16/05/2017 The Election Wrap

Hello and welcome to The Election Wrap, your essential

guide to the day's campaigning, right across the UK.

Labour and Plaid Cymru, the floor is yours.

Jeremy Corbyn has launched Labour's manifesto in Bradford pledging

billions for the NHS, education and childcare.

The price tag, an eye watering ?48.6 billion.

Labour says it can find the money, but we'll

And in the Rhondda Valley the Welsh nationalists,

Plaid Cymru, say they'll stick up for agriculture

and industry in Brexit talks, at the launch of their manifesto.

They'll make promises they don't keep eventually.

We've taken our hallowed box of balls to Edinburgh,

to see what the good folk there think about politicians

So lots to talk about with our panel.

The journalist and author Rachel Shabi, and Sam Coates of The Times.

Let's catch up on the latest developments from the campaign

Jeremy Corbyn has launched Labour's manifesto in Bradford,

saying it'll appeal to voters right across the country.

Our proposal is a government for the many not the few.

Our proposals are of hope for the many all over this

country and I'm very proud to present our manifesto

It was also the turn of Plaid Cymru and party leader,

Leanne Wood, to push out their manifesto,

voice" to get the best possible Brexit deal for the country.

We're pledging to put Wales at the heart of the negotiations to leave

the European Union so that the final deal reflects the needs of the Welsh

economy. From tool boxes to Harry Potter

books, Theresa May sheds light on her policies,

and personal achievements - And Scotland's First Minister

and SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, told voters to stand up

for Scotland, against what she called, Tory cuts

and the possibility of an extreme We know the biggest risk to Scotland

in the years ahead is an increasingly hardline Tory

government intent on more austerity, more cuts and intent not just on

Brexit but the most extreme form of Brexit possible so we need to make

sure that after this election Scotland's voice is heard loudly and

clearly. It is more important than it has ever been before for

Scotland's voice to be heard, for MPs from Scotland to stand up for

Scotland and protect our interests. With me are, Rachel

Shabi, and Sam Coates. It is good to see you both. It is a

big day, Labour launched its manifesto and the Welsh

nationalists, Plaid Cymru. Manifestos seemed to have everything

the rank and file in the company would love. Does it have wider

appeal, do you think? It seems the policies are popular and what is

interesting about this manifesto now that it has finally come out as the

real thing, it is not just a matter of the individual policies, it is a

vision, it's a recalibration of Britain, different way of looking at

the economy after years of stagnating wages and flat-lining

productivity and spiralling costs. It's trying to address inequalities

and boost the economy in a genuinely different way. I think it is true to

say that there is now a big distinction between the two main

parties. A big distinction but no mention of Brexit, Sam. There was a

little bit of Brexit in the manifesto. Labour struggles with

Brexit as an issue to define itself differently from the Conservatives

on this issue, given that as it were they are going along with it and

promising many of the same things just in slightly different language

to Theresa May. I think Rachel is absolutely right, a big choice,

probably the biggest choice since 1983 when Margaret Thatcher thought

Michael Foot. You have a very big Dur distinctive policies, lots of

money for public services, they pledged to overhaul the labour

market, a large amount of borrowing to fund infrastructure projects and

a lot of national control back from everything from water to energy and

key utilities. Popular some of these things may be, the question will

come down to one of trust. The most significant moments today was that

Len McCluskey, the head of Unite, union, the individual who has backed

Jeremy Corbyn all the way one gave an interview this evening to

Politico in which he said I'm not sure Jeremy Corbyn is going to win,

I think 200 seats would be a good result for the Labour Party, Labour

somewhere closer to 230, 240 at the moment. You have this feeling

amongst the left that even with a manifesto that has been shorn of all

the compromises they've had to make in the past, even when there is

everything they might want to see it might not quite do it. Labour as you

say, mentioned Brexit briefly in their manifesto launch today. The

Welsh nationalists, pride Comrie, Brexit was a big part of their

manifesto launch, here is Leanne Wood, their leader -- Plaid Cymru.

Let's take that message today that Plaid Cymru is ready to defend

Wales, to defend our nation, to defend our economy, to defend our

people and to develop. The Welsh nationalists clearly

believe they can make gains in Wales, Rachel, in a way that,

because Labour has let them down essentially. Yes, Labour has been

struggling in Wales with Corbyn and before Corbyn. It's been a very slow

and steady decline. Plaid as you say have focused on Brexit very strongly

today because of the risks to Wales in terms of having tariff free

access to Europe, the EU, would make a big difference for somewhere like

Wales that is reliant on the kind of access. I can see why she has

stressed that access for her party. Very briefly, Sam. By Afful part is

fishing in the pool for former remain voters and only Conservatives

and Ukip looking to capitalise on the 52% who voted for Brexit in

Wales. Labour had the abacus out, punched

in the figures and their spending It has finally been published

officially and we have been crunching the numbers.

But where does Labour say the money is coming from?

Well, it estimates an extra tax take of ?48.6 billion.

Let's break that down a little, income tax first.

Higher earners will pay more, and we're talking about roughly

the top 5% of earners - we reckon that's about

Earnings above ?80,000 will be taxed at 45%.

With a new 50% rate on earnings above ?123,000.

Labour says this will raise ?6.4 billion per year.

But the biggest increase in tax take, according to Labour's plans,

will come from an increase in corporation tax.

It's currently 19% and Labour plans to increase that

Once that's done, Labour says its corporation tax plans

One really important thing, though, that Labour itself acknowledges is

that companies and individuals change their behaviour when tax

rates change and you also have to take into account the health of the

overall economy. Raising tax rates doesn't always

increase the overall tax take There are other measures

to raise revenue. For example, a levy on what Labour

cause excessive pay starting with a 2.5% levy paid by employers on pay

packages over ?330,000. There is also VAT on private school fees.

The manifesto also says ?6.5 billion will be raised from an aggressive

programme to crack down on tax avoidance.

Political parties always say they'll do that, and it can be done,

Overall, though, Labour says it can finance all its current spending

plans through changes in the tax system.

Does that add up? They are suggesting a ?50 billion increase in

tax, which if it were to be commended by the way it would take

the tax burden in this country to the highest level it has been in

about 70 years. But I think there is an awful lot of uncertainty about

whether you could actually raise that amount of tax. They are talking

about very large increases in taxes on companies which would likely

reduce the amount of investment they do. I think the actual amount you

could get from these policies certainly runs into the tens of

billions but doesn't reach the 50 billion that Labour are claiming. So

that is tax but there are also big plans for investment spending, all

those nationalisation plans you've heard about. Water companies, the

Royal Mail, and so on. Labour says it will borrow money to pay for

future investment, it's talking about a national transformation fund

of ?250 billion but there is no detailed costing of those

nationalisation plans in the manifesto. That will be the source

of controversy and political debate. But Labour does make one bold

promise. It says it is committed to ensuring that the national debt is

Lola at the end of the next parliament than it is today. Sam and

Rachel, I will start with you Sam, on this. Confusion about whether or

not borrowing to buy back and re-nationalised utilities for

instance, or British rail, the National Grid, Royal Mail, or

whatever, whether that actually comes under capital expenditure. The

suggestion is that it doesn't, Labour say it does. What was quite

clear from John McDonnell this morning on the radio is that they

have not decided how many of these renationalisation is will take part.

The one involving rail will happen differently to the one involving the

water utilities. They just don't have a plan. It is hard to fully

cost them. It's worth looking at the market capitalisation of some water

companies, 40 billion in some cases. This is a lot of money will stop it

probably will have to be funded by borrowing in some cases. So, yes, be

it capital spending or otherwise the money still has to be found from

somebody and that is probably by increasing the debt. I will bring

you in in a second, Rachel, we can hear from Sarah Champion, who

confirmed the details are not detailed in the Labour manifesto and

the proposal is an intent and they need to look at the proposal. This

is the reality of being in a position. As a Shadow Secretary of

State which is a great honour and I have had one additional staff.

Doesn't look like you're prepared for government. You say you have

only had three weeks and you're proposing spending billions. I can

answer the question. Mike Catt about who I have sat out in the Tory

government has a couple of thousand people to help develop their ideas.

-- my counterpart. It is tough being in a position because you do not

have an army of civil servants to go through the figures and crunched the

numbers and that kind of stuff. But that clip there does for some

perhaps feed into this idea that Labour are not quite ready. I think

the Conservatives have been very successful perpetuating this myth

that the Labour Party has mismanaged the economy and that lingers. It's

interesting when you look at the way Britain has a problem with

productivity. It is flat-lining. It has a problem with wealth

inequalities which are wider than any other country in Europe. The

rest of Europe looks at us and says why aren't you raising tax? Why

aren't you raising tax on corporations? Organisations as

radical as the IMF are suggesting that we invest in our economy, that

we invest in infrastructure because that is how used in the late growth.

I think these things are quite different. It's a quite different

vision Labour is presenting but it is something that economists have

been advocating for quite some time. But it is precisely because it is

such a radical vision, because so much money is being put out there in

pledges and so on that people are pouring over the figures very, very

carefully. In the end it comes down to trust. I think there is no doubt

that the level of omission, if we can call it that, of this manifesto

is incredibly high so you have to put your faith in Jeremy Corbyn and

John McDonnell to be able to turn around the ship of state and change

the direction and to ensure that the changes that the implement help

contribute to a more successful the economic economy. You have to put a

lot more trust in politicians promising to do that than

politicians promising to do slightly more incremental visions that

doesn't involve borrowing on this scale and spending on this scale and

renationalisation of this scale. Talking about promises this is a big

week for the main parties with a positive plethora of manifesto is

being launched. But do voters the politicians will

stick to their promises, if elected? Ellie Price has been

in Edinburgh South, a constituency that'll see a right old ding dong,

come election day. # I need a little time

to think it over... They all make promises

they don't keep eventually. Do you trust the political parties

to stick to their manifestos? Well, if it's a straight yes

or no, I think the answer It's partly an individual loss

of integrity for people and partly the whole system is set up that

people have to compromise and lie in order to get votes

and they don't carry it through. I think I would only

trust the SNP, honestly. I think Sturgeon comes

through as truthful. Manifestos, they don't ever really

seem to come to fruition in the way I feel a bit strange

answering this question! They have proven they don't

stick to the manifesto. Lib Dems I think would

but they are not going to get in. Do you think you can trust

the political parties to keep Looks like a trolley

load of empty promises. Well, yes, I suppose

it would be, really. No, I think even the sincerest

parties that might actually want to stick to the policies find

that once they get I think if people can actually stick

with the idea of the promises and maybe some of the detail might

have to change, that is fair enough. That is being practical about things

because things change. Usually, when they say things like,

I am going to fix the problems in the health service or money

or something like this, usually, well, it doesn't always get worse,

but it doesn't usually get better. Any lasting relationship needs trust

and when the political parties come wooing voters in this marginal seat,

they will have their work cut out because no, the majority don't think

that the parties stick They do get a bad rap, don't they?

Deserved when it comes to fulfilling promises?

I think there are some high profile examples of broken promises,

probably looking at you Nick Clegg! I think it is a good conversation to

have as the Labour manifesto is launched because one of the think

about it is there are dozens and dozens of proposals. They are

proposing to introduce something called sectoral bargaining. At the

moment companies negotiate with unions and unions negotiate with

companies. TV presenters across Britain would get the same levels of

pay after negotiation with the unions and somebody else on the

other side of the table. These are the sorts of things we have to

believe can work if we are to believe in the Labour manifesto. How

that will work in practice I don't know so trust is very important,

that is what voters have to decide, whether they do when it comes to Jim

the eighth, and Labour. Speaking to that I think people don't really

pour over point by point the manifesto. It's more about their

vision and a story and imagining what kind of country it could be if

these things came about and that is where Labour stands to gain because

it has that vision. In terms of vision, if that kid is already

cynical and disillusioned with politics they have their work cut

out for them in terms of restoring trust. Talking about children,

Theresa May has been talking to quite a few of them today. She was

in Birmingham in the West Midlands and showing again her human side, it

would seem. I like Harry Potter. I know you like reading those books.

Have you read all of them? No. I'm still on the fourth book. I've read

all of them. They are very good, aren't they?

She is hoping her election manifesto is going to go down well as well as

her words there in that school. The Liberal Democrats are launching

their manifesto on Wednesday, Rachel. The pro-Europe party, is

that going to get them anywhere, do you think? I think people have been

quite surprised at how quickly their polling has eroded in the last few

weeks. I think there was this idea that when the snap election was

called there was an idea they would hoover up the remaining votes, or

the remaining proportion of the public but it seems that isn't

really the case, that that isn't really happening. I can't really see

how they are going to turn that one around. The people that one might

have expected to go to the Liberal Democrats because they were

Remainers and so on and so forth seem to be leaning towards the

Conservatives. I think they made a calculation which is that just under

half of the population voted against Brexit and they thought they could

fish in that pool. Of that 48%, probably about half of those people

think that Brexit should, nevertheless, go ahead even though

they didn't vote for it at the time meaning the maximum size of the Lib

Dem Paul is about 24, 20 5%. They're getting about one in two with the

possible voters they could go for. That's not bad but they have set

themselves quite a low ceiling and breaking out of that isn't easy.

-- 25%. We will hear what they have to say on Wednesday.

Now, while opinions on politics may differ, there's one thing a lot

of us have in common - and that's a good brew.

Our correspondent Amy Harris has taken a tour around some

of our vast and varied outlets in the East Midlands to see

what issues are raising temperature levels ahead

Whether you're a coffee connoisseur or a tea lover.

So what better place than our local cafes to find out

which issues are bringing us to boiling point

First stop, Saints of Mocha in Leicester.

It specialises in colourful coffee and it's clear

which party is flavour of the month here.

Labour's more comprehensive in addressing the needs of young

people, so, student welfare, how they can give them better grants,

I think they're more for working class.

I'd like to see Jeremy Corbyn in charge, he's a

man of a lot of good morals and values.

Out of the city at this truckstop close to the M1 and the

There isn't, though, so much of an appetite for politics.

I just don't believe in any of them, anything they all say, it just seems

I've got no confidence in any of them, basically.

You can vote for one or vote for another.

My grandma always brought me up to be Labour but I

don't think Jeremy Corbyn is the right man for the job.

I don't think he's got what we need really.

Head north to the historic market town of Ashbourne in

Derbyshire and as you might expect rural issues are on the minds of

voters in this Conservative stronghold.

They're destroying the small villages and the entire way of

Will voting Conservative provide that?

We're hoping they will do something to help the older people

that need some support at the moment.

There are lots of things I do disagree with but overall I think

With concerns as varied as this coffee

selection the parties are trying hard to be all things to all people.

But will cafe conversations translate into votes?

You could say the Conservatives are the party of the fancy mucky Artell

and Labour are the party of builders. Clearly Theresa May is

drinking builders in this election, she has parked her tanks on the lawn

which makes this interesting. That is one of the driving factors, using

her own brand to reach out to former Labour voters, maybe people who

voted for Brexit in the referendum and maybe people who switched to

Ukip last time around. I think it is important to stress, here we are

halfway through, a little over half way through and people touch less on

probably the biggest thing of this election campaign, which is not the

performance of Jeremy Corbyn, or how well Theresa May controls her

appearances. The biggest thing will be that one party, Ukip, is

gambling, its vote in the local elections and opinion polls has

basically halved and that means that the centre, centre right of British

politics has reunited behind the British Conservatives, reunited

behind Theresa May, and it is that rather than the wake in which the

Labour Party are doing on any day-to-day basis that will have the

most dramatic impact on June the 8th. It looks as if Ukip isn't going

to stand in 277 seats, that means lots of those votes will inevitably

go to the Conservatives and the Ukip vote is peeling away because people

are not sure what the mission of the parties and the leadership situation

is altogether more confused. That is the thing driving the selection

below the bonnet rather than for instance manifesto launches. Rachel,

we did have a big manifesto launch today from Labour. How do they

appeal to the machiato drinker earning ?80,000 and above? You are

assuming that the mucky odour drinker, if indeed that is what

people over 80,000 drink... I'm just checking that out there. We all

drink Nescafe at BBC. I have tasted your coffee! How does he appeal to

those earning more than the average salary? There is an assumption that

Labour always had its work cut out and has become even more pronounced

pose Brexit because it must appeal to these two constituencies,

traditional working-class base and its middle-class base, people who

voted to remain if we can use broad crude brushstrokes. Has always been

balanced. It comes back to the sort of values it stands for and the kind

of society you want to live in. It is quite likely that when answering

that question the concerns of the over 80,000 and the concerns of the

27,000 might actually collide. Indeed, all right, Rachel and Sam,

it's good to see you both. Thank you for joining us on The Election Wrap

for today and thank you to you for joining