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Now that Abigail is moving away, | 0:00:03 | 0:00:05 | |
we're turning our attention to the weekend. | 0:00:05 | 0:00:08 | |
I will talk about the outlook in just a few minutes. | 0:00:08 | 0:00:10 | |
But rain is going to be a big feature, | 0:00:10 | 0:00:13 | |
a disruptive feature, this weekend, | 0:00:13 | 0:00:15 | |
because our next area of low pressure | 0:00:15 | 0:00:17 | |
contains the remnants of the tropical air from Hurricane Kate. | 0:00:17 | 0:00:20 | |
An ex-hurricane now but, nevertheless, | 0:00:20 | 0:00:22 | |
it's got a lot of warmth and moisture within that cloud system | 0:00:22 | 0:00:26 | |
which is developing into this really quite elongated area of low pressure | 0:00:26 | 0:00:30 | |
with a strong south-westerly wind. | 0:00:30 | 0:00:32 | |
When you've got tropical air, | 0:00:32 | 0:00:34 | |
it's got a good ability to contain an awful lot of water. | 0:00:34 | 0:00:38 | |
Rain is the real concern on this system. | 0:00:38 | 0:00:40 | |
As it comes in, it'll come across the cold air in Scotland, | 0:00:40 | 0:00:43 | |
giving some snow here over the hills. | 0:00:43 | 0:00:45 | |
It'll feel pretty chilly on Saturday | 0:00:45 | 0:00:47 | |
across many central, eastern and northern areas. | 0:00:47 | 0:00:49 | |
Eventually, we'll see a rise in temperature late in the day | 0:00:49 | 0:00:52 | |
as that south-westerly takes hold. | 0:00:52 | 0:00:54 | |
But, really, the temperatures | 0:00:54 | 0:00:55 | |
obviously making it feel quite miserable out there. | 0:00:55 | 0:00:58 | |
But the real story is the rain, | 0:00:58 | 0:00:59 | |
because once it arrives, it's with us through the weekend. | 0:00:59 | 0:01:02 | |
Uncertainty as to exactly how far north the heaviest rain will be | 0:01:02 | 0:01:06 | |
or, indeed, how far south. | 0:01:06 | 0:01:08 | |
But at the moment, it looks to have its sights set | 0:01:08 | 0:01:11 | |
on parts of north-west England, notably Cumbria, | 0:01:11 | 0:01:14 | |
across the Pennines as well, and north Wales. | 0:01:14 | 0:01:16 | |
These are peak values, 150 to 200 millimetres. | 0:01:16 | 0:01:19 | |
Many areas will get 50 to 100. | 0:01:19 | 0:01:21 | |
But clearly, that amount of rainfall | 0:01:21 | 0:01:23 | |
is going to have some far-reaching impacts. | 0:01:23 | 0:01:25 | |
Clearly, there'll be some flooding, quite significant flooding, | 0:01:25 | 0:01:29 | |
and also disruption to transport. | 0:01:29 | 0:01:31 | |
So, please do stay tuned to the forecast this weekend | 0:01:31 | 0:01:34 | |
if you live in those areas, | 0:01:34 | 0:01:35 | |
because as you can see, on Sunday as well, | 0:01:35 | 0:01:37 | |
it's still raining and blowing a gale. | 0:01:37 | 0:01:40 | |
That gale, or strong to gale-force wind, | 0:01:40 | 0:01:42 | |
blowing in yet more moist air | 0:01:42 | 0:01:44 | |
over the mountains of north Wales, Cumbria. | 0:01:44 | 0:01:46 | |
We mustn't forget that Northern Ireland, | 0:01:46 | 0:01:48 | |
parts of south-west Scotland, could be in the firing line | 0:01:48 | 0:01:50 | |
for some very wet weather, which could have flooding, | 0:01:50 | 0:01:53 | |
significant flooding, impacts as well, | 0:01:53 | 0:01:55 | |
hence the advice to stay tuned to the forecast. | 0:01:55 | 0:01:57 | |
That does eventually clear out of the way, | 0:01:57 | 0:01:59 | |
that low pressure whips itself up Sunday evening, | 0:01:59 | 0:02:01 | |
some severe gales in the north and then it clears away, | 0:02:01 | 0:02:03 | |
before we're looking out into the Atlantic for the next one. | 0:02:03 | 0:02:06 | |
Some rather wet and windy weather to start the day on Monday, | 0:02:06 | 0:02:09 | |
severe gales in the north, and later in the day, yet more rain, | 0:02:09 | 0:02:13 | |
back into the same sort of areas, | 0:02:13 | 0:02:15 | |
Northern Ireland, crossing the Irish Sea into north Wales, | 0:02:15 | 0:02:17 | |
into north-west England. | 0:02:17 | 0:02:19 | |
Temporarily, it'll feel a bit chilly again on Monday. | 0:02:19 | 0:02:21 | |
It's worth noting that through Saturday night and Sunday, | 0:02:21 | 0:02:24 | |
it will be very mild for the time of year. | 0:02:24 | 0:02:26 | |
But, as I say, that area of low pressure's moving out of the way | 0:02:26 | 0:02:28 | |
and we're seeing the next one coming in for Tuesday. | 0:02:28 | 0:02:31 | |
Tuesday looks as if it could once again be a very wet day, | 0:02:31 | 0:02:35 | |
and for areas where we'll have seen a lot of wet weather this weekend. | 0:02:35 | 0:02:39 | |
The concern this weekend is river levels are already high, | 0:02:39 | 0:02:42 | |
the ground's already saturated, | 0:02:42 | 0:02:44 | |
and we're coming up against the same problems on Tuesday. | 0:02:44 | 0:02:46 | |
Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure for once, | 0:02:46 | 0:02:49 | |
so some drier, clearer weather for a time. | 0:02:49 | 0:02:51 | |
But, again, it doesn't last. | 0:02:51 | 0:02:53 | |
We've got the next band of rain, | 0:02:53 | 0:02:54 | |
this time pushing, we think, towards the north and the west. | 0:02:54 | 0:02:57 | |
That's because we're seeing more of a buckle, potentially, | 0:02:57 | 0:03:00 | |
in the jet stream. | 0:03:00 | 0:03:01 | |
After that one moves through on Thursday, | 0:03:01 | 0:03:03 | |
we start to see this buckle in the jet stream. | 0:03:03 | 0:03:05 | |
As it moves southwards, it allows us | 0:03:05 | 0:03:07 | |
to get onto the cold side of our jet stream, | 0:03:07 | 0:03:09 | |
into some colder air, some polar air, potentially, for a time. | 0:03:09 | 0:03:13 | |
So, it's possible that towards the end of the week next week, | 0:03:13 | 0:03:17 | |
we might have our first significant cold snap. | 0:03:17 | 0:03:20 | |
Temperatures actually a little bit below average, night-time frost, | 0:03:20 | 0:03:23 | |
and a real shock to the system. | 0:03:23 | 0:03:25 | |
Between now and then, particularly this weekend, huge concerns, | 0:03:25 | 0:03:28 | |
amber warnings out from the Met Office for some flooding. | 0:03:28 | 0:03:30 |