16/11/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead

Snow. If ever there's a word to gain maximum interest

at the start of a forecast, it's that one,

and, given the weather we have had recently,

snow may not be the first thing you are expecting me to talk about.

However, this is the forecast that looks further ahead than the others,

and by next weekend, it looks like we are going to be in air cold enough to

produce snow and for some of us, the first snow we've seen this season.

But, until then, it's proper autumn weather still in control.

More wet and windy weather to come and that's

because we've got an active jet stream driving in these

areas of low pressure across the Atlantic towards us.

One for Monday, one for Tuesday, another for Wednesday

and one always quite close by to northern Scotland.

So let's see how this week pans out day by day.

For Monday, there is a break

from the incessant rain some of us have had over the weekend.

There are showers, though, still towards the north-west of the UK.

Hail and thunder possible with these.

Cold enough to be wintery on the tops of the hills at this stage,

and even stronger winds for a time in northern Scotland producing

here gusts above 70mph, so there could be some further disruption.

And more rain to come from a quick-moving weather system towards

southern parts of the UK Monday night and into Tuesday morning.

Tuesday still very windy across northern Scotland for a time.

Then this low pressure comes in later on Tuesday,

an it's this that promises more rain for areas

that don't need it -

northern England, North Wales, Northern Ireland too.

Northern extent still uncertain. Scotland stays in fairly chilly air.

Still mild to the south.

Strengthening winds, though,

on the southern flank of this area of low pressure.

That means the risk of disruptive gales to parts of South Wales

and southern England, in particular.

So that's something to watch. That's system pulls away on Tuesday night.

There is a very brief ridge of high pressure coming in.

So the winds easing going into Wednesday morning,

especially across northern parts.

Allowing a cold start with a touch of frost.

Bit of a lull, then, first thing Wednesday,

but then that next area of low pressure coming in.

That's bringing rain to parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland,

again with strengthening winds.

Still southern parts of the UK in the unusually mild air with

temperatures into the mid teens.

That system then drives rain south-eastwards late

Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Some heavy bursts, further heavy, squally showers

following on behind to western parts, in particular, on Thursday.

Maybe merging to give some longer spells of rain in Scotland.

Those winds are strong, near gale,

if not gale towards western coasts on Thursday.

Then we begin the gradual transition to colder air right across the UK.

You can see the isobars lining up to the north.

That colder air pushing south Thursday into Friday.

But, as yet, there is some uncertainty about the timing,

and that comes from this weather front close to southern England

that could keep some of us still in the mild air on Friday

and still with some outbreaks of rain.

But if you're not in the cold air by the end of Friday, you will be going

into next weekend and that is going to bring those wintery showers,

those snow showers,

to ever lower levels across the northern half of Britain, but not

necessarily just across the northern half of Britain next weekend.

Again, something we need to be keeping a close eye on.

So, next weekend - cold. Colder still when you factor in the wind.

So wind chill will be an issue, and again, we have that risk of snow.

Nothing unusual for the time of year,

just very unusual compared to what we've had.

It looks as if going into the following week,

temperatures come up a little bit, so this may be a short, sharp shock.

But a reminder that we are getting ever closer to winter. Bye for now.

In this job, we must always be prepared to take risks.

Strike! Strike!

Support your fellow officers.

Wait till someone's vulnerable, then knock 'em down.

Good advice, Dad.

All the pressures of the force.