14/06/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

The weather over the next week or so

fits the billing of early summer conditions,

particularly as far as temperatures are concerned.

They're going to be either at,

or if not, a little bit above average for the time of year.

Leeds a good place to look at, centre of the country.

Notice how the temperatures change for the rest of this week.

Warmest on Wednesday,

a little brief dip into something fresher for the end of the working

week before those temperatures rise again by the weekend.

The warmth that comes on Wednesday is because we've got a big deep area

of low pressure out in the Atlantic, and that's starting to drag up

as it gets closer, warm air towards our shores.

A general southerly air flow on Wednesday, a bit breezy across the

Highlands and Islands of Scotland,

a few spots of rain or drizzle here.

Vast majority dry, but as temperatures lift,

isolated showers, Wales, the Midlands,

eastern Scotland, but most will avoid them.

Sunny spells, clearest skies to the south and east.

We could hit 26 or 27 in the south-east corner,

even eastern parts of Scotland achieving

20 or 21 Celsius.

We're not going to get to the levels they're experiencing

across other parts of Western Europe.

These are some of the temperatures

we'll see on Wednesday afternoon.

That warmth is trying to push towards us,

but what happens through Wednesday night,

it gets shoved out of the way.

This is the feature responsible - it's a cold front, a weakening one,

but it does bring some rain and breezy conditions through the

night and into Thursday for Northern Ireland,

and by the time daylight arrives on Thursday morning, the west of

Scotland and western Wales

could be seeing a little bit of rain as well.

Overall the temperatures to take us into Thursday will be on

the mild if not muggy side, with most in the mid, if not high, teens.

We start with cloud and patchy rain in the west.

That works its way eastwards.

Warming up quite quickly across East Anglia and the south-east,

but it will feel fresher here

later in the day after a cloudier spell.

That Atlantic air wins through,

a bit blustery for many into the afternoon,

and we'll see showers affect parts of Scotland and Northern

Ireland, and maybe later parts of north-west England.

But out there in the sunshine, it's still strong sunshine, it'll

still feel pleasant even if it is cooler than it was on Wednesday.

We continue with that run of air

coming in off the Atlantic as we go into Friday.

High pressure to the south, low pressure to the north,

weather fronts in between, and that does mean a bit more cloud on

Friday, particularly across western areas, patchy rain and drizzle.

A blustery day, best of the brighter breaks to the south and east,

where, like Thursday, temperatures could get into the low 20s.

And then into the weekend - well,

we see a more substantial area of low pressure sweep by

the far north of Scotland, so it could be windy for a time,

Friday night into Saturday morning,

more substantial rain in the far north, but other than that,

a bit more cloud in the west,

a few spots of rain or drizzle by the end of the day,

but for the south and east things starting to warm up once again,

with more in the way of sunny weather around.

The change for Sunday, it's really mostly in the wind speed.

It eases down a bit.

We'll still see some rain or drizzle across north-western parts of

the UK, with more sunshine to the south and east.

Temperatures by this stage in the high 20s.

So this is the set of the jetstream for the weekend, it's roughly

across us, that gives us that bit of a north-west, south-east split.

But it looks like into next week it buckles to the north once again,

helping high pressure to build.

The position of that high pressure could be crucial.

If it nudges further eastwards we could start to drag in warmer

air off the continent once again.

And whilst it is only a very low probability at this stage, there

are a few computer models signalling some spots could get

over 30 degrees next week.

It's only a low probability,

it does look there will be a lot of dry weather for a time,

but later next week the Atlantic air is set to win through.

The question of when that goes through and fresher air

returns is still one we need to tackle, because the computer models

differing at the timing of that at the moment.

And we'll keep you updated over the coming days.