05/06/2017 The Election Wrap

Hello and welcome to The Election Wrap, your our guide

to all the campaign news of the day and inevitably security,

When you've been Home Secretary for a record breaking six

years you leave a paper trail of policies.

Well Theresa May has had to defend her record

on keeping us all safe, after Jeremy Corbyn backed

Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgeon will be grilled this evening

by a Question Time audience in Scotland, and security,

As the Tories set their sights on making substantial gains

across the Midlands, we look at two key battle grounds -

in Cheltenham and Birmingham Edgbaston.

From a landslide Tory majority to a hung parliament,

polls seem to be making all sorts of contradictory calls.

But do you think they are science or do you think they are fiction?

And mulling all this over - my guests the Guardian

columnist Owen Jones, and Katy Balls of the Spectator.

Let's bring you up to date with the latest from the campaign

trail, and understandably, the focus has been on preventing

future terrorist attacks, after the grim events

Jeremy Corbyn's been campaigning in the north-east,

saying he'd back calls for the Prime Minister

That she was responsible as Home Secretary,

But he clarified his comments in an interview

What I'm saying is there is an election on now, there's a choice

I'm articulating what is a deep anger amongst those people

that have seen 20,000 police officers lose their jobs and

firefighters lose their jobs, seeing ambulance crews unable to cope with

I think she as Home Secretary needs to

think about what she did when she was Home Secretary.

Let's be very clear, there is an election on,

everybody has a choice and a lot of people

are very angry and a lot of

people would have wanted her to resign were she still the Home

The choice is going to be made on Thursday by the people of

But Theresa May, in Edinburgh with the Scottish Conservative

leader Ruth Davidson, defended her record,

We have been protecting counterterrorism police, we've

provided funding for an uplift in armed policing.

We have, from 2015, been protecting police budgets, like

The Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn's front bench, said police

We said, no, we're going to protect those budgets.

But it's also about the powers that you give to the police.

And I have been responsible through a number of pieces of

legislation that I have introduced, to give extra powers to the police

Jeremy Corbyn has boasted that he is opposed every piece

of anti-terror legislation since he came into Parliament.

But it wasn't just Labour Mrs May had to fend off.

The Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, took time off preparing

breakfast in a cafe, to take aim at the PM,

This is a point that we look at how we keep our country and our people

safe and as things stand we have a Prime Minister who told off the

police for saying that they were crying wolf, and that was at the

time when she was responsible for making cuts in our police numbers,

in every part of our country, and today she stands and says enough is

enough. Well, enough was enough the first time this happened. This is

the moment we stand behind our police and security services, the

one thing we know will make us safer is investing in our police.

And Scotland's First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has weighed in,

I think Theresa May has to outline what she thinks it means. Nobody can

escape the fact that Theresa May has been Home Secretary for the past

number of years before she was Prime Minister. She presided over

significant cuts in policing in England, and there is lots of

concern about that. Security is one of the most important priorities for

any government. Scotland are not immune from these threats. We have

invested to maintain police numbers and we have seen in recent times and

increase in the numbers of trained armed police officers we have got.

While the Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, says the issue of police numbers,

I think she has got it wrong over the police cuts and also she has got

it wrong over border guard cuts and cuts to the prison Service. I'm not

sure these comments have much legitimacy coming from somebody like

Jeremy Corbyn, somebody who has called Hamas and Hezbollah his

friends, to attack Theresa May on the issue of terrorism is a weak

point for Jeremy Corbyn. Katie and Owen are with us. It has

been a fascinating debate today on this whole security issue after the

terrible events of the weekend because we have two leaders who have

taken two different aspects of the debate, policing numbers, and the

powers of the police. Both leaders are running away from their past and

their comments and their policies in relation to those two issues. I

don't think the Conservatives ever imagined they would be on the

defence over security when the campaign started. By focusing on

police numbers and police cuts Labour have put Theresa May on the

back foot today and she is really having to explain why she made those

decisions and what the link might be between police numbers and the

recent attacks we have had. The powers of the police and comments

Jeremy Corbyn has made in the past,... What do you mean by those

comments? Comments saying his proud of the fact he has voted down

anti-terror legislation. Theresa May voted against the anti-terror

legislation as well. What people can conclude is that Theresa May has

shown throughout this campaign she is a threat to national security and

the two reasons for that either she has been Home Secretary for six of

the last seven years in this country and in that period 20,000 police

officers have lost their jobs. There has been a net reduction in overall

of police numbers. She accused the police in 2015, not that long ago,

of crying wolf and of scaremongering because of what they said would be

the impact of those police cuts. That is one aspect which she has to

be held to account for. The other is her alliance, she has tried to be

ever closer to a Saudi dictatorship which is at the epicentre of

which is a threat to national which is a threat to national

security and the security of every single person watching this

programme. I asked about Jeremy Corbyn.

Can I be honest here, we have the entire British press at the moment

ranged against the opposition leader. I am trying to redress the

balance. Interns are Jeremy Corbyn, his record is twofold. One is

opposing the cuts to the police numbers, which the Home Secretary

and Prime Minister Theresa May is directly responsible for. She is

responsible for reducing police numbers, Jeremy Corbyn opposed those

cuts. The second point on the Saudi dictatorship which chops the heads

off people for being gay, which chops the heads of people for being

dissidents and treats women in the most abominable way possible and is

exporting an ideology. In this country as well as other countries,

which is a threat to national security. Owen! I want to hear

Katie. Thank you very much. Say something. On police numbers there

are two things, there is a question of do we have enough police on the

streets of the UK? And the question is would more police have stopped

the recent terror attacks? If you look at the one on Saturday it was

within eight minutes the armed police were there since the first

call. I don't know if more police would have me back quicker. But the

bottom line for voters is that police numbers fell after 2010. So

that is a difficult conundrum, isn't it? Definitely but I think what the

Conservatives need to do and what they should be doing is talk about

whether that is an issue in itself and also does that issue relate to

these terror attacks? We had Lord Ki Lyle who has been very involved in

terror legislation today who said it is a separate conversation than

looking at whether it could have stopped the terror attacks. We had

the army on our streets and the reason we have the army on our

streets is because the police didn't have the resources to police the

streets of this country in the aftermath of that horrendous bombing

in Manchester. The truth is the police are asking, and have asked

over and over again for more resources. The Metropolitan Police

Commissioner Cressida Dick has to be careful about not intervening in a

general election, went on radio this morning said they need more

resources. Resources have been slashed and cut by Theresa May, Home

Secretary and Prime Minister of this country, and it's not just police we

are talking about, we are talking about armed police. Armed police

have been reduced by about 1000 in the last few years. This morning a

government minister went through a series of excruciating interviews

because she refused to accept, or even answer the fact, that the last

few years those armed police numbers have been slashed. The reality is as

I have said people have to ask themselves a question. If the Prime

Minister has systematically slashed police numbers and armed police

numbers, and is kowtowing to a Saudi dictatorship which is exporting

country and other countries, is she country and other countries, is she

a threat herself to national security? The reason I ask is

because today Steve Hilton, the former head of strategy for David

Cameron, a conservative adviser, Cameron, a conservative adviser,

demanded her resignation because of that. He is not a lefty. Steve

Hilton is not... It's not that dramatic, is made a habit of going

for his former colleagues, we saw him turn on David Cameron in the

campaign. OK, we will rejoin you in a couple of minutes but first.

One of the Conservatives' key election targets is in the Midlands.

20 years ago Gisela Stuart won the Birmingham Edgbaston

constituency for Labour, ending a century of Tory success.

But now the prominent Leave campaigner is standing down,

and the Conservatives are confident they can win it back,

with a candidate who's the great-great granddaughter of one

Kathryn Stanczyszyn, assesses her chances.

When Edgbaston turned red in 1997 it hailed a new dawn for a new Labour.

Gisela Stuart has held the seat for 20 years in the last two elections

bucking the national trend but as she steps down, can Labour hang onto

it? Due to her campaigning you have the hospital, investment in new

Street station in the way it was. No matter what that's a Labour MP with

Labour values, independent thinking for this constituency and that is

what is required for this constituency, somebody independent,

that's what they will get with me. Edgbaston was home to one of

Birmingham's famous sons, a businessman and politician, and now

his great, great granddaughter is determined to be one too. The polls

have been buried in terms of what they think the chances are. The

response I'm getting on the doorstep is positive, I'm meeting Labour

voters who cannot stomach the idea of Jeremy Corbyn being Prime

Minister of this country and they say they are prepared to switch.

Edgbaston is the kind of seat people pay close attention to, particularly

this time around when a popular MP is retiring. So what would it take

for the Conservatives to turn this seat blue? In 2015 Gisela Stuart got

18,500 votes compared to the Conservatives' 15,500, she doubled

her majority but it still narrowed, just under 3000 in it. Edgbaston's

four wards are diverse, Harborne and Edgbaston are fairly affluent, by

the Green and Quinton less so, big employers include the hospital and

university. Ukip are not standing but where the 10% of the vote goes

will be crucial. History is likely to repeat itself, though, in the

proud tradition of Edgbaston returning a woman, dating back to

Edith Pitt and Gill might. It will be a defining victory, but for who?

Kathryn Stanczyszyn, Midlands Today, Edgbaston.

There are three other candidates standing in Birmingham Edgbaston,

Tonight sees the last of the BBC's special Question Time programmes

Tim Farron and Nicola Sturgen are in the hot seat,

before a studio audience in Edinburgh.

scheduled for yesterday, but was postponed after

It has been a busy day for the parties and are Scotland's editor

has been giving is a rundown ahead of tonight's event. It has been a

busy couple of days of campaigning and two or three days until the

election. Theresa May on about trust again, who do you trust to get the

best deal on Brexit? Herself or Jeremy Corbyn. Conservative asked of

-- activists gave a round of applause to her. She characterised

herself as a passionate unionist, again making a point between Brexit

and the union. Nicola Sturgeon saying the own way to stop the

Tories who have had a damaging impact on this economy in Scotland,

the way to bring them in was to stop the SNP. Kezia Dugdale said only

Labour, only Jeremy Corbyn can oust Theresa May from Downing Street, in

the same sort of thing about the strategy and tactical point. Tim

Farron, Liberal Democrat leader, also in Scotland, saying the only

plausible alternative to the SNP in Scotland is the Liberal Democrats

and said that was true across many constituencies in the UK. Scotland

political editor Brian Taylor. The debate is live on BBC One tonight at

9pm and later on the news channel at midnight.

Well one key reasons the Conservatives' gained

an unlikely majority in the 2015 election, wasbecause of the stunning

The Tories took 27 seats from Nick Clegg's party.

Holding them this time round, could be key to staying in government.

One of those seats is Cheltenham in Gloucestershire,

where the Lib Dems will have to overturn a six and a half

Ben Godfrey has been to the spa town, to check out the mood.

At oak-wood children's Centre in Cheltenham they are bringing

families together and the candidates to become the town's next MP need

not look any further for a sense of unease about cuts to health and

social care. When I first had him I started here and there was a group

called best start and it has been stopped because there was a 52%

budget cut. It's very much the NHS, we have great facilities here and it

is making sure they continue, that is a big concern for me. The Lib

Dems held Cheltenham between 1992 and 2015, it was a safe seat until

the Conservatives took it with a 12% majority. And in case you are

wondering, 56% voted to remain in the EU. But voters have been more

engaged in issues around fair funding for schools and services at

Cheltenham General Hospital. In 2013 under the conservative Liberal

Democrat coalition government the A unit there was closed overnight

and at weekends with serious cases being taken to Gloucester. 4-for

potential Cheltenham MPs want a rethink and have different ideas

about finding the money. Labour will put a massive increase in funding

into the NHS, 37 billion over five years. We need to remove

privatisation from the NHS because that's taking money out of the NHS

through profit. We need to train doctors and nurses and pay them

appropriately for what they do. We'd like to put a penny on income tax

and get the cash into the NHS straightaway and enable local trusts

like ours to make improvements like faster and better mental health

services, and as a top priority to restore the Aimi. These ideas are

pipe dreams unless there is a strong economy generating the tax revenues

and that is why it is so vital to secure it under Theresa May. For the

Liberal Democrats this seat is a must win to revive their political

fortunes. Ben Godfrey, BBC Midlands today, Cheltenham.

You may have been somewhat bemused by the opinion polls this weekend.

A whole flurry came out - Opinium, ICM, YouGuv, you name it -

predicting various leads for the Conservatives of anywhere

Adam Fleming took his box of balls to London's South

Meet the mighty mood box, used on our sister programme

Daily Politics to find out what people really think.

I'm taking it to London's Southbank Centre to ask people's

And here's the question we're asking the great British public today.

Opinion polls: are they science or fiction?

On the day they never seem to come out as planned previously,

so I think it's an element of fiction to it.

OK, throw it back in then, very honest,

Because what people say about what they are going to do

isn't necessarily what they're going to do.

Here's someone who juggles data for a living.

What do you think about this as an opinion-gathering method?

Well, as my idol Peter Snow would say it's just a bit of fun.

When you're looking to do an accurate

scientific poll you hope to

accurately represent the population you're trying

to survey in the sample that takes part in that survey.

And so for instance you need the right

number of old people, the right number of young people

After the last election the professionals realised they

didn't have the right number of Tory supporters and had spoken to too

I think some people don't always say what they think.

People lie. People lie?

And why are different polling companies

coming up with such different results?

Usually you could come up with four or five

reasons why pollsters are coming up with different numbers but on this

occasion there is something quite straightforward going on, and it's

whether or not you believe that young people and people who didn't

turn out in the last general election in 2015, who now say that

they're going to, whether they actually do.

If you believe them then it's a closer race.

Those pollsters who are saying it's a

three or four point lead are more likely to be right.

If, like me, and at ICM, you tend to be suspicious of

people saying that they're going to change behaviours which are fairly

embedded in historical precedent, then you should believe the likes of

me and I'm saying currently it's a 12 point or so

Guys, I'm doing a survey about opinion polls.

In other words, are we all asking too many youngsters

Do you pick up the newspaper every day going, I wonder

No, I'm pretty sure what the polls are

Theresa May still ahead but Labour squeezing in there.

YouGov has suggested that would result in a hung parliament

Based on the current polling we produced a broad

At the time that was anything from 274 to

345 seats the Conservatives might get.

You need 326 for a majority, so at that time it was possible that

The headline was YouGov predicts hung

parliament, that was just one potential outcome.

What you often see during election campaigns is

that the interpretation of the polls, whether it's

by broadcasters or the media, or social media, is

somewhat different from the interpretation

After three sweltering hours of doing this.

Who's got some opinions they'd like to share with me?

The polls are fascinating snapshots but it's the one on June 8th

Well, there we go, a big majority of people here on the Southbank

think the opinion polls are more fiction

And here ends probably the dodgiest opinion poll in British

I am with Adam on that one. That was very dodgy indeed. Katie, most

people think it is fiction rather than signs, the fact of the matter

is we all follow them. We promise every year, every election, every

referendum, never to listen to the polls because we follow them and

they turn out to be wrong but an exciting poll comes in and we spend

a day talking about it and writing about it. If you look at the polls

so far you can see that although they all have different figures they

all seem to agree on the fact that the Tories started off with a very

big lead and Labour have been making up ground. Yes, that is

incontrovertible, Owen, isn't it? That has given succour to the Labour

campaign and given them a certain amount of liftoff. How much do you

believe in these polls because they are all over the place? I am a bit

of a poll sceptic. On Brexit they were not that Ofcom I thought we

would leave because of the polling. On Trump, Hillary Clinton won a bit

majority of the popular vote. The problem with Theresa May is lots of

people have basically found her the less people like her. The reason for

that is she has a record of being inconsistent and dishonest. She said

there would be no early election over and over again. We are talking

about the polls! The polls man! We're talking about why the poll has

narrowed. What is the point in having a chin stroking chat about

them? I'm going to stroke my chin now. I will keep going, the reason

the polls have narrowed is because she has a record of saying things

she goes back on, early election, not increasing National Insurance,

she then tried to go back on what she went back on in the first place.

Integration targets, she said it would be reduced to the tens of

thousand and it hasn't got close. She was a Remainer who reinvented

herself as a hard-core Brexiteer command the dementia tax when she

tried to impose a 100% inheritance tax, so the reasons why the polling

has narrowed, and it's not clear from the polls about how much it has

narrowed, I would still think the odds are stacked against Labour. The

reason they have narrowed is a lot of people look at Theresa May based

on what she has said and done trust it. Katie, Owen really wants to talk

about the Conservatives, so you cancelled about Labour. So, tell me

why you think Labour have done so well to narrow those polls? What is

it they have done? I think it is two things. They started off from such a

low bar, Jeremy Corbyn did, lots of people were surprised when he seemed

likeable in lots of his media appearances. Secondly, the

manifestos are often said not to matter but the Labour manifesto has

lots of popular policies where is the Conservative manifesto seemed to

be built on the assumption they didn't really need to bother because

Jeremy Corbyn, we don't need to woo voters and we don't need to give

them a reason to vote for us. For lots of people if you ask them why

they vote conservative it would be a negative reason, because you don't

like Jeremy Corbyn and that's not a successful campaign message. That's

an interesting point because lots of the time the source of policies

Labour have put forward have been vilified by much of the press and

many politicians. But the reality is the polling bears it out and most

people think the more well off should pay more tax and we should

use that to invest in public services. Most people do believe

that certain utilities like rail, water and energy should be not run

by foreign governments and private companies but by the government that

they vote in. And that most people, millions of people, think should we

saddle young people with debt for going to university? The reason I

say that is we don't know how the election will pan out, the odds are

still against Labour. But I would say to people without getting a tiny

little violin out, I feel like a lonely voice in the media on those

policies, millions of people support those policies and they have got

traction because of the fact people do like them but they haven't got

the airing until now. They certainly got an airing, they suddenly got box

office reception, and all of a sudden people went I quite like

these ideas. I understand why in a poll people would say they like what

Labour are offering but people often say in polls the Labour vote is

overestimated. Which is true. That is partly the credibility issue. You

might like them but it's ultimately whether voters when they get to the

ballot box really believe they can vote for them and they can handle

these things. Its turnout force of the problem Labour have which they

must focus on is getting people who say they will vote Labour to get out

and vote. I will end it now, Owen and Katie, it has been good having

you, despite my protestations! Many thanks for that and to you for

watching. Now it's time for the weather but thank you for watching

The Election Wrap. Bye bye.