01/02/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


01/02/2016

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We're heading into a different month, but it is the same weather -

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changeable, sometimes stormy. In fact, much as we saw in January.

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Let's take a moment to look back at January's weather.

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It started with scenes like this, more flooding,

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this time in eastern Scotland.

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Aberdeenshire had its wettest January on record.

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Looking at the UK as a whole,

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provisionally for the month the Met Office says January was wetter

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and milder than average.

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Not quite as wet or as mild as December, mind you.

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It had these big swings of temperature,

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the coldest weather of the winter so far, minus 12 in Highland Scotland,

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but near 17 Celsius at times.

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There are more swings in the weather on the way this week,

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but the main focus as the week begins is the strength of wind,

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another named storm coming our way,

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Storm Henry winding itself up in the Atlantic.

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We think those winds will peak on Monday night in Scotland,

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which is covered, much of Scotland, by a Met Office

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amber "be prepared" warning

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for the disruption that Henry is likely to cause.

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As Monday begins, northern England, Northern Ireland, Scotland already

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seeing some gusts around 50, 60mph, winds strengthening across the UK.

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A weakening band of rain heading south,

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cloudy throughout in south-east England.

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Elsewhere, sunny spells developing, but showers, hail, thunder possible,

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wintry on hills again in Scotland as colder air starts to spread south.

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Again, those winds strengthening all the time, really rattling

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through the mountains of North Wales,

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particularly northern England, Northern Ireland, 60, 70mph gusts.

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But in Scotland, late in the afternoon to the evening

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and night, 70 to 80mph gusts possibly even in the central

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belt, and in the far north and north-west up to 90mph.

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Big, dangerous waves crashing into the coastline here, as well.

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So a nasty storm with disruption likely to continue into the first

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part of Tuesday as Henry only slowly moves off towards Scandinavia.

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So, on Tuesday, then, a very windy start, winds slowly easing,

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sunshine and showers, a colder feel,

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so a wintry flavour to those showers, particularly on hills.

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Strong winds may come back to parts of Northern Ireland,

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north-west England, North Wales late in the day.

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That's something we'll keep an eye on.

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But going into Wednesday, there's a gap in-between weather systems

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and a brief ridge of high pressure, something quieter coming our way.

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A colder day on Wednesday.

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There'll probably be frost to start and end the day, some sunshine.

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If you like dry, sunny weather, this is the better day of the week.

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So for a time, we can relax.

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But not for long. This very active jet stream pushing weather systems

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across the Atlantic has another one for us Thursday into Friday.

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Initially on Thursday,

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it'll be a warm front spreading northwards with

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outbreaks of rain, more cloud around, of course, with that and

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temperatures starting to head up, so getting back into the milder air.

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Only briefly, though, because by Friday,

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this deep area of low pressure - not quite as deep, we think,

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as Henry but still making it very windy, especially in Scotland -

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will move to the north of the UK

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on Friday, driving a band of heavy rain southwards, sunshine,

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showers following on behind with colder air once again

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but another windy day on Friday.

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That's what I mean by the changeable weather continuing into February.

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We're going to start, of course, stormy with Storm Henry,

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but then something a bit quieter but colder

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settling in for the middle of the week, but it doesn't last long

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as we get more wet and windy weather coming back for the end of the week.

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Now, going into next weekend, as this latest wet and windy

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weather system moves away, it drags colder air back in across the UK.

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Next weekend, into the start of the second week of February,

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still unsettled but looking colder.

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There's a chance in the second week of February of something colder

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but more settled coming our way...

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briefly. Briefly will be better than not at all.

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