05/01/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead

With flooding again ongoing as I speak, I know many of you watching

will just be hoping that we at the Weather Centre can magically

turn the taps off and bring some more prolonged dry weather at long last.

Stay tuned, there may be hope on the horizon, but for the time being,

it's the familiar story. Low pressure plonked slap bang

on top of us and along this frontal zone just to the north,

that is where the most persistent rain has been

for the last two days across eastern Scotland, and will continue

to be so for the next 24 hours or so.

Quite a lot of snow up over the high ground,

but of course the rain is the main concern.

Warnings will continue to be updated hour by hour,

and the risk of persistent rain extends

into north-east England as well.

The feel of the day not helped by that strong easterly wind,

very rough seas indeed. Cold, bleak, wet and windy here.

Elsewhere, there will be some sharp showers too

particularly out west with some slow-moving downpours

across parts of Wales, south-west England as well.

Somebody somewhere will avoid these and have a dry day.

Most likely across south-eastern parts of England and Wales,

and with light winds it shouldn't feel too bad,

but colder further north, and particularly raw where it

stays wet across eastern Scotland and north-east England.

By Wednesday morning, we've got another concern and that's fog.

We could see some persistent fog across parts of south-east

England into Wednesday morning and some of the major airports

could be affected so watch out for disruption and warnings.

It could be a murky start across this part of the world

but by and large actually, Wednesday a better day.

We'll have lost much of the persistent rain,

still some wintry showers across the east of Scotland

where it will feel chilly. The winds won't be as strong though

and further south light winds and plenty of dry weather.

It doesn't last though.

The next frontal system comes charging in off the Atlantic,

another batch of wet weather just as we don't need it

and that front then gets hooked up across the north-east

of Scotland. Again we could see some more prolonged wet weather

and quite a lot of snow up over the high ground.

We'll keep an eye on that. For the rest of us,

it should brighten up once the fronts move through,

there will be some sunshine but the brisk wind will carry some showers

and it will feel quite chilly, 4-5 degrees in the north,

but milder in the south. As we end the week,

that front still not really clear of the far north-east

so we will have to keep a very close eye on that,

and that cold air is still there, but further south,

some sunshine, some showers,

and it won't be as cold further south,

and then as we end the week, low pressure still in control,

and we're going to have to monitor this set of fronts

snaking up from the south-west, which gives the potential

for another batch of wet and windy weather,

initially across the south-west, moving its way north-eastwards

and then as that encounters the cold air, we could see some

snow up over the high ground of northern Britain,

but let's take a step back and give you the reason

for my tentative optimism.

We've got some unusually high pressure

building across the North Pole, and what that serves to do is

to push out cold air, a bit like dense treacle.

It gets squeezed out by the high in various directions.

We've had a cold plunge across Europe in recent days

and as we head into next week, we could well see

a cold plunge further west coming down across the Atlantic

in our direction.

It is a long way off but the computer models are beginning to agree

that we are going to see something of a significant change,

turning notably colder with widespread frost,

some wintry showers, but the most important thing perhaps

is it looks like turning significantly drier

than for some considerable time.

I'll update you again tomorrow.