16/05/2017 The Election Wrap

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Hello and welcome to The Election Wrap, your essential


guide to the day's campaigning, right across the UK.


Labour and Plaid Cymru, the floor is yours.


Jeremy Corbyn has launched Labour's manifesto in Bradford pledging


billions for the NHS, education and childcare.


The price tag, an eye watering ?48.6 billion.


Labour says it can find the money, but we'll


And in the Rhondda Valley the Welsh nationalists,


Plaid Cymru, say they'll stick up for agriculture


and industry in Brexit talks, at the launch of their manifesto.


They'll make promises they don't keep eventually.


We've taken our hallowed box of balls to Edinburgh,


to see what the good folk there think about politicians


So lots to talk about with our panel.


The journalist and author Rachel Shabi, and Sam Coates of The Times.


Let's catch up on the latest developments from the campaign


Jeremy Corbyn has launched Labour's manifesto in Bradford,


saying it'll appeal to voters right across the country.


Our proposal is a government for the many not the few.


Our proposals are of hope for the many all over this


country and I'm very proud to present our manifesto


It was also the turn of Plaid Cymru and party leader,


Leanne Wood, to push out their manifesto,


voice" to get the best possible Brexit deal for the country.


We're pledging to put Wales at the heart of the negotiations to leave


the European Union so that the final deal reflects the needs of the Welsh


economy. From tool boxes to Harry Potter


books, Theresa May sheds light on her policies,


and personal achievements - And Scotland's First Minister


and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, told voters to stand up


for Scotland, against what she called, Tory cuts


and the possibility of an extreme We know the biggest risk to Scotland


in the years ahead is an increasingly hardline Tory


government intent on more austerity, more cuts and intent not just on


Brexit but the most extreme form of Brexit possible so we need to make


sure that after this election Scotland's voice is heard loudly and


clearly. It is more important than it has ever been before for


Scotland's voice to be heard, for MPs from Scotland to stand up for


Scotland and protect our interests. With me are, Rachel


Shabi, and Sam Coates. It is good to see you both. It is a


big day, Labour launched its manifesto and the Welsh


nationalists, Plaid Cymru. Manifestos seemed to have everything


the rank and file in the company would love. Does it have wider


appeal, do you think? It seems the policies are popular and what is


interesting about this manifesto now that it has finally come out as the


real thing, it is not just a matter of the individual policies, it is a


vision, it's a recalibration of Britain, different way of looking at


the economy after years of stagnating wages and flat-lining


productivity and spiralling costs. It's trying to address inequalities


and boost the economy in a genuinely different way. I think it is true to


say that there is now a big distinction between the two main


parties. A big distinction but no mention of Brexit, Sam. There was a


little bit of Brexit in the manifesto. Labour struggles with


Brexit as an issue to define itself differently from the Conservatives


on this issue, given that as it were they are going along with it and


promising many of the same things just in slightly different language


to Theresa May. I think Rachel is absolutely right, a big choice,


probably the biggest choice since 1983 when Margaret Thatcher thought


Michael Foot. You have a very big Dur distinctive policies, lots of


money for public services, they pledged to overhaul the labour


market, a large amount of borrowing to fund infrastructure projects and


a lot of national control back from everything from water to energy and


key utilities. Popular some of these things may be, the question will


come down to one of trust. The most significant moments today was that


Len McCluskey, the head of Unite, union, the individual who has backed


Jeremy Corbyn all the way one gave an interview this evening to


Politico in which he said I'm not sure Jeremy Corbyn is going to win,


I think 200 seats would be a good result for the Labour Party, Labour


somewhere closer to 230, 240 at the moment. You have this feeling


amongst the left that even with a manifesto that has been shorn of all


the compromises they've had to make in the past, even when there is


everything they might want to see it might not quite do it. Labour as you


say, mentioned Brexit briefly in their manifesto launch today. The


Welsh nationalists, pride Comrie, Brexit was a big part of their


manifesto launch, here is Leanne Wood, their leader -- Plaid Cymru.


Let's take that message today that Plaid Cymru is ready to defend


Wales, to defend our nation, to defend our economy, to defend our


people and to develop. The Welsh nationalists clearly


believe they can make gains in Wales, Rachel, in a way that,


because Labour has let them down essentially. Yes, Labour has been


struggling in Wales with Corbyn and before Corbyn. It's been a very slow


and steady decline. Plaid as you say have focused on Brexit very strongly


today because of the risks to Wales in terms of having tariff free


access to Europe, the EU, would make a big difference for somewhere like


Wales that is reliant on the kind of access. I can see why she has


stressed that access for her party. Very briefly, Sam. By Afful part is


fishing in the pool for former remain voters and only Conservatives


and Ukip looking to capitalise on the 52% who voted for Brexit in


Wales. Labour had the abacus out, punched


in the figures and their spending It has finally been published


officially and we have been crunching the numbers.


But where does Labour say the money is coming from?


Well, it estimates an extra tax take of ?48.6 billion.


Let's break that down a little, income tax first.


Higher earners will pay more, and we're talking about roughly


the top 5% of earners - we reckon that's about


Earnings above ?80,000 will be taxed at 45%.


With a new 50% rate on earnings above ?123,000.


Labour says this will raise ?6.4 billion per year.


But the biggest increase in tax take, according to Labour's plans,


will come from an increase in corporation tax.


It's currently 19% and Labour plans to increase that


Once that's done, Labour says its corporation tax plans


One really important thing, though, that Labour itself acknowledges is


that companies and individuals change their behaviour when tax


rates change and you also have to take into account the health of the


overall economy. Raising tax rates doesn't always


increase the overall tax take There are other measures


to raise revenue. For example, a levy on what Labour


cause excessive pay starting with a 2.5% levy paid by employers on pay


packages over ?330,000. There is also VAT on private school fees.


The manifesto also says ?6.5 billion will be raised from an aggressive


programme to crack down on tax avoidance.


Political parties always say they'll do that, and it can be done,


Overall, though, Labour says it can finance all its current spending


plans through changes in the tax system.


Does that add up? They are suggesting a ?50 billion increase in


tax, which if it were to be commended by the way it would take


the tax burden in this country to the highest level it has been in


about 70 years. But I think there is an awful lot of uncertainty about


whether you could actually raise that amount of tax. They are talking


about very large increases in taxes on companies which would likely


reduce the amount of investment they do. I think the actual amount you


could get from these policies certainly runs into the tens of


billions but doesn't reach the 50 billion that Labour are claiming. So


that is tax but there are also big plans for investment spending, all


those nationalisation plans you've heard about. Water companies, the


Royal Mail, and so on. Labour says it will borrow money to pay for


future investment, it's talking about a national transformation fund


of ?250 billion but there is no detailed costing of those


nationalisation plans in the manifesto. That will be the source


of controversy and political debate. But Labour does make one bold


promise. It says it is committed to ensuring that the national debt is


Lola at the end of the next parliament than it is today. Sam and


Rachel, I will start with you Sam, on this. Confusion about whether or


not borrowing to buy back and re-nationalised utilities for


instance, or British rail, the National Grid, Royal Mail, or


whatever, whether that actually comes under capital expenditure. The


suggestion is that it doesn't, Labour say it does. What was quite


clear from John McDonnell this morning on the radio is that they


have not decided how many of these renationalisation is will take part.


The one involving rail will happen differently to the one involving the


water utilities. They just don't have a plan. It is hard to fully


cost them. It's worth looking at the market capitalisation of some water


companies, 40 billion in some cases. This is a lot of money will stop it


probably will have to be funded by borrowing in some cases. So, yes, be


it capital spending or otherwise the money still has to be found from


somebody and that is probably by increasing the debt. I will bring


you in in a second, Rachel, we can hear from Sarah Champion, who


confirmed the details are not detailed in the Labour manifesto and


the proposal is an intent and they need to look at the proposal. This


is the reality of being in a position. As a Shadow Secretary of


State which is a great honour and I have had one additional staff.


Doesn't look like you're prepared for government. You say you have


only had three weeks and you're proposing spending billions. I can


answer the question. Mike Catt about who I have sat out in the Tory


government has a couple of thousand people to help develop their ideas.


-- my counterpart. It is tough being in a position because you do not


have an army of civil servants to go through the figures and crunched the


numbers and that kind of stuff. But that clip there does for some


perhaps feed into this idea that Labour are not quite ready. I think


the Conservatives have been very successful perpetuating this myth


that the Labour Party has mismanaged the economy and that lingers. It's


interesting when you look at the way Britain has a problem with


productivity. It is flat-lining. It has a problem with wealth


inequalities which are wider than any other country in Europe. The


rest of Europe looks at us and says why aren't you raising tax? Why


aren't you raising tax on corporations? Organisations as


radical as the IMF are suggesting that we invest in our economy, that


we invest in infrastructure because that is how used in the late growth.


I think these things are quite different. It's a quite different


vision Labour is presenting but it is something that economists have


been advocating for quite some time. But it is precisely because it is


such a radical vision, because so much money is being put out there in


pledges and so on that people are pouring over the figures very, very


carefully. In the end it comes down to trust. I think there is no doubt


that the level of omission, if we can call it that, of this manifesto


is incredibly high so you have to put your faith in Jeremy Corbyn and


John McDonnell to be able to turn around the ship of state and change


the direction and to ensure that the changes that the implement help


contribute to a more successful the economic economy. You have to put a


lot more trust in politicians promising to do that than


politicians promising to do slightly more incremental visions that


doesn't involve borrowing on this scale and spending on this scale and


renationalisation of this scale. Talking about promises this is a big


week for the main parties with a positive plethora of manifesto is


being launched. But do voters the politicians will


stick to their promises, if elected? Ellie Price has been


in Edinburgh South, a constituency that'll see a right old ding dong,


come election day. # I need a little time


to think it over... They all make promises


they don't keep eventually. Do you trust the political parties


to stick to their manifestos? Well, if it's a straight yes


or no, I think the answer It's partly an individual loss


of integrity for people and partly the whole system is set up that


people have to compromise and lie in order to get votes


and they don't carry it through. I think I would only


trust the SNP, honestly. I think Sturgeon comes


through as truthful. Manifestos, they don't ever really


seem to come to fruition in the way I feel a bit strange


answering this question! They have proven they don't


stick to the manifesto. Lib Dems I think would


but they are not going to get in. Do you think you can trust


the political parties to keep Looks like a trolley


load of empty promises. Well, yes, I suppose


it would be, really. No, I think even the sincerest


parties that might actually want to stick to the policies find


that once they get I think if people can actually stick


with the idea of the promises and maybe some of the detail might


have to change, that is fair enough. That is being practical about things


because things change. Usually, when they say things like,


I am going to fix the problems in the health service or money


or something like this, usually, well, it doesn't always get worse,


but it doesn't usually get better. Any lasting relationship needs trust


and when the political parties come wooing voters in this marginal seat,


they will have their work cut out because no, the majority don't think


that the parties stick They do get a bad rap, don't they?


Deserved when it comes to fulfilling promises?


I think there are some high profile examples of broken promises,


probably looking at you Nick Clegg! I think it is a good conversation to


have as the Labour manifesto is launched because one of the think


about it is there are dozens and dozens of proposals. They are


proposing to introduce something called sectoral bargaining. At the


moment companies negotiate with unions and unions negotiate with


companies. TV presenters across Britain would get the same levels of


pay after negotiation with the unions and somebody else on the


other side of the table. These are the sorts of things we have to


believe can work if we are to believe in the Labour manifesto. How


that will work in practice I don't know so trust is very important,


that is what voters have to decide, whether they do when it comes to Jim


the eighth, and Labour. Speaking to that I think people don't really


pour over point by point the manifesto. It's more about their


vision and a story and imagining what kind of country it could be if


these things came about and that is where Labour stands to gain because


it has that vision. In terms of vision, if that kid is already


cynical and disillusioned with politics they have their work cut


out for them in terms of restoring trust. Talking about children,


Theresa May has been talking to quite a few of them today. She was


in Birmingham in the West Midlands and showing again her human side, it


would seem. I like Harry Potter. I know you like reading those books.


Have you read all of them? No. I'm still on the fourth book. I've read


all of them. They are very good, aren't they?


She is hoping her election manifesto is going to go down well as well as


her words there in that school. The Liberal Democrats are launching


their manifesto on Wednesday, Rachel. The pro-Europe party, is


that going to get them anywhere, do you think? I think people have been


quite surprised at how quickly their polling has eroded in the last few


weeks. I think there was this idea that when the snap election was


called there was an idea they would hoover up the remaining votes, or


the remaining proportion of the public but it seems that isn't


really the case, that that isn't really happening. I can't really see


how they are going to turn that one around. The people that one might


have expected to go to the Liberal Democrats because they were


Remainers and so on and so forth seem to be leaning towards the


Conservatives. I think they made a calculation which is that just under


half of the population voted against Brexit and they thought they could


fish in that pool. Of that 48%, probably about half of those people


think that Brexit should, nevertheless, go ahead even though


they didn't vote for it at the time meaning the maximum size of the Lib


Dem Paul is about 24, 20 5%. They're getting about one in two with the


possible voters they could go for. That's not bad but they have set


themselves quite a low ceiling and breaking out of that isn't easy.


-- 25%. We will hear what they have to say on Wednesday.


Now, while opinions on politics may differ, there's one thing a lot


of us have in common - and that's a good brew.


Our correspondent Amy Harris has taken a tour around some


of our vast and varied outlets in the East Midlands to see


what issues are raising temperature levels ahead


Whether you're a coffee connoisseur or a tea lover.


So what better place than our local cafes to find out


which issues are bringing us to boiling point


First stop, Saints of Mocha in Leicester.


It specialises in colourful coffee and it's clear


which party is flavour of the month here.


Labour's more comprehensive in addressing the needs of young


people, so, student welfare, how they can give them better grants,


I think they're more for working class.


I'd like to see Jeremy Corbyn in charge, he's a


man of a lot of good morals and values.


Out of the city at this truckstop close to the M1 and the


There isn't, though, so much of an appetite for politics.


I just don't believe in any of them, anything they all say, it just seems


I've got no confidence in any of them, basically.


You can vote for one or vote for another.


My grandma always brought me up to be Labour but I


don't think Jeremy Corbyn is the right man for the job.


I don't think he's got what we need really.


Head north to the historic market town of Ashbourne in


Derbyshire and as you might expect rural issues are on the minds of


voters in this Conservative stronghold.


They're destroying the small villages and the entire way of


Will voting Conservative provide that?


We're hoping they will do something to help the older people


that need some support at the moment.


There are lots of things I do disagree with but overall I think


With concerns as varied as this coffee


selection the parties are trying hard to be all things to all people.


But will cafe conversations translate into votes?


You could say the Conservatives are the party of the fancy mucky Artell


and Labour are the party of builders. Clearly Theresa May is


drinking builders in this election, she has parked her tanks on the lawn


which makes this interesting. That is one of the driving factors, using


her own brand to reach out to former Labour voters, maybe people who


voted for Brexit in the referendum and maybe people who switched to


Ukip last time around. I think it is important to stress, here we are


halfway through, a little over half way through and people touch less on


probably the biggest thing of this election campaign, which is not the


performance of Jeremy Corbyn, or how well Theresa May controls her


appearances. The biggest thing will be that one party, Ukip, is


gambling, its vote in the local elections and opinion polls has


basically halved and that means that the centre, centre right of British


politics has reunited behind the British Conservatives, reunited


behind Theresa May, and it is that rather than the wake in which the


Labour Party are doing on any day-to-day basis that will have the


most dramatic impact on June the 8th. It looks as if Ukip isn't going


to stand in 277 seats, that means lots of those votes will inevitably


go to the Conservatives and the Ukip vote is peeling away because people


are not sure what the mission of the parties and the leadership situation


is altogether more confused. That is the thing driving the selection


below the bonnet rather than for instance manifesto launches. Rachel,


we did have a big manifesto launch today from Labour. How do they


appeal to the machiato drinker earning ?80,000 and above? You are


assuming that the mucky odour drinker, if indeed that is what


people over 80,000 drink... I'm just checking that out there. We all


drink Nescafe at BBC. I have tasted your coffee! How does he appeal to


those earning more than the average salary? There is an assumption that


Labour always had its work cut out and has become even more pronounced


pose Brexit because it must appeal to these two constituencies,


traditional working-class base and its middle-class base, people who


voted to remain if we can use broad crude brushstrokes. Has always been


balanced. It comes back to the sort of values it stands for and the kind


of society you want to live in. It is quite likely that when answering


that question the concerns of the over 80,000 and the concerns of the


27,000 might actually collide. Indeed, all right, Rachel and Sam,


it's good to see you both. Thank you for joining us on The Election Wrap


for today and thank you to you for joining