotland. When Johann Lamont said about the ageing

profile of Scotland, I thought she was talking about the Conservative

party! The reason this Government was elected as the people of

Scotland know that this is a country with ingenuity and ability. Our

people are an ingenious people. We have the ability. They also that

having vast natural resources in oil and gas is an asset, not a

liability. If you combine these two things with an ingenious population

then you can make a success of your economy. It is that ambition and

belief which will be reflected in the white paper and reflected in the

votes of the people of Scotland next year. The First Minister will be

aware that on Tuesday, 280 homes in Greenock lost their power and for

houses were set on fire, putting the ball's lives of risk, due to metal

thieves. The consequences go on in that all of the circuit boards of

the central heating boilers have been blown and will have to be

replaced by significant investment. -- putting people's lives at risk.

This is a part, as he knows, of a growing trend. Scottish Power have

reported that over 800 substations now have been subject to attacks

since 2011 and 70,000 homes in Scotland have been affected. While

we appreciate the Scottish Government is looking at legislation

and it can work to address these issues, can he give us an assurance

that that legislation will be brought forward as soon as

possible. And in the meantime, assure action between the police and

Scottish Power to ensure that we take action against these reckless

people were putting people's lives in danger. I am very much aware of

the incident and aware of not just the inconvenience but danger it

would cause to his constituents by a disgraceful theft of metal. I can

bring him the assurance that we will bring forward legislation at the

earliest opportunity but in terms of current action, in terms of police

action and action which is co-ordinated by Police Scotland and

the transport police and in terms of the Justice Secretary and Scottish

Power is specifically on the issue of protection and security of power

lines, that that action will be taken. I agree that it is a very

serious situation. What makes it all the more galling is that actual cost

or value of the theft was from tens of pounds. But it put the lives of

hundreds of people under substantial inconvenience and some into

substantial danger. That makes it all the more deplorable. To ask the

First Minister what issues will be discussed at the next meeting of

Cabinet? Issues of importance for the people of Scotland. Does he

think police officers are being taken off the streets to backfill

civilian jobs? I agree with what the Chief Constable has said on a number

of occasions, that is not people see of Police Scotland. If he had

actually read what the Chief Constable had said yesterday, he

would not have said just what he has said to the chamber. He was actually

a lot more clear about this before, as well. He said it was utter

nonsense and the bus by the Chief Constable said yesterday that it was

happening on a daily basis. -- and the Chief Constable said yesterday.

Police officers have been taken off the streets. Add to that list of

police stations shut to the public, control rooms closing, Audit

Scotland have been scathing. Chiefs at loggerheads and a police

authority that says it just does not know where the savings will come

from. This grand maze was something Kenny MacAskill said was a once in a

generation opportunity. Is that not a warning to people that the next

time these people try to sell us something that is a once in a

generation opportunity, they might not believe a word they say? I say

to Willie Rennie, unfortunately for him I have read the report from the

audit committee and have the full post before me. He ordered two words

of the quote. The actual full quote is that, " we do not have a policy

or strategy to backfill police officers. Of course it happens on a

daily basis but is not part of the plan." Along with, "and most repeat,

we do not have a strategy or plan to backfill posts. I want as many

officers as possible to be on the street." These "with the Chief

Constable. Not the two words that Willie Rennie tried to take out of

context. -- these are the words of the Chief Constable. Most people

would regard the advent of Police Scotland and the ability to merge

ten organisations into one is making very substantial achievements

indeed. Most people regard the record number of police officers on

the streets and communities of Scotland... If it were up to Willie

Rennie, they would not be there at the moment. Most people would regard

a 39 year low in recorded crime as ease of Sancho achievement. If they

want to look for an alternative to the policies which are being pursued

and is common, reinforcing the front line, putting the evidence on the

front line, not the back of this. If they want to look for alternatives,

they only need to glance south of the border, what happens under the

control of Willie Rennie's colleagues, England is about to lose

almost the number of record police officers that Scotland now has. I

now have three questions. Can I ask that they be as brief as possible

and the answer is also as brief as possible. To ask the First Minister

what the Scottish Government's response is to the IFS report an

independent Scotland. As I said, given that the same for guest from

the IFS and OBR said that the UK will run a fiscal deficit for the

next 50 years then perhaps it should not be a surprise that I believe

independence is a key to changing the outcome and IFS is not in the

report that the overall test your prognosis would be substantially

affected by the policies chosen by the Government of an independent

Scotland. We choose policies for growth and achievement, that is what

make the difference. I thank the First Minister for his reply. I

spoke to Paul Johnson on Tuesday and he admitted that the IFS is going to

work October on the impact of the UK leaving the EU, following that

proposed EU referendum. Does he agree that would be a better focus

for the IFS than attempting to predict Scotland was that

circumstances in 50 years and that Scotland has a relative budget

surplus of job on five million and, and independence, could reform the

tax system to increase profit. The first but in particular violated in

the FS report, now presumably universally accepted, that that is

exactly what Scotland has lost out over the last five years. We have

been in are consistently stronger fiscal position than the UK as a

whole but have been unable to use these massive resources for the

benefit of the Scottish economy. -- but in particular what was said in

the IFS report. I believe in changing these population forecasts

by investing in the future of the economy. I think there is any number

of young Scots who want to work in this economy, if given the choice to

do so. I think it is a foolish and mistaken policy to throw people out

of the country when they want to commit themselves to Scotland. I

think we can rise to these challenges. I think we can invest in

the future. I think we can draw this economy and that is an altogether

more convincing prospect than the dismal prospects offered by the

Unionist parties, who would keep us in the current box of low growth and

low aspiration. -- I think we can make this economy grow. To ask the

First Minister when the Scottish Government will bring forward plans

to extend legislation to make will fold neglect of patients a criminal

offence. I thank you for this opportunity to address this

question. It is hugely important. That recommendation for Wolf Hall

neglected to be -- wilful neglect to be a criminal offence suggest that

it could be improved in the wake of the Mid Staffordshire scandal. It is

already an offence and religion to mental health patients in Scotland

and we are examining the best legislative banner image to extend

this to all patients. The cabin secretary for health will be

updating Parliament by the end of the year. -- the Cabinet Secretary.

The First Minister will be aware of Scottish Labour's proposal to create

an integrated health and social care Inspectorate that is independent of

government, accessible to staff and patients, allowing them to raise

their concerns and that has the powers to take tough, decisive

action. Can he explained was why he has failed to consider our proposals

so far? Proposals are considered. It is hugely important and we will be

looking at proposals as they carry forward that policy. We she has been

very unfair to the achievements of the Scottish health service,

entrance of patient data. -- I think she has been very unfair. Perhaps we

should look at what Professor Don Berwick says about patient safety

and Scotland. The Scottish patient safety programme is without doubt

one of the most ambitions patient safety initiatives and the world.

National and skill, Boldin aims, disciplined and size. Aligned

towards the common vision, making Scotland the save nation on earth

from the viewpoint of health care. That is the view of the person who's

made -- whose recommendations she has asked us to consider. We have to

consider favourably that recommendation. Of the ten key

recommendations, none of them are already in place in Scotland. They

have been in place as part of the patient safety programme. That which

she asked me about is one which we will consider very positively so

that we can live up to the Professor's estimation of patient

safety in Scotland. What is the Scottish Government doing to ensure

that statistics are accurate? Scotland is now a safer place, as we

know, supported by the 1000 additional officers, as opposed to

what is happening south of the border. There is a well-established

system in place to ensure consistent reporting of police data. The

Scottish crime recording standard provides a victim oriented approach

and insurers uniformity in crime reporting but is this throughout

Scotland. We are working closely with Police Scotland to ensure that

published purely Scotland management information is always robust. And I

think the First Minister or his response but he will know that this

week, senior police officers have spoken out against a target

culture. What assurances can he give us that gaming is accurate? From

what I've said, we can have confidence that the statistics -- in

the statistics that Police Scotland introduce stop I really would think

that given the excellence of these scissors sticks, Murdo Fraser might

just suspect that are more than 1000 extra police in the streets of

Scotland, as opposed to the thousands who have been made

redundant south of the border. Recorded crime is at a 39 year low.

Our police officers are doing an excellent job on behalf of the

people of Scotland. -- excellence of these statistics. There is a

fundamental breakdown in trust between the UK Government and the

police service of stop just as there is a fundamental breakdown in trust

between UK Government and the fire service. -- and the police service.

Just as there is. In Scotland, we value and regard the work of

uniformed services, unlike his colleagues south of the border. In

First Minister's questions. That is the cause of questions. Time

for me to say goodbye. I will hand over to David.

mistake for the Conservatives to do this. They are trying to allege

improper knowledge on our part of some influence in terms of the

Reverend Flowers. Secondly, by getting into a political dogfight,

they are going to focus attention of our relationship with the Co-op in

recent years, terms of encouraging men to take over Lloyds bank. The

latest revelation about leaning on the European Union. This was started

in the last three days by the Prime Minister. I think it has been an

error of judgement. We are going to welcome you in Scotland.