16/05/2017 The Election Wrap


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16/05/2017

The essential guide to the day's election campaigning, with the latest from the BBC's teams around the UK.


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Hello and welcome to The Election Wrap, your essential

:00:17.:00:18.

guide to the day's campaigning, right across the UK.

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Labour and Plaid Cymru, the floor is yours.

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Jeremy Corbyn has launched Labour's manifesto in Bradford pledging

:00:26.:00:31.

billions for the NHS, education and childcare.

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The price tag, an eye watering ?48.6 billion.

:00:42.:00:43.

Labour says it can find the money, but we'll

:00:44.:00:45.

And in the Rhondda Valley the Welsh nationalists,

:00:46.:00:52.

Plaid Cymru, say they'll stick up for agriculture

:00:53.:00:54.

and industry in Brexit talks, at the launch of their manifesto.

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They'll make promises they don't keep eventually.

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We've taken our hallowed box of balls to Edinburgh,

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to see what the good folk there think about politicians

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So lots to talk about with our panel.

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The journalist and author Rachel Shabi, and Sam Coates of The Times.

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Let's catch up on the latest developments from the campaign

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Jeremy Corbyn has launched Labour's manifesto in Bradford,

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saying it'll appeal to voters right across the country.

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Our proposal is a government for the many not the few.

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Our proposals are of hope for the many all over this

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country and I'm very proud to present our manifesto

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It was also the turn of Plaid Cymru and party leader,

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Leanne Wood, to push out their manifesto,

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voice" to get the best possible Brexit deal for the country.

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We're pledging to put Wales at the heart of the negotiations to leave

:02:07.:02:13.

the European Union so that the final deal reflects the needs of the Welsh

:02:14.:02:14.

economy. From tool boxes to Harry Potter

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books, Theresa May sheds light on her policies,

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and personal achievements - And Scotland's First Minister

:02:21.:02:22.

and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, told voters to stand up

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for Scotland, against what she called, Tory cuts

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and the possibility of an extreme We know the biggest risk to Scotland

:02:42.:02:49.

in the years ahead is an increasingly hardline Tory

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government intent on more austerity, more cuts and intent not just on

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Brexit but the most extreme form of Brexit possible so we need to make

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sure that after this election Scotland's voice is heard loudly and

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clearly. It is more important than it has ever been before for

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Scotland's voice to be heard, for MPs from Scotland to stand up for

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Scotland and protect our interests. With me are, Rachel

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Shabi, and Sam Coates. It is good to see you both. It is a

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big day, Labour launched its manifesto and the Welsh

:03:30.:03:32.

nationalists, Plaid Cymru. Manifestos seemed to have everything

:03:33.:03:35.

the rank and file in the company would love. Does it have wider

:03:36.:03:40.

appeal, do you think? It seems the policies are popular and what is

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interesting about this manifesto now that it has finally come out as the

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real thing, it is not just a matter of the individual policies, it is a

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vision, it's a recalibration of Britain, different way of looking at

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the economy after years of stagnating wages and flat-lining

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productivity and spiralling costs. It's trying to address inequalities

:04:03.:04:07.

and boost the economy in a genuinely different way. I think it is true to

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say that there is now a big distinction between the two main

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parties. A big distinction but no mention of Brexit, Sam. There was a

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little bit of Brexit in the manifesto. Labour struggles with

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Brexit as an issue to define itself differently from the Conservatives

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on this issue, given that as it were they are going along with it and

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promising many of the same things just in slightly different language

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to Theresa May. I think Rachel is absolutely right, a big choice,

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probably the biggest choice since 1983 when Margaret Thatcher thought

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Michael Foot. You have a very big Dur distinctive policies, lots of

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money for public services, they pledged to overhaul the labour

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market, a large amount of borrowing to fund infrastructure projects and

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a lot of national control back from everything from water to energy and

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key utilities. Popular some of these things may be, the question will

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come down to one of trust. The most significant moments today was that

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Len McCluskey, the head of Unite, union, the individual who has backed

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Jeremy Corbyn all the way one gave an interview this evening to

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Politico in which he said I'm not sure Jeremy Corbyn is going to win,

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I think 200 seats would be a good result for the Labour Party, Labour

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somewhere closer to 230, 240 at the moment. You have this feeling

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amongst the left that even with a manifesto that has been shorn of all

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the compromises they've had to make in the past, even when there is

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everything they might want to see it might not quite do it. Labour as you

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say, mentioned Brexit briefly in their manifesto launch today. The

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Welsh nationalists, pride Comrie, Brexit was a big part of their

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manifesto launch, here is Leanne Wood, their leader -- Plaid Cymru.

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Let's take that message today that Plaid Cymru is ready to defend

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Wales, to defend our nation, to defend our economy, to defend our

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people and to develop. The Welsh nationalists clearly

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believe they can make gains in Wales, Rachel, in a way that,

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because Labour has let them down essentially. Yes, Labour has been

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struggling in Wales with Corbyn and before Corbyn. It's been a very slow

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and steady decline. Plaid as you say have focused on Brexit very strongly

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today because of the risks to Wales in terms of having tariff free

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access to Europe, the EU, would make a big difference for somewhere like

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Wales that is reliant on the kind of access. I can see why she has

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stressed that access for her party. Very briefly, Sam. By Afful part is

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fishing in the pool for former remain voters and only Conservatives

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and Ukip looking to capitalise on the 52% who voted for Brexit in

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Wales. Labour had the abacus out, punched

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in the figures and their spending It has finally been published

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officially and we have been crunching the numbers.

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But where does Labour say the money is coming from?

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Well, it estimates an extra tax take of ?48.6 billion.

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Let's break that down a little, income tax first.

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Higher earners will pay more, and we're talking about roughly

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the top 5% of earners - we reckon that's about

:07:26.:07:27.

Earnings above ?80,000 will be taxed at 45%.

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With a new 50% rate on earnings above ?123,000.

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Labour says this will raise ?6.4 billion per year.

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But the biggest increase in tax take, according to Labour's plans,

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will come from an increase in corporation tax.

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It's currently 19% and Labour plans to increase that

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Once that's done, Labour says its corporation tax plans

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One really important thing, though, that Labour itself acknowledges is

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that companies and individuals change their behaviour when tax

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rates change and you also have to take into account the health of the

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overall economy. Raising tax rates doesn't always

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increase the overall tax take There are other measures

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to raise revenue. For example, a levy on what Labour

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cause excessive pay starting with a 2.5% levy paid by employers on pay

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packages over ?330,000. There is also VAT on private school fees.

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The manifesto also says ?6.5 billion will be raised from an aggressive

:08:42.:08:44.

programme to crack down on tax avoidance.

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Political parties always say they'll do that, and it can be done,

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Overall, though, Labour says it can finance all its current spending

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plans through changes in the tax system.

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Does that add up? They are suggesting a ?50 billion increase in

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tax, which if it were to be commended by the way it would take

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the tax burden in this country to the highest level it has been in

:09:15.:09:18.

about 70 years. But I think there is an awful lot of uncertainty about

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whether you could actually raise that amount of tax. They are talking

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about very large increases in taxes on companies which would likely

:09:27.:09:31.

reduce the amount of investment they do. I think the actual amount you

:09:32.:09:34.

could get from these policies certainly runs into the tens of

:09:35.:09:39.

billions but doesn't reach the 50 billion that Labour are claiming. So

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that is tax but there are also big plans for investment spending, all

:09:44.:09:46.

those nationalisation plans you've heard about. Water companies, the

:09:47.:09:50.

Royal Mail, and so on. Labour says it will borrow money to pay for

:09:51.:09:54.

future investment, it's talking about a national transformation fund

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of ?250 billion but there is no detailed costing of those

:10:02.:10:03.

nationalisation plans in the manifesto. That will be the source

:10:04.:10:06.

of controversy and political debate. But Labour does make one bold

:10:07.:10:11.

promise. It says it is committed to ensuring that the national debt is

:10:12.:10:14.

Lola at the end of the next parliament than it is today. Sam and

:10:15.:10:23.

Rachel, I will start with you Sam, on this. Confusion about whether or

:10:24.:10:27.

not borrowing to buy back and re-nationalised utilities for

:10:28.:10:30.

instance, or British rail, the National Grid, Royal Mail, or

:10:31.:10:35.

whatever, whether that actually comes under capital expenditure. The

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suggestion is that it doesn't, Labour say it does. What was quite

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clear from John McDonnell this morning on the radio is that they

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have not decided how many of these renationalisation is will take part.

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The one involving rail will happen differently to the one involving the

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water utilities. They just don't have a plan. It is hard to fully

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cost them. It's worth looking at the market capitalisation of some water

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companies, 40 billion in some cases. This is a lot of money will stop it

:11:05.:11:09.

probably will have to be funded by borrowing in some cases. So, yes, be

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it capital spending or otherwise the money still has to be found from

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somebody and that is probably by increasing the debt. I will bring

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you in in a second, Rachel, we can hear from Sarah Champion, who

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confirmed the details are not detailed in the Labour manifesto and

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the proposal is an intent and they need to look at the proposal. This

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is the reality of being in a position. As a Shadow Secretary of

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State which is a great honour and I have had one additional staff.

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Doesn't look like you're prepared for government. You say you have

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only had three weeks and you're proposing spending billions. I can

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answer the question. Mike Catt about who I have sat out in the Tory

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government has a couple of thousand people to help develop their ideas.

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-- my counterpart. It is tough being in a position because you do not

:12:01.:12:04.

have an army of civil servants to go through the figures and crunched the

:12:05.:12:08.

numbers and that kind of stuff. But that clip there does for some

:12:09.:12:12.

perhaps feed into this idea that Labour are not quite ready. I think

:12:13.:12:18.

the Conservatives have been very successful perpetuating this myth

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that the Labour Party has mismanaged the economy and that lingers. It's

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interesting when you look at the way Britain has a problem with

:12:25.:12:30.

productivity. It is flat-lining. It has a problem with wealth

:12:31.:12:32.

inequalities which are wider than any other country in Europe. The

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rest of Europe looks at us and says why aren't you raising tax? Why

:12:37.:12:41.

aren't you raising tax on corporations? Organisations as

:12:42.:12:44.

radical as the IMF are suggesting that we invest in our economy, that

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we invest in infrastructure because that is how used in the late growth.

:12:48.:12:54.

I think these things are quite different. It's a quite different

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vision Labour is presenting but it is something that economists have

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been advocating for quite some time. But it is precisely because it is

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such a radical vision, because so much money is being put out there in

:13:07.:13:10.

pledges and so on that people are pouring over the figures very, very

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carefully. In the end it comes down to trust. I think there is no doubt

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that the level of omission, if we can call it that, of this manifesto

:13:19.:13:23.

is incredibly high so you have to put your faith in Jeremy Corbyn and

:13:24.:13:26.

John McDonnell to be able to turn around the ship of state and change

:13:27.:13:31.

the direction and to ensure that the changes that the implement help

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contribute to a more successful the economic economy. You have to put a

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lot more trust in politicians promising to do that than

:13:44.:13:47.

politicians promising to do slightly more incremental visions that

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doesn't involve borrowing on this scale and spending on this scale and

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renationalisation of this scale. Talking about promises this is a big

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week for the main parties with a positive plethora of manifesto is

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being launched. But do voters the politicians will

:13:59.:14:08.

stick to their promises, if elected? Ellie Price has been

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in Edinburgh South, a constituency that'll see a right old ding dong,

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come election day. # I need a little time

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to think it over... They all make promises

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they don't keep eventually. Do you trust the political parties

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to stick to their manifestos? Well, if it's a straight yes

:14:27.:14:30.

or no, I think the answer It's partly an individual loss

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of integrity for people and partly the whole system is set up that

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people have to compromise and lie in order to get votes

:14:42.:14:44.

and they don't carry it through. I think I would only

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trust the SNP, honestly. I think Sturgeon comes

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through as truthful. Manifestos, they don't ever really

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seem to come to fruition in the way I feel a bit strange

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answering this question! They have proven they don't

:15:03.:15:05.

stick to the manifesto. Lib Dems I think would

:15:06.:15:13.

but they are not going to get in. Do you think you can trust

:15:14.:15:18.

the political parties to keep Looks like a trolley

:15:19.:15:36.

load of empty promises. Well, yes, I suppose

:15:37.:15:43.

it would be, really. No, I think even the sincerest

:15:44.:15:48.

parties that might actually want to stick to the policies find

:15:49.:15:51.

that once they get I think if people can actually stick

:15:52.:15:53.

with the idea of the promises and maybe some of the detail might

:15:54.:16:01.

have to change, that is fair enough. That is being practical about things

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because things change. Usually, when they say things like,

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I am going to fix the problems in the health service or money

:16:07.:16:11.

or something like this, usually, well, it doesn't always get worse,

:16:12.:16:14.

but it doesn't usually get better. Any lasting relationship needs trust

:16:15.:16:20.

and when the political parties come wooing voters in this marginal seat,

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they will have their work cut out because no, the majority don't think

:16:26.:16:28.

that the parties stick They do get a bad rap, don't they?

:16:29.:16:46.

Deserved when it comes to fulfilling promises?

:16:47.:16:48.

I think there are some high profile examples of broken promises,

:16:49.:16:56.

probably looking at you Nick Clegg! I think it is a good conversation to

:16:57.:17:01.

have as the Labour manifesto is launched because one of the think

:17:02.:17:06.

about it is there are dozens and dozens of proposals. They are

:17:07.:17:10.

proposing to introduce something called sectoral bargaining. At the

:17:11.:17:12.

moment companies negotiate with unions and unions negotiate with

:17:13.:17:21.

companies. TV presenters across Britain would get the same levels of

:17:22.:17:24.

pay after negotiation with the unions and somebody else on the

:17:25.:17:27.

other side of the table. These are the sorts of things we have to

:17:28.:17:31.

believe can work if we are to believe in the Labour manifesto. How

:17:32.:17:34.

that will work in practice I don't know so trust is very important,

:17:35.:17:37.

that is what voters have to decide, whether they do when it comes to Jim

:17:38.:17:41.

the eighth, and Labour. Speaking to that I think people don't really

:17:42.:17:46.

pour over point by point the manifesto. It's more about their

:17:47.:17:49.

vision and a story and imagining what kind of country it could be if

:17:50.:17:54.

these things came about and that is where Labour stands to gain because

:17:55.:18:00.

it has that vision. In terms of vision, if that kid is already

:18:01.:18:04.

cynical and disillusioned with politics they have their work cut

:18:05.:18:08.

out for them in terms of restoring trust. Talking about children,

:18:09.:18:11.

Theresa May has been talking to quite a few of them today. She was

:18:12.:18:15.

in Birmingham in the West Midlands and showing again her human side, it

:18:16.:18:22.

would seem. I like Harry Potter. I know you like reading those books.

:18:23.:18:32.

Have you read all of them? No. I'm still on the fourth book. I've read

:18:33.:18:35.

all of them. They are very good, aren't they?

:18:36.:18:38.

She is hoping her election manifesto is going to go down well as well as

:18:39.:18:46.

her words there in that school. The Liberal Democrats are launching

:18:47.:18:48.

their manifesto on Wednesday, Rachel. The pro-Europe party, is

:18:49.:18:54.

that going to get them anywhere, do you think? I think people have been

:18:55.:19:00.

quite surprised at how quickly their polling has eroded in the last few

:19:01.:19:06.

weeks. I think there was this idea that when the snap election was

:19:07.:19:09.

called there was an idea they would hoover up the remaining votes, or

:19:10.:19:14.

the remaining proportion of the public but it seems that isn't

:19:15.:19:16.

really the case, that that isn't really happening. I can't really see

:19:17.:19:21.

how they are going to turn that one around. The people that one might

:19:22.:19:27.

have expected to go to the Liberal Democrats because they were

:19:28.:19:30.

Remainers and so on and so forth seem to be leaning towards the

:19:31.:19:34.

Conservatives. I think they made a calculation which is that just under

:19:35.:19:39.

half of the population voted against Brexit and they thought they could

:19:40.:19:44.

fish in that pool. Of that 48%, probably about half of those people

:19:45.:19:49.

think that Brexit should, nevertheless, go ahead even though

:19:50.:19:52.

they didn't vote for it at the time meaning the maximum size of the Lib

:19:53.:19:58.

Dem Paul is about 24, 20 5%. They're getting about one in two with the

:19:59.:20:01.

possible voters they could go for. That's not bad but they have set

:20:02.:20:06.

themselves quite a low ceiling and breaking out of that isn't easy.

:20:07.:20:10.

-- 25%. We will hear what they have to say on Wednesday.

:20:11.:20:12.

Now, while opinions on politics may differ, there's one thing a lot

:20:13.:20:18.

of us have in common - and that's a good brew.

:20:19.:20:21.

Our correspondent Amy Harris has taken a tour around some

:20:22.:20:23.

of our vast and varied outlets in the East Midlands to see

:20:24.:20:26.

what issues are raising temperature levels ahead

:20:27.:20:27.

Whether you're a coffee connoisseur or a tea lover.

:20:28.:20:34.

So what better place than our local cafes to find out

:20:35.:20:38.

which issues are bringing us to boiling point

:20:39.:20:40.

First stop, Saints of Mocha in Leicester.

:20:41.:20:53.

It specialises in colourful coffee and it's clear

:20:54.:20:55.

which party is flavour of the month here.

:20:56.:20:57.

Labour's more comprehensive in addressing the needs of young

:20:58.:21:01.

people, so, student welfare, how they can give them better grants,

:21:02.:21:04.

I think they're more for working class.

:21:05.:21:06.

I'd like to see Jeremy Corbyn in charge, he's a

:21:07.:21:09.

man of a lot of good morals and values.

:21:10.:21:13.

Out of the city at this truckstop close to the M1 and the

:21:14.:21:16.

There isn't, though, so much of an appetite for politics.

:21:17.:21:20.

I just don't believe in any of them, anything they all say, it just seems

:21:21.:21:36.

I've got no confidence in any of them, basically.

:21:37.:21:40.

You can vote for one or vote for another.

:21:41.:21:42.

My grandma always brought me up to be Labour but I

:21:43.:21:48.

don't think Jeremy Corbyn is the right man for the job.

:21:49.:21:50.

I don't think he's got what we need really.

:21:51.:21:52.

Head north to the historic market town of Ashbourne in

:21:53.:22:02.

Derbyshire and as you might expect rural issues are on the minds of

:22:03.:22:06.

voters in this Conservative stronghold.

:22:07.:22:08.

They're destroying the small villages and the entire way of

:22:09.:22:11.

Will voting Conservative provide that?

:22:12.:22:15.

We're hoping they will do something to help the older people

:22:16.:22:27.

that need some support at the moment.

:22:28.:22:29.

There are lots of things I do disagree with but overall I think

:22:30.:22:34.

With concerns as varied as this coffee

:22:35.:22:46.

selection the parties are trying hard to be all things to all people.

:22:47.:22:49.

But will cafe conversations translate into votes?

:22:50.:22:51.

You could say the Conservatives are the party of the fancy mucky Artell

:22:52.:23:03.

and Labour are the party of builders. Clearly Theresa May is

:23:04.:23:08.

drinking builders in this election, she has parked her tanks on the lawn

:23:09.:23:13.

which makes this interesting. That is one of the driving factors, using

:23:14.:23:18.

her own brand to reach out to former Labour voters, maybe people who

:23:19.:23:21.

voted for Brexit in the referendum and maybe people who switched to

:23:22.:23:28.

Ukip last time around. I think it is important to stress, here we are

:23:29.:23:31.

halfway through, a little over half way through and people touch less on

:23:32.:23:36.

probably the biggest thing of this election campaign, which is not the

:23:37.:23:39.

performance of Jeremy Corbyn, or how well Theresa May controls her

:23:40.:23:47.

appearances. The biggest thing will be that one party, Ukip, is

:23:48.:23:52.

gambling, its vote in the local elections and opinion polls has

:23:53.:23:55.

basically halved and that means that the centre, centre right of British

:23:56.:24:00.

politics has reunited behind the British Conservatives, reunited

:24:01.:24:03.

behind Theresa May, and it is that rather than the wake in which the

:24:04.:24:07.

Labour Party are doing on any day-to-day basis that will have the

:24:08.:24:10.

most dramatic impact on June the 8th. It looks as if Ukip isn't going

:24:11.:24:15.

to stand in 277 seats, that means lots of those votes will inevitably

:24:16.:24:20.

go to the Conservatives and the Ukip vote is peeling away because people

:24:21.:24:23.

are not sure what the mission of the parties and the leadership situation

:24:24.:24:28.

is altogether more confused. That is the thing driving the selection

:24:29.:24:32.

below the bonnet rather than for instance manifesto launches. Rachel,

:24:33.:24:37.

we did have a big manifesto launch today from Labour. How do they

:24:38.:24:42.

appeal to the machiato drinker earning ?80,000 and above? You are

:24:43.:24:47.

assuming that the mucky odour drinker, if indeed that is what

:24:48.:24:56.

people over 80,000 drink... I'm just checking that out there. We all

:24:57.:25:07.

drink Nescafe at BBC. I have tasted your coffee! How does he appeal to

:25:08.:25:11.

those earning more than the average salary? There is an assumption that

:25:12.:25:16.

Labour always had its work cut out and has become even more pronounced

:25:17.:25:20.

pose Brexit because it must appeal to these two constituencies,

:25:21.:25:22.

traditional working-class base and its middle-class base, people who

:25:23.:25:29.

voted to remain if we can use broad crude brushstrokes. Has always been

:25:30.:25:35.

balanced. It comes back to the sort of values it stands for and the kind

:25:36.:25:41.

of society you want to live in. It is quite likely that when answering

:25:42.:25:47.

that question the concerns of the over 80,000 and the concerns of the

:25:48.:25:53.

27,000 might actually collide. Indeed, all right, Rachel and Sam,

:25:54.:25:58.

it's good to see you both. Thank you for joining us on The Election Wrap

:25:59.:26:01.

for today and thank you to you for joining

:26:02.:26:02.