26/12/2015 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. There is no sign

of our weather patterns changing significantly,

even as we head into the start of 2016,

which means, yes, more weather systems

coming in from the Atlantic.

Our weather generally coming up

from the south-west.

So, it seems pretty mild,

and it stays often wet

and frequently blustery too,

with low pressure system

after low pressure system.

This one in particular

giving us headaches at the moment.

Slow-moving weather fronts

bringing persistent rain during Boxing Day

across parts of North Wales,

Northern England, Southern Scotland -

anywhere in this zone at risk of flooding.

The Met office has an Amber - be prepared - Warning

in force for parts of Cumbria and Lancashire,

because here we are just so sensitive

after all the rain of recent weeks.

Further south, it is another dry,

rather drab day on Boxing Day.

It is a bit blustery.

We could see some brightness.

Overall, it is just mild and cloudy.

Then, we are into the rain -

persistent, heavy rain.

North Wales, much of Northern England

and Southern Scotland too.

Could be some rain for a time

across the east of Northern Ireland.

Of course, Northern Scotland,

there will be a fair bit of snow falling

over the hills here.

But, as I say, the greatest cause for concern

from the slow-moving weather front

across Southern Scotland and Northern England

and North Wales.

That is where we have those weather warnings in force.

This wriggling weather front,

well, there is always some uncertainty

when we get these little ripples on them.

Again, some question marks about exactly where

this band of rain is sitting for Sunday,

but, again, the threat of some more rain

into Sunday morning

across Northern England and North Wales.

It is going to be fizzling out

as we go through Sunday.

That band of rain marks the boundary

between the really mild conditions in the south,

and, well, the more typical conditions -

temperatures close to average across Scotland.

There will be some sunshine here.

Monday's chart -

it is all about weather fronts and isobars,

but, again, those isobars pointing well down to the south,

south-west, drawing up relatively mild air.

That mild air is set to last

throughout the rest of this year.

Particularly so on Monday -

temperatures, well, we see some sunshine,

could get into the teens once more.

A little cooler perhaps

on some of these eastern coasts,

but even here, 10 or 11 is above average.

A warmer day across Western Scotland,

and further south, as I say,

we could get 13 or 14 Celsius.

Then, for Tuesday and Wednesday,

we are keeping our eyes on this area

of low pressure intensifying.

Look at the number of isobars around that low.

It could get very, very windy indeed.

A few days off,

some uncertainty about the track of that storm,

but the potential for some stormy weather

arriving late on Tuesday.

Ahead of it, we have still got southerly winds,

it's still mild.

It's generally a dry day

until that rain starts to arrive in the west.

Then, it's very wet and very windy,

it looks like, on Tuesday night

and through Wednesday.

The potential for severe gales.

The potential for more heavy rain

as that intense area of low pressure moves through.

It looks most like as if

it will go to the north of Scotland.

Why so lively, the weather?

Well, we have to look high up

at the jet stream -

that fast-moving ribbon of air,

30,000 feet up.

There is a bit of a dip in it,

which can be a breeding ground for low pressure systems,

and a very active jet stream

set to drive another intensifying area of low pressure,

certainly close to the UK

as we head towards the New Year.

So, we are going to keep our eyes peeled

over the next few days, for the rest of next week.

Again, likely to see some strong winds,

potential for further flooding,

and even into the start of the New Year -

very little change.

Spells of wind and rain,

there'll be drier interludes.

Overall, this very mild theme

will continue.

All the weather warnings will be constantly updated

on the BBC weather website.

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