24/05/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello there. We've still got some uncertainty in the outlook

but in the run-up to the bank holiday weekend

it's all about the heat building and temperatures rising.

We're getting high pressure moving over the UK right now

so it's keeping just about everywhere fine and dry.

The centre of the high pressure will drift away towards the east

into the near Continent, allowing us to pick up

this continental air ahead of a weather front here,

and it's that continental air that will bring more sunshine

and higher temperatures by the end of the week.

Mind you, it's going to be quite warm on Wednesday.

Areas that start sunny will see some cloud developing,

areas that start with cloud will see some sunshine developing.

And but for one or two showers in Scotland in the afternoon,

the afternoon should be fine and dry.

And even though there will be quite a bit of cloud around,

it's quite warm air, so temperatures widely into the low 20s,

perhaps a few degrees higher than that towards the south-east.

That cloud continues to break up, though, as we head into the evening.

Clear skies developing fairly widely overnight,

more cloud towards the north-west of Scotland,

and maybe some misty patches of low cloud

across central parts of England.

But quite a warm night after the warmth of the day -

16, 17 degrees Cardiff and London overnight.

So there's our area of high pressure,

right over the UK on Thursday,

beginning to drift away towards the east,

but keeping it fine and dry.

So the story, really, for Thursday is more sunshine.

The air continuing to descend, breaking up the cloud.

We won't see much development of cloud through the day.

Some patches of cloud developing, but not as much.

So some spells of sunshine, not much of a breeze at all,

and temperatures getting up to 23 degrees in Glasgow,

25, 26, possibly higher than that in the south-east of England.

And then on Friday, that warmth continues to push its way northwards

into Northern Ireland, up into Scotland as well.

Widely temperatures into the mid-teens.

The wind starts to pick up through the Channel

and across Northern Ireland as well. That's because the high's centre

is getting pulled away to the near Continent.

And approaching from the west, we've got these weather fronts

and an area of low pressure on that weather front as well,

so perhaps starting to see some changes into Northern Ireland,

Wales and the south-west. A threat of some thundery showers.

But ahead of it, this warm and quite muggy air

with temperatures not far away from 30 degrees once again.

Over the course of Saturday night and into Sunday,

that low pressure takes the heavy rain up towards Scotland,

clears through England and Wales

and we're left with some sunshine around

but also some showers too.

Slightly fresher air in the west,

but still some warmth across the eastern side of England.

So far, so good.

Things then start to get complicated,

because some computer models

want to draw in these showers that are not far away from the UK,

push them northwards together with some warm air,

and the potential for some thunderstorms.

Other computer models push those showers away more quickly

and build this area of high pressure in from the Atlantic.

That will tend to move in across the UK.

We've got weather systems,

an area of low pressure brushing the north-west

as we head further into next week,

but for the most part, it looks like it should be turning drier

after the potential for some heavy and thundery showers.

It'll also turn a bit cooler and fresher,

but the question is, and the uncertainty is,

how quickly is all this change going to come about?

At the moment, computer models don't particularly agree.

We're hoping for some sort of consensus over the next few days.