04/07/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


04/07/2017

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Hello. You don't hear so much about the jet stream at this time of year.

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That's because it's not as strong as it is in the winter,

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when it thrives off a strong thermal gradient

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between cold air to the north of us and warmer air in the tropics.

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That gradient is there at this time of year, but it is not as strong.

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The jet stream isn't as strong.

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This is how it looks this week,

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it's prone to meandering, not doing very much.

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And look at this, it's splitting this week.

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One portion is going to the north and another is diving to the south.

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This, though, is important.

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This circulation here near Spain, it's a cut-off low-pressure,

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one which isn't moving very much with the flow,

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it's hanging around for a few days.

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But it is going to impact our weather,

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because around it it's going to push warmer, more humid air our way

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with a potential for some thundery downpours later this week,

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as we'll see in just a moment.

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Let's start off, though,

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with how Tuesday's weather is shaping up.

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And we do have a weather front around

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and a weather system bringing some rain to Northern Ireland,

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parts of Scotland and northern England.

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And not just as Tuesday begins, but for much of the day.

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So quite a cool, soggy day for Northern Ireland,

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through southern Scotland, into the Central Belt

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and northern counties of northern England,

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from Lancashire across to North Yorkshire.

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South of that, a few showers, but sunny spells developing.

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Quite a range of temperatures,

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from as high as 25 in central London

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to maybe just 13 degrees if you are in the rainy zone

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here in southern Scotland.

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Now, this weather front is still hanging around for Wednesday,

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but there isn't much in the way of rain left on it.

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Still a lot of cloud in the same areas that saw the rain on Tuesday.

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By Wednesday, maybe some spots of light rain and drizzle,

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but just not as wet.

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Sunny spells in northern Scotland,

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but notice, blue sky and sunshine for more of England and Wales,

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allowing temperatures to edge up further.

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This is the warmth and humidity starting to build.

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And look at that, some spots will be getting close to 30 Celsius

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once again in that sunshine.

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But the area of low pressure, that cut-off low,

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begins to show its hand more by Thursday.

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There is some moisture around that, warmth and humidity,

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and you get some thunderstorms breaking out

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initially towards the south-west of the UK on Thursday

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and then pushing gradually northwards,

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where it is still a bit warmer, just not as warm as it is to the south.

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Although temperatures may be pegged down a little bit

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because there's more cloud around and those storms breaking out.

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That system pulls away to the east during Friday.

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We're in between weather systems on Friday.

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A lot of dry weather around.

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Still a chance of catching a few heavy showers, mind you.

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And there's still some heat to be had,

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particularly across south-eastern parts of the UK.

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But as we go from Friday into the weekend,

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this cold front is important, pushing through.

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And the jet stream becoming a little bit more of a combined feature

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after that split earlier in the week,

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allowing Atlantic air to come through,

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so it's going to be a bit cooler and fresher over the weekend.

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But with low pressure close by, it looks fairly unsettled

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with either some rain or showers around

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and the breeze picking up, as well.

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Now, going into next week,

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it looks like a more typical weather pattern for the summer.

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High pressure, the Azores high

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beginning to build in across southern parts of the UK.

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Low pressure sticking around close to the north-west.

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So a range of weather in this more typical summer pattern

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for the UK into next week.

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And it looks like being, with the position of these pressure systems,

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a north-west/south-east split.

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As a result, parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, northern England

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will see some of the windiest, wettest weather,

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though it's not going to be a wash-out.

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It's not going to be unsettled all the time.

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But it will be drier and relatively warmer

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across south-eastern parts of the UK.

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But even here, a few weather systems could move through

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from time to time.

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That's how it's looking.

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