07/09/2016 Weather for the Week Ahead


07/09/2016

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Hello. We may live on a relatively small group of islands,

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but the weather we experience often originates

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well beyond our shores,

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which is why I'm showing you this picture

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from onshore flooding

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at Cabo San Lucas in Mexico

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as the hurricane has just made landfall,

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Hurricane Newton.

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What that almost 6,000 miles away

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has got to do with our weather next week,

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well, I'm about to reveal.

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First of all, though,

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to our weather in the here and now.

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Wednesday beginning with low pressure

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to the west of us,

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high pressure to the east of us,

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a flow of air from the south.

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A little change in orientation of that flow

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eventually bringing some drier and clearer weather

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our way from the south during Wednesday,

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which means, particularly across the Channel Islands,

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southern England and south Wales,

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more in the way of sunshine

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compared with Tuesday by the end of the day.

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Elsewhere, variable cloud, some sunny spells.

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Cloud or sunshine,

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it is warm and humid once again.

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But by Thursday, this weather front,

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changing the flow from a southerly

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to a south-westerly,

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introduces fresher Atlantic weather our way.

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Now, on it, an early splash of rain for northern England

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and Scotland behind the diffused showers

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with that fresher air.

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A bit warm with East Anglia and the south-east,

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but all of us getting into some fresher conditions,

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making it easier for sleeping, too.

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Now, going into Friday, we do have another weather system

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coming our way - a weak one, initially,

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a stronger one later in the day.

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Still some good sunny spells around,

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a few showers developing that could be heavy,

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but then heavier rain coming into Northern Ireland

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with strengthening winds as the day goes on

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and that heavier rain sweeping eastwards

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during Friday night and into Saturday.

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Now, still some uncertainty about how quickly

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that's going to clear away

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from eastern parts of England on Saturday morning,

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but it could be a few hours of still relatively heavy rain

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to come here before sunshine and showers follow on behind

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and again an even slightly fresher, by this stage, flow

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coming in from the west

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so temperatures come down a few degrees.

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For part two of the weekend on Sunday,

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after a ridge of high pressure,

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we see another weather system

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coming in from the Atlantic.

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So what we're seeing with the weather system

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on Friday night and this one on Sunday

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is the potential for some heavier rain

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and stronger winds associated with them.

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One of the reasons for that, well,

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we're back with that hurricane

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that's just made landfall in Mexico

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and here's how it looks

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on the satellite picture.

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It's not just this -

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remember Hermine that went through Florida?

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What's left of that fairly ragged area of cloud

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just sitting off the coast of New York.

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Both these systems are feeding tropical air

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northwards across North America

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into the mid latitudes -

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that's where we live -

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and one of the effects of that

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is felt high in the atmosphere

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with the jet stream.

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It thrives off the big temperature gradient

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between the colder air to the north of it

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and the warmer air to the south of it.

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This tropical air is warming the air

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to the south of it

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so there's a bigger temperature gradient.

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It's strengthening the jet stream

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coming out of North America across the Atlantic

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to us next week and that strengthens

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the weather systems carried on it.

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I'm not saying next week is going to be stormy,

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but catch one of these weather systems,

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they'll tend to pass to the north-west of the UK

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with some heavier rain and stronger winds.

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But there are gaps,

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there are peaks and troughs

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in this weather system

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so if you're in one of the gaps,

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you may see a surge of quite warm

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and fairly pleasant weather

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coming in from the south.

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All of that means is that next week

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is looking changeable.

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Temperatures will tend

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to be a bit above average.

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There will be some wet weather at times

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and stronger winds, mostly focused

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towards the north-west of the UK,

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occasionally further south,

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but relatively drier here

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and warmer in comparison.

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I have to say that tropical weather

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does add uncertainty to the forecast.

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The computer model struggled to deal with it

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so I'll show you the trends.

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Keep checking the day-to-day forecast

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for the latest.

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Everybody loves sitcom. I've watched a lot of telly,

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and I know them extremely well. I'm hoping to win.

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