14/04/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

The Easter weekend is almost upon us and, as predicted,

it's not exactly looking ideal.

We're certainly expecting quite a bit of cloud, the possibility

of some rain and it's also going to be on the cool side.

In fact, by the time we get to Saturday,

winds coming straight out of the Arctic.

We're not expecting Arctic weather, but it is going to be chilly.

So Good Friday, a fair bit of cloud across the UK.

You can see where the blobs of rain are, affecting many western

and northern areas of the UK,

probably the best of the weather across the south coast here.

Looking out to sea, we could have some sunshine,

showers in Scotland and it's going to be a cool day.

Maybe 16 in London because it's a bigger city.

But for most of us around 10 to 13 degrees.

So a fresh day on the way on Good Friday.

Then through Good Friday into Saturday, the weather fronts,

which bring all the cloud and spots of rain, move across the country.

Behind the weather front, the winds swing direction and we start

to import colder air coming in from the north.

You can see the temperatures much lower already across Scotland.

So the colder air on Saturday originates all the way from

here, from the Arctic.

By the time it reaches our shores, it's not that cold any more.

Let's call it cool. So quite a fresh day on the way on Saturday.

But, actually,

probably the best day of the Easter weekend because there will be

a lot of sunshine around, it's just not going to be warm at all.

In fact, across Scotland, in Glasgow, for example,

temperatures not higher than around 9 degrees during the daytime.

So on the nippy side.

Probably lower than we'd like to have it this time of the year.

Here's Easter Day.

High pressure close to south-western areas of the UK.

So perhaps Cornwall, Devon, most of the West Country,

the southern counties enjoying the best of the sunshine on Easter Day.

More northern areas here,

looks like a bit more cloud because there is a weather front.

That weather front's going to hang around through Easter Monday

as well.

So high pressure, a weak one,

is never too far away and that basically means that

the further south-west you are, the better the weather will be.

Closer to the east coast where we have lows running down from

the north, close to the North Sea,

that's where we're going to see the more unsettled weather.

On Tuesday, the high pressure tries to squeeze in itself across

most of the UK.

So it does looks as though the southern two thirds of the

country are looking dry.

This is very uncertain, by the way.

Whereas northern areas possibly getting a little bit of rainfall.

This rain, in fact, could be here, could be a little bit further south.

Now, look what happens as we head into the middle of next week.

A more substantial area of high pressure here. Low pressure there.

When you get this sort of set-up,

the winds keep on coming in from that north-westerly direction.

So the weather is not changing, the air's not about to warm up.

Still those measly temperatures of 9 in the north, maybe 14 in the south.

And, to be honest, into next week, looking at it schematically,

we still have that low here,

the high pressure there and that cooler air stream.

We've been looking at this for a few days now.

There is a hint that a little bit later on next week,

perhaps this high pulls away.

That's not great news because it may also mean that the low pressures

have more room, if you like,

to push through the UK and bring us slightly more unsettled weather.

But it is very uncertain. Why is the forecast so uncertain?

When the jet stream is very weak, very slack,

we don't really get much movement in the atmosphere.

It's very difficult to predict where the highs and lows are going to be.

So, to summarise it, very briefly, next week northern areas are

likely to catch showers, maybe some showers in the east too.

Always the best of the weather across the south-west.

Thanks for watching and have a great Easter.